This is getting scary | Australian property market update

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Financial disclaimer: I am not your financial advisor and the opinions I share in this video are purely my opinions. This is not to be considered personal advice as it is general in nature.

[@Elizabeth-hf2bg]

Its worse here, our economy is like a flailing fish, fighting for its life. The normal state of the U.S. economy is actually very bad. Because of this it goes into convulsive spasms fighting to grow any way it can out of desperation. Tricks, gimmicks, rule changes try to stimulate the economy and prevent it from falling but they only bring temporary relief to people since, when you factor in inflation we are declining.

[@Laura-tx4pj]

People believe their currency has the worth it does because they have no other option. Even in a hyperinflationary environment, individuals must continue to use their hyperinflationary currency since they likely have minimal access to other currencies or gold/silver coins.

[@Margaret-tf5ty]

Inflation is gradually going to become part of us and due to that fact any money you keep in cash or in a low-interest account declines in value each year. Investing is the only way to make your money grow and unless you have an exceptionally high income, investing is the only way most people will ever have enough money to retire.

[@Ruth-sl5mx]

I've tried investing in the stock market several times but always got discouraged by fluctuations of stock value. I would be happy if you could advise me based on how you went about yours, as I am ready to go the passive income path.!!

[@Margaret-tf5ty]

Angela Lynn Schilling is her name. She is regarded as a genius in her area and works for Empower Financial Services. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.

[@Ruth-sl5mx]

I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an email shortly.

[@rohanhall-dq9ij]

When will it fall, I'd say never.. Looking back in history it's very rarely fallen to any significant amount, so it's not ever going to given current circumstances..

[@zenmachine50]

Mortgage stress is everywhere. People must be getting close to their limits I'd say. Property is expensive. So let's look at this from a purely economic perspective ...the higher the price, the lower the return ... agreed? so if you buy now you will be buying at the very top of the cycle so buy now, but do so knowing full well you will not make money...

[@airbnbwollongong3468]

It did take a few years of high interest rates to trigger the 2008 collapse.. So might have a few more years of high prices.. I'm not in any rush to buy back in

[@zenmachine50]

@@airbnbwollongong3468 good! don't listen to this spruiker.

[@mrwolsy3696]

Young people yes, they have time to spare, older 1st home buyers are screwed.

[@rohanhall-dq9ij]

Property prices are going nowhere but up.. So enjoy the ride everyone..

[@trythis2821]

@@airbnbwollongong3468 Immigrants and foreign investors. Property prices not likely to go down. If you can afford to buy will be well worth it.

[@RealEstateRankerApp]

Pretty interesting, it does seem like there's always the talk of collapse. I know we've had downturns before but it feels like the only thing that is really going to bring prices down is more supply, or something very wild in terms of interest rates - somehow though the prices defy the logic of the latter though. Ultimately, we are all going to need a place to live, but we're not all going to be thinking specifically of investment, some buying choices are made based on quality of life considerations regarding the property and it's livability. Nothing wrong with investing, but if you're buying for your family home there's an certain amount of the "picking a winner" approach you can ignore. Find the place that matches your needs, within the price you can afford (assuming you're lucky enough for those two to align).

[@andrewsmith2404]

Great video, informative and without the mainstream media hype, thanks.

[@michaelbananas461]

Housing has been turned into a financial asset in australia and afforded every possible artificial boost to create a positive feedback for government revenues. Problem is that, like a ponzi, it gets harder with time to make gains and when the input exceeds the revenues, the downturn is especially ugly. Like all ponzi schemes, you gotta get in at the ground floor, usually when it looks like the worst investment possible. Right now, every possible factor you can imagine points to auatralian housing being a terrible investment, literally only propped up by a government which is now seeing their inputs far outweigh revenues, and investors wishing for capital gains and accepted losses in the short term. You couldnt possibly choose a worst investment based on the fundamentals. If you bought in the first few years of the housing ponzi, youre set, if you purchased in the middle, youre fine, but if you purchase at the end, youre the one who jumps out skyscrapers. Its how the business cycle goes...and worse, Australia has avoided 2 big busts, because now the housing market isnt just complacent, it hasnt faced the needed corrections to remind investment that an asset needs more than "expected capital gains". So when the crash finally happens, the capitulation moment is really really ugly.

[@michaellim4795]

I cant see property falling. Theres no point buying a home to live in if it does. Often after adding interest the cost to purchase a home is way more than renting. Only value with pruchasing is if your house goss up too

[@vinnishbaby7222]

Thank you Nero for another good vedio

[@tristanblair5155]

Just stick with the 18.5 year real estate cycle if you brought property back around from 2010 then you are laughing , and if you are thinking of selling then wait for this next leg up for the last few years of this 18.5 cycle

[@AlienwareXable]

I know many families are struggling with even very good jobs they are looking for extra work to just survive ..... the cost of living plus the mortgage is a nightmare for them

[@A_007_W]

With less approvals and less builders left, wouldn't it be logical for material costs to fall as a result? If not why? If so how much could materials fall? What's keeping material costs so high?

[@manuhamoa]

comes back to the laws of demand and supply

[@CineTechGeek]

actually yes and no. we need to force the land bankers to start selling the land they have. they sit on it to make sure they only allow enough availability to maintain the Hugh prices. so yes supply and demand. we have the supply we just need to have it released to the market. but then again if that happened prices would full considerably.. so that's why it's not happening. government needs to put new regulation in place to force release or forfight. that would bring a lot more houses onto the market quicker but also lower the price of land considerably. that would make up for more costs of building a home.

[@ian7033-qj9wg]

Perth market is on fire, low stock getting lower, nearly all homes are being sold for higher than asking price. But its just the the start because Perth has a perfect storm, still playing catchup to the eastern states when the border was closed so didnt see the price rises everywhere else during covid and a low build rate. Now migration is pushing it, builders going broke, materials rising in price , shortage of labour. Not even in the middle of the boom yet. We are going to see another 30 percent this year I reckon as stock dwindles..

[@shelby6622]

Gooo you good thing gooo. Got a block in Dawesville that I'm yet to build on. Gonna give owner/builder a go.

[@vmura]

Holes and Houses

[@grant6464]

Excepting the entire Economy is going to collapse and deflation is coming and is not mentioned here. Due to the inflation no one can afford to pay bills. The USA is collapsing - printing money to prop up this election year which is very important. Americans are not paying there credit cards and cars are getting repossessed in huge numbers and depression is coming before or just after the US election.

[@CineTechGeek]

we are on the edge of a world wide synchronous recession. shares will fall considerably. this will reduce the buying power even more. then, once this happens, the government will turn down immigration to a trickle. as to climb out of a recession cannot be done if your piling more and more people into the country. that has only made it technically not a recession. but in real terms we have been in a per capita recession 3 x 1/4's. we all feel it. it's crap. and due to this immigration pretend and extent behavior by the government trying to kick the can down the road, it's going to be even more painful. once in recession and immigration turned of. we will see a significant drop in housing as. pure and simply houses must reduce to meet the actual price level that people can afford. that's how raising interest rates is suppose to stop inflation. so the market, once all these artificial policies keeping housing boyant goes away. will likely spring back considerably to meet trend level. abut 40% lower but at most I would expect 20-30 drop over the next 2 years once the shit hits the fan. but then again the government is likely to.try and artificially keep.it boyant as that gets votes. but at some point you have to take your medicine. houses need to go back to the mean or we will never be competitive in Australia compared to the rest of the world. I.e in Australia we pay 1.5mil for a house and have wages to allow that while overseas they pay 500k and have a much lower wage. we simply will never compete, no jobs apart from digging holes. this has to change for the sake of our children.

[@trythis2821]

Albo and slowing immigration down. That is like trying to mix oil and water.

[@CineTechGeek]

albo is a politician. when a significant number of constituency/voters don't want it. it stops it's what being a politician and staying a politician is about. he lied about bringing it down and turned it to the max. causing a rental crisis. I can tell you when the election approaches it will go down. it has to as whoever brings it down gets elected. keeping it up, labour's hoped they could skate the beginning of the recession past the next election. that's not going to happen. pull back in spending, as a small business person, is huge. more than I have ever seen. I don't see any way out of it now.

[@ian7033-qj9wg]

Delusional. Its currently cheaper to buy an established average home than to build one, thats a main driver and not going to change anytime soon..

[@CineTechGeek]

@@ian7033-qj9wg Really. Please do your homework. Example, it is well know that builders of high rise building do limited releases of apartments. This is to ensure they do not oversupply, causing a large compression in the sale prices of the apartments. That makes sense right. The same happens on all land released for building. Large builders buy it all up and only release it to market at a rate that ensures supply is squeezed to ensure prices never go down. So yes in some ways houses have a tend to never to down, but its because we don't have enough being released to the market. It is large builders/LandBankers (This expression exists for a reason) that are looking to maintain profits. So even if the gov releases land, it does not mean it will actually make it to the market. All this talk about we don't build enough is "Bullshit" as this dynamic IS the reason lands is released to the market and the speed of that release. If it was released faster, it would cause the intrinsic value of all houses to lower as LAND is the main value of a house. So a $800k land value with a 500k house is 1.3million. But if the land is 400k, its now only worth 900k for the same place. Do your homework, it's available, Studies have been done on this dynamic. It's just not what the "industry" wants you to know. But yes, it is all supply and demand based. There are plenty of ways housing access should be made easier, it's just NOT as the bulk of voters don't want their houses to go down in value. The problem is. Long term, this is a disaster for Australia and our children who will have to live in the mess we leave behind. As the younger generation becomes a larger mass of the voting public, this will all be turned on its head as politicians will have to bring in these policies if they hope to be elected. As usual, its all about when its going to happen is the trick. (Just with the stock market) But we can say with a high degree of accuracy, this issue will be a major topic at the next election. So it is starting.

[@shelby6622]

@@ian7033-qj9wg You sure about that? I bought a block in Dawesville for only $178,000. Owner/builder will cost me $200,000. Cheapest established 4 by 2 there as of today is $639,000.

[@noongar1234]

Its just not sustainable

[@dh7899]

Knowing other major cities are ahead of us, we know it is more than sustainable. The house price vs non-detached dwelling price ratio is only 2x in Sydney. Try to buy a house inside New York or Tokyo. Wait you cannot. It just does not exist. Sydney will transition to apartments / units and houses will just keep rising non-stop. Land gets more valuable as the land gets denser. I am sorry, it is just math.