This Metric Found the Best WR Targets in Fantasy

[@DomainFantasyFootball]

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[@calebguidry3059]

This might be the best video yall have dropped yet. Feel like this is really helpful for dynasty as well for player tiers

[@GrahamHammerton-eo3ix]

Awesome analysis, really enjoy in-depth stuff like this, thanks

[@DomainFantasyFootball]

thanks, appreciate it!

[@JimboSliice_]

I think a more accurate depiction of TD dependency would be to calculate what percentage of their points came from TDs, rather than if they scored a TD that week

[@DomainFantasyFootball]

thats the traditional way of calculating TD dependency, so yes agree. the scope of this research was really centered around dud weeks so we kept it as weeks with a TD for that.

[@kingrex1931]

It's pretty nonsensical to look at TDs as a bad thing. Some guys just score a lot of TDs. For example Mike Evans has scored 13+ TDs in three of the last four years.

[@therealfranklin7675]

I appreciate hearing these statistics but i think the one who regresses heavily this year on that Texans team is Diggs. Just look at the preseason game they just played. Tank will be the WR1 on that offense by the end of the year. in my opinion. Although i do agree that Tank relies heavily on touchdowns i don’t see touchdowns being a problem this year. If anything i view diggs being on the field as a distraction to get tank more open.

[@ikelove88]

Bruh and people also forget Stroud asked for Dell in the draft, and they also are best friends. I would take Dell out of all the Texans WRs.

[@harrisonking4417]

I totally agree in games that both Nico and tank played together tank had a higher target share and ppg. Tank only scored 7 tds last year for them to say he’s due for td regression is wild. Tanks route tree and win rate as a rookie was also exceptional and if it continues to get better there’s no reason he won’t be the wr1 in that offense

[@ikelove88]

@harrisonking4417 I definitely agree. Man I swear people say things for content 🤣🤣. They always leave out the variables for reasons to justify their reasons. I'm 100% sure tank would of beat out Collins if he didn't sustain that injury.

[@harrisonking4417]

@@ikelove88right stats are good but you have to take in all those other variables and look at all of it combined. People who are purely just using these stats are just looking for clicks😂. But hey I’m fine with people just watching these videos more value for me in my drafts 😂😂

[@FoolisH409]

If you have been keeping up with Texans training camp you might think otherwise. The other thing is this, Nico and Diggs will be on the field more than Dell, Dell will be on the field when they run 3 wr sets.

[@Thoughtpologetics]

I think Evan’s is just such a safe pick, only 3 times in 10 years has he scored 6 or less TDs, only failed to hit 70 receptions twice and never been under 1000 yards… But he’s bout to be 31… but dude is one of my top targets for a WR 2… Even at the low end of like 70 or so catches and a little over 1000 yards and just 7 TDs… puts him at WR 23, 24, when compared to WR standings last year… but if he hits around 1100 yrds and 9 TDs… thats top 15 range ESPN has him projected 15 and Fantasy pros has him projected 10, I just think he has the safest floor and great ceiling, he just is getting old, and that’s the scary part

[@Pkilla80]

Baker Mayfield, age 31, new offense coordinator. I see regression but he's definitely a great player. Always underrated in the past.

[@Thoughtpologetics]

@@Pkilla80 he put up the 2nd most TDs of his career and 3rd most yardage of his career with Baker in his 10 years of playing D hop and Kennan Allen are older and they did fine last year, Kupp and Adam’s are the same age… I do think the age thing is the only factor though, and that’s on the injury side of things As for the new OC… that’s an upgrade, the guy gained tutelage under Sean McVey, worked with Baker in LA and wants to implement that motion style that has been so successful for teams recently

[@madballerskillz5378]

I feel like you guys didn’t bring up how lots of these situations have changed For example: For Jamarr Chase he didn’t have burrow for a VERY long period of time last year and when burrow did play he was playing through injury Jordan Addison: He no longer has Kirk cousins and Justin Jefferson was injured for half of the year

[@DomainFantasyFootball]

it was baked into the analysis - thats why Addison was listed as a clear regression candidate, and why we mentioned Chase as being worthy of being a top 5 pick in fantasy drafts. agree its important though

[@madballerskillz5378]

@@DomainFantasyFootball ok 👍

[@bcop9674]

Before signup I wanted to verify if you have Redraft Superflex (2QB) rankings? I see Dynasty but isn’t there some differences there? Really enjoying the data-driven content!

[@DomainFantasyFootball]

We currently do not have Superflex Redraft ranking on the site. We're happy to help you with any questions you may have regarding that format though!

[@professork8476]

Hey maybe I missed it but what category did you guys have Drake London in? I couldn’t find him

[@DomainFantasyFootball]

we filtered to include top 24 WRs from last year. video with London analysis coming later this week!

[@professork8476]

@@DomainFantasyFootball sounds good, can’t wait

[@bigshagg3815]

Interesting... good work, guys 💪

[@DomainFantasyFootball]

thanks!

[@GreggCarlson-ku7di]

Kupp was hurt last year and played through it. He's the healthiest he's been in two years. You won't be able to double team him this year with Nakua, Robinson, and the sleeper 6th round pick, Jordan Whittington who will make noise. If Kupp stays healthy, I see 1300 yards and 10 TD's. He's 31 but he's in great shape. I like Dell to have a great year even with Diggs arriving. Deebo will good if Aiyuk leaves.

[@5setsOf47]

Thank you gents

[@DJ-jf8ts]

Nice data analysis on this one boys. I wonder how Deebo factors in with Ayuk probably leaving, and CMC banged up.

[@DomainFantasyFootball]

thats going to get interesting.

[@teecee4459]

Nice presentation, but I'm almost never taking a #2 receiver over a #1 receiver

[@DomainFantasyFootball]

thanks! which players are you referring to specifically?

[@teecee4459]

@@DomainFantasyFootball waddle, who I think is really good, I know he battled through injuries last yr, I drafted a ton of him rookie season but not since. I'd just rather have a #1.

[@DomainFantasyFootball]

Interesting - hes going over about a dozen WR1s in most fantasy drafts, so thats a pretty hot take. Id easily take him over guys like Christian Kirk, Terry McLaurin, JaLynn Polk, Courtland Sutton, DHop/Ridley, etc

[@bcop9674]

Just double checking here…does the Jefferson rating hold true even with Darnold?!??!

[@DomainFantasyFootball]

Absolutely. It held with Mullens and Hall last season. He had no issue producing then, he'll have no issue now!

[@kingrex1931]

How does Garrett Wilson make the "Elite Safety" category when he was only a WR1 6% of the time? Wilson also had a 41% dud week, meaning that he will bust more than 4 times out of 10. I would also argue against him "not needing TDs to produce" because once you remove the dud weeks, he needed a TD to avoid a dud week half the time, and that was with massive volume (4th in targets overall, but 8nnd in receiving TDs). Rather than saying "He doesn't need TDs to produce" you could say that "he is unable to produce TDs". I could see if he were being drafted as a WR2, but he is the 7th or 8th WR off the board. You are practically drafting a guy that will not meet his ADP according to these stats. Michael Pittman belongs the "Elite Safety" category far more than Garrett Wilson. All the "High Floor" guys and the "Consistency" guys were better than Garrett across the board. It's also interesting that you don't consider the situation for George Pickens while making the "It's the QB" argument for Wilson. Pickens gets upgraded QB play and the number one target competitor removed from his offense. Assuming that the Steelers don't trade for Aiyuk, Pickens will be far better this year. The Jets have had a long list of failures at QB, but we are to assume that it is the QB and not the Jets. Even though we saw both Geno Smith and Joe Flacco both be successful after leaving the Jets. We also need to assume that Aaron Rodgers returns to MVP form even though he was showing signs of regression two years ago, he's over 40 years old and he is coming back from a major injury. We also have to assume that Garrett Wilson is the same as a future Hall of fame WR in Davante Adams. That is a whole lot of assumptions that have to go right for a guy that is going in the first round as the 8th WR overall. I think I'll take Pickens at his ADP four plus rounds later over Garrett Wilson, who is the riskiest pick in the first round.

[@DillGibran]

What does it say about Christian Kirk? didnt see him

[@riolaper]

Agree with most but Pickens is a head scratcher for me. Vegas odds is predicting he has a pretty good season, yet hes not expensive in drafts

[@FoolisH409]

He will do good because of lack of competition on his team brother, that team is pretty condensed I believe him and Najee would be the players to pick from the Steelers.

[@princeofs0ul1]

⁠@@FoolisH409bro Pickens is about to go crazy this year yall will see

[@zooom4337]

I want y'all to review my trade I did earlier it was Justin Jefferson/chase brown And I received 2 2025 first round picks and Jonathan Taylor it's a 2 qb super flex full ppr opinions?

[@dustinbridges6831]

This year is rough. McC had a huge work load last year and is already showing soft tissue injuries, Robinson and Hall have the talent but haven’t balled out before, Taylor is on the decline, Lamb and chase haven’t been in camp or practice all year, Jefferson lost his QB, Gibbs, Wilson, Adams, and Henry are all old, hurt, or havnt done it. Hill is the only one that seems good to go in the top 10ish range.

[@cameronkestner3759]

What site do you use to gather this data?

[@DomainFantasyFootball]

Our research team collected this. The raw data, you can get from anywhere - TDs & top 12/24/36 production. The rates, dud%, and calculations were all our research team though.

[@JasonMickelson-g2w]

Thoughts... would you trade Jonathan taylor and a 2025 2nd, for 2025 and 2026 1st, all picks projected mid to late with current roster set up

[@Mar88cus]

Maybe

[@kennyyingling1627]

I’m in WR choice hell. 3WR 1flex. MHjr, DK, Kirk, Rice, Flowers, Pickens and Hollywood. Eeek.

[@Pkilla80]

We also take into account SOS, QB play, oline, ect. These numbers aren't going to really help anyone in any way as there are way too many variables. DK has a new Offense coordinator. That could change things substantially either direction for him.

[@DomainFantasyFootball]

agree - context is important. with DK i mean hes going to do what he always does, hes so consistent

[@wolfman4562]

Thoughts on me trading Geroge Pickens and Chase Brown for Monty and Worthy?

[@hashslingingslasher2613]

Who’s better at pick 8 ja mar jj or aj brown ?

[@Pkilla80]

Jamar is a top 3 wr. Aj is top 10

[@jasond3169]

Thought it was really funny that you guys posted a video and not even a few minutes later JJ McCarthy got news about a surgery. That must be a kick in the groin. Also, the blueprint is not working for me. Can you help?

[@DomainFantasyFootball]

Not sure how the JJM news hurt anything. We weren't expecting him to start anytime soon. Tag us on discord, we're happy to help you with the BP!

[@eag8999]

@@DomainFantasyFootballJJ has to drop below Breece and probs Bijan after that news.

[@frankcarlson9640]

Tank dell did all that and he wasn’t even a full time starter and he’s gonna regress lol I doubt it and he scores because he’s wide open every single time, look at the first downs per target he’s elite

[@DomainFantasyFootball]

you seem upset

[@ikelove88]

Out of all those Texans WRs, I would take Dell. Just know a lot of people won't give Dell any credit and leave out pertinent information to boost their narrative. I wouldn't pay it any mind. For 1, nobody knows how the fantasy season is going to go. Everyone has different opinions. People also forget that Stroud asked for Dell in the draft, and they are best friends as well. Remember that year Kupp and Stafford was always out to lunch together in 2021 😂. Kupp was Elite that year!!

[@ikelove88]

Also, remember Mahomes asked for Rashee Rice in the Draft, and he turned out just fine.

[@harrisonking4417]

@@DomainFantasyFootballwhen tank and Nico were on the field at the same time tank led in target percentage and ppg. I think your data is skewed on tank and sometimes you can’t just rely on data you need to watch the film. Tank only played in 11 games last year 2 of which he left with injury. So his dud percentage should really be lower if you take that into consideration. And if you watch the film you would notice that tanks route tree for a rookie wr was great and his win rate was also great. Diggs in my opinion has already regressed he’s going into his age 31 season and in the second half of last year on a top 5 offense struggled to be productive. Tank will also play more than diggs as he can play outside were diggs is more of a slot receiver with one of the highest slot rates in the NFL last year.

[@ZCost]

Jayden Reeds numbers are just wrong, he was a top 36 receiver 11 weeks and had TDs in 8/11 of those weeks (73%). He is one of the biggest regression candidates out there.

[@DomainFantasyFootball]

youre right - after some checking, we only included games where a player played over 50% of the snaps. most of the time this was to make sure we didnt include injured games, but Reed had games with less than 50% where he was scoring touchdowns. which is an outlier, that normally doesnt happen for these top 36 PPG WRs, but in this case it skewed the data. he should have been included as a regression candidate.

[@ZCost]

@@DomainFantasyFootball that WR room is impossible to chart lol, looking at the preseason snaps the guy who had the least amount of snaps with the 1s rips a 65 yard TD on his only snap😂

[@batmandelicious1088]

Davante Adams getting taken in the second round but barely being in the safety area?

[@DomainFantasyFootball]

dude is top 5 in targets

[@batmandelicious1088]

Now that’s facts

[@seancalhoun7752]

Taking Chase isn’t about his metrics. Do you trust Burrow? When they play together Chase is insane.

[@DomainFantasyFootball]

yep exactly - which is why even though his numbers here were shaky, hes still a smash draft in the first

[@jagriffin1]

When I see 41% dud I also think “elite”

[@DomainFantasyFootball]

context is important, dude was being thrown to by statues. numbers dont tell the entire story

[@unclephill2048]

I traded Deebo to get kupp in my 10 man redraft i regret it now

[@DomainFantasyFootball]

could end up working out though

[@Sinapz218]

41% to dud and considered safe? WTF

[@hayzmi]

Godwin not invited?

[@DomainFantasyFootball]

these were the top 24 WRs in PPG last year.

[@gamezmlm6865]

GET THESE DUDES TO 10K subs for the draft guide 😂😂😂 🔥🔥 Go Go Go!!!

[@drunkenrobinson3218]

Anybody who watched this, do yourself a favor and never apply this information. What a waste of time

[@DomainFantasyFootball]

what didn't you like about it?

[@frankcarlson9640]

These guys are still wet behind the ears they don’t know ball , there isn’t any mathematical explanation of the way players score your either elite or your not and you nerds can try to break them down but ultimately you will be wrong 100% of the time

[@DomainFantasyFootball]

calling us young because you're clearly butt hurt about our takes is such a lazy cop out. disagree with us and prove us wrong with facts, otherwise youre just whining