This Stock Market Rally is Delusional! with Michael Oliver

[@WTFinancepodcast]

Do you agree that this current increase is delusional?

[@KK-qc5ct]

Yes delusional but market doesn't care.

[@WTFinancepodcast]

@@KK-qc5ct Very true, I am personal still net long despite agreeing with Michael (while stock picking individual companies)

[@Michaeldotcom33]

Yes. Everything is pointing to a recession but who knows how far stocks will go. Could go down a little or a lot. I’m out of stocks and waiting to see what happens while earning risk free 5%

[@haldriver1378]

I'm 60% tech stocks and 40% tulip coins because I'm a genius. Of course, I'm getting old and goofy so maybe I'm just confused. Maybe I only have TBills. 😎

[@honorkemp]

controlling the 10 year t bill at all costs

[@aaronsullivan1628]

This fella’s on the mark, not talking smack like so many others. He speaks to the FED buying in the dark. That’s it in a nutshell.

[@thecitchannel2856]

This fairly-good analysis does not take into account the *criminal* factor, making it flawed.

[@bernadofelix]

I feel investors should be focusing on under-the-radar stocks, and considering the current rollercoaster nature of the stock market, Because 35% of my $270k portfolio comprises of plummeting stocks which were once revered and i don't know where to go here out of devastation.

[@bpb5541]

Buy 1 month Treasuries at over 5%. That is over 10k a month you will be making with almost no risk. Staying in the stock market now is crazy IMO. Don't be greedy with what you have made. Everything is going to fall... even the out of favor stocks are going to fall even further. The only thing that might do okay is Staple stocks and I think even those will struggle. If you can make 10k a month ... in a year your account will be 120k higher than it is now. Look at it that way. 120k is pretty damn good.

[@Miakate-f3l]

Safest approach i feel to tackle it is to diversify investments. By spreading investments across different asset classes, like bonds, real estate, and international stocks, they can reduce the impact of a market meltdown

[@KarenLavia]

It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.

[@ScottKindle-bk3hx]

Mind if I ask you to recommend this particular coach you using their service/

[@KarenLavia]

My CFA ’Margaret Johnson Arndt’ , a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.

[@johnmorelli3775]

Michael Oliver is terrific!

[@MinuteMan76]

Agreed!

[@Mark-ef7pi]

He discounts the effects of CDO valuations in 2008 when comparing to 2024. That aside, I think he's mostly right on the rest, I also think the FED & it's members do a lot more to the market than just Treasuries in the aftermath of 1999 deregulatory policies that render them omnipotent over the market - which, in turn, could crush shorts who trade fundamentals. Think of the "FED PUT"

[@codyleekelly]

Thanks for the interview, I enjoyed it, very insite full.

[@jasondillon2567]

Appreciate this very insightful analysis!

[@smithbrady6173]

Very good, Michael is very insightful. I also think 24 will be interesting . Thanks so much !

[@ivivivir]

Michael is really insightful.

[@RobertojavierSilvaharth-ub3pz]

You have got to be kidding; he's being diplomatic. No one can come out and what's on their mind today. Noone...

[@nixer65]

What’s missing from this is that the Fed isn’t going to be able to control the short end this time. Once the repo facility is drained (which will happen sometime in the next 90 days) then the 6M is going to resume the uptrend as Yellen is expanding borrowing at the very short end (bills). The supply/demand dynamic is going to break things in a very big way - the yield curve is going to invert like you’ve never seen before until there is intervention by the Fed and The Treasury. Their challenge is that printing isn’t going to help - we’re not short of cash in the environment, the US is short of lenders.

[@RobertojavierSilvaharth-ub3pz]

Strewth mate, strewth!! We're up the proverbial creek without a paddle, and it smells...

[@aone7640]

Thanks for the missing piece of information. Now who will be the unlucky dummy they send to the slammer that will take the fall. My guess is some guy with a hard to pronounce last name from a foreign country that’s in the middle of nowhere

[@bpb5541]

@@aone7640You're funny. The GFC had very few people go to jail. They did not lose their money and they only went to jail for a very short time. Crappy people have no problem going to jail for a year if they are millionaires on the other side.... even if it causes massive pain and suffering. The real issue this time is that the Government caused what is coming. They did that by bailouts, QE, and free money. What are we going to do, put our government in jail? Maybe have a civil war? There is a reason why the government made "homeland security" and bought up all the small arms for years. They are not worried about foreign ... they are worried about domestic.

[@msims6054]

thanks for the interview. Michael giving clean, understandable perspective

[@rickschucker9697]

You do a great job as moderator, you don’t interrupt and you let your guest talk so we actually learn something.

[@ykhov]

He's not wrong. The market is wrong. 😅😅😅

[@ai7783]

So buy small cap?

[@wiblin701]

Who do you think farted at the end of the clip. Vote A for Anthony and M for Michael. 😂

[@EMan-cu5zo]

Nothing wrong with buying stocks currently as long as you have no problem getting rid of them without really thinking about it. Might as well ride the wave.

[@clarencehoover6748]

Treasuries are far from safe. Just ask Russia and all of the struggling banks that stuffed their portfolios with them. A sovereign bond is an exchange of current issue “IOU nothings” for a promise of future issuance of “IOU nothings” (with reduced purchasing power, even after yield is considered) from a bankrupt corporation. If that’s not bad enough, your Treasury holdings can effectively be defaulted on if you fall out of favor by the regime and Uncle Sam slams you with sanctions or if a social credit scheme deems that you are naughty. Now is the time to reduce as much counter-party risk as possible and be a contrarian, not try to pick up dimes in front of a steamroller.

[@Tim_in_Australia]

Goodness me. We can't predict the future.

[@foumar5217]

MO is constantly bullish on the PMs. How many times did he predict silver at 30$ by year end?

[@RoissyAngel]

Is this another gold bug advertorial?

[@ykhov]

Gold bugs love pain. GOLD still under $2000 with unprecedented high inflation and 31 trillion of debt. Same price as 15 years ago.😂

[@Gabber44906]

What will happen to treasuries?

[@WTFinancepodcast]

What do you think? Seems as if yields could continue to decrease

[@JohnTaylor-ts8wk]

Interesting interview. Funny how I agree on a number of his positions here, yet I still think its weird to say that the Fed is somehow scared of the long bond rates rising. Powell has been trying to sound hawkish about “higher for longer” for a long time now, he still says more rate hikes are on the table, and he is doing QT. His concern hasn’t been that the 10 year hit 5%, but that it’s still below his fed funds rate. When Powell wants rates to go down, we’ll know. He’ll talk about economic trouble and cut the fed funds rate back down. This point doesn’t matter for the investment thesis, I just think it makes his case better if he skips the “terrified Fed” bit and goes straight to the debt levels being too high to sustain these rates.

[@AllThingsFunny77]

Hurry up n buy

[@brianwhitehawker1756]

I was advised to diversify my portfolio among several assets such as stocks and bonds since this can protect my portfolio for retirement of about $150k. I want to know: Do I keep contributing to my portfolio in these unstable markets, or do I look into alternative sectors?

[@yeslahykcim]

The stock market rally is still in force, but the major indexes, sectors and especially leading stocks are prone to reversals. I recommend you seek the guidance a broker or financial advisor.

[@andersonedward787]

I agree, having a brokerage advisor for investing is genius! Amidst the financial crisis in 2008, I was really having investing nightmare prior touching base with a advisor. In a nutshell, i've accrued over $2m with the help of my advisor from an initial $350k investment.

[@lucaswilliams9992]

@andersonedward787 impressive gains! how can I get your advisor please, if you dont mind me asking? I could really use a help as of now

[@andersonedward787]

I'm being guided by “Leila Simoes Pinto’’ who is widely recognized for her competence and expertise in the financial market. She has a thorough understanding of portfolio diversification and is regarded as an authority in this field.

[@geraldt331]

I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.

[@Barr894]

How is a stock market rally delusional with all the bond market manipulation they did a few weeks ago. Why do you think bond yields and the dollar are dropping. When bond yields drop, equities go up. Common sense. That’s what’s happening. Yes, it won’t last, because once that effect is over in about eight months, inflation will get ugly, and this time they will reverse what they just did and dump all their bonds they just bought, causing yields to spike, catching everyone off guard. For now, expect a stock market rally and Santa rally. And expect everyone to say the economy is great when it’s weak. We have stagflation, which has been masked with the bond market auction - which was manipulated.

[@bpb5541]

If we are not at the top we are very close.

[@fernmoss-456]

This guy is A+

[@MartinJG100]

24:09, he said with absolute conviction .....:)

[@Vagabor123]

Theres a new video by felix that shows the fed is supporting. Bs

[@georgedoolittle9015]

Hyperinflation again so expect US equities to double over the next 6 Months. Long $unp Union Pacific Railroad strong buy

[@RobertojavierSilvaharth-ub3pz]

So now staying off the low is considered a rally; talk about relaxing standards. Talk about conning people...

[@rodneybarington4483]

Finally someone with a brain, this always happens, drop rate markets go down over time, it's just that simple time and time again.

[@dannypowers4995]

As long as the m2 money supply remains at 20 trillion dollars the stocks will go higher and so will inflation. To much money chasing assets always raises prices. 😅

[@gianmariamalmesi4133]

Did Mr. Oliver really looked at Citi and BOFA charts? Go and look with your eyes, don't blindly believe someone who probably has a big conflict of interest

[@mas7230]

Nothing but massive short covering is this "rally".

[@chrisk1903]

Repo facility has no more legs in Q1 2024 so all planets aligning

[@rohitchandravanshi9170]

This guy looks like Michael Caine, he's gonna save us like the batman

[@matthewsmith2362]

lol interstellar

[@brent0708]

It’s all about a “store of value”. Institutions and private investors are storing cash in the big 7 stocks or bitcoin. Stock market won’t crash until these same investors start moving money to the US Bond market for protection. Investors dont trust their money in Treasuries or banks.

[@theonlyconstantischange123]

I like this thesis a lot. And the longer the fiscal impulse the more resilient the economy and the more the passive flows keep rolling in

[@markweaks2239]

Michael, do you think the investment bank owned corporations on the stock market (all of them) will see their stock prices rise as the investment banks buy more stocks? Also, what percentage of Blue Chips and Industrials are owned by individuals compared to the banks? Thanks.

[@David-yn7wl]

Qqq going down big

[@jeanpaul4100]

I disagree. The markets rocketed in 1930 to 33 despite the great depression. Markets going contrary to what we think they should do is normal, even expected. Don't predict. React.

[@jaycezeniuk2506]

Great comment

[@Michael-0000]

From 1929 to mid 1932 the S & P was down a lot.

[@bryanemerzian9478]

He was right but for some miraculous happening Citibank was trading 38.50 two weeks ago today it is 45.50 how does that happen unless the Fed came in

[@randyosborne3971]

Congress is for sale. On the take. And Congress mandates the Federal Reserve. What could go wrong ?

[@markweaks2239]

Ha "Congress is for sale." Ha. Sold decades ago.

[@chalanan]

The market's rally is a pure short squeeze as hedge/mutual funds were net short betting a recession this quarter would send the equity markets into a crash, now being force to cover much higher. Next year when the US economy joins the world economies into a recession markets will crash IMO.

[@hurlentropy6866]

Quite rare to have such major crashes so few years apart like 2020, 2022, and 2024? That would be a first in the history books

[@nixer65]

@@hurlentropy6866Records are there to be broken

[@Yetified_Mayhem]

CTAs switched short to long. Hege funds did their tax selling already and have to catch up and window dress EOY. Every rally starts w/ short covering. The key factor in health of the rally will be its breadth, which has turned good so far.

[@The-Capitalist]

2024 will be a dark year for equities.

[@sglaser001]

I have nearly gone insane watching the market continue to go up. It is defying the gravity of a 4-5% 10 year treasury. The equity risk premium is down to 100pbs. Nonsense

[@adamkarimian7137]

More doom and gloom

[@The-Capitalist]

Every economic indicator says we are already in a recession. It takes time for the curve to uninvert.

[@RichardWarner-df7dz]

Maybe. But I’ll Sell Before long.

[@randolphr5074]

D Hunter melt up

[@guy7018]

I'm shorting all overpriced fomo stocks and incrementally swing trading deep value to try to average in at a bottom on stocks that are down big and will recover massively.

[@hurlentropy6866]

There's a lot of shorties in small caps and fintech. Many of which are undervalued lol

[@lancemairs4956]

When inflation is rising and they cut rates and spend that will continue now until sovereign debt collapse and complete economic destruction, hyper inflation, reset. This is the last cycled for the dollar.

[@hkmorhsi]

This guy is a goldmine

[@rnegoro1]

Markets are never always rational.

[@mbican]

Exponential increase in US debt inevitably leads to USD debasement. Hold USD only if you don't mind losing purchasing power. Measuring your portfolio in USD is fools errand

[@drajdew1664]

Gold bug 😂

[@nohopeequalsnofear3242]

"We got fooled....again"

[@banginghats2]

All markets, stocks, bonds, derivatives, currencies and commodities, are massively manipulated, as is the mainstream financial media, which is completely biased to give the Fed narrative. On top of this, young traders have never experienced a really big crash, like 2008, and have literally made a living on automatically 'buying the dip' which has worked for them in such a manipulated market. On top of this, trading algos are written by young people who have also not experienced a big crash. With high frequency trading there is no human experience or human judgement, instinct or nous (common sense), in REAL TIME, to check the sanity of trades, let alone a longer term view of fundamentals rather than chartist analysis (which can happen in milliseconds, minutes, hours or days). It will take an almighty crash to break the spell of 'buy the dip'.

[@willhamilton9235]

Buy Bitcoin