Threat Assessment: A Brief Examination | Magic: the Gathering Commander

Some thoughts about the EDH conversation that never dies.
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[@onajewilliams3007]

*Plays Hapatra.* "Oh, he's making snakes" *Plays Yawgmoth.* "Oh...he's making snakes..."

[@robertwood1689]

Lmao it's black I never trust them snakus

[@irbricksceo]

Never forget the most important part of threat analysis. Convincing the table that it isn't you!

[@CYBERHOTS555]

kzbin.info/door/vTsAzlGNC3e9EfFBBQ8iiA

[@davidhansen5067]

I see a lot of KZbin Threat Assessment in Commander Clash comments, and I think it's worth noting that sometimes, the viewer actually has information that the players don't, which affects that assessment in a huge way too.

[@Niuttuc]

(For context, in the case of Commander Clash, viewers can see the hands of all players at all time, while the players can only see their own)

[@davidhansen5067]

@@Niuttuc The man himself! Thanks, probably should have clarified myself.

[@captainreadingabook]

One thing I've learned is the importance of considering player personalities when evaluating threats. If I declare someone the arch enemy and they have a tendency to target people in revenge, I'm going to keep my mouth shut. I don't want to get targeted, so I'll just wait until I have an answer to the threat and can quickly knock them out of the game.

[@dwpetrak]

You can get around that by talking about them like they are the scary guy you don't want to cross. Like, "Daaang! You really have some strong stuff happening over there! Oh man, I can't stand up against that! I hope someone else has something they can do or it's game over!" Stroke their ego a bit while commenting indirectly about how scary they are. Hold back your best stuff a bit then whn someone starts to answer them you can play in to your strengths. Alternatively, I like to say how two people have their engines running and me (and maybe another player) are really just watching the big guns! It says you see how strong they are, points them at an enemy and id's you and maybe another player as weak and non-threatening.

[@vengray8055]

​@@dwpetrak That is a nice sneaky way to say the same thing. Definitely better than straight up saying one guy is the arch enemy. Good tactic but depending on the player they could still feel like that is worth some revenge. Player personality is big on those words and choices.

[@dwpetrak]

@@vengray8055 Thank you and I agree. Nuance is key in those situations and sometimes there is nothing you can do, but subtle communication is a bigger life saver than a Teferi's Protection (may they all spontaneously combust). Pro tip: if you get friendly conversation going from shuffle through the end of the game it calms/ relaxes people and your hints are less likely to draw ire. It takes practice, but table-talk is the most powerful tool in a game and it has let my janky-A builds win far more games than my decks deserve.

[@allisonchristie2754]

​@@dwpetrak This is usually why I lose games because the way I deck build I usually end up doing some big spectacular thing that scares the whole table but would take a few turns to really have an impact so I get taken down and then the person just kind of waiting in the shadows not doing much comes out after people spent all their resources dealing with me to take out the table at once. I'm not good at the whole "laying low" strategy, lol.

[@dwpetrak]

@@allisonchristie2754 And I thank you for your service! lol That is similar to why my Demon tribal deck loses. People just see all my creatures are 5/5 to 9/9 flampling demons then people get scared and hate me out. I probably should add some lower power "smoke screen" cards to the ol' battlecruiser.

[@sheahon1179]

I love watching some poor fool get called out for not watching the video! I saw that video and Baby Lasagna is just scary impressive no matter what budget every time I see it. This kind of meta knowledge and spiral fractal thought patterns video is always cool to watch. It is good to make me think, even if it makes my head hurt sometimes.

[@GFreeGamer]

I'm lucky cos I play in a pod that is very familiar with each other. We've learned to respect when others are calm about situations. It helps that after a game, we generally chat about our threat assessments and what we had hidden in our hand over drinks.

[@brianray3956]

I super love these videos. The number of times I've gone from "REALLY?!?!" to being like "Ooooooooooooh okay now I get it" has happened to me more times than I care to admit and it's so sooooooo helpful to get these kinds of insights into why that happens to me and how I can fix that.

[@CYBERHOTS555]

kzbin.info/door/vTsAzlGNC3e9EfFBBQ8iiA

[@balonius]

I always enjoy how well spoken and particular you are with the words you choose to use.

[@vasylpark2149]

I've also been in games where someone goes, "hey that's a threat please someone deal with it," the other two go "I'm not worried," and a turn or 2 later and oops they won with obvious threat that was obvious.

[@natvMan]

I enjoyed this, we can all get better at threat assessment. In games people ask why I didn’t play a card earlier. Being familiar with your one deck is big. You know when you can hold them, and when to deploy your removal. Keep up the good work EDHREC crew!

[@Sakkyun]

I needed this, next time I’ll think about it a bit more before pointing out threats

[@redbirdriot]

"You sure the blue player won the game?" As a blue player, I can attest, I never win the game.

[@Suhrvivor]

I've never actually won with my mono-blue deck, I either die first or they scoop because my board-state and my hand is so far ahead they can't possibly comeback.

[@arcanearcher13]

Kill the blue player first is rule number 1

[@bobby45825]

And D) by not telling him, you technically wiped a player out, so it's a win/win/win in that specific scenario you presented.

[@Rahzeil]

This is great stuff. I've definitely met people who NEED to see this video.

[@normative]

“Why didn’t you tell me before I scooped?” Because… then the combo player might not have attacked, in which case you’d still be stuck facing someone with a “make infinite creature tokens” engine on board?

[@vengray8055]

Yup, real dumb question

[@Shadow298]

So many great & valid points in this video. Shared it with my play groups because so many people I know (even myself) get caught up on specific things too often, missing the bigger picture or something more obvious from a distance. But I am the player who sits quietly building doing things, misdirecting things so I can win my way, so often do take advantage of other player's poor assessment of things. though I'll always be 100% honest when asked if what I am doing is lethal or dangerous for everyone.

[@vengray8055]

Everyone has to learn in there own ways. Losing to the quiet guy in the corner is a good way to learn.

[@mtgsus]

Sometimes people just make rushed decisions. I had a game once where someone locked the board with darksteel forge and nev disk and 3 opponents scooped up (5 player game). As soon as my turn began, the nev disk was activated but I countered the ability and I won before the other players where done reshuffling 😂

[@ClexYoshi]

this is a very good discussion to be had because goodness knows threat assessment is something that I'm probably not the greatest at, and at the same time I've let salt dictate when I think threat assessment was not great in a situation. I apologize when that comes up, or at least I try to. the story about Joey's friend scooping in response to infinite Zealous Conscripts tokens is a prime example of why I make it clear that at my table, we scoop at sorcery speed, much like how the command zone does it.

[@voltcorp]

Your story of the iconic "problem for you" queen reminded me of the Christmas episode of LRR's Elder Dragon Social Club. Wheeler pointed out a huge threat from Serge to Ben, who could deal with it, and Ben immediately told Serge basically "I won't destroy it if it won't come for me until Wheeler's dead". 😂💀

[@Yontanian]

and this is why it's not always helpful to remove threats too early. You might need player A to defeat player b. so you can then defeat player A.

[@MonkeyGone2Heaven650]

Love how you used Batwing Brume as an example. Love that card lol.

[@travisbrandt8663]

Thank you Joey for everything you do. 🥰 love videos like this. Preach

[@xayidegreymind5782]

The biggest problem I tend to have with threat assessment at my lgs is most players tend to "since I can't deal with threat ill kick the player who is down so I can get something done"

[@kirodos]

As someone who is either the archenemy or the one who is down I feel this. Especially if I just one a game and am now playing a different deck that isn't working as intended they will throw stuff at me and ignore the actual threat in the new game.

[@jasonholmes5714]

Yeah, I’ve seen this. I vividly remember a game where player A was ahead and couldn’t be attacked into; meanwhile, player B had a huge offense that couldn’t be deployed against the opponent doing the most-so they just clowned the other players at the table until they were dead. (I was one of those dead.)

[@CYBERHOTS555]

kzbin.info/door/vTsAzlGNC3e9EfFBBQ8iiA

[@markbrierley6367]

I enjoyed your point about people having views on what is or isn't scary. It's very optimistic. It doesn't directly mention skill level contributing to people actually misjudging threats even when pointed out or chaos players who just want to watch the world burn and it doesn't mention people just making mistakes. I know I make mistakes assessing threats sometimes. My most embarrassing story is a game we still talk about at my LGS when a guy Oko'd an Urza that was helming a monoU bounce deck, had stumbled on mana, and had only cast 6 spells the whole game when there was an Ur-dragon out with a Klauth. I blew up. When finally we got an answer about why he had done it he said, "it's a game and I don't care and maybe he won't target me now." Cut to two turns later: a free Fiery Emancipation and Old Gnawbone along with more than a full new grip of cards from the Ur-dragon deck, the Oko player still believed what he had done was the correct play as he and I died to that combat.

[@teradul2480]

As someone who plays Vaevictis Asmadi, there's also stuff that plays into threat assessment that doesn't relate at all to the cards being played. Before I deploy the boi in my games I'm always reiterating how I'm playing to make friends and big stuff happen, so if there is a card you don't want Vaevictis to hit when I swing you can just ask. And at that point, if Vaevictis is a card you feel threatened by because he can dismantle your value engine, you're basically wrong, because he can easily be aimed somewhere else. You could've not use your answers on Vaevictis and maybe even gotten something out of it by pointing out a juicy target on the other side of the table.

[@vengray8055]

Not everyone talks or makes deals at the table like that. I can totally see you blaming someone for not saying something lol. Good gimmick.

[@teradul2480]

@@vengray8055 @Ven Gray I'm not saying that every table is going to be having those kinds of deals, but that even the stuff that's not the game pieces themselves have influence on threat assessment. Just shared my own experience with it. Also, "blaming people for not speaking up" is a lot, and I'm sorry if it came out like that in the comment.

[@vengray8055]

​@@teradul2480 You're giving an explanation of how a game could go with your deck and how what could be perceived as a threat doesn't have to be with some negotiation or table talk. That's legit. It did not come across like you blamed people for not speaking up just seeing how someone could try that salty move lol. My bad. Good insight on your games and how things aren't as bad as they seem with some negotiation.

[@joshuaordonez1113]

Players act like cards in your hand deserve to be public knowledge the moment they're in a bind

[@NT_Escanor]

I think that the unique views of the table and perspectives is part of what makes commander interesting

[@EpicDinosaur862]

My play group sees a Llanowar Elves: Swords yo Plowshare. Sees a blightsteel: Shruggs it off.

[@joefjunior]

Love this. Thanks!

[@azazelmorningstar5631]

Something that always baffles me especially when dealing with stax pieces is people getting salty because I don't deal with them, like dude I have zero graveyard intetaction, I'm not enabling your reanimator deck, especially since you already killed me with it, that rest in peace is my friend right now

[@s.shadowwe3012]

Learned a lot in this video! This will be applied this weekend =D

[@aidanschauer1581]

Hey. Thanks. I am sometimes one of those KZbin guys. This was really insightful and resonated with me. I tip my hat to thee.

[@vengray8055]

"Why are you playing that?". In that context it was pure ego talk from that guy. He felt like an idiot for scooping and being wrong about who he predicted to win so to counterbalance that he tried to make you feel bad instead to throw the blame off his own stupidity. Classic salty ego talk. I hope you asked him a question to his question. "Why aren't you playing this card?".

[@QU67Reacher6]

I wanted to also emphasize the cards in hand/card draw point. I've started pointing that out in my games if people start talking about what's a problem. Like, yeah, the elfball deck can almost go off and make 20 tokens or something, but they're top decking with no on-board card draw. In that case, I try to say, "I don't think they're a big problem right now." That phrasing in and of itself also contributes to my opponents' threat assessment. They may think I have answers cause I have seven cards in hand and steady card draw, but I'm sitting here staring at late game finishers and mana flooded lands. They don't know that, but perception's a big part of playing. I'm still working on remembering that, and even more so I'm still working on not getting annoyed when people aren't dealing with the "biggest threat." Turns out, Magic's complicated.

[@Deviltrigger44]

It's true threat assessment is important and differently between a threat for you and a threat toward every one is important. Like one guy in our group have terrible threat assessment because I usually have a big board state threat while another guys have tiny threat that threats him personally because he has an answer to my my board or so he say, but I end up wining because he doesnt deal with me fast enough

[@TuMekeTimmeh]

great video, Joey! Thanks for being you

[@hanschristopherson8056]

Also sometimes players didn’t realize something was scary because they didn’t read it or because it was a new card to them and they didn’t understand how it worked

[@morrius0757]

I find that the biggest threats are card advantage, if a card is doing something the deck is specifically meant to do and it's doing it exceptionally, be afraid. That player is popping off and they're going to have the upper hand unless your starting hand and draws were nuts.

[@CYBERHOTS555]

kzbin.info/door/vTsAzlGNC3e9EfFBBQ8iiA

[@patrickchristiancheca4646]

Thank you so much for uploading this kind of video because it really helps a lot of cedh players specially for me who is starting to play cedh for only a year., I really learned a lot from this topic., Keep it up., Much love and respect 👍🙏❤️

[@mbell3024]

Amazing video, will be sharing with people!!

[@MrDegan2]

While I see your point at 5:48 I've also seen and been part of plenty of games where someone was declared a threat, another player thought they could handle it and thus didnt help. And then the declared threat proved to be to much for anyone to handle. It's a fine line to walk

[@thunderpup7899]

Love this.

[@Lucarioguild7]

The thing about cards in hand I think kinda gets at why I love Commander Clash so much, having those windows show what's in other people's hands besides the main point of view really helps you understand the game from every level plus leads to some funny moments of dramatic irony where we know what's in someone's hand but the people at the table don't.

[@psychozen7169]

Joe that beard is all the threat we need. Your pass the itchy scratchy scruff phase in to the long soft beard. I just never can get past the itchy scratchy phase and must shave it.

[@imanimason5858]

Great Video!!!

[@GrahamFoxDelta]

I will be saving this to send to the people that rage when the people view threats differently than they do.

[@DaveTheNoob]

Amazing video. Clear and consice points made, and delivered in a way everyone can understand! Videos like this are important for diving deeper into the philosophies of the game 😄🤟

[@matthews5692]

I think the best way to evaluate threats is just to evaluate the board state openly in game. Playing down the fact that we all don't know which cards can do what with what other pieces, etc. is worthless after just one turn of seeing how the engine operates when it is turned on even just a little bit. Take a moment at the start of a turn just to acknowledge what just happened after the last full rotation, which cards are doing what, who has the most mana available, cards in hand, etc. You can throw in a little shade hypothesizing about what cards are getting played next, who is getting swung at or what you liked or didn't like about it and see how players react to it. This gives you a little bit of subtle tells or hints about what other's plans are or see who's really wanting to strike a deal. Another important thing is just understanding the level of game you are playing in, what the turn zero conversations were like and who is actually living up to those expectations. Sometimes people just get lucky hands and become a problem very early, which isn't their fault and just rng. And most of the times they know it too. Probably the most important thing is to remember that it is just a game and, though some want to win more than others do, to keep it fun and light. If a threat assessment was bad explain your reasoning and apologize for it, then move on. Do your best to never make anything personal.

[@tonyrosetti2738]

Good stuff!

[@stoopidpursun8140]

I love getting into a game where someone is playing Kinnan and throws a fit because people instantly kill him the moment he hits the table.

[@Skeithalot]

Great content.

[@mofomiko]

Don't trust the group hugger

[@markbrierley6367]

Aw, but I always scoop to my last opponent

[@Pairsath]

two words: Well said!

[@Vangeltheunderdog]

In regard to threat assessment, there is another factor that the viewer absolutely cannot see, nor feel; that factor is assertiveness. If you have regulars at a card shop (or wherever you happen to gather frequently) and notice specific individuals who make you scratch your head as to how they are able to more consistently win by other players not picking apart their board and instead focus on each other, it can be because that player knows how to influence other people into misdirecting their perception of who the threat is. For instance, at my local game store, we have a regular who consistently has ~50% or higher win rate, not simply because he packs all the fast mana, but because he is very skilled at making people who don't know him yet make "poor" plays. He is able to convince them that someone else is the threat because of such and such reason and they will fall for it. The easiest way he convinces them is by bringing up life totals as an excuse to target someone else, for instance, he will have a massive board-state and a Mana Crypt/Ancient Tomb pinging him and people will beat the ever living crap out of my life total when I have basic lands and a small creature or something else minor, allowing him to outpace the table and cascade out of control. What will usually happen when our life totals all get low is that he'll convince them to blow up all of my blockers and knock me out of the game, then combo off and win on his turn after I'm knocked out. In short, people viewing from outside the game will not experience the pressure of a skilled individual's ability to misdirect the "perception" of threat levels; it's a whole other factor to consider.

[@nharviala]

This reminds me of a time my friends and I had a small series going. We spent $10 for online decks to play on MTGO, and would upgrade weekly with packs once the initial decks were built. I made Tayam, a deck I was intimately familiar with, and played Survival of the Fittest (40 cents online, woo!). My friend, who was not the strongest at threat assessment at the time, decided to leave it, despite the other two players saying this would end the game next turn, as I only had enough mana for one activation in response to removal, and they were right. I had several combos ready to pop the moment I untapped, and he still used his green removal on something more personally annoying for him. We've had to instill a better sense of threat removal into him since then.

[@patricksaville8672]

As an Oona player I leave the mono deck as her “food source”. I’ve played against a lot of Krenko decks and Oona can stand her own, especially with cabal coffers, deserted temple, and Urborg tomb lands out. Everyone’s looking at me to “deal” with Krenko, meanwhile I’m the one who doesn’t want them to die yet cuz I can manage their board and I get faeries from exiling pieces of their library because it’s mono red lol. But Krenko swings out and kills one player, said player yells at me, but then I tap out and exile the remaining Krenko library gaining 20+ faeries and then swing out next turn and kill the other player. Threat assessment is definitely about perspective.

[@christopherealy8025]

Remember my favorite rando moment at a card shop. One dude casts his atraxa, and he has a ton of proliferate targets. I removed his atraxa before the end step, and he tilted out and scooped, saying he wasn't even a threat. Little to do with actual threat assessment, since he was literally priming to win the game. just a funny thing that happens with rando pods of commander.

[@vengray8055]

Delicious tears of babby that doesn't like toy blown up. 1 white to remove target player from game is very cost effective.

[@deathshop2172]

goddamn, batwing brume seems pretty cool

[@gregboulton8230]

Excellent game!

[@egoish6762]

It's me, i'm the threat

[@Surberus1066]

My questions: Can someone win now? Can someone kill me now? Who is closest to those two previous questions? Who has the most cards in hand? Who has access to the most mana?

[@sef1326]

I loved your Batwing Brume example. I love that card and wish more people saw it. You highlighting it hopefully brought it into a bigger light.

[@tatsukinomiya]

AMAZING vid

[@felipeguidolin1055]

Regarding threat asses, i think my biggest level up moment was learning to fly under the radar. My best game ever was when I was playing Ayula vs Lathril vs Kalemne... I was being very careful to have less creatures than the elf deck, and have smaller creatures than the giant deck. If you would stop to count the power I was way ahead, but if you were only looking at how many creatures there were, or who had the biggest thing, you would not notice me.

[@jorisreichert5969]

Exactly, learning to fly under the radar is a level of strategy that many players are not properly aware of. It's also different per group, I have a playgroup that undervalues the mana capacities or cards in hand way too often, so waiting to deploy after a first boardwipe becomes a very strong strategy at that table.

[@Onattamato]

I think those sorts of comments boil down more to desperately needing validation and wanting to sound smart as opposed to any earnest attempt to critique.

[@infernotitan1158]

I was part of a game where I was assembling a few different engines, and suddenly he went from holding down a bit of the other decks to completely taking me out of the game. But I'd just dropped a key piece for my entire strategy without anyone making much of a note about it. It was a fantastic display of high-level threat assessment and I was honestly impressed by it.

[@karuptedninja2000]

My solution to threat assessment has been to always assume my opponents made the objective best move they had at a given point so I won't over extend or overstep what I can when politicking

[@hugmonger]

Joey failed to assess the threat of people being self-aggrandizing and ignoring what he said entirely in this video.

[@Andtherewasguitar]

In one of the most interesting games I played, I was playing a Kess control deck. My board looked like the weakest for most of the game so I was able to fly under the radar. One opponent just played 60 saproling tokens set to swing at people next turn. The U/G mill player who had us all on pretty low libraries exclaimed what a threat this token player was, asked to look through my graveyard, skipped through some board clears and asked me to specifically cast Blasphemous Act. Now, I could tell that that telegraphed he had a fog effect and wanted to have his threat dealt with for him as well as one sided board clear. What he didn't know was that I was holding a Rakdos Charm. So I instead made a deal with the token player that I'd not clear the board if he attacked my opponents first, holding up a counter spell for the fog which did come and always holding up mana for Rakdos Charm just in case the token player would betray me. Mr mill got taken out first. As soon as the second opponent was taken out of the game I cast Rakdos Charm at instant speed for 60+ damage for the win. Handy little spell. What's funny is that I even kept up my end of the deal - I never cleared the board.

[@mintspears6714]

I really get frustrated when people don't let things play out. I fully understand scooping when death will take a long time to rest solve and everyone agree to just start a new game. However I've had to give up free information alot of times because I had an answer on hand but the opponent just wanted everyone to scoop and because I insisted on playing it out, the opponent winning will use extra recourses against me that they may not have normally used before they thought I had something. Great video!

[@WorldCrafterCai1]

On the note of improper threat assessment due to knowledge, a lesson I learned a long time ago was don’t scoop until you are actually knocked out. I’ve been in games that were so spikey that it seemed certain that a player was going to win, then suddenly “noped” into being the down curve of a wave.

[@newnamesameperson397]

I like when other people call me out and say I have poor threat assessment. My reply is a threat for who? I'm not going to take care of a threat unless it hampers me. I remember one time I utter end an avacyn over a doubling season and the guy who owned the avacyn got into his feelings trying to claim the doubling season which has literally done nothing for three turns is the biggest threat because that guy had a planeswalker commander, nevermind that the planes walker player is mana screwed.

[@vengray8055]

Haha. He had to try. Annoying and satisfying to hear when they try that bs.

[@ThatTarkur]

I think in the end it all boils down to rule 0 discussions. I've been a victim too bad treat assesment on my end but I've also been stuck at tables with way more fine tuned/optimised decks than mine. Because I generally only build decks around what I myself figure out. Anyhow great vid

[@tko_5]

As a player that is on his first real year of playing Commander there are so many threats nowadays it is hard to assess who has combos and who has pieces on the board to win. One of the things I do because I think of Commander as more casual is I read my cards, and if we're having a really fun game I'll let them know I'm about to combo off. It's actually a lot more fun for everyone else. There are big cards that you do look out for and you do know obviously but with as many sets that are coming out there's going to be combos that you've never seen or heard of. I do whatever the table needs to have fun.

[@oelboy]

Funny. Just last weekend a buddy of mine got really angry at me for not seeing an Urza, Lord High Artificer deck with an Unwinding Clock on the table as a threat. But the Urza player had no cards in hand and I had multiple deathtouch blockers and a counterspell on my hand... 😅

[@vendaircharles1619]

Had this exact scenario play out yesterday. One game my angel of jubilation completely shut down another players combo and he was directing all his energy to remove it or me lol. Next game old school elephant norn was shutting down 2 players boards, I had removal but wouldn't use it because elephant didn't affect me. Leaving her on board allowed me to eventually win.😊

[@rynebillings2226]

Elephant Norn is the funniest autocorrect I've seen in a while. Hard agree with your comment too

[@MultiDAXDAX]

Don't know too much to avoid the Ego Don't know too little to avoid the Fear The Buddhist way to approach EDH (and everything else ;)

[@patonnight]

9:56 that is not extensive knowledge, that is just a toxic player. I'm sorry you had to go through that experience, people like that just ruin the fun at the table.

[@ozzysmith2571]

Hey my reply made it into an edhrec video!! Let's goooo

[@dougystyle79]

First, you'll never see me comment on Commander gameplay content regarding gameplay. It's almost like yelling at the TV when Sportsball is on. "The hell do I know? I'm not there playing the game." Peanut gallery tomfoolery aside, absolutely loved your video, Joey! At my LGS' Commander League, we have all experience levels of players, from those who bought their 1st pre-con and are wading the waters to the old farts like me that built a deck from a legend they found in the bottom of the pool. There are players that think they know everything and thus worry about everything, and there are some (like me) who know too much and try not to have a stroke thinking about it. If it happens... oh well, the combo popped... chalk that up to experience. But never scoop until your life total reads 0, take every opportunity you can to learn from an experience. Didn't mean to go all existential and inspiring there. I just wanted to compliment on your great work, not turn into a motivational poster found at a workplace's break room.

[@RuudAwakening]

Seeing handsizes in streams or spelltable or … would be a great contribute to engage with the going-ons of the game more

[@breyor1]

Rattle Snaking: attention pulling plays, cards. I had the unfortunate tendency to rattle snake, to the point I was default arch enemy. The frustrating part, was I’d build increasingly funny, and obscure decks that would be strong with a glaring weakness. My fav is Ghalta, you board wipe her, an she be struggling to get back, but if you didn’t she ran people over. I digress, threat assessment is a vexing topic for me, because I’ve been on the receiving end of “double suicide” plays that someone throws their game specifically to make sure I can’t even play. And when interrogated, simply reply “because I didn’t want you to win.” Which, is fair up until they sacrifice their own game, a thing I simply can not play around, because the number of potential threats to me multiplies exponentially if they don’t care about winning, just seeing me lose. I like my game knowledge and skill to be challenged, an a 3v1 tend to be very fun for me. However, it irks me when my personal threat assessment seems to be off when I’ve played mountain, pass, 3 turns in a row and then eat 2 stripmine an a counter spell on my meme commander. Then player C wins because they assembled their 11 mana combo without resistance

[@jackmarino8162]

People just don't take other factors into consideration. Magic is such a complex game, yet most players focus on one card at a time. You drop a Rhystic Study people just think card advantage. I see the Rhystic study, I start thinking about mana output. At some point the cards you draw are dead in hand as you just don't have the resources to play them. Other factors matter. Edit: The bird's eye view is so true. I play these bombs which are flashy and obviously bad for everyone, but it's all a Red herring for the knife in the other hand. For instance I play Kruphix Hydras. I have Simic Ascendancy in the deck as well as enough recursion to keep it. People waste removal or tutors in an attempt to stop me from winning. They just kind of ignore the 40/40 hydra that's just waiting for me to give it trample.

[@danielharrison2383]

the biggest problem i have with threat assessment is when you are being targeted into the ground by another player and EVERYONE else has no idea why. i have a fairly friendly group and sometimes other people join in. every now and again someone will just try to nuke a person into the ground that everyone agreed was not even remotely a threat.

[@benvictim]

100% agree. This is my biggest issue. I was playing a stasis deck, which to he fair can be annoying and mean. Over 10 turns in which I had 2 mana that whole time, he did 51 damage to me. Yeah I had some life gain, but he singled me out and focused me hard when I was doing nothing for turns on end. He lost to the Voltron player who everyone else said was a threat.

[@andrewpark78]

The cards in hand thing is huge. (Also why I get upset when people hide their hands in their laps or whatever but that’s a different topic). Also using body language and how much time they spend deciding as tells is very important which you don’t get in a video. Someone keep glancing at their hand every time you say move to combat? Probably has something. Someone sits there looking defeated off into the distance every time they say pass? Probably no interaction. There’s so much info besides the board state you need to take in that without the benefit in hindsight by being able to finish the video then judge, I’d be surprised if KZbin commentators were more accurate than random chance.

[@vengray8055]

Not everyone pays attention to tells as easily as others but everyone can pay attention to hand size which is HUGE. ALWAYS ASK ABOUT THOSE CARDS IN HAND. Especially when they hiding them ;).

[@Theizzy2265]

Recently in a game, I had a board with 8 charges Everflowing Chalice and a Skullclamp, among other stuff. One player then decided to remove my skullclamp, and the other players started to say "why won't you remove the chalice? He is ramping infinite". The answer was: "He has one card in hand. If I can't let him draw anything more, the ramp doesn't do anything". I find this episode funny because the player who targeted my skullclamp has more experience with mtg and card games in general than the other two, so he tend to have a more accurate game sense than just considering what's he is seeing in the table.

[@vengray8055]

@@Theizzy2265 That is a very experienced player. Those other 2 can learn something from him.

[@dude5556man]

This is exactly why, when i play The Gitrog Monster, everyone in the table shoots almost instantly to kill me.

[@Vrir16]

Had a similar gameplay experience. My buddy's scarab god wasn't mostly creatures whereas Strefan was leading my vampires with a large creature board state. So when Ruric Thar came out my buddy called it out and I just sat there and laughed quietly to myself

[@vengray8055]

Classic for you moment

[@redbirdriot]

I know, a second comment, but I really loved this episode. I'm certainly not the best strategic player out there, but I get really tired of the "discourse" about threat assessment for all of what you described here - people who have imperfect information pretending that they don't. Fwiw - I'm totally the player to try and convince everyone that something is a threat, even if it's just a threat to me ;) Politics is how I win.

[@vengray8055]

Playing with newbs is easy huh

[@MachiriReviews]

>be me >playing Bladewing >chillin, just setting up >opponent playing ghalta >ghalta guy already has ghalta out, and like 5 other gigantic dinosaurs >i play bury alive and bury anger and two utility dragons >table goes braindead, forget about freaking jurassic park right across from me and annihilate me right after I play it >ghalta guy annihilates them within the next couple turns I was literally the only person keeping the ghalta in check and burying Anger was like hitting them with a freaking discombobulation ray.

[@louis-charlesnadeau3447]

that said i SWEARRRRR that kiki-jiki just leads a mono red etb deck!

[@RobRuckus65]

I automatically treat Teysa and any form of elfball as high priority threats. Elves can go from a couple unassuming mana dorks to 20 20/20 tramplers in the blink of an eye.

[@ThePirateCommander]

Joey be honest, did part of your budget go into having five copies of Baba Lysaga? Were you holding back your true power that game?

[@takingchances7239]

I think a pretty important part of peoples threat assessment is also the history they've had against the deck. I have a satorou umezawa deck built to ninjitsu blightsteel and other huge threats as fast as possible. I played against a group that has another satorou deck but is legit ninjas and so their threat evaluation was way off when i had a unblockable creature and just searched for a card.

[@mitchstanek7809]

Idea for a video: how to subvert threat assessment. Like how do you sandbag either by your plays or while building your deck so that you don't draw the ire of the table.

[@venenuminauro]

I will never understand how my whole playgroup focus on my Mesmering Orb because I am "milling all their lands" instead of killing a Korvold when it ETB lol.

[@vengray8055]

You don't understand that some people hate mill more than anything else? Well I got news for you. Those people are out there and sound like they in your playgroup. Many people irrationally hate things they don't like.

[@azazelmorningstar5631]

As a fan of the orb it always amazed me how visceral is the people's response to it, they threat it almost like a blightsteel colossus, even though it's really doing nothing and most cards they mill are cards they weren't going to draw anyway (also they should have more lands if that's the problem)

[@RuudAwakening]

Thats kinda funny! Point them out that milling (unless tutoring to the top or scrying) changes 0 outcome. Decks are shuffled, draws are random, so is the mills. Thats it. If that doesnt hit their ability to relativize.. make a hobby out of it to play that 2mana artifact in every deck, have a good laugh at the cortisol you’re producing, and one day they might see that thingy never changed or won a game but something else (like that Korvold) did

[@vengray8055]

​@@RuudAwakening yeah you can talk all the science and logic you want that was explained on tg, reddit or whatever pod you listened to but people that hate mill more than anything won't be listening. Been there.

[@RuudAwakening]

@@vengray8055 than the options remains to laugh at it xD But I understand the atmosphere in EDH games needs to stay fun, even more when playing with your friends God speed man :)

[@Governorrr]

I am always the threat in my play group. I am either first out or I win. No in between.

[@garysalazar5279]

If I am not the threat then something went wrong

[@damnjekyll]

That dude from the comment section got an entire video dedicated to him, I'd say he bested you in battle tbh 😅 Jokes aside, great talking points 😉

[@calebbrown1068]

High time to watch this video after getting first my Stolen Strategy and then my Wand of Wonder blown up by an opponent, with a shared opponent’s Rhystic Study sitting on the table.

[@EvilM0nkeyRules]

Joey had to upload a solo video so Noone could steal his Segway spot xD

[@tulicloure]

Regarding the point that sometimes a player is only a threat to you, it's also valid to act like you don't know that and try to convince others that they are a threat to everyone. ;) Misdirection, bluffing and politics are important parts of the subject in-game, and "youtube comments" tend to miss on that.