Nassim Nicholas Taleb & Scott Patterson - How Traders Make Billions in The New Age of Crisis

[@timferriss]

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[@xXxRK0xXx]

AG1 is a pyramid scheme why are you promoting it? Serious question.

[@Eldon-l4d]

So nice to see Nassim in 4K instead of 144p (his favorite resolution).

[@GaminHasard]

HHhaha Made me laugh out loud.

[@nieljohn6768]

😂😂😂

[@benmaxinm]

Hhahahaahah

[@antarikshpatole]

😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

[@marvindube3572]

I don't get it

[@gegalla1]

Best interview i've seen with Nassim because Tim let him talk and listened.

[@yington]

Any proof

[@yington]

Which interview is that?

[@yrahmed]

Oh wow, I wasn’t expecting Nassim to show up to a podcast

[@Batman_akzo]

Exactly

[@SummaPlusANumberGrrr]

Been waiting for this one since Tim started podcasting!

[@yrahmed]

That’s so dope, I didn’t realize Nassim was was a fan of Tim. Especially since Nassim went hard on Lex wanting him on his podcast

[@Batman_akzo]

@@yrahmed Lex is a crook. He uses MITs name to look legitimate which is greatly exaggerated. Tim is a legit guy.

[@AlexD-qj9pe]

SAME

[@shiewhun1772]

Scot: "Nassim mentioned his contrarian nature" Nassim: *interjects* "It's not a contrarian nature, it's independence".

[@KenLongTortoise]

Chritopher Hitchens made the same point about his default stance

[@Alem_Mehari]

😆gotta love it

[@benmaxinm]

Haha. Well contrarian thinking implies you are going against the majority, independent thinking implies you think deeply for yourself but not necessarily going against majority. Happy to debate it of course :)

[@shiewhun1772]

This is an incredible podcast episode. I have seen podcasts where people come to discuss their books and ideas. But I don't think I have seen one like this. It is foundational thinking. The guests, the hosts, the subject matter - put together for a great episode so far. More like this, Tim.

[@963seeker]

Ferriss has an innate ability to make his guests feel at peace and really talk about their ideas. A very rare skill.

[@samirelzein1095]

Seeing Nassim living in his element here. Tells me he s in good company.

[@marcusmarcula]

Wow Tim didn't realize you shared so much history with Taleb. I just finished Chaos Kings a couple of days ago, and am now currently waiting on Mark's book Safe Havens. This was a pleasant surprise, as initially when I saw you had tweeted this out, I at first was skeptical because Nassim is very selective on who he interviews with, but I am so surprised and impressed with the level of detail and wisdom Nassim brings to the table as always, as there is never a boring interview or exchange between him. He adds even more depth and background to the story as well after having read the book. Thank you for having him, definitely a memorable and informative interview.

[@LelandWatson-f9q]

This is a fat tailed event, NNT on a podcast! The man's books have changed my life. Well done Tim.

[@GermanwithGerry]

What are the most important things you learned from him? And how do these ideas actually apply to real life? I'm genuinely interested as I only really got into taleb's work recently ...

[@lelandwatson4925]

His ideas can be extrapolated to just about any area of life which is partly why he's my favorite author. He taught me mental toughness, meaning and consequences of risk, understanding that the world is largely not comprehensive(and random), skin in the game, and how real learning comes about. This is just a generic list his incerto led me much further into discovery of his influences. And the ideas are quite intuitive and yet counterintuitive, bc he knows real winners must have scar tissue.

[@somjrgebn]

​@@GermanwithGerry As someone who has really dug into his work in relation to philosophy and complex, dynamical systems, what I'll say is his contributions to the concept of antifragility is very real. Is it at the level of Einstein, that's somewhat of a stretch. I'd place it more around the ballpark of David Graeber's deep dive into Bullsh** jobs, namely very foundational work that's incremental in nature. What you have to understand is Einstein, David, Graeber, etc., are intellectual thinkers. Most importantly, free thinkers. So when we say "so what, what can I do with this," it's coming from most of us who are very far from free. Nassim is part of the top investor class, who he himself has said benefits from lower class (we'll call it further down the antifragility ladder) people failing but still believing it's worth it. If you dig into his work and understand it, he refers to antifragility as what the system is at the expense of individuals being the most fragile. Nassim is at the top of the antifragility class at the expense of the lower, more fragile, class. He knows it, even says it in his books, and tries his best to help however he can knowing this. In essence, he gives very similar (arguably identical) suggestions as Fredrick Niechzte, Stoics, Jasper, maybe Camus to an extent. Even Niechzte said "what doesn't kill me makes me stronger," which is roughly the same as saying you're antifragile. The only difference is he's giving a different reason for the same answers: it's all random, the game is an illusion, so might as well be free. David Graeber's was basically: Majority of the economy is bullsh** and the solution is free thinking people. David and Taleb even mention concepts of UBI in their work, to not Crush people from too much fragility demanded by an antifragile system. Whether you read Nassim, David, Stoics, or Fredrick Niechzte, Camas, etc., they all gave the same final conclusion. The best life is as a free thinker and a free person. That's it.

[@somjrgebn]

​@@GermanwithGerry As someone who has really dug into his work in relation to philosophy and complex, dynamical systems, what I'll say is his contributions to the concept of antifragility is very real. Is it at the level of Einstein, that's somewhat of a stretch. I'd place it more around the ballpark of David Graeber's deep dive into Bullsh** jobs, namely very foundational work that's incremental in nature. What you have to understand is Einstein, David, Graeber, etc., are intellectual thinkers. Most importantly, free thinkers. So when we say "so what, what can I do with this," it's coming from most of us who are very far from free. Nassim is part of the top investor class, who he himself has said benefits from lower class (we'll call it further down the antifragility ladder) people failing but still believing it's worth it. If you dig into his work and understand it, he refers to antifragility as what the system is at the expense of individuals being the most fragile. Nassim is at the top of the antifragility class at the expense of the lower, more fragile, class. He knows it, even says it in his books, and tries his best to help however he can knowing this. In essence, he gives very similar (arguably identical) suggestions as Fredrick Niechzte, Stoics, Jasper, maybe Camus to an extent. Even Niechzte said "what doesn't kill me makes me stronger," which is roughly the same as saying you're antifragile. The only difference is he's giving a different reason for the same answers: it's all random, the game is an illusion, so might as well be free. David Graeber's was basically: Majority of the economy is bullsh** and the solution is free thinking people. David and Taleb even mention concepts of UBI in their work, to not Crush people from too much fragility demanded by an antifragile system. Whether you read Nassim, David, Stoics, or Fredrick Niechzte, Camas, etc., they all gave the same final conclusion. The best life is as a free thinker and a free person. That's it.

[@MarketStoic]

"If you have to panic, panic early. Panic NOW" - Nassim. Love it!

[@yington]

Who?

[@MrSharklet]

Nassim freaking Taleb Been waiting forever for this one with Tim

[@tungcaveusd]

Freaking?

[@ljragsandfeathers]

I’m a huge fan of Aquinas myself, Nassim! But sadly, not in the original. Wow. This was such an amazing discussion. Really appreciated the closeness and comraderie of Scott and Nicholas. Almost reading each other’s minds.

[@paulcnichols]

Tim Ferriss must be a real one to survive Nassim's legendary block list.

[@yington]

Is he though. Is he.

[@ganj0rm0n]

Nassim effing Taleb on the Tim Ferriss Show. How awesome is that.

[@claudius3980]

Bro ikr?!?!?! He doesn't do many podcasts

[@AzossAwwYea]

Mr dream guest

[@osidbitar8555]

I always thought he must've done a podcast with Tim over the years but it was never there when I searched it. Cool to see it finally happen.

[@siddharthyadav3699]

You know it when the OGs NNT and tim discuss options and hack, exploring their works was perhaps the biggest inflection point of my life.

[@gedewahyu.p]

agreed, changed my life forever!

[@ManuelDP95]

Omg this is such a treat. Love nassims work and it's so rare to find him a long format conversation like this.

[@warrenrox]

Best Nassim interview ever, and therefore one of the best podcasts ever. Thank you Tim 🙌🏼

[@ManuelDP95]

Agree, Nassims in such a long format conversation is a gem.

[@nikhilabi2230]

Never expected a podcast with Nassim

[@LukeB83]

"So people ask me how do i invest in tech startups... i tell them dont!" Tim giving the free financial advice right here...

[@mattdearman4244]

This is such a rare treat to come across. Thank you Mr Ferriss

[@brad-smith]

Step 1: Watch this video. Step 2: Contemplate career change. Step 3: Realize I'm better at watching videos. 😂 Great insights from the masters!

[@nishantchandra2876]

“Venture capitalists are rich on companies that never made a penny” true indeed

[@Porterfield11]

We’ve talked a lot about how the 2024 election might impact the markets. Has anyone made significant gains or losses in previous election years?

[@andbeyondd]

Since risk is at an all-time high right now, perhaps you should be a little more patient and return when it has decreased. Alternatively, you can consult a trained financial expert for strategy.

[@forpresfungi]

Oh, for sure. In 2016, I took a hit with tech stocks-lost about $70k in just a few weeks because I wasn’t prepared for the regulations that followed the election. But I did make around $85k by shifting into defense stocks, which surged after the election. It was a rollercoaster, but I didn’t have the right strategy going in. things got better when i employed the services of a CFA

[@VisioSynth]

Yeah, I've noticed a big dip in my portfolio too. It's been a rollercoaster ride these past few months. Please who is the advisor that guides you

[@forpresfungi]

Finding financial advisors like ‘Celia Kathleen Martel’ who can assist you would be a creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent money management will be essential to navigating them.

[@VisioSynth]

Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.

[@steveurquell3031]

You know the interviewer is solid when Nassim shows up on A PODCAST! Awesome talk guys, thanks.

[@abhayjoshi5588]

Great job by Tim to let the maestro speak.. there is so much to unpack.. get him once a year!

[@jamespier7801]

Taleb blithely says, “Don’t pollute” without ever mentioning the economic cost of “don’t pollute.” His legendary independence is a put-on.

[@MFJoneser]

Placing any import or weight on this guy’s ideas is dangerous. Intellectual inanity

[@litmus_test]

Read his books. He talks at length about economic cost of “don’t pollute”

[@pradeepkumaras8846]

You never miss two people - Naval & Nassim .....❤❤❤❤

[@McQuinTrix]

Nassimji's knowledge is so broad and amazing amazing!

[@DerMaxMaster]

Tim is just doing a great job. I love his way of leading the interview and his calm and positive attitude.

[@thefunexaminedlife1145]

"Robustness is when you care more about the few who like your work than the multitude who hates it (artists). Fragility is when you care more about the few who hate your work then the multitude who loves it (politicians)." Great quote. Thanks. What do you call it when someone cares more about the truth than whether or not anyone likes or hates their work? E.g. RFK

[@christopheroh.]

That would be authenticity, which I'm not pointing out in support of your example. I have no interest in KZbin comment rhetoric.

[@duncanmaclennan9624]

*Ive known artists who care more about the few who hate their work than the multitudes who love it

[@aarok2817]

Holy cow, I’ve read 4hww and non technical incerto, now TF interviews NNT!!! Edit: takeaway is to focus on my job and the things I’m good at, not get distracted by speculative investing… :)

[@canxida]

Thank you for posting this!

[@olivercarmack4515]

I loved Scott Patterson book. This came at a perfect time.

[@burningproblem]

Nassim! What an unexpected treat!

[@yrahmed]

45:40 oooh wee I wasn’t expecting Nassim to mention Al Ghazali. I can’t wait until Tim discovers the philosophy of the Sufi skeptics

[@Mihanik0]

Thank you so much Tim. For bringing such amazing personalities onto the show and into the wider view!

[@gabriel_augustob]

The best podcast ever

[@lifeisabadjoke5750]

Really

[@james2653]

NNT disagreeing with being called a contrarian made me chuckle

[@slofty]

Contrarianism is consonant with inconsistency, which he is not.

[@investingjim2801]

Taleb claims No Risk Studies on GMO @1:09:18. I would like to know which risk studies he has researched on vaccines, specifically Covid vaccines?

[@astronaft2]

He is a brilliant thinker. But maybe he didn't allow himself to think how vast big pharma manipulation and interferences are. Hence took those studies without criticism. Listening to Antifragile - it's infiltrated with "avoid iatrogenics, nature is robust, what humans do is not robust, avoid doctors whenever you can" message. Yet he rationalized mRNA use.

[@imadmoujahid3431]

It's always amazing to listen to The Great Nassim

[@wildmanmike100]

Ok. Tim is back. Seeing NNT made me feel like the first time I read 4HWW. Man 2005 was such a buzz.

[@rhclark6530]

Great discussion. Few people have influenced my worldview more than Nassim. I wish he would chime in on AGI and the Precautionary Principle.

[@jamessp500priceactionpage3]

I remember when Tim Ferris said he left Silicon Valley partially because it has the highest proportion of people who think they are smart. higheer interest rates will clear these guys out

[@elementred2359]

Tim finally doing the studio❤❤❤

[@chandanthakur5236]

I will save it to watch it slowly!

[@johnjuliusjamora]

Waited for this for years Now the next "I hope you get as a guess" for me is Mark Spitznagel

[@IsaacWendt]

Would have been interesting to get Telebs take on the vaccine and covid with the third option of ivermectin being a good safe alternative and also would have been interesting to hear his thoughts on the government completely lying about the origin and funding of the lab etc. Always a great interview anytime you get to hear Teleb talk.

[@TheNimblegeek]

Finally seeing/hearing Taleb in a podcast :)

[@subhranshudas8862]

Mr.Taleb in the house.

[@ReflectionOcean]

Key Insights: - Misinformation and conspiracy theories can lead to dangerous consequences, such as the rejection of vaccines. - The precautionary principle encourages the elimination of fragilities before pursuing anti-fragility. - Convexity and scalability are important factors to consider in various fields, including medicine and finance. - Investors should focus on their areas of expertise and avoid unnecessary risks. - The banking sector is relatively safe due to its utility-like nature, while the private equity sector is more fragile. Actionable Items: - Eliminate fragilities and focus on building anti-fragility in one's area of expertise. - Avoid engaging in trades or investments without proper knowledge and understanding. - Stay informed and critically evaluate information to avoid falling victim to misinformation. - Apply the precautionary principle when assessing risks and making decisions. - Consider the potential impact of scalability and convexity in various fields.

[@Reutzel507]

He is pro vaccine but not GMOs. His argument is about the spread and the science. He contradicted himself in on argument.

[@kippsguitar6539]

Yes I got it too, so disappointed

[@itsdilshod]

It's certainly easier for one to read Nassim than to listen to him.

[@sebwoz8766]

100% agreed. I am glad his audiobooks have a hired voice actor.

[@Learna_Hydralis]

He developed a non-smoking related throat cancer one time in his life and if you know him well he take the identity of an author not a speaker, not a presenter or anything else.

[@AKhan-oz9hw]

Wow. Great work. Love Tim Ferris’ work. Much appreciated 🙏

[@prashantyewale8343]

Antifragile is the most misused one, I agree as he said what doesn't kill you makes more stronger but what what kills doesn't make you stronger. To become antifragile you have to remove fragile first. If there is uncertainty with the pilot you don't fly.

[@TheTsxGuy87502]

Nietzsche also said something similar to Taleb about sceptics

[@hasnainabbas3442]

Tim Ferriss, I knew he would get NNT on his show one day. Ferriss called him cantankerous in naval podcast, but naval and Tim agree how much wisdom NNT has

[@troygallaty4361]

Would love Nassim to jump on the podcast circuit a true awesome thinker and doer of our time

[@jeffhicks8428]

Self evident why it's not the case. McLuhan, the medium is the message. This form caters to a culture of mass illiteracy. 2/3 of the US can't read on a 6th grade level, the average American reads on a 3rd grade level.

[@mattkelly5051]

Cool! Been waiting to hear Taleb on here since you started the podcast

[@quantumfizzics9265]

Nassim the goat 🐐

[@chrispresso1]

Amazing as always, thanks Tim!

[@baja3080]

What book are they talking about on the 18 minute mark??

[@swcpugilist]

Taleb is insanely brilliant

[@torpedospurs]

With the MRNA vaccines there was very little testing compared to the norm and they wer given to literally billions in the space of a year. I get it that at the time it might have been a solid decision to use them against the uncertainty being presented by the pandemic itself, but does it really qualify as non-fat-tail?

[@bradleygerdes138]

this was long awaited

[@bigdawg2566]

1:51:50 “It’s liberating to me to be able to write without having the narrative” Tim did that inspire you to write your next book ? Amazing podcast

[@peterkurth933]

Unbelievable , I just finished the black swan and waiting for fooled by randomness to arrive. Great minds

[@IlyaAvdeev]

YOU ARE THE BEST! JUST WOW!

[@claudeambrus6242]

“Unless you are a trader do not trade, unless you are a baker do not bake” (Nassim Taleb)

[@LivingProcess]

Brilliant as always

[@bleacherz7503]

I saw Tim at one of his earliest conferences , 2007 ish. He was insightful then as well

[@bleacherz7503]

So did I , in Northern Virginia

[@Victor-herman1971]

Covid broke taleb’s brain

[@kippsguitar6539]

Absolutely agree, so disappointed in his twaddle here, just nonsense

[@kevinkasimov651]

If you advocate for a vaccine on the basis that it will reduce transmission of a pathogen, then shouldn’t it actually do that? Not just be a therapy?

[@johns4412]

His understanding of these vaccines is dismal

[@kippsguitar6539]

I'm so disappointed one of my literary hero's talked such nonsense on the vaccine debate, history shows it was an enormous error fuelled by social media and corporate greed

[@polysaturated]

I was wondering about that too. If you still get Covid and add the risk of the vaccine on top you might be worse off, especially if you already had COVID and then got the jab.

[@zakwhite5159]

28:00 okay this answer makes sense but think about the second order here. Someone has to write the God damn contract. If we flipped a switch and suddenly everyone is looking to buy insurance for a tail event and no one is writing the contract you can't protect yourself. You might ask well if everyone is looking that's demand! Someone will service that demand they might or the price of tail risk insurance will rise to the point that it's not a profitable trade in the long run. Options and futures contracts have two sides they are zero sum for every winner there is a loser. No one has to write(sell) the contract even if everyone wants to buy them.

[@benhopkins674]

Tims the Goat

[@msftman1]

I admire Nasim a lot, enough to set aside his assessment of the Covid “vaccines.” I will certainly be employing the precautionary principle with respect to would be authoritarians the next time they take a bite at the apple.

[@parabob2359]

His assessment of covid vaccines is correct.

[@MFJoneser]

@@parabob2359lol

[@alexi2460]

Tractor rotortiller in Sonoma county, numerous wineries use roundup at the base of the vines. Scary sxxt

[@AlaskaJiuJitsu]

37:04 When I hear him say a billi has a dark side - as someone who has seen some of the most insane things imaginable - this scares me.

[@Memento-_-Mori-_-982]

NNT is so fascinating that he highjacked this podcast edition!

[@angkurrongpi]

The great Nassim Taleb

[@moneyballmoves]

What’s the thing with the Ferrari and the bike?

[@junal27]

Could please someone repeat the name of the first book the first invited talks about?, for a non English speaker to catch it is a challenge, thanks

[@valentinc100]

He said something about Romania ? :)

[@oneconsulting8431]

Goose bumps… Taleb the legend

[@socalled33]

Nah he's a triple vaccinated coward who bottled it during covid by taking the poison jabs, blocking all open debate on his Twitter about it too. Now in late 2023, it's overwhelmingly evident he made the wrong decision but he will never admit it, or worse, he's stubborn enough to actually believe he made the right choice. Here's a direct quote from this podcast: "Covid is a lot more dangerous than you think. And the vaccine is what made it tolerable." He actually believes that blatant lie. It was never any deadlier than the common flu and had a 99.9997% survival rate for anyone who wasn't already on death's door. He falls into the unfortunate, disgraceful camp of "I'm so glad I got the vaccine, otherwise it would have been much worse" but doesn't realise any illness he got was because of the vaccine itself.

[@catsnchaos]

I liked it. * the head nod indicating respect *

[@Geroscientist]

I think it probably speaks to Tim Ferriss as a person that Nassim Taleb would come on to his podcast. Taleb very rarely appears on podcasts...

[@EdArmGuitar]

I have already listened this twice!!! So much to learn. Amazing!!! Thanks Tim!

[@claudeambrus6242]

“What do not kill you make you stronger, but what kill you do not make you stronger” (Nassim Taleb)

[@BlokMonk]

It's been wonderful to witness tims intellectual growth

[@PolskiOfficial]

Man this is sick!!

[@dontrushtohate]

These guys make me at COVID

[@ViKrenelGlobal]

Who is this "head of civil service in Singapore" and "probably the smartest person I've ever met" NNT references at 22:39? Maybe someone know? Tried to google but no luck so far; Thought that maybe could find more on this person

[@adamx7526]

Anyone recognize the shoes Scott is wearing?

[@aanchaallllllll]

0:46: 📚 Scott and the other person met in the mid-2000s while Scott was a reporter at the Wall Street Journal and the other person's book was popular among hedge fund managers. 9:56: 📉 Universa provides constant protection for their clients by buying far out of the money put options to bet on a 20% decline in the S&P 500 in one month. 19:52: 📚 The video discusses a paper co-written by Nasim in January 2020 about COVID-19, which served as a warning about the virus and highlighted the need for extreme precautions. 29:12: 📉 The speaker discusses the problem of companies concentrating too much on one supplier in their supply chain, leading to issues when that supplier is affected. 38:33: 📚 The speaker discusses his contrarian nature and the importance of focusing on ideas rather than personal attributes. 48:37: 📚 The speaker discusses the concept of risk mitigation and applying ideas from Wall Street to other forms of risk management. 1:46:06: 📚 Studying options trading can be beneficial even if one never engages in it, as it provides a good understanding of the market. 58:01: 📊 The video discusses the concept of extremistan and fat tails in financial markets. 1:07:31: 🧬 Bill Gates discusses the risks and benefits of GMOs and vaccines. 1:17:04: 🌍 The speaker discusses the complexity of the climate issue and the need to consider non-linearity and convexity when making decisions. 1:26:51: 📈 The interconnectedness of financial markets and electronic trading increases the potential for rapid and widespread damage caused by negligence and bad risk-taking. 1:35:52: 🔥 Multiple small reactors are more dangerous than one large reactor when it comes to blow ups in the banking sector. 1:54:15: 📚 The speaker discusses the law of one price and the concept of arbitrage in relation to pricing. Recap by Tammy AI

[@elementred2359]

this looks amazing!!!!

[@erickhill4287]

I think the term metacrisis is more apt than polycrisis. Like Scott says, the sum is greater than the parts. It's a crisis of crises

[@amirh.h]

the only problem with nasim is that it is very hard to understand him, he sometime does not finish his sentence or does not pronounce the words fully. maybe it is just me. anyway very interesting guy

[@seaeagle758]

nassim taleb would make an excellent risk manager in a bank…but no more a philosopher than the average man down the pub…playing with stats and explaining convexity doesn’t imply either mathematical brilliance or philiosphical brilliance

[@DavidHowe-nv1nb]

Have you read his books? He's a real, modern-day philosopher.

[@seaeagle758]

@@DavidHowe-nv1nb lol

[@DavidHowe-nv1nb]

@@seaeagle758 that's all you've got? I wonder if you even read books at all.

[@slofty]

"I saw this guy on CNBC once so now I am qualified to critique his output without reading or understanding a word of its corpus."

[@thesquealingpartridges7285]

Such a good combination

[@ermalbino7715]

Nassim is a very mediterranean personality.