TLT and Fed Cuts, My take on the situation

[@slkttop]

I am curious. How did people find this video? From search for TLT? Recommended by a pal? Already subscribed to my sleepy channel about car projects and other random stuff?

[@s.lindland]

KZbin main page believe it or not

[@hirosato1548]

Good stuff. Do you follow anyone for the TLT play? Any downside risks you are aware of?

[@slkttop]

Game of Trades and Eurodollar will mention TLT, but like I said, I have not seen anyone just look at the historical charts and discuss this. Eurodollar is so in depth, its like watching a college lecture each installment. TLT, IF I am correct, and it is going up bc bond yields are going down, then draw a horizontal line and call it support and, if it were me, I would try to set a stop loss/limit somewhere above my entry price and just keep an eye on that support line. These drops in interest rates happen only a few times in a lifetime. If it's TMF, which I like to play, remember, that TMF doing 3X of TLT motion up is great, but if TLT and TMF start at a certain level on the same day, and TLT goes down and TMF goes down 3X, and then TLT goes back to that exact level, then TMF gets a bit degraded and does not quite get back to that same TMF level. So, be prepared, and don't stay on TMF in a down market. In a mostly up market, TMF will pay off, though.

[@BeardedDad91]

"Two stupid guys trade stocks" and even Meet Kevin have large TLT positions. Stock Moe as well. I have a large TMF position myself. I'm a little worried about a soft landing though. A soft landing might not be so good for TLT. I need the market to crash.

[@hirosato1548]

@@slkttop Thanks! So risks are: - fed stops cutting (pause or hike) which seems unlikely until at least spring next year if inflation rises. - soft landing and people don't flee to bonds? I noticed TLT didnt really respond to the rate cut immediately. I assume it happens over months or it was already priced in. My guess is that it will come if we get weak economic data that will increase likelihood of longer, deeper rate cutting cycle.

[@slkttop]

@@hirosato1548 This I agree with. Pricing in, might have been something I am getting schooled on for this round. (for the shorter term) For instance, this morning, bonds are getting their butt handed to them, I believe, bc of the LACK of any news this morning. While this morning, S&P stuff is flat. again, no news. I believe the U3 unemployment report is key in early October for up "or" down motion on bonds. The stonk market will play chicken with the U3. Greater Fools theory.

[@clementdalmaszappa7180]

i have the same charts in tmf and tlt same channels with an entry price around 59 i hope this goes according to plan haha got ATM calls on tlt exp in jan 2026 and a bunch of tmf stock

[@trent3727]

best ta ive ever seen

[@hyp3486]

TMF will never hit those highs again. It's a leveraged ETF so it will trend to zero over time.

[@slkttop]

I agree, and I encourage all of us to take a closer look at Support for TLT. And compare to Support for TMF overtime. I think we are going to find that there is share price degradation on TMF. It’s just like SQQQ. Or anyone of those short type leverage stocks it’s only good when the direction is in the direction you want.

[@m4xfl4xst4r]

huge fan of TMF TMV. unsung heroes.

[@slkttop]

yeah right? and notice how I point out the sudden spike in volume in the last year? That did not escape my eye.

[@RoySanchezJr]

Funny how I've only seen few see this obvious trade.

[@felipeoropeza4653]

I also agree with your analysis. The fact that the S&P is at all time highs is a big red flag. Nasdaq + BTC are not and they may be a leading indicator of weakness. I find it hard to believe everything is fine at the rate the Fed is reducing rates with up coming election. However it must be made clear the case for yields to continue to go down is only contingent upon inflation not becoming a problem again in the future. Which it probably is not.... but who knows

[@slkttop]

thanks for commenting! Which financial sources do you like? My fave right now is Eurodollar University. His take, as is mine is that the "inflation" we incurred was largely supply-side shock, and now, just plain price-gouging, and not runaway monetary or demand inflation. He also mentions the fact it takes around 18 months for Fed rates policy to eventually benefit the average person. So, rate cuts are unlikely to spike home/car buying and rocketing prices for awhile. Not to mention, it will take almost a year to get down to 2 or 3% and... 0% is less likely these days.

[@michaelchoi1539]

Holding TLT at 94 and TMF at 54. Why they are dropping with a big cut I am unsure of, but I guess I got to hope for a recession now(with those 2 taking up a majority of my portfolio).

[@mattyb400]

I bought calls for December on TLT. Strike is 101 102 snd 103. On TMF I have some 61 and 62 calls but they expire in mid November. I think TMF has an ex dividend date next week so I’m thinking maybe I should hold off til after that to buy any more TMF

[@slkttop]

I don’t play with options. Unless I’m selling covered call options. Do you do TLT and TMF more for the dividends? I’ve done a lot of dividend investing. But I don’t really think that much about TLT and TMF and their dividends. I’m doing TMF more because I want to ride the potential upward bond curve in general.

[@michaeldbouck]

"Reflation trade". You're welcome.

[@kingtigercrownestate9102]

People run to bonds when the Fed starts raising rates in an inflationary economy but people are still also running to bonds when the Fed is cutting rates too?🤔

[@s.lindland]

Yeah this really interesting. And seeing as the norwegian government is stopping sale of american etfs here on friday, i'll probably get in on this very soon. I've been using sqqq only so far and have been looking for alternatives, so this is perfect for me as long as the s&p tops within the next three weeks (which i've heard from somewhat credible sources will happen). Really good video and i really like the handheld cam as opposed to just screen capture.

[@oz3906]

You’re right !

[@slkttop]

A few are asking me what financial sources I like. I posted them in the description as "Recent fave financial videos:"

[@dohyunee]

tmf will never go back up like that. thats not how these instruments work, levered etf like that decay over time

[@slkttop]

you mean to TMF's ATH peak? yeah, I did mention I was not looking for that.

[@slkttop]

I took a look at it, since TMF's inception and compared to TLT. While TMF might never go as high as it once did, its share price degradation is not as "bad" as I thought. Certainly nothing like comparing the WTI to USO and then to USOI which is horribly over leveraged. I will do a video on what I see for TMF compared to TLT sometime soon. great tip!

[@nicholashnguyen1]

Try OBS for screen recording!

[@slkttop]

Great TIP!!!! I am going to be using it for the new channel! OBS is already set it up. Thank you.

[@DKerch]

Great content. Completely agree with the analysis.

[@slkttop]

Thanks for commenting. asking you as well. who do you like for financial guidance?

[@csp103]

Ever heard of screen capture software?

[@slkttop]

LOLOL. I know, I suck. I need to figure out how to do it on a PC. I am a Mac guy. These vids were made just for me, and a pal or two, and for just in case I get hit by a bus and my kid wants to hear my point of view on this. I guess it is time to belly up to the bar.

[@gwills9337]

Love it 💪

[@HeyU308]

You are correct, however I believe they will get everyone in the pool before they pull the plug. Easy money coming, bag holders are needed, otherwise it’s too easy. 30-40% upside 60-80% correction. The money supply is ridiculous.

[@slkttop]

interesting, you are thinking 30-40% S&P upside from here? If so, what do you think eventually pulls the plug on the market?

[@philyogaeveryday321]

So buy treasuries now and take profits when the yields bounce off the 40 year trend line?

[@slkttop]

actual treasuries? or an ETF based on Treasuries like TLT?

[@philyogaeveryday321]

@@slkttop Me personally have various bond funds for more nimble trading and asset allocation and also individual treasuries and agency bonds for the interest and semi-annual coupon payments.

[@taylorkaplan2614]

I went 20k in calls on sqqq Thur and Friday lol

[@BeardedDad91]

Hopefully they are long term options. Might not get the crash as soon as you think.

[@robertjosan]

You lose credibility when you curse like sailor

[@slkttop]

I do curse like a sailor. I am just sharing my observations. is the viewpoint helpful or elucidating to you in any way?

[@Gatesunder]

I think you're suffering from a logic flaw. You said the S&P hit an all time high in July, but it also hit all time highs in June, May, April, etc. all the way back to January. Don't be afraid to buy at all time highs. You're just focusing on the one all time high that happened to be a top.

[@slkttop]

In an healthy, bullish market, I agree with you. But there's usually a pullback from an ATH, isn't there? If there is one, and you're bullish, then buy away. If you are dollar cost averaging, especially, it's almost OK to buy whenever. For those who are retired, and working with a fixed bolus, it seems like timing and bottoms become more important.

[@oz3906]

I don’t mean to offend you at all. But you’re not making any sense

[@Gatesunder]

@oz3906 look at the chart and think carefully. Do you see the top in July? OK good, now cover up the chart to the right of July. What's that in June? Oh right, that's an all time high. Now cover up the chart to the right of June. What's that in May? Oh right, that's an all time high. You can do this for large portions of the stock market's history. All time highs are common. The trend is your friend. Markets have an upwards bias.

[@hoshinotanecedryctensaibat9711]

You're talking about ATH after ATH after ATH, that's called a bubble. And on top of that it's a bubble in denial of the underlying reality of where the economy is and where it has no choice but going next. And yeah you could say it's just gonna ATH again, but how far can you realistically take that logic? Trees don't keep up growing until they reach outer space. And on top of that, the current bubble is AI, which is mostly based on hype, and is currently unregulated, as most major governments are purposefully staying away from that issue, because they know investments in AI stocks is at the moment what is propping the markets up. The day one bad regulations on AI happens in any major country, the Majestic 7 will lose so much money that the S&P will deflate like an old sex doll and everything will go to shit within a few days. Sure, you can keep buying into stocks near the last ATH and you might make money, but there's a massive difference between active traders who do that as short trading activity because they know what they're doing and can survive a couple mistakes at the top, and your average joe who hears about magic stocks that don't stop pumping, who throws substantial money way too late into the cycle, and doesn't know when to get the fuck out when it goes the other way. And it's painfully obvious that the S&P is out of whack when most of the money is in a handful of companies from the same industry. If you don't see that, and don't get that it can't go up forever and shouldn't be a thing to begin with, maybe you're the one being flawed in your perception of what's going on. @Gatesunder