ARK Invest Thinks Tesla Could Hit $4 Trillion in 4 Years

[@TMIOTesla]

Hope you guys enjoyed this video. ARK Invest puts a huge weighting on Tesla's FSD strategy. Do you think Tesla will launch an autonomous ride hailing network within the next few years that could reach ARK's massive valuation? Also be sure to check out my Tesla home builder video here: kzbin.info/www/bejne/Y4jOg5mhfJpgo5Y We super appreciate your continued support on patreon.com/themarketisopen Thank you so much!

[@BjorckBengt]

I believe $3000 is reasonable without ride hailing or robotaxis. Tesla will probably sell 5M cars in 2025. Including FSD and Energy sector they will make a profit somewhere between $100B-$200B. The multiple will depend on the growth pace in 2025 but $2000-$4000 share price is probable.

[@proteslapower6754]

My opinion may slightly differ on this topic and here's why! I think Elon is at least a multi-dimensional thinker. That means he looks at problems and opportunities multi-directional. So he's doing all the calculations. Yes he's trying to sell as many model Ys as he can and yes there is a big demand for it. Yes there has not been enough model Ys produced yet for the market. And yes he's trying to pull buyers from his Cybertruck line to the model Y. I know this because I am I reservation holder for a Cybertruck. I was contacted by another showroom after about a week, after I had put in my reservation for the Cybertruck, to drive the model 3 and Y again. Although I really like both vehicles I am unfortunately in a spot, mainly due to this pandemic. I have to wait till I am working again full time to make my purchase. Not just finances being talked about but also features of both vehicles are very different. I was asked if I was interested in a model Y because model Y is available sooner and I said no. I don't believe most people are in a position to buy two new vehicles back to back year after year so I'm willing to wait the extra year for the features of the Cybertruck. If I was working steady like I was in the beginning of the year I would be able to make my new vehicle purchase this year and securely have my funds in alignment. Due to lockdowns back to back, at least in Canada I feel it is safer financially to wait to receive my Cybertruck next year. As well I find the cold rolled stainless steel and adjustable air suspension on my new Cybertruck to be more masculine and I do like the ability to go on off road whenever I choose. Need I go on? So because both vehicles are so different and you already have the space and manpower to put up two separate lines which are going to be needed for the model Y and Cybertruck anyway. Then I say get on with it! The only battery constraint there might be is the new 4680 batteries being built now! I'm sure there is still a stockpile of other batteries from both Panasonic and LG. Cybertruck and Semi both need the larger batteries and model Y does not necessarily need those batteries. If Giga Texas does not pump out over a hundred thousand Cybertrucks for North America this year they are going to lose a lot of there reservation holders because not everyone can wait 2 years or more for their new truck. I believe they will build more Cybertrucks than model Ys this year. They need to build both lines right now because they can build the Cybertruck faster and the demand is large for the truck buyer of North America. Finish the Cyberline at Giga Texas and start building more high density battery plants and Cyberlines throughout North America. Otherwise you still have not reached that market yet and you may lose your reservation holders that can't wait for 2 or 3 more years for their Cybertruck! I am confident if they go this route they will sell more than a million Tesla's this year and be well on their way to more than 2 million next year. I only say this because of my background in Automotive Marketing and thoroughly knowing the demographic truck market of North America. The faster Giga Texas builds Cybertrucks the faster the rest of the world gets their Cybertrucks! Tell me if you like these ideas or have some of your own. I would really like to know. I do appreciate all of you and your comments. This is the time!This is the place! And we are the people that will change the world! [e-mail]

[@carlossandoval6568]

The potential of an autonomous trucking service would disrupt rail, air and ground transportation. This would push the valuation much higher than the ARK bull case. The current price targets are conservative

[@ronaldgarrison8478]

I think this is the first time I've heard a reference to Schroedinger's Cat in a financial discussion. Next thing, you'll be talking about quantum tunneling.

[@imaro2358]

Ark uses EDITDA or cash flow comparisons because Tesla plows so much back into Capex. This is similar to the way Amazon should have been valued during its exponential growth period.

[@irvlennert3674]

Your analysis of ARKs analysis is great! So many KZbin-ers just can't or don't get it. Love the video...

[@TeslaEVolution]

Do a video wher you include ALL Teslas current revenues how they might grow to 2025 plus some likely revenues as referral revenues, Tesla "playStore" equivalent, fan gear, Autobidder, possible HVAC and more.

[@namelastname4077]

of course they do. its their biggest holding.

[@johnmcewan7739]

Too low!

[@NinjaAndRib]

Definitely low. I understand why they didn't include the energy business etc. But those will quickly increase the value of Tesla.

[@technologyandsociety21C]

Question about the RoboTaxi business: what provisions are being made regarding vandalism and theft?

[@TMIOTesla]

For now, the cars have sentry mode, they can see 360 degrees around to see if anyone damages the car from the outside. There's also a camera inside the vehicle to see if anyone damages from inside. In terms of theft, the vehicle has GPS. This info (videos/location) is sent to the owners phone. There's also some AI for detecting these events and automatically sending notifications to where is needed (owner/authorities). Not sure what else Tesla is working on, but it seems like a pretty good start.

[@tubbusmaximus4743]

Excellent video, thoroughly enjoyed it! So you truly feel that ARK's assessment does not include Tesla's alternative energy solutions? I think of Tesla as an Energy company before a car company at this point. I make the assumption when seeing ARK's assessment that battery and panel manufacturing is included in this seemingly aggressive assessment. I'm struggling to break down the numbers for myself however.

[@mikecounsell]

FSD solved... Multi Trillion biz here we come

[@DavidJohnson-tv2nn]

FSD BS! $4 Trillion Bull crap! Just more pumping of overinflated stock.

[@DavidJohnson-tv2nn]

@@transit-future I don't short stocks. That's as dumb as pumping up stocks because you like the guy who runs the company.

[@islammohamed1441]

I am frustrated that ARK's analysis includes revenue streams that are in their larval stage (ride-hailing, robotaxi, insurance) and excludes streams that are much more mature (solar panel, solar roof, home storage, utility storage, FSD for purchase). I agree with your Schrodinger comment: either robotaxi is solved, nullifying human driven ride hailing, or it is not yet solved. I expect the barriers to FSD adoption for robotaxi are likelier to be regulatory than technical. Superhuman driving capability is very likely this year given the beta quality and pace of improvement. The simultaneous human/robo state may be a regulatory artifact, rather than one related to the software. My personal preference is for Tesla to launch human driven ride hailing in the short term, crowdsourcing their platform for generating revenues from taxi services. Why? - spread risk of ownership to a multitude of individual operators - provide an instant robotaxi fleet with the flip of a switch as regulators approve FSD in each jurisdiction - maximize Tesla fleet utilization to reduce carbon emissions - serve as a brand promotion platform without advertising

[@chinchang5117]

I believe that FSD is now only at Level 2 and so, why are u confident we can reach Level 5 in 2025? Who knows, we may reach level 5 only in 3025!! Look, for the past 300 years, we cannot solve Riemann Hypothesis.

[@islammohamed1441]

@@chinchang5117 If it takes a 16 year old a few dozen hours of instruction to master full self driving, I am pretty confident that the accelerating pace of algorithm improvement , continuous attention of the system, and exponentially accumulating data for edge cases will smash your expectations.

[@yourcrazybear]

@@chinchang5117 Full self driving is not a big mathematical problem to solve, so your comparison here is quite off. Instead it's a question of solving computer vision, having the computer recoqnizing and understanding it's environment. The cars drives themselves pretty good already today. What's lacking is the ability to recnognize every object the car can encounter and it's purpose and attributes. If you look at how advanced AI has become in games you will see that these computers can come up with very advanced strategies to solve far greater problems than driving on a street. For full self drivning solving vision is the key.

[@DavidJohnson-tv2nn]

@@islammohamed1441 Are you comparing capability of today's AI to the capabilities of the human brain?

[@DavidJohnson-tv2nn]

@@chinchang5117 You are 100% correct. Musk fans are ridiculous claims in order to pump Tesla stock.

[@YeeLeeHaw]

I think ARK and even Tesla rely too much on the success of full self-driving. We don't know how long it could take or if it's even possible at all to create an autonomous vehicle that can handle fringe cases without real artificial general intelligence.

[@wolfgangpreier9160]

No we don't know that. But i know one thing: FSD Beta has had no accident up till now. Thats statistically impossible. 2000 drivers must have had at least one accident. But according to Tesla: None. Now we all know Tesla underestimates times or overestimates their power to overcome obstacles, but they never lie. So: What happens when the insurance industry gets wind of those numbers? When the social security and health insurance industry gets wind of these numbers? Will they try to forbid this tech? Or allow? Or endorse? And what happens when - lets say just for an example - Germany makes a new law allowing level 4 autonomy on their streets. On all streets in whole germany? What will all other EU members do? Forbid it? Allow it? Endorse it? Will China feel the need to step one step further and immediately allow it? Regardless that none of the cars support the plenned telematic infrastructure with 5G already? Finally: It does not matter if and when those fringe cases will be "solved". I predict the fringe cases themselves will mostly be "solved".

[@YeeLeeHaw]

​@@wolfgangpreier9160 There are bad drivers that haven't had an accident in years, but then it happens when they can't avoid a more complex situation and someone gets seriously injured. We can't know based on a few beta tests in similar environments, we have to look at the fringe cases that will show themselves when the numbers get up in millions of miles and in environments that throw a lot of randomness on the system. The question is if you wouldn't be comfortable sleeping when an FSD vehicle drives for you, can it be regarded as FSD? What's the level of standard here? Because full self-driving should be *full,* not some, or better than average; it must be much better because a machine doesn't work the same way a human brain works. Even if it may look like it deals with situations better than a human the catastrophic failures could still be higher since it doesn't see the world in the same way a human does.

[@wolfgangpreier9160]

@@YeeLeeHaw Yes we can not. But then all those other drivers without FSD Beta were the culprit. NOT those WITH FSD. What i am saying: It is more safe and secure for the drivers AND all others to own and USE a FSD Beta NOW. Even before all those fringe cases like U-Turns on roads, which not even a experienced driver gets correct in our country. Our roads are not wide enough for that. If you don't and drive around with your Suda or Zastava, maybe the odd Tata or Mahindra in between then you are about 400 times more vulnerable. Ok that was a exaggeration. Its only about 300 times...

[@gwarlow]

@Daniel David How well are certain human drivers presently handling those “fringe” cases? Add to this, the geniuses who text, read, make phone calls or apply makeup while they drive, AI has (in my opinion) a pretty good chance of besting our worst drivers and equalling the skills of our best drivers. Time will tell...

[@wolfgangpreier9160]

@@gwarlow You forgot shave, drink coffee or unbottled sparkling long drinks, eat burgers and bagles which crumble and must be cleaned up and those changing their music cassettes while driving... I sincerly hope that it will be allowed this year or next year and i predict in 2040 no more self driving cars are allowed on general roads. Only on closed circuits. Just like fossil cars. Those will only be allowed in closed arenas with a very large warning sign: "Those who enter will loose their health certificates"

[@AllYouWantAndMore]

The lower margin for Tesla is assuming Tesla continues to spend heavily on Research and Development while holding a higher P/E ratio. Ark is being conservative.

[@Samuel-ym7ls]

Ark is being conservative and the media and other analysts are like 🤯

[@Tom-vx7xm]

Are they? 10X in revenue over 5 years are the "bear case"

[@DB-gh4nj]

@@Tom-vx7xm Well the stock price has nothing to do with the real world value of a company. Never underestimate the power of stupid musk fans in large numbers

[@Tom-vx7xm]

@@DB-gh4nj true

[@vec306]

@@DB-gh4nj name calling is the first sign of a small mind.

[@DB-gh4nj]

@@vec306 well I didn't call all musk fans stupid. I said the musk fans that are stupid have large influence as they are really loud in the social media. But I mean if you felt attacked, maybe you should think about that.

[@deant007]

Thanks! Too low since not include energy business and bitcoin 🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀✌️🙏🏽

[@davidwilkie9551]

Reality is a bit of a squishy random walk into chaos, businesses that are adaptive to circumstances can make the future come about. (Sailing analogies are apt because the general economy is like steering Ocean Liners, and nearby, smaller Sailboats have to survive high erratic winds and rough waters) The difference between Markets and Businesses is controlled, to an extent, by the CEO and integrated staffing, so implies "buy and hold" strategies have to combine the whole vertically integrated recirculating re-evolution circumstances. Best of Luck.

[@TeslaEVolution]

Also a video about WHAT is the statistical probability that legacy auto can come close to compete with Tesla and how Tesla will sell their FSD, skateboard base for e.g Ford to brand/window dress?? That WILL happen.

[@tra129iscool]

But what will it hit this year?

[@proteslapower6754]

First of all I would like to be one of the many to thank Elon Musk for his leadership, determination and all of his efforts of helping humanity clean up our environment with sustainable energy programs. Also with his commitment of SpaceX to allow the exploration of space for future colonization. Our world is a fragile place that currently all of humanities eggs are all in one basket. By spreading our wings and being able to leave our nest we will ensure that human consciousness will live on outside of our planet. I was asked by A very wise man in the early 2000s if I had millions of dollars to help humanity, what would the most important innovations be in business for all of humanity? I knew that the petroleum industries were polluting our air water and food to the point that people were getting sick and dying of diseases from those major fossil fuel pollutants. As we talked further and further about electric vehicles and transportation, solar power and other sustainable energies. He said I think you're right and it should be done because he as well had been pondering that question. He wanted to be thorough though so he asked if anything else should be focused on for all of humanity? I said yes and case of a global disaster whether it be a climatic asteroid strike or another world war I suggested that space exploration also be considered to prevent the collapse of human consciousness as we know it. Thinking back all of those years almost seems like a deja vu to where we are today. Again I can't think of anyone else but Elon that would put all of their Fortune on the line for the rest of humanity. With his consistant focus and extremely innovative leadership, he is leading the world out of darkness and into the light of the rest of our universe. So much yet to learn and do but thanks to the lead of people like Elon we can step in the right direction. We all have more in us to offer the rest of the world. So let's do it! This is the time and we are the people that will change the world! For those of you who like these ideas or have some of your own to offer, please let me know. I appreciate all of you and your comments. Let's shoot for the Moon and end up amongst the Stars! [e-mail]

[@ManMountainManX]

TY. /

[@emmettthompson2167]

I think the Expected $3001 in 2025 is optimistic, yet in the realm of possibility. I thing there Bear and Bull cases are kind of useless because the probability of either is very low. i enjoyed this video. Good job summarizing!

[@francischan57c]

ARK is the best

[@JK-ku2mj]

I like T. Kenee - havent seen her for a while now - may to busy for Interviews?

[@EikTuKaTu]

ARK invest and their analyst are MAD! Cathie was riding the bull and now she's toast, look at value of her fund. They have lost a fortune already.

[@steve.k4735]

Over a one year period from the time of your `ridiculousness` post a investment in ArkK would have returned a 120% .. over 5 years a 700% return .. what do you sprinkle on YOUR toast gold?

[@aftonline]

3 months later, TSLA is still at the same level of just below $700. I believe Tesla has peaked, so the bull case for Tesla in 2025 is for Tesla to still be in business with a stock price of $1000. Bear case, stock price at $500. The reason I say this, is that all the early adopters have already bought a Tesla, but as with the mobile phone market, people coming into the market later are going to be looking for a bargain, and Tesla doesn't make cheap cars, they make state of the art leading edge premium cars. The cheapest EV where I live is not a Tesla, it's a Chinese-made car badged under a legacy British brand name, the MG ZS-E. I don't buy a mobile phone for more than about $250, and I won't buy an EV until they are available for about $25k, and even then I will wait till there are plenty of used examples available for under $10k, which is my benchmark for buying a used car. So I won't be buying an EV until at least 2030, maybe later. And quite likely it won't be a Tesla. I have owned a number of smartphones, but never an iPhone because I don't pay top dollar for a depreciating technology item that will be obsolete in a few years. Likewise, EV technology will continue to evolve, and like any car, old Teslas will eventually lose their value as battery technology improves over time. But I am sure that a 2013 Model S will continue to be more expensive than the cheaper mass market EV's that have succeeded it, eg Model 3, Y and the soon to be released Model ?. And of course even cheaper than that will be used EV's from other manufacturers such as VW, etc. As long as an EV has acceptable range, I would buy one. My benchmark would be it has to have at least 550km range like my current gas car, and ideally would cost no more than $5000 which I paid for my Toyota Yaris, but I would stretch a point there as long as electricity prices are still cheap, maybe I would go to $7000 or $8000 as I can make some savings because electricity is cheaper than gas. But I'm not holding my breath for those kinds of prices in my market any time soon.

[@renemaimann-roland1904]

Its very much dependent on the FSD taxi network, there is a lot factors Tesla dont control, like does it get approved, even if its working better than humans? I know for sure in EU it will take a very long time to be approved, so all the cars in EU can not be included in the 2025 model. And then I dont understand why haven't they included the Energy sector? I really like how Ark do there predictions, but this one seems to be kind of strange. But of cause by not including the energy, then for sure they will make the 3000 by 2025, as the energy will be pulling up what FSD have not fulfilled. Thanks for yet another great video.

[@yourcrazybear]

As far as I know EU does not decide what individual countries can do in this area.

[@renemaimann-roland1904]

@@yourcrazybear to some extended, however not many of the EU countries are prepared to take the risk.

[@markoverton5858]

Far to low £1000 is more like the price

[@DavidJohnson-tv2nn]

$4 Trillion Bull crap! Just more pumping of overinflated stock.

[@SAMMYJR00777]

RIP TSLA VW IS TAKING OVER

[@SLee-vj4px]

@@SAMMYJR00777 VW is taking over EV market? If so, you may want to watch Sandy Munro's analysis on ID4. VW (and other legacy ICE makers) are at least 10 years behind Tesla in almost every aspect of EV.

[@josedelacuadra660]

Elon just mentioned this high valuation a week ago. So you say “bull crap”?

[@DavidJohnson-tv2nn]

@@josedelacuadra660 Absolute bull crap! Tesla stock is pumped up and way over valued. It is fake value.

[@josedelacuadra660]

@@DavidJohnson-tv2nn Tell me this again 5 years hence. I will send a bull to crap in your parade.

[@SAMMYJR00777]

LOL NOPE RIP TSLA

[@fififinance7469]

Top work! 💪

[@BTsNemesis]

At this point I feel like the Researchers at ARK are highly educated in each respective field of technology, but have no idea of how businesses work

[@ZInChat]

KZbinrs pumping TSLA is hillarious.

[@Sambo111]

This is crap Stock price are not corelated to sells directly and PE ration is un known. No one knows The future and all pridictions are usless

[@yourcrazybear]

No. Your comment might be crap, but analyses and predictions are most certainly not.