Tom Lee on the 4 Most Important Market Indicators

Josh here - I really enjoyed talking with Tom Lee, former JPMorgan strategist and the founder of Fundstrat Research, about how he uses the evidence to understand what's happening in the markets.
Tom cites four indicators he uses to explain current trends and think about where markets and the economy might be headed. Among them, credit spreads, demographics and volatility.
Tom also talks about his bullish stance and why he isn't terribly worried about the yield curve inversion we saw this summer.
You can learn more about Tom's work at the site:
fsinsight.com/
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Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management.
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[@kylesuds00]

Please get Tom back on the show! Holds up as one of the best interviews on the Compound

[@TheCompoundNews]

Thanks, that would be fun, Tom is great!

[@MohammadaliAnsarizadeh]

When Tom Lee talks I listen.

[@leontxyee]

Tom Lee, right or wrong, is a true critical thinker

[@theglisanberglundagency9390]

Fact.

[@antoniocolella1445]

what do u mean,hes always right,even about china.

[@meredrums1]

Agree.

[@mustang0619]

@@antoniocolella1445 ya he’s been right nonstop lately right 😂😂😂😂😂

[@g.vareeentertainment6607]

Yes

[@gethamill]

This video is the most valuable 20 minutes any investor should watch. Very grateful. Thank you.

[@TheCompoundNews]

Wow, high praise, thanks for watching!

[@Qwuiet]

you can tell someone knows how to think if their argument is original, facts based, and unemotional. Tom Lee's got it.

[@sebastiandonickler.6715]

10 months later I see this interview (with the pandemic in between) and he made the right calls... impressive!! 🙌🏻 Tks Josh

[@danijelsan81]

Tom Lee is a brilliant guy. He’s also not afraid to make a market call. A rare combination.

[@other2718]

hes also always wrong. very talented

[@muhumedmohamud2356]

@@other2718 how

[@museachina]

Still rewatching in Dec 2021!

[@MrBob2k99]

This is great to get some more detailed thoughts from Tom than 30 second to 2 minute snippets on cnbc

[@ishiguroray]

What a great conversation! To get the right answers you have to ask the right questions great job by Josh!

[@nlabanok]

This conversation is a gift equivalent to 6 nines level pure gold...

[@---zg7ex]

i did not know how good he is until today

[@adamklee]

This was great. Clicked on it as background, stayed glued thru the whole thing.

[@TWN321]

Just found this interview. This is EXCELLENT!! Thumbs up and subscribed. Tom Lee is great; and lots of respect for Josh's work!

[@ParkerAntoine]

Loved this one Josh, Tom is a favorite bull. Keep the videos coming!

[@TheCompoundNews]

Thanks Parker! Tom is great. Thank you for the support.

[@realjoedee]

Eh. Tom predicted Bitcoin going to $25,000 last year :/

[@namelessmillennial]

@@TheCompoundNews 9 inch BBC here looking for a white bbw only

[@merachannel100]

Great video indeed,Josh. You guys discussed indicators and touched on recession talk. Since this video was done pre covid, it would be interesting to see how Toms’s thoughts have changed now, if at all?

[@chrissavory1858]

My favourite video on this channel. Tom Lee is a pleasure to listen to. Thanks, Josh!

[@billspam2035]

This is great, always a pleasure to listen to Tom's. Thank you.

[@seandelaney1700]

Just saw your recent interview with Tom prior to this, two of the best episodes I have seen on the market this year. I really appreciate Tom sharing his thought processes as well as his long term outlook. Great interview Josh.

[@jjakemaness]

here for the same reason. soaking up any knowledge from Tom i can.

[@duudleDreamz]

Great interview, and Tom rocks!! Thank you guys.

[@o.g.autodot]

Thanks Josh! You’re my favorite on the Halftime Report, I appreciate your contribution to this entity called “The Financial Market” Idealist investors/traders honor your thin filter and your insights that can morph into instructions. Respect ✊🏾

[@mikec6116]

Two very straight forward smart dudes ! I thoroughly thoroughly enjoyed this vid guys ! Smart never gets old Thanks !!!

[@TravisHuff]

Tom is truly the man and I love his insight on markets! Research always WINS!

[@davidwilliamson9257]

What an interesting conversation about population aging. I now understand the basis of Tom's optimism on the market.

[@stanmanmedia]

Great, really great. Both of you are my favs who I always listen to, and I belong to Lee's Fundstrat FSInsight. In this interview you both kept the discussion at a level one can understand , most of it. It is greatly appreciated!! Tremendous help for me at 62 years old trying to get finances better organized at a critical time in my life. Fantastic!!

[@swipekonme]

most mind blowing interview of all time

[@wealthpupil5157]

Great interview as always! You guys just deliver quality, Josh! Whenever I see Tom Lee in interviews I end up raising my eye brow. 🤨 Great great insights from you both.

[@ewalton47]

Really, really on-the-Mark with this vid, Josh. A bit of sanity. So appreciated & thnx to Mr Lee for explaining it.

[@TheInvestmentCircle]

Man Josh! You guys ROCK! Tom has been derided so much when the markets start teetering, like in late ‘18, but then everyone jumps onto the bandwagon after. I do believe the FED repos are causing our current October/November Bull Run but I see 2020 as being a pivotal year for equities. Super excited for what the future holds!

[@adambennett7451]

Best one yet. Great cadence and solid questions.

[@john-tr8jy]

I can tell this channel was made to ask great questions which help the listener and invites the guests to offer more. Subscribed!

[@henrykolberg1349]

I gotta rewatch this at 1/2 speed and take some notes. This is pure gold, fantastic conversation

[@TheCompoundNews]

Thanks Henry, Tom is great.

[@evankim4096]

I never even considered how demographics play into the market like this. Seems so obvious and makes a lot of sense! I heard Cramer give the same sentiment about how 2021 would be a big bull year because and cited these demographics and the awakening of the retail investor and it's great to hear that the data that backs his point of view up.

[@chaitanydesai1723]

Your podcas/tcontent is quickly becoming my new flavor of the month due to the guest and substance of the conversation! Keep it coming josh !

[@mmabagain]

Although I am more of a "get your asset allocation right and stay the course" kinda guy, I really enjoyed this guest. He gives a lot of food for thought.

[@realjoedee]

Same. I'm of the Warren Buffet camp--don't buy something unless you are comfortable holding it for 10+ years. If you are buying good companies who have large moats and that you understand, and are investing in them at a great price, then you should be golden.

[@richramsey4335]

These deeper dives are very helpful. Great job!

[@TheCompoundNews]

Thanks Rich! Too much to cover in a short or predetermined amount of time. Glad you enjoyed and found useful.

[@11.5milemarker7]

Thank you Josh, appreciate you efforts to create an captivating interview with a wise man. 👍🏼

[@briantep458]

fascinating insights, we need an updated version with Tom Lee

[@marxenbrothers]

Thanks for this interview! Tom, you really provide some gold there! Simple indicators that are easy to follow and I appreciate to see a contrarian. Just one point wasn't discussed. What about the high SP500 level in terms of PE ratios and in terms of the "Buffet indicator" of market cap to GDP ratio. While the US might not fall into an outright recession, doesn't the US equity market seem overvalued taking these two indicators into consideration?

[@Bomberboybrad]

This is one of the most thought provoking videos I’ve seen out of thousands in the last year.

[@paulbarr1705]

Excellent guest and interview, Josh. I will reference and refer this video several times.

[@prula]

WOW what a great video! Thank You!

[@dubrunna]

Probably the most valuable KZbin video I've seen in a while. Props.

[@TheCompoundNews]

Wow, thank you for the feedback. Glad you enjoyed and share with someone who might also enjoy!

[@brandonderrick006]

Then you haven't seen Tom Lee's bitcoin speeches lol...

[@AustinSilverFX]

love the content on your channel guys, really good stuff.

[@William14094]

I love how instead of just stats and chart technicals, Tom focuses on the behavioral forces behind the market. Very critical but often overlooked.

[@arimichael2499]

FANTASTIC VIDEO...AS IMPRESSIVE AS TOM WAS DOWNTOWNS INTERVIEW STYLE AND QUESTIONING WAS EQUALLY AS IMPRESSIVE...GOOD WORK GENTS...

[@TraderJoe888]

Really appreciate you making this valuable video. Great interview, great market insights.

[@jinkim23]

Fantastic interview.

[@dennis1985]

Hey josh. Love your channel. Not gonna lie, I don’t quite understand everything you’re talking about but I’m learning a lot thanks to you. Much appreciated

[@Tendomcgoobin]

Keep grinding bro.

[@chazrawls7600]

Great stuff! Please do a 2021 follow up!

[@markofunkade]

Excellent interview

[@jok6832]

first video i watch on this channel, Josh you are one impressive interviewer . Subscribed and looking forward to new content 👍

[@briansuth6542]

Josh and team been a fan from Day one.... GREAT JOB!!

[@benschumacher9439]

Great conversation and very informative for someone like me trying to learn what to watch for

[@FG-gh7wv]

Very good interview. I watch Tom on Fast Money and like his calls. Just never realized how much thought and work go into his calls.

[@cruedriver]

Such a smart and very insightful video. Thank you for posting. More please!

[@TheCompoundNews]

Moar to come for sure. Thank you MSP!

[@juliantucker3825]

This is the best KZbin channel I have ever found

[@maikvoets3628]

Great insights from Mr. Lee! And great questions too.

[@scottscriticalmass]

Enjoy all your videos Josh, but especially like the discussions with researchers, strategists and fellow investors. Hearing different ideas and thought processes is educational. I like hearing ideas, especially when I don't necessarily agree. Food for thought and I'm a big fan of food. As an example, 'China might be Japan in 20 years'. Hmmm... BTW... The little chuckle at the 14:30 was very appropriate. Could there be more layers to that analysis...

[@TheCompoundNews]

Thanks for the feedback Scott. More to come.

[@karolpelc3956]

Thank you Josh for the valuable upload! This is one of the most useful financial videos on youtube,

[@TheCompoundNews]

Glad it was helpful!

[@nestorfont9118]

This is GOLD! So much free knowledge

[@TheKarldav]

he is really good.!! just watched it now.

[@rodsalvador3608]

China being the next Japan is not an unrealistic scenario. Great stuff as always. Thanks so much for providing this content for the plebes!

[@ashg3250]

Thanks great information

[@markfmunroe]

Outstanding session

[@smitd4ty]

JB ... You have to do a follow-up with Tom Lee on this. His his take on China altered post COVID? Love his indicators. Can't believe I'm just finding this interview!

[@pfschuyler]

Impressed by both parties, not in the context of things being bullish (or not), but it appears to be insightful research.

[@jimchastain4243]

Josh, Tom, Great video. Question for you: Should you not include the buyback yield combined with the equity yield when comparing it to the spread of Junk Bonds and treasuries. S&P 500 dividend yield is 1.81%, but the buyback and dividend yield is closer to 6%. That would be greater than spread and be a negative signal for equity.

[@med1na33]

Really good stuff. Thanks

[@TheCompoundNews]

Thank YOU for the watch and support.

[@Alex-pm8wr]

Tom Lee, people who want recessions are the ones who didn't get long since 2010. They have been in cash for so long, they NEED a recession. With all due respect to those recession-needy people, don't bet against americans.

[@do_regan]

Exactly, tons of people have been long cash since 2015 and they're BEGGING for another great recession.

[@michaelhyman8099]

Demography is a true leading indicator and it’s proving correct as we speak. Well done Tom & Josh.

[@lachoranchev6039]

Pure gold!

[@ancamarcu1974]

Very informative!👍🇨🇦🇷🇴

[@frankdavidson644]

Tom,awesome job great information 👍

[@stevebenjestorf1861]

Tom Lee, excellent commentary. Thank you.

[@TheCompoundNews]

Glad you enjoyed it, Steve!

[@bizmogrowth9081]

Just binged 3 of your videos. Great content. Subbed 👍

[@skfanfanfan]

1. OK, why didn't YT push this video to me earlier? I wish I could have watched it earlier. 2. Tom and Josh are 2 of the best. Thanks.

[@dondoit3336]

He is usually on cnbc. And apparently recently ha has become a CNBC contributor. He has said many times, I know it’s hard for anyone to believe, but S&P will hit 3400 within 4 months, it was around 2500 then, and of course it did hit that number, then a few times he repeated saying, we will hit 4200-4400 by the summer. It looks like he was right again and we might get there too.

[@smallinvestor1713]

Nice insights!

[@tchauish]

Thank you Tom!

[@g.vareeentertainment6607]

I can not believe how good this is. AND free… incredible

[@bobdavidson4163]

Great interview Josh! This is timeless info from Tom Lee. Thanks for making it happen!

[@grouan]

You need to bring him back for an update.

[@ARCYaxia]

Great interview and Tom Lee is really knowledgeable. Thanks

[@TheCompoundNews]

Thanks for watching!

[@postmodgent1499]

My question is does the AI software that executes most trades see the markets the same way.

[@robertoortega5979]

The two best imo!

[@waynejohnson2500]

You are great Tommy!

[@KL-sm4bm]

Excellent interview !

[@markgoessling8704]

Today, i am using my credit card exclusively for all purchases compared to purchases when i was younger (in the 30-50 age range). This change was primarily due to the incentives that credit card companies are providing today. How will this change in spending habits for all credit card consumers skew the research used to predict peaks?

[@shazieb786]

Need a part 2 for 2021 post pandemic and in light of the 2021 january mania

[@CO8848_2]

He is a really good contrarian indicator

[@albertosantangelo6872]

Are you sure Chase credit card data are freely available? Does anyone have a link to the dataset?

[@dhrabarchuk]

Wow, great content, this is a true gem. Thank you!

[@TheCompoundNews]

Thanks, Dan!

[@sailorforlifebestti3366]

Oh yea. he nailed it.

[@totalclutter]

Fantastic.

[@adamomar8401]

Omg! Josh is the best at translating complex concepts. and plain speaking finance.

[@Mr44B]

Ignoring the "false" yield curve inversion of 1998, if you look at the major substantial inversions (to -50bps or more) of the last 20 years i.e. Aug 2000, Nov 2006 (and now Aug 2019), the stock market PEAKED within +/- a handful of months either side of that (i.e. so we have AT MOST another month or two maximum if we have not peaked already) and then the stock market subsequently FELL for a period of at least 18-24 months by at least 40%-60% i.e. a CRASH as the yield curve re-steepend over a period of 2-4 years following the trough to +350bps. We troughed in August in the yield curve at -50bps....we have already steepened back to +40bps in the space of 2-3 months.Over the next 2 years or so that will go back to the top of the range of +350bps and the stock market is going to lose at least 40% of its value if not a lot more. You guys are just PERMABULL charlatans and woe betide those following your "advice"

[@tjlawless8588]

Its 2022, and Tom Lee was spot on. I had listened to Ray Dalio who was way off. Tom, do you put much or any weight to debt cycles and the economic machine?

[@frankdavidson644]

Thanks Tom great information 👍

[@bkinstler]

Hey, the two smartest guys on CNBC! I can more or less ignore everyone else.

[@daveh5625]

The Great,, Mr. Tom Lee...

[@cookinthekitchen]

Love this