Yield Storm Ahead: Preparing for a New Era | Systematic Investor 330

[@user-rzb]

I can't believe I didn't see this podcast early enough. I don't know what I was doing. I look for all of your podcast spot on as always to the day with the rally here hoping the rest of it plays out the same way amazing as always.

[@Brian-or2jy]

Maybe Cem is better in writing, but whenever I hear him on podcasts it's talk soup. He makes outrageous statements like a possible 6.5% 10-year. But I can't make head or tail of what conditions precipitate that.

[@zatarawood3588]

I think he said that he believes we have structural inflation therefore yields will go higher. A small part of inflation maybe structural, but most was transitory and caused by a pandemic supply shock. No idea where he gets the idea its structural inflation. Perhaps if there is near shoring by Trumps administration it will drive structural inflation, but Bessen has said that firms wont be forced to suddenly move and have a 2 year grace period. Therefore there wont be any effect any time soon from that. As for a tight labour market, well if spending declines then businesses wont need so many staff and you wont have a tight labour market anymore. Last Core CPI was 0.2% MoM gain, so it looks like inflation is going past the 2% target on the downside! So maybe Cem knows something we don't and if so Id love to hear it!