TROPICAL UPDATE: Where Are The Tropical Systems At?

[@heidiesterholm2938]

Good report David

[@Spagine]

I remember 2019 starting off like this and got the F named system on sept 3rd however still ended up being pretty active

[@ElevaTOURSbyRainMaves]

@@Spagine yes

[@Justme-i8o]

Shall we start saying active season instead of Hyperactive season ? Doesn’t seem we gonna have the amount of cyclones that NHC forecast.

[@WeatherForce2024]

I would say active instead of hyperactive at this point

[@gregd4633]

Man it’s only the middle of August it’s supposed to be slow right now. I swear people need better hobbies. It’s never supposed to be busy in the middle of August, every year has a dead period.

[@bryanmartin8855]

It’s coming you wait and see. You mark my words. Don’t underestimate the process. We don’t know the potential that this season will bring.

[@WxCenterNazario]

Forgive me, but this video is feeding the folks who want the season to fail. And I noticed a few individuals made mention of this in your comments already Dry air - only a small piece of the puzzle This is not realistically what’s causing our waves to dissipate before the MDR can spin them up The Atlantic ridge - very prominent feature. Previous tropical cyclone that hit the US threw us into a pseudo fall time pattern, and as a result the high was retrograded eastward. Couple that with the sinister conditions directly over west/central Africa and were left with another lull after Ernesto The ensembles - ensembles are available because they do much better than deterministic models beyond 10-15 days. So your discussion about the ensembles being poor after a certain period is completely inaccurate. I could go further but I rather not

[@pm5206]

Models are sorely wrong and bad. Climate models have been excellent this year. Climate models DO show major increase in activity and dangerous storms forming starting in late August (27th onwards). By September, we will be busy and October through November will also be busy. Remember 2022. “It’s a bust.” Then came Fiona and Ian.

[@gregd4633]

PM you always bring the best, I really hope you’re taking the next steps to becoming a meteorologist because we need good honest people like yourself. And if you need any help or advice, please feel free to reach out to me and I’ll help you out as much as I possibly can. Blessings to you and your family

[@neomusic9297]

Hey David, I loved this video completely realistic!!! You know it’s annoying when all these KZbin creators are hyping up the hurricane season even though it’s clear that the conditions are not yet in place, also do you think this hurricane season will still be extremely hyper active or not??

[@WeatherForce2024]

I would say it’s gonna be active, but not hyperactive what they predicted before.

[@pm5206]

@@WeatherForce2024People like myself never used the word “hyperactive”. For a good reason. We said “active” and “busy”. It has already been active and busy.

[@joshjosh575]

Congrats on your new baby, your wife and her boyfriend finally conceived! That’s awesome man. Congrats. Your 2 are going to make great dads! He’s a great weatherman wing man.

[@AnotherRigmarole]

Dude. What?!

[@joshjosh575]

@@AnotherRigmarole he has a patreon channel where he talks about his life and family. He had hard time conceiving and he allowed wife To have her boyfriend move In. He’s a great guy, he makes them happy and finally have baby. Happy for them.

[@gregd4633]

@@joshjosh575Huh? You’re talking about David?

[@gregd4633]

@@AnotherRigmaroleI was thinking the same thing like what?

[@joshjosh575]

@@gregd4633 it’s not a big deal. What wrong with you guys. He’s been open about this on this instagram and patreon.

[@tokenlife9007]

I’m in NE Florida . I wouldn’t mind a small storm coming thru to get a couple days off from work. No major damage or injuries to anyone though

[@suzannecermy3700]

Maybe next year

[@stormteen9944]

Just wait till September rolls around. Remember, the activity level of a hurricane season is not based on the number of storms that occurs it is based on the amount of ACE. We are well above the climatological ACE level for this time of year. We are currently very above average for this time of year. ACE is at 51.8. We don’t typically see that number till mid September. 123+ ACE is above average and 164 is hyperactive.

[@jacksonfilms3388]

Exactly @stormteen9944 nailed it right on the head 2024 is actually ahead when it comes to hurricanes, major hurricanes and ACE than 2020

[@gregd4633]

Thank you 👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾 you noticed David didn’t respond to your comment right? Because he’s trying to play the middle of the road and gain viewers attention because people complaining about hype

[@bryanmartin8855]

You agree with me on this so very good.

[@scottpatton3231]

A big yawn to this hurricane season.

[@WeatherForce2024]

I’m slowly beginning to agree with that if we can’t get anything until at least earlier mid September, then this season is definitely not gonna pan out.

[@TheCarlson25]

Scottpatton3231 Thank God count your blessings

[@gregd4633]

Every single person on this platform needs to choose better hobbies, because it’s supposed to be slow right now. It’s not supposed to be active until the end of August early September, you guys need to start looking for better hobbies if you’re that bored. Tracking hurricanes supposed to help save lives, not entertain people. This is why people starting to get frustrated with KZbin right now

[@gregd4633]

@@WeatherForce2024David, you depend on the models way too much. If you would have read my earlier post that you said was the longest ever posted on your channel you would understand why it’s important not just to use models for forecasting

[@caba.vrc1]

One thing I am worried about is that if a system gets into the GOM or western Caribbean, it will explode into a MONSTER if the atmospheric conditions are right as there hasn't really been a lot of systems to reduce the SST's and OHC in these regions. This season will definitely be quality over quantity. Beryl proved and that and I'm sure that, unfortunately, many more systems will. Thus my updated prediction 16-21NS 9-14 H 4-8 M

[@jacksonfilms3388]

David you are definitely right, I am scratching my head of what's REALLY going to happen in August? I am still not letting my guard down though for September though, because that can really catch people off guard it can take one or two like Ian/Fiona (2022) or Andrew (1992) or Georges/Mitch and 4 hurricanes at once (sept1998). Disclaimer: I didn't want to overhype or stress anyone I just want people to not let their guard down

[@monsterhigh66bratzillaz28]

US And Newfoundland

[@williamtaylor4289]

I bet September is quiet too

[@Schizniit]

Just try to be prepared. Hopefully it does stay quiet for a while. We don't need any more tropical storms in the southeast

[@dianareveron4576]

What you all want??!!, a Hurricane cat4 5????!!!!, nobody knows whats that ok. Remember Msria Maria2017??!, i was there my peopke, in Puerto Rico and it was awful!!. So if nothings happens, will be the best.Keep watching you Dabid, good job!!!. D.👋🇵🇷🌀🏝

[@TheCarlson25]

Dianareveron4576 Exactly people need to count their blessings like damn

[@suzannecermy3700]

They should never try to predict the season before it starts,just let it start and we will all see what really happens

[@WeatherForce2024]

Exactly.

[@ElevaTOURSbyRainMaves]

@@WeatherForce2024 someone had to say it

[@benzanato]

They only do predictions in order to ramp up the fear.

[@bryanmartin8855]

You’re wrong suzzane. You don’t know what the season will bring us . Florida is going to get hit again you mark my words. You don’t specialize in the weather. Rest my case.

[@cvk4488]

I feel like its because this year was too dry all over the western hemisphere. (like too much saharan dust, very drier than normal conditions in Arctic canada)

[@suzannecermy3700]

I just think the Atlantic is dead because of the dry air,the most likely place in my opinion,would be the Gulf,or bay of Campeche

[@pm5206]

It’s not. Atlantic is coming alive. Just like 2022.

[@cvk4488]

​@@pm5206nope. too much dust

[@suzannecermy3700]

Then NHC and Colorado should never predict it

[@pm5206]

NOAA issues a seasonal forecast. Not NHC.

[@suzannecermy3700]

If anything happens it will be in the GOM

[@suzannecermy3700]

The high dominantes

[@NoahBoyer21]

I feel it is so ironic that 2022 was a la nina year, but it produced near-average to even slightly below-average activity, but 2023 was an el nino year, but it produced above-average activity. Something to me is just not adding up... La nina years are normally supposed to be more active than el nino years. 2024 has been a bust in terms of what was expected. I was expecting to have 12 named storms by now, and there are only 5. I do certainly think NOAA and CSU went to high with their forecast numbers. If there is no activity even through mid September, I don't even know what I'm going to do. And for UPenn that forecasted 33 named storms... COME ON!!! That is crazy!

[@jacksonfilms3388]

Well... it's had more hurricanes, major hurricanes and ACE than 2020 at this point 8/18 (3-2) (1-0) (

[@NoahBoyer21]

@@jacksonfilms3388 True, I just don't see another 20 named storms, maybe there might be 10 more.

[@stormteen9944]

The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season was stunted by a large volcanic eruption that disrupted the atmosphere, making it not conducive for tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic during August. That’s what killed the season. In 2023 the sea surface temperatures were at record high temperatures, which took away the effects of the El Niño.

[@jacksonfilms3388]

@@NoahBoyer21 I see what you mean it can be a season like 1998 however, that's why we can't let our guard down just yet

[@MrWarrenRetro]

You remember it was busy season since 1988, for 2024

[@RetroBloxYT]

Eastern Pacific is currently thriving

[@pm5206]

Because of MJO placement. That’s normal. 2 weeks, Atlantic will be favourable and getting busy.

[@ElevaTOURSbyRainMaves]

There is nothing out there David to talk about when it comes to weather about next week for my usual area is looking dry for right now the severe weather will come back but when 🤷🏻

[@ElevaTOURSbyRainMaves]

If I see anybody hyping about late august i will just ignore it

[@ElevaTOURSbyRainMaves]

My last big severe weather event was back in mid May it’s mid August David so I can agree with you

[@pm5206]

What severe weather? It’s quiet. Later this week, stormy weather resumes in Florida and by Labour Day, tropical threat.

[@ElevaTOURSbyRainMaves]

Could I be wrong David about late August yes but I think will close August on a quiet period that’s my prediction

[@Dolsondufour]

I think hurricane season will come a live in September

[@pm5206]

It’s coming with a vengeance, worse than 2022. People were panicking “bust, no storm in August, season is over.” I was slightly fooled because I did not pay close attention to climate model data. We then had Fiona and Ian in September. Then Nicole in November.

[@ElevaTOURSbyRainMaves]

What about my severe weather season I can’t just say oh yeah my season is basicly over right NO thats like saying the exact same thing with Hurricane season I remember last year very well right there was a storm out near New Mexico and it just rapidly intensified out in the ocean and as it gets closer to land it completely destroyed the city and here is the thing there was no warning given nobody saw it coming either and yeah so I think where just in a little bit of a low right now everything’s quiet and calm For now

[@TheCarlson25]

​@@pm5206Just because it happened in 2022 doesn't mean it will happen now.

[@pm5206]

@@TheCarlson25 This is already a busy season and will continue. Climate models show strong signals and beyond two weeks, looks like we will be seeing activity. The most likely places to be impacted are the Caribbean islands and SE United States (Florida to North Carolina).

[@suzannecermy3700]

It's probably over

[@pm5206]

What’s over? Storm season does not officially end until 30 November.

[@starizstar5135]

​@@pm5206I don't think that this season is over we'll probably get to sara or something

[@pm5206]

@@starizstar5135 Very likely. I predict 11-16 more storms this year.

[@starizstar5135]

@@pm5206 yeah

[@MrWarrenRetro]

It can be season like 1988,

[@williamtaylor4289]

Quack quack Sahara dust

[@gregd4633]

David, not to be rude but it seems like you’re trying to play the middle of the field game. What I mean is that you’re trying to gain views by playing the middle of the road because you have been visiting other channels seeing viewers complaining about the season being overhyped. But I’m going to make this point very simple and short because I know you don’t like long worded comments. You know this season will be very hyperactive, you know right now we’re in the dead zone of the season where activity slows down. This is why I always told you to stick with forecasts instead of just hurricanes because you’re going to get desperate for views, and that’s what you’re doing right now. So you have a choice to make, you can choose to be desperate for views and I’ll take my inside information and move forward with someone who will appreciate it or you can do what’s right. But I will not have my name or my family name attached to anything like this. My job is to save lives, I don’t care about views or anything like that. And when I posted that important information for everyone in your last video and you blew it off like it was too long for you to take time out and read then my mind started changing. People like Mitch West and others don’t have to fight over views, because they naturally come because people trust them. They just don’t focus on hurricanes, they do general forecasting and add in tropical activity when necessary. But what you’re doing is desensitizing people and when danger comes, they not going to believe it because they rather listen to people like yourself than experts with NHC/NOAA and NWS

[@WeatherForce2024]

I'm not trying to be disprate for views dude. I mean look at the model guidance please and the ensembles. Rate to see late August very quiet.

[@gregd4633]

@@WeatherForce2024 What did I tell you about dependency on model guidance? Because model guidance is only a small tool in a huge toolbox

[@WeatherForce2024]

@@gregd4633 Yes i understand that my friend Even talked to me about it and he even said this to me "you can not base your forecast off of one model and have to look at guidance" So I admit here I was in the wrong I'm going to stop undercasting, I'm just worried that if I hype up stuff I'll be called out for it.

[@suzannecermy3700]

Bust,overhyped

[@WeatherForce2024]

I’m starting to believe that each passing day.

[@pm5206]

What “bust”? 80 lives lost? 10 billion dollars in damage?

[@ger279]

​@@pm5206Yaaaaaaaaaann!!!!

[@NeoGrifforzer]

@@WeatherForce2024 things will get going.. EPAC went from 1 storm to July to close to total of 8 named storms as of mid August with potential Hector and Ileana later this month. WPAC started slow and JMA has named 7 TS since Maliksi.

[@cameroncotter-sm5dy]

Here's another guy who used a scare tactic on everyone about a hyper season he should feel ashamed for not knowing what he's talking about

[@dianareveron4576]

@@cameroncotter-sm5dy Who, not David???!!!! D.🇵🇷

[@WeatherForce2024]

What do you mean I don’t know what I’m talking about 😤