Ukraine and Russia: From Civilized Divorce to Uncivil War with Paul D'Anieri

Drawing on research presented in his recent book, Ukraine and Russia: From Civilized Divorce to Uncivil War, 2nd Edition (2023), D’Anieri will explore the factors that led to Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. The war has eliminated few of these factors, and has exacerbated many of them. The question we must address is how can peace be maintained in the long term if the underlying causes of the war remain in place? A significant portion of the wars in history are accounted for by the same states fighting over and over. Therefore, and as the failure of the Minsk process shows, merely reaching a cease-fire will likely be insufficient to produce enduring peace. What possibilities exist for establishing long-term security in the region, and what are the most challenging obstacles to reaching that goal? Will redrawing of boundaries help or hurt? What about admitting Ukraine to NATO or providing other security guarantees?

[@joshuapaul2022]

Well, it's a quote from The Time article. Zelenskyy top advisers say about him: “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options . We’re not winning. But try telling him that. It is immovable, verging on the messianic.” One Austrian artist was in a similar state in 1945. Biden administration doesn't see Ukraine beyond a spring next year.