Ukraine War Q&A Series: How Long Can This War Last? || Peter Zeihan

[@MichaelDavis-cy4ok]

"Peace is that brief, glorious moment in history when everyone stands around reloading." -Thomas Jefferson

[@paulbradford6475]

...Said the governor of Virginia as he galloped away from the state house when the British were approaching.

[@edwardgiovannelli5191]

@@paulbradford6475 maybe he was reloading?

[@thestigisme2349]

Going to get his dry powder

[@paulbradford6475]

@@edwardgiovannelli5191 No, he actually rode away in haste.

[@paulbradford6475]

@@thestigisme2349 More likely he was powdering his wig.

[@Flyingclam]

I still cant get over the child kidnapping thing. The russians who fought and despised the ottomans have now become them

[@rick6672]

Brother that's not true. The real war against Russia is in the media

[@ChIGuY-town22_]

As a father, this made my heart ache.

[@blakebutlin657]

whats worse is people are either defending it or even denying that its happening

[@Emanon...]

When has the Russians ever treated civilians as human beings? Like. Ever.

[@geoffrobinson]

sorry, but don't believe propaganda from either side

[@paulfay357]

As a heavy equipment mechanic who started out as an M1 Abrams tech back in the 80s, I am kinda amused when I see Russia bringing out their 50 year old machines. Unless they have completely torn down each of those machines and refurbished them, they are garbage. Anything made with rubber or plastic is trashed and will cause a near 100 percent failure rate for every one of them. That would be all of the hoses used for fuel, oil, coolant, and hydraulic oil, plus all of the wiring and anything used as a seal. Mice and rodents love eating wiring and making nests inside of machines. For every decrepit old Soviet machine you see rolling out into the battlefield you can imagine a whole network of people required to keep that thing operational. From parts suppliers, to truck drivers to mechanics and a whole ton of logistical folks. Having this old garbage roll out onto the field is a hidden blessing for the Ukrainian forces.

[@jerrykreindler5460]

This is a very important point!

[@ryanshout8652]

Thanks for sharing!

[@jdlessl]

And yeah, those old tanks may be able to be put in the field, but the western-supplied infantry anti-tank weapons were already making mincemeat of Russian armor, and when the UA starts putting Challengers, Abrams, and Leopards into action, those old tanks will fare even worse than the Iraqis' did. And all the effort and money Russia put into restoring them will be completely wasted.

[@RichardChappell1]

They don't have to be good - they just have to get to the front and take out a few Ukrainians. They have so many they can deplete the Ukraininan military that way.

[@allanmarks2150]

Good comment. It will be difficult for a Russian mechanical to fiz a broken Russian tank that is in Ukraine.

[@MadJustin7]

Taking people's children like that is truly evil.

[@nicholassmith7984]

'Truly evil' is Russia's MO.

[@yoooyoyooo]

Also you know what Ukraine did about children that said they wanted to go to Russia publicly. They put them on some sort of "kill list". That list is full of people that talk about what Ukrainians in less than favourable manner. Many people on that list were actually killed. Anything like this you ever hear on one side check what other side says. Both sides are lying a lot to make other side turn out as bad as possible, but on some issues you can discern the truth if you want to by hearing the both sides.

[@yoooyoyooo]

Don't be naive an just eat whatever you are served. What made me very careful of what I believe in this war was Robert Sopolsky video that he put out sometime at the begging of this was. It's just about how war propaganda works and it's a gem that everyone in the world should watch. It should be thought i schools.

[@raggedcritical]

@@AftercastGames The "context" is that the Russians are taking these children back to Russia and purposely parceling them out as far away from the Ukrainian border as they can. What "context" excuses that?

[@fguocokgyloeu4817]

@@AftercastGames In what context is absconding with children, even orphans, and erasing all records of it so they can never be reunited with the remains of the family you tried to kill off, an acceptable action?

[@pedrososap]

That last bit was the most somber thing I heard in a LONG time... I feel sorry for those kidnapped children and their parents must be going crazy

[@lukaszmalinowski8675]

A lot of them are orphans ( unfortunately) ....

[@wikingagresor]

Their parents are probably already dead...

[@Cygnus888]

I personally feel only hate. Towards russians. Every time I hear about the atrocities they have committed, I have to remind myself that not every russian is evil.

[@wojteks4712]

Yes but he s exaggerating the number and impact. We only talk about children kidnapped from OCCUPIED territories, so majority of next generation is unharmed and this ISN'T last generation of Ukraine. That ending was a bit much

[@lukaszmalinowski8675]

@@wojteks4712 Well thing is , Ukarinian's have much bigger problems at the moment to worry about future....

[@Jay.Kelly0625]

Peter is just proving the point of how this war is being fought for the existence of Ukraine itself, as a country and a population. The motivation they have to fight is existential and nothing less. Slava Ukraine.

[@teddybearroosevelt1847]

Let me disagree with you. I think the country that used to be Ukraine is being destroyed, while all Ukrainians who can flee do so (thereby adding to the workforce of EU countries and detracting from their own country’s economy). This is going to take at least several decades for the country to recover from, at which point climate change will be dominating the headlines. Russia is one of the best positioned countries for that era. Yeah what a wonderful thing this war is (if you work for the US mil-ind complex i do understand if you think it’s a good thing though)

[@Spencer0225]

Who cares

[@GaryAJMartin]

They have such a will to fight, and yet not to populate their country. The irony.

[@jmorel42]

​@@GaryAJMartin not too many people are aware of the problem of demographics. Russia also has extremely low birth rates

[@GaryAJMartin]

@@jmorel42 it’s a widespread problem to be sure. But Ukrainians are so patriotic, what is more patriotic than creating more countrymen? And yet they don’t. It should have been the number one priority for patriotic people. They seem so eager to die for the country, why not be eager to create life? It’s hard? So? So is war. But creating life is so much better. And with the blessing of God. Go forth and multiply.

[@andersbjrnsen7203]

its totally mindboggling how much materiel and ordnance a war like this consumes. Here in Norway, we have a couple of pretty high level armament producing companies, building things like part of AMRAAM and NASAMS and we (like everybody) also have ammunitions producers. Before 2022 these were only just getting by, per 2023 they are doint doube or triples shifts, deseprate for manpower and raw materiales/parts, and can still produce nowhere close to what they could sell. I guess the same is true all over western europe and the states, this war just consumes ammo at an astonishing rate, and thats with the ukrainians trying to be frugal.

[@george2113]

If russia is reduced, will Norway take the naval base back?

[@Paerigos]

@@george2113 Finland will likely be first one to demand at least corridor to north see... for there to be something given to norway Finland would have to get back Petsamo.

[@george2113]

@@Paerigos Olavsvern is a decommissioned Royal Norwegian Navy base located just outside the city of Tromsø. It is located along the European route E8 at the entrance to the Ramfjorden from the Balsfjorden. Sorry I forgot the correct name. Greetings to any Bergs in Norway and indeed all Norwegians.

[@xifel72]

Same over here in Sweden. Hägglunds (the ones you get your CV90 from) are ramping up the production 600%

[@george2113]

@@xifel72 let me get back to you on that after some research

[@ShadyRonin]

Me: I feel hopeful about 2023 Peter: *uploads new video

[@wanderingstar2717]

He’s just a bundle of joy

[@StormyDog]

If you go back over his old videos on this war, he's been mostly wrong. But he sounds confident every time. Beware of false confidence.

[@hemlock40]

Yes, Peter's messages include that Europe will fail in a few years, Germany will cease to exist as its industry collapses from energy starvation. Russia is teetering on the brink of economic collapse but at the same time can destroy Ukraine over a decade-long war. Renewable energy will globally grind to a stop in short order because of a shortage of copper, lithium, and other minerals. Brazil is on the brink of mass famine because it can't get fertilizer anymore. China's CCP is ready to sacrifice 500 million people in a war just to stay in charge while the economy collapses. Australia is just a massive tinderbox due to climate change...

[@urtyp6596]

Good points Cheers

[@Apjooz]

How do you know he's good at long term demographic stuff? Most of that has not yet played out.

[@EPFForsyth]

I am a veteran, and I was an EOD Sergeant for a very long time. Peter is stunningly good at his job. Actually he is scary good, as he has some information and applies it in easy to digest bits. Many do not realize just how important logistics are in war.

[@rexmann1984]

03 here, they're stealing kids man. WTF. If we're gonna do this we need to do it now. The hair sniffer just doesn't have the balls to pull the fuckin trigger.

[@zopEnglandzip]

How is he scary good? This whole episode was crafted around the premise the Russians have "several million" armoured vehicles

[@george2113]

@@rexmann1984 the Republicans are on Putin's side. That's short slighted and unpatriotic. Putin's greed won't stop and he's not Alexander the great .

[@andersbjrnsen7203]

@@zopEnglandzip well they DO have a lot of armoured vehicles stockpiled..

[@chris-ryan]

​@@andersbjrnsen7203 They don't have the people to run them though, The Russian population is also in decline.

[@bumpy783]

“Germany’s thin crust.” Germany’s military hosts an army whose average age is 42 years old. Their defense mister’s work was already done before her arrival.

[@MT-su2lq]

What also means that some years given germany's army will extremly modern because they MUST now turn and fix it. There is a big backup in the population about that. For everyone who put his face in a camera and talked against it there are dozens which reconsidered their position and support the army. Because IF one country can identify and understand imperialistic fascism and its tricks... then its germany and its people.

[@Waverlyduli]

May that deep first hand national experience translate as wisdom in terms of self defence and Germany can remediate its lack of capability. 0:02

[@ryelor123]

I think countries like Germany just expect former major colonial powers like France and the UK to build massive armies using the populations of former colonies that they have good ties with. Of course the "tolerant" people of Germany will throw a hissy fit when they see the race of the reinforcements.

[@0xCAFEF00D]

@@MT-su2lq Clearly not. It's not like Russia has had a drastic political shift since the war started. Putin has been quoting fascist for decades (Ivan Ilyin) and was supposedly a fan already in the 80's. Germans were fine buying cheap fossil fuels from Russia before this as eastern europe cried that it's strategic suicide. These kinds of calls happened before Nordstream 1 and these projects had big public support in Germany. I think Crimea was a pretty strong signal of Russian intentions. If Georgia wasn't enough for you. Really Crimea should have been the most obvious stop signal for that. And consider the reason it's built like that. It for sure isn't because it's much easier to build pipelines under the sea, it's to avoid paying transit rates to Poland. USAID claims underwater pipeline is only 1.9 times in 2001. So it's certainly an economic win for a self-interested Germany if you just consider money going to the east as lost. I don't believe Germans give a shit about anything east of the country. But I'm confused about the comments Zeihan made about the defense minister. First of all who is he referring to? The Chancellor selects and appoints ministers (appointments are made by parliment also, so you can't really pin that on a single person). And I can't find any sign that Olaf Scholz is a woman who wanted to dismantle the army. Partially true with Merkel aswell. I tried searching quite well, can't find anyone but Zeihan who claims this but without even a name it's harder.

[@terrycole472]

Ukrainian videos show frontline troops with grey hair. One tank instructor was 53. What you describe is a cadre military. Given early total male mobilization - like that of the Ukraine, and very unlike Russia's - expect Germany's framework to be rapidly complete.

[@andymontemayor175]

Santayana said it best "only the dead have seen the end of war"

[@JinKee]

The guitar guy?

[@unfgreen]

Plato didn’t get that from a guitarist. He copied it from a drummer.

[@sniegasx]

Updated video we need, please!!!!

[@gregkelly2145]

One thought about Russia's ability to maintain conflict for long periods. Those long duration low intensity conflicts were in the Czarist age where there was clear succession and governmental continuity. When Vlad goes he has no successor (as anyone capable of doing the job has met an untimely end already) . This will likely lead to chaos and possibly civil war between factions.

[@serafinacosta7118]

That is an interesting take. 😊

[@serafinacosta7118]

And anyone returning from the battle fields might add up fuel to the discontent.

[@stanbatchelor810]

1990s, part 2

[@michaziomek]

I'm sorry, but I have to call BS on the 'millions' of stuff that can be realocated into the battlefield. How are you going to get it there and get it operational when the industry is already struggling now. CovertCabal physically counted al of the meaningful inventory and came in at approximately 6000 old tanks that 'may' be considered for refurbishment (out of the reported 12.000)

[@fguocokgyloeu4817]

I think he must have misspoke there because no source anywhere asserts that Russia has millions of vehicles, let alone combat vehicles, unless you count cars and trucks that they could commandeer.

[@repo445-d4h]

Agreed. CovertCabal did a fantastic video highlighting that while Russia does have deep reserves it isn't limitless and they aren't things that can readily be brought to bear.

[@SignalCorps1]

The ‘millions’ might have been a euphemism for ‘shit-tons’ or butt-loads’, That said, Russians moth-ball everything, so there is a lot of equipment all over Russia. Whether or not they can get them into fighting shape and get them to the battlefield are both huge question marks.

[@kellychuba]

it was literary license. Think seventy years of reserves if you like.

[@SkyRiver1]

3911 TOTAL tanks in storage, at present, according to the same source.

[@Pilvenuga]

As someone who is classified as "eastern european" by the germans i have understood better what our ancestors built for the Soviet Union when we were subjugated by them. Peter puts things into their place, really.

[@urtyp6596]

Are you in Germany? Where is Germany headed to in your opinion? Cheers

[@txrx1060]

@@urtyp6596 pretty tough to say! I frequently yoyo between this country is degenerating and we’ll make it! Demographics are definitely not in our favor.

[@richardvaldes3959]

@@txrx1060 almost as if some group is intentionally flooding europe with waves of migration. Hmmm I wonder

[@loveistheanswer123]

@@txrx1060 time to accept reality for what it is and begin reproducing and thinking long term

[@AFuller2020]

He said this would be over in a month…..boy were you wrong.

[@johnkarl7513]

My morning coffee and a video from Peter, catching up on the world around us... The best way to start my day... Thank you!!!

[@vancebison]

with ya!

[@karltanner3953]

Nothing like a morning coffee and news about indiscriminate, inhumane violence on the other side of the world lmao

[@SignalCorps1]

Same

[@godschild6694]

And add in time in the Bible and prayer with God. Information and spiritual wholeness

[@hardcorecynic961]

@@godschild6694 and while you do that maybe ask him why he hates and doesn't give a shit about Ukrainians. Because if he doesn't hate Russians and Ukrainians, but loves them like a compassionate god should, then there's a Massive problem with your god isn't there? (And if he hates them both, or one or the other, that's also a problem isn't it?) And to cite god at all in the comments on a video that talks about the Russians stealing children, or basically commiting the most "un-religious" and despicable acts possible to humankind, is just plain ridiculous. Religion is a stain on humanity that needs to be erased, just the thought process itself of religous people is extremely dangerous nowadays. "Just pray to god and everything will be all right!" Don't you think there are Ukrainians praying to god right now for help? They might be getting western help but they are still losing thousands of people daily, both civilian and military, and women and children are getting killed and women r@ped and whatever other atrocities the Russians are commiting. ALL of this by people praying to the SAME god too, which is the same god you are talking about, no? So, who's side is he on? Riddle me this: If a Russian soldier is afraid to go into a battle, and so prays to god for strength and courage in the battle ahead, and then wins the battle killing many Ukrainians, isn't that okay? He's just praying to the SAME god to ask his side for help, right? Hopefully you see the ridiculousness of citing god when talking about war, although I know you won't lol. Maybe one day I can get through to one of you nuts, then I can die happy. Anyways, awesome video as always Peter, I look forward to them daily, thank you.

[@bartman7144]

It never hurts to consider things realistically. Still, God bless Ukraine and it’s people!🇺🇸🇺🇦

[@SuperMorriso]

Listening to this while sitting in Kyiv, makes me shivering. But it is the sad truth. Glory to this unfortunate country.

[@josephkenosky]

Peter ya gotta account for the fact that corruption and general incompetence mean that those tanks in storage are going to need a lot more than just adding optics. In some cases they had been taking parts off old stored tanks to fix ones in service because troops were either too afraid to report issues to superiors or there simply wasn’t going to be an allocation of new parts to put on stored tanks because they needed those parts for Ivan to sell on the black market

[@josephkenosky]

Also Russia probably doesn’t have several million armored vehicles in stockpiles. I don’t think any military on earth does. If they did they wouldn’t be using Ukrainian farmers’ little tractors and scooby-doo vans to transport supplies and troops

[@newsgeekus1216]

Or don’t exist or missing engines.

[@khulgarulfsson8067]

You did warn us but damn! The last one was dark with dark on top and then some. 😢

[@Troph2]

No, they do not have 'millions of armored vehicles'. The T72 fleet WAS 2032 of all variations before the invasion. From confirmed visual losses 304 T72b3 and 1000~ of all variants have been lost as of last week May 16.

[@usecriticalthinking243]

He’s talking about MLTV’s BMP’s and their version of humvees

[@Troph2]

@@usecriticalthinking243 Even Then only 35,000 bmpt2 were ever licensed. How many are still in russian hands and operational.

[@foo-foocuddlypoops5694]

@@usecriticalthinking243 Counting everything from MBTs down to bicycles, no nation in modern history has possessed “millions” of armoured vehicles.

[@Lycurgus1982]

You know it has a degree of truth when it doesn't make you feel optimistic. That is one of the reasons I visit this channel.

[@antbrown9066]

Thanks Peter - enlightening but chilling

[@george2113]

Perspective is valuable

[@markrice41]

Oh, you are such a ray of sunshine this morning!

[@fredyyfredfreddy]

Several million armoured vehicles?...no

[@sonneh86]

Highly doubt that figure

[@mann8098]

I thought that they only had Scooby-Doo vans? I guess Peter got new updated information?

[@appatitthita]

Russia has up to 10,000 tanks “moldering” in its storage sites, and they are often in horrific shape. A main reason for this is a familiar one in Russia: corruption. Ukrainian military intelligence claims that only about 10 percent of the tanks in Russian warehouses are serviceable, noting that “optical devices and electronic containing precious metals were stolen from the combat vehicles,” some of which were “completely dismantled,” even lacking engines. So Muscovy has just about a thousand serviceable outdated tanks in storage. Ukrainians have already destroyed more than a thousand modern Russian tanks, and it won't be much of a problem to destroy a thousand of long-outdated ones.

[@grunt6799]

He's including all the HotWheels in Russia with armor on them.

[@SamiKotiranta]

Ten of thousands at best...

[@First.nameLastname]

Watching again 1 yr later. Peter is legit.

[@jmpersic]

Heart-wrenching video. Makes me happier that I live in the USA, and that my great grandfather worked so hard and sacrificed so much to get his family over here. I'd have grown up under communism and been through war myself otherwise. Really makes you think.

[@pearlsammo1638]

Not sure you fully understand how evil the US government is.

[@incognitotorpedo42]

If my grandfather hadn't come to America with 4 dollars in his pocket in 1902, I'd have grown up in a Soviet satellite hellhole. (Assuming I'd been born and survived childhood.)

[@concretejungle9608]

Yep, russia is cancer of our world and having misfortune of being within its reach means you have no chance for normal prosperous and free human existence .. unless you stand up and defeat russia , crush it to the point it cannot destroy and genocide nations out of existence any more . That’s what Ukrainians are going now

[@jamesmcmasters9392]

Peter the next Highlander Zeihan and hello from Germany 🇩🇪 with Love 🇩🇪 ❤️ ❤❤❤❤❤

[@CrusterfunkShenanigans]

I might be weird, in fact I am weird, but even if the info is so dark and uninspiring , I do feel more at ease knowing what is up than having to completely guess, so thanks again Peter! Greetings from a bit more informed Dutchy!

[@rudedude1686]

If you wanna know "what's up" then find channels like "the duran" "the new atlas" and colenel douglas macgregor ...you're being lied to by an absolute mo/*n. But maybe you like living in a lie..

[@abcxyz123]

@@rudedude1686 don't assume bad intention of wanting to be lied to. Instead informing is enough, such as you providing these channels. I do agree Peter isn't all that pure as it appears sometimes, he definitely has biases he lets through but tries to hide with his beautiful speech. It's good to consume different sources and on some things he's flat out wrong - but in this video he's more accurate than on some other topics. Let us know what you think

[@CrusterfunkShenanigans]

@@rudedude1686 yeah so why should I listen to you than, taking your advice? from all the resources I consume news from and things I see and hear around me he is not saying really outlandish stuff, but rather a lot of things that make complete sense to me, but hej it might be my IQ level 🤣

[@PinkFZeppelin]

@@rudedude1686 Your English is pretty good for a non native speaker 😉

[@rudedude1686]

@@abcxyz123 Well, I agree with you mostly. I have to say I'm especially "allergic" on what Zeihan is saying, in part because there are some great people, great channels that tell us the truth...and they're being silenced and deplatformed and shadow banned and censored...and this ..grifter, this fraud (or maybe he really believes what he says is true, idk..) is getting more views. I don't know if you've seen Zeihan on Joe Rogan, but Joe's cringe face every other minute when listening to Zeihan, says it all. He's waisting our time with his b*s...to much going on, limited time and also limited space in our brains :)

[@petenztube8592]

What a cheery start to the day.

[@davidshanahan5134]

Russia does NOT have several million more armoured vehicles in reserve. I think the pine-scented air is getting to Peter.

[@jmolofsson]

Zeihan misspoke. Clearly! He would need a script to follow... 😉

[@jebes909090]

Ukraine is getting stuff that the us and nato spent trillions developing. I dont think the russian military has spent a trillion in its whole existence

[@TheVeritas2100]

@@PatrickEgan-kv9gv ***he quickly gets WAY out of his lane in military matters.*** - TRUE! *** Russia is worse off than he realizes militarily.*** - AND who say so ? The American MSM media dweebs ? LOL !

[@curtisep5885]

Thanks for making my Monday a little brighter👍

[@joebelcaster6240]

I'm loving your updates Peter, please link some of the resources you use to find this kind of information

[@caferpeksen9334]

You explained a lot things a one video. Thank you Peter

[@wave641]

It's the definition of genocide, basically.

[@fguocokgyloeu4817]

Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (a) Killing members of the group; (b) Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group; (c) Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part; (d) Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group; (e) Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group. Yup, hits at least 4 of 5.

[@xandr13]

@@fguocokgyloeu4817 Yep, all checks out.

[@gaoxiaen1]

@@fguocokgyloeu4817 Pikers. China is hitting 5 out of 5.

[@rudedude1686]

Yeah, and the Earth is flat ... you wouldn't recognize the truth if it hit you in your forehead

[@jayjones7891]

Nailed it!

[@soulisthe1]

Zeihan you are a mage, love to listen to you, thanks for your input!

[@wperfect]

Grand wizard

[@damien2198]

he is a tool esp his anti-China bias

[@here_for_the]

A 'mage' who censors his posts from reality.

[@Martin-qm2lg]

How bleak and dark. But Ukraine must be victorious!

[@JoggingWithForks]

@1:42 "They still have several million more armored vehicles..." No. They do not. They have thousands of armored vehicles in varying state of decay. No nation on earth, not even the Americans, have MILLIONS of armored vehicles at their disposal.

[@charleshill7184]

Happy Monday!

[@natashamoskalenko5200]

we will rebuild and reconstruct, Peter, Ukraine has surprised the world already and it will again!

[@jmolofsson]

Finland's fertility rate rose through the roof after WWII. So will Ukraine's. Finland's victory was very ambiguous, its only gain a retained, although precarious, independence. Ukraine has good hopes for a much luckier post-war era!

[@theswede5402]

Do a peace deal and let Russia have the eastern part is the only option unless you want to lose the whole country or start WW3.

[@appatitthita]

Yes, we will. We have miraculously survived centuries of oppression, without any international support. With all the worldwide support, we are now destined to thrive, as a tree springs back up when no longer held down. Demographic collapse is worse for rich countries with high salaries and pensions. In Ukraine, state social support is shambolic anyway, so its loss won't be a big problem. Incredible lateral social cooperation (asabiya) forged during the war will compensate for it. And much of support is already provided by huge Ukrainian diaspora in Europe and elsewhere.

[@BuddyLee23]

Ya, Ukraine, just surrender, er, I mean, make peace and you can keep a neutered rump-state. All of us pseudonymous YT commenters are totally legit and not sponsored by geopolitical rivals of the West. Whoo hoo! Peace and rearmament for everyone!

[@urban_housecleaner9454]

​@@jmolofsson sounds like you guys are watching too much CNN😂

[@joekerr3638]

I love hearing positive news in the morning.

[@rudedude1686]

You mean lies that fit to the narratives deep seated in your head by the omnipresent propaganda of the Western mainstream media?

[@russellhltn1396]

I think the real question is Russia's will to fight. Russia is hurting. Putin is old. I doubt if he'll live for decades, assuming he's not ousted first because of the hurt sanctions have caused. What viewpoints will the next administration bring? After all, the Soviet Union did withdraw from Afghanistan.

[@ron88303]

He will end up killing more Russians than had he sat back and waited for someone to invade them.

[@vancebison]

He wont, hes got a few years left at most. I dont think the sanctions will make that change, and the next administration will definitely be another putin, he'll make sure of that.

[@billcichoke2534]

He's not going to be ousted, so that fantasy night as well be shut down. The Russian people know that losing this conflict DOES mean the end of Russia, which Peter doesn't get or want to admit to. They're in it to win it, or die trying. And they aren't dying as fast as the Ukrainians and their foreign mercenary troops.

[@ryanzucker8345]

Domestically, Russia’s economy APPEARS to be doing okay for now. The costs of goods hasn’t increased much, so the average Russian citizen isn’t suffering at all. Whether the prices are being kept artificially low or not is another question, and how long that will last is yet another. Where Russia really suffers economically is the price they pay for what little resources they can still import- that costs them a serious premium now. Putin probably only has another 10 or so useful years left in him. By that point, if he isn’t dead yet, he will probably not be president anymore. So the really interesting and scary question is what happens to Russia once Putin is gone.

[@thomasherrin6798]

​@@ryanzucker8345 Russia's economy is not doing well, the sanctions to Russia's energy sector only kicked in in December 2022 and every month since then they have posted significant losses (These losses are compiled by Russia so may even be worse) and the money in their wealth fund will be gone this year, they can tap into their FX reserves but then will be limited by what they can pay for imports, their gold reserves are large by comparison but not for paying a countries bills, they do not have a large enough economy to wage a large scale war, had Mainland Europe not been dependant on Russian Energy then Russia would have been bankrupt already as energy sanctions could have been applied at the start of the war, the people who replace Putin will have the same mindset as Putin, but the economy will not be able to finance their expansionist ambitions!?!

[@stevew6141]

It’s bleak out here- Your better off in the woods, I wouldn’t come out again if I found such a peaceful place Peter!!

[@mats66]

There is the "Hundred years war" that lasted 116 years with some periods of truce. So it can go on for some time..

[@thomasherrin6798]

Russia already lost the war on 100 days it's fighting for how much it is going to be humiliated by, the West can pull the plug on Ukraine but it is very unlikely to do so as it has invested so much in Ukraine's defence already!?!

[@PolishBehemoth]

Falae comparison.The hundred years war was a series of wars with different leaders and way different technology. If they had long range missiles it wouldve lasted way shorter time period.

[@jimcripps3612]

Boy you sure are are one Job's Comforter. Easier I guess than being an optimist. Regards, Jim the Brit in NI UK

[@Thecando]

Thanks for your interesting videos and insights. This is the first time that I think so have heard that Russia has “Millions” of armored vehicles. I would definitely like to get a source or more in-depth on your train of thought.

[@NorthernStruggler]

PZ... My man. Another great video...

[@asterixdogmatix1073]

Peter, you are contradicting yourself slightly. You talk of corruption, but then say the Russians have millions of armoured vehicles in reserve. Question. What do you think those armoured vehicles have been doing for the last 31 years? Answer, they have been sitting outside with no maintenance due to that budget being appropriated and what was left has had all removable parts stripped by Private Konscriptovich for scrap metal to make up for his pay being stolen by his commander.

[@Quickshot0]

They don't even have millions in the first place, there's at most a few thousand of those poorly or not maintained tanks and perhaps ten or twenty thousand others I think. It's still a lot of course, but obviously can't they keep burning through it like they have so far, as I think they've already gone through like 10k lost vehicles based on OSINT info from Oryx. And obviously they probably pulled out the easier to refurbish ones first, so it's probably only going to get worse from here. So yeah, Zeihan is overstating Russia's staying power, if anything the difference in equipment between Russia and Ukraine has narrowed a lot. Which means Russia can look forward to years of continued very high intensity conflict, unlike those hundred year more sporadic high-low conflicts he was talking about. And I'm dubious their military would be much to write home of after another year or two of that kind of a grinder... So I kind of figure things are actually getting more and more bleak for Russia as well actually, more so then Ukraine really.

[@LordRykard9376]

@@Quickshot0 He's overstating their staying power? I don't think so. People have been saying its bleak for Russia for over a year now. They just took Bakhmut and Ukraine is completely dependent on Western aid to maintain the war effort. I'd say Russia's chances of winning are far better than what American media states. Peter is on the money. Russia will likely win this after a long, protracted and bloody fight.

[@veronicamaine3813]

I have a fundamental problem with peters reasoning and it is this - if what he says is true, that Russia has a lot more resources to throw at this thing, than they have wilfully humiliated themselves for the past year; chosen to become pariahs, ruined themselves economically for decades and become subservient to Chinas will. Does that sound right to you? I feel that the reality is that Russia doesn’t have the spirit, stamina or resources to go on much longer and stay United. I could be wrong but at no point has Peter really addressed my first point. You could say corruption, but then why would you expect the situation to change - especially since the corruption that would need it be addressed is the same corruption that keeps Putin in power. Peter assumes an amount of logic in Human decision making that many civilisations have failed to exercise- why should Russia be any different?

[@Quickshot0]

@@veronicamaine3813 I think you make a good point on how this way of handling it is really terrible, if Zeihan position were accurate, yeah. And that this is also a sign resources might not be nearly as plentiful as Zeihan assumes.

[@othgmark1]

They don't have millions of armored vehicles they may have less than ten thousand that work. Given the fact that their strongest armor the tanks, cannot stand up to hand held weapons none of the others stand a chance. Simple drones will be able to take out most, no javelins or anything like that will be needed.

[@frankshifreen]

Tragic sad story but brilliantly told

[@andrewstevenson9594]

You're a cheerful bastard, Peter.

[@christianpostema3199]

Several million armoured vehicles? Seems heavily overstated

[@vrdrew63]

The United States spent more than a decade fighting wars in Vietnam and Afghanistan, in situations where they outclassed their opponents militarily by several orders of magnitude, and yet they ultimately lost both. Russia is, comparatively, in a much worse position in Ukraine. Russia's military might numerically outnumber that of Ukraine. But Russia simply cannot put every soldier into that fight. They have to maintain a military presence everywhere from Kaliningrad to Vladivostok, as well as retaining a significant fraction for internal security. Ukraine doesn't have that problem. Indications are that Russia is already scraping the bottom of the manpower barrel. And what dregs they do manage to come up with, they seem to throw away in wasteful, non-productive assaults. Ukraine is already showing signs of achieving a technological and tactical edge in every major front in the war. This is an edge which is likely to increase as more Western tech. reaches Ukraine, and Russian assets degrade do to a lack of spare parts. Lastly, Ukraine holds a significant internal moral (and morale) advantage. Ukrainians are fighting for their country and their lives. Russians are not (at least in the short-to-near term.) The crack up of Russia's military, and very likely their political system, is much closer than any of us realise. It might not happen in the next six weeks or even the next six months. But the Russians can't keep going for another six years.

[@ron88303]

Russia has exposed its ineptness in all phases of this invasion; in planning, in mobilization, and in execution. Putin will end up killing more Russians than had he just sat back and waited for someone to invade.

[@Hongobogologomo]

My worry is limited nuclear warfare becoming feasible. It would be easier to use nuclear weapons offensively to a very limited extent, like one or two detonations, because NATO would absolutely not risk escalating it into a full exchange. If anything, its the best move Putin could make. If he uses them first, nobody would dare use theirs and risk a counterstrike.

[@JamieEHunter]

Surely the difference is that whilst the US wars have been flawed both conceptually and in their execution, the US and her allies did have regard for the loss of civilian life? The Russians are, as can be seen in the case of Chechnya and in the Ukraine itself over the past twelve months, perfectly willing to level whole cities and displace millions of people to achieve their goal. That isn't a war that requires much in the way of skill; it's pure attrition and the numbers are on Russia's side.

[@karltanner3953]

@@JamieEHunter Ehh, I wouldn't say US held the lives of Vietnamese or Afghani civilians in very high regard. They showered Vietnamese jungle villages with napalm and land mines (even today, the people of Vietnam still lose limbs and lives regularly to unexploded landmines and grenades, 50 years after the war ended) and were willing to strike civilian targets with drones and missiles in Afghanistan if they smelt anyone allegedly harboring terrorists. You could argue Russia is even worse, as many of their attacks are deliberately targeting civilians, whereas US was mostly indifferent to collateral civilian casualties in an attempt to fight their perceived enemies. I wonder if the biggest difference between Ukraine and America's wars is terrain. The Vietnamese jungles and the mountains of Afghanistan offered the partisans fighting the invaders an incredible strategical advantage to wage guerrilla war. Ukraine is flat and empty. Not the type of terrain to yield itself to guerrilla tactics. The Vietnamese and the Afghani weren't drawn into static fronts, whereas Ukraine has no option but to keep a massive frontline going. It eats up resources, including human lives, like crazy, from both sides.

[@aklimar2208]

In Vietnam, the US used “Agent Orange” to kill hundreds of acres of crop land in North Vietnam resulting in millions of Vietnamese to starve. The My Lai Massacre saw US soldiers slaughter a North Vietnamese village of civilians. In Afghanistan, the US recklessly bombed a hospital killing doctors, nurses, wounded, and sick just to get one Al-Qaeda agent (who wasn’t actually there). The US conducted night raids on villages that regularly killed civilians, notably children. The brutality of the US against civilians is well documented.

[@youmakeitreal]

Reminds me of: "Change is enevitable, to struggle is an option"

[@vladimirskvortsov3881]

"... miners and children filtration camps ..." . Guys, with such deep knowledge of your enemy I wish you only the best luck.

[@tommyhuffman7499]

Your analyses are quite unique and fascinating. Interesting perspective.

[@triquepersonalwork6369]

I am an American living in Ukrainian and have been since 2020. I have not met anyone here in Ukraine that thinks this war will continue for multiple years, almost everyone thinks it is near the end.

[@rickclark7508]

I hope they are right. Is it their sentiment that it will end in Victory?

[@themeiafy]

​@@rickclark7508No one thinks like that (I am Ukrainian and I don't know what he's talking about). But I guess Zeihan is saying that we should give up already because we'll all die anyway?

[@paulsutton5896]

Yes. We spent the "peace dividend" several times over.

[@TessaTickle]

"yeah, let's just forget how i was saying just 3 days ago that Wagner is spent and its boss is an incompetent". The people of Bakhmut are unimpressed.

[@kkpenney444]

There* are* no people left in Bakhmut. What an accomplishment! Russia's 'captured' a hell scape.

[@falards]

That is so unbelievably sad about those babies.

[@ak-od7mf]

They just liberated bakhmut without being able to get anything to the front and also without soldiers, imagine if they had guns and soldiers with good morale instead of farmers equipped with shovels capturing town after town...

[@rudedude1686]

A thinking person here..on this channel? I can't believe this... you're like a unicorn here

[@Shatterfury1871]

70.000 dead or wounded for a 90.000 city ? Are you kidding me?

[@barbaracleverly9058]

Chilling but enlightening! Thank you! The world needs to hear this. Peter Zeihan covers the facts from the smallest ball-bearing to the biggest cruise missile but he doesn’t take into his calculations : spirit and patriotism. One sees why! How do you evaluate, let’s say, Churchill’s dogged bravery… Leonidas’s suicidal courage? I’d love to hear a reasoned Zeihan estimation of the outcome of the mighty Persian onslaught (either one) against the tiny Greek states led by Athens. View taken a month before swords were drawn. It would be riveting! I suggest a triumvirate to sort out the West’s martial problems: Trump, Zeihan and Colonel Douglas Macgregor. (Can I sit in and take the notes?)

[@joemancini2988]

Peter, one word: ball bearings. Russia can’t get them. Refurbished tanks? Not without ball bearings.

[@jerrykreindler5460]

Bang on!

[@dennisshaw7153]

I saw something where a company in India was supplying them.

[@othgmark1]

​@@dennisshaw7153that's the same as having no ball bearings.

[@rudedude1686]

Are you an id/*ot? Russia is flying into SPACE regularly and without problems. Are you suggesting they can't manufacture them? Is it the technology they don't have? Or raw materials? Or the Russians just don't know how the sphere actually looks like so they can "reproduce" it??? wt/ are you smoking?

[@someidiotwithnoname]

I agree on you on most of things but here I have to disagree with a few points - 1st -- Russia has a huge reserve of military equipment. This is debatable at best. We know from various footage that Russian tank reserve is more rust than tank. The USA has the ability to store it's equipment in the Nevada desert or other dry areas, Russia keeps it's stuff in what is practically a swamp and those include T-72 that didn't go through the modernisation proces. It is true that old 1950's equipment such as T-55 can be sent in quicker but can they truly and in what numbers? We are talking about 40+ tones of metal on the move and if the rust is not just some surface dot that metal will crumble along with something like suspension due to stress. Even T-72s are not immune to that. 2nd - Ammo has an expiry date and using 70 year old explosives is like playing Russian roulette. If I would open a box of lets say mortar shell and noticed they are "sweeting" I would run away from that box and forget it existed. Certain explosives, with high yield, can sweat nitroglicerine compounds, just like TNT, and to say those are unstable would be an understatement. At best what would happen is that those old explosives have lost their positive properties and wont work as intended, for example bullets will have shorter range. 3rd - EU doesn't have a developed military complex ... except ... France, England, Sweden (BEA Systems for example), Germany and Italy ... we might say even Poland ... now you could say - Ok but the quantity is an issue. - True. Now how did USA solve that problem in WW 2. By employing the civil industries like Chrysler, Ford, GM etc. etc. and one thing EU has more than Russia, way more than Russia, is civil industries that can scale up military production output. Will another Cold war stop the global warming? P.S. In case of all out war I actually think debt problems a lot of "Western" countries are in could become a bigger issue then ramping up military production.

[@noahway13]

Ok, ok... I'll volunteer to go over and help get the birth rate up.

[@Dontknowshit]

You are a discussing person

[@MrScrofulous]

No female on the planet more predatory than an orc-wife. Good luck, mate.

[@ron88303]

There's something to be said for quality over quantity.

[@ClownCarCoup]

@@ron88303 oooh! Sick burn 😂

[@steven4315]

Well that was a fun video.

[@crawkn]

The issue with refurbishing newer tanks isn't about it taking longer to service the optics and other higher-tech equipment, it is about Russia not having the technical capability of servicing them. This doesn't mean they won't service them ever, but the number will be limited by smuggled imported tech, higher cost, and availability of hard currency. Probably they have pushed what they can out already with compromised functionality. We've seen high tech equipment retrofitted with inferior consumer electronics, so they're already doing the best they can. The issue isn't how many armored vehicles are left to rebuild, it's whether the rebuilding can keep up with the rate of attrition. So far it can't.

[@nimz8521]

Also, the refurbished equipment is going to be used by conscripts with no experience.

[@jeremyogrizovich3247]

What great insights.

[@winj3r]

Russia does not have millions of tanks. They have thousands and most are in such poor state of maintenance, they are useless for any purpose, except as metal for a junkyard. Also, an old tank is not very useful in a modern conflict, because it's capabilities are so limited. But because it requires a trained crew and a supply chain with fuel and food, it probably causes more issues than what they are worth in the battlefield.

[@danielstockley5631]

He said millions of armoured vehicles, not tanks.

[@winj3r]

@@danielstockley5631 It still doesn't reach "millions"

[@danielstockley5631]

@@winj3r It does sound unbelievable, just pointing out he technically didn't say tanks.

[@doujinflip]

I wonder what he considers "armored". I don't imagine the RF trying to clear out Ukrainian AT teams rolling up in cash trucks and executive limos.

[@jasonkinzie8835]

This episode totally bummed me out.

[@gomertube]

Bahkmut fell yesterday and there’s no awareness about it in these comments. Just incredible levels of thought control by the media and state. I’ve never seen anything like it.

[@patricebertrand1146]

Because Bakhmut doesn't represent the whole war. It's a loss for Ukraine, but it's pretty insignificant if you look at how long the frontline is.

[@gomertube]

@@patricebertrand1146 That’s not what Zelenskyy said in front of the US Congress. He said it was vital to the entire war. Stop repeating neocon talking points.

[@patricebertrand1146]

@gomertube Haven't seen the clip of him saying that, so I can't really comment on it. Objectively speaking, I don't see a reason for the news to focus on it, giving how many other events that are happening in the front line.

[@crescent4996]

Almost every Western comment section is complete NPCs treating the war like sport cheerleading and deluded by a constant stream of mainstream propaganda who's only purpose is to keep moral support high in West populations so taxpayer money keeps flowing. MSM news is nothing but mocking Russia and saying how awful their army is and yet its been a stalemate for 8 months with Russia just taking the one city Ukraine promised to never retreat from. That's not being pro-Russia its called realism, but few grasp it.

[@gomertube]

@@patricebertrand1146 Name one place more newsworthy than Bakhmut. Please.

[@viper341]

I wish this stupid war would just end, there are no winners here

[@justinpaul3110]

What do you think that chances of Russia holding together in the future are? I've seen several videos questioning Russian internal cohesion and security.

[@theyux1]

Assuming Russia loses, the common consensus is A) Putin remains in power and Russia goes North Korea, ultimately becoming another puppet state for China B) Putin gets outmanuevered politically and is replaced likely by another kleptocrat and Russia likely still ends up as a Chinese puppet state. C) Popular uprising, fences mended somewhat with west. Russia's demographics are still terminal, every story ends with Russia becoming less powerful this is partially the argument for why Putin did this, this was his last big hope for a relevant Russia. Its worth noting terminal population is still a relative mid term thing.. Its possible in 200 years years Russia population will grow again same with China and Europe. Peter is generally speaking in 40-60 year terms when talking about terminal demographics.

[@hobblesofkarth3943]

Probably fairly good. Breaking up a country from within takes some pretty big stresses on the population like food crisis or major political division. Remember putin is still popular in the county, the war against Ukraine is still relatively accepted as righteous in russia. The population of russia has alot of suffering to do, at which point they will hate the rest of us first and onyl after time and extreme hardship would that sentimate turn against the government.

[@ryanzucker8345]

It seems Putin’s biggest supporters inside Russia are the elderly and they aren’t going to be around much longer. And for that matter Putin isn’t going to be able to be president much longer either. He’s probably only got another 10-15 useful years in him. A more interesting and potentially disturbing question is what happens to Russia when Putin is gone.

[@thomasherrin6798]

​@@hobblesofkarth3943 The sanctions on their energy revenue has only "kicked in" since 2022, since then they have been hemorrhaging money from their sovereign wealth fund and that will run out this year, they can use the remaining FX reserves but they need to pay for imports, and although they have a relatively large amount of gold that is not enough in itself to keep the country afloat for long and keep paying for an expensive war!?!

[@newsgeekus1216]

@@hobblesofkarth3943 Yea, I am old enough to remember Vietnam. Who knows what happens when you have 100s of thousands of mistreated soldiers coming back. On top of that You have outside deaths from the territories, “conquered lands”. 10% deaths from Siberia, under 1% from Moscow. Add in the burning down of recruitment centers. Authoritarian regimes are fragile, they seem super solid until they are not. As Peter says, this Russia’s to lose, but they can lose.

[@danew1666]

Intresting!

[@vt2788]

I like how you love to end with something horrific to keep us biting our nails. I used to hate it but I see now it is a sort of style that I am slowly gettimg used to 😂

[@ackbooh9032]

There is a kind of energy that comes with considering things are darker than we usually think. It's not glamourizing horrible situations, more getting up to a task I feel

[@vt2788]

@@ackbooh9032 True. But if we focus to avoid the worst outcomes, it may give us the chance to improve as a society... or something :)

[@SnakeHelah]

I love how everyone is the same "society" on the internet. But in reality a lot of us are from different countries and stuff so our outcomes are all on separate trajectories. @@vt2788

[@Gobothechairman]

Wow. That is really dark stuff.

[@alexandruraresdatcu]

Several million armored vehicles???? In which alternative universe do you live???

[@allanjgray1]

Sobering insights

[@pauldelray5839]

If an ceasefire can be agreed to and a demilitarized zone established, people will come back. This has been seen in Kyiv.

[@campfireeverything]

The "dark dark truly dark" part really does hit. Wowwee, it's dark.

[@dominicwroblewski5832]

We would do better if we heed the ancient saying "Si vis pacem, para bellum."

[@daledavies2334]

Wellllll, the Soviets were in Afghanistan for 8 years before giving up. How long was America in Vietnam and the French prior to that? The Pootlerstan has had more losses in Ukraine in one year than they did in Afghanistan in 8 years. Their materiels consumption has been huge, however as Peter has mentioned, a lot of what the Russians have tossed at Ukraine is fairly old supplies. They have sent a bunch of modern materiels after their first incursion was repulsed going to Kyiv.

[@gigas27]

Wow I had hope for Ukraine but this video was very eye opening. What a time to be living in right now…

[@coach3467]

Wow. 😞. That ended very depressively.

[@Miata822]

This makes it all the more important to do whatever needs to be done to decisively defeat Russia quickly.

[@RichardChappell1]

Hahahahahahahaha, And this how to play the Amricans into doing whatever the elites want.

[@Miata822]

@@RichardChappell1 This American has lived under the threat of Russian nukes for six decades. If they are not utterly defeated in this war, or the next one, or the next one, the day will eventually come when the bombs go off and our world collapses into chaos and death. There is a real chance to end this madness here and now. Time and time again the West has given Russia another chance to negotiate in good faith, uphold their treaties, and join the rest of the world. That has never worked and never will. It's time to bring down the hammer and simply demand that Russia submit.

[@christopherlee7334]

​@@RichardChappell1The strategic navy stands ready to set condition 1SQ for Strategic Launch upon receipt of a valid and authentic EAM. KILL THE BEAR! HOOYAH AMERICA! GIVE US THE ORDER!

[@rudedude1686]

@@christopherlee7334 Americans ...the most stu*id nation on Earth

[@nickhockings443]

People don't get depressed fighting for their lives.

[@walkonearthofficial]

“ Way to end with a Highpoint”

[@donixion4368]

The Russian state will not survive a 10, 20 , or 30-year war. Demographics for Russia are also a problem and despite their larger population, they also have a larger number of people leaving and a larger number of war dead than Ukraine. People have a tendency to look at Russia as a country that can simply take what it wants because it has so many resources. I suggest to you that they really do not have the resources necessary to take Ukraine and the belief by some in the west that the Russians do have the resources to take what they want was instilled by Russian Propaghnda. The only large resource the Russians have is lies and those are starting to wear very thin.

[@jonnytwocombs198]

Jesus where do you get your info from?

[@donixion4368]

@@jonnytwocombs198 First, I am not Jesus. More to the point, Russia's demographic problems were well known before the war, and given the high casualties and people leaving Russia to avoid mobilization, it's clear that Russia is in trouble. Russia is also now cut off from the world's largest economies and the technologies it needs. Russia does not have 10 years to fight a war before it is incapable of fighting at all. The longer the war goes on, the more damage will be done to Russia.

[@offgridcarnivore]

Evil is everywhere

[@JamieEHunter]

At what point is the 'defensible perimeter' no longer a perimeter but simply 'everywhere'? "They might come through Argentina to get to the Atlantic, sail to Spain and then move through Western Europe to get to Poland and then into Mother Russia! We need to seize Argentina to eliminate this risk!"

[@sumotony]

As per YTs like Vlad Vexler and Peter, there will no longer be any stopping point that doesn't rely on conflict and pushing back on Russia. Look at Japan, both China and Russia have continuously flown aircraft into Japanese airspace as provocations for decades. Putin's misstep, (the invasion of Ukraine) is probably going to take the wind out of Xi's Tiawan plans (he should pivot north and start taking "Russian"/historical Chinese lands.

[@matm4413]

it's a centuries-long tradition of schizophrenia originating from forms of rule mimicking previous Mongol terror and exploitation tactics

[@jmolofsson]

​@@sumotony Hi there! I'm glad to find someone who thinks Xi might prefer to leave Taiwan alone, at least for now, if Washington recognizes Chinese interests east of the Ural Mountains. This has been my secret hope.

[@ron88303]

One could argue that, given it's numerous military bases globally, the US defensible perimeter is already everywhere. But I am against the Russian invasion.

[@captainalex157]

​@@ron88303 yeah but these countries actually want US bases

[@landotter]

rebuilding will be quite a process.

[@anchorsaweigh9893]

Wars are easy to start but Difficult to end.

[@Briguy1027]

Wow, Peter was all flowers and daisies on this one.

[@cordos2362]

The last point on children's abduction is messed up. Revolting.

[@haroldfarquad6886]

Can you imagine how revolting the child trafficking is on the US southern border?!

[@rudedude1686]

@@haroldfarquad6886 yeah, but these nice people here don't care about that ..because the sentence doesn't contain the forsaken word "rrrRussia", you know, ...so it's perfectly normal for them to virtue signal about it, even though it's not true at all...only the western propaganda can make "genocide" out of simple getting a couple of kids out of a warzone for a couple of weeks ...how gullible and ignorant are people in the West?

[@Allaiya.]

Well this is so sad and depressing

[@Gutenmorgenside]

The old tanks make great target practice for the modern weaponry Ukraine has. Get those F-16's ready to fly. The Russians will try and 'freeze' the conflict, it won't work.

[@danielstockley5631]

In your honest opinion what's the game plan? Don't listen to reddit. The Russians have lost nowhere near the soldiers claimed. If your thought process is keeping the meat grinder going, that war of attrition is going to bring Ukraine to its knees before Russia who is still using a volunteer force while Ukraine is already having to round up conscripts.

[@here_for_the]

Its already working.

[@davidlemons5650]

How long will the war last? Well, if you read about Ukrain and Russia in about 1912, it is like it started before then. This war is already over 100 years old. It has simply intensified.

[@ron88303]

Hopefully President Briben has installed auto-destruct features in the planes so they be destroyed after the hostilities are over. He's already given billions of military hardware to one corrupt country.

[@here_for_the]

@@davidlemons5650 no David, this war was financed by NATO, starting in 2014, & ending when American taxpayers funds run out. Which will be about election time in 2024. This is just an exercise is weakening Russia by people known as NeoCons. Its really just Russia liberating the Donbas, that was being shelled by Nazi Bandera sympathizers for 8ys now. & Ukraine law wanting to ban all Russian language & writing, including letters in there alphabet. Be like trying to exterminate Mexicans from Arizona. & banning Spanish language. Trump will end the war, & stopping the death & destruction is paramount.

[@MelkorTolkien]

And here I was trying to get a positive take on this war. Admittedly I often think you're overly positive, but damn, this was a punch in the positivity gut.

[@bensmith5413]

The hottest of takes. Unfortunately zeihan is not the best on actual military knowledge.

[@chriscox8515]

Which part(s) is in accurate or incomplete?

[@doujinflip]

Nobody has several _million_ tanks waiting to roll again, there's maybe a quarter million armored fighting vehicles of all sorts globally and Russia would be at best 10k before last year.

[@bensmith5413]

@Chris Cox I will be kind and suggest he recorded this before alot of news came out. But beyond the f16 announcement, the g7 joint statement is huge. Basically g7 stating publicly they will back ukraine for as long as it takes. Alot of ammunition production is starting to ramp up in Europe. South Korea with their huge industrial capacity is rumored to being pressured to support ukr by usa in return for a more public nuclear deterrence role. Japan is now actively supporting. We haven't got to the numbers. If there are 1 million ukr under arms or training and 9 brigades of fresh assault units. They out number russia. They have had maybe 450-500 mobilized since the war started and say 250k casualties (I think casualties are actually under reported and ukr wounded have a higher chance of survival) then at most russia has maybe 200k men in the field. Maybe a similar number training but I doubt it as we haven't seen another mobilization. Just my 2 cents. Also remember ukr are motivated for this fight. They are fighting for their women and land. Russia is fighting for what?

[@gabrielgreen9883]

The hair untied looks great

[@peterflohr7827]

It's hard to deny, Ukraines demographics look bleak. Just as bleak as the russian performance on the battlefield and on the diplomatic front. The difference is that Ukraine demography is a problem in the mid to long term and Russia's abysmal performance in the short term.

[@jonnytwocombs198]

How do you know they're doing bad when you aren't there?

[@christopherlee7334]

So we do it the quick way. We start this planet over from ground zero. The strategic navy stands ready to set 1SQ for Strategic Launch upon receipt of a valid and authentic EAM. HOOYAH AMERICA. KILL THE BEAR.