ULTA Stock Is A Buy On Positive Risk Reward

  Рет қаралды 19,827

Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.

Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.

Күн бұрын

Пікірлер: 178
@joepistone8922
@joepistone8922 2 ай бұрын
Already own this..they buy back lots of shares and are an awesome company..great to have my stock picks backed by someone like yourself Sven
@dodid0
@dodid0 3 ай бұрын
Was analysing this stock myself last week. Also learnt about it thanks to Buffett. It's a great company, good margins, good ROIC , repurchases shares. On the watch list for sure until there's a bargain entry point.
@kathyrine-b6i
@kathyrine-b6i 3 ай бұрын
I feel investors should be focusing on under-the-radar stocks, and considering the current rollercoaster nature of the stock market, Because 35% of my $270k portfolio comprises of plummeting stocks which were once revered and i don't know where to go here out of devastation.
@SergioMartinez-i4n
@SergioMartinez-i4n 3 ай бұрын
Well as you know bigger risk, bigger results, but such impeccable high-value trades are often carried out by pros.
@uwerathsack
@uwerathsack 3 ай бұрын
People dismiss the importance of advisors until they are burned by their own emotions. I remember a couple of summers ago, following my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to assist my business stay alive, so I looked for qualified consultants and came across someone with the highest qualifications. She has helped me raise my reserve from $275k to $850k, despite inflation.
@VincentMason-y8r
@VincentMason-y8r 3 ай бұрын
This is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? I'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation.
@uwerathsack
@uwerathsack 3 ай бұрын
Caroline Suzan Olson is a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market.
@VincentMason-y8r
@VincentMason-y8r 3 ай бұрын
I just curiously searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon. Thank you
@stanislavgritciuk337
@stanislavgritciuk337 3 ай бұрын
Great analysis Sven, I like ULTA as well. I suggest one more value stock to analyze - Evolution ab, super compounder from Sweden
@JannyLuits
@JannyLuits 2 ай бұрын
Some experts say Palantir is the next Nvidia. I intend buying $200K worth of it soon. I’m well positioned with good blue chip companies and A.I stocks but my concern is how to hedge against inevitable crash.
@brucemichelle5689.
@brucemichelle5689. 2 ай бұрын
Not bad picks. Stocks like Tesla and NVIDIA still have some way up to go. It's always a good idea to go over it with a financial advisor. You might get new insights on how to go about it and that increases your chances of making huge profit.
@KaurKhangura
@KaurKhangura 2 ай бұрын
A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.
@NoorJari406
@NoorJari406 2 ай бұрын
This is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfoIlo allocation
@KaurKhangura
@KaurKhangura 2 ай бұрын
Her name is ‘’Aileen Gertrude Tippy’ can't divulge much. Most likely, the internet should have her basic info, you can research if you like.
@NoorJari406
@NoorJari406 2 ай бұрын
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
@helloken
@helloken 3 ай бұрын
3 Companies I consider high quality at somewhat reasonable prices are Lulu, Ulta, and AirBnB. I believe they are close to 'good companies at fair prices'. AirBnB is my favorite of the 3 even though I find ~17x to be on the pricey side of my preferences. I think Ulta is a solid choice. "You could do a lot worse". Also, I'm not convinced this is a Buffett decision. The quantity is very low and could be from one of the other Berkshire investment decision makers. Chubb and Oxy are for certain Buffett investments in my opinion and they fit his style. Thank for all of your investment ideas and thoughts Sven. I find your investing style and thought process fits mine the best out of all KZbinrs I have found. I have learned a ton from you!
@TheKatorosa
@TheKatorosa 3 ай бұрын
ABNB always has the risk of being banned in certain cities. Too risky
@SethMerriman
@SethMerriman 3 ай бұрын
Thanks for your videos!! I have a theory of my own that I've been telling my Friend about: I think bitcoin, Stock has been going sideways for longer because of the last double top bullrun of 2021, there were lots of people exchanging hands compared to the other bullruns where there were blow-off tops. So much trading there for months so I believe the resistance is much greater. And I believe that your prediction of going higher last bull market would've come to fruition if it weren't for the rate hikes and everything that compromised our lives during those 2 years.... I have managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Harry's Dent,, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape..
@ShahShubham-yg4ni
@ShahShubham-yg4ni 3 ай бұрын
The internet is filled with so many useful information about Harry s Dent crypto….
@animerealm1141
@animerealm1141 3 ай бұрын
I checked the name online and was able to find him, thanks.
@TainTsai-x2g
@TainTsai-x2g 3 ай бұрын
Over the years, I've been a part of numerous trading programs, sifting through a barrage of information. Yet, nothing has come close to the sheer clarity, depth, and precision of Harry’s Dent insights.
@NancyKWeber-c4x
@NancyKWeber-c4x 3 ай бұрын
The market has gone berserk! whether you're a newbie or a veteran trader, everyone needs a sort of coach at some point to thrive forward.
@bluecirrus4772
@bluecirrus4772 3 ай бұрын
I appreciate the professionalism and dedication of the team behind Harry's trade signal service.
@tamanousJP
@tamanousJP 3 ай бұрын
I bought in about six months ago. Have been dollar cost averaging in since with a 4% portfolio allocation. It’s like Costco for makeup. Metrics are very solid and membership is loyal and does return purchases. I’ll stay in for a few years and let it run.
@pennguino9137
@pennguino9137 3 ай бұрын
Thanks. I was seeing their growth a while back and it was impressive. Their sudden drop was surprising. Agree it may be time to test the waters
@kdcowboy9478
@kdcowboy9478 3 ай бұрын
I kind of like this pick and agree with your cashflow analysis. One concern I have is competition. What extra value does the customer get or perceive to get from going to these expensive physical locations to maintain?
@TheScaryGermanGuy
@TheScaryGermanGuy 3 ай бұрын
I'd say women go there to socialize and have a nice experience with their emotions enjoying the huge shopping possibilities.
@mahernajjar1255
@mahernajjar1255 3 ай бұрын
The whole luxury market is getting battered! LVMH, Burberry, Capri, kering, could you do a video covering the best investments in this space
@javierclement3047
@javierclement3047 3 ай бұрын
Can you elucidate more please ? Not saying Ulta is the worst stock, but Seeking Alpha is showing the next 2 years will Have NO growth or negative growth, and 3 years out only 3 analysts reporting and only 11% gain then. Why would I buy Ulta, a non-grower, at a high teens P/E when I can buy, say, GPN or APTV at low teens P/E with much better future earnings growth prospects ?
@swphilosophy3040
@swphilosophy3040 3 ай бұрын
Great question
@DylanTimothyDean
@DylanTimothyDean 3 ай бұрын
you think these guys are really going to predict how proftiable they are for the next 2 years get real. Low expectation make it easy to surpires to the upside. They are starting to open more stores in mexico and canada if they can show they can grow internationally it will be rerated. They are very profitable now and they are keen to create value for shareholders by buying back stock.
@alejandro1242
@alejandro1242 3 ай бұрын
Analyst job: decrease estimations when companies report bad estimations, increase estimations when the opposite happens. NEVER take financial decisions based on analyst. Consumer discretionary stocks are hammered right now on valuations mainly due consumer expending + high interest rates, but that can change in a few quarters and Ulta can easily recover the growth + multiples normalization.
@javierclement3047
@javierclement3047 3 ай бұрын
@@DylanTimothyDean it still doesn’t make sense why you would buy Ulta over GPN or APTV because you can apply the same logic to their businesses as well. Obviously there’s still a correlation between their expectations and reality and I’d rather be in the ones that are both CHEAPER and expecting better growth. Otherwise you’re just having blind trust that the company will turn around or have better earnings than expected.
@mikkelhansen3714
@mikkelhansen3714 3 ай бұрын
When comparing the products the amazon was only lower if you have a coupon
@alext1723
@alext1723 3 ай бұрын
Amazon do price matching. So for every product, they'll match the lower price of products sold at retailers or on other online shops. In past experience, we had to create special Amazon bundles, inexistant anywhere else, to allow our company setting the prices we wanted and bypass the price matching.
@alberto-vedovi
@alberto-vedovi 2 ай бұрын
Thank you Sven for the headstartn in the analysis. The stock has been on my watchlist for a while exactly when it popped up in the Buffets portfolio. I will dig it a little bit deeper here because a company operating in beauty is fairly defensive and might do well in most economic environments. If the details are what you are saying, it really represents a compelling investment in the long term.
@randyromano2854
@randyromano2854 3 ай бұрын
I'm curious where Ultas new membership and clients are coming from; not the US
@michaelday8838
@michaelday8838 3 ай бұрын
Seems like a decent investment. I owned but eventually sold for minor profit bc it’s outside my circle of competence. Reinvested in Occidental Petroleum seems like an easier bet over the long run.
@swphilosophy3040
@swphilosophy3040 3 ай бұрын
Oof. Occidental?? Why???
@michaelday8838
@michaelday8838 3 ай бұрын
@@swphilosophy3040 durable moat, deglobalization, commitment to buybacks. Should return 13-15% CAGR over 15 years. Also, Buffett betting huge on it makes me feel warm and fuzzy.
@tbone7679
@tbone7679 3 ай бұрын
Sephora is a madhouse when my wife goes in there. Anyway, beauty retail stores are the epitome of out of my area of expertise so nothing could possibly make me want to do it. Retail in general scares me as an investor, but this would have me doubting myself endlessly
@mariorossi2876
@mariorossi2876 3 ай бұрын
Hi Sven, what do you think about the fall of Samsung? It seems to me a temporary headwind (chip cicle, bad news on competition) but the business and balance sheet should be strong. The Market cap is only around 10% higher than COVID lows, it might be an interesting bet
@alext1723
@alext1723 3 ай бұрын
I'll be interested at looking at Samsung too. My issue currently is their shareholder return program. It's only through dividend, no share buyback (which may not be something they do in South Korea). And the dividend yield is "only" 2.58% (even if it's on the higher end of their usual div yield). On the positive side, Samsung always do quality products (when they don't do exploding phones) and I don't see them lose their appeal soon.
@Middlenamerichard
@Middlenamerichard 3 ай бұрын
Would you do an updated risk/reward on Dollar General? 🙏
@voldemort1993
@voldemort1993 3 ай бұрын
Can you please cover Sirius XM stock? Warren Buffet is buying it a lot lately and wanted to know the value investing take.
@fabioguerra4291
@fabioguerra4291 3 ай бұрын
Buongiorno Sven, cosa ne pensi del recente drop su EDENRED. Incomincia ad essere interessante dal punto di vista risk/rewatd!?
@PrintOnDemandWorld
@PrintOnDemandWorld 3 ай бұрын
I would put more risk on this stock but the reward is there. No all in, but gradual increasing In my case
@FedericoG-p3w
@FedericoG-p3w 3 ай бұрын
Agrre on the reward, way more risk than described..sephora mentioned once when its the biggest competitor and gaining share in us, most part of future growth driven by international expansion which is new for the company (and it failed in the past trying to expand in canada)..but warren bought it, it must go up! 😅
@PrintOnDemandWorld
@PrintOnDemandWorld 3 ай бұрын
@@FedericoG-p3w Agree. Sephora is killing everyone in this market, backed by LVMH extraordinary management. Idk which competitive advantage Ulta might have outside the US. I would rather consider purchasing LVMH at these levels.
@thedude121212
@thedude121212 2 ай бұрын
Hi Sven. Has your outlook on Ulta changed after the recent selloff? Is the investor sentiment still negative and not worth buying a falling knife or rather you'd accumulate at these prices?
@Value-Investing
@Value-Investing 2 ай бұрын
depends how it fits your portfolio, there are benefits but also upside!
@JerazEngineer-hz1ln
@JerazEngineer-hz1ln 3 ай бұрын
Hi Sven, thank you for this Ananlysis! Bayer ADR stock seems to be at a lower price historically. Would you be able to analyze it from a value investment perspective if its a low risk high reward opportunity? Thanks again!
@22raaf
@22raaf Ай бұрын
Called again. Almost bottom . Up 20% in a month. ❤
@steveboyd3455
@steveboyd3455 2 ай бұрын
Why did Buffet reduce the ULTA holding? What is he / Bershire seeing that is a concern?
@Value-Investing
@Value-Investing Ай бұрын
I wish I knew, maybe too much risk!
@tubeindahouse
@tubeindahouse 3 ай бұрын
Now that's a better haircut Sven. I see real value in your latest stylist.
@Michael_NV
@Michael_NV 3 ай бұрын
Nice thesis. What happened to DCF calculations?
@Value-Investing
@Value-Investing 3 ай бұрын
I need usually at least 30 pages to write up a starting report on a thesis! Dont forget this is youtube!
@MyOrangeString
@MyOrangeString 2 ай бұрын
It's interesting you consider Ulta a buy and Joseph Carlson doesn't. I love following you both.
@laurenstewartd
@laurenstewartd 3 ай бұрын
I Hit 110k today. Thank you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started last month 2024. Financial education is indeed required for more than 70% of the society in the country as very few are literate on the subject. thanks to Brooke Grace Miller for helping me achieve this
@AdolphusAupry
@AdolphusAupry 3 ай бұрын
I'm surprised that you just mentioned and recommended Brooke Miller, I met her at a conference in 2018 and we have been working together ever since.
@AdamKotlicki
@AdamKotlicki 3 ай бұрын
The very first time we tried, we invested $1000 and after a week, we received $5500. That really helped us a lot to pay up our bills.
@GrozaGroza-ko7fn
@GrozaGroza-ko7fn 3 ай бұрын
I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?
@GertonTootle
@GertonTootle 3 ай бұрын
I just withdrew my profits a week ago, To be honest it was an amazing feeling when the profits hits my wallet I wish I could reinvest but, too much bills
@AdolphusAupry
@AdolphusAupry 3 ай бұрын
Her good reputation already speaks for her $ 110k last month
@michaelfriend3990
@michaelfriend3990 3 ай бұрын
Sold Ulta for more CME and ASML. Ulta will do just fine. I'd pick it back up if it goes down to $320.
@MrNikkertti
@MrNikkertti 3 ай бұрын
I have this rule that if i don't personally know anything about the underlying business i will pass even if the numbers seems interesting. Like in this case women make up.
@jirojiro1029
@jirojiro1029 3 ай бұрын
Isn’t ULTA $320 just a while ago? Wasn’t that an even better buy?
@krakhour2
@krakhour2 3 ай бұрын
The problem is that middle class getting squeezed . The inflation is so high and people have less money for beauty products. How can they compound when the access to these products are so expensive when wages and taxes eating in to these bottom line...Questionable to hold if economy drops sharply. Buffet put small amount into it.
@mrgreen2461
@mrgreen2461 3 ай бұрын
Way ahead of you 😜
@sarahmark7682
@sarahmark7682 3 ай бұрын
Thank you Lord Jesus for the gift of life and blessings to me and my family $14,120.47 weekly profit Our lord Jesus have lifted up my Life!!!🙏❤️❤️
@ZerriJoseph
@ZerriJoseph 3 ай бұрын
I'm 37 and have been looking for ways to be successful, please how??
@sarahmark7682
@sarahmark7682 3 ай бұрын
Sure, the investment-advisor that guides me is..
@sarahmark7682
@sarahmark7682 3 ай бұрын
Elizabeth stark
@parkereric6397
@parkereric6397 3 ай бұрын
Same, I met Elizabeth stark last year for the first time at a conference in Wilshire, after then my Life has changed for good.God bless Elizabeth stark
@nancyflores1787
@nancyflores1787 3 ай бұрын
Her services is the best, I got a brand new Lambo last week and paid off my mortgage loan thanks to her wonderful services!
@franco2739
@franco2739 2 ай бұрын
November 15, Buffet sold all his position. Old man is taking advantage of the Buffet Effect.
@Value-Investing
@Value-Investing 2 ай бұрын
thanks for sharing!
@theresamorgavi9196
@theresamorgavi9196 2 ай бұрын
Warren Buffet just recently sold 96% of ULTA that he just recently bought.
@Cleisthenes607
@Cleisthenes607 2 ай бұрын
Berkshire hathaway just sold 98% of their holding in this.
@Value-Investing
@Value-Investing 2 ай бұрын
Thanks for sharing
@bigmuff4839
@bigmuff4839 2 ай бұрын
Sven already said in the video that Warren always tests if he likes it. Guess we have the answer now. 😉
@Cleisthenes607
@Cleisthenes607 2 ай бұрын
@@bigmuff4839 Warren in all likelihood had nothing to do with it as the position was too small for him to be involved in a meaningful way.
@whiskey_tango_foxtrot__
@whiskey_tango_foxtrot__ 3 ай бұрын
Thoughts on similar L'Oréal getting recently hammered on slowing China revenues?
@Hyper1555
@Hyper1555 3 ай бұрын
LVMH is the better company of the 2. I bought LVMH instead of the other. Also, Ulta is the better beauty buy (no debt, no China exposure). Also bought Ulta
@riccardosanna3907
@riccardosanna3907 3 ай бұрын
Grazie Sven, can you analise Xiaomi?
@leonardom6031
@leonardom6031 2 ай бұрын
Hahaha Warren Buffett just released almost 100% of this share like I thought already. This was not his stock investment. BTW you really think ultra can growth that way??
@tamanousJP
@tamanousJP 3 ай бұрын
Lithium stocks. Albermarle.
@andypicken7848
@andypicken7848 3 ай бұрын
That pesky Amazon wants to steal every bodies lunch lol
@vigilantbystander2800
@vigilantbystander2800 3 ай бұрын
Eh man talk about GPC
@KN0852
@KN0852 3 ай бұрын
How do most of you guys still make profit, even with the downturn of the economy and ever increasing life standards
@Markus-d9z
@Markus-d9z 3 ай бұрын
Well, I picked the challenge to put my finances in order. Then I invested in cryptocurrency, stocks, through the assistance of my discretionary fund manager
@Markus-d9z
@Markus-d9z 3 ай бұрын
Gregor Masini Andrade
@-vv3rv
@-vv3rv 3 ай бұрын
This is correct, Gregor strategy has normalized winning trades for me also, and it's a huge milestone for me looking back to how it all started..
@ChristianThomsen20
@ChristianThomsen20 3 ай бұрын
Yes, I agree with you. Her platform is wonderful, and her strategies are exceptional
@evelyndiaz8434
@evelyndiaz8434 3 ай бұрын
It doesn't matter if you are a current hodler or a newbie. You can capitalize on the fluctuation of Bitcoin by trading with good strategy/signals
@matejhorak4285
@matejhorak4285 3 ай бұрын
Inspirativní rozhovor. Zkusím něco přenést i do svého tradingu
@Ibrahim.3434
@Ibrahim.3434 3 ай бұрын
👏👏👏
@riazmohammedj
@riazmohammedj 3 ай бұрын
Elf is better buy
@NoMercy.62
@NoMercy.62 3 ай бұрын
damn, now that sven is interested it wil go down for sure :( i almost bought it
@MrUnlimitedTorque
@MrUnlimitedTorque 2 ай бұрын
Berkshire just got rid of ULTA. Not a good sign...
@Value-Investing
@Value-Investing 2 ай бұрын
Buffett does that often!
@Nathan-om8es
@Nathan-om8es 3 ай бұрын
Lately I got interested in crypto but has no idea how to go about it. Can anyone Help with a reliable tra-der
@trashydaydream
@trashydaydream 3 ай бұрын
I think what you need is a financial advisor assigned by a brokerage company that will trade for you and handle your capital professionally and give you weekly returns of investment without any extra fees attached
@trashydaydream
@trashydaydream 3 ай бұрын
Evelyn Turner is the advisor who guides me and her signal/strategy and optimal returns are really great 👍
@Craighugh-1
@Craighugh-1 3 ай бұрын
Yeah, Evelyn Turner was my hope during the 'bear summer' last year. I made so many mistakes but also learned so much from it, and of course from Evelyn Turner. She is my number one source when it comes to crypto and TA.
@AlfredoRenteria-gp5jc
@AlfredoRenteria-gp5jc 3 ай бұрын
I am not surprised to find nothing but positivity about Evelyn Turner's signalls because she has it all and you don't loose money following her trades.
@lexi7043
@lexi7043 3 ай бұрын
So you guys know her too?... he made me and I have our own house and car. She is good. Her success story is everywhere, her method surprised me honestly
@TheBooban
@TheBooban 3 ай бұрын
No dividend. Forget it.
@DylanTimothyDean
@DylanTimothyDean 3 ай бұрын
they do buybacks ;D much better, more tax effiecent my friend, if you wanta dividend hold the stock for over a year and sell a small percent each year
@alejandro1242
@alejandro1242 3 ай бұрын
Over 3% CAGR buybacks last 10 years + nice reinvestment rate. Way better than dividends in all aspects (if your goal is to make money)
@thezenguy9509
@thezenguy9509 3 ай бұрын
Rule number 1: Don't buy what Buffet bought if you're not Warren Buffet
@SGETjome
@SGETjome 3 ай бұрын
Why 😊
@PonderDuke
@PonderDuke 3 ай бұрын
Because he has to look for elephants only while we can also look for mosquitos. We are in a different position. We don't have have billions (at least I don't).
@AntonGeorgescu
@AntonGeorgescu 3 ай бұрын
@@PonderDukethat doesn’t mean you don’t buy what Buffet buys, it just means Buffet is restricted to buying elephants. His picks still have to grow
@hugomeza2910
@hugomeza2910 3 ай бұрын
That makes no sense.
@PonderDuke
@PonderDuke 3 ай бұрын
True but chances are you are able to put your money elsewhere for a better risk reward.
@billclinton-f8n
@billclinton-f8n 3 ай бұрын
As a passive investor, is it wise to buy market tracking index funds and ETFs from companies like Blackrock, Vanguard and State Street, even when they're at all time highs? i want to invest around 600k for retirement
@Ragtosina
@Ragtosina 3 ай бұрын
Index Funds & ETFs: 40-50%, Emerging Markets (e.g., VWO): 10-15%, Dividend Stocks: 10-20%, Growth Stocks/Small-Caps: 10-20%, REITs: 5-10% Remember to always work with a knowledgeable person in the financial market when starting out to avoid getting burnt.
@Too-old-Forthischet
@Too-old-Forthischet 3 ай бұрын
Accurate asset allocation is crucial, I used hedging strategies to allocate part of my portfOlio to defensive assets for market downturns. Expert guidance is vital for achieving this. This approach has helped me stay finan-cially secure for over five years, yielding nearly $1 million in returns on invest-ments.
@Donnald.
@Donnald. 3 ай бұрын
pls how can I reach this expert, I need someone to help me manage my portfolio
@Too-old-Forthischet
@Too-old-Forthischet 3 ай бұрын
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Melissa Elise Robinson for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
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