Uncertain Currents - Predicting Tipping Points in our Ocean and Climate | Fairbrother Lecture 2024

[@SixSigmaPi]

Excellent lecture, well done and good luck with your PhD

[@thunderstorm6630]

very good lecture, very easy to understand, thank you for your work.

[@volkerengels5298]

5:10 ....to just not mention coral reefs - tipping at 1.5K 21:50 I don't feel that is clear here: IPCC said **the weakening strongly impact...** -> the collapse is an add on top ....so - we have to expect raising 'strong impact' during this century ...from now on or so. 23:25 Showing this graph while having a 'good one' about weather in GB... Just try to imagine the **resulting extreme weather** if sounds harsh - I liked the video. At least someone more is talking about this....

[@thethinkingman-]

most scientists agree there was no climate change before computers so it makes you wonder if computers affect the temperature and if YES then where do we go from here!

[@volkerengels5298]

@@thethinkingman- -most scientists agree there was no climate change before computers- humor is a strength

[@thethinkingman-]

@@volkerengels5298 ???? as they say back to the black board for you!

[@masterdecats6418]

Great Video!

[@Deathmittens1]

We are going to exceed rpc8.5, we are going to zip right past our worst case scenario and enter into 100,000+ years of hot house conditions

[@frinoffrobis]

yes, probably

[@earthsystem]

💧💧 Sad for the beautiful critters that make up our planets biosphere.

[@DrSmooth2000]

Beats the alternative of glacial advance

[@DrSmooth2000]

​@@earthsystemfewer creatures in a Glaciation 😢

[@rajdevarapalli4346]

Explained the modeling process too.

[@FranzDörig]

the system- Theorie tell us the our earth specifically all our seas are since million’s of year extremely stable ( feedback positive negative and of course high gains ) tells us the our system is very stable.

[@trstquint7114]

Finally, Mars will have a big sister.

[@MourningCoffeeMusic]

Imagine carrying about other people, whole ecosystems and future generations. A novel concept in 2024, and a vague memory in 2025.

[@rajdevarapalli4346]

Explained well with better animations and drawings.

[@1237barca]

The oceans barely matter in the short to medium term. The ocean has so much momentum that it is difficult to change. The atmosphere however, has relatively little inertia. When the arctic ice melts, the northern hemisphere’s polar cell reverses in November. Bye bye northern hemisphere’s weather patterns.

[@thunderstorm6630]

stupid! die oceans take up 94% of your extra heating due to increase in greenhouse gases, when the oceans will eventually stop taking our wasteheat, then you will know how much they saved our lives so far....

[@DrSmooth2000]

Blue ocean summer causes this or total ice free like Greenland too?

[@1237barca]

@@DrSmooth2000 Greenland will last a long long time. The arctic ice will probably go very soon. Then you need to live between temuco and puerto montt

[@DrSmooth2000]

@@1237barca which state triggers this ^ sequence?

[@1237barca]

@@DrSmooth2000 the Arctic Ocean being mostly ice free in September.

[@h2m1ify]

👍

[@StanleyMilgram-j5e]

Let me put it another way, this is like the data coming from a Formula 1 car that saying the motor is about to blow if you keep driving at maximum speed. Pit to driver "slow down or you wont finish the race". Slowing down does not mean in 20 laps time, it is now today but thats not what is happening. I'm not a scientist or a maths genius, I monitor the noise from scientist and observe how far out the modelling is on climate and in which direction. Does anyone disagree that the climate models tend to be too conservative? Pit to driver ''the engine is probably in a worst state than we think, you need to come in to conserve the car". The real tipping point is what we as individual do now today. Options. 1) Carry on as we are, blown engine likely out come. 2) Hope we enter a cycle of the Eath that is a cooling phase, pit stop to fix engine possible. 3) Change driver, force required as he and it is usually a he is not listening. 4) Crew down tools until the driver listens. Really for me there is only one option that has any chance of success that's option 4) Collectively stop paying taxes, bring governments to their senses. Enjoyed the video👍

[@brianwheeldon4643]

This sort of presentation of a Phd thesis (maybe good) is good for an advanced academic climate science degree, but is not so good for motivating people to change the climate crisis the world is in. If one of the aims is to encourage change, invite the public to take action to ensure the government of the day takes action to meet or necessarily speed changes towards full mitigation of carbon burning (statistically speaking) then it falls far short. The sorts of outcomes and consequences in the latter case must include the consequences for life on the planet, including human life. The term 'uncertainty' should also be taken to mean uncertainty about the continuation of society around the globe post 2060, and what the reality on the ground for those experiencing such catastrophic change actually is. Thank you

[@thatone2586]

People will continue as they do until they have no choice. Faster than expected model predictions have already proven this.

[@earthsystem]

Human set up a complex system of business that is now self perpetuating, and we’re unable to stop this killer process we’re living in. How far back would we have to go to unravel the economic and legal processes committing biocide.

[@chris4973]

Feel free to spread… I’m an Idiot (A parody based on Monty Python’s I’m a Lumberjack) Lead: I’m an idiot and that’s ok. I believe the lies media vomit out each day. Chorus: He’s an idiot and that’s ok He believes lies media vomit out each day. Lead: Let’s cut down trees. Let’s eat our lunch. Let’s go to the lavatory. Every day let’s go shopping and have buttered scones for tea. Chorus: We cut down trees. We eat our lunch. We go to the lavatory. Every day we’ll go shopping and have buttered scones with tea. We’re all idiots and that’s ok. We believe the lies media vomit out each day. Lead: I cut down trees, breathe wildfire smoke Bulldoze wild fields of flowers What bugs me most is watching Men dress up like me ma. Chorus: He cuts down trees, breathes wildfire smoke Bulldozes fields of flowers What bugs him most is watching Men dress up like his ma?… (As in the original, the Chorus fidgets and looks nervous, but resumes heartily on the refrain) We’re all idiots and that’s ok. We believe wha media vomiteaches up each day. Lead: I cut down trees, pollute the land, the oceans and the sky. I’m living large for right now. The rest of life can die. Chorus: He cuts down trees, pollutes the land, the ocean and the sky. He’s living large for right now. The rest of life can die…? (As in the original skit during this last bit the Chorus begins to breaks down, using questioning, agitated, raised voices but in this version turns and accosts the lead singer)

[@OldScientist]

When it comes to tipping points this is what the IPCC (Special Report on implications of 1.5C or more warming, Chapter 3) says:“there is little evidence for a tipping point in the transition from perennial to seasonal ice cover. No evidence has been found for irreversibility or tipping points, suggesting that year-round sea ice will return given a suitable climate”. The IPCC also do not believe the melting of the arctic permafrost will cause a tipping point in the release of warming methane gas “the carbon released to the atmosphere from thawing permafrost is projected to be restricted to 0.09-0.19 Gt C yr-1 at 2°C of global warming and to 0.08-0.16 Gt C yr-1 at 1.5°C, which does not indicate a tipping point”. The Earth's climate is a multi input thermodynamic system and will conform to Le Chatelier's Principle.

[@DrSmooth2000]

Is a condition if north slope of Greenland becomes ice free it won't reglaciate at a return to baseline 0 Subtle apocalypse

[@henriknielsen1662]

@OldScientist: but as you no doubt know, a good deal of recent research suggests a worse scenario than the IPCC

[@DrSmooth2000]

@@henriknielsen1662 whose?

[@OldScientist]

@henriknielsen1662 What I know is there is no climate crisis. There is no objective observational evidence that we are living in a global man-made climate crisis. None. Zero. Zilch.

[@DrSmooth2000]

Suppose mean the Hansen-verse

[@stephenbrown9998]

Crap

[@Jeremy_one]

If these smart people could just come up with some kind system to clean out the air

[@gnorman-ct2lt]

I'm still trying to figure out how we came out of the last ice age without all those greenhouse gases? And note to self if I ever find myself in a ice age I'll just burn a bunch of oil then it'll be Sunny days again.lol

[@-LightningRod-]

you sound like SATAN

[@gnorman-ct2lt]

Everyone keeps talking about climate change and greenhouse gases but no one seems to be paying attention to how the Earth's core and electro magnetic field work in sequence together

[@TheMighty_T]

Scientists have clear evidence on the impact of climate change, it is causing direct damage right now, and will get worse if we don't deal with it. That is why it is a hot topic compared to others.

[@ppetal1]

They are paying attention to Earth's core and magnetic fields. Pay attention.

[@gnorman-ct2lt]

@@ppetal1 trust me I am more than you'll ever know

[@ppetal1]

@@gnorman-ct2lt sure thing.

[@DrSmooth2000]

I'd like an overview on the issue

[@gnorman-ct2lt]

I'm still trying to figure out how we came out of the last ice age without all those greenhouse gases? And note to self if I ever find myself in a ice age I'll just burn a bunch of oil then it'll be Sunny days again.lol

[@noconsent]

It's called Milankovitch cycles, and our current cycle would have the earth enter another ice age, but instead the planet is warming faster than it ever has in its entire history. You aren't wrong, want to avoid an ice age, cause global climate change with green house gasses. Worked for us this cycle.

[@-LightningRod-]

you sound like SATAN

[@DrSmooth2000]

​@@noconsentpraise be 🌴