Understanding Poker Variance and Downswings | Poker 101 Course

[@boojay7076]

It’s because if the standard variation which means the lower the number the less flips you take and the less all in pre you take. So that’s why the best number is worse than the high standard deviation results. You are playing a less risk adverse game which nets you a lower risk vs reward strategy.

[@WhatsMyHand]

Thank you for helping me clarifying and putting variance into its proper perspective.

[@chieffanLJ27]

To clarify your coin flip analogy, the expected EV of the coin flip is .25, a quarter per flip. If you flip 4 times, twice heads, twice tails, you win 2$-1$=1$ won over 4 flips, average 0.25 per flip. EV formula is (%win x $w) - (%L x $L) So 50% to win OR lose is 0.50 (0.5 x 1$) - (0.5 x 0.50$) 0.5 - 0.25 = 0.25 per flip. Im sure you know this and were simplifying for the video, but i just wanted to point out for other viewers how exactly it works. Thanks so much for the video! Variance is def misunderstood, and catches a lot of shit when we lose, but isnt praised when we win on bad plays. Even something as simple as hitting a set twice in a row is positive variance.

[@webguy943]

Really good video. Ppl don’t understand poker is a long term game. Short term loss doesn’t mean anything.

[@bipolarpunt5721]

You put in lower deviation for the better skilled player and that shifts all lines up and squeezes the range of outcome, but doesnt increase the max. If you put the same deviation but better ROI, you will get a higher max outcome.

[@darshanshah7994]

In the last graph: winrate=11.5; Std Deviation: 60; Worst Case is positive: +1506… Indicating that you are not losing..

[@TakenGTs]

This video changed everything....

[@texasdrz9515]

Mike Postle conquered variance.