Unlocked with John Curtice: There will be another Brexit referendum before 2040

Join UKICE Director Professor Anand Menon for a special conversation with the “doyen of British elections”, Sir John Curtice.
Sir John needs little introduction to followers of British politics, as one of the UK’s best-known political scientists and the man who guides the nation through election nights for the BBC. Recently he calculated that on current polling, the Labour Party have a 99% chance of forming the next government.
With the election looming, join us for a very special audience with Sir John as we look ahead to the vote. He will reflect on historic election shocks such as 1992, through to the changes of government in 1997 and 2010. He will also offer an insight into what it is like to crunch the numbers on polling day while the nation awaits the exit poll.
This is a rare opportunity to hear from the man behind the numbers and promises to be a hotly anticipated event.

[@maartenaalsmeer]

The UK can have all the referenda it wants. And it can apply for EU membership. But it will be the 27 EU member states that decide if membership is granted. And it will only take one veto for the application to be denied.

[@DS-cf1zc]

The veto has been removed, so in theory it doesnt need all of them to agree. Its how they forced through their latest changes to immigration and the spread of migrants through the EU countries.

[@blue_jay31]

I don’t think there are in a hurry for that to happen! 😢 sorry

[@br5380]

Politics trumps everything.

[@rayofhope1114]

Don't need to join the EU as such - simply join the single market as a trade deal. Then after a few years we simply slide in to full membership. There won't be a veto anyway - they re desperate to get us back and all of the whining of the fools who voted for Brexit in the first place will be ignored - quite rightly. The younger generation will out score the old nationalists that have contributed to our ruin. We will be happily back in the EU by 2030 probably.

[@isd8894]

Literally *everyone* on the face of the planet knows this. Why do you insist on repeating it on every Brexit-related video ever? Are you stupid?

[@midlandgeordie]

Definitely,the young people are dead against Brexit!! A referendum now would mean us joining!!

[@Rai_Te]

"A referendum now would mean us joining!!" No, actually it wouldn't. At best, it would mean 'us wanting to join' ... the actual process to join is clear, already laid out, and time consuming ... and needs the unequivocal agreement of all existing memberstates. (no doubt you're best friends with all of them).

[@FunnyBunny-pd5xx]

@@Rai_Te AND For all new European Union Members - the euro is mandatory ! NEVER !

[@FunnyBunny-pd5xx]

@@Rai_Te Since the Russia-Ukraine Conflict began, The EU have passed 12 rounds of Sanctions. Result The Russian economy has grown by 3% The Eurozone has stagnated !

[@charliezz6746]

That would mean and include joining the scengen zone and adopting the euro two unacceptable demands.

[@Iazzaboyce]

Isn't that what you would say if you knew it was untrue, because saying the people of the UK don't want to be in the EU would be the end of your cause? OK! 'The people of the UK regret Brexit and the EU is not in the mood to take the UK back' ... We believe you LOL!

[@lenrman969]

The largest cohort voting for Brexit were the older generation. Many young people did not bother to vote in the referendum. Since 2016, about 8 million Britons have died. These were mostly old people. A similar number of young people have come onto the electoral roll over the same period. In the meantime, all the brexit campaigners and their Tufton St mates have been exposed for what they are. Those young people who did not vote in the 2016 referendum and saw their prospects severly damaged by brexit will certainly vote in the next one. In 5 days time, (April 30) the government will make its 6th attempt to impose import checks and tarriffs on foodstuffs coming from the EU. 46% of the UK's food comes from the EU. If it is implimented as specified, it will lead to more food price inflation and shorthages in fresh foods. In addition, if the UK continue to decline at the same rate as the last 4 years, there will be a referendum within 5 years. If it has not happened by the end of the next Labour's term in office, it will be am election plege in 2029. BTW, I am a pensioner.

[@philattlee1]

The 8 million old age Brits who you state have died since 2016 have been replaced by another 8+ million who have become the older generation now. You don't seem to understand this. The old are always with us and we all reach that age (if we are lucky). In short the demography of the electorate is very little changed since 2016 and in fact there are more in the oldest age group now.

[@beemergb]

Brexit ? Horror plus 1 ! I sit sometimes for 2 days plus at Dover with my truck trying to get the paperwork done and fill almost another truck full with paperwork ! England is an Island ! Get it !

[@lloydnaylor6113]

Wonder how we managed in the 1960s with pen and paper at the borders .

[@georgethompson453]

Does anyone think having another referendum wouldn’t cause a really serious split in the country? The last referendum was suggested on a whim, on the belief it wouldn’t actually occur and look at the animosity that followed.

[@davidevans6051]

Would the EU have/want us back!

[@roberthuntley1090]

Why wait that long - a "confirmatory referendum" on the 10'th anniversary of the 2016 one would be my recommendation.

[@neilrobson3064]

The young will sweep away the Dunning Kruger stupidity of older generations……

[@paologat]

Give them enough time, and today’s young may well exceed the Dunning Kruger level of their grandparents. Never underestimate people’s ability to make poor decisions.

[@FunnyBunny-pd5xx]

​@@paologat It IS because of the older generations, sadly many have now passed away, @neilrobson3064 HAS THE FREEDOM ... to think in such disrespectful manner ! Do YOU know young man, young men your age DIED, made the ultimate sacrifice, paid the price of their respective lives so future generations may live in a FREE Society. SHOW RESPECT NEIL ROBSON.

[@thelammas8283]

Yup. Woke seems very clever.

[@Iazzaboyce]

Might have to bring in a law making it compulsory to vote, illegal to get older and to have one option referendums - but yep, could happen...

[@barryboom717]

​@@paologat That's a fair point, it would be silly to think that the youth of today are somehow enlightened and immune from stupidity. Brexit was predominantly backed by the boomer generation who fell foul of the explosion of unregulated information and manipulation from the internet. The internet will eventually be regulated, however, the pace of technological change outpaces our ability to negate any of its Ill effects on society. 40 years ago we could never have predicted the internet's impact on society, it's impossible to say the same for any current or emerging technology.

[@martincarter2324]

Totally agree, but the Referendum needs to be closer to 2030. For the future opportunities and wealth of our children, we need to consign Brexit to the dust bin of history as soon as possible.

[@venmis137]

I disagree. The Referendum needs to be held when we can be sure that it will return a result of over 60% in favour of joining. There needs to be a consensus, otherwise the EU will not accept us. Of course, there are many steps between now and EU membership (or federalisation if and when that happens). I would expect a Labour government to take many of those steps in the meantime.

[@wjf0ne]

@@venmis137 Federalization is pie in the sky to fool people into think there will be a USA style Europe. It will be one country and if you want to call it federal the federation will be between EU decided Regions and cities with no legislatures just assemblies to run them under EU rules, and remember your regions and cities will operate under subsidiarity which means no central government money to pull them out of a hole so you will enjoy multiple layers of taxation. EUtopia is not on the cards.

[@andrewdavies8954]

Rubbish.

[@phoenixreborn6065]

​@@venmis137And assuming we rejoin, there will be another referendum 10 years later to decide whether we should still be a member of it or not right?

[@noelfleming3567]

D eu will make sure it will be signed and sealed not like before d empire is long dead and its time d people of d uk opened their eyes

[@Cc-lp2xi]

I really hope it's soon!

[@user-pb6li5yn7v]

lETS FLIPPIN HOPE SO !!!

[@Azureecosse]

Assumptions being made here that the EU is going to survive the end of the decade.

[@antoniotorcoli5740]

In a decade the UK will be a member of the Arab Ligue.

[@robduncan599]

It's highly likely UK will end before the EU? We all know direction of travel is NI Secession from UK, it is only a matter of time and moving demographics, even unionists recognise that . NI Secession ends United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland ! I mean you couldn't call your country United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, without Northern Ireland? Could you that would just be silly ? Maybe it should be called Former UK little Brexit Empire?

[@maartenaalsmeer]

The demise of the EU has been 'predicted' (as in: wished for) for decades. Still countries are waiting in line to join. The EU isn"t perfect and will always be a work in progress. And that's fine. Because peace, stability and progress is what the EU stands for. A long-term project. This generation nor the next will see the end of the EU.

[@Azureecosse]

@@robduncan599 where is your evidence to support this vague opinion that the UK will end before the EU ? I am interested to know.

[@Azureecosse]

@@maartenaalsmeer You failed to list the major Countries who are lining up to leave the EU and will leave, the only countries that want to join are failing states and you know that but really cannot rationalise it because you have hatred of Brexit, your proclamation " This generation nor the next will see the end of the EU" is just wishful thinking.

[@manuelatreide]

This referendum would only allow the UK to apply for an EU membership. The decision would lie in the votes of EU member states and their citizens. As a French guy, I’m not currently inclined to vote for the UK to join again. Of course the British people are part of our family and when the conditions are met, they will be welcomed in the EU again. But for now, these conditions are not fulfilled: - the British people do not see themselves as Europeans. - the British people still believe they are superior to us. - the British people still do not understand the true nature as the European project nor they are willing to support and be part of it. - the UK is not ready to accept the European currency, pay its fair share of the EU budget - the British membership to the CPTPP is incompatible with an EU membership And most of all, trust is not present. The UK has a lot to do before even being considered as a valid candidate state. Don’t be fooled: a British membership to the EU is for now a very distant perspective.

[@chrisoneill3999]

There was French opposition to Britain joining the EEC (as it was then) all through the 1960s. British voters were so desperate to join by 1975 that they would have done _anything_ to be allowed in. With any luck France will insist on the break-up of the Union, and Westminster adopting French as its default language. Treat an Englishman like a spaniel, then he will respect you.

[@skin150263]

@manuelatreide I think you're being rather harsh, the UK wasn't ejected from the EU and only voted to leave by the narrowest of margins. Your first three points are your opinon and certainly not true of a large number of British people who do see themselves as Europeans and certainly don't feel superior to any other European nation. As to your fourth point, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Sweden are not part of the Eurozone, so it wasn't just the UK that had an opt out. I would have liked to see the UK join the Eurozone as it would have been more convenient for travel, mail order and so on. Contrary to what the brexiteers were always claiming, of course the EU is not some huge dictatorial entity seeking to rule every aspect of member nations, rather the EU and its predecessors have been a force for good in Europe. We've had peace in Europe for many decades now, workers' rights have improved, beaches are cleaner to name just a few. There is a European parliament and all member states have a veto. With the world's political situation being what it is, I should have thought that a united Europe was a good idea as there are those who are always seeking to drive a wedge between European countries. While it's certainly true that any country joining the CPTPP is incompatible with EU membership, there are those who think there are compelling reasons for the EU to join the CPTPP.

[@manuelatreide]

@@chrisoneill3999 as a French, I have a deep respect for the UK and a sincere admiration for the British people. I was born and raised in Normandy and I do remember the graves of British aviators in the cemetery of the small village where part of my family lived and where my grand parents are buried. I always pay my respects to these brave men who died so I can live free. No one here will ever make stupid or outrageous demands in the case of a new British candidacy. But we will insist on the UK and the British people being really committed to the European project. We also will reject any requests on « special treatments » such as a rebate, the non participation in the Shenghen accords and of course the adoption of the euro as the currency in the UK. To be blunt, I was sad when Brexit was voted and I really hope the UK will someday come back. Without the Brits, the EU is incomplete. But I won’t accept anything but a regular candidacy leading to a regular membership. We granted the UK special and unique privileges when this country was an EU member state. These privileges didn’t stop the British people to vote in favor of Brexit. No more.

[@manuelatreide]

@@skin150263 I never said the UK was ejected, I merely say that the decision to come back is not in the hands of the British people, it is in OUR hands. The UK may ask, we only have the power to say « you are allowed to come back, welcome » For the rest, it is not my opinion, it has been the policy the the British governments for the - at least - past 10 years. No one in the EU, not even in France has ever wondered whether the UK was a friend or a foe. No one here has ever labeled the teams negotiating the terms of the British exit as « war cabinet ». No EU governments members have aver used the words « dreadful » « awful » to talk about the UK. So please do not forget that the door is open but there will be conditions and we will insists upon their full compliance. Something the UK as a country has not been accustomed for the past years. Trust must be rebuilt. It wasn’t destroyed by us.

[@Purple_flower09]

​@@manuelatreide I'm a Scot and I agree with almost everything you have written. But please be aware that interest in joining the EU is not all that strong in the UK at the moment. Yes some people have realised leaving was a mistake. But that's in the context of all the points you made. Most of those wanting to join the EU do not fully understand what is involved in that. How many years it would take and the sacrifices required. The UK doesn't do 20 year projects. In fact other nations don't either. Perhaps we can revive the Auld Alliance instead.

[@davidbrinnen]

Even if the country voted to leave the EU again, I doubt the politicians would be any more enthusiastic about it than they were the last time. It seemed most of them were disappointed with the answer they got, and probably wished they had never asked in the first place.

[@robduncan599]

As a very pro EU voter, i think it's very unlikely UK will ever join the European Union? First UK will simply not exist? Northern Ireland is likely or very likely to say F this shite we are leaving? It might not be next year but it is coming. That simple act of NI Secession ends United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland . With Scotland despite also to get out of this shite , that leaves England &Wales with the Dissolution of UK. Who knows what then ?

[@lloydnaylor6113]

Have you looked over the border at the chaos in Scotland.

[@robduncan599]

@@lloydnaylor6113 If i look over the border i will be looking into England. So what is the 'chaos ' ? SNP might be having some difficulties? But if Conservative, Labour and Lib-Dem all club together they will still be short ? So what chaos ? Free prescription? Free bus travel for 60+ ? As opposed to the Brexit Empire clusterfuck?

[@stephenfarthing3819]

I'm going to be wary about this! I would be in favour of reapplication to the EU - But I would tend to suspect that a referendum to rejoin the EU would be unwise. We have a lot of distrust to overcome from our immediate European neighbours first! And that's going to have to come first! Any referenda will have to be in thirty years time. And getting that sorted out will have to wait until then. I'll be too old to help with that! I'm 60 now. And my main concern is reapplication. That's got to be first. The rest of it will have to be worked out in the years afterwards. I'm going to hold to my own considered estimates for that! Between 20 to 50 years! I will campaign for reapplication but no further! Simply put, we're NOT READY!

[@andrewgrillet5835]

So instead of the "will of the people" we get the "won't of the people"?

[@boblordylordyhowie]

So, it is ok to have another EU referendum even though it was clear (depending on how you count it) to have another referendum yet it isn't ok to have a Scottish independence referendum, isn't that double standards. To have a referendum on a union but not have a referendum on a union?

[@realhorrorshow8547]

It is a good thing to learn from mistakes, even if they're not your own. No poll I've seen shows support for independence, among the Scottish electorate, at more than a fraction over 50%. So, let's say there's an Indiref 2 and it comes out as 52:48 in favour, just like brexit. Scotland is committed to an unprecedented political course. About the only thing we can be sure of is that course will be long and painful. People feeling the most pain may change their minds. What will ScotNats say to them? "Oh no, we had a vote and our side scraped a win. So, we can never change course, no matter what."? Just like the brexitoids kept telling the rest of us. It's not a good look. My advice to ScotNats is; until you can be sure of a super-majority, leave it alone.

[@AndyPye]

Well, I agree with you that there should be a Scottish referendum too. The argument for not leaving last time ("stronger together") was voided by the Brexit result.

[@FunnyBunny-pd5xx]

2040 GOSH ! Several Politicians, of differing Nationalities, have stated "We are living in a pre-war era" Political Analysts and Commentators have said, it could be as little as five years THEN President Putin may decide to attack/invade A NATO Member State. Possibly Finland or Poland. THIS will Trigger Article 5. By 2040 The WORLD could have changed !

[@FunnyBunny-pd5xx]

For me, ONE thing IS certain I will not be around to vote for the THIRD time !

[@AndyPye]

@@FunnyBunny-pd5xx You and me both probably

[@darrenlane3168]

Opining about Brexit is very much the same as rearranging the deck chairs on the deck of the Titanic. 😂

[@lt9172]

Thinking 2040 is decades away but really that’s only 16 years.

[@mikeycroucher4299]

I wouldn't feel comfortable going back in if i am honest, safer to stay out , and with everything that is going on with the world , nah eu is not for me ,

[@1258-Eckhart]

It does seem inconceivable that Britain will not rejoin a by then much reformed, but reformed in the UK's absence, EU. All the major world issues need FIRST to be sorted out at a continental level and it's total nonsense that Britain should see itself as a partner in Pacific trade or Pacific "peacekeeping" (a Nato euphemism for warmongering) in the South China Sea. Common Sense will dictate ever closer cooperation between Britain and its immediate neighbours until one day, the step to full membership will be a matter of course. Prof. Curtice's referendum, if it takes place, will be a mere confirmation of facts. The only arguments against this are ideological, the natural enemy of common sense and the cause of all wars.

[@danielwebb8402]

The mist material "reform" since the UK left is going borrowing. A negative. Arrived at despite multiple countries explicitly, repeatedly saying no. So a negative on the idea of sovereignty/ veto. Happened just because France and Germany said so. What "reforms" do you see coming that would be positive from the UK voters point of view?

[@1258-Eckhart]

@@danielwebb8402 The eastern European countries will prevail and will reduce EU political influence within 10 years, and this will play into UK politicians' cards very positively. So UK-EU membership 20 years from now. But it can't stay that way, eastern Europeans and Britons will need to understand that Russia is a European country, to be wrested back from China. Before that happens, we are both dead.

[@DS-cf1zc]

@@danielwebb8402 Personally I dont see any - and if current members are in discord over changes, and proposed changes. They even removed the veto to get their own stuff done. Hardly invigorating, or democratic in my eyes. I am grateful we are not in at the moment.

[@Harry-tb8yo]

It might become common sense for the UK but that does not necessarily mean it will become common sense for the EU as well. There are other urgent topics for the EU now and in the foreseeable future, e.g. climate change, Ukraine war and the time thereafter, reforming the EU before admitting more member states etc. The UK is no priority for the EU at this moment. The EU needs its resources for other things.

[@1258-Eckhart]

@@Harry-tb8yo If the EU can make time to accompany the accession documents of a total basket case like Ukraine (which will no longer even exist in its current form), then it will make time to accompany the UK reaccession. And apart from that, Curtice was talking 2040, I meant more like 2030, but at any rate a timeframe where neither you nor I can make any prognostications.

[@tillposer]

1:53 "... would do something about the EU..."? What in the name of Cthulhu do you mean here? One of the most annoying things about the referendum was that nobody from the remain side said something like "while the EU is not perfect, it is a really good thing and a very good idea, so we should stay in and strengthen the idea while improving on it." They all said something on the order of "yes, it's all a shithole with greedy Eurocrats putting their trotters into the troughs, swillling Champagne all day and scarfing down the smoked salmon, but it's better being inside, pissing out, thann being outside, failin to piss in!" Unless there is a real committment from the UK and its population to the always clearly stated goals of the EU, they should stay out.

[@JohnnyinMN]

Englanders still can’t fathom the loss of their pound. Give it a few generations.

[@caloricphlogistonandthelum4008]

Sooner! Sooner! Sooner!!!!!

[@curiousuranus810]

Couldn't agree more!

[@br5380]

Labour just need to put it into their next Manifesto, not for the current General Election but the next one - and rather than say they want a referendum, just say they're going to apply for membership. Get elected and then apply for membership.

[@genghisthegreat2034]

The UK needs to study how Referendums are done in countries that use them frequently. You need an independent Referendum Commission. You need the Heads of the Bill that'll be introduced if it passes. And you need the fundamentals of the EU Accession Treaty.

[@katebradshaw9280]

I think we are looking at 2032-2036, e.g. 3 or 4 elections.

[@Aloddff]

All voters between 18-26 didn’t have a chance to vote in eu referendum but their lives are governed by the results more then all else

[@DS-cf1zc]

Have you actually studied the data science behind voting - in your younger years you are significantly more likely to vote Labour - ironically, as you age that flips towards the Tories - who end up with a larger majority in the older demographic. Broadly speaking the same doesnt quite translate with our two EU votes - in the first one - where we were perhaps not told the truth about our EEC vote - the young were less eager to join than the older demographic. Whereas in the 2016 that swung around - perhaps those younger voters in the 70's now realise the full folly of the original vote, being lied to, and have changed how they view what they voted on. Remember we voted to join the EEC, not the EU - the two things are different - but politicians took us into the EU without a vote.

[@ralphmacchiato3761]

Brexit already happened so no need for further referenda about that. Maybe get proportional representation first and see of you can live up to the Copenhagen criteria. They are not just requirements for joining the EU but they are advanced humane standards to strive for. We the EU members want people who see the benefit of self improvement by co-operation, not gold-diggers.

[@Purple_flower09]

Proportional Representation is definitely not a requirement for EU membership. It would be a good idea, but that's a separate point.

[@AndyPye]

@@Purple_flower09 But PR removes the risk of an extremist government being elected. Henve it makes us more attractive from the EU side.

[@Seoras111]

I have much respect John Curtis. Although he may well be right, for the sake of the UK it is essential that we return to EU membership much earlier than 2040.

[@khankrum1]

There is no empirical evidence to support the hypothesis of changing attitude!

[@DS-cf1zc]

There is very little evidence that it has done significant harm to our economy, in fact the opposite seems true, as we are free of some of the straight jacket. Dont get me wrong - its not perfect, but that is down to the inability of our politicians of either party to stand on their own two feet and think freely. Once that happens we might make some progress.

[@JohnnyinMN]

You guys keep on believing. Glad you’re happy with the results.

[@Alexander-uj5pb]

I do hope we will return to the EU.

[@malcky630]

If there is one left.

[@lloydnaylor6113]

Over my dead body I'm 65😂

[@Alexander-uj5pb]

@@lloydnaylor6113 well that's a bit over the top, but good luck with it.

[@Bartok_J]

I don't want a referendum - I want a free vote in Parliament, and our paid representatives to do their jobs and accept responsibility for the consequences of that vote. Imagine that a free vote had given the same result as the 2016 referendum: a 52:48 split in favour of leaving the EU. Those MPs who had voted to leave would be put on the spot and made to account for their abject failing to deliver the benefits they promised to the electorate. They would be unable to pass the buck by claiming that they had delivered what "The Country" had voted for. Referendums are fine for issues that people without specialist knowledge can understand (the New Zealand flag, for instance) and can be easily corrected if it becomes clear that a mistake was made. But for subjects like EU membership, we need our elected representatives to make these decisions, and take the consequences if they get things wrong.

[@barriepeck643]

God help us if we go back in E U

[@denisburgess2966]

It's already changed for the worst.

[@tatata1543]

But Keir said no. Was he lying?

[@tableface77]

He did. But would that be lying? He just said "not in the next government" and that's a five year term which will only take us to 2029 (assuming Labour form the next Government, which is very likely)... and he carefully avoids any questions about the more long term future. They say only a week is a long time in politics. All bets are off for where we might be in 2040 😁

[@tatata1543]

@@tableface77 It’s just that he lies and uturns a lot and he’s not even in power yet, it’s hard to take anything he says at face value.

[@chrisoneill3999]

As John Curtice points out: Starmer's best strategy is to hold the next referendum as a promise at the end of this term (2028 ish), thus guaranteeing a Labour landslide in 2029.

[@tatata1543]

@@chrisoneill3999 Yea, that’ll definitely happen. Starmer will be still be obsessed with appeasing the red wall headbangers, he doesn’t have the courage to do what you are suggesting. Also, he will be deeply unpopular by that time (he’s not that popular now, which doesn’t bode well). He will change little, he will listen to the focus groups, tinker around the edges and we will have a Tory government (or something similar) before you know it. The fundamental problem is that England is drawn to vote for right wing parties, Labour will have a go because the Tories are such a disaster but people have short memories and they will desert Labour as easily as they moved towards them. In the meantime Starmer has alienated many of the people who voted for him as leader, they are not going to rush to his aid when things get tough.

[@chrisoneill3999]

@@tatata1543 That's a heap of words.

[@scottleonard2300]

Estonia or Latvia? I guess I understand your frustration with the EU and the failure to effectively respond to Putin. What an opportunity the west missed in 1989.

[@sambaliwingo]

Yeah, the EU should have done like the English and put a RUssian spy in its parliament.

[@Steve-yx1xj]

During a second labour term

[@simon19162]

Sadly, it doesn't matter. The whole Brexit process is irreversible. They don't want us back. In particular, there are too many individual constituencies in Europe who have benefited from our departure. The classic is Luxembourg. They will do their best to prevent us from re-joining. This is pretty easy as you just take away all the privileges the UK enjoyed before and insist on joining the euro.

[@lloydnaylor6113]

If we join will 40 years down the line in the 2080s will there be another brexit referendum and we'll leave again 😂

[@Sjb-on5xt]

Wishful thinking. For starters, the EU wouldn't take the UK back in. Secondly, surrender sovereign control of everything to eu bureaucrats?

[@khar12d8]

John is great at analysing public opinion but I don't think he's great at figuring out how future politicians will behave. There won't be a referendum before 2040 because either the Tories will be back in power by then or you will have a Labour govt that, while many of its supporters want to rejoin, will be made up of people that remember the horror of 2016 and the aftermath and so they will avoid holding another referendum. Referendums are crazy things. Labour may make deals with Europe but I don't think they will hold another referendum.

[@danielwebb8402]

One in the 40s is completely consistent with both sides messaging in 2016 campaign. And 2014. And precedent of 70s one. Ideally anyone wanting one in the 40s will have shut up from June 2016 till late 30s.

[@paulcrovella6239]

Anand Menon always comes across as very Brexity.

[@SonOfViking]

The extent of constitutional reform within the UK that would have to precede any application to join the EU, whether endorsed by yet another public opinion poll masquerading as a "referendum" or not, is presently beyond most British people's ability to comprehend, let alone undertake. Curtice may be accurate in his prediction for when both the public and the political class may be aligned in their view to the extent that they embark on a "referendum", but he is restricted (like many Britons) to thinking strictly within the parameters of British self-obsessive exceptionalism that leaves no possibility to even hear that this has been stated time and time again by the EU itself, both through official and unofficial Commission communications and through EU Parliamentary resolutions (mostly related to EU constitutional integrity matters raised by the recent performance of Hungary and Poland as members). Or if these were heard they were simply ignored. Check the Copenhagen Criteria with an honesty and actual understanding that they apply to you too which has hitherto been lacking. Address the non-compliances you discover. Then have an actual referendum (a plebiscite in which the people within a democracy amend or define a fundamental constitutional principle by which they consent to be governed). Then apply. How many years would that take?

[@RealMash]

If they would understand that they have to reduce their debt to GDP ratio to 55% from well above 100% in a shrinking economy, they might be humbled. and get a realistic timescale. Alas, they will expect some waiver because "we are British". Until they get that exceptional nonsense out of their brains, there is no use discussing things from the EU side. At least they might bring proposals or paper to write things down the next time. But...who am I kidding here?

[@maartenaalsmeer]

How many years? 30-40 imo. If ever.

[@DS-cf1zc]

@@RealMash And to give up the pound, open our borders up and do as we are told by the EU - there is many many hurdles to resolve, alongside the economy and GDP. Given we have a potential government already talking of nationalising the railways - which will either require more borrowing, or more taxation, and a water companies probably about to fall into the same thing - we wont be able to meet the GDP requirements in my life time. I am sure we still havent paid off WW2, Labour years borrowing 1997 - 2007, Fiscal crash of 2008, and now a pandemic, and the war in Ukraine. Thats like to take in excess of 100 years to fix from where I am sitting, unless you go for the 100% tax regime of many years ago - I think on a labour watch.

[@Purple_flower09]

​@@maartenaalsmeer well if the people of the UK really really wanted to join the EU and kept that feeling up over time then the sort of changes that are needed could be done in much less than your timescale. But in reality, the number who really really want it is quite small. We're all speculating, including Curtice. But these days I don't see it ever happening because the UK will go off on some tangent or other.

[@SonOfViking]

@@Purple_flower09 You underestimate the extent of the "changes that are needed". Economic reform is one thing. However constitutional reform on the scale required to become an actual democracy compliant with the required definition would require an awful lot of people presently benefiting from your existing set-up in terms of holding all the power and wealth to allow it to happen first. Or are you anticipating revolution? Not sure what you mean by "tangent". In terms of constitutional democracy the UK is already so tangential it hardly even touches the circle.

[@MrBecksy2]

It's an open goal to giving the economy a boost.

[@joegroup1]

If Labour wins the GE to do a volte face on brexit they would lose quite a lot of traditional Labour voters of the working class areas. The Labour party needs to dispel the propaganda of the right wing tabloids against the EU . Of course if and when the UK re-joins the EU, this country won't have any EU rebates or opt-outs and we'd probably have to change our currency to the Euro.

[@AndyPye]

The core of Labour voters is pro-EU, pro-Remain. That hasn't changed. Some pro-EU voters have abandoned the labour party because of its pro-Brexit stance. They would gain more than they lose by becoming anti=Brexit.

[@joegroup1]

@@AndyPye One of the reasons the Tories won the last GE was by taking some of the red wall seats, with their anti-EU brexit campaign. There is still distrust towards the EU in the red wall seats.

[@stevewoolaway4453]

Stuff that. Let’s have one now before the damage of Brexit gets any worse.

[@anthonygrayson7753]

Can't come soon enough!

[@thelammas8283]

Think Europe would take you back?

[@AndyPye]

Yes

[@thelammas8283]

@@AndyPye I hope so, but the conditions might sting a bit. 🤞

[@johndevoy5792]

by 2040, the uk will most likely not be the uk as today. The 6 counties of the 9 of Ulster, by then will be part of a unified Ireland. As for the Scots...who knows, but any Scot I've met here in Ireland, are openly envious of Irelands long 'independence' from the mindset of Brexit Tories

[@lloydnaylor6113]

Brexit Labour, don't forget we in the redwall reminded Labour if you ignore the will of the people.

[@chrisoneill3999]

It won't be enough to rejoin the EU. We have to punish the voters who took us out in the first place.

[@FunnyBunny-pd5xx]

Please describe the "punishment" YOU wish to impose.

[@neilanderson2374]

@@FunnyBunny-pd5xxmandatory voting

[@garyfryer5334]

I would HAPPILY meet you for my punishment!! But im talking to a Cowardly, Lefty, Keyboard Warrior , So i wont hold my breath for a meet!!

[@Enuff947]

1,800 Brexit voters pop their clogs every day.

[@margaretpainter3839]

Not while i am alive best vote I ever had

[@billpugh58]

You 95😂

[@alphabetaxenonzzzcat]

Whilst I agree with you(and I voted to leave as well), unfortunately - the media have done a good job of blaming a lot of the current problems on Brexit(not that I actually think we ever truly got it), and I do see a lot of people now willing to re-join for something like they think it will fix the problem of mass immigration.

[@mup_pet]

I'm sure there are some chickens who have shares in KFC as well.

[@jannuary831]

@@alphabetaxenonzzzcat like Brexit was supposed to fix the problem of immigration?

[@robinj6137]

​@alphabetaxenonzzzcat Aside from the problems that Brexit has directly caused (and it isn't even fully 'done' yet), Brexit exacerbates other problems and/or makes solutions to problems harder

[@mrsmvcheek]

Perhaps by then the awful EU will be more about trade partnership and less about political dictatorship.

[@andrewdavies8954]

It won't exist at all by then

[@RealMash]

@@andrewdavies8954 Any minute now it will break down? Right? The likes of you have been saying it for forty years min. And the effort to destroy the EU before it have failed, the efforts to get countries to get under your control and leave the EU have failed during and post Brexit. And you have learned nothing from it? Impressive.

[@robinj6137]

​@andrewdavies8954 When's the EU gonna collapse, Andrew? Been hearing that for years!😂😂 You will die before the EU ends. But you will see the break up of the UK

[@jonathandumbell9384]

One of the great Brexit lies was that the EU interfered in UK internal politics. It didn't. 98% of ALL EU law relates to the running of the Single Market. The EU never told the UK to ditch its undemocratic voting system, abolish the Lords or to change UK criminal law. 99% of UK people are almost completely ignorant of how the EU works and what it does, and does not. The EU offered the UK funding to teach this in schools but the UK said no, the UK govt being almost as thick as thd average Brit.

[@noelfleming3567]

Just shows d mentality of d brits someone else has to change not them it's always if d eu do this or that that's suits them britianna doesn't rule fuck all anymore 😂😂😂

[@malcky630]

That old guy is so shure Labour will win the election, watch this space. hahaha.

[@DS-cf1zc]

They will - its the two side coin time to flip - we seem to have only two parties people will vote for, and finding voting diversification is a challenge beyond us all.

[@michaelmouse4024]

The brexit Paradox is that any govt capable of delivering brexit wouldn't. The brexit reality is that voters shrewd enough to decode brexit would reject it. Result - an inept/venal govt conned a majority of gullible/deluded electors

[@paullarne]

The net learning of 47 years of EEC/EU membership is that we were required to contribute much more than we ever got out of it. The World is a far bigger place than the EU.

[@sambaliwingo]

You're a really dumb person aren't you? Narrow-minded Little Angerlander with a shopkeeper mentality. Your shitty Brexit is costing you far more than you paid into the EU, but you lack the intelligence to see it. Sad little "man".

[@br5380]

I've worked all over the World for UK companies, while we were in the EU - and now all that has happened is that we've lost the 'protection' of being a member of the World's largest trading zone. Show me any Trade Deal we've got since leaving that is better than we had while in the EU, in pounds/shillings/pence.

[@cordellpunter5035]

The net learning is that we got a lot more out of it than we put in. That’s why 27 countries have stayed

[@Vaultboy-ke2jj]

The UK, France, Germany and many other countries paid more than they “got back” directly but the indirect benefits of the free trade enormously offset that. It’s like complaining that you have to pay a charge to set up a stall in a market.

[@ab-ym3bf]

@@sambaliwingo he is publicly admitting to have learned nothing in 47 years. And by a look at his posts, never will.