'Unpleasant Time' Ahead For Stock Market - What Markets Are Signaling | Tom McClellan

Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report, and a prominent figure in the field of stock market analysis and technical analysis, joins Julia La Roche on episode 156.
In this episode, Tom shares his views on the economy and markets in a presentation of charts, from the message crude oil prices are sending stocks to the Presidential Cycle Pattern and of course the famed McClellan Oscillator.
Tom explains why a recession is still coming. He also explains why the second half of 2024 could be an unpleasant time for stocks, but we haven't seen the inflection point yet.
Tom is the son of Sherman and Marian McClellan, who are recognized for creating the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index in 1969.
Tom McClellan has done extensive analytical spreadsheet development for the stock and commodities markets, including the synthesizing of the four-year Presidential Cycle Pattern.
He is a graduate of the U.S. Military Academy at West Point and served as an Army helicopter pilot for 11 years.
Links:
www.mcoscillator.com/
/ mcclellanosc
0:00 Intro and welcome Tom McClellan
0:55 Macro view
1:41 Only 2 fundamentals matter for stocks
2:45 Recession is coming
4:25 Inverted yield curve and corporate profits
5:54 Crude oil prices message to stocks
8:00 Stock market and expectation of a top in June
10:57 McClellan Oscillator
13:20 Presidential Cycle Patterns
15:20 Taxes could be a problem
20:56 Fed Funds Target Rate - staying too tight for too long
25:30 Recession call
27:27 McClellan Oscillator - neither bulls nor bears are in charge
29:50 Markets driven by high-flying tech names, people feeling twitchy
35:05 Gold
37:00 Bitcoin
38:20 The McClellan Oscillator origin story
44:00 Parting thoughts
#stockmarket #investing #technicalanalysis

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Hey everyone! I hope you enjoy the latest episode of our channel featuring Tom McClellan. Tom was generous enough to guide us through a variety of his charts, which was truly amazing. I apologize for the technical glitches with the camera in the latter half of the interview. Don't forget to subscribe to our channel to show your support. Please share your thoughts in the comments section below. Thank you. 💙Julia

[@lsu205]

Mclennan and Laffer in the same month. Your podcasts are simply the best!!!

[@Curbalnk]

What I don’t understand is, on one hand we are told the stock market will crash and yet on the other we are told ways of investing in the stock market. Oxymoron or paradox? I'm considering investing over $300k, but I'm uncertain about risk mitigation strategies.

[@velayuthman]

Invest in real estate, ETFs and high-yield savings account.

[@greekbarrios]

Just buy Gold and protect your assets, the stock market is a rollercoaster.

[@blaquopaque]

The market is not necessarily a rollercoaster if you know your way around the market, there are various opportunities in the present market to accrue good profit, If you are not too savvy with the market, just buy and hold on strong companies with good earnings, or consult with advisors on ETFs and actively managed funds.

[@blaquopaque]

*Jennifer Leigh Hickman* is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find her webpage and necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

[@Shultz4334]

I fired mine 12 yrs ago. now I am beginning to see the benefits, how do I get one? Considering your point I won’t want to get into a bubble. Can you recommend any?

[@objectivethinker3225]

Regardless of if you agree with Tom's thesis or not, he did an excellent job presenting and explaining his position!

[@ryantinney]

Wonderful discussion. Tom's dad, Sherman is a true master of the market and technical wizard.

[@jimformermilkman]

Another great guest. You are great at getting unique guests

[@agwyrm8884]

Thank you for getting Tom on. He is a fountainhead of information!

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

I'm so happy to hear! I'll bring him back again 😊

[@ORiely]

Great interview Julia, thank you. I do follow the McClellan report and it always nice to have a fresh update with Tom going over his report.

[@alanmrsic893]

Great stuff, thanks again!

[@mark-204]

Tom was an excellent guest I learned a lot.

[@mjbucar]

An excellent guest speaker - thank you.

[@JK-zw8ec]

Very interesting. I was aware of the McClellan oscillator but this interview was very usefull.

[@coolrecursion]

Tom is incredibly articulate and intelligent. True quant.

[@Yetified_Mayhem]

Interesting info. Thx Julia!

[@dustinhartlyn]

Ready great interview. Thank you

[@michaelstock9351]

Solid presentation from Tom

[@andrewstewart7425]

Love the guest! Nice work

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Yay! Thank you. 💙

[@lc1717]

Great market perspective... Thank You...

[@hart-coded]

Grt interview and loved the charts

[@jonEmontana]

Good stuff Julia and Tom

[@nunoalexandre6408]

Love it!!!!!!!!

[@wespotter6985]

great job julia, Keep up the good work.We are big fans

[@bingwu8146]

Very interesting and unique market analysis!

[@justinwiedeman5017]

Very educational. Thank you. I'm not Neutral. Holding at least 3 years cash. The one and only question for the Developed World on Debt? Are we going MMT? Free Lunch? $1T in interest payments only coming. Totally nuts. In my view. There is no free Lunch!

[@asafprivman]

7:50 The chart matching of crude oil is really hard to believe, especially with the exception of the magnitude, the 2018 decline in almost unnoticeable

[@ashanesubasinha8313]

Thanks Julia

[@DavidFinlay-cg3mp]

Excellent thk u

[@issenvan1050]

How should BTC, gold miners, & silver behave during the upcoming recession? Will DXY go down as Jeff Gundlach suggests?

[@charlespatton4470]

Fantastic and educated guess. Wow.

[@PatrickHoyt-ju4kl]

Great Information

[@financialm3771]

Interesting for sure

[@yr6178]

Thank you Julia

[@issenvan1050]

If the oil prices (& stocks in general) go down, will those benefit gold miners?

[@thebarryman]

Yes, oil is a huge cost for miners.

[@issenvan1050]

Thought only/mostly central banks have purchased gold so far? Thus, there shall be a lot more upside potential for gold as investors start to participate in this rally, right?

[@thehungergames8918]

🌹

[@MonteRosa849]

The savy investor knows that market timing doesn’t work, period! Even Mc Clellan can’t do it consistently.

[@SweetNeoCon407]

What's the deal with the graph at the 8:15 mark? He's showing peaks and valleys from 2016 and 2018 that are showing close to and over 2025.

[@issenvan1050]

Military helicopter pilot like Kiyosaki. 👏🏻

[@johnoliver4199]

I am worried that he has not factored in the connection between bonds ( corp) and short term gov like T bills.

[@vincentmurphy9252]

Nice

[@davidcpugh8743]

Yield curve depends heavily on the Treasury need to raise cash to pay the bills. By raising cash from low duration notes cheaply, they skew the yield curve to fragility.

[@issenvan1050]

He sounds like a monetarist from get-go. 👏🏻

[@issenvan1050]

He sounds like a mixture of Hanke & Gundlach. 😎

[@wernermesserer4464]

"If you have a 100 year time horizon" ... 😉😉 I love statistics.

[@davidcpugh8743]

Hoorah for buy right, and hold.

[@mikesmevog7146]

So now that BTC is heavily correcting as we're coming up on a week after gold starting a nice move up it's nice to know Bitcoin is about to rip back up according to you.

[@jhull5870]

We are well beyond the 15 month. The 2 to 10 year yield curve first inverted in 7/2022. That is now at 20 months. Markets at all time highs and just keep treading higher. Seems like little talk about a recession unlike 2023 and the boat is getting crowded to one side. Contrarian indicator??? And corporations have been milking the inflation narrative, hurting the average working American.

[@dave8212]

👍🏻💛

[@deseosuho]

The "too high for too long" problem Tom talks about @21:50 is unavoidable, I think. The process that brings consumption down and reduces inflation is extremely painful. It involves individuals going bankrupt, losing their homes and businesses. Because of that, the people and firms on the margins are always going to extend and pretend as long as possible. That makes the big macro data (retail sales, unemployment, corporate profits) look good for as long as possible... and it's only when people who are holding on by their fignernails start to fall en masse that the data reflects it. By then, the process is already in motion and it's too late to avert a recession.

[@ask_why000]

So, if the stock market is fine and the economy is fine and the fed interest rates have zero impact on inflation: Why would the Fed need to cut or hike or do anything?

[@VikasKesavan]

Respect Tom but his prediction based on oscillator was, the market would make a new low in October of 2023.. we know what happened then.

[@dazedhavoc]

Stocks are melting up.

[@Weetorp]

Its a shame that he mixes great work (yield curve, taxes) with nutcase data (oil, presidental cycle).

[@johnoliver4199]

I don’t think anyone has got this “ all figured out” I know I do not! Only thing I know for sure is that we are almost at maximum government distortion regardless of which economic FED regime you favor. I favor higher interest rates for longer because I think that more closely matches the market for money when you factor in “ true risk” of loaning out money across all the spectrum of various types of loans. Implications if I am right?

[@alicecooper9472]

2:50 WRONG - The 2 yr vs 10 yr Govt bond yield curve inverted 7/6/22. 15 months would mean recession Oct 2023 - didn’t happen.

[@tom-eliasknosp5267]

He is using 3months vs 10year

[@Roseberry247]

So if the Fed does not have much of an effect on inflation, so the printing of $8 trillion had no effect on the inflation rate over the past few years....really???

[@issenvan1050]

What if they start to materially re-fill the SPR after the elections? Would the oil prices go much higher in that scenario? Then what?..

[@frankdominiani8089]

Numerology

[@Rick-gy8fz]

Why is massive debt bullish? He does not say.

[@issenvan1050]

Is there going to be another fracking boom?

[@gussoldtimeradioshows4902]

Unpleasant times ahead as the market rises 25% by year end. Don't buy into the fear

[@johnoliver4199]

Interesting, I still think it is dangerous in this field to become too dogmatic and married to chart “ dynamics”.

[@vincentmurphy9252]

Nobody knows nothing ! Not after 2008 And Covid We’re driving 125 mph - no brakes- cliff

[@issenvan1050]

Is it a coincidence that BTC cycles overlap w/ the election cycles?

[@davidcpugh8743]

Gold smells like Chinese flight capital?

[@user0055]

Living Legend

[@wespotter6985]

You'll get to be a homeowner, when the recession hits, because Americans are over extended.

[@capt.sparrow34]

Crash comes when the yield curve reverts.

[@danlee6997]

This guy has been so wrong for so long,but it doesn’t faze him one bit.truly insane.

[@flicmcfly1536]

Is that a toilet plunger behind him???

[@acornsucks2111]

Gloom and doomer. At some point, the market always goes down.

[@easterntechartists]

Sir, you are unhappy you had free.money for 15 years Making money with no skill? Now you are paying for your lack of skill and everyone is who took stupid actions!

[@bloatedtonydanza7798]

This guys is delusional. He’s never right in his Twitter account and the way he responds is short of cordial. A man that’s always wrong and is unpleasant… he has to thank God his parents left him this “miraculous formula” to trade 😂

[@dailydoseofnews4828]

Great

[@dudewheresmyguitar21]

If you had a bull on with him theyd just say no the whole time and point to the chart going up

[@zobry2xxx]

Another clueless contra indicator ... BUY >> BUY >>> BUY!