UPDATED 2024 U.S. House Election Prediction - A CLOSE RACE TO THE MAJORITY!

[@tommyudo3195]

I see that map and think, "Look at all of that Red gerrymandering."

[@SomePerson-d3z]

Look at Illinois, Nevada, New Mexico, and Oregon.

[@LittletbigT]

@@SomePerson-d3z Yes both parties do it, however for the democrats Illinois and maybe Massachussets are the only egregious examples, meanwhile Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Iowa, etc are all majorly favoured towards the republicans.

[@NoProblemoyk]

⁠@@LittletbigTFlorida, Utah, Wisconsin, Tennessee, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Arizona (arguably), Ohio

[@adrianmyers6429]

​@@LittletbigT You left out NJ, WA, CA, and NM.

[@carlosvile9832]

@@adrianmyers6429 And TX, FL, OH, GA, NC

[@BDot-dv7lq]

It's just an insult to the collective intelligence of our country that the felon has any chance AT ALL.

[@pramey]

its really bad

[@boombaamboom5]

Then clearly you are blinded by your feelings to think that. The party democracy and tolerance seems to be the most hateful lol. Let the inflation drown us, but Orange man baad!! Clown

[@jennym2276]

Yup, even worse he’s winning by the electoral college according to polls. Hopefully they are wrong

[@maddoxlane5040]

Even tho it was already blue, blaska tickles my brain

[@f-86zoomer37]

IT'S SO BEAUTIFUL

[@goose9515]

It makes sense when you think about it, like I think ~40% of Alaskans live in Anchorage and even conservatives who live in Alaska would probably be more likely to libertarian leaning than pure maga voters

[@MyLifeAsBrandon]

The amount of gerrymandering is ridiculous…

[@SlayingSuperNerdX]

30:26 I live in AZ. I’m very skeptical of Scweikert to win, kinda corrupt and barely won in 2022. It’s also a left trending district

[@wisdomsleuth77777]

Remind conservatives be a placeholder for democracy so their party gets four years to heal, with a bipartisan seat at the table in the meantime to get the work done for the people, while they work on coming up with a plan and a platform for their constituents hopefully get back some of the respect that Maga took away from them

[@gbassman5341]

He's been biased towards republicans in his AZ predictions for years

[@SlayingSuperNerdX]

@@gbassman5341 there’s reason to be. Everyone thought Lake would win. Everyone thought Masters would bring it close. It looked like Finchem and Hamadeh could win their races. (The latter being 280 votes off)

[@UnderstandPolitics]

The majority of my belief in Schweikert stems from the fact he outran Masters by like 8 points in his district. Even if Trump still loses the seat, I doubt he'll do as poorly as Blake Masters.

[@SlayingSuperNerdX]

@@UnderstandPolitics I definitely see that happening. However Biden won his district by 1.5 points. Schweikert won by 0.9. Biden won the seat by more than the incumbent did. Also the partisan lean before was 13 (if the Gb was 0 -538). In 2020 he won by less than 5. The generic ballot was around D+3. He should have won by 10. In 2022 the seat was R+7. He won by 1. The GB was R+2. That means he should have won by 9. In an even year he would have lost by 1. (PVI source, 538 redistricting map). That’s not even factoring in democrats will probably win the GB by 1-2 points. Just enough to unseat him. Ofc incumbency and fundraising will matter but it’s also a left trending seat with a lackluster incumbent. I give it a 60% chance of flipping. Here’s stuff according to DRA2020: In a R+3 composite and 2016 president he wins by a bit more than 3 D+1 in a D+2 composite. The district is pretty much matching whatever the margin of victory is in that state. Not only if Kamala wins Arizona, but when Gallego wipes the floor with Lake, there will be a downballot effect. Oops didn’t mean to get so calculated about it lol 😅

[@HopeThePerson]

Hey you forgot to cover Jon James seat, MI-10 Detriot suburb. But still loved the video

[@Condon1972]

Excellent analysis. Thank you.

[@ulfnilsson4374]

Hi! Really enjoying these videos with graphic presentations and predictions of polls. For this election there are a number of states that has abortion rights on the ballots as well. I wonder if the might be some correlation between having that up for a vote and how the polling for president, house, and senate is trending in these states, both in general and for men and women respectively. I haven't heard any reporting on this. have you looked into this in any way?

[@UnderstandPolitics]

I'll definitely talk more about abortion rights referendums as we get closer to the election. I think they could have an impact on the presidential races in those states, so I'll get into that in my next presidential prediction.

[@Rodzilla_2000]

Hey U.P, great video as always! Do you think its possible dems pick up 220 something seats in the House? This seems pretty underwhelming. Having a 1 seat majority feels like an underperformance. I keep hoping for a 10-15 seat majority. I'm not an election analyst, so i have no basis for my prediction. Im just curious how possible it is?

[@UnderstandPolitics]

@@Rodzilla_2000 Democrats could y get past 220. This prediction is fairly conservative, but even if they outperform by 1-1.5% nationally, they’d probably be closer to 222 or 223.

[@carlosvile9832]

all comes down to the top of the ticket. I would wait for Allan Lichtman's prediction.

[@f-86zoomer37]

@@UnderstandPolitics I'm thinking dems can get 230. There are a lot of republican incumbents who had close races that will lose. Ken Calvert's seat especially. It's based in Palm Springs, which is a very progressive city and has a very high population of LGBTQ people and college educated. They are going to turn out in such a way that no model can predict.

[@gbassman5341]

He usually thinks Dems will do worse than they actually will

[@ryboits75]

Accidentally flipped a florida district at 15:38 ish

[@chicagomike]

Do you allow us to see the model. This is wonderful. Thanks. Happy to tip.

[@andrewbrinkman6967]

good work mate!!!

[@rebeccawinter472]

Amazing work! A non-partisan poll just came out yesterday showing Fox (D) up by 4 points over Luna (R) in FL-13. Not sure if that changes the call in your model, but given the district is so urban/suburban (relatively), I am surprised it isn’t blue(r).

[@chicagomike]

Very well done thanks I just subscribed.

[@susanelizabeth1724]

Thank you

[@jeffyoung6616]

Great video and model. Thanks

[@RJ-jy5zx]

Hey, love your vids, when can we see the post RFK dropout prediction?

[@UnderstandPolitics]

As soon as I finish my presidential model, which should be within the next few days

[@RJ-jy5zx]

@@UnderstandPolitics beautiful, thank you. Curious, how does your model operate? Is it similar to Nate silver's model, or just intuitively picking who wins each state? Also, have you made a video debunking Allan lichtman's 13 keys model before? Would absolutely love to see one, but I def get that you're busy. Thank you sir

[@jamestepera3356]

I second the request addressing the Lichtman model. He's become extremely annoying touting what seems to be a faux instrument.

[@UnderstandPolitics]

@@jamestepera3356 Sure, I'd be happy to do a video on the Lichtman model

[@Allthingspolitics]

Another great prediction video!

[@UnderstandPolitics]

Thanks for watching!

[@ryanmontgomery3215]

I have a question for you are these under the current district lines are the ones from the previous election from 2022 because the newer gerrymandered map that was implemented early last year Republicans can only get like seven seats

[@johnlabus7359]

NC is so damned gerrymandered that it's ridiculous.

[@utFLYrockets]

I think Chavez-DeRemer(OR 5), Lawler (NY 17), Schweikert (AZ 1) & Valadao (CA 22) all go down too 222 D- 213 R

[@FrankMaloy-x7r]

Let's get ahead of trump in polls and vote for harris 💙 I'm tired of trump let's get rid of trump 💙

[@tomfoolery5680]

​@@Iwishiwasanoscarmeyerweiner Trump and his idiot cult ARE the pandemic. And please, if you're going to be weird, at least get some new, relevant material. Maybe try: "The Gays", The Pronouns" or "The Brown People". Or whatever lines the grifters are feeding the cult these days.

[@rogerelliss9829]

I could go the rest of my life and not see that again. ​@@Iwishiwasanoscarmeyerweiner

[@JamesMartinelli-jr9mh]

tds aLERT

[@Dollarstorenationalist]

As someone from wisconsin i think the 3rd mat very well flip, with baldwin on the ticket, the fact rebbeca cooke is a good candidate and with rond kind having represented it for many years, it has the possibility off a flip, and van orden has had a few controversy since taking office, such as yelling at senate pages and having drinking parties in his office

[@SlayingSuperNerdX]

Did Michigan make another map? I swear there was another competitive district near Detroit that was around 1 point in 2022. I think you marked it safe blue

[@UnderstandPolitics]

No, that was an error on my part. MI-10 should be Lean R.

[@SlayingSuperNerdX]

@@UnderstandPolitics ohh. Well now that makes your map 218-217 😅 narrow majority

[@UnderstandPolitics]

@@SlayingSuperNerdX doesn't get any closer than this!

[@kennethgirouard9776]

Thanks.

[@startrekkid205]

What about Alabama’s second congressional district? I know it’s Alabama but it is a competitive district after the Supreme Court’s ruling to draw up a second majority minority district in the state!

[@carlosvile9832]

you mean majority minority

[@irinashidou9725]

It's a likely blue district?

[@Becca4.2]

I understand polling is expensive but I really hate that we don't have monthly polling in all jurisdictions leading up to federal elections. Solid Red or Blue states haven't had polling done in six months in some cases.

[@driksarkar6675]

Where do you get your information on who would have won each district in 2020 (if they were in their current forms)?

[@luca6508]

Why do you have Chavez De Remer winning? The district is pretty blue and left trending.

[@KahonSuko]

Let’s hope Democrat win back the house

[@AdorableFruit]

I'd love to see the whole spreadsheet

[@A-K_Rambler]

Coffee for U!

[@UnderstandPolitics]

@@A-K_Rambler Thank you so much for your kindness!

[@Idevaughan530]

Good democrat are the clear favorites

[@jacobduncan2142]

Lol. Santos didn't resigned. He was expelled. And just pleaded guilty to some of those federal charges. 😂

[@scottdavis3571]

Polls don't really matter if you Vote. Please Registrar to Vote at your County Registrar of Voters.

[@ShortPerson594]

Why do you have MI-10 as Safe D? Good vid otherwise :)

[@PianoUniverse]

Even without trump's tariffs, his economy is predicted to add 5.8 trillion to the National debt, as stated by Noble prize winning economic experts.

[@charles-valentinalkan6911]

I think you have both MI-10 and TX-24 incorrectly labelled as safe blue, putting your actual prediction at 218 to 217 for republicans

[@walnut362]

7 overrides???? I don’t agree with that assessment.

[@theonlylazarus6813]

Your map would be 218 dem since you have MI-10 as safe blue which I assume is an accident

[@theonlylazarus6813]

And I think TX-24 so it would be a 1 seat republican majority

[@Iamsnuggles]

My honest prediction is a repeat of 2020. I think dems will win the trifecta but by an even narrower margin. Maybe only a 2/3 seat advantage in the house, tie in the senate with Waltz being the tie in the senate. I think Harris wins every state Biden won but Georgia.

[@irinashidou9725]

*Tie breaker She doesn't flip North Carolina?

[@nerd185]

Can you link your model

[@therealsongstress]

👏👏👏

[@SomePerson-d3z]

I wouldn’t disagree with many of these, but I think Mike Garcia is all but certain to win just because he also won the primary with 55% of the vote.

[@UnderstandPolitics]

I could definitely see that. That's one of the calls I felt the worst about.

[@bobjenkins884]

I think your being to conservative, although I get it. I mostly agree so.

[@donowens6527]

lets hope

[@wisdomsleuth77777]

I love all these guys doing these polls 😅 you don't seem to understand what Roe v Wade means to women and how that is going to make a gigantic impact, especially with probably 30% of the GOP considering themselves rhinos now

[@buckeye-bb5yt]

At 15:39 think you flipped a red district blue on accident

[@UnderstandPolitics]

Nah, I had it wrong originally. That seat is safe blue but when I filled out the map before the video I marked it as red on accident.

[@fanaticbeatz]

TRUMP MAGA 2024

[@gggk135]

I think you are way off my friend. I think you are also not factoring enough of the power of down ballot voting which has only increased every 2 years now. The Republicans will definitely win the house majority.

[@gbassman5341]

LMAO at believing the VA polls. Come on, dude. You should know better than that. You're also way too down on WestCoast Dems, in general

[@UnderstandPolitics]

I didn't say I actually believe Harris will only win VA by 3; it's just incorporated into my model. Once we get more VA polls (and Harris likely expands her lead) the districts will move towards Democrats.

[@beam385]

I think Alaska will definitely flip. It’s not going to be a 3 head race this time around. It’s going to be head on head. And with Trump on the ballot, I think it’ll flip.

[@DaBearz_34]

Are you a chiefs fan?

[@beam385]

@@DaBearz_34 Yep

[@DaBearz_34]

@@beam385 let’s see the 3peat!

[@davidwright7193]

If Alaska was actually multi-round run off, which it is pretending to be but isn’t, the Republicans would already have lost. It will be a 3 way contest and Democrats win outright on first round.

[@beam385]

@@DaBearz_34 Chiefs Kingdom will rise! ❤️💛

[@BnzLuft-ce1iz]

Stop taking her side & You will get way more subscribers way faster. Wake up! Trump 2024!