URGENT: Federal Reserve ENDS Rate Hikes, Prices Fall, Massive Pivot Ahead!

Get free life insurance quotes from America’s top insurers and start saving today with Policygenius Policygenius.com/graham. Thanks to Policygenius for sponsoring this video! Let's talk about the Federal Reserve Rate Hike, the Stock Market, and Housing Prices in 2024 - Enjoy! Add me on Instagram: GPStephan
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THE 2024 FEDERAL RESERVE RATE HIKE
INFLATION -
Overall inflation across all items rose by just 3.1%, down from the 3.2% that we saw in October. In terms of the categories that saw a price increase, the largest gainer was car insurance, up 19.2% year over year. With the cost of repairs and replacement going higher, auto insurance companies have been raising their premiums by the biggest annual jump in 47 years - and since insurance premiums are generally set every 6-12 months - this just happens to be the month we see it show up in the inflation data.
We also have sporting events up 16.4% from a year ago, Veterinarian services up 9%, Shipping Fares up 8.4%, and rent of primary residence up 6.9%. The good news is that shelter-inflation does seem to be declining, with a drop of 2% year over year.
HOUSING PRICES -
The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported that home prices have increased by 5.5% year-over-year. As they explained, “home prices appreciated in almost all 50 states….Vermont, Maine, New Hampshire, Connecticut, and New Jersey recorded the highest annual appreciation rates, with the WORST markets coming in for “Hawaii and the District of Columbia, posting negative rates -0.9% and -0.8%."
However, Goldman Sachs believes that the days of “insane price gains” are over - and, starting soon, “we'll likely go back to a 2% type of house price appreciation environment, which is roughly around the trend of the last 30 years or so.”
A separate analyst also seconds this, saying that “national home prices will fall 1.7% in 2024, for the first time - in a decade” - although, that doesn't mean that every area will go down; as they say, “of the 100 large metro areas included in the report, 63 are likely to see prices rise.”
STOCK PRICES - www.financialsamurai.com/2024... (CHECK OUT THE FINANCIAL SAMURAI BLOG)
As of recently, bond and money-market funds saw a RECORD influx as investors cashed in on guaranteed returns - but, this also suggests that there’s a LOT of money sitting on the sidelines that might continue to propel the stock market even higher.
In terms of where stock prices could go from here…the Financial Samurai Blog notes that JP Morgan believes that we’ll actually see the SP500 DECLINE to 4200 in the next year, saying that: “With a step down in economic growth next year, eroding household excess savings and liquidity, and tightening credit, we see the 2024 growth unrealistic… Negative corporate sentiment should be a catalyst for sharply lower estimates early next year.”
However, Wells Fargo is slightly more optimistic, with the SP500 closing out at 4625 - From their perspective, “with VIX low, credit spreads tight, equities rallying, and cost of capital higher, it's time to downshift. Expect a volatile and ultimately flattish SP in 2024, as valuation limits upside and rate uncertainty elevates downside risk.“
Even further down the list, RBC Capital Markets thinks we’ll see 5000 - and BMO believes we’ll hit 5100, and that “stocks will attain another year of positive returns in 2024, albeit while demonstrating more sanguine, broadly distributed, and fundamentally defined performance relative to the last decade or so. In other words, normal and typical.“
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*Some of the links and other products that appear on this video are from companies which Graham Stephan will earn an affiliate commission or referral bonus. Graham Stephan is part of an affiliate network and receives compensation for sending traffic to partner sites. The content in this video is accurate as of the posting date. Some of the offers mentioned may no longer be available. This is not investment advice.

[@GrahamStephan]

Get free life insurance quotes from America’s top insurers and start saving today with Policygenius Policygenius.com/graham. Thanks to Policygenius for sponsoring this video! Here is a link containing the source material for each piece of research cited. I do my best to make my videos as accurate as I can, and the additional resources should help anyone who wants to look into them further - enjoy! docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zqe43xtnxj8k9h4js0jt1IrDEPv0JXzd37edcsSECPU/edit?usp=sharing

[@kevinjeatran5390]

I believe many finance KZbinrs don't consider inflation as being a post Vietnam era idea. Inflation before then use to be people mining more good to make more money. It didn't really exist until modern boomer era. What your take on this

[@TaxmanHog]

Graham & Guys .......?

[@TomNook.]

You gotta stop the spam comments

[@CG-uk1vz]

So now you're back on the bitcoin wave....🤣

[@arag7023]

Nice ride!

[@diane.moore-]

Great video, a number of the most eminent market experts have been expressing their views on the severity of the impending economic downturn and the extent to which equities might plummet. This is because the economy is heading towards a recession and inflation is persistently above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. As I'm aiming to create a portfolio worth no less than $850,000 before I turn 65, I would appreciate any advice on potential investments.

[@ThomasChai05]

There are many other interesting stocks in many industries that you might follow. You don't have to act on every forecast, so I'll suggest that you work with a financial advisor who can help you choose the best times to purchase and sell the shares or ETFs you want to acquire.

[@mikegarvey17]

You're correct! With the help of an investment coach, I was able to diversify my 450K portfolio across markets and produce slightly more than $830K in net profit from high dividend yield equities, ETFs, and bonds.

[@mariaguerrero08]

@@mikegarvey17My partner’s been considering going the same route, could you share more info please on the advisor that guides you?

[@mikegarvey17]

Credits to "Gertrude Margaret Quinto", she maintains an online presence. Just make a simple search for her name online.

[@Susanhartman.]

Insightful... I curiously looked up her name on the internet and I found her site and i must say she seems proficient, wrote her an email outlining my objectives. Thanks for sharing.

[@leonh2044]

Graham is the master of saying a bunch of things without saying anything. Good job Graham

[@Greta_Traderberg]

Dude is just reading the news to us LOL

[@starrebornalpha]

@@Greta_Traderberg albeit in an entertaining way LOL but pretty much

[@randomvideostoupload]

The safest way to make content. YOU need to make your own financial decisions

[@mzvarik]

So, true ... I'm watching for 10 minutes and I know NOTHING... bunch of bs

[@pauls3075]

He cant even get his own name right he opens "Whats up Graham it's Guys here"? WTF is this Graham smoking? Why would you listen to someone who doesnt even know his own name! 😂

[@TheDanFrancis]

Great job putting all of this information together in such a short time!

[@sirlost94]

Gotta love how what the politicians use excludes food and energy. You know. The stuff people actually need to survive

[@GrahamStephan]

...

[@ironmonkey1512]

gas is 2.60$ where I am at

[@jacobwatson3781]

Gas is going down. Also, maybe ask, why are prices not lower when the US is producing more than ever before.

[@JoniAntonio]

@@ironmonkey1512 $2.38 where i'm at.

[@PeopleUnknown0321]

@@ironmonkey1512 Gas is only down because the government is using tax dollars to buy more imported oil. It's a temporary solution to a vary dire problem.

[@VvMagnusvV]

I love the way you make this understandable for me. thanks for your show and all the great content

[@GrahamStephan]

You got it!!

[@the_jonb1]

With my limited knowledge and understanding, your "prediction" seems realistic and probable. I appreciate how accessible you make everything. Keep up the great content, Stephan! May God bless you!

[@jasondillon2567]

Thanks so much for explaining this so well and backing up your research with actual numbers!

[@sarpgurdogan7667]

He explained noting really, just a bunch of yapping

[@LOLKrazie]

My insurance went up because ‘we did not expect anyone driving during covid times, but ended up getting 3x the amount of claims in that time.’ Unfortunately their mess up now affected my premium nearly 35%. Dropped my provider after 10 years. :)

[@nickv4073]

Let me guess. GEICO?

[@saintmte5076]

@@nickv4073 yup

[@ComplicatedLadyBlog]

Yep Geico for me too

[@ROTFLTV]

During the pandemic claim frequency didn’t increase by 3x. Claim severity offset the decrease in frequency. The claim frequency increased after the pandemic and this is where insurance rates increased across the board.

[@donnareeves1754]

The DEX is currently experiencing a major bug, In a video I made, I explain how exchanging results in around x 7.

[@farcry228]

Things are really slowing down. My brother works at a car dealership and he said people of all but stopped buying new cars. He's been keeping track of new car inventory in his area and in June there was 29,000 cars new in a 50 mile radius. September it was 35, 000. Now it's just over 40,000 new cars for sale.

[@jonathanbaker2789]

What if car production increased?

[@harryireland1935]

@@jonathanbaker2789 What if you come to realize, this ponzi-scheme they call our economies have reached the end of growth by ever increasing debt? If the majority can't afford even the cheapest car and more importantly, a house that used to actually live in (not a buy to let or AirBnB), what are you actually saying here?

[@farcry228]

@@jonathanbaker2789 from what I understand it's both. Production has increased greatly and new car sales are slowing fast.

[@operationretribution1263]

​@jonathanbaker2789 car manufacturing went down with the uaw strikes.

[@joo02]

@@jonathanbaker2789 doesn't matter if car production increased or demand decreased. the fact is there are more cars in the lot and price hikes will slow down and likely other things will start coming down as well

[@TVHouseHistorian]

Thanks for keeping us informed, *Fiola!*

[@MrDantheman888]

Love the videos you put out! Thank you for all the great content over the years

[@pauls3075]

Yeah its really funny, I watch for the giggles. I love this one, he doesnt even say his own name right at the start. 🤣

[@Judithmoy109]

Stocks extended their year-to-date rally following the CPI report, with the S&P 500 last up 0.8% in afternoon trading. but I don't know if stocks will quickly rebound, continue to pull back or move sideways for a few weeks, or if conditions will rapidly deteriorate.I am under pressure to grow my reserve of $250k.

[@Lettogle109]

It's really hard to beat the market as a mere investor. It's just better if you invest with the help of a professional understands the market dynamics better.

[@Kimdavid109]

Picking stocks is a risky thing to do, particularly for non-professionals. I learnt that in 2020, when I lost almost everything. But I switched to using a financial advisor and I've been returning at least $38k every month so I’ve been sticking to investing via an Advisor.

[@Kimdavid109]

VALERIE JEAN ZWOSTA That’s my licesed Financial advisor you can easily look her up, Thank me later!

[@lathamwilfred1181]

@@Kimdavid109 This is a priceless information, Came at the right time.

[@moneycessity]

A 1.7% dip in home prices nationwide is hard to notice for an individual because the market varies SO much by location. You really have to look at housing markets on a much smaller scale to get actionable information.

[@j-rod0259]

Just finished my first full year with my car for the first time ever, my insurance went from a gross 303 a month, to 375… no accidents, no issues, nothing wrong at all and it went up 75$…

[@apaskiewicz]

Graham, you have been a great inspiration to me as far as investing. Thanks for sharing your knowledge with us!

[@Loveisalongroad]

Graham, I'm from New Mexico and a avid fan of your channel. I go to New Mexico State University and I always bring you up to my economics professors. Much love big dawg, thanks for everything you do.

[@GrahamStephan]

Thanks so much!

[@geraldbennett7035]

sorry to hear you are in Albuquerque. It reminds me of San Jose in the 1970s. Stunted.

[@piopi_starjr7455]

Ay much love from EP. Go Miners! 🤙

[@tylerburns1457]

Been an agent in AR watching your stuff for a while. Appreciate your work!

[@GrahamStephan]

Awesome! Thank you so much!

[@mrmoeezali]

Thanks man, great video!

[@daveyjamesolson]

Great vlog! Thanks for the info!

[@livephysiology]

It would be fascinating to see Graham do more of these "prophecy fulfillment" videos, where he shows what various sources said the stock or housing market would be by now from a year ago.

[@krismoriarty6834]

Great information as usual. Thank you for all of your work was curious if you would ever do a video about the benefit versus risk of building an ADU on your property

[@GrahamStephan]

I've looked into it a TON - might do a full video on an upcoming project at some point!

[@mlr975]

Been here before 500k subs congratulations on your growth, you deserve it all!

[@stephencantbewrong8250]

Thank you!

[@Kaellear]

Love your contente🙏🏾 only 20 and getting well informed to start investing in the stock market!

[@steelvalleysportsmen7737]

So I do high-end carpentry and wood working in North East Ohio. I keep waiting for demand to go down, but it never has. I think if the market goes green, everyone is just going to spend more. I sure as gell hope so anyways. Providing a luxury services I should have been the first to get hit, but thinks have just kept cranking on

[@shawnpmorgan]

Really appreciate your videos and insights Graham! Thank you!!

[@ADi-vb4ql]

bro ty bro for the jerome powels speaks do more of this

[@okaydamian]

They better do right. Something will eventually break if they keep raising interests and quantitative tightening.

[@arlenehill4ril]

the Fed can keep printing credit as long as someone will borrow it into existence, but production cannot be printed

[@fromthebirchwood]

deduction of interest rates in 1984 led to a depression in the farm economy and agricultural states. a generation of farmers and ranchers were wiped out

[@LupeBaptista]

scary! where do investors look at right away to gain and safeguard wealth? heard suggestions on debt from Robert Kiyosaki while some pundits point at small cap stocks, not sure I could handle investing on my own as of now

[@HaroldsTKO]

very insightful comments, just came across the official site of Theresa Leigh Detrick after pasting her full name on the web, I find her highly professional and well qualified, already scheduled a call session with her hoping she will be available

[@bigz5262]

If they don’t raise rates we’re going to go into hyperinflation

[@Mr-sweeny]

Stocks are falling and bond yields are rising, but markets still don’t seem convinced the Federal Reserve will pursue plans to keep increasing interest rates until inflation is under control. I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $117k stocck portfolio, what’s the best way to take advantage of this bear market?

[@PhilipDunk]

For the average Joe, the tactics are rather demanding. In actuality, most of them are effectively completed by experts who possess the necessary knowledge and skill set to carry out such occupations.

[@PatrickLloyd-]

With their entire skill set centred around going long and short at the same time, using risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, I enjoy having a portfolio coach guide my day-to-day market decisions. Combined with their access to exclusive information and analysis, it's nearly impossible to not outperform. Using a portfolio coach for more than two years, I have made over $300,000 in profit.

[@Nernst96]

This sounds interesting. My portfolio is in the red. Can you recommend your analyst, please?

[@PatrickLloyd-]

Vivian Carol Gioia That’s my licensed Financial advisor you can easily look her up, Thank me later!

[@Nernst96]

I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.

[@jozek0625]

I just wanted to let you know that I like that you ask/remind me to hit the like button. Your time and commitment to report/comment valuable information in the manner that you do is a contribution. Thank you

[@isaacwolowik]

Incredible clip. Bless you.

[@brodograph]

What’s up Graham, it’s guys here! We appreciate your scramble and videos

[@GrahamStephan]

you got it!!

[@Qu1nt_travels]

If all goes well and even if rates drop in the slightest, do you see housing inventory or new builds going up at all in 2024? Can you also make a video of possible too on your takes on the VA homeloan and its advantages other than the 0% down? I was glad to hear while I was at work that the fed is stopping rate hikes. Even so, I’ve been noticing gas dropping too since thanksgiving and here Raleigh I’ve seen an average of $2.75 a gallon

[@falcorzed]

What are the pros of no down payment? Seems like it’s a big trade off for higher monthly no?

[@PinkFZeppelin]

@@falcorzed You could use that money to buy points, or you could use it to improve the house, you could keep the down payment as an emergency fund if you lose your job, you get more tax write offs from the increase in interest payments, or you could use it to invest in stocks. If you can take a 0% down loan and afford the additional payment it’s a no brainer.

[@user-pq4ee8wh9p]

Great Information. Thank You

[@dwalker6868]

Thank you for the video

[@TexCen]

Worth mentioning: Gold & Silver prices will increase (possibly dramatically) once rates start getting cut again. They always have. Just look at the spike PMs saw yesterday with the mere mention rates might cut in '24. Obviously, don't yeet into any asset class & don't take my word for it, look at the trends/correlation for yourself - but a cpl oz of gold/silver could outperform many other investments next year % wise. Added benefit: Unlike stocks, they cannot go to $0.

[@localfocalkc]

My car insurance went up 30%. And this is after getting a perfect score on progressive.

[@Metroplexkickz]

Bro u always quick with the updates!

[@GrahamStephan]

Have to be! If I miss it by a few hours, everyone else has already covered it!

[@Shorttimer05]

Thanks for your hard work

[@jameszeng2666]

Totally agree with you, the Fed can't risk droping rate and find out they shouldn't have done that...I believe Chair P won't drop rate until Sep 2024... or even till Dec 2024

[@OroborusFMA]

I was happy to tie up money in CDs at 5.50% for ten to twelve months. But ten years? No way.

[@user-ne9fr8xh1v]

Thanks man. Love your channel.

[@alienesse]

Your content is always A1.

[@aaront936]

Prices aren't falling. Theyre just rising minisculely slower.

[@hardyfinancialcoaching]

As a realtor with 20 years of experience and an investor I think a lot of buyers are done being patient and will be making some moves come spring. Mortgage rates have begun dropping.

[@andresmarchena1758]

Again people don’t want to use all or more than 30% of there income on housing, people are waiting for prices to fall they are waiting for incomes to rise

[@PharticusMcbutt]

As someone that solely relies on people buying houses to earn a living, my unbiased opinion is that people will be buying houses (I’ve never predicted a downturn because why would I insert pessimism into the industry I rely on for livelihood)

[@hardyfinancialcoaching]

@@andresmarchena1758 I agree!

[@Lucky008aau]

Thank you for your research Graham.

[@TheMacs1]

Good video Graham

[@RodThePlatypus]

One of if not the BEST financial channel out there! Will forever recommend you to all the youngsters looking to have a financial literate life!

[@GrahamStephan]

Aw thank you!

[@BobI-jb4rk]

Appreciate you having the balls to put an informative video without fearmongering.

[@runva1]

you are awesome Graham

[@devencherry8976]

love the videos, keep up the good work.

[@Mckennie61751]

Given reduced inflation signals and as the Federal Reserve has halted rate hikes, what are the best additions for a $500K portfolio to enhance the overall performance of my portfolio next year

[@WestonScally7614]

Look for stocks that have paid steady, increasing dividends for years (or decades), and have not cut their dividends even during recessions. Alternatively speaking to a certified market strategist can help with pointers on equities to acquire

[@louis71350]

I need a guide so i can salvage my port-folio and come up with better strategies. How can one reach this advisor?

[@louis71350]

I searched for her name on the internet, found her page, and reached out via email to schedule a conversation. Thank you.

[@Itswebbgaming]

Nvidia and Apple is a simple answer

[@royrunyon1286]

Bitcoin

[@davidpalmo6050]

While falling inflation can be a positive sign, leading to lower Treasury yields, the increased investment in bonds often reflects a broader concern about an impending economic slowdown or recession. In such scenarios, investors seek the safety of bonds, not necessarily because of positive economic conditions, but due to concerns about future economic uncertainty

[@NewMoneyFinancial-bw3jn]

Hey guys, this is the best video, and I like watching it a lot.

[@tp3039]

Great analysis, thank you 👍

[@GrahamStephan]

Glad you liked it!

[@richhands5269]

My three favorite channels: Graham Stephan, Stock Brotha, & Joshua Mayo. Make my week complete! 🔥 🔥 🔥

[@GrahamStephan]

Thanks!

[@ItsAlive111]

Thanks you must be stock brotha, the penny stock pusher

[@WhirlpoolEnzyme]

Would've liked for you to pull up a chart showing what historically has happened to the stock market when the fed begins rate cuts

[@GrahamStephan]

They're all over the place, but typically cuts are good long term for markets

[@Kingslayer513]

​@@GrahamStephanin nearly every case, the Fed cuts before stocks bottom, not when markets are roaring to new all time highs. This has been very consistent over the past 50+ years.

[@morgan5885]

​@@Kingslayer513this is interesting, do you have a good link where someone could look at this more?

[@colinbailey7161]

The markets are trying to roar higher but the Wilshire to GDP says it is way over valued at current levels. This is why Warren Buffett is sitting on 125 billion in cash. He isn't buying. Not yet anyway

[@The-Capitalist]

Let’s look at the S&P 500 following periods where the yield curve uninverted and they cut rates. 2000 -56% 2008 -57% 2020 -37%. Ask yourself why Buffett has a record amount of cash equivalents and just sold another 30 billion. But Graham is right, the stock market goes up over time.

[@willski52]

@graham Thanks for talking about the doom spending taking place. This is a huge issue few people are talking about. Can you do an entire video deep-diving this issue? Thanks.

[@JordR3121]

Love the soul patch Graham!

[@BowlerActuary]

Dollar cost averaging is literally the only way to not go insane over the market. It’s a wonderful yet simple tool.

[@LapoSapo]

not really

[@cipri2716]

exactly.. i’m investing $1k every month, but when the market goes red, i invest even more

[@Maxwells-Place]

I started watching FED live update and decided to stop watching and wait for you to drop your explanation video. Dude, you give ordinary people a chance to understand and prepare. For that, I am forever grateful!

[@GrahamStephan]

I appreciate that!

[@ScottWhalen81]

Agreed, By FAR!

[@privettoli]

Well, the Fed has been consistent with their actions, you just have to believe them which is hard for some reason for many analysts.

[@redslate]

The Fed explains things pretty plainly... The last *several* announcements have all been tailored to the LCD.

[@Maxwells-Place]

@@redslateexactly, plain explanation. Grahams perspective is refreshing. I can only listen to monotone for so long. I’ll leave that to guys like you. 😊

[@mattanderson6672]

Thanks G

[@gefieldsss]

You are fast my friend, very fast. Nice wrk getting this out fast.

[@GrahamStephan]

You got it!

[@amyyoshikawa7698]

Hi Stephan I hope the economy improves for the low income people. For people who make less income. Stay well and safe 🙏👍

[@GrahamStephan]

We'll see what happens! And you too!

[@EmilyGloeggler7984]

Proverbs 21:13 ESV - Whoever closes his ear to the cry of the poor will himself call out and not be answered.

[@daynaandsteve]

As an agent in Hawaii I love your videos! It's interesting to see whats happening on the mainland.

[@GrahamStephan]

Glad you like them!

[@aidymlovisotto412]

thanks!

[@coreyfrench915]

thx brother!!!!!

[@stevied721]

Do you think this will create a higher demand for houses and the prices will go up even higher?

[@Jordan-hj9kq]

No lol

[@InvestingWithAdamK]

Yes

[@HH-le1vi]

It would have to go down more than .75%, but demand likely will go up with lower interest rates regardless of inventory since people still want to buy houses.

[@falcorzed]

@@Jordan-hj9kq that’s a very confident no given how many people are sitting on the sidelines ready to buy. Inventory is super low, prices continue to rise and yet people are buying.

[@InvestingWithAdamK]

@@falcorzed totally agree. Markets look strong to me

[@Yo_Kelz]

Damn near everyone is saying "higher for longer". To me that means we'll prolly get rate cuts sooner than expected.

[@sparksmcgee6641]

Higher for longer means they will stay where they are now.

[@exnecross3141]

I think he means everyone is always wrong with rate predictions.​@@sparksmcgee6641

[@christinab9133]

Excellent 🎉❤❤❤

[@IHgamingWSB]

Thanks

[@user-es8ho9qs5l]

Dang right after the meeting end. The devil works hard but graham works harder😅

[@GrahamStephan]

Gotta be quick! ATH by end of year??

[@JohnAngle-vw8yq]

Didn’t this happen once before and they stopped hikes too soon and that led to a huge crash?

[@errornull390]

Here’s hoping!

[@imharbinger]

The last time Fed did that was when US was coming out of gold standard.

[@w12p67]

Hyperinflation, here we come.

[@elexismcmullen6032]

love the efficiency

[@hellrot8250]

G-RAM... Thanks for the videos

[@GrahamStephan]

You bet!

[@octaviorex244]

I just hit 20k on my investments I had cero dollars three years ago and I definitely got educated on this channel thank you so much for the knowledge you changed my life for the better.

[@madhadder6754]

Ok so as a rule of thumb 👍 the crash normally comes after the rates change direction and in the past when the fed changes direction it means they see something we don't they always change direction before the crash

[@5dc61]

I basically said this right before reading your post lol

[@deosilic]

As a Licensed Insurance Agent what Graham said is accurate, but you also have to take into account length of repairs, rental car payouts, accidents going up, etc. there’s a lot of reasons prices have increased.

[@themarcandjunieshow9267]

Outstanding video!

[@GrahamStephan]

Glad you liked it!

[@xx-tf3nw]

What’s up Graham guys here ! 😂

[@GrahamStephan]

;)

[@AllHandsMechanic]

Hell of a observant 😂

[@PropertyReview]

Great video update ​@@GrahamStephan

[@BTC28000]

Good channel for mainstream news

[@MultiBaggerInvesting]

Silent recession happened in 2022 in my opinion. Two declining quarters of GDP is a recession. Swept under the rug. Speculative assets turning back into favor.

[@pwalsh691]

Stocks might go up a lot in 2024 or they might just go up a little. Of course they might also go down a lot. Or maybe just a little. On the other hand they might just remain the same.😁

[@dakk3]

You're right, but they may even go in circles, i saw it in a movie

[@WookieSenshi]

Just watched my taxable brokerage account go up 1.32% in the last 24 hours. Lol man I love being a long term investor. Buying the dip pays off time and time again.

[@TankAssTanner]

Ha yup me too. Been nice watching my brokerage account go up 30-40k this past month.

[@TheShadeManGuitar]

It is gunna crash back down lol

[@The-Capitalist]

I hope you buy the dip in 2024 when the market dips 35-60%

[@TankAssTanner]

@The-Capitalist I doubt it's going to crash to 2008 levels as you seem to so casually predict. Even if it does, as a long term investor that's fine/like you allude to buy the dip. My brokerage had negative overall returns all these past two years and I just kept investing all that way. Big dips are when people really make $$$.

[@The-Capitalist]

@@TankAssTanner Look at the yield curve, look at m2 money supply growth, look at historical trends and how a deeply inverted yield curve correlated to rate cuts and stock prices. A glance at the Wilshire 5000 to GDP ratio will also aid you.

[@kdog1981]

Rochester NY here!

[@angelromero2118]

Hi Romero its Graham love your videos. Keep up the good work!

[@Varsha-Sadguna750]

Ive had the feeling BTC would be going to 40k as well. Clearing out all my Alts going into BTC and AMZ650K only, maybe a little BNB.

[@jacksonbilly9979]

Yea because buying it at 40k when it high instead of a month ago when it was 27 is a genius idea 😂

[@sirchucky247]

These comments are so bizzare they are spammed on finance channels but seem AI Generated and promote stock so someone somewhere owns that stock or is invested somehow and is profiting but these comments are everywhere... who's ai is doing dis

[@theedwardian]

​@sirchucky247 Some Indian guy who made a doodoocoin.

[@larrybassik2768]

To the Moon 🚀 😂

[@JordanSkoubo]

Scammers

[@Sevita-Kaveri4481]

I really appreciated this video, as a medium-term AMZ650K holder. I know you commented on not many people paying attention to this, but it was very relevant for holders such as myself. After watching your thoughts, I willbuy more. I also remember your ear

[@sirchucky247]

You commented so many times on this video who runs your account

[@rickvian]

looks like bots

[@mirshaharo483]

I think it's an ai bot scripted to comment the same thing to create an e-social following because of popularity and similarity in the comments pushing likes and furthering the algo to bump one or some of them to obviously rug pull these poor people liking these comments and blindly investing.

[@sirchucky247]

@rickvian yeah but someone runs the bots unless it's just ai O.o

[@CarnageAwakens]

I was literally just looking for a life insurance policy, thanks Graham 👍

[@nightshade9977]

The only life insurance policy is found in Jesus Christ.

[@DesmondMiles333]

It's criminal that you didn't mention Tom Lee and Fundstrat Research. Have a great Xmas. Cheers...!!!!

[@buzzypeterson1147]

I think when rates drop the market crashes. When rates are going up.. people buy…. If they don’t it will cost more later. They have fear of missing out on a lower rate. If rates are going down, then there is reason to wait. They will do better if they wait.

[@fingertapper88]

This take makes the most sense of what I've read on this subject

[@user-vn5dt1jz3r]

Lol it's actually the complete opposite buddy, when rates rise markets drop as they fear theirs less growth from businesses. Every time their was a fed meeting and they announced rate hikes markets dropped and than slowly recovered with the people that had cash sitting on the side, dollar cost averaging.

[@The-Capitalist]

@@user-vn5dt1jz3rRate cuts in a period where the yield curve uninverts is extremely bearish for stocks. Examples are 2000 and 2008. 2024-2025 will be no different from these.

[@Romns1513]

All I know is, we need housing prices to go down by at least 40% lol. I know it will probably never happen, but I’m still hoping for some kind of housing market “crash” in the next couple years. It is insane in so many parts of the country, it makes me want to rip my hair out. Rent is so high too, it takes too long to save up enough for a decent down payment with two incomes. Ridiculous.

[@Legendary_UA]

Houses are not going down 40% . If that's your game plan, it's game over.

[@asmith7094]

You need to buy somewhere cheaper, or lower your standards.

[@jeffrounsville4961]

Great video

[@MosesKabandana]

Great value packed into one video.

[@GrahamStephan]

Glad it was helpful!

[@piratecody44]

What I find interesting is that now compared to all previous times in history data so readily available and easily seen that maybe a soft landing might actually be possible After finishing the video: I wonder if the reason that things are so strange as in there is still High employment and people still spending is because of all the money given out. Not even just as stimulus checks but the basically free money the government was giving out. Those are why there wasn’t a “massive recession” like so many feared. 🤔

[@davidallen2682]

The key to it is that the data is manipulated and will always present a soft landing. I know many right now that are taking a hard landing and it hasn’t even started yet. It’s all manipulation. Control the numbers and you can control the narrative.

[@georgebasonathan4784]

Predicting market movements is extremely difficult in reality. It requires the investor to be right twice: Essentially why individuals engage service of experts who provide proper strategies to navigate the markets

[@0311andnice]

Love this upload speed

[@GrahamStephan]

thanks!!

[@EconMcCausland]

I liked his BRICs currency/de-dollarization prediction.