Using Bayesian Approaches & Sausage Plots to Improve Machine Learning - Computerphile

[@paulmitchell2916]

Playing "mastermind" when I was 12, I was astonished to see the decoder make a guess that couldn't possibly be right, then solve the puzzle on the next guess.

[@andrewharrison8436]

That's a nice algorithm in the decoder. The "best" guess is the one where each answer narrows down the possibilities the most. That's a lovely conceptual leap but then implementing in code is an interesting problem.

[@rmsgrey]

Yeah, while guessing possible combinations gives you a chance of being right on each guess, so optimises your best case number of guesses, if you want to minimise your expected number of guesses, or your worst-case number of guesses, you'll sometimes want to guess something that can't possibly be right in order to best separate the remaining possibilities. For example, if you guess ABCC and get one black, then guess ADEF and get two blacks and two whites, you then know that the answer has to be one of ADFE, AFED or AEDF. You could pick one to guess, getting either four blacks, or one black and three whites, then guess a second, and finally guess the third if needed, with equal chances of taking 3, 4 or 5 guesses to get the four blacks. Or you could guess ADEE, which would give three blacks, two blacks one white, or one black two whites respectively for the three possible answers, and guarantee taking 4 guesses to get the four blacks. Same expected value, worse best case, and better worst case. I make no claim that those first two moves are in any way optimal, by the way - they're just a way to reach a situation where there are three remaining cases. If you have four remaining cases, where incorrectly guessing one tells you nothing about the others, then making a single impossible guess that distinguishes all four would improve your expected number of guesses too. With fourteen possible responses to a given guess, you can save a lot of guesses with one impossible guess, though coming up with scenarios where you have precisely n different possibilities and can distinguish them with the results of a single guess is challenging and probably impossible for larger n.

[@paulmitchell2916]

@@andrewharrison8436 I didn't understand this presenter at first. I thought he was approximating the whole function.. In that case taking your next observation at the widest point of the max area "sausage" seems best, analogous to the mastermind case. But I guess his task was to find a global min.. which is more likely to be near an already discovered min. How much more likely? That would seem to depend on the variability of the data.. Did he say what his "acquisition function" is? If he did, I didn't understand it.

[@Xeridanus]

@@rmsgrey Not impossible. Wordle works on the same principle, but it has a limited space of guesses. Not sure if it's exactly 1:1 comparable because of that and if it isn't, I have no instinct for which would be a more difficult set of choices. The Wordle word list would have embedded information that could be used to help solve it though. I believe Wordle solvers use graph theory in trying to find the optimal path to a solution.

[@Xeridanus]

@@paulmitchell2916 Your reply seems more relevant to the video at hand and not the comment you replied to.

[@BenitoAndito]

The lower uncertainty between close points sounds intuitive, but it becomes a challenge to define how close observations are, especially in high dimensional space such as in the biology space, like genomics and proteomics. I'd like to pick his brain about applying Bayesian methods in these cases.

[@nightmix]

Interesting comment!

[@jaiveersingh5538]

Curse of dimensionality strikes again

[@Juan-qv5nc]

When I stumble across these kinds of stuff I try different metrics with an example of which I know the outcome. Then I choose the metric that suits better in such a context, or invent a new measurement system. Sometimes suitable measures don't satisfy triangle inequality.

[@petergerdes1094]

The whole problem is presuming some given background probability measure on the functions being minimized and it flows from that. I mean if it was literally an arbitrary function from R to R you couldn't say anything and even for continuous ones you probably want to assume some bound on variation (if all your measure is concentrated in high frequency functions nearby points don't tell you much)

[@Zahlenteufel1]

I would appreciate more in-depth videos about all sorts of Bayesian approaches, particularly the neural variety.

[@parhwy]

Thank you for this video. I first encountered Bayesian modelling when I was watching KZbins with Dr Richard Carrier who accompanied it with his review of ancient history and historicity. I never quite got it but your description of those graphs and each joints veracity/accuracy was solid in my brain. Thanks!

[@wmoani-2606]

Thank you, Richard Hendriks

[@GeoffryGifari]

So the sausage plot not only visualizes confidence in what the fitting curve looks like but also directly constrains the shape of the curve (to be inside the sausage)?

[@ImmortalDuke]

There is always dots in a sausage stand.

[@davidmurphy563]

No. You should probably see a doctor.

[@rmsgrey]

@@davidmurphy563 Or an optician

[@sillystuff6247]

One of the best computerphile vids I've seen. ML/AI is the hottest thing on Earth (at the moment). This vid helps a tech person expand their intuitive understanding. Would like real world examples (actual data) showing what is meant by "exploring" & "exploiting" to get "lower function values". For example, maybe apply this Bayesian technique to finding an optimal cookie recipe. Helpful for less abstract thinkers. Appreciate Prof Osborne's calm clear way of explaining.

[@jeromethiel4323]

Oatmeal raisin! Solved it for you. ^-^

[@landsgevaer]

Nuclear fusion research is a lot hotter, I would argue...

[@tbird-z1r]

Hard to watch with the mask.. Should have recorded it when he was feeling better.

[@YPOC]

Ever since I've started learning about Machine Learning I've been intrigued by Gaussian Processes, based on the Bayesian approach. However I never got around to studying more complex applications than what is depicted here, a simple 1D-prediction. Surely more dimsensions are possible, but I'd love to see another video about real world implementations and use cases.

[@MahendraReddy-zy7hy]

Hey, can you tell me where can I learn machine learning from basics?

[@yensteel]

​@@MahendraReddy-zy7hy Statquest is a great start

[@MahendraReddy-zy7hy]

@@yensteel so, ml is all about statistics and probability ??

[@yensteel]

@@MahendraReddy-zy7hy Nope, a lot of math and algorithms as well.

[@yensteel]

​@@MahendraReddy-zy7hy So, At the basics, all you really need to learn are: Python OR R, and the machine learning algorithms at an intuitive level. It tends to be the first class in a Data Science Masters program. For example, you learn python, so you can start coding. If/Else, functions, print, and arrays for data. You need to learn to get the data to fit to the parameters of the ML model. Some arrays are nx1, others are n, a 1d array, which are not compatible to create a m x 2 dataset. Others need to be transformed, so n x m is m x n array. Then once you're comfortable, you learn python packages such as pandas, numpy, sci-py, and matplotlib/seaborn. Anaconda is recommended as it installs all the needed components. Pandas reads CSVs and handles time data, categorical data, and can output to new csv. Numpy is the math library, and sci-py has most of the ML stuff. Jupyter notebook is a great way to work with python and get outputs. So, you start working with sci-py's ML tools to work with data. SVM and Random Forest is a great start, and you use Matplotlib to graph the results. Then, you learn neural networks.. It is HIGHLY recommended to code your first Neural Network from scratch, using basic layers in numpy. Keras in Tensorflow gets basic results with a few lines, but will be too limiting later on. Most people moved to Pytorch. You can practice NN for CNN for images, Classification of data, Regression, and LSTM/Transformers forecasting, and get a handle of them. Then, you're close to becoming a data scientist! Halfway there. Then, you can get on with what others love to talk about, LLM and GAN... or be like me and mess around with niche algorithms or your own ML algorithms. I use multi-gene symbolic regression so that I can make low-level ML inference at the Verilog level for HFT tradnig.

[@isaac10231]

You should do a video on long term memory and data corruption cause it seems people forgot masks were a thing.

[@Species1571]

Masks were a thing, their effect was not a thing.

[@snex000]

Even worse, some people forgot that decades of studies showed that masks don't stop airborne viruses.

[@ThingsAreGettingTooSpicy]

@@snex000 Please cite those studies.

[@snex000]

@ Pubmed has always been there, dumdum.

[@ThingsAreGettingTooSpicy]

@@snex000 Cool then you should have no problem actually citing it. Go on, I'll wait.

[@bl33kselderij]

Woohoo, awesome topic! :-) more Bayesian stuff please!

[@yannkitson116]

Careful the weather Gods don't like Bayesian stuff!

[@TRex-fu7bt]

I thought this was going to be about Gaussian processes based on the sausage visual, so it was cool to learn about Bayesian optimization instead

[@DF-ss5ep]

This probably applies to recommender systems as well, right? For example, in online commerce and other web environments, it is possible to do experiments dynamically

[@LoganKearsley]

My Bayesian prior is that everyone complaining about the mask is a right-wing American.

[@andrewharrison8436]

You would need a confidence level with that (100% isn't allowed but might be close).

[@LoganKearsley]

@@KerrySoileau No application was necessary, as I was born to citizen parents on a US Air Force base.

[@snex000]

It's almost like they tried masks in 1918 and found through decades of scientific studies that they don't stop airborne viruses.

[@mrbell2827]

Boom

[@northernmetalworker]

A little reductive don't you think?

[@puffinjuice]

I'd like to know how effective this is compared to just adding a datapoint midway. When I do experiemts I usually get a few datapoints first and fill in the gaps once I have identified the regions of interest. I wonder if a Bayesian approach like this would help me to identify the underlying behaviour faster?

[@andyhall7032]

you had me at sausage plots.

[@arturaugustyniak212]

Kinda sorta reminds me gradient descent mixed with binary search

[@charstringetje]

And of Thompson sampling

[@arturaugustyniak212]

@@charstringetje I wanted to grab a beer and chill out and now I have to read about it ;) Thanks! :D

[@superman39756]

We need a numberphile or computerphile video on conformal prediction for uncertainty quantification! It is time as CP is rising in popularity in 2024

[@Drakonak]

So happy to see an N95 casually in a video

[@snex000]

Why? You hate science or something?

[@northernmetalworker]

Why would that make you happy? That's a sign of illness not health?

[@error.418]

@@snex000 wat

[@snex000]

@@error.418 Sorry you can't read scientific papers or look at the data on mask usage wrt viruses.

[@error.418]

@@snex000 Sorry you're clueless and cherry-picking

[@rqrqrqrqrq]

It's an ML video people. That's the contract when you're clicking to the video. He could've wear the Gandalf's hat and wouldn't matter a bit. edit: i am glad this comment became irrelevant

[@codycast]

? Okay and?

[@rqrqrqrqrq]

and no reason to polarize over nothing. when we can already have a common ground of shared interests

[@error.418]

wat edit: oh, idiots making negative comments about the mask, I'm with ya

[@HalfDoughnut]

lovely to see someone masking and showing it in video!!

[@stefanolassandro886]

So cool!

[@newerstillimproved]

Excellent visualization and explanation!

[@sahilsaraswat2588]

Nice

[@Danny-hj2qg]

Could've been a Numberphile video.

[@Juan-qv5nc]

probably

[@georgesos]

I wonder why he calls "observations" what are actually guesses. Yes it can be right, but it can also be far from being right.

[@AgentM124]

Machine Learning is so contagious these days :)

[@nielsSavantKing]

But why this human is wearing a muzzle?

[@bengoodwin2141]

These comments are full of insane people

[@tbird-z1r]

Brady heavily censors comments on his channel. Anything wrongthink will be removed, don't worry.

[@northernmetalworker]

When was this filmed?

[@djbehnkevideo]

Proof that you don't have to be smart to be a professor. Live in fear, doc!

[@jeromethiel4323]

Sawsages! I watch this channel because i am very into computers. But i would have watched this in any case, because... SAWSAGES! P.S. I spelled sausages wrong on purpose, for emphasis. Saw-Sage-Es!

[@ad_781]

Oh no, it's Covid-24 !

[@skytech2501]

Why is he wearing masks?

[@cocacoalabaer]

Maybe he's sick, maybe he doesn't want to get sick. Maybe he's in cancer treatment or had a transplant. Why do you even care?

[@_zelatrix]

Because he's sensible. I'm actually thrilled to see it. Honestly I'd be annoyed to not see it in a video about Bayesian statistics in the middle of a pandemic that the world has been tricked into thinking has finished.

[@Danny-hj2qg]

Probably recovering from the flu or pneumonia.

[@bothrealting2598]

@@_zelatrixbro what ! I don’t know anyone with Covid, you?

[@hopperelec]

Someone else mentioned he had long COVID, which is more common than many people seem to think

[@Daniel-u5m6y]

the thing that hath been it is that which shall be done and that which is done is that which shall be done and there is no new thing under the sun. Ecclesiastes 1:9

[@UnderstandingCode]

Looks like its flu season across the pond as well

[@niet9393]

he has developed long covid. thats why

[@fruityfriend]

Whatever the reason for the 'face-diaper' as some other user called it: I hope you get better. Thank you for providing us with top notch educational content.

[@misterhat5823]

Face diaper beats pooping yourself like trump.

[@quarteratom]

Stop wearing masks on video. Stop talking in masks on video. This video is unwatchable.

[@hopperelec]

He probably has something like long COVID, or has an immune condition. The video is perfectly watchable, stop whining about someone trying to keep themself and others safe

[@SDLearmonth]

❄️

[@lbgstzockt8493]

Cry about it.

[@Yassinius]

Who cares?

[@sanfransardine]

That's what I get from computerphile is watching the narrators beautiful lips. Without the mouths all the frisson is gone.

[@tbird-z1r]

For future videos, why not explain why he's wearing a mask? "I apologise for the mask, but I've recently been in hospital for some treatment." (Note the opsite dressing on the right forearm) We'd all understand if he said that, and even the most cooked of us wouldn't complain. But you let the poor guy look like he's some sort of nut job!

[@misterhat5823]

Why should he apologize?

[@tbird-z1r]

@misterhat5823 Because it's weird, and it's harder for people to understand him. Acknowledging this and making your apologies is the polite and neurotypical thing to do in western English speaking countries.

[@misterhat5823]

@@tbird-z1r It's not hard to hear him. That's just trumpist BS.

[@karenrobertsdottir4101]

For future comments, why not explain your haircut? "I apologise for the haircut, but I recently had an accident with a blowtorch." (Note the singe marks on tbird-z1r's eyebrows) We'd all understand if he wrote that, and even the most cooked of us wouldn't complain. But you let the poor internet troll look as though he's some sort of a nut job!

[@TRex-fu7bt]

Why not make someone explain why they are wearing glasses, hearing aid, a bandaid on their hand, etc?

[@ibrahiymmuhammad4773]

hahahahah

[@timothybradford8216]

Oh, a computerphile video! Oh, a mask.

[@BarbarianGod]

oh a covid denier

[@tupapau1241]

WTH with the mask 😷. It's for painting... Not for talking about sausages 😂😂😂

[@cocacoalabaer]

Maybe he's sick, maybe he doesn't want to get sick. Maybe he's in cancer treatment or had a transplant. Why do you even care?

[@talideon]

He's ill and doesn't want to spread it.

[@error.418]

get over it

[@rcmrcm3370]

He heard you were coming and he found your body odor disgusting.

[@tbird-z1r]

​@@talideonHe should use a condom then

[@ldfgbnghcfhgvjbkhn]

Thank you patient zero.

[@JavierSalcedoC]

😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

[@3rgoproxxy]

If only he could use logic to realise that his mask is doing nothing except cause more harm to himself.

[@Matey8]

His nose sounds a bit stuffed so he might be wearing it to hopefully reduce the chance of spreading to others, not protecting himself

[@error.418]

get over it

[@tbird-z1r]

​@@Matey8Those N95s block up a bit and if you're sick probably increase your risk of getting a secondary chest infection from the effect on breathing.

[@misterhat5823]

@@tbird-z1r Complete 💩

[@tbird-z1r]

@@misterhat5823 Also there's a lot of microplastics, both into the environment and the user's lungs. "It was found that over the period of 8 h of usage, all the types of commonly used masks exude microplastics in thousands of numbers." KZbin doesn't let me link to the papers, but keyword masks microplastics and you'll find quite a bit of research. Of course, let's not trust *that* science.

[@youknowwhatlol6628]

why is he in a mask

[@rcmrcm3370]

Your body odour is so rank it transcends Internet firewalls.

[@youknowwhatlol6628]

@rcmrcm3370 um....sure, whatever you like lol

[@karenrobertsdottir4101]

@@youknowwhatlol6628 Unfortunately, he's correct.

[@youknowwhatlol6628]

@@karenrobertsdottir4101 ok karen

[@AhhDubya69]

Why mask

[@Mr_Wheels74]

Because he chose to wear for whatever his reasons are that are none of your business.

[@tbird-z1r]

​@@Mr_Wheels74If you appear in a public video, then it is everyone's business. No one forced him to do this.

[@Mr_Wheels74]

@@tbird-z1r Incorrect. His reasons for masking are no ones business but his own.

[@jeffsherin9564]

His next video is about how the earth is actually flat

[@sebastianwapniarski2077]

sorry, Zorro. Unsub.

[@Kyoz]

🤍