Value Investing, Inflation and Expected Returns with Rob Arnott

In this episode, Research Affiliates founder Rob Arnott returns for his third appearance on Excess Returns. We cover a wide range of topics, including inflation, the struggles of value investing, expected future returns, avoiding value traps, AI and a lot more. Stay tuned until the end when we ask Rob what he is most worried and optimistic about when he looks to the future.
00:00 - Intro
01:57 - Inflation and non-consensus views
13:19 - Investing in a high inflation world
17:33 - The asset allocation interactive tool and investing in a low expected return environment
24:02 - Has mean reversion slowed down?
28:53 - Rob's thoughts on factor timing
31:20 - The doubled edged sword of filtering value traps
36:57 - AI and the cycle of bubbles
44:26 - How AI changes the investment management business
50:25 - AI and investment research
55:12 - What Rob is most worried and optimistic about
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[@IAmTheEggMan111]

OMG Arnott made fun of Fauci. I have a whole new respect for the man now

[@HepCatJack]

I encountered the term "email swing" in a 1931 book by Richard Wyckoff "Method of Trading and Investing in Stocks." Any idea what that term means since this is way before the computer revolution? Perhaps something referring to the telegraph ?

[@matplot6170]

It's probably an ocr mistake and should be daily swing

[@MichaeldeSousaCruz]

I’ve taken 14% in 3 months.

[@danlee6997]

Another genius who has totally underperformed the market.

[@IAmTheEggMan111]

Risk adjusted returns, I would bet that Arnott is ahead

[@brendagallagher7701]

Hey Michael, you’d have got 25% in gold in the past quarter.

[@rocking1313]

Betting on a narrative is a completely waste of time ! It's already priced in...

[@crohmer]

Ya that’s what he said

[@jamesmorris913]

I share most of Rob's optimistic closing comments, except in ONE area: the world seems to be making a disturbing turn back toward brutality and despotism, which was not as acute, only about five years ago. Totalitarian, Imperialist THUGS, like Putin and Xi Xing Peng seem to be "running the table", unchallenged. And, the horrific, recent barbaric terrorism in Israel, shows that Islamist, Iranian-funded attackers are back..more emboldened than ever. The world feels the most unstable to me, since the end of the Cold War..and I'm nearly 70, so I've nearly 70; so I've witnessed quite a lot.