Vanguard Thinks This Will Happen To The Stock Market

[@NicholasBall130]

I stopped listening and taking stock recommendations from these KZbinrs, because at the end of the day, I end up with a bunch of confusing stocks without knowing when to take profit, so you see I’m often in the red.

[@StocksWolf752]

Yes, buying is one thing and knowing when to sell is another, that’s why I do my own stock valuation.

[@StacieBMui]

I’m a contractor, and my job doesn’t permit me the time to properly analyze my holdings/evaluate stocks myself, so I’ve had a fiduciary actively restructuring my portfolio for the past 7 years now to match the present market condition and that’s how I’ve been able to stay afloat, knowing when to buy and sell…maybe you should do the same.

[@cowell621]

How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financial future and am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?.

[@StacieBMui]

Sonya Lee Mitchell is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.

[@crystalcassandra5597]

Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up immediately. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her.

[@micheal_mills]

Started my portfolio last year with SCHD, VOO, and VUG after watching one of your videos. In terms of share price, VOO is way up (22.25%) and VUG is waaaaay up (39.62%). Thanks for the education!

[@donna_martins]

Isn't VOO and VUG similar in the sense both are investing in the S&P 500? What is the difference? I thought it is generally advised against to invest in multiple ETFs or Mutual Funds?

[@Walter_hill_]

There is 55% overlap with the holdings in VOO and VUG. 1 is tech heavy and the other is financials heavy similar, but not the same. VOO tracks the S&P 500; VUG is just focused on large cap growth stocks. VUG is a bit more volatile, but with a higher upside potential. VOO is a bit safer. I’ve never heard anyone advise against multiple ETFs/mutual funds. You just have to be aware of overlap. You don't have to act on every forecast, so I'll suggest that you work with a financial advisor who can help you choose the best times to purchase and sell the shares or ETFs you want to acquire.

[@HarrietBemish]

I agree, that's the more reason I prefer my day to day investment decisions being guided by an advisor, seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not out-perform, been using my advisor for over 2years+ and I've netted over 2.8million.

[@Trevor_Morrow_LTD]

I'm sitting on some significant money ready to toss it into VOO, but I'm kinda hoping that price drops a bit. I know we only want to see the stock rise, but being heavily liquid, I'd rather not reinvent the wheel, thus the search for a reputable advisor, mind sharing info of this person guiding you please?

[@HarrietBemish]

Finding financial advisors like Vivian Jean Wilhelm who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.

[@tonysilke]

Biggest lesson i've learnt in 2024 in the stock market is that nobody knows what is going to happen next, so practice some humility and follow a strategy with a long term edge.

[@Nernst96]

Nobody knows anything; You need to create your own process, manage risk, and stick to the plan, through thick or thin, While also continuously learning from mistakes and improving.

[@PatrickLloyd-]

Uncertainty... it took me 5 years to stop trying to predict what bout to happen in market based on charts studying, cause you never know. not having an advisor guide me cost me 5 years of pain I learn to go we’re the market is wanting to go and keep it simple with discipline.

[@JefferyDuns]

I've been looking to get one, but have been kind of relaxed about it. Could you recommend your advis0r? I'll be happy to use some help.

[@PatrickLloyd-]

Sharon Ann Meny is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..

[@JefferyDuns]

I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an email shortly.

[@benjamindavidson22]

The main focus for markets now is Nvidia, which has powered a large chunk of the S&P 500’s recent earnings. Nvidia’s stock, up more than 90% this year, rose 2.5% in New York on Monday, sending the Nasdaq 100 index to another record high. I'm still looking for companies to make additions to my $350K portfolio, to boost performance. Here for ideas...

[@carolpaige2]

I think the next big thing will be A.I. For enduring growth akin to META, it's vital to avoid impulsive decisions driven by short-term fluctuations. Prioritize patience and a long-term perspective most importantly consider financial advisory for informed buying and selling decisions.

[@emiliabucks33]

A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850K

[@Johnlarry12]

This is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation

[@emiliabucks33]

Carol Vivian Constable is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.

[@Johnlarry12]

I searched for her name on the internet, found her page, and reached out via email to schedule a conversation. Thank you.

[@Olea-i2d]

i dont even know where the stock market is headed to right now. my portfolio of around 200k is not increasing more than 5% and people are predicting a crash .

[@SlowrideHome91]

i'd advise you redistribute assets in your portfolio with the help of a pro so you don't get burnt in the market

[@PapiChulo-t1s]

Accurate asset allocation is crucial, I used hedging strategies to allocate part of my portfOlio to defensive assets for market downturns. Expert guidance is vital for achieving this. This approach has helped me stay finan-cially secure for over five years, yielding nearly $1 million in returns on invest-ments.

[@DebbraMadrid]

pls how can I reach this expert, I need someone to help me manage my portfolio

[@PapiChulo-t1s]

*Jennifer Leigh Hickman* is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.

[@Porcher-w2r]

Thank you for the lead. I searched her site up and filled the form. I hope she gets back to me soon.

[@AmeliaAndersonCortez]

AI stocks are set to dominate 2024. I prefer NVIDIA because they're well-positioned for long-term growth and support other AI companies. I know someone who made over 200% with NVIDIA. I'll also consider the other recommendations you made.

[@JilldaBaby]

I agree. Just because there are opportunities doesn't mean we should dive in without caution. We should look for market analysis or guidance, or seek advice from certified market strategists.

[@SophiaTurner-im6cg]

Absolutely, having a solid plan is crucial. My portfolio has been well-balanced and recently doubled since early last year. My financial advisor and I are working towards a seven-figure goal, although this might take until Q3 2024.

[@auboisdaline]

I think could really use the expertise of an advisor like that.

[@OliviaWright-q7q]

Her name is BONITA JEANETTE RODRIGUEZ. Just look her up online

[@auboisdaline]

Thank you! I searched her name online, found her website, and filled out her form. I hope she gets back to me soon.

[@shellylofgren]

Rate cuts commenced in June 2024, taking 6-8 months to complete. A potential crash, if any, might occur by March 2025. The soft landing narrative is gaining traction, making this big recession everyone is calling for less likely. With $1 million from a business sale, I'm seeking profitable investment opportunities for the next 3 years.

[@donna_martins]

The financial market is a reliable choice. Diversify your portfolio with I-bonds, stocks (ETFs, REITs, dividend-paying stocks), and bitcoin. Given your budget, I recommend hiring a fiduciary to ensure you receive professional insights for a fee.

[@Robert_Seaman]

Due to my demanding job, I lack the time to thoroughly assess my investments and analyze individual stocks. Consequently, for the past seven years, I have enlisted the services of a fiduciary who actively manages my portfolio to adapt to the current market conditions. This strategy has allowed me to navigate the financial landscape successfully, making informed decisions on when to buy and sell. Perhaps you should consider a similar approach.

[@Trevor_Morrow_LTD]

Intresting! Please can you leave the info of your investment advisor here? I’m in dire need for one.

[@Robert_Seaman]

Vivian Jean Wilhelm is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..

[@Trevor_Morrow_LTD]

I greatly appreciate it. I'm fortunate to have come upon your message because investing greatly fascinates me. I'll look Vivian Jean Wilhelm e up and send her a message. You've truly motivated me. God's blessings on you.

[@Hannaa22]

I currently have a good amount in savings and checking accounts. I have zero debt. I have a 401K at work, but there's not much in it yet. I opened a Roth IRA last year, I have no idea what I'm doing and need help on what to do and how I can invest some of my savings or checking. Should I hire a financial advisor? I really lack basic education on how to invest and what in. I feel I need a lot of guidance. I have no idea what's good or bad advice.

[@Eljifzw]

I did for the majority of my portfolio. Aside from the fact that I don’t have the time or energy to actively manage my money, they also provide me with extras like creating a will, creating different types of accounts, handling my taxes, insurance advice and procurement, etc. For me it was worth it.

[@Hannaa22]

when you say majority of your portfolio I assume that you can compare your returns with or without an advisor, which is preferable ?

[@Eljifzw]

Yes. I have some fun money in RH but the big majority is managed by Nancy Magaret Delony. I have scaled to 1.7 in investments and find that she is indeed worth the cost to have in my corner. I think in a bear market she is good at beating the market; in a bull market she lags a bit. But that's the point, I think.

[@Eljifzw]

Look her up, Nancy Magaret Delony. She has a large following so you can easily find more details about her and her contact details.

[@Hannaa22]

Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing.

[@ChloeBensonBeautyBoxes]

I am 55, and my entire life I have been hearing the next decade won't be great. It's always fine. I have always averaged more than 10% every decade even with huge crashes. It comes way down and then goes way, way, way up.

[@DonaldMark-ne7se]

The average stock in my portfolio has been cut in half, and the only way to make money this year has been to either short or to trade long in very short time frames. I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my dipping $117k stock portfolio, what’s the best way to take advantage of this market?

[@NoorFrohock]

It’s precisely at times like these that investors need to be on guard against the next certainty. You don’t have to act on every forecast, hence i will suggest you get yourself a financial-advisor.

[@Odmark-u5f]

I agree, having a financial - advisor for investing is genius! Not long ago amidst the pandemic crash in March 2020, I was really having investing nightmare prior touching base with advisor. In a nutshell, i've accrued over $550k with the help of my advisor from an initial $120k investment thus far.

[@PitcockRoth-9876]

That's impressive!, I could really use the expertise of this advisors , my portfolio has been down bad....who’s the person guiding you.

[@Odmark-u5f]

'Carol Vivian Constable is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

[@PitcockRoth-9876]

I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an email shortly.

[@mgallegos4708]

Take away from this video: nobody can predict the future. One thing I feel sure of is this “study” will not age well.

[@dominic8218]

Absolutely spot on!

[@PB4Y2]

My question: How accurate have Vanguard's (or anyone else's) market predictions been in the past. I'll bet, not very good.

[@dantheman6607]

Maybe only time can tell but I can see this happening

[@peteturner8493]

Yes can only agree with you, would add most experts get it wrong, no such thing as a free lunch when trading and the stock market takes no prisoners!

[@bubbaburke]

Vanguard does publish its previous expectation and the eventual historical returns. They do reasonably well at predicting over extended periods. You can see these trends usually in their end of year reports and market outlook for the next year, usually published in December

[@nicolasbenson009]

I was advised to diversify my portfolio among several assets such as stocks and bonds since this can protect my inherited portfolio of about $2.5m. I’m used to just buying and holding assets which doesn’t seem applicable to the current rollercoaster market plus inflation is catching up with my portfolio. I’m really worried about survival after retirement.

[@berniceburgos-]

True, I mostly just buy and hold stocks, but my portfolio has been mostly in the red for quite awhile now. Unfortunately to be able to make good gains, you’ll need to be consistent and restructure your portfolio frequently.

[@tatianastarcic]

In my opinion, it was much easier investing back in the 60s but it’s a lot trickier now, those making consistent profit in these times are professionals reason I’ve been using an advisor for the past 5 years to consistently build my portfolio in preparations for retirement.

[@Michaelparker12]

My partner’s been considering going the same route, could you share more info please on the advisor that guides you?

[@tatianastarcic]

Well, there are a few out there who know what they are doing. I tried a few in the past years, but I’ve been with Melissa Terri Swayne for the last five years or so, and her returns have been pretty much amazing.

[@BridgetMiller-]

I greatly appreciate it. I'm fortunate to have come upon your message because investing greatly fascinates me. I'll look Melissa up and send her a message. You've truly motivated me. God's blessings on you.

[@akenhaten976]

Go back to 2014 and check what their projections were for this last decade. Those guys are constantly wrong. Zero to two percent is silly. The country has lots of room to grow and it’s going to grow at a much higher rate than that over next ten years

[@tdgdbs1]

Visit any university's engineering department, you won't see many US born and raised students. You can't grow without grey matter, so sad the US born and raised kids are partying at the liberal arts departments.

[@warumnicht8222]

@@tdgdbs1 as long as these non-US born an raised kids stay in the USA after completing their degrees, I see no problem.

[@MidlifeCrisisManagement]

time in the market and diversification trumps market performance. Vanguard is always clear about this point.

[@michaelt2974]

When was the last time vanguard made a market prediction? How is their track record.

[@brianG81]

Vanguard has been saying the same thing for 5 years. They still think bonds and international should be a big part of a portfolio. The culture at Vanguard is so conservative. The reps there say that I should be happy with a 6% gain a year. Went over to Fidelity and I am getting 20% a year

[@crosslink1493]

I've had some Vangaurd funds for years and they've done well (I do the buying/selling myself), but I know what you mean by them pushing conservative investing. If I wanted that I could just go into my local Chase bank branch that has a JP Morgan Wealth Management office and get a conservative investment portfolio (most banks with investment divisions push quite conservative investments).

[@randallschroederrandy2303]

More money has been lost reaching for yield than at the end of a gun

[@jjred233]

I am watching this video for entertainment. I not sure why people read investment advise or ask advice from a brokerage business. Its a business that pushes investments options. I don't get it. I invest in Vanguard but never look at the advice. I got over 20% return a year in Vanguard.

[@zoner__]

@@crosslink1493 And pay a lot of money for advice that makes you little money. Sounds like a winning formula.

[@bpo6955]

“They’re saying g the economy will either be better, or it will be worse” So helpful

[@Gzluweez]

Net inflation

[@vincentyeo88]

They didn't have a big crystal ball to be seen as believable. 😔🤣

[@Sofaguy101]

It’s like my advisor always says..You will certainly make money, or not.. Advisors are all the same..They are like weather forecasters..They only know for sure, yesterday’s weather..

[@Moving.To.Charleston]

Thanks Azul 📈 07:51 Vanguard predicts a 30-40% chance of negative impact on the stock market due to demographic changes, but also sees a 45-55% chance of GDP growth greater than 2.3%.

[@dominic8218]

So it might go up and it might go down. Nobody knows is the truth. 🙈

[@parasitius]

I think you're totally overlooking the value in this by trying to cheaply/lazily summarize the "future". Imagine you look at these factors carefully and observe in the coming months and years that ONE of the scenarios is, to the best of your judgement, actually beginning to play out..... hence you can invest accordingly.

[@dominic8218]

@@parasitius you obviously still believe in Santa. 🎅🏼. 🤞🏼

[@pascalschmid4555]

Its interesting to compare what they said 10 years ago and compare - they where pessimistic too - and we had a huge growth on average over the last decade

[@patienceisalpha]

Nice background and lighting. Videos becoming more and more professional 🎉

[@Omikoshi78]

This the Azul after dark theme 😂

[@pengmagno7395]

One of the most dangerous thinking or saying in financial history is “This time is different!” Vanguard when Jack Bogle was in charge ascribed to the opposite thinking, “Stay the course!” Today’s Vanguard has charted a different course.

[@Moving.To.Charleston]

Interesting, I feel like we don't really have another choice but to "stay the course"...

[@kevinderrick8895]

​@@Moving.To.Charleston- you do have another choice. Protect yourself from the most bubbled up market since 1929. You can still get 5% in short t bills and money market funds. The market today is like a casino. You might make 10x your money or you might lose it.

[@Moving.To.Charleston]

@@kevinderrick8895 Hey Kevin, yes the 5% accounts are decent but it doesn't increase the value of my assets and still looses it's purchasing power. For example, investing in Google even in this inflated price, it will eventually increase more than the inflation rate. It is still better a performance of 5% return that is currently offered in high yield savings acct/t-bills/etc.

[@don951]

@@kevinderrick8895 You don't lose it unless you sell. The stock market ALWAYS goes up over time.

[@tombkk1322]

@@kevinderrick8895How long can we get 5% in these things?

[@michaelt2974]

Vanguard gets to pretend they are bringing some logic and reasoning to their position. People actually get paid for that? Nobody can predict the future. How many times have we heard over the years that future returns were pulled forward and so future returns would be low. It’s laughable

[@darrenhere5856]

so true.... "experts"... what would we do without them....

[@Dave-sw2dm]

Could they be trying to persuade investors into the areas they are in which would help their portfolios?

[@Yt-user65000]

They’re not fortune tellers bro, they’re economists. Projections about financial conditions are not black magic dude. Maybe try to understand the reasons for the outlook & use it with your other market insights to make reasonable returns.

[@michaelt2974]

Agree. But it’s just that nobody is ever held accountable for bad calls years later. It just seems like a younger person with a decade or more to go before retirement would be better off just investing as much as possible in SPY and QQQ and tune out market noise. Otherwise you could get bogged down by all the “market analysis” possibly leading to too much trading or other mistakes

[@jerrkyd]

After the 2008 financial collapse Mohamed A. El-Erian, Nouriel Roubini and Vanguard all said that returns over the next ten years would be in the 3% range. I listened to all of them and pulled all my money out of the stock market and the market returns for the next decade plus were insane and I lost out on those returns. Nobody can predict the future.

[@kahvac]

The change of backgrounds is a good professional look !

[@pataleno]

Genuinely don’t care if the market fell 50% tomorrow. I’m in for the long and I’d just buy more. Markets fall and come back. Just stay the course.

[@TB7-X]

Thank you for breaking down the Vanguard study for us. I invest with Schwab intelligent portfolios so I’m hoping they read the report too.

[@Wazup4177]

Fewer workers paying into social security. Definitely not a good thing.

[@DMUSA536]

Not to mention past Presidents “borrowing” from it

[@Hi-jx5oe]

Paying into social security optional?

[@vodekz1534]

Money printing will not stop. This will affect dollar value and inflation. The next 10 years might be rough. Either Democrats or Republicans. A weaker dollar = a better stock market and a better economy.

[@don951]

They have stopped the printing press, and nobody seemed to like it. The Fed has been tightening liquidity for awhile, yet everyone still complains. People will just always complain. And, rarely know enough to make an informed opinion.

[@Kimmer]

To clarify, Vanguard is forecasting that returns in the relative near future will be less than historical returns due to the market out performing the past decade. By definition, this is reversion to the mean and is simply a forecast. Right or wrong, I believe it's useful to guide or at least inform current investment decisions.

[@Aarrenrhonda3]

The stock market is a way to hedge against inflation. Most notably amidst recession, investors need to understand where and how to allocate funds to hedge against inflation and still make profits.

[@Rachadrian]

in my opinion, the impact of the rise or fall of the U.S. dollar on investments is multi-faceted but learning how to grow your money has never been easier than now that you can explore and experience a truly diverse marketplace passively by using a well-performing portfolio-advisor.

[@Dantursi1]

I agree Such considerations can certainly have a role when I think about whether I ought to buy into a share. But I never purchase purely on that basis, i always have to seek the advice of my financial planner who has helped me gain $985k in a well-diversified portfolio that has experienced exponential growth

[@johnschnorr6182]

Great video Azul. I love your experience and perspective on opinions coming for international companies like Vanguard. I think you are spot on.

[@pubmeatman]

Nobody knows nothing. Know your risk tolerance. Set your asset allocation. Rebalance.

[@carmelizedonions]

do you have a link to share for the vanguard forecast that you're basing this off of?

[@frankt1720]

Thanks, does Vanguard consider this return includes the dividend in the S&P?

[@kannermw]

This is an outdated Vanguard report from March. New one was released in May. Their estimated inflation range at 1.5-2.5% is too low. I disagree with the emerging market estimate as it is not aligned with exchange rate impacts. Look at study from strong dollar impact.

[@MDog_FPV]

@7:50 "Either gonna do better or its gonna do worse" WOW! This is some great insight here!

[@jamescares9003]

this same report in 2014 said the same thing about the next 10 years at that time. Take it for what it's worth

[@EdgarVerona]

I feel like I have heard Vanguard say this for several years in a row now. Is this a "even a broken clock is right twice a day" situation?

[@jonscrivner9087]

Why would the number economy in the world underperform the rest of the world. Vanguard has been talking down the performance of domestic stocks and talking up international stocks for at least twenty years.

[@tombkk1322]

Exactly

[@titolovely8237]

Fewer workers mean wages will have to go up in many sectors, which will drive profits down and negatively effect stock returns. That’s my prediction. I think smaller companies will do better in this period as being nimble will be a larger advantage than it used to be. I also think that companies will start to trim fat off in managerial positions. We’ve seen the tech companies start and I think it’s the start of a longer term trend where higher interest rates mean companies have to be leaner and many redundant and non productive positions will be phased out. This might be enough to keep returns within historical trends.

[@D-Rex-]

I miss the "Walk and Talk" videos. Still great content, but something about being outside made them less rigid feeling. Maybe a combination of venues? Thanks for your work!

[@jonpondi1206]

I feel these next four years we will see positive growth in US stocks

[@ktech2762]

More immigrants are eager to come in and try the American dream. Have no fear.

[@zoner__]

So they expect returns to be same as a CD? I don't think so...

[@ktech2762]

Fear, uncertainty and doubt - ain't nothing changed

[@annemoore4461]

I plan to retire at 62 in another country outside the US that is free, safe and very cheap with a high quality of life. I could fully just rely on only my SS if I wanted to when that times arrives but I'll also have at least one pension, a 403 (b) and a very prolific lnvestment account with my Abby Joseph Cohen my FA. Retiring comfortably in the US these days is almost impossible. I honestly don't understand why people don't move to another country when they get older in retirement. It seems everybody has excuses for almost anything to not take action to better their situation.

[@ohmakure4716]

How do i reach her, if you don't mind me asking?

[@emmabeyza6036]

Been debt free for two years thanks to Abby Joseph Cohen Services. So sad to see my friends in their 40s with car loans, mortgages and credit card debt.

[@aydin6219]

Abby Joseph Cohen Services has really set the standard for others to follow, we love her here in Canada 🇨🇦 as she has been really helpful and changed lots of life's

[@jtixtlan]

Why would Vanguard announce this doom and gloom prediction?! Are they trying to make this happen?

[@cfdys]

Thank you, Azul. You should also include the historical margin of error for all past predictions by Vanguard on the overall market outlook and use this to determine how likely Vanguard may be in being wrong. I understand that historical performance is no indication of future performance, butt some of us take brokerage assessments of this type with more than just a grain of salt, we should also know how wrong they have been in the past with their future predictions. Bless you and keep up the great work!

[@tombkk1322]

So true.

[@mr3745]

I think they're undervaluing other technical breakthroughs which will likely come in addition to AI, in the areas of computing, energy, medicine, materials, space.

[@Jenomonix]

Great backdrop Azul and good information as always… now let’s take a walk!

[@97dundalk]

does that include apple, amazon and alphabet

[@glockman99]

Are these the same experts that missed the growth stocks in the last 10 years and advised holding 20-50% in bonds?

[@tombkk1322]

Very good point. Are they being held accountable for their bad forecasting 10 years ago? It seems they only put out negative information. Maybe this is a way to cover their asses if they’re wrong.

[@seekertruth72]

Most important look for companies funamentally sound, good management and offering product or services which has good demand very high level but you will never go wrong in investment. Even they get corrected bounce back fast

[@jbolt86]

Reversion to the mean. Of course the next decade can’t be like this last decade but a slow next decade will set up for another great decade in the future.

[@frawdulent]

He’s preaching to an older audience who won’t be around in 20 years.

[@oceansunsetak]

I am guilty of listening to Market predictors. "Stay the course". Jack Bogel's recommendation. I would be rich if I listened to Jack. Some past predictions 2023: the recession is imminent, the semiconductor industry has a large inventory High interest rates are going to destroy the economy big Tech has no room to run. Realistically anything can happen

[@RobbsHomemadeLife]

I have been expecting the economy to fall off the Cliff since 2011 every single year. Eventually, I'm going to be right. I think the only thing that makes sense is to diversify. Nobody really knows what's going to happen.

[@winduncan9818]

The way I see it stocks are being sold at high PE's based on future earnings. So you have already seen a lot of the profits. If the market tanks and you can start buying at fair PE's then returns would be closer to historic levels. But paying top dollar today based on future earnings then ya, your buying high and that's eating into future returns. As far as REITS, IMO sure REATS as a whole will feel pressure (malls,SFR,etc) but will something like O (Reality Income) be limited to 5-6% if you picked it up in the last year at a 25% discounted price at a fair FFO? Anyway, I'm not a financial guy but IMO it really comes down to what were you able to buy at.

[@michaelyoung2188]

What did they say in their report 10 years ago?

[@eskoven]

Not sure about the profits from AI being passed onto to the workers. The trickle down economic theory didn't work out in the 80s. The corporations just got wealthier and kept the profits to themselves. I doubt it will be any different in the future.

[@newhampshirelifestyle4233]

As an Engineer with 30+ year experience in Software and Systems, I can tell you that this same prediction was made decades ago with the personal computer and then the Internet. All this wonderful productivity would bolster business and leave humankind with much more leisure time. Well, what happened since the 1980's? There were some noted productivity gains, but the future did not quite evolve as the "experts" of the time predicted. There is much more to expect from technology than "productivity". Safety, security, accuracy, and new applications are paramount to productivity.

[@MNNMism]

Investment managers, broker strategists whoever they are, have never ever reviewed or assessed what they said even a year ago.

[@fishmojo865]

I sold all my NVDA stocks about 4 months ago thinking it topped out and wanted to lower my risk level. Cost me about $300k in gains. I’m ok with my decision. It treated me well. Put a good portion in Fidelity Contra and still getting nice gains. I got away from dealing with Vanguard.

[@randoroo2540]

vanguard has been saying this same thing for a while now, that the next decade of equity returns will be lower and that international equities will outperform. Still waiting for them to be right.... A broken clock is right twice a day I figure, so it's bound to happen eventually. I will say, I don't think vanguard has totally taken into account the impact that diminished equity returns would have on tax receipts and how, as a result, the government won't allow equity values to fall. Any fall in equities will be met with a swift fiscal and monetary policy response, at the expense of the lower and middle classes that rely on the value of the currency. Just my 2 cents, time will tell...

[@Martin-og9zg]

How will this affect the metals market?

[@robfordham781]

I mean go back and look at these annual Vanguard reports from the past. Have they ever been right?

[@johnadair6108]

Vanguard can kiss my assertion! Vanguard in and of itself has a certain gravitational pull on the market...must be nice! If Vanguard had a track record of nailing these predictions they would be the only game in town...they aren't.

[@randallschroederrandy2303]

One quarter there was 100 billion invested in mutual funds 80% went to Vanguard

[@BurtGordon-o2u]

Azul… didn’t they pretty much say the exact same thing in 2014 or so?

[@67NewEngland]

- “People can get more done with AI” - I think this could be the case at first. Much like machinery and automation increased production by factories, requiring more factory workers, but then machinery advanced to the point of not needing many workers to run them. -If the market goes this way it will have a negative effect on the health of municipal pension systems. Sure makes long term treasuries look attractive.

[@rorymacintosh6691]

Get more of what done with AI? That’s really the question. The chances that it will be used to increase the wealth of the rich and imposter the poor are very high. Like any technology it could be a force for good or for bad.

[@jjred233]

I am using AI at work for over 8 years. It was when the last time AI made major news that my company decide to go all in AI. The work increase. AI makes errors. The whole idea that AI will automate everything and reduce errors is not true. I spend the majority of my time correcting errors and doing other basic tasks the AI cannot automate.

[@miken7629]

Boomers hit peak 65 early in 2024 and are retiring en masse, we own half the wealth in this country, $68 trillion and rising, as we retire many will be selling stock investments to cover expenses + rising expenses, this is going to get tricky when net selling forces stock markets to drop which in turn forces selling of more shares to cover expenses, instead of stocks going exponentially up stocks may start going exponentially down. I have very little in stocks, mostly in bonds, cd's, closed end preferred funds, money market. If interest rates go up I will buy more bonds otherwise I will let my bonds mature over net 15 years.

[@mkeller8114]

You will lose money to inflation with that strategy. At least 60-70% must be stocks no matter the age.

[@miken7629]

@@mkeller8114 Won't buy stocks because I am old fashion and believe PE more than 15 is overpriced, just can't do it. I do buy some dividend stocks during a pull back. My plan to deal with expenses doubling every 12 years is to live on 50% income and reinvest 50% income.

[@yellowbloodsilverfox]

Azul thanks for all of your videos sir; greatly appreciate your efforts in educating the public with the topic of money and investing. Personally, I am more of an energy and commodities type of investor (sectors that I follow closely), especially the precious metals which have had a huge run these last few years and are poised to continue their run based on my research and understanding. Are you able to do a video on the topic? Agree with me or not I am super curious on your opinion as I sincerely feel you are trying to help peopl le and 0:43 that topic could benefit many. Thanks Azul and maybe I will get to you in 5 years when the wife and I are 62 to prep to step off the hamster wheel 🎉 at 62 and 1 day 😉. Thanks again.

[@jaykraft9523]

might as well get past the next recession and reset on this kind of analysis then, because market is likely to be down 50% or more in the next recession. then we can look at valuations

[@stevenbernstein2328]

Was Vanguard correct in its forecast from 2014?

[@oysterpt2018]

If US growth is tech, anise AI is tech, and AI is suppose to be the growth factor in the next 10 years, how is it only going to produce the least returns out of all of them?

[@BradPaisley56]

I believe investors should focus on under-the-radar stocks, especially given the present rollercoaster nature of the stock market. 35% of my $270,000 portfolio consists of collapsing stocks that were previously respected, and I don't know where to go from here.

[@anonymouscaline]

Whatever. There are 3 paths going forward 1) Increased inflation, 2) Revaluation of all asset classes 3) A combination of 1 and 2

[@rkayakr]

link to report?

[@cbdc4ai]

the US-economy is a consumer-driven economy. Question: where is the money for this consume coming from? helicopter money? housing bubble? give credit witout liabilities - and sell these to ... to whom, btw? Japan? Germany? China? - they are all going under. ... maybe one start thinking about the "why" - to then come to the conclusion. // ps: and besides the e/a ratio: who shall buy the stocks to make them rise in the next 10 years? the pensioners who were workers & doers in the "good times" will sell them for financing their living - and who shall buy these then?

[@theghostoftoby1779]

I am worried about declining birth rates affecting returns. The population increased by only .4% last year due to immigration but US born people are not having kids. Not sure how to invest in this kind of environment. AI told me to invest in cds and dividend stocks. Any advice would be appreciated.

[@joshuasethd]

In October 2023, on CNBC, Vanguard heads said 2024 would be "below average"

[@haldriver1378]

Nice job Azul. Like the digs too.

[@TabakovRadoustine]

Thanks for the continuous update! I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my whole life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, all thank you Susan Marie Alessio.😊

[@JonBosworth-dc8no]

Same here all thanks to Miss Susan Marie Alessio, she has always been there to guide me through with detailed analysis and recommendations that I wouldn't have access to otherwise.

[@WoolhouseCardish-cq7hc]

As a beginner what do I need to do? How can I invest on which platform? If you know any please share.

[@Rachelwilliams.]

Susan Marie Alessio is considered a key Crypto Strategist with one of the best copy Trading Portfolios and also very active in the cryptocurrency space.

[@PaulBuriak]

Wow I'm shocked you mentioned expert Mrs Susan Marie Alessio, when someone is straight forward and good at what she does best. People will always speak for them.

[@frankalex7485]

I have heard about her excellent trading expertise in CNBC news, guess she's more popular in United States.

[@davehal4503]

Old geezer here. Now in my 6th decade of investing. This MAY be true! But, there is a long history of predictions and forecasts being wrong.

[@Neomet010]

While I rather enjoy your optimism about a "good" outcome for AI I have to say that what is being sold is that it will result in more productivity from the same number of workers, the reality that I am seeing is a large number of positions being eliminated to accomplish the same amount of work. The costs of employees is the second largest for an employer and reducing costs is the current corporate guiding light. It may well result in better company profits, but I fear it remains a distinct threat to many individual workers.

[@kf589]

Maybe just want more people into higher cost funds since s&p and total us have gotten so cheap to own.

[@robb8773]

Oh I didn't know Vanguard had a crystal ball, lol!

[@ronaldmcdonald3965]

2008 after GFC it was predicted that avg. returns would be lower also. With that said, I am in the bear camp in the medium terms Long term I dunno

[@chip2373]

Warren Buffett says the US is the best place in the world to invest. I believe him before anything Vanguard has to say. Since Jack Bogle died Vanguard has lots its way. They dumped low cost index funds, pushed ESG scores, pushed DEI, sank the clipper ship, and added fees fees fees. Major employers moved their employee retirement plans out of Vanguard. I all but left Vanguard.

[@jtixtlan]

So, how do those of us near retirement with all of our assets in traditional IRAs keep our retirement assets safe?

[@don951]

Tune out the noise and stick to your plan.

[@TheFirstRealChewy]

Just continue to save and invest. The good news is that you won't have to wait 10 years to see of your investments are moving in the direction you'd like.

[@richnick1911]

Spend your money wisely and enjoy life. Time keeps on ticking ticking into the future!

[@shayscott7498]

Yup, I want to fly like an eagle!

[@tombkk1322]

Good point!

[@Sky1]

3%? I think I did 10% just in the month of june

[@richardcarlin1332]

In summary. No one knows. As Warren Buffett says - "Don't bet against the US economy". On population and worker decline. This isn't true. Immigrants are making up the difference, causing a population increase. All of this confirms the need to diversify and make sure you have income streams that don't require selling the principle of stock investments.

[@EarthSurfer]

The USA was built by immigrants, and they remain vital to our future growth and success. Birthrates for the USA are below what is needed to sustain our population, and immigration is necessary to fill the jobs and pay my future Social Security 😆. (This is to just expound on @richardcarlin1332 statement.)

[@hanwagu9967]

Azul sounds like he's in a bunker. Vanguard's low growth projection isn't shocking considering Vanguard and Blackrock heavily support growth crushing DEI over MEI. High developed market growth than the US doesn't make any sense, given the reliance on US for that growth. Prime example: the USA is Germany's largest trade partner now.

[@motumaniac4217]

I think this video is 'noise'. There is nothing actionable or useful about it. Unfortunately it just creates fear, uncertainty, and doubt.

[@tombkk1322]

7 Trillion dollars of assets under management. I always wonder why these predictions are always so conservative.

[@TizetaWodajo]

I agree with the report and your analysis. Thats why I put my money in a high yield savings account and retired at 55.

[@puravida5683]

All this is theory! I have been with Vanguard for two decades. The Stock Market is nothing more than a casino for gamblers. Since the Stock Market is a derivative of the Debt Market, watch what the Debt Market, the Dollar and oil does!

[@kirk8429]

Their predictions are quite different from just Q1. AI's impact on the markets is just too uncertain to predict so it's safer to drop expectations.

[@two-wheels7397]

Historically, if US funds are not doing well, the rest of the world is not either. Are they saying this is going to change, then why?

[@christschool]

10 year outlook is not worth much in my opinion.