VLAD SOUNDS OUT: UK general election called

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[@rick-potts]

I'm surprised there's only 15% Brits on here - I thought there would be more of us! As a matter of interest - what is the demo breakdown on the chat channel?

[@rjScubaSki]

“Not ready for government” is I think the wrong read of the public attitude. Everyone thinks the Labour Party are saying the absolute minimum they can and are utterly terrified at even the prospect of pathetic Tory press attacks on fiscal matters. As such, they are making an incredibly paltry set of promises, and the public fully expects none of them to be fulfilled.

[@niallodonnell7827]

They certainly need as much latitude as possible during their poisoned chalice term in office

[@bernadmanny]

The fact that Labour still has such a lack of confidence tells the public that they may not be ready.

[@urbanimage]

@@bernadmanny I worked for the Labour Party during the 18 months run up to the election in 1997. It has always been difficult for Labour to win a majority at a general election. Right up to the end, a lot of people in Labour lacked confidence back in 1997. That changed pretty quickly, though.

[@Rain-xe5vr]

You guys need a Gert Wilders or a Donald Trump before you guys become the UC - United Caliphate.

[@CuriousCrow-mp4cx]

And you need a dose of Ex-lax. Too little dietary fibre will allow bad cholesterol to build up in your bloodstream and occlude your arteries, especially the ones in your brain. Delusion is the result, especially when you don't know what you are talking about.

[@jessicarowley9631]

Thanks, Vlad. It was nice to see you looking so well. I have been politically marooned for a while. As a centre left supporter of the welfare state here in the UK, its partial privatisation and break up over the last 30 to 35 years has left me as I am today. Currently, there isn't a party that will be standing a candidate in my constituency that I will be able to really support. No party is offering a prospect that actually attracts me to vote for them. I will use my vote, but without an expectation that it will improve my life or that of my neighbours very much.

[@VladVexlerChat]

Thank you for sharing Jessica. I am in one of the safest Labour seats in the country so I have a free vote.

[@Rain-xe5vr]

You need a UK Donald Trump before you guys become the UC - United Caliphate.

[@CuriousCrow-mp4cx]

Remember, more fibre before you get a stroke.

[@alexbuckenham1663]

@@Rain-xe5vr We really don't need a Trump, nobody needs a Trump. We had Boris, we don't need Farage.

[@rjScubaSki]

@@VladVexlerChat similar where I am in poplar and Limehouse

[@More_Row]

With leaders like this, who needs enemies

[@8Oblivion_Lost8]

Exactly. And it's not just the UK. It's a problem throughout the west. And it's getting worse year by year. This is literally how authoritarians come to power.

[@Rain-xe5vr]

Quite exactly.

[@jalasieye]

Would love to hear you talk more about UK politics Vlad!

[@VladVexlerChat]

With the GE in process, I will be talking about U.K. politics more!!

[@jakestephenson3115]

grass roots UK here, there are three things that labour could do that would keep them in parliament for more than one term they are, one repair the potholes in the roads, two get people access to a dentists in a timely manner, and three easy access to a doctors with prompt attention, these things would greatly get the public on side what ever else they do

[@DJWESG1]

No point being 'healthier' if ppl are just going to be forced into work.

[@paulbiologist]

The problem is training dentists and doctors takes many many years... But yes fixing the potholes could probably be sorted....

[@dawnmoriarty9347]

Fix the social care system or give people hope that it can be improved

[@SimDeck]

Agree. This is the stuff we are taliking about at work. One or two of these always comes up.

[@SimDeck]

@@DJWESG1 Forced into work? What's wrong with work? Am I missing something here?

[@_amalfitano]

good to see you today 🌼

[@GafferBob]

Thank you for helping to educate your American audience as to the mysteries of the UK political sphere. Political parties that have platforms and policy debates are so inconceivable here. It's more about vibes and huge amounts of money. Take care ♥🌻

[@rhino5100]

I'm American, and I agree with you to a point. It's about vibes and money and tribalism now. But I'm old enough to remember platforms and debates here in the US. That used to be our normal. Then our Supreme Court gave us the "Citizens United" decision. That was the beginning of the end. I watched the "Barbie" movie last summer with my daughter, niece, and sister-in-law. The very first scene of the movie is the Barbie Supreme Court giving a ruling that is the opposite of "Citizens United". There is so little understanding of how we got here that only lawyers and political journalists probably understood what that scene meant. We are in Bizarro World now. The UK still has a chance.

[@GafferBob]

@@rhino5100 Nicely put.I agree 100%.Loved Barbie on so many levels.

[@grandlotus1]

You see deeply and true. What an enlightenment! What a blessing!

[@Rain-xe5vr]

Oh dear. Famous last words...

[@Sindrijo]

I need your reaction to Solivyov failing for the Jewish "Eli Copter" Mossad agent being involved in the helicopter crash of the Iranian president...

[@guydreamr]

This nefarious plot having been assisted, no doubt, by Bigfoot's love child.

[@Rain-xe5vr]

Since when did the Israelis need to be subtle?

[@piccalillipit9211]

@@Rain-xe5vr THIS IS the single best argument against a ! 5 R 4 3 L ! involvement

[@alexbuckenham1663]

No way he fell for that, that's gold hahaha. When you spew propaganda lies all day I suppose it's difficult to see satire.

[@Infopirates]

Soloviev is jew himselth🙂

[@Iranite]

2:17 what you just said (in relation to "opaque space they can't make sense of") sounds like the same thing that's happened in Germany during the past decade or two, eroding the trust in politics and anything state made, thus providing breeding grounds for conspiracy theorists and populism. (I do not speak from a position of authority, I'm just a random observer trying to understand the world around him.)

[@CLaw-tb5gg]

What will be fascinating to see is how Labour behave in office, given - if we're honest - their recent behavior has been so rigidly, pathologically sculpted around an idea of electability that doesn't necessarily represent the views of that many MPs on the backbenches (although to be quite blunt I don't think their all but guaranteed victory has much to do with anything except being not the Tories; you could probably replace Starmer with a cabbage on top of a suit and he'd end up PM at this point).

[@isaacdalziel5772]

I wonder if Corbyn would manage it? Somehow I doubt it.

[@Rain-xe5vr]

If you are expecting to be saved, I feel sorry for you. You need something more, something new. You need a populist leader to drain your swamp. The old dichotomy of Tory/Labor isn't going to be enough to push back the EVIL in your nation. I hope I am spectacularly wrong but I don't see how yet more LIBERAL politics is gonna save you....

[@CLaw-tb5gg]

@@isaacdalziel5772 I was fond of Corbyn, but I’m probably really not the average British voter, and it’s hard to say. I did feel that the popular perception of him was quite out of line with him as an actual politician (as Britain is generally quite suspicious of leftism and to the right of continental Europe we do have a bad habit in this country of mentally relocating anyone vaguely left of centre to somewhere left of Lenin; on the continent, Corbyn probably wouldn’t be seen as especially remarkable), and the 2019 GE felt as if it wasn’t necessarily about party politics as much as Brexit, and keeping Corbyn from power and keeping Boris in was seen as important to keep the Brexit wheels turning. Despite, ironically, Corbyn historically not being that pro-EU.

[@technologic21]

My first thought after hearing the news here in the US, after a long sigh was: "When it rains, it pours." 2024: the year that democracy around the world will face a major test. Let's do our best (in whatever respective country we reside in) to ensure that freedom reigns supreme, that the authoritarian movement is dealt a blow, and setback in its backwards ways.

[@diane9247]

You've read my mind!

[@JBroMCMXCI]

Progressive policies are responsible for wrecking the global economy.

[@dawnmoriarty9347]

Many people in the UK have been pleading for a general election asap for at least two years now

[@pietpiekstra-sl1vr]

well said

[@rjScubaSki]

Predeclaring that electoral reform won’t fix anything without knowing what form it would take seems somewhat defeatist

[@VladVexlerChat]

I am painting the default trajectory which the U.K. should pain to avoid!!!!!

[@rjScubaSki]

@@VladVexlerChat As far as I can tell, electoral reform and media ownership reform are the only mechanisms available that have any chance of reconfiguring our broken party system. I don’t think by itself it is a panacea, but it seems like another roll of the dice… I agree that watering down any possible reform so it doesn’t break the parties is likely unless the dominant party recognises that it is already somewhat doomed

[@lunarman9363]

I'm no great fan of Keir Starmer, but I'm not sure I agree with your assertion that the uncertainty about how to think about the New Labour constitutes an identity crisis. I have mixed feelings about it myself; they started well, and ended poorly; poverty declined, butTony Blair's statement that "I don't care if the rich get richer, so long as the poor less poor" was naive at best; Public services improved, but PPP didn't work in the long term; (for example)... I think that for a political party trying to get elected, you have to focus on today and on the future. Being defined by what your predecessors did is not a vote winner, so even if it is a point of contention, you can't show it.

[@GadZookz]

Vlad V for PM!👍🏻

[@VladVexlerChat]

Please NO!!!!!!!!! hee hee I am not a politician!

[@LacRagem]

​@VladVexlerChat a Vlad fireside chat sounds nice, though. You could calm the world down.

[@DrumToTheBassWoop]

@@VladVexlerChat that's what true leaders always say.

[@MkVenner1975]

Labour are focussed on winning an elected in a system, first past the post (FPTP), that favours the Conservatives. The Conservatives have won election after election in this system, they also have the print media that is overwhelmingly Conservative and the Conservatives have inserted their ‘people’ in key positions in key organisations throughout the country (Gibb at the BBC for example). It is remarkable what Starmer has done to get Labour into the position that they are likely to win the election. FPTP means that Labour must attract the vote of a couple of hundred thousand voters in key marginal constituencies, which means that their messaging is aimed at convincing these specific voters. The Labour Party is very much ready for power. They can be “articulate” about the Party’s ambitions, but this wouldn’t address the issues that the voters in marginal constituencies, that they need to attract in order to win the election, want to hear. Labour need to focus on winning the election, and it is imperative that they change the voting system to a form of proportional representation. Then UK political parties can be more forthright about their policies which will be focussed on the issues that the majority want to hear, rather than just voters in marginal constiuencies.

[@phueal]

Not just that he's managed to do it under FPTP, but that he's managed to do it in the next election after Labour's biggest ever defeat. In 2019 people were anticipating it taking well over a decade to undo that Tory landslide.

[@user-yf6nd4sn3k]

I have a feeling Labour might find itself suffering from the "I like only 9/10 things you are doing and so will refuse to work with you" thing quite a bit in the early days of Government. With quite rigid people "engaged in hyper identity politics" (as Vlad would put it), who have got involved with the party during a long spell in opposition getting upset that their issues are not receiving the treatment they were expecting, pulling things apart to some degree. Can see the Tories and others really going up a gear with the inflammatory culture war type stuff to exploit it too, with bad effects on the health of discourse and the relations people have with institutions and each other. Also, Vlad! Would love to hear your take on what's been going on with the SNP and Scottish Greens in recent years, in terms of how it relates to your usual areas of concern.

[@LynxChan]

As a newly minted British citizen, able to vote for the first time, I know two things: - The Tories MUST be defeated. - The ONLY thing I know Keir Starmer believes to the core of his being, is that he wants to be PM. I'm thankful I live in Scotland where I have more options, but my heart goes out to voters in non-safe seats in England.

[@isaacdalziel5772]

Do we really feel like they're not ready for government? If it was me, that would be the last thing to criticise them for. I agree with everything else, but I would say that maybe they are even TOO ready for government!

[@rjScubaSki]

It’s a misapplication of an already nearly meaningless phrase. No one has any real enthusiasm for Labour because they are terrified of making any promises which can be utilised in gutter press attacks on fiscal implications. The electoral logic means there is no advantage to them currently in taking any real positions on anything whilst the Tories are losing by default.

[@Norcha8]

are you on drugs or just stupid?

[@RealUlrichLeland]

What makes you unconvinced that electoral reform would help the UKs crisis of political trust? I feel like a major cause of people's apathy towards politics is that the first past the post system necessitates that parties lack conviction, because to have any chance of success they have to appeal to the broadest voter base possible.

[@JohnDoe-gc1pm]

I think this is the best aspect of FPTP - its the ideological purists who ruin parties' prospects for victory, Liz Truss for the Right Wing, and Jeremy Corbyn for the left wing. Both were ideologues, and both shredded their parties chances

[@philjameson292]

I would argue the opposite. FFP produces a winner with a clear majority which can implement it's policies Other voting systems have more chance of producing collation governments that have to horse trade, or we get a minority party that holds the system to ransom

[@faelirra]

@@philjameson292 under no system should a party get 30-35% of the vote and become a majority government (this has happened) which in turn in effect gives them 100% control over parliament. Or even worse, no candidate should get fewer than 25% of the vote and become the MP (happened in Belfast south 2015 election SDLP candidate received 24.5% of the vote and won)

[@pgpython]

​@@philjameson292 the problem with fpp in my honest opinion is that it tends to lead to two party with extreme policies that nobody really supports. Can anyone really in all honesty say that they support the conservatives or Labour. The conservatives say is that it would be worse under Labour but that's not a ringing endorsement for anyone to support them. The reality is that I think most people are political moderates but that is a viewpoint that doesn't reflect in government and having a more diverse parliament representing people views would strongly reflect that better

[@carelgoodheir692]

@@philjameson292 Horse trades between parties which between them represent a majoity of the voters are better than being ruled by a faction within a party that got a lot less than 50% of the vote - with a large fraction of that minority having only voted for it because it was the less bad of a choice of two.

[@JBroMCMXCI]

Sushi has been working for the people all along undermining the Tories, now he’s trying to inflict maximum damage on his way out. He’s a hero.

[@zeitgeist5134]

Hm! What an intriguing take. Alas, with your very brief statement, you have not elucidated the concrete facts upon which you base this assertion. When you are making a not obvious point (not obvious to the rest of us), it behooves you to fill in the blanks!! Don't be so darn laconic. ;-)

[@billking8843]

It is the only rational explanation for his actions.

[@zeitgeist5134]

​@@billking8843 My friend, you are being laconic again! Note well that I am not challenging your assertion. It may very well be the only rational explanation for his actions. Your laconic replies, however, do not provide enough (well, any) analysis to support your assertion. And that's okay. Ciao!

[@informedchoice2249]

About time.

[@edmundfreeman7203]

In politics, you can spend 20 years building a career and wreck it in 20 minutes. It seems like politicians are the most risk-adverse people I know of. This is from a US perspective but it seems pretty universal.

[@Infopirates]

Oh, I have so much fun these days😁😁😁😁

[@rgeo2024]

Wise words as usual Vlad. Hope you are feeling well.

[@annemcleod8505]

So useful, Vlad. Thanks as always.

[@djparn007]

Thank you, Vlad. 👍

[@jewittm]

Good stuff vlad

[@danielmadar9938]

Thanks

[@terryhand]

Thanks Vlad, you have perfectly summed up how I feel about the July 4th election.

[@marcussassan]

thank you Vlad

[@gwishnev]

Love.

[@neilclay5835]

Good to see you this evening Vlad. Lots of love to you as well.

[@VladVexlerChat]

Good to see you Neil!

[@schofield4836]

Thankyou Vlad for explaining so eloquently why we don’t feel safe but doomed

[@predabot__6778]

ALGO! Curious that they called an election indeed.

[@RightSideNews]

Great analysis vlad. I think you’re spot on.

[@SamAronow]

Kudos to Sunak at least for going against the naysayers in the party who thought that waiting just a little bit longer would get them out of the decade-deep hole they've dug themselves into.

[@McChes]

I’m surprised that there’s so few British among us.

[@stevenjohns-savage7024]

Morning buddy 😊

[@VladVexlerChat]

Morning!

[@Babayaga97111]

❤🇬🇧

[@jimschofield8734]

Before talking about "Why people should trust [politicians]", politicians need to talk about and acknowledge as truthful and legitimate the many reasons why their citizens do not trust them... In particular, the many issues of the past five years that have rapidly eroded what little trust people had left in politicians, and began massively eroding people's trust in previously respected institutions. I do not want to hear, and will actively heckle and if possible throw things at, politicians who simply try to tell me why I should now for some reason decide to trust them just because "trust me bro".

[@carelgoodheir692]

Voters make contradictory demands from candidates. Only those politicians that can finesse these demands can get elected. Then the voters call the winners (who won because they promised contradictory things) dishonest. But it starts with voters being less than honest with themselves.

[@phueal]

In fairness Starmer especially seems to be as clean as can be. Don't you think he appears trustworthy?

[@casperwinslow2896]

@@phueal No, he's ditched every pledge he made to be elected as labour leader. He also went from demanding a second referendum on Brexit in the 2019 election, to supporting a hard-right Brexit when it became convenient. He's actively authoritarian and flip-flops on every major issue. His only basic instinct is to suck up to Tory voters and avoid the wrath of the right wing media.

[@jason1440]

You must shop at the white shirt store.

[@diane9247]

I crave stable politics, somewhere, anywhere. It's certainly not in my country, the USA. Now my attention turns to the UK, where politics seems "post-truth," untrustworthy and untrusting, as well. I'll have to listen more closely to understand what Sunak is up to. Perhaps he wants out before the worst of the Brexit aftermath starts happening. What a tiresome world we live in.

[@DJWESG1]

Easy to understand rishy. Just look at your own gop. Same ppl, same agenda.

[@CountDadLord]

Great analysis Vlad. The only bit that surprised me was your hyper-Islington take on the "populist right", which seems to treat it as far more monolithic than it actually is. For sure I share your concern about the anti-democratic authoritarian right, but you seem weirdly relaxed about the anti-democratic technocratic-internationalist left, who realistically wield a lot more power.

[@carelgoodheir692]

The "anti-democratic technocratic-internationalist left" is in charge where? What does that phrase even mean? The threat to democracy was at one time mainly from Far Left/USSR inspired movements but now it undoubtedly comes from Rightist populists.

[@satyr1349]

For all in the UK: make sure you have an in date accepted photo ID. Easy for a poll station worker to say no to an old one. And if you're in a swing state - vote tactically over tribalism to punish the Tories as much as possible.

[@philjameson292]

This photo id is the biggest threat to democracy that any government has done in the UK

[@davidpnewton]

Nope. The ID CAN be expired. The most important thing for expired ID is that the photo mist still look like you. However it is still better to have a current ID.

[@satyr1349]

@@davidpnewton Thats what i said....

[@davidpnewton]

@@satyr1349 no it isn't. You said "make sure you have an in date accepted photo ID". In date means not expired. It therefore does NOT cover ID that is expired but still has a photo which looks like the person concerned.

[@satyr1349]

@@davidpnewton Exactly they can easily say at polling stations it doesn't look like you and that it's out of date and refuse you to allow you to vote. Another authoritarian move by this current government.

[@johnmullin4175]

People should elect neighbors close to home, people they know and trust. Distant celebrity politicians cannot tell the truth or garner trust.

[@bernadmanny]

Looks like Rishi wants to be put out of his misery. But unless he can find a garden shed the size of Buck House there is going to be no hiding it.

[@danwylie-sears1134]

In any election-based political system, parties have to be structured and run to win elections. It's like how in any market, firms have to be profit-maximizers. In each case, the system has to be designed so that acceptable outcomes result from groups following the incentives. Outside of parties, among ordinary citizens, you can try to have a culture of voting for candidates whose parties have a program with enough depth of analysis, enough adherence to truthfulness, and so on. You can't coherently try to have parties do stuff that will get them voted out of existence. In any particular moment, you can call on party leaders to put other ideals above party. But if you do, you're calling for something that's inherently unstable. You can call for it as an emergency measure, but not as a part of how a political system works.

[@ekaterinastaneva9922]

Thanks Vlad for the video. Funny enough I've checked the Labour Mission on their website an hour before your video dropped. I was quite surprised. Strengthening the army and pumping funds in the Defence budget and secure the borders were amongst the price missions. Very hawkish. Not what I expected. Interesting if side characters like lib dems or greens will gain popularity as a response to the erosion of trust towards traditional parties. Anyways. All the best :)

[@SeamusDunmaggotin]

This all feels like a crux moment, so many dynamics at play, huge domestic challenges, and some real polarising foreign policy issues, this election will be telling from a geopolitical perspective. Not my pig, not my farm, but it will effect pork prices, and land values, if you take my meaning. Stoked to see you with the spark back in your eye Vlad, all the best.

[@malcolmgibson5088]

There were calls to bring back Boris. It could be a spoiler by Rishi.

[@suzannstrohmaier2578]

I´ve been getting fund raising ads for both Biden and Trump 🤣🤣🤣 I prefer to donate to help the disabled or people in need in other countries...Trump and Biden do not need my money. If anything money limits should be put in place...I think Canada and maybe other nations have rules on how much time and money can be spent on campaigning. We are always hearing campaign rhetoric over here. 🤣🤣🤣

[@paulyoung4422]

Did Vlad say, trust or truss, we know where that leads.

[@dh1380]

The opppsition party never reqlly gets an opportunity to define policy. I wonder sometimes if all the hammering on about Rwanda was just generation of noise to keep Labour out of the press

[@alyal9495]

I personally think that a version of a coalition government would be best since all major parties are in some degree of an identity crisis at the moment. While this would be an uncomfortable scenario for British politicians, some kind of balancing mechanism would force them reach a clearer and fairer vision for Britain. While the public passionately disliked the last coalition government, the coalition actually had some really good achievements that Tories running the country alone were not able to match afterwards.

[@begr_wiedererkennungswert]

Sending extra 🧡also from my british cat.

[@suzannstrohmaier2578]

I just discovered the German group Rammstein 😅 Ist gut, mein lieblings Lied ist Sonne...sehr gut für üben die Zahlen in Deutsch 😆 Aber das video...I will never see Snow White as before. 😂😂😂😂

[@begr_wiedererkennungswert]

@@suzannstrohmaier2578 Haha, Germany’s most authentic ambassadors. Good taste of music. 🖤 😁 They created an image to appeal to American audience but ended up revealing many truths about our psyche. German fairytales and Rammstein videos have much in common. This is a masterpiece about history and how we feel about our country in a nutshell: Wait, comment with link will get deleted. I mean „Deutschland“ by Rammstein with the original video. My grandmother would have agreed as well as many young people would. They did great work for intercultural understanding until the scandal. How is everything going? I found a living relative in the US, but don't know if I should contact. There's some dark Rammsteinian history behind it.

[@suzannstrohmaier2578]

@begr_wiedererkennungswert Moin : ) Hier ist Nacht. Yeah you should definitely try to reach out to them. We Americans like to learn where our ancestors came from...it is interesting. Doing those DNA tests is common...people are curious...since most of us are a mix of different peoples. Yeah I saw the Deutschland video....pretty intense...so much imagery. I was going to watch it a second time...it was heavy. It was allowed in Germany? I loved 90s music...that's when I was young...but Rammstein never got much attention over here. I do remember the song 99 Luftballoons...that one was popular here. 😁

[@begr_wiedererkennungswert]

@@suzannstrohmaier2578 YT is much more strict than German law, I tried to explain. Gute Nacht!

[@suzannstrohmaier2578]

@@begr_wiedererkennungswert Danke : ) Guten Dacht fur dich...und Guten Nacht fur mich 😄😄😄😄

[@marcussassan]

I saw this video about UK cities going bankrupt. Do you have any thoughts on that?

[@alisonstratton2714]

Years of underfunding by the Tories

[@dawnmoriarty9347]

Councils have been starved of funding by central government whilst having their own income raising (local taxes) capped by the government. Their responsibilities have simultaneously been increased with little or no extra money to cover those responsibilities. Some councils have also made dumb financial decisions, like getting involved in businesses that then went bust. Other councils have had large legal expenses due to compensation cases

[@PT77711]

It’s not really accurate to describe them as having ‘gone bankrupt’, though I know certain areas of the media and some KZbinrs have - a Section 114 notice is not bankruptcy. you shouldn’t understand the process in the same way you would a business or individual going bankrupt.

[@gandalf1379]

The current labour party terrifies me...

[@willwilisovskywillis5273]

How far do you see the current UK situation a echoing the 200s in Russia, where the possibility of voters affecting policy in any way? I was in Moscow 97 to 2014 and very much feel that I I'm witnessing the construction of a managed democracy.

[@glenn5328]

Most of our politicians are corrupt or incompetent or both………not a great advert for democracy.

[@josephknott6174]

Everyone says the conservatives are going to have to decide if they weren’t right wing enough or centrist enough. Am I the only one who thinks the reason they’re going to lose has nothing to do with that and everything to do with they weren’t competent enough?

[@major7thsmcgee973]

Greetings from South East London Vlad! With regards to where Labour stand, agreed we don't know what Labour really stand for. This may be naive, but I think the wishy washy backtracking has all been for the sake of making them more electable and seen as less radical as they were under Corbyn, and we'll likely see what Starmer is really about once he's elected. He's not the only one trading water, as Sunak has been trying to reinvent himself as a populist figure, which suits him as much as a square peg suits a round hole.

[@b.griffin317]

13:00 "Electoral reform"? What does he mean by this?

[@rachelatwood9555]

kkkkhello!!!

[@chaykuh]

Beau-ti-ful community

[@sweinnc]

British politics seems bleak to say the least. 😢

[@CountScarlioni]

It is truly incredible how much hope we had 20 years ago compared to now. I mean, the Blair gov did much wrong (esp. Iraq) but it also did much that seemed to move things in the right direction. There was still a sense of hope that there could be a better future. With perhaps a momentary flicker of hope resurgence in the early 10s, since 2008 it's all felt like a slowly sinking ship and new events only ever bring bad news. This election _could_ be a light at the end of the tunnel... but the way things have been going for the UK, it's probably just an oncoming train.

[@alisonstratton2714]

Indeed

[@user-gm2vf2uq1c]

I'm an Australian, but appreciate your assessment of the UK election - because it's of interest in itself and the UK is an important international player, but also how it relates to Australian politics. I'm not sure Australians felt the Aust Labor Party was 'not ready for government', but there was a nervousness that the Prime Minister would perhaps not be up to the leadership job. He - and they - pleasantly surprised everyone, and now our Government is moving along nicely in the centre with some forward-thinking policies (e.g promoting a renewables path for Australian manufacturing) but also doing the usual gutless thing of avoiding the hard issues like tax reform. La plus ca change...

[@PjRjHj]

The referendum went down like a lead balloon

[@faelirra]

I do wonder if the timing now is because of the Rwanda Flights, courts likely will block them again at some point in the summer, meaning Sunak is calling it now so that in the likely event of the Tories losing, the next Tory leader can blame Labour for cancelling the flights which they say they'll do, instead of having another badset of headlines for them in the summer in the run up to what could have been an Autumn election. (Note I am not a supporter of the Rwanda plan, I think it's atrocious, that said judges blocking it would it being bad for the Tories and turn more towards Reform.)

[@rachelatwood9555]

[USian who listens to way too many podcasts]: are you worried about Wes Streeting's openness to private funding in the NHS? The talking heads I listen to generally argue that majorly expanding public health funding was the best thing to come out of the Blair/Brown era

[@rchristie5401]

What! only 4% of your audience is British. wow.

[@tonyg2554]

Although I really, really want this election to be a complete mauling for the Tories, a huge Labour majority is going to create problems. The economic problems are severe and a huge majority means a lot of back benchers with no hope of government jobs: there will be rebellion and turmoil.

[@davidballantyne4492]

Perhaps an end to 15 years of terrible Tory rule? Sadly Labour seem terrible too, but maybe less so.

[@raycambridge8950]

It's the economy. If it was doing much better the Tories would have stood a chance.

[@rick-potts]

Hands up if you think Rishi's choice of a summer election, means he loses his job early enough to get some kind of tax break or pension pump for FY 24/25....

[@billturner6564]

One can only assume the PM jumped before he was pushed In that yet another leadership election was looking likely

[@drthomason7043]

He doesnt want to be the next on the ICC List

[@NewPipeFTW]

Who ever wins the election I hope its one who takes climate change seriously and keep support for ukraine going.

[@mrharry448]

I had hoped that an incidental benefit of Brexit might have been that within a few years a new, more competent class of politicians might arise to replace the talking shop that had resulted from real decisions being made in Europe. Looks like I can write off the current crop. Hoping that Starmer can unearth some diamonds in the 2024 intake but they will not replace the stabilising centre-left, one-nation conservatives that have been left homeless. I fear a future with the Reform party as official opposition.

[@patrickquinlan5692]

Rishi wants to private jet off with his two daughters over Summer holidays while he takes calls from Amazon to Tesla etc. That’s why he’s chosen that date.

[@justmy-profilename]

Maybe Sunak tries to minimize losses and maybe even become opposition leader. If no other party except Labour is well prepared for the snap election, then the Tories might fare relatively good. And a result which is better as polling currently suggests might help Sunak in keeping the upper hand over right wing populists among the Tories. It's not a failsafe strategy,, but he hasn't much to loose according to polling data.

[@rjScubaSki]

He just wants out. No chance he stays on

[@what-gq9qu]

Expect Labor to present a small target, nothing particularly radical policy wise. They don't need to take any risks to gain votes. Labour just needs to show up and not f* up and the Tories will get voted out, probably in record numbers. Its all a bit uninspiring really.

[@alivekicking6247]

Jeremy Corbyn and his mob of crazies completely tainted Labour for me

[@lgude]

All I would disagree with is that being post truth is exclusive to the populist right. I agree that both sides of the political class seems exhausted at this point so that there seems to be little hope that Labour can offer much. They may discover a positive direction once in office -that sometimes happens. Here is Australia the Labor party has tried to break new ground but spluttered. The preceding conservative government was pretty hopeless but not as super hopeless as the Tories who were handed a huge win and, from my outside point of view, did absolutely nothing with it. Gilbert and Sullivan where are you? It is interesting that populist parties of the right are doing much better in places like France, Sweden and the Netherlands and in the US for that matter. I strongly agree that the tightening of political messaging is just the wrong thing to do in the current situation because it just reenforces that the incumbent political parties are not worthy of any trust. RFK jr's third party run in the US somewhat outs the tight messaging of the main parties, but is pretty eccentric. I don't agree with a lot of his policies, but I do trust him more than the usual suspects. When he says he is qualified to dismantle the abusive administrative state and that he can do it because he knows how it works I believe him and think he would actually try if he became president. I do hope the UK gets its act together before Putin or the Caliphate reaches Calais.

[@MDCDiGiPiCs]

It seems that what you are describing is indeed the path to populism. I think that populism might be a lesser evil than the status quo. The current parties are not doing the heavy lifting required to regain the trust of the people. The perfect example is the inadequate response to the WHO pandemic treaty and the lack of interest in a covid response enquiry. No mention of the above by either side yet these are both major issues and a source for the lack of trust in institutions..This is not exclusive to the UK, even though Scotland have been holding a fairly decent covid enquiry which is well worth looking at.

[@chaykuh]

What would a COVID inquiry attempt to accomplish? Punish govt officials? Allow the justification of anymore investment so your we

[@DJWESG1]

You are a tory though..

[@kap3214]

Hi Vlad, do you think a public intelectual not unlike yourself could ever become the prime minister? I'd love to have a country leader who could honestly represent it's citizens but also help to make sense of the world in a genuine and non-patronising manner. I suspect it'd be impossible and perhaps even detrimental to the country, but I can't put my finger on why exactly.

[@daviddelgado6090]

Out here in the US there's not much info on the finesse of the issues over there. My personal impression is that Britain votes on what it doesn't want rather than on what it wants. I expect Labour to win by default rather than on a constructive platform.

[@CountScarlioni]

Yes, there's a pervading sense of "time for the other side to have a go" in the way people vote in elections here. You have to either be astonishingly good or catastrophically bad as a party to change that pendulum rhythm. The Tories have performed abysmally in government since re-election in 2019, but even had they managed an average-decent performance, their time is up as far as voters are concerned and would have needed a miracle to stay in power.

[@SG-xe1mv]

If the Tories swing right populist post election they will secure a large part of their base. However the majority of that base will be over 50. To have a future it must appeal to younger voters. However, its base (party membership) votes for the party leader. So we are likely to see a party unable to adapt and hurtling towards a diminished relevance. I can see the Tories becoming much like the Republicans in the US; which is a disaster for the UK.

[@bitegoatie]

I do not understand what a "crisis of identity" is at all, particularly as it applies to a group. Are you saying, about Labour, it lacks a clear message (or even clear ideas, though that would be a heftier claim) on how its policy positions and governance proposals differ from the positions it took during the Blair government? If so, my way of saying it lacks the drama of the phrase I quoted, but it also lacks the deadly ambiguity that phrase carries. If you mean something else, I can't get there from what you said. So far as I understand your points, they are all typically thoughtful. My only gripe is with yet another example of the overburdened-to-the-point-of-meaninglessness yet internet-typical misuse of "identity", which is regularly asked to do work it is not equipped to do. But here I just want to be sure I get your meaning right, because I genuinely lost your thread there at the end of the Labour bit. I hoped your medical issues are under control after your difficulties this spring. I'm still abnormally badly mired in the poop, but it is good to see you posting.

[@johncooper6073]

For this election i hope Britain will not make any huge irreversable decisions like rejoining the EU. Were in a moment of remarkable transition with the end of the Post WW2 order. We need to see how things sort out. And a big thing for Britain would be success in the war with Russia it would make Britain safer by far and increase the odds of the EU etc being successful. And labour to my mind is comfortably ambiguous and pragmatic. If these immense constructions like the global American sponsored world order or even the local west European order fail, then our old nation states like the UK are a lot more important. Secession movements like Scotlands or Catalonias all of them are madness that was produced by the great moderation , globalization and the illusion of a safe world of open seas free trade and protection for small nations. Thats not to say local languages like Gaellic and Welsh shouldnt be nurtured in the new federal system . But Britain needs scotland for defense , Scotland really really needs England esp if the EU and Nato fail. No one knows just how parochial and local the USA will choose to be. Canada ,Australia ,Mexico and the Pacific Esp Japan are useful even needful to the USA. But politicians dont always calculate self interest wisely. Britain has more in common with America than Germany , and the EU has to remain a German project probably one that is unsound. But the USA is not easily going to gather Britain ,Canada and Australia under its wings as a common nationality. And the best option for Britain as an alternative if the EU fails is common citizenship , rights to work and move with Canada Australia and NewZealand. Countries the size of Germany or Britain are much to small to be soveriegn like the USA is but 60 million Brits , 40 million ( and rapidly increasing numbers) of Canadians and 30 million Australians are a unit large enough to create modern effective weapons and defence , thats a 130 million people and a lot of wealth although a fraction of the USA, but turning to us rather than Europe has to involve Britain in our defense against China which maybe is a complication they dont want. Its hard to feel anything but contempt for Conservatives who want to immitate radical libertarian american populism. Britain is an island , its fragile America and Australia are continents they cant have similar approaches. We are probably moving into a new age of Empires and closed systems of trades and there should be a scamble to find a safe place...and niether the EU to me , nor Germany looks safe or viable. But i think Britain should wait and see if Germany collapses or surrenders itself to Putin as a vassal before it chooses its larger structure. And the Americans may want very very tight borders that dont include Canada and Britain. We dont know. The tories remember Thatcher who i found distasteful even if the welfare state needed to be reformed as it had been in Canada and the USA. But once she went as far as the sadistic poll tax she should have been more than discarded she should have been forgotten. And this sadistic radical bizzare consetvatism still remembers her. And that ruins it. Britain relative to the USA per capita is extremely poor. It needs to create wealth for a good future and for that to happen labour can taxes away all the money of the rich. And locally generated money is much better for national well being than foreign investment which limits sovereignty. But we cant abolish taxes and the poor half of society needs education, health care and decent housing. One is wasting national wealth and potential if the poor are crushed by sadistic thatcherite austerity.

[@johncooper6073]

*labour cant tax away all the wealth of the rich

[@alisonstratton2714]

Unfortunately the Liberal Party splits the vote and the Conservatives win so often.

[@rahjah6958]

Remind me to ask you how all these elections turned out in 50 years after everything carries on like it has been

[@carelgoodheir692]

The fact that change in the UK was slow for the last 70 years should not make you certain that things won't change faster in the next few decades. The previous '20s laid the groundwork for the '30s. Worldwide populism and narrow nationalism are on the rise again, as they were then.

[@fuerchtenichts]

Sorry, but this analysis sounds in parts more based on historical predjudices than actual realities.

[@infodrop231]

I'm no expert, but I don't agree with you about your analysis re Autumn being better than July. Autumn would be 'run out of gas' time, the sun (may be) shining, and he has economic good news. It also unsettles Reform. So, he's not going to win, but may as well go now.

[@blacklion8208]

Why July 4th?! It's the American day of independence...

[@chaykuh]

They celebrate the day we left home

[@TheDrisk]

I just dont care any more... Tories, Labour, Rishi, Keir, its just the same blokes wearing different coloured ties... nothing will change. Since covid my rent a 2 bedroom flat with 4 people in it Wife, daughter, grand daughter and me) has gone up 50% from £650 to £900, electricity up by 100%... I now have lost my job along with the whole team, as they are moving the work to Malaysia as cheaper... The politicians know how to fix things, build more houses, put rent caps (not the toothless lip service of Labour that wont actually do anything), put employee protection like in Japan where directors get no bonuses if redundancies are made. Nationalise anything that is a required essential service (electricty, gas, water, phone, internet, trains, buses)... but no political party will do it as it will reduce perceived house wealth of the richer and make it tougher for them and their mates. I just want a true choice... not two Tories wearing different ties. I predict Labour win, but worst turn out ever. PS the wrong lesson was drawn from the 70s nationalisation... it can work if skilled people work there and not jobs for the boy. Big company IT departments can run efficiently with no direct profit measures so can a nationalised service... all you are doing is cutting out the middle stakeholders and maximising the wealth to the government and benefitting the employees...abd people didnt go for this with Jeremy Corbyn in a big part because of his weakness on Brexit view and slso because he wasnt that likeable or suitable as a leader.

[@zurielsss]

"directors get no bonuses if redundancies are made" is a beautiful law, should be implemented everywhere The Japanese also have tenant protection that make it very expensive to remove a tenant that has paid rent on time even when the rental contract ends, I think I saw a case where it cost the landlord 4 years of rent to boot a tenant who has been renting for 30 years and paid rent on time as a "relocation fee and compensation" The law also killed the speculation market for property

[@unconventionalideas5683]

I don't think they're the same wearing different ties. I think Labour is just too terrified of the Tory Press to make any promises.

[@TheDrisk]

either way its the same outcome... a Labour to terrified to do anything that isnt Tory is the same as a Tory.

[@davidpnewton]

Rent caps. Oh dear. ANYBODY who proposes that policy automatically disqualifies themselves from serious consideration. They do not work. Fact. Not opinion. Fact. They reduce rented housing stock, massively increase rents and result in poorer standards in the stock that is left (lack of available funds to do maintenance and improvements). Again not opinion. Fact. Much of the rest of the post seems like a socialist wish list. Precisely the sort of policies that lead to disaster. A large part of why the Conservatives have been so useless over the last few years is precisely because they have followed a significant proportion of leftist policies.

[@jimbaerg4108]

How is Brexit affecting the election?

[@piccalillipit9211]

Brexit does not exist according to the politicians

[@alisonstratton2714]

Brexit is the elephant in the room

[@PT77711]

It isn’t really a major issue among voters, who have largely moved on. Most people’s priorities are inflation, the NHS and public services. There are of course some campaigners who talk about it a lot but they don’t enjoy that much support

[@vzuzukin]

What percentage of your audience is USA?

[@martinmorsch7507]

Your idea of a politician in this time is basically a description of our Minister for Economy here in Germany. I like him a lot.

[@csonracsonra9962]

Lip smaking again, im out