Voter Choice Theory and Why the NDP and LPC Don't Merge | BagelCast

Wyatt Claypool from the National Telegraph join me to react to discuss voter choice theory and why the NDP and LPC don't just merge.
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• Why The Polls Don't Ma...
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[@Hoser4Fyfe4]

At first glance I thought the Raisin bagel said "Racist". I'm so used to slander thrown around it's breaking my mind lol

[@countryboy9389]

I didn’t have my glasses on and I too thought it was a racist bagel. Lol. Seems like something that could exist nowadays.

[@dunnowy123]

I genuinely feel a lot of NDPers are self aware enough to know that their party is never going to actually take power and the situation with the Liberals right now is about as close as their going to get for the foreseeable future. But at a certain point, actually running the government isn't really the point; I think the NDP as a party gives them the space to express some of their more "far left" views comfortably and maybe enables them to push the overton window just a bit in their favour.

[@WiseOwl_1408]

No ndp voter is aware of anything.

[@rodneynicholauson4566]

True they won't because Ontario is not a Left Wing Province.

[@user72974]

Holding the balance of power in a minority government means technically having a say in how the country run. Think of it like a poor man's coalition! I see nothing with it tbh.

[@rodneynicholauson4566]

@@user72974Yup its being in charge via the backdoor.

[@dunnowy123]

@@WiseOwl_1408 You or I can disagree with them, but I can tell you I've met many smart, kind, hard working, thoughtful NDP voters. Stop with this bullshit polarization. Not a very wise owl.

[@dougpatterson7494]

This is a fascinating episode. I see the NDP and Greens being more similar than the LPC and NDP. I hope that the “Canadas Future Party” can garner some major support in the next election as they are closer ideologically to the LPC than the NDP. I would like the Greens and even PPC to get a few seats in parliament. I think it would be good for voters to have six national parties to vote for. It would also be good for the country if parliament required more cooperation rather than “government vs opposition” divide.

[@danielcassar8293]

I’m with you about more party’s but definitely not about ppc, that party is actually scary

[@JSK010]

Good one. As non-Canadian but with family there this was very interesting. Also applies to my own country (!)

[@payotimeRamsYT]

Question: can the bloc be the official opposition?

[@funfunfun275]

Thew new Angus Reid poll showed they'd be #2

[@madbeastyeti3850]

I think in like 1993? The Bloc was the Official Opposition one time. The PCs collapsed in that election, Reform and the Bloc basically split the old PC vote down the middle and the Bloc got like 50+ seats, and like 5 seats more then Reform. Bloc hasn't gotten the opposition since though, they are restricted to seats in Quebec, and none of the Major Parties are in collapse like was the case in the 90s.

[@payotimeRamsYT]

@@madbeastyeti3850 thank you

[@MikeJohnson-nr4yo]

Yes, it's possible; however, very unlikely best bet would be 3rd place in most election scenarios.

[@YegRon]

My earliest memories of Canadian politics were of a time when the Bloc were the official opposition.

[@davidsmind]

I think the real question is why don't the conservatives and liberals just merge, as their actions are nearly identical

[@corystarkiller]

Because you don't understand anything about politics, if you think the Liberal's fiscal or social policies line-up with what Conservatives believe. Even under Red Torry control, they're not close enough to the pre-Justin-Trudeau Liberals.

[@payotimeRamsYT]

Why don’t the The Great Canadian Bagel 🥯 and the National Telegraph merge? Oh wait 😅 Great collab excited to see more

[@alexandersolzhenitsyn5186]

This was actually really informative

[@pandastical9205]

A great and insightful podcast!!!

[@Inf]

I really enjoyed this discussion. Watched it over two viewings. Good work, I learned a lot. You two homies should do more together. Based work Bagel and Telegraph

[@bradpederson4510]

Great vid and discussion. Cheers.

[@Inf]

As a yugioh player I love the thumbnail... Now let's see what the video is about

[@bc_life2374]

Why anyone thinks ndp is still union/worker party is ridiculous. Singh walked away from the demographic to pick up the city young college population because it was a bigger demographic. They are not the party of Jack Layton anymore time to wake up

[@gaberator1044]

love the content keep up the good work

[@stevenoar5162]

Make more . Loved it

[@mrbroday7684]

Honestly would be interested to in more videos talking about political science/policy and human nature in response to ads. And where to acquire this wealth of info the two of you have. Whether that be books or what not

[@Merlin_From_Shrek_3]

Great talk!

[@rodneynicholauson4566]

At 1st glance a merger would make sense but it won't happen because unlike the Conservatives and the Alliance/Reform which were basically twins separated the NDP and Liberals at their core are still 2 different parties.

[@jackmillsap745]

Great Analysis. I always thought that NDP was simply the more Left wing Liberal Party, but it's clearly more complicated than that.

[@olivererz6197]

I'm an American democrat, supporter of Biden and Bernie. When I first heard about Canadian politics, I supported the NDP. After 2022, I supported the conservatives. Poilievre actually seems to care about stuff like housing, rent and inflation, which would affect me more than the liberals who just seem to throw social issues around to discredit Poilievre. At the same times, I vote democrat because the democrats are the only party that even remotely cares about my interests. Republicans have blown up the deficits through huge tax cuts for the rich, which have barely benefitted me, despite the fact that they had enourmous price tags that will force middle class families to pay. Republicans have also attacked transgender folks, and historically disliked gay americans, which are social issues I don't appreciate, having loved ones who might be discriminated against in an Republican administration. Democrats are the only ones talking about income and wealth inequality, how hard it is to buy a home, college tuition costs, labor unions, minimum wage laws, healthcare costs which their policies would directly benefit me. That's why I vote democrat. The democratic party has stood for my interests.

[@WiseOwl_1408]

An Americans opinion is worthless

[@rodneynicholauson4566]

Bernie is the Lefts Trump. Do you support Kennedy?

[@madbeastyeti3850]

Social Issues I'd say isn't the big reason why Singh lost the Private Sector Union Votes for the NDP. He stabbed in the back ever major private sector strike which happened in 2023. Every single one, it wasn't even funny. Singh in a Minority Government, as the supply in a Supply and Confidence Agreement, was actually in a position to do something to help all of these Unions, and Blue Collar Workers, and he did nothing. No instead he supported the Liberals in every single Corporatist Trick they pulled to break as many of those strikes as possible. The so called "Union Party" in Canada hates Private Sector Unions, Blue Collar Workers, and Industrial Workers.

[@TheGreatCanadianBagel]

That is not something that has been widely reported on so its slipped my mind in this video, but that is a very good point. The NDP didn't just alienate their core voting block by focusing on issues they don't care about, they actively betrayed them on issues they do care about.

[@madbeastyeti3850]

@@TheGreatCanadianBagel It's not widely reported because the Gov and Media try to cover any private sector strikes as little as possible. It's insane. Plus any coverage which is actually report is very brief and one way.

[@WiseOwl_1408]

Dilusional and absurd

[@madbeastyeti3850]

​@@WiseOwl_1408Oh! I remember you Ford Nation! Please tell me where was the NDP during the Second largest Economic Strike in Canada for the past 40 years? The West Coast Dock Workers Strike, when the Liberals ran ruff short over the Dock Workers and was playing every Corporatist Trick in the book on them? Oh! Right whispering empty platitudes and hiding there heads in the sand. Oh! What about the Largest Economic Strike that happened in the past 40 years? Literal months after the West Coast Dock Strikes? Where was the NDP there? Because I was sitting on one of those ships, screaming out in support for the Unifor Boy. Strange how that got such little media attention. What about the Quebec City Port Strike, which has been going on for a year? With the Port Managers literally having to run the peers by themselves because all of there workers are on strike? A strike I know for a fact has gotten absolutely no coverage? Where was the NDP when the Liberals passed Scab legislation for the Port of Quebec? What about the Windsor Salt Dock Strike? Where have the NDP been for that? Only Media coverage that strike has gotten is when the boys went in with bats to go after scabs. Or where was the coverage when the SIU said that all ships going into the Windsor Salt dock wouldn't help to do work in unloading ships in solidarity with the Windsor Boys? What about the CMSG Annual meeting where the NDP showed up uninvited and very unpolitely told they were never allowed beer another CMSG meeting? Speaking of the CMSG, where was the NDP when the Liberals passed the new regs for recognition of Forgien Merchant Naval Officer Qualifications, and the CMSG was screaming bloody murder? But that's just the Canadian Marine Industry, what about the other strikes, and private sector labour disputes in 2023? The Train Workers Strike? The Auto Workers Strike? The list just goes on and on for 2023, and the wonderful so called "Union Party" NDP did nothing to help any for the Private Sector Strikes, large or small, when for the first time in a long time they had the power too. Let's also not forget all the years previous Singh was in charge too. If your saying delusional, about the clear facts in the NDPs relationship with Private Sector Unions for the past few years, it's pretty clear you ain't ever worked a real job in your life, nor have you even been neer any organized private sector labour.

[@corystarkiller]

Great podcast.

[@memph7610]

23:35 I wonder if this is just because there's a shift against the left taking place (or against the LPC-NDP coalition) currently, and maybe in different election cycles the NDP would be more likely to switch to the LPC?

[@TheSjdeagles]

good collaboration

[@owen4740]

Funny that you mentioned Green to PPC voters, I actually have a lot of family that've voted Green for years but switched to PPC last election.

[@SpankoSaurusRex]

Thank you for the Yu-Gi-Oh! reference!

[@ryanm7171]

It's not just the voters, it's the membership of each party that matter. I assure you that members of the NDP, Liberal, and Conservative Parties see themselves very different from each other. At the end of the day, the members of the Parties have to decide whether they want to merge or not.

[@thecanadianempire8767]

Well considering the NDP are a Social Democratic Party and the Liberals are Centrists i think the answer is self evident, the parties are to ideologically different from each other with points of agreement being substantially watered down by the Liberals but it's those points of agreement that have the NDP prefer the Liberals over Conservatives because the Conservatives don't agree with any of the Major Parties showing their unwillingness to compromise or get anything done unless it's on their terms. It demonstrates how far the Conservative Party has drifted to the Right that their so Partisan and Uncompromising, it damages their image of being the common sense party and makes them appear as out of touch ideologues uninterested in governing for all Canadians but the most vocal members of the Conservative Party.

[@corystarkiller]

You're using the pre-Trudeau understanding of the Liberals. They've gone socially and fiscally left. The NDP just went further left than that. You have a major leftist bias in your understanding. Especially of the Conservative party. You're just used to Red Torries, like O'Toole, and not actual Conservatives. The Conservatives haven't "damaged their image", in fact, everything they've done, has strengthened their image. You can see it in the polling data. Once people realized that Poilievre was an actual Conservative, they've been picking up more and more popularity. The most recent poll, shows them with 200+ seats. They've doubled they're popularity, in just 1 year.

[@liam4105]

Stephen Micheal Davis is awesome

[@funfunfun275]

He is taking a break from making content for a bit since it was getting a bit too busy for him but he tentatively agreed to come on my show when he is back.

[@yarrowification]

Its funny "at least im not the other guy" has always seemed to me to he the canadian conservative parties platform... well that and oil

[@POVwithRC]

A whole hour and a half :3

[@johnnewton3592]

Most topics in politics are complex, and most voters do not spend the time to really learn about the topics, rather they pick up on the talking points. This is a major issue with the Conservatives and they play up on one issue topics. The prime example is the carbon tax. Many conservative voters actually do not understand the history of the carbon, how the money is used, the point of it, and the overall cost. I am not saying I support the tax, but this is a good point as to how uninformed the voter base is and generally conservative voters are the ones that tend to pick on the one issue topics and do not do the research to understand the topic. Another example is how many of my friends think housing and education are both federal areas of jurisdiction, yet both are provincial. I been involved in politics for years and the way the media is used to manipulate the public's opinions on issues, is the main reason why have the divide we do.

[@corystarkiller]

No, most Conservatives have actually paid attention to the research, and know that it's all based on manipulated data and WEF funded policy. You don't need a university degree to understand that CO2 is plant food and that affordable fuel is the reason we're not utterly poor and starving. If you'd have actually done your research, you'd know that we're getting new data from Europe that's calling into question the entire CO2 scare, along with the lawsuit against the "Hockey Stick Graph" data manipulation. And you'd have been following the "greenification" of deserts. That's all before the regular scientific understanding of CO2.

[@johnnewton3592]

@@corystarkiller post links to the research from Europe and I can take a look.

[@corystarkiller]

@@johnnewton3592 You have google, and in the 2 days and 32 minutes that you waited to post that, you could have easily found the results. I'm not your errand-boy. If you want me to collect the data for you, you can pay me. Otherwise find it yourself. It's free on the internet, and not difficult to find. I really don't care if you believe truth or not, I just pointed out that you're out-of-date, and pointed you in the direction of correcting your own mistakes. I'm not going to waste my life trying to educate someone, that I have no clue if you're actually receptive to new information. As 66% of people reject new true facts, that conflict with their narratives.

[@diegoarmando5489]

I'd vote for the Bloc or the Green Party. There's a chance that a merger attempt would create the impetus for socialists in the NDP, the GPC, and the BQ to abandon the centrist and social democratic factions of their respective parties to form a new Podemos or SYRIZA-style party.

[@WiseOwl_1408]

Taking an anime pfp serious is a funny thought.

[@rodneynicholauson4566]

Their should be a poll to see how much support the BQ has outside of Quebec.

[@corystarkiller]

@@rodneynicholauson4566Probably some in New Brunswick, and probably a bit in eastern Ontario, and probably next to none everywhere else.

[@memph7610]

2:10 however, I think social conservatives tend to increasingly align with other social conservatives with their positions on social issues and likewise for liberals. At least for the currently contentious issues (DEI/critical social justice, trans issues, covid mandates, mass graves, even climate policy and Ukraine/Israel).