Clinging To The Wreckage - The Property Imperative Weekly 13 April 2019

[@AirIndiaAnand]

Martin, that was one of the long but BEST analytical presentation that contained a deep-drill-down analysis of datasets ('proclaimed' as current NOT SO BAD status) to decode the inherent factors and extract the realistic information that the data has to offer with meaningful arguments to substantiate the conclusions drawn. WELL DONE! It was not boring and Hats off to your dedication to BRING OUT THE TRUTH BEHIND THE DATA. In my view, I can't be convinced by an international agency (not based in AU) that presents its data unless that data is validated by SOMEONE SMART ON GROUND to second the conclusions they draw. Be it IMF or WB or any other! Simple "IF YOU ARE NOT IN THE BATTLEFIELD YOU ARE NOT A WARRIOR" See you on Tuesday!

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Thanks - yes I think the weight of evidence is the critical issue.

[@AirIndiaAnand]

​@@WalkTheWorldDFA Yes! this is a sample for "DIGITAL FINANCE ANALYTICS" of Finance and Property Digest with a distinctively AUSTRALIAN FLAVOUR from data drawn from the global financial institutions.

[@benm3819]

I honestly may have listened to/watched every video you have posted. I am always surprised at your output.

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Good to hear... thanks

[@MrWilliam.Stewart]

I think Martin must be powered by renewable enthusiasm, either that or by all the spin that the banking/political sector are giving off. Either way, the man is a machine.

[@harrypetros7201]

Sydney had a clearance rate of 65 percent today........ you have to admit that is a massive change from late last year of 45 percent And it’s on 700 plus auctions in Sydney....... have we hit bottom in Sydney?? Or is it a dead cat bounce?????

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Need to look at the volume of auctions, and the final clearance - the 65% is relatively meaningless....

[@michaelkestrel8363]

We need this level of analysis in the United States. I am surprised the Aussie government has not attempted to censor your reports.

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Thanks - well of course just reciting the data which exists ... not reported widely on the MSM here.

[@merlingeikie]

Many thanks Martin. You deserve a pat on the back and a large roll of bills. What you are saying is that really things have only just started to decline. The whammy to come from unemployment has not hit at all .... yet. The domestic economy is constrained due to lack of euphoria caused by the wealth effect. This will not improve as conditions deteriorate. The employment shock, along with massive cost of living costs, onerous taxation, GST burdens and lack of infrastructure, all weigh heavily on production. Fiscal policy has just about run out of options, they have played their hand to boost the housing boom and now that is flat. GDP boosts from government spending is really just private sector income, coerced into government accounts and inefficiently and ineffectually spent, far too often.

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Yes ageism is alive and well in Australia. I know from first hand experience too... we need a new approach as I fear neither main party is capable of steering the ship away from the iceberg....

[@rockonthelough5417]

If the Oz market totally collapses, it'll be the best independently documented decline in history. Economics students may be studying this in 20 years time . Well done Martin.

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Thanks, yes a slow motion train wreck...

[@MrWilliam.Stewart]

Shh, everything is fine, both the bank manager and the real estate agent told me so. They wouldn't be telling porky pies would they?

[@rockonthelough5417]

Living in UK in 2007 I remember reading a detailed article in the Times business section. It exactly predicted what happened 1 to 2 years later in UK/Ireland (asset prices halving etc). It went against the grain of the contemporary reporting and I remember thinking it was the only thing I'd read that made sense. I'd wish I'd kept it as the reporter deserves a medal.. I also remember being at a BBQ with friend who had about 10 investment properties (some he'd bought sight unseen). I recounted the article and he looked at me like an alien...literally.

[@rockonthelough5417]

@@WalkTheWorldDFA ...it's very easy to say ..It's all going to collapse as eventually you are right. It's the technical backup and demolition of the status quo reporting that will be hard for the MSM to argue with in hindsight.

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Well opinions may vary, but the data does not lie.

[@zenithsurveyorsperth297]

I would like to weigh in from Perth W.A. I run a small land surveying company called Zenith Surveyors. We service the mum and dad residential housing market and land development sector. From July 2018 to December 2018 was very quiet for us compared to previous years. I was paranoid that 2019 was going to be our descent into bad times (well worse times).. I am happy to say that since the royal commission our enquiries have gone through the roof in particular in the Land Subdivision area. We are seeing lots of activity in the residential housing market again and people are stirring and moving on things they had placed on the shelf at the end of 2018. I love your work Martin and follow you daily but we are not seeing what I expected to see in 2019 and I am making hay while the sun shines. Keep up the good work mate and i hope that things keep going like this in Perth and do not get worse like you are predicting. Kevin (Zenith Land Surveyors).

[@beno9679]

Sounds like people are trying to sell their backyard to pay their debts. Should be a lot of work coming your way then and lots of cheap small lots about to flood the market.

[@zenithsurveyorsperth297]

@@beno9679 Exactly my thoughts Ben, it could be very busy for a while and then grind to a halt.... Let's see

[@thomasinch5183]

Keep up the good work Martin. Thanks

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Thanks

[@tonycoz2309]

When real estate agents start sending me emails of properties for sale you know things are slowing down. This was not the case a few years ago when real estate was still bubbling along and agents were lining their pockets with commissions. I'm in the construction industry. What you see going up now are project that were on the drawing boards a few years ago. Currently projects are being placed on hold and shelved. The down turn is well and truly here and I fear it will worsen.

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Yes evidence suggests you are correct

[@infamousinfamy1]

try and tell them that you are interested in a property! I have gotten a phone call every day for 2 weeks. Not even that keen on the property. (Auckland, NZ).

[@nickashton3584]

big w closing 20 stores and two distribution centers

[@audie-tron9219]

You look very handsome today, Martin.

[@davidlazarus67]

I agree with you in that the RBA is trying to talk the market up while it hopes the economy it created somehow recovers. The fact that they are still hoping for a credit boost indicates that they are ignoring the existing debt overhang.

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Correct - the debt is the problem, and the momentum is still driving household debt higher....

[@bondisteve3617]

Thanks Mr. Martin. Great effort again.

[@johnl4469]

Thanks Martin. Sterling effort as usual.

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Thanks

[@ChasingMidnight001]

Ahh..happy Sunday! Listening to Martin North in the background & playing Candy Crush.

[@amadd5641]

You're doing well to take in the data and play games too.

[@murraykrause8869]

Our commercial centre has turned into restaurant/coffee shops and they imagine they'll make a living as more and more buy coffee and nothingelse. Manufacturing not feeding a housing market is rare . With such a lopsided economy with the rest surviving on govt subsidy , what do they really expect is going to happen especially when everyone maxed out on debt living in fear of interest markets getting tweaked opposite to rates suppression if governments lose it and raise bond rates.

[@linmal2242]

Yes, all our factories in inner Sydney, developed over decades of enterprise, along with our industrial neighbours, now gone; swept aside by the relentless apartment/unit development mentality of Sydney developers. The busy, co-operative, industrial suburb now a shadow of its former manufacturing self along with all the other South and West Sydney industrial precincts.

[@MG-xy9rn]

Your corelogic index chart will need a bigger y axis soon.... down down prices are down

[@amadd5641]

It's gonna be a long cold winter for the property market, especially in Melbourne.

[@nuvisionprinting]

So what you are saying is that we are all in the shit just depth varies?

[@world-uk2vj]

Qld has an interesting absentee tax on property owners Currently only for those out of the country Next those out of the state

[@linmal2242]

Yes, all our factories in inner Sydney, developed over decades of enterprise, along with our industrial neighbours, now gone; swept aside by the relentless apartment/unit development mentality of Sydney developers. The busy, co-operative, industrial suburb now a shadow of its former manufacturing self along with all the other South and West Sydney industrial precincts. Is this progress to emasculate our manufacturing and rely on importing everything from Chiiiina?

[@jaysherlock7307]

Great work Martin.

[@troysanchez776]

Where I live in the USA, the municipality won't investigate people living in caravans in the yard (usually someone else's due to repo or give back to bank) if they do so discreetly as homelessness is worse. Has Australia followed suit in many places?

[@songforguy1]

Hard to estimate the numbers but there are perhaps a small number of vagrants living in vans moving from places to place here. One near where I live goes around hooking up to people's power and water when people aren't home.

[@StephenMortimer]

A Yank suggests that Aussies replace the DINGO with the UNDERDOG as the national canine !!

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Nice...

[@audie-tron9219]

An underdog ate my baby!

[@dumbjaffa4668]

his name is Malcolm...........

[@tomcoughlan2532]

Great post looks like the second part of 2019 will resume market carnage..

[@evogardens]

Present !

[@Natpoo101]

What is the catalyst for house prices recovering in 2020 onwards? Population growth will only drive wages lower!

[@davidlazarus67]

Natalie Reid Fairy dust. That is the only thing that can work now. The average citizen is over indebted and so needs a big fiscal boost to help them work through this mess. That is unlikely so expect a further slow grind down of the economy. This could last decades because they don’t have a clue as to the real problem and the extent.

[@CookieMonster-wy4qb]

Unleash quantitative easing bang problem solved 😂😂

[@davidlazarus67]

Brick House That is what they will most likely do and basically send Australians on to the streets protesting. QE has not worked for the average citizen and another round will not make anything any better unless you are a billionaire.

[@CookieMonster-wy4qb]

David Lazarus won’t it create another property bubble ?

[@davidlazarus67]

Brick House Yes possibly but the problem is convincing people that they can afford even more debt. With people already having problems with large debts it might actually have no impact at all. It will be a signal that the transmission mechanism is broken. It worked before because they were able to convince people to borrow. A good way to visualise how it might be affected is how would you personally respond to an extra $200000 of debt knowing what you already do because you are on this channel? Now how would you respond if you were an ordinary citizen who has not discovered this channel, would your decision be different? That is how you can guesstimate the impacts. So I expect that the transmission mechanism for the money to get into the real economy is completely broken and will have a multiplier effect of 10% or less. So a $Trillion extra debt will only boost the economy by less than $100 Billion. Yet that Trillion still has to be repaid one day.

[@johndouglass3010]

Thank you Martin. Video is disciplined and data based. Most people I know totally believe in property being in a temporary 'dip' and will rebound as previous cycles, regardless of data showing historically high private debt. Martin, what do you think of interviewing an anthropologist or group psychologist to get understanding of Australians refusing to change our culture of property speculation ponzi. ?

[@CookieMonster-wy4qb]

John Douglas u would have too be British am I correct ? I’m not a qualified psychologist or anthropologist but i can assure u one thing about the Australian culture we bet on 2 flys running up a wall ! That’s were the problems start and finish ! This property bust is going too be magnified because of that weakness !

[@johndouglass3010]

John Douglass was born in western Queensland to Australian born parents of the country. Maybe you are right about Australian gambling culture. I walk through clubs and am amazed at how many people sit alone playing poker machines. I guess I am a bit if a nerd, because I just can't see what all these people get out of gambling.

[@CookieMonster-wy4qb]

John Douglass all good John I didn’t mean too sound judgmental ! U in fact are more Australian than me so I appreciate u not being offended ! I just think the Australian culture is very much gambling orientated & its a country that has experienced very little hardship so its psychic will be let’s roll the dice one more time ! 🍻🍻♠️♣️

[@ChasingMidnight001]

Cool idea!

[@MrWilliam.Stewart]

Do you get any sleep Martin? You seem to always be working. Like non stop working.

[@zarkoristov5585]

@truth is indestructible lol same Q from me!

[@geoffding]

Off topic but if bail in occurs with deposits. Can bail in also take title deeds to property that the bank holds for people with loans that are mostly paid off?

[@Rockymtway98]

The mortgage is a fixed contract so not unless specifically written into the contract, which I highly doubt that has happened to anyone. Deposits are subject to change of terms and conditions making them moving targets.

[@bgregg55]

The truth is, the music stopped a while ago & the chairs are all taken.

[@samiah21]

All this data is paralysing most people. If you have a good job and/or money you should be buying good assets. Just like who bought in 2008-2010 you will be laughing all the way to the bank in 10 years.

[@CookieMonster-wy4qb]

Bogdan Sikorski 👁

[@lucas8222lt]

@Bogdan Sikorski Why quote Japan, Australia has 0 parallels to Japan before it crashed not even close to Ireland ..............I think there is a lot of wishful thinking on this sub

[@lucas8222lt]

@Bogdan Sikorski Get real mate this channel is famous for being negative don't patronise me for having a different opinion I'm very financially literate Japan had 18 times wage to house price to wage ratio at the peak of there boom in Sydney and Melbourne are no where near that and Japan has next to no immigration and a falling population we have massive immigration

[@lucas8222lt]

@Bogdan Sikorski People can have different opinions about things such as economics and the state of markets, if it was as simple as analysing particular data set there wouldn't be different opinions it would be fact. There are so many variables and so many economists such as Martin comment on how they interpret data.

[@TheDixiechick12]

The Economy, Banking, and implementing Glass Steagall should be Election Campaign Topic.Australians make it the topic

[@tomtesoro7994]

STOP PRESSES ! Sign seen at Gregory Hills ( new Sydney Suburb) " 41,000 NEW RESIDENTIAL LOTS FOR SALE"

[@ytyt3922]

How is it possible that Brisbane is down more yoy than from peak?

[@MrADTNZ]

Nice

[@StephenMortimer]

Haa.... a very distant POMMIE relative of mine WROTE the book . !! wiki "Clinging to the Wreckage"

[@lucas8222lt]

Im calling property market to stop declining after the election there is too much pent up demand June 2019 property prices will level out

[@MrRogueStaffy]

1 ?

[@evogardens]

Winner 💰

[@georgemarcotte]

please take DASH, or bitcoincash

[@zarkoristov5585]

DOES ANYONE ON THIS CHANNEL REMEMBER RENE RIVKIN??????????

[@mikedunn5029]

Second

[@ianpennack]

222nd thumb up.

[@patrickbutterly6914]

The herd is always wrong

[@thebeautifulones5436]

Sydney property owners losing $1000/wk

[@rockonthelough5417]

This is where psychology kicks in. They've had years of good news but it only takes a small amount of negative news to offset that. We are wired to weight bad news much more heavily than good news

[@markstevenson6852]

Other places far worse... Box hill......down 41% from peak.......on 1.5M average PROPERTY.......Thats 615 K/YR = $11,826.00/ WK. Get you head around that number..... coming to a suburb near you.

[@bluesky9855]

Mr Martin, I love to listen your video. I watched all of them. Hope you can make your video shorter. This is just a feedback.

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

This was a long one, most are shorter - depends on content...

[@dukeoversteer]

@@WalkTheWorldDFA I for one like your longer videos Martin as I know there is real content and not fluff.

[@songforguy1]

A labor party victory and the abolition of negative gearing will virtually guarantee the death of interest only loans, furthering the demise of a housing market dependant on cheap credit.

[@nickashton3584]

iron your shirt

[@markstevenson6852]

Nah, that's the look ...got one myself.

[@priyaponnus8620]

Martin using his time for useful analysis instead of ironing his shirt and wasting his time. Smart people always don’t bother how they look but they bother how the content look.