War and a speakerless House | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast

[@BrubandJfowl]

Galen hissing at the cat killed me

[@joannawarrens5117]

Hey guys! I am running for Congress in CA district 1. I have been listening since 2019 and you all have really educated and inspired me. Thanks!

[@DetectiveStablerSVU]

Can you help pass the Latinx Alert? I just saw California released the Ebony Alert, which I think is a great idea. The only issue is that the Latinx community doesn't have an alert for missing folx up to the age of 25.

[@joannawarrens5117]

I will look into it!

[@joshntn37111]

​@@joannawarrens5117He is obviously trolling you. You ain't ready for this kind of spotlight.

[@veggiet2009]

"good use of vibes vs bad use of vibes" 😂

[@antigonemerlin]

Silly humans, we all know cats are the real overlords.

[@CoolInOlympia]

Would love to hear an updated view from you guys on the ongoing situation in Israel and Gaza.

[@suburbanhousewife40]

Hello Galen and crew. I wonder if you can run a model in which America has the same voting rules as a Canada and/ or Australia. These nations have one citizen: one vote: mandatory vote rules. Can we ask, for a Presidential, Senatorial other Federal election, what might be the results if voting in USA were mandatory?❓

[@ShuffleboardJerk]

Unfortunately I wouldn’t hold my breath for any models being released by 538 anytime in the near future. Nate Silver, the guy that designed all of their sports and politics models, was laid off a few months ago, and was replaced by a guy that knows a bit about polling but nothing about modeling. Since then, all of their models have been taken offline and no new models have been published.

[@cotus2408]

@@ShuffleboardJerk😳 ? !

[@ProfDCoy]

I think the main issue there is there's really no data on how US non-voters would vote. Like, even if you could get a hold of a sample of people who definitionally don't involve themselves in politics (so probably have a higher response non-response rate), there's just no prior data on how non-voters' votes compare to their polling data because, well, they don't vote so you can't test their votes against polling in the first place! Maybe this issue is negligible or solvable. I'd be curious to learn how. Also, the very fact that non-voters will and must vote would probably have a huge effect on both Dem and GOP platforms (mostly GOP though...) which would throw out model! Still interesting, but it's just funny to note that the very act of DOING mandatory voting would throw current polling out of whack and there might be no way to adjust for that until the first vote/s happen 😀

[@RoyalKingOliver]

It’s seriously just chaos again on Capitol Hill. I just really hope work gets done

[@Mooseman327]

What work? All they do is pass laws that limit more and more freedoms. Best if they don't pass any more.

[@Fuchsia_tude]

@@Mooseman327Congress is required by the Constitution to pass budgetary laws. If they don't, the government shuts down, needed services are not provided, millions go without paychecks, etc., and all the knock-on effects that ripple out from that into the wider economy, which grow exponentially worse with every passing day it remains shut down. If they don't have a speaker, they can't even do that.

[@zen1647]

I love ranked choice voting here in Australia. We out democracy the beacon of democracy!

[@hmuniz002]

The U.S has never been a democracy it's a democratic republic. Always has been and will be until it's no longer the U.S

[@cotus2408]

😳 ? !

[@pauld6967]

"Ranked choice" seems very wishy-washy. A "well, if my guy doesn't win, I guess that I can tolerate this other guy being the winner" method, like you get to cast more than one ballot for the candidate of your choice. Plus it slows down the process of determining a winner. Proper elections are like a boxing match. Two men enter the ring as competitors and the fight isn't done until one has his arm raised in victory by the referee while the other man lays unconscious upon the canvas.

[@zen1647]

​@@pauld6967Ranked choice allows voters to give more information to their government in a simple procedure. It favors moderation, and encourages parties to work together. Also, candidates can be female too by the way.

[@noamfinnegan8663]

What a country 😂 Much love from Ireland 🇮🇪💚🇺🇸 Long Live our Republic's and the Constitution's for which they stand ✊

[@joshntn37111]

Bro, these people hate America. What u talking about? 😂

[@matthunter4868]

Galen has 'Kermit' voice

[@auttonaught96]

das war eine schöne Katze!

[@Dunaril]

Why is the post-GOP-debate analysis podcast from 2 weeks ago gone?

[@LauraSoly]

To pick a nit, it’s not “pro temp” it’s *pro tem*.

[@cotus2408]

😀😂 “ Nit Picking “ 🥰

[@RobRoss]

A person can both be sympathetic to the plight of the Palestinian people AND condemn what they just did in Israel. If you’re skipping over the mass murders, the decapitations, the rape, the murder of children, and the hostage taking that just happened in Israel, by PALESTINIANS, and if you want to just say “well Israel reaps what it sows,” then the very EXACT SAME THING can be said about the Palestinians, they reap what they sow. Now, how has that made anything better?? 🤔

[@enzorocha2977]

No dog in this fight, but I find it cringey when I hear "Hamas terrorist attack." If part of your country was occupied by a foreign power (and historically, we all know how "fun" that must be for the locals, even if we only read about it) and you fight back, is it fair to label you a terrorist? Here's a whataboutism: if a militant Ukrainian organization were to bomb a Russian province and kidnap innocent civilians, would we be hearing "Ukrainian terrorist attack" in the news? I wonder. Kind of telling that western media always think Palestinians as terrorists while never calling out Israel for their apartheid in the Gaza Strip.

[@elizur2010]

You can support the palestinian call for a free country, freedom and equality AND also admit that this attack was a horrific terrorist attack. No contridiction. The massacare of hundrets of young civilians in a music festival is not an act of legitimate war. It is terrorism. The breakin into houses in villages and massacare an kidnapping of entire families, babies and elderly is not legitimate warfare. It is not a thousand soldiers they killed. It's mostly families, children, festival goers. It is not even in the occupied territories of the west bank, these attacks were carried out in legitimate, internationally recognized Israeli towns. If you want peace for Palestine, you should condemn and put down these terrorist groups.

[@joshuamatkin8306]

In the time of colonial America, revolutionaries would be considered terrorists?

[@cotus2408]

Hasn’t Russia already “ taken children “, from Ukraine, to Russia 🥲😢😭 ? !

[@isaacwesterlingsauer6497]

Do you think it is possible 10 Republicans vote "present" (possibly as a deal), lowering the threshold and handing the speakership to Jefferies?

[@cotus2408]

😳 ? ! ( There was no concern when the speakership was given to McCarthy, after more than a dozen attempts 🤬 ! He held it only ten months ! 😀😂

[@wzackwzackw]

does anyone else think nathaniel rakich is lowkey hot?

[@MartinBartonLartonFargo]

Nice work. I appreciate the clear effort to be balanced.

[@1848revolt]

Balanced in the first sentence he called freedom fighters terrorists. I know why he is Jewish.

[@MartinBartonLartonFargo]

@@1848revolt Listen further for the full discussion. I condemn both Hamas and Netanyahu. Neither have the best interests of their citizens in mind.

[@1848revolt]

@@MartinBartonLartonFargo again. You call freedom fighters terrorists. We know who butters your bread. You do just like all the MSM does. Put your bias in it. We know for a fact the Israelis have been killing Palestinians for generations. And they break out of their prison and you side with the guards. Not the political prisoners

[@ShadowWalker-vq7kb]

The oppressor can't be the victim

[@richietattersall2122]

What's currently happening in Israel? They have been building it up for years, the reason they actually started it when they did is the Republicans in the House of Representatives, only 2 of the 3 branches of our Government is fully functional and they are the reason.

[@FemFlorida]

I watched this pretty often and I noticed that you tend to dwell on the negative and rarely give credit where credit is due. I'm not sure what to make of that. Although I believe your reporting is superb, it just has a really negative slant

[@cotus2408]

🎼WAR ! What is it good for ? ABSOLUTELY nothing 🎶🎵 😡 ! ( Edwin Starr )

[@Habib_Osman]

Oilfields! Very good!

[@anchzmedia542]

PRESSURE @LeaderMcConnell to remove Tuberville and Rand Paul from all committee's unless they relent on appointments Stop hurting our Military or have @SenSchumer hold all senators 24/7 for 7 days a week until they stop their holds @LeaderMcConnell sleeping on a COT

[@andym4695]

I suppose I'm a typical Dem. I mean, how many decades have we been reading about Israel illegally settling West Bank? And the state of life in Gaza is reportedly abysmal. That said, there's *no* excuse for what Hamas did. I can't condone terror - ever. I've said (for what it's worth) that a carrot/stick approach is neccessary in Gaza. Gaza should be rewarded for being peaceful with increased integration in Israel's economy. Not only is this just, but it also makes better sense. People are more likely to behave as if they've nothing to lose, if they have nothing to lose, right?

[@samgross3873]

You don't think this is what's been happening? Thousands of Gazans work or trade in Israel every day - and the number has been rising for 2 years. Turns out that you can make rockets from carrots.

[@markaisenberg6641]

Hamas needs to be a parking lot

[@glenncalkins4764]

I like your co-hosts

[@kateajurors8640]

Also just so everybody knows there are 35 states where you cannot boycott Israel you can literally be arrested there are different laws depending on each date but yes individuals can be arrested and fined. What are these states made these laws throughout the pandemic. Keep all of that in mindPeriod you also can't request sanctions against Israel or even talk about it because apparently freedom of speech doesn't count when it comes to Israel even in the United States because you know we fund them

[@SolaceEasy]

Can you pick sides in either mess?

[@cindybraun371]

I just watched a podcast about the decline of birthrates across the world. China is in trouble after this decade. Not enough workers to produce anything. Our gen z have no ambition all over the world to have children or a work ethic. These guys teally understood the global network of how societies rise and fall. Take in those immigrants and embrace them. They are Americans multi level workers..We will fall behind like china is about to. They are a resource for America and canada to thrive..

[@cotus2408]

I read that there are more men than women in China, which led to “ same sex “ couples ! Also, the women are now allowed to have more than one child, but they don’t want to, because it is too expensive . . . clothing and feeding, as well as daycare, etc. ! 😱

[@arun279]

38:48 I don’t think it’s about communication anymore so much as what they actually do. Neither side has any real plan to fix the completely broken legal immigration system.

[@citizensnips7949]

No money for Israel. No money for Ukraine. Focus on fixing things at home before wasting money on pointless wars. How did so many people fail to learn anything from the Afghan War?

[@wcoasttigger]

And the years of war in Iraq, syria, yemen, ...

[@Sattrax]

Go Jor

[@marlondowney4033]

*slow clap* well done recognize this larger scope of the wars at hand and nuances need to approach it.

[@joshntn37111]

Cringe. 😂

[@peterford9369]

Would you consider Israel and Palestine about equal militarily? It's pretty obvious that Russia has more military capabilities than Ukraine. Therefore it's a David and Goliath situation. That's why our and others opinions about helping Ukraine is more justified.

[@Historymaking101]

Stop saying unilateral when you mean universal please.

[@ArcaneCowboy]

FFS this has nothing to do with the US southern border. Disgusting take by those politicians.

[@MaiTai16]

High times 🫠

[@MAGA-tears]

can everyone stop saying 'twitter formerly known as x'? We got it. The name changed. It's enough already.

[@veggiet2009]

I don't think I'll ever get over the name change, one of the worst marketing decisions on the surface, but because all press is good press, does that make it actually a good decision???

[@jumpythehat]

There's no good option. Either (1) you call it X, which is confusing, because everyone knows it as Twitter, and even if you know it's called X now there's still the split-second where you have to translate it to "Twitter" in your head; (2) you call it Twitter, which is technically wrong so you'll have pedants going "uM aCkShUlLy It'S cAlLeD X nOw"; or (3) you call it "X, formerly known as Twitter", which is correct but (as you rightly point out) is cumbersome and annoying.

[@dionbaillargeon4899]

I'll continue calling it "Twitter". I just don't care.

[@Zhenn9413]

no

[@dionbaillargeon4899]

@@sneezewortyarrow5192 Twitter is virtually 70% porn already, so it's fitting.

[@Ziontrainism]

First!!

[@christopherhanshew652]

The weird scowling Nate Silver clone with long hair gets saved at @10:45 by much more thoughtful words from the gal.

[@christopherhanshew652]

Same thing at 29:30

[@christopherhanshew652]

Ugh. This is so bad.