Wargaming Russia's Military Options in Ukraine

Stratfor examines six offensive military options that Russia could conduct in Ukraine.
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[@jacondo2731]

6 years later and we had an invasion , honestly this is just interesting even more so

[@burkanarburky4447]

Ukraine prepart themself for this.

[@morleycross1980]

@@burkanarburky4447”prepart “😂

[@AGS363]

Small side comment: If russia chooses to openly attack ukraine, they may also use their forces in belarus.

[@Karifi]

You are right

[@blue_ivez2222]

this comment has aged well

[@blagoevski336]

Welp you were right

[@blue_ivez2222]

Sure was lol

[@lucutes2936]

isnt this obvious enough lmao

[@raleigh9019]

Cool, but nearly impossible scenarios. Russia wants to minimize its efforts, full scale war is not an option because it would destroy them diplomatically.

[@hansholland5718]

Well, the Thing is it's gone that far - there's no way back! He must continue - otherwise, it results in whether "The Hague" scenario for him (and his friends) or very serious riots in his empire; both he tries to aviod of, at any price! So, expect the unexpected!... ((

[@hansholland5718]

Родерик Рандом What about your nano-technologies, my VERY NICE SMELLING russian friend? :DD PS Are you being paid per hour? Or is it "per word" case?

[@raleigh9019]

Rather per BOLD word : >

[@hansholland5718]

Piotr Błaszkiewicz I'd rather say per CAPITAL one! :D Or maybe a "CapsLock" button is simply... Unknown there !? Tell us, Родерик Рандом!

[@marine4814]

Родерик Рандом anything smart can come out of your vacuumed cranium? guess not..

[@thomaswright4489]

"High Resistance would be expected" Understatement of the decade from 7 years ago haha

[@Vedioviswritingservice]

I vote for the land bridge. Makes the most sense strategically linking Russia with Crimea.

[@gsbetthedoom]

Nice prediction.

[@RK-cj4oc]

@@gsbetthedoom Well no. he was wrong. Russia also tried to take Kyiv and kharkiv. but failed. had they focused on only the land bridge. they might have had enough power to reach odesa. but they failed to take even Mykolaiv.

[@blahbleh5671]

@@gsbetthedoom It was obvious. As soon as Russia took crimea they started running into the problems you would expect from having only a bridge connection to the mainland. Imo the true ideal scenario for russia would have been to annex the whole of the east of Ukraine and leave a puppet in the west. But maybe not, since they did annex Kherson, perhaps they intended to annex the whole country.

[@hemavathikumar9123]

🙄The last part seems to be somewhat inline in what currently is happening. Dam computers are smart !

[@roberttaylor3594]

And now, 7 years later, MAYBE the Crimea-black sea cost might be achievable. Maybe.

[@21boxhead]

THIS DIDN'T AGE WELL

[@joeswanson5486]

8 years ago Ukraine would been rolled over by Russian forces now Ukraine is much much stronger with a large army and 10s of billions in western aid

[@bittertronicus4144]

Stratfor you have forgot one ( and IMHO most possible ) scenario , the one where the situation around Donetsk and Crimea remains mostly as is while an aero-marine invasion is developed on Odesa and the surounding area , the city falls the same day due to the fact that is literally unprotected by heavy troops , and the next two days after some heavy reinforcements the Russians walk towards Hyperdneisteria (the separatist part of Moldova ) where they are waited as liberating heroes from the by 99% Russian speaking population ... So in 3 days they resolve the problem , they get what they want the most since all this has started - yes is the city of Odesa I am talking about , and they remain relatively well protected from all the strategically negative terrain for the invader since the occupation perimeter is a mere 80 miles ...

[@burkanarburky4447]

doesn´t work that way.

[@n2201]

easier option is to blockade the sea. don't need to conquer Odessa

[@blahbleh5671]

ye the whole 3 day thing didn't work out I guess, boy did they try though

[@SaudiHaramco]

Why would Russia invade Ukraine north-west of Kharkiv? In Kharkiv, Odessa, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Mariupol etc. Russia might have a lot of support from the population. In Poltava and west of it though most people hate Russia at the moment.

[@kashmirha]

They explained it: because it would give Russia a river border towards west which is more defendable. And they gave the least probability to that scenario.

[@blagoevski336]

Lol

[@SaudiHaramco]

@@blagoevski336 lol Putin should have listened to me 7 years ago

[@blagoevski336]

@@SaudiHaramco kek true

[@klarion]

Your last scenario doesn't even take into account that the entire eastern part of Ukraine is populated with either ethnic Russians or culturally Russian people and any "insurgency" would be just as much of a minor footnote as it has been in Donetsk/Luganks. In fact, there would probably be a movement to join para-military pro-Russian units.

[@appalachianmountain]

this didn't age well.

[@burkanarburky4447]

no they didn´t do this.

[@editorials512]

This aged well. Interesting that of STRATFOR's estimates, the southern axis of the Russian advance did fail to fulfill it's objective of reaching Transnistria, and the aforementioned eastern exposure discussed along the Kharkiv-Dniepro line both never came into fruition and equally suffered the same issues discussed in the video. Also interesting that STRATFOR's 'recommendation' of sorts was partially followed, with an attempt to seize the east bank of the Dnieper. The fact that Russia failed here really shows how their military strength has long been exaggerated - though understandably.

[@S_Black]

This is also based on Ukraine's 2014/15 performance in the east, which wasn't all that great. They have improved massively since then

[@georgyzhukov6409]

Its only gunna get worse for ukraine. Russia already holds a fifth of the country and hundreds of thousands of more russians are coming. Its essentially Russia vs nato bc of all their billions of our tax payers dollars in advanced weapons and thousands of foreign fighters

[@RK-cj4oc]

​@@BlahBlah-kb1wfHahahaha. No ruski bot. They could not. They could not even hold Kherson city.

[@RK-cj4oc]

@@BlahBlah-kb1wf Hahahaha. Bro are you dumb? Christ you are one heavy ruski bot.

[@blahbleh5671]

@@BlahBlah-kb1wf For the so-called 2nd greatest military power on earth to be ground down to a bloody pulp like this by essentially an unheard-of military...... in this context, yes the Ukrainians have performed exceedingly well. RF could use nukes but will they? No. Stop coping with nuke hypotheticals, or rather, changing the goalposts when clearly they were talking about conventional military forces. You are a ruski bot like the other guy said, change your damn name I don't want to be associated with you.

[@imoneixusa9742]

*Putin was here Decided to combine 2 of the scenarios, take all of Southern Ukraine cutting Ukraine off from the Black Sea, and take everything east of the river, claiming a 20-mile buffer zone on the West Bank of the river, keeping Russian forces stationed on the East Bank but having a no-man's-land in between Ukraine and the river with high-power artillery on the east of the river that will stop any attempted River Crossing by the ukrainians in that 20 mile wide buffer zone

[@JCRF]

Great video, seems to be in order of most likely to least likely too. Well done

[@Strettger]

What would your opinion be now that its happened?

[@ZlobitkoRostak-hp1en]

7 years later, we’re more or less at Luhansk + Crimean landbridge scenario. I wonder why the Ukraine fortifications and minefields were not sufficiently prepared.

[@christopherwang4392]

1:11 to 1:28 In hindsight, Option #2 with a limited offensive capturing Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts would have been the most logistically feasible option for Russia.

[@NadirAgha]

But it was never about Donetsk and Luhansk anyway. It was always about Crimea, where Russian Black Sea Fleet is based and a land-route from mainland-Russia to Crimea. The rest is secondary. The main target for Russia in this war is to secure Crimea and the land-route to Crimea in southern Ukraine, build defensive fortifications, achieve stalemate, and keep what it has. So that, if Ukraine joins NATO, Russia will control its Black Sea access. The same goes for Russia's invasion of Georgia. Why did Russia occupy Abkhasia, but not, for example Adjara. Both regions have access to Black Sea, but Abkhasia's coast is suitable for navy ports, however Adjara's coastline and sea levels are not suitable for navy ships, so it's useless for Russia. So that, if Georgia joins NATO, Russia will control its Black Sea access.

[@gusar190]

Hello from crazy 2022!

[@voyageurastral]

They did all of the option above

[@omarmartimez680]

That's is the correct way make two Ukraine west and east

[@RK-cj4oc]

​@@BlahBlah-kb1wfLads, this is the imperialistic russian brain at work. " ahh just by force split a sovereign nation into 2" No lad. It is not reasonable. And its exactly why Ukraine wants to join Nato, because you morons somehow think you are still the soviet union. Try being better neighbours next time. Alot fewer russians would be in our red light districts sucking on western dicks.

[@br0leg274]

@@RK-cj4ocnot the first time in history when war doesn’t end: Vietnam was splittet and Korea too

[@MrDavePed]

National boundaries which use river ways are never completely stable. They divide a single culture and cause contention where the natural inclination is cooperation. Far far better to use the watersheds to delineate between natural cultural, demographic and topographic basins which serve best to define national identity. Militarily the naturally low population high elevation watersheds provide good ground to make a defensive stand. ..

[@alexeyshierman5023]

One important point is that all this eastern region is full of Russians and Russians Speakers not mentioned in this Video

[@binder946]

It's not in thier agenda.

[@RK-cj4oc]

@@binder946 Because as you can see it doesnt matter.

[@weiyuchen5601]

Prophetic

[@vimukthi.]

Wt hk how do you now about this . Best future predictions

[@mikebertram5219]

Man this better not fuck my plans to visit Chernobyl.

[@altaimountain]

Of course, militarily Russia can take over the whole Ukraine if they choose so, but there is no reason for Russia to do any of those actions. Ukraine will split itself peacefully or not, but Russia won't need to invade it.

[@LucaEnzo]

Analysis shows Russian hardware, not supplied to Ukraine previously, operating inside of the country. Id call this an invasion

[@altaimountain]

LucaEnzo Using your logic I can say the US and a bunch of other Western countries invaded Ukraine from the West.

[@LucaEnzo]

If you insist on using my logic then where are the western made tanks in the east? And if you want to escalate this matter then lets talk about a piece of Ukraine being forcibly annexed.

[@altaimountain]

LucaEnzo Instead of going down that silly road (btw Ukrainian government just announced it will spend a large chunk of IMF money on buying Western arms) I'd pose a couple of simple questions. If Ukraine is invaded by Russia, then why didn't Ukrainian government renounce the Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership agreement with Russia? Why does Ukraine buy gas from Russia? Why does Ukraine supply electricity to Crimea? Why didn't Ukraine file a charge against Russia in the ICJ or UN or any other international organization for annexing Crimea? How come Poroshenko has a thriving chocolate factory in Russia? How come a 20 000 strong Ukrainian military base in Crimea did not put up a fight and instead a whole bunch of Ukrainian soldiers switched sides and joined the Russian army in Crimea? Don't rush, just reflect on it for a while, please.

[@user-qf1pf4fj7e]

LucaEnzo Soviet-made tanks many in Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic and .... This weapon secretly supplied to Ukraine

[@RandomVideos2]

I wonder what country Russia will invade next after this? Maybe referendums in Donetsk, Luhansk, Transnistria, Abkhazia and South Ossetia over the next few years making them all officially Russian territory then build them up with offensive missiles and advanced air defenses. Then weaken the nearby countries through economic warfare, threats, hacking, sabotage, etc. Next immigrate Russian speakers and concentrate them in border areas to start new breakaway regions where Russia must "protect Russian speakers." Continue this process until the Russian Federation reaches the German and Iranian borders.

[@RandomVideos2]

ryelor123 A massive increase in shale gas and oil, nuclear, coal, undersea oil and other alternative energy to cut off Russian exports to Europe. An economic blockade of this sort would decimate the Russian economy. Even China could not offset this if they bought as much oil and gas as possible. The Russian economy is so dependent on Oil and Gas exports to Europe it could be destroyed by cutting them off. Unfortunately, Europe is too addicted to this cheap blood gas and they will continue to fund the Russian war machine until their borders and security are completely compromised. Next we must find a way to stop the coming Chinese "Island Hopping Campaign" where they will take over every island in the South China Sea one by one. The Battle of the Paracel Islands will be repeated on many more islands. They have already made this clear with the "nine dotted line" claim, ADIZs and other claims. Next they will use their economic and military power to force the countries bordering the sea to sign a pact similar to the Montreux Convention in the Black Sea. This will ban most foreign warships from entering the sea and give China compete control of South Asia.

[@Soulcatcher30]

ryelor123 You don't know much about Baltics I see....

[@R3dp055um]

Random Videos My my my, that is a very paranoid scenario. Ask yourself this, how many nations has China invaded or attacked in the last 50 years? How many nations has Russia invaded or attacked in the last 50 years? The answer to both those questions would be 2 or 3, at the most liberal interpretation of the question. Now, how many nations has the USA invaded or attacked in the last 50 years? The answer to this third question would be more than a dozen. So who is, logically, the greater threat to peace?

[@RandomVideos2]

R3dp055um Doesn't really matter to me who's "the biggest threat." I'm not some USA fanatic who thinks America is perfect. I just like to observe the flashpoints in the world and the very aggressive actions of certain states over the past few years. Sure, the island hopping scenario I wrote about might never happen but The Battle of the Paracel Islands certainly did. China has similar claims on many more islands and I don't think it's out of the question that they could repeat that considering the steps they have taken lately like the new ADIZ that covers the Senkaku.

[@R3dp055um]

Random Videos Glad to hear you're not blind. I was referring to your speculations about Ukraine, not trying to defend Chinese aggression in the South China Sea. The Paracels are arguably within China's 200-klick EEC. The Spratlys, however, are twice that distance from Hainan, and Chinese claims are based entirely upon alleged "historical" possession, which is blatant steer manure, I agree.

[@roseforeuropa]

Only OG geostrategy nerds know about this video.

[@OmarMartinez-mm7db]

Now you got the right map east and west ukrania. Looks wonderful

[@JoesWebPresence]

Option 2. Directly resulting from the failure of the next Kiev offensive. pushed from Donetsk and Lugansk districts entirely. Then the people of the area will have drawn the maps. Full autonomy within Ukraine or full independence. It matters not. Either way Kiev will never have authority there again.

[@RK-cj4oc]

Kyiv* Filthy terrorist.

[@JoesWebPresence]

Lol @@RK-cj4oc !

[@RK-cj4oc]

@@JoesWebPresence Sorry mate. icannot hear you over the sound of many dead ruskis.

[@JoesWebPresence]

That's OK RK, they have plenty more. I wonder how many Fighting age Ukrainians are left, or how many majority Russian regions it has left to lose . . . 3? . . . . . Maybe Kiev thinks it can take these regions back, and continue the anti-Russian pogrom they were conducting there since 2014, or perhaps it just wants to nuke its own country now. Judging by the recent number of sackings for corruption, maybe they just want to sell them off to the highest bidder. Hey! Maybe a few dozen second hand MBT's will turn it all around for them, or prehaps those sanctions will finally start to bite! : D

[@rodrigocastillo110]

Jesus this was accurate!

[@republicempire446]

Only it was considered most probable approaches but it goes down to preparations, element of surprise, and coordination to maintain logistics

[@BlackLabelExpat]

I think the most likely case is Russia taking the southern coast because it makes for a well defensible position but also a low ratio of political blow back from NATO/ USA. If they do try and "recover" land, you can bet they will ask themselves the question how much can we wager without the United States getting too involved. Russia was not hit by the 2008 finance crisis the same way the EU was, and now they are not united politically. My guess is that Russia knows it in be better position to make this kind of maneuver now than it will be as time goes on. Matter of fact it will probably only be harder as time goes on.

[@voyageurastral]

Do you think sanction against Russia are working ? Interesting comments to see 6 years later

[@andygass9096]

Pretty good, stood the test of time!

[@afewgoodcollemenmovers8580]

Who is finding this in 2022?

[@user-fr7xl3uq1f]

me

[@stanislavpapushak5562]

I'm from 2035

[@IVAN-zm8pz]

lol im laughing my ass off here watching how they make Russia invading Ukraine such a big deal of strategy. if Russia declared war on Ukraine, i bet not a single Ukrainian would show up for the fight! they would just be like " Fuck it, Take it, you win.

[@empirum]

Which explains why there's so many Ukrainians currently fighting Russian tourists, right? Besides an invasion of Ukraine is a death sentence.

[@DinaricWolf]

Though Russia is militarily capable of annexing all of Ukraine it is unlikely and very dangerous to do that. One obvious problem is the West. You think that the United States and other western powers will just sit there and let Russia take control all of Eastern Europe?

[@StelzCat]

Barrows0re they will. They desperately need a reason to justify their policies and violations of human rights they are hiding ever so carefully and they won't miss any opportunity.

[@Burkutace27]

Never underestimate the fighting spirit of people who's country is being invaded.

[@noahbrooks8939]

Ilya Demochkin you obviously have no knowledge of the History of Ukraine. they are already showing up. Azov battalion will make omelets out of their balls if they take one step towards Mariupol

[@stitch9985]

Taking eastern Ukraine would (if done succesfully) end the civil war and make it possib;le for Ukraine to join the EU. The reason that Russia wants to destabilize the Ukraine is because it doesn't want them to join the european uinion. Best course of action for russia would be to KEEP the area destabilized. (i'd rather see the war end personally)

[@liamfarhan5168]

👍🏼👍🏼

[@SH-lb1nu]

It seems that this is the goal all a long. A globo homo western independent Ukraine and Eastern ethnically Russian Novo Russia.

[@RK-cj4oc]

@@SH-lb1nu Get drafted. your russia failed to take this "globo homo" Ukraine./

[@PearlDpUa]

@@SH-lb1nu we are not "ethnically Russian", there is no even such thing as "Russian nation" because their state are federation and include Chechens and Buryatia. At the 2001 Ukrainian National Census, the ethnic groups within the Donetsk Oblast were: Ukrainians - 2,744,100 (56.9%), Russians - 1,844,400 (38.2%), Pontic Greeks - 77,500 (1.6%), Belarusians - 44,500 (0.9%), others (2.3%).[10] And even if that comment doesn't be a lie, there is don't give any right for some kind of federation slave us or kill.

[@danielefabbro822]

Indeed the Dnepr could be a significant and good position where to stop Russians if they try to take the entire country. From that point, once the Russians loses the initiative in combat, it would be easy to counterattack and retake the country.

[@mr.afrikaans1747]

LOL ‘easy’.

[@kshitijkumar9094]

Yeah man... I don't think that'll work for Ukraine, once they lose the eastern half they won't get it back

[@RK-cj4oc]

@@kshitijkumar9094 Well good thing then that russia was too weak to take it in the first place.

[@kshitijkumar9094]

@@RK-cj4oc good or bad would be a whole other debate but the fact of matter is Russia indeed turned out unable to take it, but the war is still going on who knows what will happen next

[@RK-cj4oc]

@@kshitijkumar9094 Good or bad is not a debate. its good that the filthy ruskis did not manage to take it. the end. The war is stil lgoing on but Russia will not be able to take half of ukraine anymore. rest of Donbass is their best possibility left.

[@guddu6424]

How, you are predicted 😮😮😮?

[@18vladz]

Russia really would invade Ukraine like what he said..i am no military expert, but here is what i think..if EVER Russia move against Ukraine( OWN PEOPLE for 300 years even before the the creation of the USSR) this operation excluding or including the WHOLE SEPARATIST army of Donetsk, i would not simply use RUSSIAN lands as platform of Operation i would USE the same tactic's i used in WW2 and use the entire BELARUS country to move against UKRAINE and invade KIEV because imply moving an entire PLAN OF war is not simply attacking to claim more LAND they have that already, but to MOVE against the complete destruction of the OPPOSING forces which is currently HEADED by KIEV so why do any of these SCENARIO even been taken consider..that is if RUSSIA is stupid enough to do THIS in which event most likely not ever gonna happen... oh WEST powers why do you want such a WW3 event...economy down

[@voyageurastral]

You are a good strategist, they did passed by belarus to push to kiev but it failed.

[@Skydive20991]

Really interesting how the option about the Dombass region actually happened in real life, not with an explicit invasion but with the recognition of a puppet Republic. The most credible action that Russia can make now, believing to the continuing invasion, is the plan explained at 3:15 : atm a major scale invasion like others or the blockade of the Black Sea coastline cutting off Ukraine for me are just too extreme

[@skyguy1236]

wow, this aged well

[@Skydive20991]

@@skyguy1236 like milk hahaha 🤣

[@voyageurastral]

They tried for odessa but failed, its like they watched this video couple of time to try every options

[@velikizmaj8897]

Perhaps an attack from Belarus on Lviv and towards the border with Hungary would have been better, without mercy towards the infrastructure, civilians, army, roads, and that would have cut off the connection with the west and forced Kiev to surrender.

[@RK-cj4oc]

Kinda weird how you spell Lviv correctly with the changed name, but then spell Kyiv as Kiev.

[@blahbleh5671]

I've always found it strange how Russia didn't choose to open up a front from the western side of Ukraine!

[@RK-cj4oc]

@@blahbleh5671 Incapable of doing so. Russia could not even maintain a full front while doing offensives in the early war. Kharkiv happend because of it.

[@blahbleh5671]

@@RK-cj4oc In the initial advance though, maybe they could have occupied Lviv. Then again, they may have thought the roads were in too poor of a condition to support their forces, or they simply thought capturing Kyiv takes priority and would render any other advances moot as the organisational structure of Ukr military forces would collapse.

[@velikizmaj8897]

@@blahbleh5671 They were counting on Soviet feelings and the past. The Russians thought that the people would take to the streets and be like in Crimea. That's why they had as deep as possible penetrations into the territory of Ukraine to reach as many cities as possible. However, they did not properly calculate the mood of the people and the military, which would have happened in 2014 if they had done so. When they started guarding soldiers around civilian targets, they began to make mistakes at the front. In my opinion, a brutal and massive breakthrough into the west of Ukraine without mercy for civilians, infrastructure and the military would end the conflict in 3 to 6 months.

[@andrewtheplayer]

Bruh you guessed it

[@jonnyrawket8158]

Who's watching this in 2019 during the opening stages of the Russo-American War?

[@helpiamstuckonthismanshead3385]

Nope

[@goldman6506]

Funniest comment section of all time

[@rickyjulian2499]

Incredibly childish video

[@Burkutace27]

My irony meter just blew.

[@br0leg274]

Aged well

[@antoniom1352]

You were right about Russia's plan.

[@klarion]

Talk about being behind the curve....

[@binder946]

Well this aged well.

[@Samsv1]

This is only worth considering under the current dynamics of the political situation. Russia's military option would be as swift as the taking of Crimea, at the cost of a changing political situation, at this point you won't be analyzing Ukraine.

[@RK-cj4oc]

Hashahhaaha. so you were wronggggg. it was not swift as taking Crimea. hahahaha Slava ukrainia.

[@Samsv1]

@@RK-cj4oc It's apparent that Ukraine has fought off Russian ideas of Ukraine being a part of the Russian Federation. You could expect that the mustering of forces on the front line of a conflict like this with a superpower would be a difficult idea in of itself to really take hold. Why it is at the whims of the political situation. Which is still true, Russian leaning areas near Russia are on that side of the line right now. I can only imagine how neighbors can deal with one another, but you're related, and many fights of relation turn out amicably, others not at all. I understand though it would likely be difficult with future economic situations, proximity, and issues of ground control in peace or war it's probably for the best they be completely expelled due to animosity and the senseless flag violations over God knows what it amounts to.

[@procopiusaugustus6231]

The Russians would have been better off if they had taken this approach first.

[@rjc071]

I have to admit that this is some of the best Nazi propaganda I have seen since reading Beckhough's memoirs: you Fascists at Stratfor really have a knack for being able to spout shit while having your heads up your colleague's asses. No one wonder there is a toilet paper shortage in North America. Truly, incredible.

[@MrTangolizard]

Toilet paper shortage ? I would say it's russia that's going to have shortages of things soon also if any country is like a nazi country it's russia no free press disabled and gays put in prison annex country's who's the nazi ?

[@rht785]

***** russia is a dictatorship the united states is becoming a police state.

[@Oddme100]

***** North-Korea is like the Nazis. Their political prison camps truly does resemble some of the Nazi camps fro, WW2. Yet, North-Korea and Russia is getting friendly, and Putin and Kim Jong-Un will celebrate the WW2 victory together this year. Ironic, isn't it?

[@grisanea29]

rjc071 Are you member of Putlers propaganda? They accuse everybody of nazism in Georgia in Ukraine in Moldova In Chechen Republik. The only Nazi here are Russians. They attack they kill people.

[@shtakett]

grisanea29 kzbin.info/www/bejne/rZm9iZxojbeDhJI

[@aksmex2576]

So why did this not happen?

[@karloperkovic6710]

The limited scenario did happen, the one where they expand Lughansk and Donetzk republic's control

[@aksmex2576]

Prkissymo WhyDoIHaveToFillThisShit They were saying ti like 100% we are going to see an invasion, just some stupid propaganda

[@TheGoodChap]

Watch their other video wargaming scenario planning Ukraine Russia. They explicitly state that military wargaming is an excercize in determining the capabilities of a country in carrying out logical military scenarios. It's a way of figuring out what they could do, but you have to understand that the entire time you're watching the video, because once they start thinking about it it sounds very matter of fact, as if it's going to really happen when that's not the case at all.

[@IC1101]

Those scenarios require Russia to start a full blown war with Ukraine and that would involve NATO countries. No way Russia will invade whole of Eastern Ukraine. That would be done only out of desperation and anger if Russian economy starts to really suffer.

[@LucaEnzo]

The feckless European powers wouldnt even stop a genocide on their doorstep in the 90s by Milosovics' henchmen. To be honest i dont belive these countries are even concidering the possibility of a Russian agression, despite her previous record

[@RandomVideos2]

Ukraine is not a member of NATO and NATO has no obligation to protect it. I highly doubt NATO is gonna enter WW3 to save Ukraine when a good bit of it is already gone anyway and they've already spent billions to try and save it.

[@artpoirot9574]

That's what they told the Georgians in 08!

[@Davis_237]

***** NATO is not going to war over Ukraine, not unless we take the first step on our own. No it would however force NATO to step up its presence in the Baltic states, Poland in particular, in an effort to block further Russian expansion east. And again, if NATO doesn't, we (America) certainly will...

[@Sergeyspb2009]

Epic example biased by a primitive-surface analysis, probably having to justify catastrophic failures of American advisers working in Ukraine. But justification of American incompetence is made absurd method by ignoring the social facts of mass social approval and mass social support any actions of the Russia in the regions of South-Eastern and Eastern Ukraine. This clumsy attempt of justification proves the fact of U.S. direct participation. The authors try trite to deceive ourselves by ignoring the fact of the predominance of the number of supporters of Russia in South-Eastern population. also to forgotten the fact as Catherine II did accommodation Russian troops in the Crimea during the recognition of the independence of the United States (not now). Only western Ukrainians are more anti-Russian sentiments.

[@wowfubar]

What about going straight for kiev, :)

[@wowfubar]

@J that was silly, happy it's still a beautiful city.

[@malignm1857]

@J silly indeed. Foolish aswell

[@WolfyOfHonor]

Loads my G-36 KA4

[@albertwolanski7688]

You almost got it right.

[@klarion]

Let's put it this way.... the way the Ukrainian army fights (and considering it's sorry state), none of the issues you raise are of any serious consequence to the Russian military at this point.

[@majdibouzidi]

You're totally correct .. An invasion will never happen

[@klarion]

@@majdibouzidi I was totally wrong in that I didn't think something like this would happen in the near decade at the least, but I underestimated our western strategists and how ready Russia was to demilitarize Ukraine.

[@br0leg274]

@@klarion 7 years ago you was right. But In that 7 years they build up an strong military with modern technology and tactics. But i guess without that support it would be over already

[@RK-cj4oc]

@@br0leg274 Without support it would not be over. during the crucial first few months all the units which received western aid were all in Donbass.meanwhile russia also failed in Kharkiv. Kyiv, and Mykolaiv. Without western support Russia would still have failed there. Only in Donbass would they have done better.

[@br0leg274]

@@RK-cj4oc don’t know which information you gathered from but here in the EU it’s clearly said that 70-80% of the Ukraine material is now western. You can also see that in the pro Russian Telega… . They only destroy bushmasters, humvees and other western APC and IFV. The Austrian Highcom is saying that the Ukraine army is now in the 3th set up with the delivery. FYI: kzbin.info/www/bejne/a2XHkqSEp8aArqc

[@sin3369]

Wow alot of there predictions were correct to some fashion.

[@wexting]

They gave possibilities... There is a limited number of options to invade a country. This is what military strategic analysis is for. What the video doesn't account for was the possibility that Russia was so impulsive and self-harmed in their initial attempt.

[@sin3369]

@@wexting what this country or any country? How many limited options? Why so limited?

[@APMI-OFICIAL]

@@sin3369 do you need more evidence?

[@sin3369]

@APMI-OFICIAL would love an updated verson and yes I would! Always willing to learn!

[@APMI-OFICIAL]

@@sin3369 Well, I think that the fact that Russia has been stuck in Ukraine for more than 1 year (we are on our way to the second year and it will probably last 3 at least) is enough to see why in reality the options are very limited, you do it wrong and the wrong thing happens. what is happening

[@piggy8761]

All the comments from years ago…wow

[@davidgalloway45]

I predict a land bridge connecting to Iran ????

[@mohsinshaikh3100]

Wow they knew about this 7years in edvance still kheson fell like lightning fast and donbas is still holding damm

[@user-yv2vz5mb7t]

Good video, now do predicton how Ukraine will invade Russia.

[@wintaaaaa]

Ok well, looks like the first 3 were achieved at the same time, but the last 2 haven't

[@planetsec9]

Not even STRATFOR expected Putin's blunder in Kyiv lol

[@RK-cj4oc]

​@@BlahBlah-kb1wfGo away ruski bot. Losing several thousand men and supplies to random Ukrainian militias while dying in Kyiv is never a " good strategy" and also didnt work. Russia failed at Kharkiv, failed at Mykolaiv, and any landings at Odessa also could not go through. So much for a " succesfull" distraction.

[@alikuk6334]

@@RK-cj4oc ah yeah, ukrocopium

[@derptrolling4740]

They will take all the areas east dnieper river plus Odessa and transnistria. Promise

[@RK-cj4oc]

Hahahahahah.

[@miiiikku]

What is the conflict about?

[@Burkutace27]

Officially it's about western Ukraine wanting close ties with Europe and eastern Ukraine wanting ties with Russia. What most media ins't really talking about is how Russia views this as a threat to their national sovereignty; if Ukraine joins NATO, NATO is now less than 200 miles from Moscow. It's equivalent with Texas joining the Warsaw pact. These days people might no see that as a big issue but keep in mind, Russia witnessed Germany going from a war ravaged bankrupt shell to being at the gates of Moscow in 20 years; the assumption that western Europe won't become aggressive again is one they will not make.

[@Burkutace27]

SirVixIsVexed Ah, yes it is, from a military stand point. I'm not saying what Putin is doing is right, I'm saying that's the Geo-political challenge Russia faces and that's why they're responding this way. They have no geological features in the west to secure their borders; they only thing that has saved them from invasion by Europe is the vast distances. They don't' have those anymore, which is why they're freaking out about the Ukraine. Would this never of happened if Putin wasn't in charge? Maybe. I dunno. What I do know is Russia saw Germany go from being a war ruined wreck to being at the gates of Moscow in a little over 20 years. The assumption that Western Europe poses no threat to them is not one they are going to make. Russia cannot help but expand it's boarders west, and the West cannot help but resist them. That's the Geo-political reality.

[@Burkutace27]

SirVixIsVexed "If someone non-soviet was in power, Russia as a threat would normalize their society and economy and bring the ugly parts out of the dark ages, economically and socially." Possibly. I'm not one for speculation so I'm not going there. "Why? How? This seems to make zero sense. What country has the right to do that?" Were you not paying attention? The Russian frontier is easily traversed by modern armies; there's noting like the mountains and bad lands that secure their eastern territory from Invasion by China or a Pan pacific power. Space is the only defense they have, so their foreign policy is geared to getting and keeping as much as possible. Weather they have the right to do so is irrelevant, they'll do it any way if it means securing their nation. "How daft does that logic sound though, on a national level? I mean what the heck is that thinking? A bit of vodka involved? Extreme paranoia?" It's not daft thinking at all; the memories of Hitler's invasion are very real. If broke all your windows with a golf club one day, you'd start getting nervous if you saw me with one again, even 5 years down the road. The precedent for Russia being invaded by Western Europe has been set twice now; as far as they're concerned the threat is real and they don't care if you think they're being paranoid. The opinion of one man does not even begin to compare to securing your nation's security. "There is no valid reason for Russia to be hostile towards anyone" They believe they have valid reasons, and that's all that matters to them. I don't take the word of news reporters very seriously on these issues at all, nor do I think a different leadership in Russia would act differently. That's the game of geopolitics; hope for the best, plan for the worst. Policies and leaders change, but the indefensible western borders of Russia never change.

[@Burkutace27]

"Many countries have borders that are not good defensive positions in war....but since they aren't obsessed with war, this doesn't matter to them." There is not a country on the planet that is not concerned about boarders and what might happen if war broke out. "Russia hates the west because they're literally a totalitarian regime / mafia who controls a society." That's both not the entire picture, and irrelevant: even if the regime changed why would they trust Europe? Historically they have no reason to trust the Europeans. Napoleon and Hitler both tried to invade their country and came close to succeeding; that's cold hard fact, not propaganda. "If they had non-mafia non-propaganda non-soviet worshiping culture now, they would feel no desire to be a military might or care about being a superpower...like the rest of europe!" You know the reason why Europe doesn't care about Military power and global influence anymore? Because they lost MILLIONS of their own people in two wars which they are responsible for, and the fact that none of them can match the US. They go along with the US because it's easy, not necessarily because they like them. But even then European countries still care about military power and Global influence; France in particular was heavily involved in Libya and Mali. "I'm not sure if you read that I said those vice dispatches ARE NOT a news anchor, and are all candid." I don't care if they're candid because I don't care about what's happening on the small scale or the nature of the Russian Regime. I care about the big picture, because that is what matters.

[@Burkutace27]

SirVixIsVexed "Dumb answer, none of them act like war obsessed Russia about their borders and you know that" So why does the united states have their largest military base close to the Mexican border? Why does my country (Aus) ally itself with the dominant naval power even though it means getting dragged into wars that have nothing to do with us? Why does China obsess over Taiwan and other US allies that surround it? Countries care about their boarders and their response is gauged according to the potential threat. Australia doesn't care about the threat of a Brazilian invasion because the means to do so is Beyond them. On the other hand, the invasion of Russia from the west is a very real prospect, therefore they respond to it aggressively. " Napoleon and hitler might come back from the dead and run towards moscow? Do you not understand how ridiculous that is?" Funnily enough I never suggested such a thing would happen, I brought them up to make a point: Russia has been invaded twice by western European powers. That is a fact. Why the hell would they make the assumption that a Western European power will not threaten them again? THAT is asinine my friend. "Thinking that your country "has no reason to trust the europeans" because of napoleon and hitler is asinine!" No it isn't, not as far as Russia is concerned. They have been invaded by Western European powers twice in their history, and they have an indefensible western border. That is not asinine, that is responding to historical precedent and geological reality. " Europe has human rights, russia has state controlled media, the iron curtain, and the fucking berkut, and much more evil." Again, the nature of the Regimes is irrelevant; a different regime of the one you suggest would have the same reason to trust Europe as the current one. Russia does not view itself as European and European nations do not view Russia as European. "Are you blind or just a russian sympathizer?" Funnily enough I'm not; Frankly I don't Putin or his domestic polices. I think the Kremlin to be too conservative and regressive. That being said, I understand why Putin is responding the way he is; the history of Russia and their poor geological defenses in the west show that. Understanding why Putin is responding the way he is is not in any way the same as supporting him.

[@Djura1]

Этому видео точно 8 лет?) Они всё знали?

[@rht785]

i think its too late for russia to do that it was feasible at the beginning of the conflict.

[@blue_ivez2222]

unless of course, they invade again oh well, still not feasible apparently lol

[@kuzeydemir910]

wouldn't russia start ww3 by doing that im saying wouldn't because of crimea

[@rodrigocastillo110]

Five years later, hope not bro

[@bandelebid]

Has anyone acknowledged that you were correct?

[@blahbleh5671]

I guess this was all very predictable. After all, geography does not change.

[@GavinEngel]

My 2 cents... I don't believe Russia will do any of these options. The rebels with subtle Russian support seems to be unbeatable--they are too nimble. I don't think Putin will lose patience with watching Russian-speaking rebels slowly winning at relatively little cost. He's too smart to end a good thing when he sees it. At some point the rebellion will achieve its goals of a breakaway nation, and the rebels might want to settle down ... things might change then if Putin thinks he can quickly rile them up again for a final rush to Moldova.

[@kshitijkumar9094]

Well...

[@adamradziwill]

Mосковская империя должна распасться т к смысла в ее существовании нет. Нынешняя элита Неспособна на Реформы, общество неспособно на революцию, поэтому будет продолжаться гниение, которое закончится распадом, т к и затяжное гниение тоже всех утомит. Сегодня московская імперія занимает первое место в мире: ■ по уровню умышленных убийств; ■ по числу курящих детей и подростков; ■ по числу взяток при поступлении в вузы; ■ по темпам роста табакокурения; ■ по аварийности на дорогах; ■ по смертности от самоубийств среди подростков 15-19 лет; ■ по абсолютной величине убыли населения; ■ по количеству самоубийств среди пожилых людей; ■ по числу разводов и количеству детей, рожденных вне брака; ■ по числу детей, брошенных родителями; ■ по смертности от заболеваний сердечно-сосудистой системы; ■ по числу пациентов с заболеваниями психики; ■ по объемам торговли людьми; ■ по количеству абортов и материнской смертности; ■ по объёму потребления героина; ■ по потреблению спирта и спиртосодержащей продукции; ■ по продажам крепкого алкоголя; ■ по темпам прироста ВИЧ-инфицированных; ■ по количеству авиакатастроф (в 13 раз больше среднемирового уровня); ■ по числу миллиардеров, преследуемых правоохранительными органами; With cost of “black gold” at 15-23 dollars per barrel, the USSR economy collapsed, and the sovok itself collapsed, and the "golden" horde ("russia") budget can only be fulfilled only with oil price at $ 42.4 and higher

[@sergeimartynov7355]

How about sending a few old jets to the rebels ? Russia hasn't done that yet, not even helicopters...

[@myteksp]

Not biased title. At all.

[@ddcgjrii4972]

What I’m the world

[@iosifstalin6788]

The plan we have in mind you will understand once it is done. Pretty much like with Crimea.

[@marshalbali]

This...

[@vimukthi.]

This All plan in past ?

[@RK-cj4oc]

Good plan bro.

[@vinllga]

'Ukraine" means "at the edge" "у края" or "near border" That term firstly used for some edge areas of zaporizhsky cossacks, that were military villages, free from Rzeczpospolita and Moscovy tsardom both. But territory of central (malaya) Rus' with Kiev wasnt 'Ukraine". Only at 17 century with the help of Rzeczpospolita the central metropolitan Russia (Malorossija) became to called as 'Ukraine" (non officially). Official, church, literary name of Kiev Rus' was Malorossia that was bring from greek-bysantine geografical norms Micro Russia (metropoly) in opposite the Great Russia (colonial) Analogy as central (small)Greece and colonial (big) Greece. Or like opposition- central (small) Paris and Big Paris. So Russia is the the true name of so called "Ukraine". Ukranians are Russians and Ukraine is Russia more first than Russia itself.

[@ostapibrahimovicbender1682]

3:47 - самый вероятный вариант танкового наступления и граница по Днепру

[@ArmaniFlyHigh]

i dont think so...it is not logic in any way in the near future..

[@JohnOh0701]

I'd say we should position a carrier battle group in the Black Sea, and allow the german to launch second operation Barbarossa.

[@azizjanem418]

Everyone know half Ukraine is Russian ethnic speaker

[@RK-cj4oc]

And that does not change anything.

[@barreloffun10]

Russian-speaking Ukrainians are still Ukrainians.

[@RK-cj4oc]

@@BlahBlah-kb1wf Begone ruski bot. If they ever were the same people they now no longer think so. No, the US did not demand militairy infrastructure. Ukraine as a sovereign country is allowed to join amy defensive militairy alliance, the end. If you cannot understand that, its because your rotted russian brain is too far gone from propaganda. At work we have 4 ukrainian refugees. 2 from Zaprorizia, 1 from Odesa, 1 from Sumy. All of them think of themselves as only Ukrainian. All of them hate Russia, and none of them will speak the russian language anymore. And when this war is over all of them will return to their husbands fighting against their russian enemies, after we, their western brothers shelterd them from your brutal and undeserved war and they will be our allies, our blood, our family. And you will be alone with that Dictator in Minsk. If they ever were russian, Putin made sure they no longer are.

[@barreloffun10]

@@BlahBlah-kb1wf 🤡

[@dewzahundred]

No money

[@user-bo7ed8lh4t]

всем мира любви и кило пиченек ) расслабьтесь жить в мире интереснее )

[@jean-lucchevrier2371]

Nice video! Is there one about reconquest of North America by secession states? Fun too!

[@cyka7705]

what the fuck

[@user-qb8fp8oj1p]

Prophecy

[@republicempire446]

Not prophecies, concidences

[@miguelb.655]

The most likely scenario if US/NATO don't take action.

[@MrMuaythai84]

we started it HOW DARE RUSSIA excerise their military and flex its muscle how DARE RUSSIA

[@wexting]

Kill people

[@choadatiostoad415]

Krem ( Crimea ) is part of Russia not Ukraine. It was illegally given to them by the Ukrainian born Soviet premier Khrushchev. Its been part of Russia for hundreds of years.

[@DavidJGillCA]

That may be true in a sense, but many territories in the world have multiple legitimate claimants so that is hardly sufficient justification. The problem with Russian annexation of Crimea is how they did it not that they have no legitimate claim to it.

[@cianakril]

Russia took Crimea in a matter of hours without a single shot fired with 2/3 of the Ukrainian military in Crimea joining the Russian ranks and the rest 1/3 was basically dismissed like it belonged to Russia anyways, like you know, "take your belongings and go home, and don't forget your spathiphyllum". The only "problem" I see with "how they did" is that it was the most cleanest, swift and bloodless takeover in the world history. And yeah, the most surprising despite being the most obvious and declared beforehand.

[@antskilu1354]

ukrain it self has significant air defence and russia has to bomb all airfields almost at same time ,some of these lay near nato borders or all hard work is usless, russia lacks good pilots ,very unlikly they waste their pilots in light that china anounced that crimea is subject of negotiations. also thay cant take cityes without heavy bombings witch add popularity even more of their future cityzens . imagine if u traveled somwhere and came back and then u face fact tat u are not ukrainian citizen but u have to take russian passport By force. lul , taking is easyer than keeping and they already dont wanna pay price, watched russian bank website where is gold/valuta reservs and decline is 500 mio per day, dow fresh money flows in constantly. :( bit utopistic cenarios .but good work enyways.

[@MrLegaCY.]

#2023

[@adamradziwill]

With cost of “black gold” at 15-23 dollars per barrel, the USSR economy collapsed, and the sovok itself collapsed, and the "golden" horde ("russia") budget can only be fulfilled only with oil price at $ 42.4 and higher

[@fiatlux4058]

87$ for brent and gas high as f&#k. No one can stop Russia now

[@andorka842]

Ukrajna! Szekond waar Moldávia!

[@ivangeorgievski854]

😭😭😭

[@whynot-tomorrow_1945]

I would go with the method described at 1:28 It would be advantageous to establish an easily defensible position in conjuncture with the garrison in Crimea. Future operations could be conducted quickly, eventually culminating in the capture of Odessa, which could be achieved via amphibious assault. The economic strangle-hold placed on the Ukrainian government would encourage the cessation of hostilities in its eastern territory. Any resistance could be met by pincer movements from the north and south. But hey.....that's just me : ) Insurgency is so damn annoying these days : \ As is nuclear war : ( Ugh......nothin' but nostalgia for the days of the blitzkrieg....

[@hamblepoint]

Give it another 18 months (from March2015) and the majority of Ukrainian citizens will perform another Maiden to rid the country of the fascist oligarchs and opt for option 3

[@MrPloopi]

well none of these scenarios happened to become true and probabaly never will, so what is the meaning of these video besides from imagining Russian full scale war options and make fear of Russia rise to legitimate more US involvement in the region?

[@1952JBoy]

Lol this aged well

[@MrPloopi]

@@1952JBoy lol, even yesterday I still wasn't believing in a full scale attack. My bad!

[@1952JBoy]

@@MrPloopi no worries, i think the invasion took all of us by surprise!

[@APMI-OFICIAL]

not only did russia invade, but it was a failure

[@SupremeCannon1965]

Russia could read maps too, as it turned out.

[@LanceAlot-ku1sy]

Putin read maps but underestimated his enemy

[@SupremeCannon1965]

Wars start and most plans get changed. It is what it is.

[@LanceAlot-ku1sy]

@@SupremeCannon1965 Putin should have kept his soldiers home

[@SupremeCannon1965]

@@LanceAlot-ku1sy Oh well, too late now. Russia will win - whatever that looks like - then his soldiers can go home

[@johnnybozic7450]

omg cant hear the message over that intense smacking. but even besides that this is just the obviuous stuff which everyone knows by watching news. just go play outside guys instead of playing military strategy experts.

[@wojciechj2467]

Who wanna bet which one will hit now? I would say non of above. 🇷🇺 is never that strong yet not as week as one would like or fear

[@greenpulseeducation5002]

Me. Last option plus the entire south B plan.