WARNING: Goldman Sachs Thinks This Will Happen To The Stock Market

[@wdeemarwdeemar8739]

Goldman said 6 % in 2024 but it returned almost 23% they could not predict a birthday if they were given 364 chances.

[@chrisj8764]

Short term vision - so you know better than Goldman huh?

[@Melior_Traiano]

@@chrisj8764 Noone can predict the future, I don't care who you are. You might as well ask a Romanian woman with a crystal ball what the future looks like.

[@gregoneill990]

Brilliant comment 😂

[@spartacusptolemaida]

Set up a direct debit. Don't even care what Goldman says. Don't check your portfolio. Enjoy your life.

[@jamesfraser1622]

Yep, £200 a month on the 1st of every month and I forget about it

[@Armwrestler135]

Do you invest in vusa?​@@jamesfraser1622

[@chobychapman]

Amen

[@CurieBohr]

Facts.

[@maltesetony9030]

Good advice - but I just can't resist checking my portfolio!

[@ploppy193]

My advice, ignore the noise.

[@NoahNollens]

Biggest lesson i learnt in 2024 in the stock market is that nobody knows what is going to happen next, so practice some humility and low a strategy with a long term edge.

[@BrigetGstar]

Uncertainty... it took me 5 years to stop trying to predict what’s about to happen in market based on charts studying, cause you never know. not having a mentor cost me 5 years of pain I learn to go we’re the market is wanting to go and keep it simple with discipline.

[@SophieLoschy]

Could you kindly elaborate on the advisor's background and qualifications?

[@BrigetGstar]

Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Julianne Iwersen-Niemann” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.

[@SophieLoschy]

She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search on her name and came across her website… thank you for sharing.

[@5packsabs]

Even the base of nature, quantum particles act random

[@CurieBohr]

Just invest. IGNORE Goldman ball Sachs

[@stevenwallace3786]

Goldman ball sachs 😅😅

[@Maximetony]

@@stevenwallace3786😂😂

[@matthewpack6511]

😂

[@religdeb]

😂😂😂

[@jamiebennett1989]

Hahaha 🏆 comment of the day award for you

[@santhu457]

Such a calming voice and content... so consistent in your views in all your videos!

[@256mo]

The real question is: what is Goldman Sachs angle in trying too make believe you investing is bad?

[@shabayaba123]

So they can buy low

[@1292liam]

@@shabayaba123 good shout

[@DeviousDumplin]

Professional managers tend to issue bearish analysis because they want to sell their non-market-correlated financial products. It's why so many of the most famous investment managers are always bearish, but wrong. They want to make investors think that indexing is *over* and the only way to make a return is through active management.

[@troygardner8870]

It's to scare retail investors

[@joshr920]

So any negative predictions are them trying to scare people away from investing? No. The US market has bad decades every so often. This might be one of them for the reasons they list.

[@naomipaul9194]

Tactic to reduce and discourage retail investors! Set-up a direct debit and DCA well PCA.

[@pmason6076]

I believe this is their game too!

[@bobdigi500]

I trust financial institutions as much as i trust politicians. If they ever tell the truth it's by accident!

[@trickydicky90]

Goldman said in 2007 before the largest crash in history that the market was going full steam ahead. In other words, Goldman have no better guess than shaking a dice or tossing a coin.

[@richardwhite1120]

We must also remember that some people have predicted 15 of the last 9 recessions. Ignore the noise.

[@toom2141]

The question is: What is the intention of Goldman Sachs to release such a marketing blabla..? what do they want to sell to potential customers when saying the return will be around 3%?

[@TobyNewbatt]

Well I am sure that they will convince people they know where the bigger returns will be. They have to try and justify their fees and stay relevant in the media

[@wl660]

@@TobyNewbattExactly this. ALWAYS ask the possible motivation behind people with money in the game. PLUS - why would people invest and pay fees with GS if they will gain nothing. Smells fishy to me.

[@wl660]

Can I double like this video? 🤓

[@nitroformula05]

@@toom2141 private markets.. equity and credit..

[@BaileyMxX]

@@wl660 because if you're paying high fees it's generally active management rather than passive indexing so you'd be expecting them to find the diamonds in the rough that outperform rather than their given 3% numerical return from s&p500

[@adamwilliams2936]

Always be buying into a well diversified index fund portfolio, never interrupt compounding by selling and don't pay attention to the naysayers. Killing it since 2015, thanks for the reminder and your content sir!

[@roberthem5216]

Best level-headed reasoned eloquent content on investing. A delight to watch. ❤️

[@1292liam]

he's very good

[@danielhoulton6423]

When you consider how easy it is to jump in and out of a stock these days, looking at historical data pre “easy exit”… probably skews the behavioural data significantly

[@derekrequiem4359]

Who else is still gonna invest in the S&P 500? 🙋‍♂

[@Jamie-fo8fe]

Got 760 shares and I’m not planning to stop anytime soon 👍🏼 📈

[@antonjones3753]

Ive just started out I'm a complete beginner I've started just investing in s and p 500 I'm just gonna carry on with it I think

[@iangreenstreet1407]

Economists are great at explaining the past but have no clue regarding the future- for many of the reasons you have mentioned

[@Abdul_Rahman86]

One way to look at it is that the stock market is over valued. The other way is that I am allocating a portion of my money into the most successful, valuable, innovative companies in the world.

[@nitroformula05]

I agree Toby, past performance is no indicator of future performance… in financial markets…. Where I think past performance is an indicator of future performance, is human behaviour, which you touched on when considering future GDP. Again, I agree companies and markets have changed over the years, former behemoths considered too big to fail/will be here forever, did fail and are now gone… the same will likely happen with companies around today, at a different pace but will happen. Whatever the performance of a company, the data and analysis from the geniuses at GS, JPM etc the one thing we can depend on is the irrational nature of human beings. With markets/PE’s so high, so much bearish analysis/news around, inevitably there will be some trigger that pushes investors to panic and sell… and thus the market falls… when?.. today, tomorrow, next year??? who knows, but it will happen, it is inevitable.

[@petermackay3591]

It would be interesting to see a video of you imprinting the previous 10 years performance of the magnificent 7 over the future 10 years and see how much they would be worth, how much market share they would have, price to earning etc. I think if people looked at this data then they would see that the current performance is unlikely to continue in the same way. Great content as always.

[@mccannger]

If in doubt, do nout! Just sit on your hands and get on with life, there’s more to it than the market. That said, there have been lost decades in the market, most recently from 2000-2010 (ish). So to my mind the best approach is reflect on your investor objectives, things like risk capacity and appetite. Then have your portfolio set up appropriately. If we do get a lost decade, you’re set up for it; if we don’t, you’re set up for that, too. One other bit of wisdom: “more money has been lost waiting for a crash than in them”. Not being invested in some capacity is a certain road to ruin through inflation! Happy investing!

[@kippsguitar6539]

"that said" oh dear

[@andrewkingdon2000]

Well said sir! The simple truth is buy good companies.

[@uncountableuk]

What's a good company to buy today that will outperform the market over the next ten years?

[@Broatch6]

And … Don’t over-pay. Do nothing .

[@DFasey]

Excellent video! Great insights about thinking reasonably! Thanks

[@philboyce1582]

That in my view means GS are a buyer and want the market down a bit…..

[@brogenville]

History has shown them to be manipulative cunts. So yes. I agree.

[@shabayaba123]

Goldman Sachs, the firm that virtually collapsed in 2008

[@TobyNewbatt]

Ahhhh I forgot that part in my script

[@lyberopa]

My advice, forget the balance sheets, the forecasts and other ramblings. Base your trading on being patient for specific setups that offer a promising risk to reward relative to your capital exposure, good money management and be in tune with the markets ebbs and flows such as when trends are at risk....

[@billykotsos4642]

I buy global stocks and gold. Either way I win. Easy peasy invest in ETF and forget. Get your ISAs in order and youre good

[@meinages]

Just keep buying, it'll be for sale for a while if this comes to fruition 👌

[@abeliera]

Where can you get Goldman Sachs report?

[@TobyNewbatt]

It's behind a paywall for professional clients so I'd also like a full copy but I don't have it

[@desib6596]

Great content as always Toby 👍🏽

[@TobyNewbatt]

Much appreciated

[@1292liam]

great video Toby. If US interest rates go lower IE lower than any 'baked in' levels that the market (already) expects, then surely the stock market (the S&P) will have another decent year .. and if all is reasonably well in 2025 (with the US economy), that will continue in 2026 as well. As you say, stoking uncertainly makes Goldman, as a broker, more money (so its best to largely, or entirely, ignore them, and the other 'noise makers'

[@BaileyMxX]

Barring a big dip come end of year, just remember Goldman Sachs said we would have a 5% return (6% with dividends) in the S&P this year (2024)...

[@1292liam]

amazing what utter horse dung, they talk

[@BaileyMxX]

Analysts were saying the same over a decade ago, vanguard 2 years ago had US large caps at returning low single digits yet the last 2 years have seen double digit returns. No one knows what the future holds but literally the same things have been said every year. If it concerns you then diversify across a range of differing assets and differing geographic markets.

[@chavocanuck]

If a prognosticator is bearish, and then turns out to be wrong, people rarely hold that against them since they are happy with the positive surprise...set expectations low.

[@paulturner4419]

Eventually valuations matter just nobody knows when.

[@conorturton]

And how many times in the past have they and other institutions said the same only for it not to happen?

[@Aenion11]

Best example is the reason they give for daily oil price changes: Oil price up? Oversupply Oil price down? Middle East tensions

[@uncountableuk]

I didn't use Goldman Sachs advice over the last ten years, and probably won't over the next ten either.

[@valerienewbatt9678]

So interesting as always Toby

[@pascalschmid4555]

Love it!

[@jamessmithson-br7rm]

GS want their fees, less money to be made if people are piling into passive index trackers 😅

[@SteveTurnbull666]

Don’t ignore the gold rush, Theres a reason institutions are filling up. Market is due a significant correction, lots of wars and potential more wars developing, us elections etc. long term investments should be fine but could be a bit rough over the short term in the coming months, hold on to your hats and keep some powder dry for potential bargains

[@Cajundaddydave]

Yep Toby, they said the same thing 10 years ago and boy were they wrong! I didn't follow their "expert" advice then and I don't plan to follow it now. I do think that spreading investments over money market, bonds, and US stocks is still the best plan as all of our crystal balls are effectively opaque. Choose the mix of these that suits your volatility tolerance and timeline. Two other points to consider as we look forward: - The US national debt is eye watering and recent interest rate hikes have caused interest payments alone to become the 2nd highest line item in the federal budget. This is unsustainable and I expect a gradual easing of interest rates and monetary policy to allow higher inflation. It is a very time tested way many governments have used to "inflate" their way out of crushing national debt with a hidden inflationary tax of around 5% rather than raising tax rates over the screaming of voters who want lower taxes. As a result I expect money market rates and bond interest to fall over time as inflation rises. - Productivity has risen exponentially since the invention of the steam engine as more work can be accomplished by each individual worker. This has driven GDP forward and is the secret sauce to index funds as productivity increases drive the GDP upwards. I expect automation and perhaps AI to continue this trend of exponential GDP growth, at least in the US. There will be ups and downs, bull markets and bear markets, and variable P/E ratios over time but in the long run, index funds still look like a place I want to be over the next 10 years and more. Cheers!

[@TobyNewbatt]

Great thoughts Dave and thank you for watching

[@MattMcQueen1]

Good video. You make great comments about how we cannot predict market returns over any period of time. The 3% per annum prediction by Goldman Sachs may well not turn out to be true. Yet, how many times do we see KZbin videos or comments elsewhere stating as fact that the S&P 500 will return a given percentage per annum, often quoted as greater than 10%? Ultimately, I don't think any of this is predictable, just as no-one was predicting Japan's lost decades when they were enjoying the performance of the stock market in 1989.

[@rainerguenzel7802]

Would a „quality“ filter be a better option than world ETF?

[@StopDropandRoll17]

Question: assuming a 10 years investment, Would it be better to invest in a savings account that gives you a 5% yearly paid daily, or an ETF accumulation that performs an average of the 3% per year?

[@hurlentropy6866]

I also think we'll get more flash crashes going forward.

[@Albert87nl]

When in doubt. zoom out!!

[@terryjones9987]

The ai bubble is comparable to oil. (work done) since it can replace human power (like oil replaced horse power) and hence tricky to try and compare to anything else. Add to that the amount of dodgy money that has been printed. The s&p when ployed on linear axis , becomes a straight line. That all said caution is needed

[@tomw485]

If we average 3% only stock returns per year over the next 10 years rate of inflation will be way lower than it is now.

[@Boghopper9999]

Indeed, everything is relative

[@kippsguitar6539]

That's a funny prediction

[@Bilobatron]

Goldman ball sacks, simply do the opposite of the giant vampire squid.

[@DanRobards]

World index bros never stop winning

[@lunes-1]

Agreed 👍🏾

[@SteveKestin]

Great video Toby Small error after 23 second Toby. Graphic says 2014 to 2014 👍😀

[@CoolSocialist]

*This is why you diversify in multiple different index funds not just the s&p 500...*

[@kippsguitar6539]

No it's not, it's why you don't listen to pump and dump merchants like Goldman, people have been screaming they will rotate out of the USA for 2 years and were completely wrong

[@smithers4420]

If you had done that over the past few years you likely missed out on a lot of money. The truth is sometimes diversify in different funds pays off and sometimes it doesn't.

[@kippsguitar6539]

@@smithers4420 as munger said , "diversification is for people who don't know what they are doing" but for the average Joe it's the safest, people concentrated in tech have made a life changing fortune however and I can't see that changing anytime soon, along with an explosion in biotech

[@kippsguitar6539]

@@CoolSocialist cool specialist in what I wonder

[@joaor.8780]

Great content. Onpoint. Keep up.

[@1292liam]

he's the best at calming investors and 'would be' / upcoming investors.

[@davidjones4130]

Just the s&p not everything

[@TobyNewbatt]

Sure, but if the overall market is down the amount of winners will be very small :)

[@TheSilvercue]

Is investing in US treasury or bonds, just lending money to the government or organisation for a guaranteed % return? Effectively us lending them money?

[@DrHughMonguscoque]

Google what GS was saying in 2013/2014. Ignore the analyst DCS and BtDF

[@bulltraderpt]

Actually you can time certain markets, hence why Jack D. Schwager has interviewed many people who can do exactly that by making great timing calls.

[@YoStu242]

If enough people believe that something told will happen it will happen

[@notwkrail]

If you build it they will come

[@LAH92]

Goldman Sachs also said Bitcoin is a poor investment..... oooooooh how wrong were they 🤔🤔

[@TheSilvercue]

Dollars used to b backed by gold, they are not now. Apples and oranges

[@owb1979]

Wealth management business says you should pay them more money - gotcha

[@TobyNewbatt]

Always more! 😂

[@radders6569]

Analysts always review their expectations. So its not a final thought

[@kirsten121]

I'd be delighted if the stock market was low for the next 10 years. I like to buy my stocks when they're on sale!

[@Swipe650]

I wouldn't, I'm retired

[@BaileyMxX]

​@@Swipe650 you've benefited from the longest bullrun in history the past 15 years then

[@jimspencer3072]

VWRP to mitigate?

[@TobyNewbatt]

Globally diversified set of investments...what more can you do :)

[@jimspencer3072]

@@TobyNewbatt Sounds like a plan, I'm well into it and it's doing me well so far

[@roughtraveller7002]

GS is like Jim Cramer.

[@musheopeaus4125]

GS went bust and had to be bailed out they didn’t see that coming

[@moonie_fpv]

I don't know what will happen as much as the next person, but i've diversified my portfolio a little more. A little less US, more All World and a bit more in Europe and UK. It's still US heavy to the tune of 60%, but what can you do. I already have a lot of VUAG and VWRP and I'm not rebalancing it or selling it to alter the weighting of the positions. Aside from that, if it tanks, it tanks. Nothing I can do to stop it or change the outcome. I can only hope to counter it a little by putting more money in other places.

[@porschecarreras992cabriole8]

I am already maxing my pension now need to max my ISA too😃

[@doublevisio]

I'll stick with Global ETFs

[@kippsguitar6539]

Bet they don't beat USA, the most efficient and liquid market by a mile

[@beresd]

Don't they say the same thing every few years?!

[@bluebrakes]

"Nobody Knows If A Stock's Going Up, Down Or **** Sideways, Least Of All Stockbrokers. But We Have To Pretend We Know." Mark Hanna.

[@jmcooney2000]

Thanks for the info, saves the rest of us a lot of time! Regular drip feed into the S&S ISA wins every day 👌

[@AndySmartInvesting]

My question is though… who do we think will be the Nokia of 2024 a decade from now? 😂

[@TobyNewbatt]

Hahah and THAT is the million dollar question

[@chavocanuck]

​@TobyNewbatt along those lines, it seems certain companies dominate the S&P for a decade or two until there is a "changing of the guard" I feel like the change in dominance happens more in waves from time-to-time, rather that slowly, steadily, as would be the default assumption. Haven't seen any analysis on this.

[@TobyNewbatt]

@@chavocanuck It's just not that simple nor is it predictable..which is the whole point :) - anything can happen. Nokia, Blackberry and Xerox are all still around today, just not as big

[@sharktc]

tottaly unrelated to the news reported in your video hhaha but did you get a new screen?

[@ptb2008]

The worry is when you look at the charts from early 2000 Dow, Nasdaq or S&P and look how many years it took to get back up to the peak again. Are we gonna have that again this time around? Time will tell.

[@DogScreenTV]

Ignore everything and carry on the same

[@pacpern9988]

Sell GS stock first then. What garbage they spout

[@TobyNewbatt]

lol

[@ianfraser4]

Toby, you say this report won’t change how you invest, but can I ask you,if you were now at the stage of drawing down on your investments to provide an income would you then change what you are investing in? Ie change to income stocks rather than growth stocks? Thanks in advance.

[@TobyNewbatt]

@@ianfraser4 great question Ian. Yes of course when in retirement you need to think differently. My plan would be to hold around 2/3 years of cash in high interest/ money market funds. The rest remains invested in low cost index funds. Moving from ‘growth’ to ‘income’ stocks is a false economy. We will have decades left to invest in just invest in the total market.

[@daveandjanwoolf8078]

I find this information from GS being as useful as a CHOCOLATE TEAPOT!

[@SupermanOG]

Vanguard said that about the last 10 years ?

[@TobyNewbatt]

Yep….it was something I mentioned in the video

[@billykotsos4642]

That report is pure clownshow

[@andy_ppp]

I bet the S&P returns more than any of Goldman’s wealth management strategies 🤷🏻‍♂️

[@HDB1974]

Goldman: corporate profits is likely to decelerate...*translation* Goldman thinks corporate price gouging and shrinkflation has hit saturation point and will plateau. Meanwhile.... Corporations: hold my beer.....

[@Joe-x4l3u]

I feel like we are kind of in a similar place with AI companies though, I hope I'm wrong

[@hlaw1984]

Good analysis, thanks. These companies are after all just stockbrokers (though they like being called bankers). They don’t really care where the stock market is heading. They only care about you keep having trades and portfolio turnover. You may time the market wrong or just gotten eaten up by commissions. They look for the next Ferrari with the commissions we paid.

[@1292liam]

spot on

[@philipshore6924]

The best way to make money in investing is to take a small percentage from a lot of people at regular intervals. Everthing else is marketing to manipulate your behaviour.

[@kingarthur7250]

Invest..low cost indexes..gorget about it..cone back in ten years.

[@jackb5640]

Is this the company who were heavily implicit in causing the 2008 global financial crash? (And never saw it coming).

[@JonM-ts7os]

Japan had a lost decade or two so not that far fetched. The question is, whats the move in this case?

[@TobyNewbatt]

Diversify. Why would you only ever own a tiny part of the market? 😀

[@Oldyellowbrick]

It’s almost as if Goldman Sachs want to manage your money for you

[@Thaitanium73]

They completely ignore the emergence of hyperscalers

[@r1pperuk]

What they are missing is every day more people are finding out about stocks now its super easy to invest on your phone into Roths and ISAs. So i reckon we good for the standard 10%. Thanks for the advise but NO.

[@HypaxBE]

The further predictions are made into the future, each year the error rate of their prediction compounds. Therefor the further in the future, the more inaccurate. Not saying it can't happen, but less and less likely. On a more personal note, I don't even bother if it's 2 or 3 years into the future at all for any subject

[@wallace-bv4rl]

I’m relatively recently retired. Given sequencing risk and my experience of the recent (2 years ago?) market drop I have been tempted to buy an annuity. In my situation I feel right now I “have enough”. And the fear is over-riding greed. Anyway not sure if that’s different enough to go against your advice which is good!! I feel a bout of over thinking coming on!! Thank you

[@SteveTurnbull666]

looks like Goldman Sachs might actually be on to something..

[@TobyNewbatt]

Steve I hope you aren't basing a red day in the stock market as proof of any predictions :P

[@SteveTurnbull666]

@ haha no just the overall picture of what is happening currently in the world with debt levels and wars and borrowing costs. It just all feels pretty unstable right now, doesn’t take much to upset the market

[@lewisgreenard3128]

Buy TSLA

[@Random-ne3ed]

VT & Chill. But really the worlds apart stuff doesn't really fly for me. We have extended cape data that goes back to the 1800's and it shows the same exact trend and market average for valuations and PE ratios. How is just a few decades ago a world apart from today, but 1800 to 1990 the same story?

[@TobyNewbatt]

How can you compare the PE ratio of an oil company to a global software company? You can't - which is why you cannot compare a 1900 company with a 2024 one in that simple way - nothing says the 'median average' PE has to remain at an average level from any set date. If it was a useful metric nobody would have invested for decades.

[@luisguerreiro71]

The S&P 500 was introduced in 1957 , so you did got the time machine and went back to 1930

[@TobyNewbatt]

That's correct, that older date before then is a composite as the indexes did not exist :)

[@trickyrat483]

The data exists for companies prior to 1957, so the market valuations are derived from those values using what "would have been" in the S&P500 before it was formally created. See the CS (now UBS) Yearbook for details.