Wax Is A Bad Investment

My thoughts as to why buying and holding sealed wax is a losing proposition right now. There are exceptions, but for the most part the deck is stacked against you.
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[@nakpackrips7872]

100%. Too many sets = Too many rookie cards of a single player. Couple that with the ridiculous print runs and its going to be near impossible to hit the 1 players in a set that has any value 5 years from now. So, certainly any Topps Chrome or flagship is going to be a really bad investment. We live in a breaker's world now, and breaking has made high end sets accesible to a larger audience. I expect those higher end sets to hold their value much more and potentially even grow due to their lower print run and high hit ratio.

[@nickcancellieri435]

I love your RC explosion boxes but I’ve pulled a couple expired sig redemptions and that hurts every time…makes me second guess the worth of it…considering the price of course. Still appreciate your content!

[@Philmington]

Just emailed you

[@nickcancellieri435]

@@Philmington thanks Phil…I responded to your email…appreciate you!

[@cacsports]

I have no interest in purchasing new wax boxes but found this analysis incredibly interesting.

[@Philmington]

The conclusions are kind of obvious, but worth breaking down. Thanks for watching.

[@stevef]

Such a great breakdown. The only ones to invest in are the ones that don’t have redemption or redeemable aspects. 2020 Topps F1 is a good example. But as more people pull the unicorns the price does reduce but I agree that fanatics wants these things to have a six month life. Breaking, collectors and flippers looking for the hits.

[@Philmington]

Thanks Steve. Good points! 2020 FB might be an exception but too early to know for certain IMO.

[@jrgeb99]

I heard Cards HQ needs inventory. He’s got money to buy. 🤣

[@chrisc4264]

Only if there are Will Grier cards involved 😂

[@jrgeb99]

@@chrisc4264 😂😂😂😂 classic!!

[@AB-ir9ov]

Exactly! Only if philmington wants to sell, which I'm sure he does not.

[@fatpacksphunter9702]

Man one of the dirtiest secrets in the hobby is WTF does Topps and Panini do with the redemption cards not claimed????!

[@Philmington]

So true, man!

[@Blabbin_Bout_Slabbin]

Great video! Will be interested to see the 2018 wax video since that’s where I’m putting most of my (much more limited than you!) focus.

[@tomjohns5812]

It’s a shame that kids have been priced out of sports cards, the future of collecting is doomed

[@MeM.Card.Collect313]

I agree it’s a rich hobby now. Maybe the panini/fanatics thing will actually end up helping the hobby. Although I’ve been scared about what’s going to happen in the next few years.

[@Sean24ld13]

Still havent gotten anything from Topps for the Walker :(

[@markinnes4264]

Hi Phil. The falling prices of certain product is a good opportunity for you to include them in your RCEB, maybe fo the first time or after they've peaked. Opening the packs you choose is mostly for the experience but the potential is there and could work to your benefit to improve your Box. I don't see you stopping anytime soon.

[@Philmington]

💯 🚀 Definitely a lot of possibilities.

[@WeskerGriff]

In hindsight you should have been unloading your sealed wax tax free at the past couple of National shows to wholesalers like Dave & Adams or Blowout to alleviate risk in your position mang. Most sealed wax investors were already doing that in 2021 and 2022. Now you got to decided in 2024 should you load up the UHaul to Cleveland or double down and diamond hands your sealed wax. Son there comes a time when you got to cut your losses. No shame in getting on the life boat.

[@Philmington]

I think I’d rather die on the Titanic than move loads of wax to those guys

[@TheCardDeal]

Great idea, I am in Cleveland...Phil lmk what time ypu are stopping by, I have the Titos in the freezer at all times.

[@Philmington]

@@TheCardDeal oh sweet. My favorite vodka drink is probably a Hot n Dirty Martini. Yeah let’s open it all.

[@scottiebcards2354]

Hell yeah, Phil. Great video!

[@Philmington]

Thanks Scott, huge fan of your content

[@ZiggyNo]

Great insights and updates. I have thought that with the transition to Fanatics would be a challenging time but opportunity to make money in the immediate rookie product release more than holding. I have stopped buying wax and now buy breaks to chase the cards I want. Crazy, but less risky if you focus on PYT breaks only. Do you think Panini sealed wax could have some longer term value with their products in NBA and NFL coming to an end eventually. I know NFL is riskier hold, but NBA Prizm Hobby long term good or bad? Thank you

[@Philmington]

I plan to buy into more breaks this year actually. Not really to make money but more to have fun. Like you I want/need to have some strategy (or gameplan) to minimize risk/losses though. Arbitrage, etc. Gut says singles and wax won’t be hurt or helped much with the passing of the torch to Fanatics. If NBA Prizm Hobby turns out to be a good investment I feel it would have more to do with the overall NBA market (or broad sports market) reversing trend and rebounding than anything else. I’m not too familiar with last 2-3 releases of that product though.

[@chrisolivo6591]

I would love to collect ultra modern but it’s too much of a risk for how much they are going for. You don’t know what to collect and you don’t know what card will be in demand 10 years down the road. On top of that, you have to speculate right on that rookie. I miss the 90’s wax where you had tiers of high end, low end, refractors and inserts. The base cards back then held their value so there was something for each level of collector.

[@Philmington]

💯 Well said Tons of risk.

[@AB-ir9ov]

Great to see wax price crash, i am a buyer, just like you im a business and need product, keep crashing, I'm gonna make my money.

[@jasonabernethy8424]

I love your topics and idea's. Thanks for sharing!

[@thomasb6169]

I am still in the hobby buying singles to hold them. Then sell for a profit for either the short or long time. But i have mainly gotten out of opening wax from retail stores and shops. In other cases i will buy a little wax here and there with certain releases like Bowman & Bowman megas. I usually do pretty good in the Bowman Products.

[@fernando-mychildhoodcollec5671]

Your points are clear, but I love RC explosion; at least one per year =)

[@Philmington]

Thanks Fernando. It’s still a great product!

[@chrisc4264]

I think my 2018 baseball wax I got for cheap is fine. Anything after 2020, I'll agree is far more volatile. Regarding 23 Chrome hobby however I will disagree with you as far as sealed wax IF that rookie class pans out long term. I ripped retail for years and only pulled 2 redemption cards ever which thankfully weren't expired. Have you seen that even Chrome Update Sapphire now has sticker autos? That to me is a farce. Singles with sticker autos won't hold as much value as on card. I'm no longer buying new wax to stash anymore because of Fanatics schemes and bounty nonsense. During the boom cards went up too fast too quickly. We needed a gradual increase. Breakers and most people can't help themselves to open stuff. The overprinted new stuff sure won't hold value.

[@Philmington]

2018 is 🔥. With 2023 you might be right that’s it’s slightly better than 2022 once you factor in the Wander situation (slightly worse pre-Wander issues IMO). Time will tell. I’m rooting for 4-5 of the guys from 2023. Agreed the boom added a whole lot of nonsense- difficult for card companies to navigate. Lots of going off gut instinct, relying on obsolete/questionable data.

[@JasonCardbourne]

How ironic. Philmington filming in front of wax. Ha! I just thought of that. Keep the the film coming!! Im out of puns!! Great show

[@Philmington]

Appreciate it! Thanks for watching.

[@craigwinans1948]

Sounds like sports cards and other collectables are repeating the product glut that killed everything in '93. Shows that investors and producers never learn.

[@jamesesslinger1976]

What about my 1988 Donruss sealed case?

[@Philmington]

to the moon!

[@jamesesslinger1976]

@@Philmington good news! Lol

[@brooklyndy]

For the record I’d love to see 2022 Chrome Sapphire in any RCEB…good stuff…suggests you need to be leaving current releases for the breakers and buying >year old releases for your biz… sounds good to me! Thanks for the insight…

[@teddo997]

Love your content, Phil. Two questions: how long on average do you hold wax in general? does fanatics saying they want to really cut down on redemptions move the needle for you at all? thanks

[@Philmington]

First is a tough one to answer. Goal is 9 month average for the RCEB (could be 2 months or two years… but I’m trying to shorten this). For non-RCEB it depends on the product and my sentiment/intent. And yeah, that’s huge for Fanatics. I’ve noticed the improvement.

[@Rocketrickj18]

Agreed! Especially 1980’s wax!

[@AA-rc1ee]

So much better and more fun to focus on "collecting" rather than "investing." I truly hate what the hobby has become the last few years.

[@user-md3dq1bi7d]

Great video. Super insightful.

[@Philmington]

Thanks for watching. I appreciate it!

[@fliplife67]

That’s the big problem wax started off too high and if those players or rookies don’t play well the boxes just go down!!!!!

[@adambye2531]

I don’t really invest in wax but each year I do buy and collect an unopened hobby box of series 1, 2, update and chrome each year. The number of products is out of control and I hope it reverses. I don’t like the Topps Chrome brand getting diluted with all of these product variations.

[@rickm6232]

Hmmmmmmmmmmmm. Vintage is gonna make a HUGE comeback! They have simply saturated the market. Seems like something new every week.

[@northcoastbaseballcards]

Theres more and more products that are coming out where i just wait 6-8 months since i know it will be 60-80 like bowman chrome

[@jessmansportscards]

Hmmmm..... for me anything 2015 wax wise or older seems like it should appreciate okay. It's your take mainly new wax or me generalized?

[@Philmington]

2019+ is the main focus. I’ll still scoop up 2011-2013 Topps Chrome if I can find it and pay competitively.

[@robhanson2653]

Ps in bottoming out products. 2022 chrome update monster boxes going on gamestop for $25 per.

[@Philmington]

Yeah I grabbed some hobby boxes at $41.67 in November. Weak product for sure.

[@shakascloset1700]

So does this mean the demise of the REB? After inventory dries up.

[@chrishayes4166]

It sounded to me like the RCEB can and should continue. The arbitrage/opportunity for current release wax is still there, but you have to be selective and attentive to buying the right products on and not getting skunked with junk. It just sounds like (per Philmington the expert, I am no expert here) holding wax for a longer term (18months into years or decades) is the less appealing strategy with current conditions. Honestly the RCEB seems like a much more enjoyable way to "buy into a break" to me. That's effectively what people are doing, but they actually get to rip the packs (and make content for those who do so) themselves. Which to me seems like the much more satisfying experience. But for gamblers, the anticipation of the "dealer" handing you your fate I suppose releases more endorphins?

[@warhammerfaction]

Basketball high end has been good to me honeslty

[@Philmington]

Flawless and/or other stuff like NT, Immaculate?

[@Showcardsusa]

Beautiful video Phil! Very valuable per usual!!

[@Philmington]

Thanks, man. How much TC Black have you opened so far?

[@Showcardsusa]

@@Philmington I actually haven’t opened any 2023. I’ve been acquiring singles, but similar to your video thoughts, I’ve been buying fewer than usual…the thinking being a slowing economy with the overhang of so many high print run releases of other Topps products

[@Philmington]

@@Showcardsusa makes sense. Don’t be surprised if they cut the set in 2024. Not sure how popular it is from the standpoint of opening it. Breakers are complaining it’s watered down. A shame.

[@Showcardsusa]

@@Philmington it’s really disappointing that manufacturers (excluding perhaps Leaf), don’t appear to care about the secondary market. For example, first year TC Black had base print runs of about 926. Base autos of about 176. And nearly everything else was numbered. That’s a great recipe for a collector/investor. As the years go on it gets tougher to find, providing an escalating floor. Now print runs (2023), are nearly 80% higher, with additional parallel and auto inserts. Compared to many other Topps releases, the runs are small. But looking to maximize revenues, they’ve watered 2023 down from where it was…frustrating they can’t leave good enough alone. Your thoughts?

[@pcwithdpz]

Dang you told me to buy 100 cases of 2023 Bowman Chrome.

[@Philmington]

Right right bucko

[@shorebreakcards]

By the title, i thought this was a Bed Bath and Beyond candle video, sorely disappointed! All jokes aside, i feel for ya man, nothing but best wishes and hope you cone out as best as you can!✌🏻

[@mojo_sports]

great video bro

[@Philmington]

Appreciate it

[@robhanson2653]

How is wax bad when regular 23 chrome released at like 210 a hobby box and its now up to 250-270 unopened. They certainly need to do something about the less than $1 value numbered parallels. We even see this in high dollar flagship releases where after opening.. the value is selling everything will equate to a 30% or less value of investment. On over 85% of the product.

[@Philmington]

Actually it started in the $130-150 range. The buy-back is helping; it’ll be back below $200 on eBay auctions after the buy-back period is over IMO. Right now it’s around $220-230 in eBay auctions. To your point it’s absolutely an example of a strong product that was priced fairly upon release though. Not the norm for 2023. Not sure how much they can help with the value of parallels.

[@custum18]

Fanatics will continue to make sets with super short term astrological hype then instantly move on to the next set leaving the last one dead. Killing organic growth.

[@timmyspulls2436]

Says the guy who has all that sealed product jk lol i know you use it for youre rcexplosion boxes happy new year and stay safe phil

[@Philmington]

Have a great New Year as well Timmy

[@DeuceTreyz]

My 2 cases of Topps 2018 Baseball says otherwise lol

[@Philmington]

Only 2?

[@jetercollector2134]

Sees video title, begins to sulk. *Immediately begins to run to “mancave” to rip said sealed wax. With that said, I stick with the 3x main Bowman releases and 2018 stuff. Everything else I feel is a bloodbath.

[@Philmington]

💯ONE of my goals for 2024 is to open more wax and invest in less wax LOL

[@jetercollector2134]

@@Philmington Love it, if it’s a bad investment, just rip it and make it even worse if an investment! 😂 At least the thrill of the chase is still there and will always be prevalent.

[@BaseballCards35]

I hope all the investors take a bath on everything. Go back to the the casino, stock market, crypto, NFT's and leave our hobby alone please. Greed is truly disgusting. Becoming interested in something because you see a way to make quick money is shameful.

[@ntataryn]

Newsflash

[@jeffairtime3412]

Don’t blame Fanatics, blame Biden!

[@DarinsCards]

Is that shed climate controlled?

[@Philmington]

Yes, indeed

[@RandomEsports1]

not sure why u have so much dead ivnentory behind u. good luck

[@Philmington]

☠️

[@jkfactor]

no one cares about mvp buy back when they buy wax to hold. lol