We Are In The Middle Of A Stock Market Bubble...And Just Don't Know It

32.9 Percent...That was the contraction of the United States economy during the second quarter of 2020. That announcement combined with an unemployment rate of 11.1%, and the highest bankruptcy rate since the financial crisis, have caused the stock market to crash…or not. In fact, over the last 4 months, the stock market has actually had one of its best 4 month periods in history. You heard that right, during the worst economic crisis of our lifetime, the stock market has seen some of the most rapid gains in history.
Many people have attributed this strange behavior to special circumstances and a new kind of market and economy. Yet some people are saying something different.
In fact, there’s a small percentage of investors that have seen this strange pattern...a few times...before
For example, in the year 1993 a new technology called ‘web browsers’ started gaining popularity around the world. These web browsers, or more specifically the Mosaic web browser, allowed for the average computer user to connect to the internet in a simple and straightforward manor for the first time in human history.
And it was this technology that helped lead to the expansion of the internet and computers into the homes of the average person.
In fact from 1990 to 1997, the computer ownership rate more than doubled, from 15% to 35%, and from 1995 to 1999, the number of internet users grew from just 15 million to over 260 million.
Essentially investors could feel the wave of a new economy coming forward. I mean with upstart companies like Amazon selling books over the internet, and Ebay selling almost anything else, investors became extremely excited at the prospects of a new type of economy.
But also during this time, we saw one of the biggest cuts to interest rates in history. From 1989 to 1993, interest rates fell from 9.8 % to just 2.9%. All this meant was that investors could access capital much easier than they could’ve just 4 years prior.
And the last cherry on top was that there was a significant tax reform in the year 1997, which cut taxes on capital gains.
And it was these 3 factors that lead to one of the craziest periods that the stock market had ever seen.
You see, if you invest in the stock market, you can typically expect a 5 to 10% return per year.
But if you were an average investor and started investing in the stock market in october of 1990. You would have seen on average... a return of about 39% per year for the next 10 years.
But...if you were to have invested heavily in the tech sector with an index like the Nasdaq, you would have on average seen returns of 111.8% per year from 1990, up until the year 2000.
Meaning that if you were to have invested $100,000 into the tech sector in 1990, and simply held your investments for a decade, your portfolio would have been worth 1.1 Million dollars.
But the thing is that, this appreciation in the tech sector, and the stock market as a whole, wasn’t really because their was an influx of new companies that were raking in billions of dollars in profits. IT was mainly because there was an influx of investment capital from the excitement of a new economy, low interest rates, and tax cuts.
And one of the key metrics used to tell you how overvalued the stock market is, the P/E ratio. Essentially all this does is compare the price of a stock, to its earnings per share. Even though the value of a company is a lot more complex than a simple P/E ratio, this metric still is a good general indicator for determining if a stock is overvalued.
So in 1990, the average p/e ratio of the s and p 500 index was about 15, which has been close to the average p/e ratio for the past several decades.
But after the influx of new capital started flooding the stock market in the 1990’s, the average p/e ratio on the s and p 500 jumped up to just over 30.
All this meant was that the average company had doubled its value in relation to it earnings, from 1990 to the year 2000.
And during this time, it was common to hear stories through family and friends, and through the news, of people getting very interested in investing and even day trading to try and take advantage of these insane gains.
End of transcript. Too long
Discord:
/ discord
My Gaming Channel: / @attikagames1160
Want some Advice? Ask Me on Reddit!
/ jackchapple
My Personal KZbin Launcher Course
jackchapple.mykajabi.com/YTL
My Personal Investing Course:
jackchapple.mykajabi.com/SMM
Personal:
On Tik Tok: @jackchapple
On Reddit: / jackchapple
On Instagram! / jack_chapple_real
On Twitter! / jackchapplesci
On Facebook! / chapplerei
CONTACT:
For Collaboration Inquiries ONLY: [e-mail]
Podcast:

[@JackChappleShow]

Hey Everyone! So just a heads up, I am still going through some health issues right now. Most of this was edited when I was not feeling well, so if there is any errors, my apologies.

[@crystallewis4519]

Im first

[@crystallewis4519]

Hope you feel better

[@Flintknappingtips]

No apology needed. Get well soon 🤗

[@mcluke2146]

The mentioned banks that own the stocks are only ETF fund advisors which manage the money of a lot of people... So the assumption that the banks sell the stocks is wrong... They don't own it (apart from Berkshire Hathaway)

[@dharmender.balhra]

Take care brother, get healthy soon.

[@kashkat987]

I revisit this video occasionally. The recent market conditions hit my portfolio hard, especially my tech and A.I stocks. I lost nearly $100,000-a tough ride.

[@Americanpatriot723]

I believe there are several elements at work. Inflation is growing, and the Fed is considering raising interest rates or cutting rates. That worries investors. My best suggestion is to consider advisory management

[@sommersalt88]

When it comes to investing, the stock market offers great opportunities but also risks. My advisōr stressed the need for diversification with a mix of stocks, bonds, and REITS. Consulting a fínancial advisōr to tailor your portfolio to your goals is wise. I currently have $600,000 in a well-diversified portfolio that has seen exponential growth and is still growing.

[@MIchaelGuzman737]

How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure fínancial future and i'm eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?

[@sommersalt88]

"THERESA DANA PEEK" guides me. She currently partner's with MORGAN STANLEY. But there are a lot of independent advisors you might look into. For me, her strategy works hence my result. She provides entry and exit point for the securities I focus on.

[@MIchaelGuzman737]

Curiously inputted her full name in my browser and searched online, found her site ranked top, very professional.. thanks for putting this out, it has rekindled the fire to my goal.

[@kansasmile]

I don't lose a penny when the market goes down, or get too excited when a day like today happens... I am not selling, won't touch the money I have invested for another 10+ years, that's investing my friends. I want throw in another $100k just curious on where to diversify

[@Curbalnk]

I think you're better off with majority investment in S&P500 and uprising equities cos they always outperform. Alternatively speaking to a certified market strategist can help with pointers on which to acquire

[@kashkat987]

Right, when it comes to situations like this, it's ideal to engage in various options using an advisor, and I can attest to success of the basket approach seeing my portfolio grow from $350k to almost $1m in barely 3 years, by far my best financial milestone.

[@greekbarrios]

@@kashkat987 wow massive gains! my partner recently hinted on going same direction.. what did you invest in, and who is your investment advisr please, if you don't mind me asking? in dire need of asset allocation

[@kashkat987]

Can't divulge much 'Monica Selena Park' deserves credit for my investing success as one of the finest financial planners out there, you should be able to locate her online if you are internet-savvy.

[@Shultz4334]

Thanks for sharing this. I curiously searched for her full name and her website came after scrolling a bit. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her. Once again many thanks

[@rickmanley767]

1990’s big catchphrase: “it’s different this time”.

[@duanefranklin8796]

Stock market is future expectations of others people future expectations. Not the economy

[@anderben5521]

Already invited in stock and I can't really get good return from it

[@raulcecil9425]

Investing in crypto is the only big chance of making money

[@miltonchester5815]

For real crypto is profitable

[@gabrielleslie3484]

Crypto is the new gold

[@gabrielleslie3484]

@rafael paul That won't bother you if you trade with a professional like Mr Bruce

[@pauld9933]

-32.9% is the annualized GDP drop. The actual Q2 drop was -9.54%.

[@nachomuchacho1640]

Correct. But that's too much for doomsters to comprehend.

[@phillipcarlos5930]

Hello, I'm new to forex trade and I have been making huge losses but I recently see a lot of people earning from it. Can someone please tell me what I'm doing wrong

[@chungfua9580]

All you need now is a professional broker else you gonna continue blowing of your account

[@seanhannah3624]

For real it's very profitable

[@justinpamela8947]

I will recommend expert Mrs Laura trading service for you her strategies is working for me at the moment and making good profit from forex trading

[@eltonjohn8998]

Wow I'm just shocked you mentioned and recommended expert Mrs Laura trading service, I thought people don't know her... She's really awesome

[@whitney5453]

Haha you don't have to be surprised about expert Mrs Laura trading service she's really good and everyone love genuine services, she has helped me recover what I lost trying to trade on my own

[@sumitraghani]

Sep of 2017 to Jan 2017 would mean traveling backward in time :) Your videos along with Economics Explained are awesome. Keep it up! Look forward to each one of your videos!

[@darryllipscomb8251]

We are in a bubble, everyone just doesn't feel it yet. The pain is still to come.

[@pewpewlazers5702]

It won’t come how you think...governments are able to control how the economy reacts by the federal reserve system and interest rates etc...what you’ll see is future generations far poorer than they are today due to the current crisis.

[@usaball9190]

So you are saying that I should short the market? Ok

[@KingOfForest22]

Nah, after 2008, the fed knows it can just keep printing money to hold up the market. The bubble can't burst when you can just devalue the dollar which the market is priced against.

[@xxczerxx]

@@usaball9190 You'll lose a shitload if you try to short (I assume you are doing SPY puts). Everyone thinks they can time it, but the Fed will do everything. EVERY. THING. To keep the market propped up -- I think they can keep this charade going on for another year. I'm not a huge Keynes fan, but one quote of his is very true of people going short: 'markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent' ...

[@jmitterii2]

Only the top 20% really have any stocks. So most don't even notice it. The few that have a 401K don't even look at it, or even know what it means. They may glance at the balance... but if they become to aware of it, they borrow from it and don't have anything actually in it anyway.

[@DanValentineFilms]

Title: "We are in the middle of a stock market bubble" Narrator: "I'm not saying we're in a stock market bubble right now"

[@shajebkhalid7853]

I need everything spell it out for me. I hope you are not like me.

[@IntelligentEating]

🤣

[@mikeJones-zo8si]

Everyone has been saying the market will correct back since April. Keep saying it and eventually they will be correct. Just when

[@craigjohnson4302]

Reel them in, then CYA!

[@fabiomoraes35]

This is called click bait

[@ufoinsider6932]

None of those four companies are investment banks, they don’t all trade their own money, and they aren’t reliant on capital markets for purchases.

[@Chillednfunked]

We know what he means though...

[@JustMIH]

THANK YOU for this fantastic channel Watched all of your videos and appreciate all the knowledge gained

[@karlaxel7358]

“No one can see a bubble, Mike. That’s what makes it a bubble.” - The Big Short

[@biplav32]

Miachel Burry and the rest in the movie did.

[@ufoinsider6932]

Mike responds by saying that’s not true, there are indicators.

[@billaak417]

@@ufoinsider6932 mmmm

[@whereisthehook]

Of course he was wrong when he said this. Good movie, I do recommend the book also.

[@jeffsimoneaux5968]

only when bubbles pop now the Fed, pumps the air back in as quickly as it can and the next bubble gets even larger. Eventually the dollar will collapse that will be the time everyone will wish they had purchased lead instead of gold.

[@wildreams]

Google trends does not "predict" a bubble. But it does correlates with market enthusiasm of certain assets in real time.

[@andreasmeyer3593]

Dude you so smart, you predicted the market correction happening now in the tech stocks one month ago, brilliant. You have one more subscriber now.

[@RearAdmiralTootToot]

The stock market isn't going up in value, the dollar is just losing value.

[@jamesmorton7881]

Zombies, . . . Zombies, you must KILL them

[@amdz4696]

You think this companies convert our money invested into gold 🤔

[@ronaldvasquez6488]

A Mdz gold is expensive atm but soon it won’t... Spacex

[@amdz4696]

@@ronaldvasquez6488 you talking about space mining?

[@jamesmorton7881]

@@amdz4696 check out who OWNs the companies holding your gold ? sorry but the gold is backed by leveraged securities, you will (in a crash ) never ever see your gold ever . . . . . .LOL

[@pianomanutube]

All the chart comparisons to previous crashes were within times where trillions of dollars were not injected into the economy. So the main difference between the previous crashes before 2009 is about 6-8 trillion dollars just for starters.

[@susanlin6321]

It’s well- informed information for me. Thanks , keep it up

[@holtonaminute]

Thanks for putting out your content. Daunting yet relevant information.

[@alexanderrowan5723]

The bubble on housing caused a real down. I believe no matter the situation of the economy finding a way to profit of it priority . I don’t mind a stock bubble, with the right bet profit is still guaranteed.

[@SilverBritches]

Bubble of all bubbles. Hold tight folks.

[@christophern7921]

Won’t all the bubbles just cancel each other out?

[@rexmundi273]

The Nasdaq and Trump to the moon!

[@TheLukaszpg]

Lol sounds like you missed in March and now fomo is ha haunting you 🤣

[@SilverBritches]

@@TheLukaszpg not sure what you're talking about but hey 👍🏼

[@chrism3933]

Doesn't matter how hard you hold on. It's going to shake violently and it's going to tear you out from wherever you are.

[@SuperZander1999]

The stock market is no longer the economy. They do not react the same.

[@blainerouault3907]

There are two economies: Main Street and Wall Street

[@Dracstar]

True

[@TurreTuntematon]

That’s absolutely true. The correlation of these is less each year.

[@georgeholloway3981]

Dear Jack, If the banks encounter problems in the near term, do you think that they will mainly sell Apple (because that's what you refer to in the video), or will they sell right across the board (which I assume would be the more likely scenario)? Thanks for the great video!

[@Jaikool001]

Thank you for your videos. I am learning a lot. Keep up the good work. Subscribed!

[@blahsomethingclever]

Redistributing wealth to the top never ends well

[@Lite_Fare]

Redistributing wealth to the top never ends.

[@vemmaguy1977]

Can you say French Revolution?! I don’t think people liked the cake the royals were dishing out!

[@goh123superman]

@J Hof But the poor are the majority.

[@jmitterii2]

Love how the "this time is different" thinking even in this clip. "This time it's in more established companies." Is it really? FAANG would be like the 90's Microsoft even Yahoo and Apple then and it went bust for a period of time in the mid 2000's until it came up with the iPhone. And 3M, John Deere, Cat., GE, GM, Ford, various utilities are still hammered. But you have a rise in speculative disasters some that were just nearly avoided like WeWork. But Uber which has never really scored a profit since its existence and is being blocked by unions and other cabbies, same with Lyft and Arbnb and Nikola that doesn't even have a selling product available yet has suddenly billions in market capitalization. No. It's not. And there's no difference in people saying it's different... that is itself the same. It's a bubble. And for the same reason... "Fed Reserve that time crashed it." Well, they also caused the 90's bubble by lowering interest rates ever more so through the 90's as it grappled with low growth outsource til supply chains are all foreign and very few domestic... any shock to such a system, suddenly toilet paper even becomes scarce.... a bicycles become double and quadruple in price or just simply unavailable. Wages and salaries continue to decline. And the real wealth turns more feudalistic in buying up existing real-estate, no real conviction to really build more unless its to their fellow feudal lords for rents and flipping Mc-Palaces; rents rising in the face of a great depression even when their very tenants and any new tenant is unable to even pay their original rent prices. We're at the end period of a low wage race to the bottom global cluster mug. Difficult to say how it ends: hyperinflation or deflation... both likely in what order its difficult to say. And owning metals or stocks or comic books won't save you from the ill effects that have and still devastate nations worldwide all the time. Difference is that a global collapse happens to more than just a handful of countries, but most if not all nations all at once.

[@tylernestor5175]

China will benefit from this in that they won't have to subsidize the U.S with free stuff anymore. Invest there

[@JBulsa]

Better video. What is the average pe now? Why wasn’t PEG covered? What’s are comparatives of google trends between 2000,2008, and now? W/ aapl, amzn?

[@evangarza2309]

knowing how large of a portion of many Massive companies that banks own was a very helpful fact to know, thank you for this information. Ive made a lot of money with my VGT tech stock, but i am quite scared that it could tank within the next few months, I may consider selling off soon

[@jeffsetter213]

P.E. ratio's of today simply are not comparable to those of any previous period for two major fundamental reasons: 1) There are fewer stocks to invest in. Today, there are less than half the number of publicly traded stocks than there were in 1998, for example. Globalization has caused wave after wave of consolidation while increased regulations & low interest rates have caused many corporations to stay private as they avoid the scrutiny & hassles of going public while maintaining access to huge amounts of capital via private equity, which has always been the biggest reason for going public in the first place. 2) Technological advancements now allow virtually any person/fund/firm to invest in any market from anywhere in the world at any time. As little as 10 years ago it was much more difficult for an investor to buy equities or treasuries in foreign markets. This has consolidated money from around the World into fewer & fewer markets over time. This combination of an unprecedented influx of investment capital from around the globe into the most successful, liquid & stable markets combined with halving the number of public corporations in those markets has necessarily pushed up P.E. Ratios dramatically. This has caused a "black hole effect" as the more capital that is sucked up by the most successful markets, the more capital is attracted to those markets, pushing P.E.'s higher & higher regardless of the underlying fundamentals and further disconnecting them from historical values. As long as the leading markets stay the leading markets this trend will almost certainly continue, skewing P.E's even further over time and making historical comparisons less & less relevant. There are also a number of other, slightly less relevant but still important reasons P.E.'s are fundamentally higher as well. For example, the rise of the 401k retirement system that has replaced the pension, the unprecedented waves of stimulus from central banks around the globe, insanely low interest rates that push investors/savers away from treasuries & into equities, low energy costs & supply chain improvements which decrease global shipping & logistics expenses and a low inflation rate which depresses other basic commodity input prices, to name just a few. The cumulative effect and complexity of these massive changes make understanding the exact magnitude & effect on the system as a whole virtually incalculable but one thing that is for certain is these changes have massively changed the meaning of P.E. Ratio's as we have known them. But this is not to say the trend will never be broken & a reversion to something resembling historical normalcy won't happen eventually. We already see the seeds being planted as waves of nationalism are sweeping the globe but make no mistake, when it does actually happen, you'll know it, as it will likely be accompanied by a violent down swing in prices and a massive shakeup in global economic market fundamentals as markets, economies & supply chains decouple causing the largest corporations to rapidly lose global market share, allowing small-medium sized enterprises to claw it back, returning some normalcy to P.E. ratios in the process. Until then, my advice is to assume the trend will continue and P.E. Ratio's will continue to climb while being less & less relevant as a comparison to history. But what do I know? I'm just some guy on the internet giving his unsolicited opinion. Cheers!

[@BornIn-uj6gk]

Awesome perspective.

[@saralbudhiraja]

Your perspective deserves a Medium Post. Thanks for sharing it.

[@lil10dot]

thank you, unless you have well thought out opinions like this guy (i''m not necessarily saying he's right, I'm relatively clueless), please stop commenting wasting everyones time

[@carollee8823]

Thanks for that.

[@jeffsimoneaux5968]

yeah, but no. try again

[@jamesdonald7485]

You can't counterfeit trillions of dollars into the financial system without some very adverse effect

[@Asian_Connection]

You want to bet?

[@rjf7023]

it aint counterfeit money they pumped into the system. It's real money. which is worse

[@reshpeck]

Well said, Tricky Ricky

[@idunnmyhr8854]

Congratulations on the new success Jack Chappell Is there a way to decode the global effect the US $ has as the reserve currency and effect on aspects like global currency/ exchange/financial stability and a specific breakdown of the privilege/oppression /or manipulations the reserve currency is on a macro level ..? Keep up the good work Thanks

[@blry1234]

Its more like we are in a stock market bubble and most investors most definitely know this but they just want to ride the bubble for as long as possible to gain as much of the large increase in value as possible and pull out only right before a crash

[@JonathanRootD]

Good luck getting out in time

[@bvm437]

@@JonathanRootD I haven't started yet. Maybe I'll wait a bit until it crashes and then buy a lot.

[@swedishmeatballs4209]

We don't know were in a bubble until it's already too late.

[@XiOh]

mhh the title should be "We Are In The Middle Of A Stock Market Bubble...And everybody knows it"

[@Rmacon4002]

XiO h the whole time I was like “ he dummy we know! 😂😂 like when does it PoP

[@emanueleco7363]

“and even who knows it is buying”

[@wildreams]

But you will not sound as smart?

[@rayamat01]

Have you had a conversation with a normie lately? I know a ton of people that think we're at the bottom right now and have nowhere to go but up. Strange I know but most people are idiots. All I've been hearing is "buy the dip"

[@markusfrey4256]

@XiO h You're right! It should be asked ...are we...?

[@ajinkyababar6072]

Very Informative! Thanks for sharing :)

[@Renould2010]

Jack Chapple, Thank you, for this Well Though, very informative, 🧠💡🤝.

[@ZelenoJabko]

Wait, going from 100K to 1.1 million is 27% per year, not 111.8%.

[@pankajkhatri5573]

Yeah I also frowned when it appeared

[@momo777777777777777]

American Maths

[@patrickgrengs7594]

I had the same reaction ... 111.8% is more than doubling ... doubling in 10 years would be 2 ^ 10. The 100k would turn into 100 million.

[@mosab7]

RIP Newton, both for the video and your comment

[@albernard180]

@@momo777777777777777 yeah. Sure your country is the greatest country on Earth 😂

[@gwarlow]

We are ALWAYS in a stock market bubble. Hence, the repeating series of rallies and crashes over the history of the stock market. Get well soon.

[@rajatchaudhary1189]

What was the total percentage correction happened in 2000 and in 2007 crash ?

[@Cyclops0000]

The initial crash this year in March was caused by the virus halting international trade and shortly after most domestic trade. There are lots of new traders with spare cash and less distraction because they're home working or on government support schemes so they've driven up the prices of popular stocks. Plenty of other stocks should never have gone down in the first place because their business is entirely unaffected so they bounced back quickly as expected (utilities companies, most online services and shopping). The industries still struggling have been struggling for a decade anyway and the weakest of the bunch may close permanently as investors re-evaluate their entire portfolios to focus on growth industries 3 years+ down the line (cinema chains, airlines, traditional car manufacturers and anything fossil fuel related are all risky areas). If you buy anything now be prepared to hold through serious volatility and average down your position when possible.

[@johnakonzee2782]

As an investor, just want to say that next year will be fun!

[@stevent2705]

Can’t wait for this bubble to collapse and purchase all these stocks for discount prices once they arrive at the sale rack. Real estate as well, stay liquid and prepare to capitalize on opportunities friends.

[@astasna]

Exactly the confirmation I was waiting for.

[@astasna]

Keep it in US dollars or ?

[@Brian-sh2fy]

@@astasna will the US still survive or go back to where it was if there is a crash?

[@zachcushing-murray2663]

@@astasna If you are expecting this, precious metals would make more sense. When the market crashes, precious metals boom. Then you sell off and reinvest into stocks. You win on both the crash and recovery that way.

[@thepaystation]

Land will never lose it’s value.....

[@gustavlindell2753]

‘So I am not saying that we are in a bubble right now...’ Meanwhile the title of the video: we are in a stock market bubble

[@phil20_20]

This time it's a National Bubble, not just one industry. It's brought on by the Fed's overspending.

[@Coco-yw9nf]

Leech Phillip yes.But people refuse to go to work when called, don’t apply for jobs and create burden for tax players

[@BewareTheCarpenter]

Did you forget about compounding interest at 3:12?

[@jcasstudio]

Yeah I thought that too

[@san8vicente]

Thank you. I got a couple of useful tips from your presentation. We are in a bubble, and unlike previous bubbles more people are aware of this than ever, even the Fed reserve bank. So they are keeping the bubble inflated, while we go through the health crises and the economic slow down it creates. But once the pandemic in the US starts to reduce, the Fed intervention will slow down and the stock market is likely to have a correction. The puzzle is not whether we are in a bubble but everyone is trying to guess when it will end and time the market. This is where a lot of people will get caught if these big institutional investors sell their stocks.

[@freelcf]

Great summary. Thank you.

[@HelnoIaint]

Well said I couldn't agree more have plenty of dry powder to deploy in the next year or two

[@dometriuschantelle-pini9456]

Can anyone assist with the back round classical music used in the beginning,, I believe its cello.. but am not sure. Its something my mother used to play for me when young, and would like to play for my daughter who is still in the womb... tag a response if you could... thanks.

[@FruitlessRoaster]

If you download the app shazam, it can listen to music and tell you what the song/piece is. There's a setting where it can listen in the background and pick up music from videos. Not sure if it'll work though because he's talking over it.

[@xXMaXtremeXx]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/o3i0fYuIidFmkJI

[@charlesc3618]

There are also a bunch of IPOs coming out, which is usually an indicator of an impending bubble-burst. This was happening in the late 90s during the .com bubble, and I have also read that it was happening just before the 1929 crash. Just one more indicator to keep an eye on. Hope it helps.

[@h0ust0nwehaveapr0blem]

Could you please explain why that is an indicator?

[@Romulus2099]

We're definitely living more in the time before the great depression, more than any other time in history. You want to talk about parallels, do some research on the time before then. (not the narrator, you do amazing work, just talking generally) I do agree, we are very much in a bubble and a time of massive exuberance

[@kelleycrockett3387]

A whole lot of short term thinking without any long term planning, people have set aside less than $400 for an emergency yet they’re steeped in debt for consumer goods.

[@Romulus2099]

@@kelleycrockett3387 this is why the rich get richer, they're not the consumers, they're the sellers and the owners

[@Romulus2099]

@Intelligently Stoopid it certainly will be interesting

[@Romulus2099]

@Intelligently Stoopid very dark. Haha

[@philipsvensson9368]

Trading these markets is pure love :)

[@BlackRiceBIGN8]

imagine not already knowing we're in a stock bubble the decade is fucked

[@knoblauchdittrich7412]

My man. The mathematics behind the calculation about the Tech investment in 1990 are so flaud it's incredible

[@icaropereira3218]

I felt that too, all that talk about information revolution and I was thinking the math would only work if those companies were really making robots to do all the work. Maybe if robotaxis work we now will have that revolution.

[@knoblauchdittrich7412]

@@icaropereira3218 that's not at all what I was referring too. But it doesn't matter all that much, I just think this video is rubbish

[@philippetersen64]

Clear and concise, well paced narration. Making it it easy to digest the information. Good job.

[@stevemolloy2747]

Shares don’t match the current state of the economy.

[@MarketStoic]

Who said it should? Did you look at how the US markets performed in 1916 during WWI? Go read Reminiscence of a Stock Operator.

[@williamjohnson9815]

Nicely done video. Thanks for not pretending you have all the answers. I am always 6 mos to a year or two early, so maybe that explains why I have no investments during this latest rally. Got completely out of the market a year ago. I remember during the boom of the late 90's some of the top mutual fund managers retired because the stock market made no sense to them. Then came the bear of 2000. Today, it feels kind of like a replay of 1929 or 2000.

[@TLNetworkGuru]

We need to look at the ratio of Total Market Cap / M2 for 1998 compared to 2020. P/Es could likely get to 60 if we have twice or three times 10x the amount of money chasing 2x the amount of Market Cap Stocks.

[@CIAplant]

It feels like we’re on the titanic, and the band is just about to start playing...hope you feel better soon Jack, take care

[@Nocturne83]

Yet, I cannot fathom how we aren't sinking like the Titanic. Which event Will trigger the next BIG drop? I mean the motherbomb of all drops.. The big Apocalyptic drop. Will it ever happpen?

[@JuanJimenez-jo7vw]

Despite the economic crisis, this is a Still a good time to invest in Gold and Crypto

[@lenakdutton4822]

The rich spend less and invest more

[@janemartin5028]

Investing in these economic crisis will be one of the best thing to do

[@katiewilliams6096]

You're right I think Gold and Crypto are the best to invest right now

[@hindatugash1918]

Gold's are good but crypto is better

[@bongaatsu7704]

I wanted to trade crypto but got confused by the fluctuation in price

[@oliviermosimann6931]

Interesting video, thanks. Get well ;)

[@nickwestedt2344]

Intersting video. Wonder who is the major holder of the tesla stock is it the CEO or other investment companies? 🤔

[@harmhoeks5996]

Curious how this video will age

[@rockwithyou2006]

my guess is it will age very badly.

[@adamchill8780]

So far it’s looking like he’s right, all hell is about to break loose

[@ominousduck7929]

@@adamchill8780 Yea. NASDAQ is falling fast, DOW dropped 500 today, and Gamestop, AMC, and Blackberry have grown more than 100%. I'd say the bubble is soon to burst.

[@ominousduck7929]

I checked the stock market. After the GME shock, all indexes have dropped 2%. I see it all happening.

[@rockwithyou2006]

You know, when markets go up in a big way, it is but obvious to come out and predict a crash. All average people do that. In-fact they predict a crash almost every week and keep doing it until the crash actually happens some day and they come out and say "You see I was RIGHT !!", and feel like a genius. None of them is a genius. These are average people. A real genius can separate a bull market from a bear market. I am not saying this video is wrong or the people who have commented here are wrong. But I have been hearing this shit since 2013. Its been 8 years and nothing happened except a crash which came due to the coronavirus and didn't last for even 3 weeks. Many people missed out in a really big way.

[@SpudRud]

There’s way to much cash every for anything to go down anytime soon. If it does, there’s no way we’ll see new lows. It will be a very very slow drop if it happens.

[@matthewbowers2724]

The complete opposite will happen because of too much cash. All this cash is coming from the fed printing vast swathes of money out of thin air. Hyperinflation will be very scary

[@matthewbowers2724]

Will end up being a collapse of the dollar just like Argentina and Zimbabwe

[@ddespinosse]

Love this video but l have a question. If these huge investment banks which own majority shares of companies like Apple collapse and there is a big sell off doesn't that mean that retail investors can own majority shares? Is that not possible/likely? If so why not?

[@ddespinosse]

@Jack Chapple thank you

[@tieyiklunmliu]

The only question I have is will the gold stocks go down as well, because that's 95% of my portfolio.

[@youmayberight2434]

TL. I would diversify. You stand to lose a lot if you don't.

[@madameroseline8488]

Very true Jack. I suspected this outcome earlier this year. Had to diversify my portfolio, now I'm making insane profits investing in the forex market 😊

[@sarahpitman7114]

I'm interested in knowing how you do this

[@rolandarmandar6734]

Insane profits? I'm interested lol

[@briannatrower3097]

How do you invest in the forex market? I initially thought you can only trade it just like the stock market.

[@keithsunderland9314]

That's what I do too. Forex is highly profitable with the help of an account manager trading on your behalf.

[@soiziszposis5977]

@@keithsunderland9314 Does this work consistently for you?

[@11riehldeal]

I’m sorry. Who doesn’t know that we are living in a stock market bubble?! They live under a rock?

[@JOHNUDT]

Good One 😂

[@angelosgiotis6258]

After Labor Day...it will go down! Trump 50/50 shot to Win!

[@11riehldeal]

Angelos Giotis nope. The TGA has over a trillion laying in wait to fend off collapse prior to the election

[@thealal6869]

*crawls out from under rock*

[@justin4022]

@@angelosgiotis6258 there is a pretty interesting stastic that the vast majoirty of the time the stock market has increased average of 7-8% even following ANY election

[@suelkoka]

Nice work. Short and clean

[@RababaInc]

so how do we prepare for a stockmarket crash?

[@PebbleBeachLife]

I've watched so many economic videos, KZbin owes me hundreds of credits for my KZbin degree.

[@sjevz]

Lots of actual degrees have worse teachers than some youtubers

[@moetelay2249]

111.8% a year for ten years on 100k is a lot more than 1.1M you do know that right 😂

[@maniacbg]

The moment I stopped watching the video... :D

[@nathancarter8483]

174 million, only a couple mill off

[@delta-loichunter66]

I had to search a lot to find someone picking this up too... Also stopped watching this video there

[@wy3131]

Very well presented! Totally concur with your view.

[@mihaip1179]

2021 might possibly be named by historias the golden year. As SPX passed 3500, our investors will get the courage to buy more. A 100% rise in indexes is still yet possible, before another 20-25% correction could deter the continued growth of this decade by 6-12 months.

[@tacohermans1146]

I hope so. Why do you think it will rise further in 2021 ?

[@vemmaguy1977]

This market isn’t going to Fall! We are witnessing a hyperinflation blow off like the Venezuelan stock market did.

[@sylvainh2o]

yeah people like to panic but money printing is creating hyperinflation big time so you better off being invested in assets like stocks. This pandemic proved that Innovation stocks that will change our future will continue to do well even through pandemics.

[@SirSmithThe1st]

We won’t get hyper inflation. Highest the Fed will let it get is 2%. You have to remember that lower commerce (lower money velocity) is deflationary.

[@michalnowak3558]

@@SirSmithThe1st 😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂

[@michalnowak3558]

You are right,i was thinking about it today.Germans were in similar situation after WWI.China rules the World and it will have to be adjusted,will military involvment be necessary?Who knows🤷‍♂️ Hybrid war is ignored,people are lazy and greedy so they stay home when you give them stimulus money and order to do so(they do not even call for their constitutional rights,why would they if they can still shop online) but not affraid of "victims" that war killed by "convid" .It is sad,very sad.

[@lucifersevenelevenmorningstar]

@@michalnowak3558 Stop; smoking; crack.

[@rickyb6641]

5.53 "...i'm NOT saying that we are in a stock market bubble but..."

[@monmoon9249]

Does anyone have an estimate of how much AI/automation the markets had during the Great Recession. I believe currently we're at 80% of trades. It will be interesting to see how this unfolds.

[@gr8sparty]

Reiterating what many have already pointed out in the comments - this time around it's not something like a tech stock bubble or a bitcoin bubble or a tulip bubble. There is no "hype" about any theme - the markets are super aware of the pandemic. It's simply the liquid money in the world moving from extremely low interest yielding investments to somewhat higher return yielding stocks. P/E ratio should also be seen with respect to interest rates. The inverse of P/E - E/P shows what the market expects in terms of profit per dollar or his Return on investments. If he sees that world over, non-equity investments make such low returns as the interest rates are so low, he would be OK with an E/P of 2-5% which corresponds to a P/E of 20-50 in a riskier investment like equity.

[@xmixaplix]

If it poppin I'm buying 😗🎶

[@jasonx1767]

Well if the bubble last 10 years like the 90s then great..lol

[@ronaldvasquez6488]

It will, this forced recession would make it so, plus a stimulus check lol. Anyways, the point is the gap between rich and poor would be more noticeable soon.

[@moonhsu9111]

I think most most people realize we are in the bobble and yet we hope to prolong a bit longer .

[@Boiotollio]

As someone who works in finance, I must point out there is a bit factually incorrect about the "ownership of Apple". Vanguard, Blackrock and State Street are NOT "investment banks" - they are companies that sell investment funds (package different investment together). Because these are an efficient way of investing in the stock market, many people chose to buy one of these funds (they're probably in your 401k!). Because of this, Vanguard, Blackrock and State Street just represent YOU (as a collective), who has purchased these funds through the fund structure! Moreover, the selection of which investments go into those funds is meant to just mirror the 500 largest stocks in the market according to their size, so no one there "knows" more about Apple than we do - they just increase or decrease their holdings directly in line with the stock price.

[@KrisBN]

Just to be clear. 6 people can’t be first.

[@thatdude034]

People with DID: Hold my personalities

[@virginmary7989]

666th

[@MikeEmersontv]

Thank you for teaching me P/E ratios.. Tesla’s current P/E 860! Super bubble stonk

[@bumble144]

Lol don’t trade using boomer pe

[@MikeEmersontv]

bumble144 ok Mr.Robin Hood, enjoy chasing the herd

[@R3tr0v1ru5]

@@MikeEmersontv Tesla is a growth stock you idiot. It's not about trailing P/E, it's about 10 years in the future. P/S ratio is reasonable.

[@lifeinperspective5327]

Great narrative. I agree. As a portfolio manager, I like your approach and encourage diligence going into the elections and beyond for the reasons you mentioned. Too many investors, when times are good, get complacent and hooe to eek out every bit of appreciation they can and end up frozen and emotional when the market corrects. Especially nowadays whereby the speed of corrections and recoveries is so rapid. Well done.

[@lifeinperspective5327]

@Ken Semotiuk With almost 30 years of experience and several crashes and corrections successfully navigated I'd say my vision has improved some. If your experience tells you otherwise I am glad. Wishing you peace and success.

[@lifeinperspective5327]

@Ken Semotiuk 🙏🙌

[@jeffsimoneaux5968]

only when bubbles pop now the Fed, pumps the air back in as quickly as it can and the next bubble gets even larger. Eventually the dollar will collapse that will be the time everyone will wish they had purchased lead instead of gold.

[@arrrryyy]

Everyone knows we are in bubble we were in bubble in 2019 too

[@Crypdography]

I knew we were in a bubble when apple, Amazon, and google all became trillion-dollar companies. This system is going to plummet!

[@steveno7058]

You do know that Apple generates almost $100 billion in free cash flow a year? Not overvalued at all.

[@divyasasidharan2960]

What kind of an agreement is that? Please explain

[@cognihensionchannel-doctorSSS]

A bubble implies a P/E ratio that future analytics can not predict or support. But where do you draw that line? We should be asking how investors come to realize bubblistic RSI or Momentum if not from other investors. Where is investor insurance?

[@suelkoka]

We for sure are in a debt bubble. We are headed towards MMT system . Printing money will be the norm , but the way we will control it won't be easy. Turbulences will come.

[@Coco-yw9nf]

Suel Koka chin is loving this

[@lucanidae100]

Time to get out of the market. Where to go? There is almost nowhere to go.

[@perimannn]

IMHO, the stock market is over pumped because much more and more ppl are online trading right now ......even my grandma so to speak. And we all know that a major price lifter of any given item or situation is when it attracts attention ......and because i have been there and i know how it is to perceive that you re going to have more freedom and power sitting in your living room and playing your cash online. With all those huge numbers of ppl being sent away from their jobs, while internet and IT and ecommerce do increase by leaps and bounds, the perception of online trading is bubbling up exponentially ....... even as i was watching this video i had to go through 3-4 times etoro's ad on youtube. Ppl massively try to go from the 1st, 2nd rich dad poor dad's cash-flow quadrants straight into the 4rth one which is the investor's world. When ppl will start realize that this is not the way to live a life by being stuck on a screen either, then we will be having yet another shift. Until then, happy trading !

[@Dr_Salt]

The ammount these poor mans brokerage houses work with is insignificant to move the markets. Berkshire, Blackrock, big banks etc are the true market movers.

[@msaldana678]

@@Dr_Salt haven’t you heard the $500 RobinHood accounts are the new market makers

[@jackmist5096]

Yes definitely so the video makes sense and seems legit.... My question is : So then why vanguard, blackrock, BRK and SSGA holding this large number of apple shares ???? When they know that stock market is booming and gdp is sinking, it is pretty clear that it is a bubble and so why dont they start decreasing their stake in overvalued tech companies ?????

[@tjbtc1241]

Good vid, very interesting 👍

[@bretmaki2110]

I feel things would still get worse in the near future. This is certainly the time to look out for short term strategies. Would be best to get a help preferably a pro IA cuz this market is pretty much complicated right now.

[@Kennedy-my8ez]

My story with the market has been all about shoot and miss and now I'm even more discouraged by this speculations about recession. Would appreciate any kind of tips or recommendation.

[@bretmaki2110]

​@@Kennedy-my8ez I have my funds across other securities not just on stocks and I'm a bit aggressive. But I don't make these picks myself. I use trade signals from a US regulated broker and investment advisor Monica Sullivan Javorcic. I've made very decent returns from an allocation of $150,000 since Jan 2020 using a professional help.

[@Kennedy-my8ez]

@@bretmaki2110 Quite impressive. Do you copy the trades manually? I have a full time job. And what does Monica Javorcic charge for her services?

[@bretmaki2110]

@@Kennedy-my8ez Auto trading works programmatically so you don't have to sit to copy manually but you have control over your funds and can opt out anytime. It's a subset of algorithmic trading. The lady I just recommended is a renowned broker and knows what the heck she's doing. You can check her out online if you'd need some help. Good luck

[@Kennedy-my8ez]

@@bretmaki2110 Just found her official website so I'll mail her right away. Thanks

[@DiabeticDawg]

Sounds like when the banks dump these stocks - there will be some bargains worth a 1$ selling for 0.50$ ;)

[@zamfully]

I agree totally . Not that it means anything but we’ll see. Thank you.

[@abdoabdo-mj2hp]

Man like your video Good job Can you please make u a video about real state 2021 it will be crash When , it will start , who much drop Thank you

[@rjf7023]

i pulled out of the market when it recovered about HALF of what it lost... my funds are just sitting right now...im waiting for it to crash. when it does crash and the market drops 20%, i'm going to jump back in and ride it back up. I have like a 20 year horizon so i dont need to time it perfectly..just need to get in when its down a considerable amount

[@joelhardin1166]

Its going to collapse at least 75% if not more so good luck

[@rjf7023]

@@joelhardin1166 that be great if it did... id almost double my money as i ride it back up

[@joelhardin1166]

@@rjf7023 it will hit bottom at least a year after the collapse.

[@user-rs4ci3fn2d]

Do you’re willing to let your money to be devalued ,,ok

[@rjf7023]

@@user-rs4ci3fn2d re-read what i wrote

[@ramblinwes7853]

Wait wait wait! Who doesn't know we are in a bubble? The economy has been crushed and stocks are up! Everyone who doesn't know we are in a bubble has got to be a little... touched.

[@xxczerxx]

Therein lies an issue -- EVERYONE believes we're in a bubble.

[@albernard180]

True but there are lots of stocks that will still make money.

[@chocktalk]

dont see how the economy has been crushed

[@xxczerxx]

@@chocktalk Look at distressed debt, unemployment rates, retail sales, new loans issued.... Every element of the real economy has been crushed! Outside of financial assets, naturally...

[@nickmercurio2422]

@@chocktalk try opening your eyes

[@alexv9934]

I haven't seen that 73% drop yet maybe next year everyone was calling for 4000 spx top ahahahaha its at 4700 now I say 5900 top and crash in September 2022

[@hondajacka2]

It’s inflation of asset prices cause of money printing and hyper-transformation to the digital web economy.