We Studied The Data to Try and Find Out When The Market Could Potentially Turn Over

During a Tasty Live session, Tom and Tony noted E-mini S&Ps up 1.25 points, NASDAQ up 14, and discussed the implications of low volatility (VIX), drawing on historical trends to forecast market stability through 2024.
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[@boardroomresumes9612]

Get this guy on the show more often! His graphs were an easy way to show what the data is saying.

[@bakotako]

this took a lot of time. not an everyday thing, prob more a biweekly thing as a former data analyst. def get him on more; just dont expect anything above a biweekly frequency maybe given his other duties.

[@rene13c]

Yeah this video was great

[@7figurefello]

Excellent give him a raise !!!!

[@user-zd1gz1ov5w]

The guy was right the sell-off started Sept of 2007 and bottomed in 2008, I remember the day the sell-off started, everyone says 2008 but that's wrong.

[@jmfu]

When people say this market is reminiscent of the 1990s, the graph shown at 8:40 shows exactly that. 🎈⚡💨

[@RafCai]

This research is a game/mind changer. Bravo 👏🏻. Thank you tasty again.

[@db2123]

This was really solid research. Loved the data visualizations.

[@thisisbige7970]

Can you add his name on the title so i can filter for the videos with him?

[@stevenrod7]

Love this stuff, great work on the statistics and charts, I was thinking I would like to see a graph of all the drawdowns of the year at what VIX level and your study did just that, keeping on the subject. Really good stuff, of course any major political event or major disruption across the world or here in the U.S. can be a catalyst for a drawdown.

[@ricomajestic]

Great study! More statistical studies like this would be awesome!

[@josevelez7539]

Excellent study! Could you do the same study but for election years? I have read that election years see to either throw the markets off for a few months to then revert to the mean but would want to hear what your data shows re: SPX!

[@jasonloeffler6100]

Could you please do the same study for vix under 14 , 13 and 12? I think using 15 is convenient for more statistical opportunities and also a main stream number

[@timothydoubek8107]

Excellent study with very creative visuals and I enjoyed that he was trying to look into the possibilities for the coming months.

[@xnj_]

Excellent piece Jiajun !!

[@andrewmitchell7592]

I think what makes this most similar to 08' is many factors coupled into one. We are seeing housing prices collapsing at the highest in years, unemployment is near the Sahm's rule when it hits another percent tick up, and SMP500 weighted index is leading higher because of literally 3 different multi-trillion dollar companies which sure it could never matter because people have the ability to invest regardless but as earnings seasons continue what are the odds that they come back decent at all anymore?

[@zshn]

Brilliant insights!

[@bethmckenzie2405]

Great information!

[@bakotako]

this was very well done. to me, it shows you can trust VIX and IV and deltas until we get to mid 20s that when it is high enough such that dramatic moves can be made outside the IV to move the VIX even higher or crash it back to the teens. TY

[@JoelRazon]

Excellent research and explanation, very interesting!

[@pelefuentes1988]

A+ work gentlemen

[@nkpags]

So this assures us of no significant drawdowns for the foreseeable future? (Until VIX increases?)

[@DougSmileyVirgo]

A lot of small daily SPX daily moves will keep me on my day trading toes. Can't wait for high VIX zone.

[@mrchrisadams43]

Man, these guys are the first trading media personalities that got me into trading 12 years ago. Tom was always trying to call the top in SP back then, lol..that was when we were at 900. I moved on to other types of trading after a couple years...cool to see they are still at the buisness of perma-bearinbg

[@RahulGupta-oy8vt]

Informative market measures in a long time. We need to see such content more.

[@ricomajestic]

How are SPX drawdowns defined here? It is not clear. Is he looking at closing price of SPX from one day to the closing price of SPX the next day? Is he instead looking at the open price of SPX one day to the closing price of SPX on that same day?

[@wombie808]

i'd lke to see this analysis for election years and if it holds up to the rest of the years

[@brianfruman123]

This markets a nuthouse look at ARM in April like 80s now 180. This follows the ridiculous move that looked like buyout.

[@wombie808]

ARM PE is only 503 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

[@stevehawkins4914]

Facts and techies with glasses beat checkin littles 99% of the time

[@CO-ph9nv]

Who's the asian dude, need him in the credits please. Would love to see him more =) (found it Intern Jiajun Zou)

[@CO-ph9nv]

ok Twitter has him as "intern Jiajun," give that man a job!

[@retirementisgettingclose]

trying to predict the unpredictable is a fools game. trade what the market gives you, don't try and predict anything because the market will make a fool out of you. How do you guys not know this??

[@user-zd1gz1ov5w]

This is not normal times. Inflation is driving the markets so nothing matters but government spending if they stop the market will crash.