Sell The Bounce? Downside Risks To Stocks Still Loom

[@Worldly40]

The best part of this channel is that they make things understandable. Thank you.

[@Pelican5077]

Totally the best financial channel on YT. Delivering actual info retail investors can use. Without the shilling. Thanks so much.

[@fhowland]

Wealthion’s content has been killing it lately. Best in class on KZbin. Rational, fact-based, and insightful. Thanks so much.

[@LeoOnealProductions]

Wealthion has become my number one channel to watch for financial content. I can't thank you enough Mr. Taggart for the effort you put it ! Best regards from your biggest fan from Brazil.

[@dixiederivatives]

Oi Brasileiro! Where do you live? I lived in Brasil, great country, great people!

[@LeoOnealProductions]

@@dixiederivatives Hi there! Happy to hear you've enjoyed being here. I live in the southern region!

[@edinnorthcarolina--ovelhog5786]

@@LeoOnealProductions Porto Alegre?

[@sirrx-5122]

I appreciate the round view of upside potential with downside risk. Not just bullish or bearish

[@AI_futurist_]

Another excellent chat. Thank you for the generous sharing of information, i have no doubt this channel will keep adding viewers!!

[@OldE5]

Great interview with Lance Roberts. To boil down what he was saying - This is not the time to be certain about anything. Volume is an indicator we should all be watching.

[@hunter2z]

Yes to pre-conversations or hidden files! would be interesting.

[@erinsmith824]

I second that!

[@daveforgot127]

@@erinsmith824 I third that!

[@johnborrelli7944]

One of the best interviews I have seen in a while, He gave reasonable expectations on how to best handle a volatile market.

[@srees9284]

Always interesting to hear Lance’s perspective on the market!

[@Bobabcdef]

Adam and Lance, you guys don't know how us retail investors appreciate this weekly recaps! Priceless! 🙏

[@reinhardb9757]

Lance is among your most interesting guests. Great content. Thanks and greetings from good old Europe

[@tosty931]

The fun part begins when the yield curve inverts..

[@Not_So_Weird_in_Austin]

And creates havoc when it un-inverts!

[@brendanobrien6943]

Eurodollar futures curve already did once. Not sure what transition from LIBOR will do.

[@moe331]

The 20, 30 year treasury already inverted

[@sheilajohnson7359]

Love Lance! I’m in Houston and I listen to his show daily.

[@charlygriffin2828]

I do find these interviews very informative at the end of the week, please keep doing them

[@scottdavis2284]

Thanks SO MUCH for doing these at the end of each week!!!

[@alfredepding974]

I enjoy Lance's commentary and I find it useful. Great guest.

[@chloemaxwell2628]

I love this series, very insightful!

[@Shane7492]

Love Lance. I could listen to him all day long.

[@johnk1984]

Very good interview with some very well reasoned technical analysis. The contrarian question is a huge one. Most analysts are expecting the Fed to come roaring in to the rescue when / if the markets sell off 25 to 30%. A contrarian view is that the Fed won't be able to do that because of inflation, and that's where we will probably get a bigger sell off as Jeremy Grantham is predicting. His long term channel going back decades has the US market in a super bubble of 3 standard deviations from the mean. Just to get back into the channel from these massive highs will see a bigger sell off than 25 or 30%. The contrarian view is that the Fed will not be able or willing to do a 2018 / 2020 pivot. Another contrarian position is that the huge tech companies will sell off more than 25% because most people think they won't or can't sell off by that much. 'They are too big and successful..', etc, etc. Antitrust legislation?

[@wapphigh5250]

Sure markets are obviously expensive, but the biggest contrarian view as said in this and and in a previous interview with David Hunter, is the market could still go up to a blow off top as the FED chickens out of it's hawkish stance - worrying about tigening into a recession...Nobody knows and has a crystal ball and Nobody blows a whistle at the top. IMO/NA

[@bob.bishop]

So everyone will liquidate into real negative +6% interest government bonds. Genius!

[@johnk1984]

@@bob.bishop If you take the real inflation rate as calulated by Shadow Stats, the negative real yield on the 30 year US Treasury is around -12 / -13 %.

[@wapphigh5250]

@@bob.bishop yes exactly. What you need in this environment are *quality* assets and gov bonds are NOT quality assets! Just MO

[@sivi9741]

@@bob.bishop Well -6% temporary lost in bonds is better than losing a 30-50% in stocks during a crash ? And u can get some gold if not treasuries .

[@ridzuanali1919]

Thank you, Adam and Lance 🙏

[@Not_So_Weird_in_Austin]

2nd comment I saw something about shorting, toxic selling and algos not preventing rapid down slides. Any thing to this?

[@Pelican5077]

Hi Adam. One thing I would like Lance to address relates to his short positions using SH and SDS. In looking at those offerings, and how they differ from say a short like SQQQ. They seem far riskier, not just because they are 2x or 3x inverse, but because they are structured to “beat” the index on a daily basis, versus over the longer haul. I’m not sure I totally understand what that means. But my takeaway is if one is going to short an index with SH or SDS or a similar ETF it needs to be monitored very closely. Thanks.

[@karelhavel4205]

Hi Adam, this is the best weekly show!! Lance is exellent !Please let him comment on technical analysis of gold / silver, Thank you

[@80sruler]

New subscriber and enjoyed the interview

[@nikolaichumakov8247]

Dear Adam, Thank you and team for the great and useful content! May I ask few questions? Local finance experts in Russia are talking a lot about geo politics as the on of main possible risk for markets, not only for local but US and world also. What do you think? How geo politics can impact for US economy? I convinced, that digital transfarmation and pandemic axelerated grow rate of new retail inverstors around of the world. In Russia buy stocks became very popular and easy to do via smartphone. What is impcact of new international retail investors around of the world for US stocks market? Thank you!)

[@landacrossamerica]

Hi Adam- some other of your analysts, including some of the ones at your wealthion conference, have mentioned moving into bonds as a hedge going forward, like Lance is mentioning. Danielle DiMartino Booth had mentioned also about Municipal Bonds in some cities performing very well. Would you be interested in doing an explainer video about those? I would like to learn more about bonds and I really trust the content you provide here on Wealthion. Thank you for your consideration.

[@just_joc]

Thank you. Excellent interview, excellent insights, looking forward to more!

[@alondashut2028]

Really good stuff here! I love Lance Roberts, thank you so much for creating this series! can't wait fo the next one!

[@aricbrown3033]

Yo Adam do you guys have any wealthion Merch? I appreciate this channel a lot and would like to support.

[@Wealthion]

Thanks for the kind sentiment, Aric. We don't, at least not yet. And TBH, the best way to support us is to take prudent steps to improve your financial situation -- that's why we created Wealthion. Or if you're already in good shape money-wise, introduce someone who isn't to our content. But out of curiosity, what W merch would you be most interested in having?

[@aricbrown3033]

I would for sure sport a wealthion hoodie and coffee mug!

[@bruce7992]

Excellent commentary!

[@AZWings]

Thanks. Really appreciate this weekly show.

[@adamjonsson]

Love these weekly chats

[@dkvikingkd233]

Great and I for one would love to hear much more about bonds:)

[@zarrwolf]

The preamble would be great :)

[@billjames3030]

Excellent interviews. My favorite channel. 👍 Keep up the great work.

[@guiart4728]

Great info!!! Sums up my thoughts. Thanks!!!

[@robdoubleyou4918]

Initial candid conversation would be good to include. 👍

[@contrariankairos9845]

Frankly, you do a wonderful job with this channel!

[@benstewart1152]

Yes please show us the chats before the show, the hidden files would be great.

[@marylapiatek557]

How we can purchase corporate bonds?

[@tonylewis3472]

Great wisdom. Thanks.

[@sensenisok]

Great guest,

[@TheDanSurv]

These weekly updates are very good. Love the no-man’s-land explanation. And I’d love the in depth on the marginal buyer.

[@JohnboyFortin]

Wealthion "Hidden Files"? What a great idea.

[@somejohndoe3004]

Hell yes, we want the pre recording stuff !!

[@Celeste-yl8ur]

blooper reel? sounds wonderful!

[@JureGrahek]

Do you think that the IRS change of reporting rules also affected PayPal's stock price?

[@sivi9741]

Great show For context purpose . Facebook lost in a night , around a third of the “old” bail out of the 🇺🇸 banks in 2008 that was though to be unimaginable amount of money at that time . That is how far money printing went since then in a little over a decade ! When the dominos start falling …. Gold here we come !

[@julesr7830]

Totally on board with not owning FB lol

[@madebeen]

These are becoming my fave vids of the week

[@tradingknowledge4868]

Don't mind the length at all. In fact, would watch even if it went for 2+ hrs

[@nunodasilva4853]

Great interview with Lance...David Hunter...the clock is ticking

[@elephantmoney]

Great episode

[@carriermaster1]

This weekly sessions should become a credited courses. I don’t catch everything like college days in the classroom but knowledge accumulation may make me a wise person. Maybe!!

[@bpmattic9648]

Exhausting times to follow the markets. All the same I’d rather be working hard and humbly strategizing than blissfully unaware. Programs like yours have me, again humbly, feeling more like I’m a setting a trap versus about to walk into one. Maybe we lose the tip of our tail but avoid the poison?

[@qwe-vj4qj]

This was one of the best episodes

[@mcoz7557]

Adam, you rock!

[@Bltnetwork]

Hidden file takes…love it!

[@shawnflannery9708]

Blooper reel definitely

[@yangbomb2]

Great way to listen to the wise not to feel bad about my portfolio 😂 thanks as always!

[@Milhouse77BS]

Thanks

[@N20Joe]

I'm pretty sure that Zuckerberg read/watched Ready Player One and thought: "That's a great idea!"

[@CyrptoDeb]

I WANT the BLOOPER REEL!!!

[@Michael-qy1jz]

He is correct that we still had stimulus and tax credits that are going bye bye for 4th qtr earning. Euro Futures Still Inverted and 2 & 10s compressed to the 60s range heading down fast.

[@PA3APH]

Yesss!! Show us your hidden files!

[@miguelmachado3259]

Wealthion B-Sides Unplugged

[@stephenadams2397]

If the pre-conversations are gold. Imagine how good the pre-pre-conversations will be.

[@keithgrey4661]

Always interested in BLOOPERS

[@carriecahill2130]

People are talking about a crash, however, very few are selling or rebalancing their portfolios.

[@wdftre111]

We'd happily take a blooper reel!

[@MsTyrie]

If bearish trader sentiment is a contrarian indicator now, why wasn't the overwhelmingly bullish sentiment in the prior 7 quarters a yellow flag? If fear in the market is a bullish indicator, that suggests the fear isn't warranted and those who are fearful are either misinformed or just plain stupid. That's not saying capitulation isn't a worthwhile indicator. But sentiment isn't usually misplaced.

[@gabrielw7773]

A 4% bounce from the lows isn't being correct a bounce. Being correct the bounce would be if we start up trending again and get back above key MA's on institutional buying volume. Short covering isn't correct a bounce. Bounces need to be correctly identified as short covering or new money coming in and his definition is too generic and general that most could easily get correct.

[@SCOTT-ki3ve]

Mr Robert's should talk to Bill Fleckenstein about bonds.

[@SCOTT-ki3ve]

This is NOT 2018. It's closer to 450AD

[@revpgesqredux]

Markets are hollowed out.... Dollar hollowed out

[@johnlandau7111]

One or another Federal agency can and almost certainly will prevent the market from undergoing a complete collapse. The one thing that could destroy the market is what Jeremy Grantham calls an “exogenous event,” or what others have called a “black swan” event. Possible exogenous events in the near future are a Russian invasion of Ukraine, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, or both invasions happening simultaneously. Other possible exogenous events could be an outbreak of a full-scale war between Israel and her enemies, led by Iran; or a war between India and a Pakistani-Chinese alliance; or the outbreak of a major new plague brought on by a new pathogen even more deadly than CV19-2. Several such pathogens have been reported and/or anticipated in recent days in isolated outbreaks, or as possible evolutions of for-now relatively harmless pathogens.

[@AnytimeIncome]

Isn't U.S. GDP projected at like 1% for Q1 and literally almost all companie's earning s call over the last few months are projecting less growth in 2022. Add that in with the FED trying to tame inflation. Hedge accordingly.

[@alexum35]

Give us the blooper reels!

[@ryanrayner8143]

Hidden files great ideas

[@stevemar8027]

It’s a big assumption that if the fed does not hike or backs off a couple hikes that the market will react favourably…

[@A_D624]

Bonds are not gaining value in extreme inflation scenario

[@medvedwanders9627]

My vote for “hidden files” :)

[@paulc.3333]

For a single income family making a little less than median income, last year's stimmy could easily have been 10% or more of their income for the year.

[@2yum]

etf corn, weat and soyb will make you rich

[@nonratio8785]

You can piffle around and go against or with the major narrative, at the end it is all speculative.

[@paulsommerhalder9049]

He likes Treasury Bonds...in an inflationary world....

[@Ryan_Tinney]

Treasuries are a true safe haven. No matter the yield when equities are crashing treasuries will rise then you can rebalance into equities. Always good to have some safe havens in your portfolio.

[@paulsommerhalder9049]

@@Ryan_Tinney Yes, I guess if you want to buy the 2 year Treasury at 1.31%, you'll only lose 4% to inflation, which is better than enduring a stock market crash where you'll lose 10% on top of inflation. Are Treasuries really a safe haven?, I'm not sure who, besides the Fed, is buying the 10 year Treasuries....it's so counter-intuitive and visually bad, it just might be the perfect place to-be.

[@Ryan_Tinney]

@@paulsommerhalder9049 When you have more money than you can spend a guaranteed return on your principal is nice. Also if you are not in the US is also is a hedge against your home country currency, very similar to why many people buy Swiss treasury bonds. There are many people who have enough money to live on and just want their principle safe. Yes I surely would love higher rates on my safe assets but that is just not the world we have at the moment. But in a well diversified portfolio having that negative correlation to equity will really feel good if and when the stock market goes through hell.

[@tysonbay1]

My call is head and shoulders down to 3600ish. 100% of voters are hurt by inflation while less than 100% of voters hurt by a market crash.

[@sivi9741]

Seem Mike green was dead right . As passive investing grows in aggregate, volatility to the downside will increase overtime since not many active buyer will be there to buy on the downside . Seem Facebook got A taste of that .

[@2yum]

0.5 raise isn't enough. You got ez money for years , you either did something with it or it is too late.

[@sivi9741]

Great show For context purpose . Facebook lost a third of the bail out need it if the 🇺🇸 banks in 2008 . That is how far money printing went …. Gold here we come !

[@BatmanBoss]

Release the hidden files lol

[@gabrielw7773]

More people know what to look for now since 2000 and 2008 crashes is the reason why everyone is bearish. So I don't think that argument holds up anymore of you should be bullish because everyone is bearish. Besides it's the smart money that is bearish not the dumb money they are all still bullish. So more are bullish the market still because they are the ones who buy on the pullback all of the time. It's the retail crowd that you want to be contrarian to and they are all bullish.

[@michaelfelli7661]

In the 1980s, Fed Volker held wall street by the balls. Today, though, wall street holds Fed Powell by the balls. Come March, we will see if Powell (and by association, Biden) has the (ahem) balls to stand up to wall street and do what's best for America (and millennials, Gen Z). I put the odds in favor of wall street, not the Fed.

[@rof8200]

Inflation is over 10% and interest rates are below 2%. We're probably going to melt up ☝️

[@gabrielw7773]

The fed will have no choice. They can just sit there and try to lower rates, but the bond market will force their hands. They can cut and cut, but the bond market will over rule them. Where are they going to cut from zero?

[@Mauitaoist]

I do like Lance however, Thinking that it's not going to crash just because people think it's going to crash, could be the biggest mistake you ever make

[@merlinwizard1000]

4th

[@paulc.3333]

Bit Pop FTW

[@guyetlaurence7142]

Good interview, but please give more room to the guests. It's OK to summarize key points, but excessive commentary really takes away! Thanks