Weighing When to Check or Bet with BIG Hands

In this video, Bart and a CLP subscriber discuss the merits of checking vs. betting on the river as the board pairs. Factoring in configuration, ranges, and how checking out of position seems like it may give missed draws an opportunity to bluff. Bart explains how the opponent is likely going to be too afraid on this run out to bluff or bet thin so a bet here is the best play to get called by worse.
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0:00 - Intro
2:16 - Preflop
3:42 - Flop
8:00 - Turn
11:15 - River
15:49 - Hero Decision
17:01 - Reveal
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[@CrushlivePoker]

The villian checking back is imperical evidence that you can't rely on your opponents to bluff often enough. When you can potentially get called by worse, it will usually be more profitable to simply bet (choosing a sizing worse can call)

[@afwaller]

Empirical

[@jeffshackleford3152]

I agree. Most people are way too passive to bluff river. If your opponent is good or likes to battle it might be better to check.

[@qazzaqstan]

@@jeffshackleford3152 I like villain's check back as a give up (granted much less once I know hero's range can contain K7hh) because I don't think hero should really have 8Xhh or much KXhh from SB given the Qh and Jh are blocked. Which obviously means yeah I'm in favor of betting from up front. Interestingly once hero's pre-flop range is that wide I understand why he is assuming a much higher bluffing frequency,

[@jeffshackleford3152]

​@@qazzaqstanyou won't necessarily know that at the time unless you see him show it. As well as I have definitely VPIP some things that I wouldn't normally as an iso to get in a pot with weak players. I think you can VPIP K7s from certain positions, but I basically exclusively play 6 max cash online, so idk much about 9 hand. I probably should have stated it more clearly, most players at these stakes, are so scared to put money in the middle. Like I might find it easier to convince some people to let me pull a tooth with pliers, than it would be to get them to put money in the pot without the nuts. Like I think AK would be the nuts on this board, so they would never put any money in unless they had that. I do disagree with not block betting here though, like 25% pot, depending on the player of course, because you know they will want to call but they would never call an all in. If you check and it is a very high likelihood they check back, you win the same amount of money as if they had folded to the block bet, at least they might pay you off in that case. You would have to do it with the idea that if you get raised, you are calling, even if you think he might only have AK in that spot.

[@accessdeniedx2]

As a CLP sub, where is the best place to watch these on Mondays live?

[@SeanBenson23]

Super entertaining discussion of this river spot by two incredibly competent players. Great conversation, gentlemen

[@Rodomonteventura]

I really like the new text graphic describing the betting rounds!

[@MrTjthorso]

Imma update my list of questionable poker terminologies with "sloppy pre" This was also a great video to learn from.

[@ticenits1926]

FYI donkbets are almost always “feeler bets” with some marginal pair by fish who don’t like the idea of check calling, and for some reason think Bet folding is the superior play. It likely has to do with the fact that most live fish feel that winning the hand means making your opponent fold rather than getting them to call with worse

[@user-ww3wv4us9g]

Where I play. Donk lead is by top pair weak kicker because they have 'top pair' and they don't understand that their kicker has an impact....yes. I play with fish. Which makes taking their money so easy.

[@TheTree1]

Yes it's usually one pair often top pair.

[@bradleyhines604]

No brainer all in. Nobody would ever fold an ace here. And I don't think you can induce a bluff here because villain's most likely missed draw is KXhh, which is probably never gonna bluff because it has showdown value.

[@ticenits1926]

Heroes mistake was using contradictory logic; if villain is likely to Bet his trips, then he’s certainly likely to call with them as well. Whether or not he bluffs missed draws is debatable, but truth be told most live players just don’t have it in them. Let’s target his range and not just wishful thinking about his tendencies.

[@defaultuser1]

They played it exactly like the loose passive players I saw all over. I personally bet smaller on flop to keep Ax low in (donk bet tends to be A3-A7 here). Bigger bet on turn due to double flush draw and possibility of Ax diamonds being out there. If you get to the river 3 ways, bet big. If the heart draw is all that's likely left, bet 15% of pot to make Kx pay to see it. I have around 4k hours at the lodge, so this is based on my experiences there.

[@jamiealexander7065]

4,000 hours??? You need other hobbies bro.

[@jambreakfast4341]

@@jamiealexander7065says the guy that is yapping at KZbin comments 😂

[@jamiealexander7065]

@@jambreakfast4341 so are you dummy.

[@jeffshackleford3152]

I think for most of that player type it would be easier to convince them to let you pull a tooth with pliers, then it is to get most of them to put any money in the pot. The fact that guy hasn't folded tells you he at least has something, unless he is a mega station.

[@willh4340]

Whether I check or bet always depends on the players I'm playing against, how likely they are to call/bluff/check back, how wet the board is, and how likely it is that somebody got a piece of it, and all sorts of factors

[@PaperPlateParody]

I would check back A8s and A2s before I'd check back 22 and even then I'd most likely jam. 22 is a pure jam in my opinion.

[@joshmullins4849]

I think flatting anything from +2 vs +1 open after a straddle is losing. Full stop. Assuming the table is even moderately decent behind you, it’s a pure 3bet or fold spot so I kind of immediately question that this is one of the strongest regs at the table. Since this happened, it’s hard to range villain effectively. I’m not particularly worried about A8s or A2s as played. Maybe 88 traps flop but I think all of the 2 pair plus hands are mostly shoving turn on such a wet texture, so I see very minimal chance that you lose on river. Given that, it’s a clear rip and hope to get paid by whatever Ax villain has in range imo.

[@drewmartin6240]

I think him flatting the turn eliminates a lot of Ax from villains range, therefore I think check river is most plus ev

[@brickcitybeatdown]

I think the variable implied odds of the reverse cowgirl justify clicking back and jamming river all in

[@talullahtheegyptianbaladyd4388]

So what reputation do "Euro's" have overthere? Im from the Netherlands and supercurious to know how they view us 😂

[@buggaboo2707]

A2d is my guess at his hand @11:41 I'm almost always wrong though, lol and I'd bet small and fold to a reraise

[@EllieBanks333]

There could not possibly be a re-raise, just a raise.

[@buggaboo2707]

@@EllieBanks333 fair enough, I should have "fold to raise"

[@brickcitybeatdown]

​@@EllieBanks333donkey

[@pot_kivach160]

14:44 (havent seen any further of this video), Is it possible of V holding the nuts, the way he played and his profile? AK, pocket 88, pocket A8, even A2 would've played the same way. So: would River bet blocker do? ($550). And fold to any shove. Too many options I could lose here. And, AT, AJ, AQ, would not dare to bluff, but would've pay some bets.

[@michaelb4090]

I love dueces no one ever thinks set 🎉 and if ya raise pre you can rep a lot of boards

[@rcadegaming9123]

Solid content

[@colingenge9999]

I believe his opponent could have Kx hearts but not QJ hearts where he’d think you have A2 a lot of the time.

[@sc0mo786]

I watched a poker pro open AQ off UTG, call a 3-bet from the button, then call down every street, and lose his whole stack to AA on a Queen high board.... Who was this mystery man?

[@NKKK19]

Nobody has naked Ax here as played. It’s A8/A2s or a busted combo draw. Period. Ez x/call.

[@danielmeuler2877]

The Old Me is checking this hand back on the river, thinking I am smart. The new studied me, is betting at least 1/3rd of my stack. And depending on the player, I may Jam. I would Jam WAY before I would ever check.

[@jamiealexander7065]

You should first try to understand that you can't check back first to act.

[@stevenmcwilliam6945]

Not sure why they are positive he didn’t have ace king.

[@OOLPOKER]

What’s Bart’s least favorite European Ethnicity?

[@stefancopicuk]

Right. Im curious as what is meant by Bart when he uses the term "Euro"

[@vlad583]

Why is it much worse against a donker than a preflop raiser?

[@EllieBanks333]

I guess we are considering the villain a fishy fish here. Or are people really flatting a +1 open with 6 people behind them with much AX junk? And then calling a flop donker with AX junkers 5 ways, and then calling a big check-raise from SB?? Let me in, let me in...

[@gabrielrockman]

At what point in the hand would you play AQ off, AJ off, and maybe even A10 off different from how the villain played it?

[@EllieBanks333]

@@gabrielrockman Sorry for the delay. By the time I saw your post I needed to re-watch the video to be clear on the details. Anyways.... I definitely do not see AQ & AT as the same hand range, especially from +2. If I was the villain I'd have raised AQ pre. I'd mostly fold AT in that spot pre. I would be flatting pre as villain did with AJ. On the flop though, I'd be laying down for either the donk or hero's check-raise with AJ, depending on my view of those players. I do see the donk-fold by the straddle as a very weak play, so I might have a very low opinion of that player.

[@gabrielrockman]

@@EllieBanks333 So you would call a raise with AJ preflop, and then fold it to a donk bet on a A-8-2 flop with two hearts after the preflop opener folds? Or fold it after the SB check-raises? And that's apparently the only Ace you'd ever show up with in that situation, because you would raise AQ for value preflop, but fold A-10? I think I am a bit of a nit, but you're even more of a nit than I am if you're never calling on the flop with just top pair.

[@FlabbyButter]

BART I love you but something I noticed. You look much older than you did two years ago? Just wondering what’s up? You stressed?

[@1sgqxaAwebvsx-ui2so]

😂

[@shirozi1]

Being european sounds a bit over the top calling Euro's playing in NA games an "infestation" :D like we are some sort of parasite or virus. This is very nasty rhetorically speaking. I do realise it also means you would much rather play against NA players in general since you deem them less skilled in this context but still.