What a WILD Housing Market We Have Right Now

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Күн бұрын

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@JasonWalter1 Ай бұрын

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@Wooohooohooo Ай бұрын

Excellent news, pointless to buy now while inventory is slowly increasing & most current listings are still overvalued.

@user-ob4em4ge6c Ай бұрын

Home values are declining rapidly throughout Massachusetts.

@jamesosteen09 Ай бұрын

What a stupid housing market we have right now. People need to stop buying at these insanely high prices. I understand some have to move and have no choice but a lot don’t and they are doing it just because they want a new house. I’ve wanted a new house for three years now but I’m not doing it with these dumb prices.

@cyrusm3391 Ай бұрын

You know there are other healthier ways to cope rather than speculating by saying "people want something new".

@ErnieBert-eg8kd Ай бұрын

It sucks that prices are so high but just remember just because it’s unaffordable to you does not mean it is for someone else. I would like to sell my current house and move up to a larger house but I bought it in 2010 for 185k. Its worth 550 now. I did remodel everything. I just can’t bring myself to quadruple my payment to do so. I refinanced into a 15 year loan in 2021 at. 2.3% rate. I only owe 50k and my payment is 600$ a month not including taxes and insurance. My wife and I are just saving until we can buy at under a 2500$ a month mortgage. If we can’t we will just stay put. There is absolutely nothing wrong with wanting a new home. My home is a starter home. I want a larger newer more high end house. I only made 52k a year when I bought. My wife and I earn 330k a year. Now that my household income is 6x what it was I have a right to buy a new house as I can afford it. I don’t really like my neighbors and my house is on a busy street in a blue collar town.

@jamesosteen09 Ай бұрын

@@cyrusm3391that’s not speculation. I said some have to move and don’t have a choice and some are spending to get a new home when they really don’t have to. The wants vs needs argument. Maybe you should read things more clearly before you comment on them :p

@Ja56780 Ай бұрын

@@jamesosteen09there are a few people here that don’t completely read the comment when it doesn’t fit their narrative. You aren’t wrong for holding off when less than 20 percent of the population can realistically afford a home. I want to upgrade, but I’m staying put in a townhome until something gets better. It’s ridiculous when someone makes twice the local household income on their own, yet the payment would come out to 40 percent or more of their gross income.

@jamesosteen09 Ай бұрын

@@ErnieBert-eg8kdI would also say youre approaching it with a well thought out plan and preparing. Many aren’t doing that and they are jumping into mortgages they can’t afford.

@Urgurl514 Ай бұрын

Your last video said inventory decreasing now you say going up. You guys have no idea

@JasonWalter1 Ай бұрын

Let me explain: inventory is up YOY but Redfin is showing that it peaked in June (i.e. it's been coming down week to week for a few weeks now).

@kingbradentucky Ай бұрын

So much mixed data that conflicts with each other. And I do not have special insight but it appears in Sarasota/Bradenton that a lot of listing got pulled.

@jonathantaylor6926 Ай бұрын

Housings biggest liability is a FED rate cut.... not working. If the FED cuts early (highly probable) and then inflation heats back up, there will be pure and total chaos. The only reason the 10 year UST is trading at 4.17% is because a lot of traders are currently renting these longer dated bonds. They are doing this because the conventional wisdom is that rates are going to come back down in the near future- and bond price is inverse of yield. These traders have no intention to hold these bonds to maturity. This is important because if inflation heats back up and the future of rates becomes "uncertain" then all this "rental" demand for 5-30's goes away and that will spike yields much higher. IMO the 10 year could hit 6.5% which will put mortgage rates into the 9's with very good credit. Inflation is in charge.

@cebrinachandler1708 Ай бұрын

Well put sir, gave me a semester course in 1 minute 👌🏽

@wreckim Ай бұрын

The most shocking thing that you've mentioned a few times in your channel Jason is that we had a 'Sharp Correction' in prices in 2022. I don't ever remember a sharp correction here locally in Vent. County....so maybe other areas are more unstable.

@ctrlaltkys7514 Ай бұрын

Sharp corrections occurred in many pandemic hot spots. about 20% off peak pricing which occurred in 2022 for those markets (keep in mind these markets were up 50-80% from 2019 pricing) . So they are still quite elevated relative to 2019 pricing, even after a 20% correction off the peak.

@JasonWalter1 Ай бұрын

In CA, the median sale price fell by 18% from peak in 2022 to trough (early 2023) and pandemic hot spots such as Austin fell even more.

@thejacenxpress Ай бұрын

Get this guy to 100k subscribers!!!

@JasonWalter1 Ай бұрын

We're getting close!

@vayduong6806 Ай бұрын

I just did

@billricheter5678 Ай бұрын

Rates should not go down. We are at historical norms. People just want free money

@gormanthomas8135 Ай бұрын

Agreed! Just when people were sobering up, the Fed is going to spike the punch bowl again. Hmmmm?

@ctrlaltkys7514 Ай бұрын

@@gormanthomas8135 Not how it works at all. The Fed does not set long term interest rates (the market sets them), they only set short term interest rates. If the Fed wants to push rates lower on long term bonds, they will need to restart their bond buying program (was called QE in the past). Of course buying bonds means printing money when the Fed does it, and printing money leads to long term inflationary problems as everyone seems to finally be aware. Do not confuse short and long rates though, because they are entirely different animals. We have an "inverted yield curve" right now, which means the Fed has the ability to lower short term rates quite a bit without having much substantive effect on long term rates.

@kraxkill4747 Ай бұрын

@@ctrlaltkys7514exactly! This person gets it. I explain this almost daily as bond trader/investor. The Fed/Treasury are working to uninvert the yield curve and it may very well come at the expense of long duration yields many expect to fall in unison with short duration as (if) the Fed eventually cuts. Lower rates mean more inflationary duration risk so bond (long duration) buyers demand higher yields. You can easily see this (short duration down long duration keeping up) illustrated by looking at the yield curve change and direction from last year to this year on just talk of rate cuts alone. Marketwatch has a great illustration (of this vs last year) if you pull up the yield for the 3-6m t-bills and scroll down that shows the entire curve and change.

@gormanthomas8135 Ай бұрын

My reply got deleted. Hilarious!

@tonynelson6269 Ай бұрын

Can you give us the numbers for California specifically. Can you tell us how many homes are in the market last year at the same time in California as opposed to what's on the market now? Thank you.

@JasonWalter1 Ай бұрын

I posted two videos last week with a CA market update :)

@renelopez2244 Ай бұрын

More inventory. Yay 🎉🎉🎉

@ernestconnell8087 Ай бұрын

Complete chaos, whoa

@danielalonzo7445 Ай бұрын

I guess the realtor mantra " we are not building enough housing" has gone out the window. Please can you confirm that we have p[lenty of available housing

@JasonWalter1 Ай бұрын

Inventory varies by the region, state, county and neighborhood. On a national level, we have plenty of new home construction for sale. In TX and FL, they have more existing homes for sale compared to 2019 (and more than anytime for at least the past 5 years) and that's causing YOY home price declines in some metros. In contrast, in California we still have fewer existing homes for sale than we did at this time in 2022. Real estate is local. Great question though.

@Steverz32 Ай бұрын

Happy Tuesday Jason Walter 😊I see spreadsheets!🤣😂🤣

@JasonWalter1 Ай бұрын

Happy Tuesday, Steve!

@PelicanIslandLabs Ай бұрын

No more crazy froth along the Cali central coast. Houses in the $1.25-2M range still selling quickly but above that price point it gets much harder. Lots of price reductions on the $4M (and above) sector.

@colinsmyers6264 Ай бұрын

If only this can happen in the Northeast too.

@SigFigNewton Ай бұрын

Do y’all have too many NIMBYs? Why no construction?

@ctrlaltkys7514 Ай бұрын

I wonder if this period is a good corollary to the 2006-07 market peak. Where some local markets are/were still tight and prices hadn't started falling much. If your market is still affordable AND has low inventory don't expect much of a correction yet. But markets where inventory is rising, and demand remains tepid, expect big price reductions by year end. What people don't seem to understand is that demand for mortgages has REMAINED at a 40 year low for 18 months now. The only thing keeping prices elevated in some areas, is the extremely low inventory numbers. But there are local markets where active listings have reach the pre-pandemic supply levels of inventory. Those markets are facing serious problems! There is very little demand at current prices (as demonstrated by rising inventory). I expect we will look back on this early warning signs of a national housing correction. You need to remember, the 2006-07 peaks started in a very similar manner, where demand/supply was out of wack in a handful of regions and as that market imploded, lending tightened and real estate crunch spread. Yes, owners have more equity then ever, and defaults are currently low, but that was also true in early 2006 and the years proceeding the peak. So things can change quickly, especially when inventory/demand is grossly out of wack in big pockets of the real estate market.

@kraxkill4747 Ай бұрын

Inventory levels and mortgage rates are completely irrelevant to price. These are myths continually peddled by agent brokers. These affect whom gets to buy, how they buy and how long the house sits before it is sold. They don’t affect final price. If this was true, 3rd world real estate where affordability is only for the richest 1%, rates are unimaginable and homes sit sometimes for years yet prices are no less astronomical. This is because homes track inflation not these “volume”, transaction count or middleman stats. Inventory levels have to spike by 500% overnight the way they did in 08 (GFC) and coincide with forced liquidation to drive down price. We simply don’t have those conditions today. We have a normal market where prices simply track monetary expansion or the m2 and inventory for sale is locked with 3% golden handcuffs.

@ctrlaltkys7514 Ай бұрын

@@kraxkill4747 I know what M2 is and you are making far too simplistic of a methodology to ascertain fair value of an entire asset class. We wouldnt take a long term chart of M2 and say this is exactly what the SP500 is worth. Sure, they have an impact on the valuations, because Money Supply affects value, but they can diverge massively for extended periods of time. Just because a correlation is high for 5 years, 10, or even 20+ isnt necessarily going to accurately predict rolling 10 year periods after that. And generally, most people only care about 5-10 year time frames when it comes to investments. Now sure, some tiny percent of people stay put for 30 years. So OK, for them maybe its a bit different. On the other hand, inventory relative to demand in residential real estate is HIGHLY predictive of short term pricing adjustments. So I am not sure why you are so negative about it. Perhaps some real estate agent who doesn't understand what they are talking about attempted to give you bad advice on a faulty understanding of supply/demand (or perhaps the data just rapidly changed?) and this has tainted your views. But over the years I have had an easy time predicting small pricing adjustments up/down in local markets based upon supply/demand metrics. Secondly, mortgage rates are NOT irrelevant to price, AT ALL. There is a ton of evidence that monthly payments assumed by the buyer are the PRIMARY driving force behind demand at a given price point. Plenty of Wall Street analysts such as Meredith Whitney and Michael Burry have talked extensively about this issue for 20 years with tons of data to support it, if you care to look into it further.

@kraxkill4747 Ай бұрын

⁠@@ctrlaltkys7514in my view expecting prices to fall is like hoping inflation disappears but the post covid money printing, home price increases and even the recent contraction while the m2 was shrinking is very correlated (expanding again). About the only time it wasnt was during the GFC and that was driven mostly by forced liquidations of bad loans and assets which don’t represent a functional market environment. My argument is that if affordability metrics like rates mattered to real estate pricing (they don’t and I’ll gladly email you a spreadsheet to show this) then we should have seen price declines a long time ago (years) as affordability has never been worse. Rates control whom and how homes are bought not the price. I tried to verify this by plotting data going back to 1969 to today and there is zero correlation between rate change direction and home price change. This is something realtors and brokers have assumed but frankly haven’t backed up. Within the period I mention I found rates falling and prices falling as well as rates rising and prices rising almost more often than I found an inverse correlation.

@ctrlaltkys7514 Ай бұрын

@@kraxkill4747 Yeah, I understand what you are trying to do here, but you are applying the logic incorrectly. Rates don't matter over long rolling 10-20 year periods with regard to real estate pricing, but they matter dramatically in 1-5 year periods and there is plenty of data to support this. Furthermore, this rate adjustment is the largest on record in terms of % change and speed of this change. There is nothing like it in US history, EVER. Rates went from nearly 3% to nearly 8% in a year. It is the ROC (Rate of Change) that matters here. On top of this, some markets, but not all, experienced rapid price appreciation right before the rates spiked, making them particularly vulnerable to a potential crash due to affordability changing shockingly fast (rate spike). rates going from 3% to 8% is much more impactful then rates going from 8% to 13%. So you have to understand that when you are looking back at data. The question would be, what was the base from which it rose, and what were real estate prices rising incredibly fast BEFORE rates rose? Try to find a time where pricing doubled in a 3-5 years and then after that mortgage rates rocketed 150% higher? You wont find one. You will find periods where rates changed 20% in a year (say from 10% to 12%), and pricing went up/down 5%. Because its about affordability!

@kraxkill4747 Ай бұрын

@@ctrlaltkys7514 you can create an anonymous email in iOS (if you have iPhone) make one and I’ll email you a spreadsheet with YoY rate and RE price changes. I think you’d be surprised. Rate vs Price is the biggest real estate myth there is. I spent quite a bit of time on this.

@FeliPeltier Ай бұрын

Can't wait to see the Airbnb market get wrecked

@seestuff09 Ай бұрын

Unemployment will be 5% by EOY

@reconmarketupdate Ай бұрын

This is crazy!

@RealAmericanPatri0t Ай бұрын

the crash is happening!!!!

@JasonWalter1 Ай бұрын

I disagree. In order for a crash to be happening, supply would have to FAR outpace demand. As I explained in today's video and yesterday's video, inventory is not surging.

@kraxkill4747 Ай бұрын

Look at m2 vs median existing sales price and stop guessing 😂. Affordability, days on market, inventory levels, price cuts from list, and rates don’t matter. They never have despite people’s false conclusions that they do. What matter are final sales prices. These non consequential metrics affect volume and therefore the pocketbook of the middleman. Therefore the market crash is in the pocket of the agent/broker. Home prices simply track inflation.

@Courtney-Alice-Gargani Ай бұрын

Inventory has to 10x for a crash. There will probably never be another 2008.

@ZeCroiSSanT950 Ай бұрын

We don't necessarily need another 2008, just a stall in the outrageous price increases for a few years.

@nitroneonicman Ай бұрын

Ten times 839k homes would be over 8 million active listings. That would be well over (double) 2008 levels.

@SigFigNewton Ай бұрын

False statement. Possible statement.

@ZeCroiSSanT950 Ай бұрын

@@tobyk5149 honestly thinking somewhere around the 1.3-1.5 range

@Truebaconluver Ай бұрын

Just here to say no crash...Just cause someone wants it to crash doesn't mean it will

@kraxkill4747 Ай бұрын

June median sales price just set a record. If you list a house 30% over market, leave it on the market longer, cut price by 20% and sell it for 10% over…the price still went up. Realtors need to stop representing the market with (volume) their own pocketbook which does in fact take a hit from reventure app style metrics like days on market, inventory change etc. Home prices simply track inflation, m2 and the expansion of money supply being REAL assets that home are. You can easily see the correlation in the post COVID m2 expansion, contraction and reaccelerstjon vs the median home sold.🎉