What Bill Winke Thinks Will Happen to the LAND MARKET

[@josephf7720]

I was bemoaning the price I paid for some land 24 years ago. A wise older man told me to not worry, time will take care of it. He was right.

[@KSN2019]

It pays to have good relationships with your neighbors. Purchased a large tract of prime property for a fraction of what whitetail properties is trying to sell land for around here! These companies are inflating the market in a horrible way.

[@aaronbeverly5783]

2nd this

[@jeffmichel4312]

Brokers realtors and sellers are all looking to drive the price as high as possible.

[@rubenroyer9488]

Let me remind you nobody puts a gun to the buyers head.

[@dholiday9315]

@@rubenroyer9488 Let me remind you that stupid people make greedy people more greedy…which makes smart people not be able to buy anything. 🤣

[@rubenroyer9488]

@@dholiday9315, I can remember 30 years ago wanting to buy recreational land in Illinois for $700 an acre, I thought that was expensive. I just paid $3820 an acre last month. It ain’t getting any cheaper.

[@travisbuege3913]

This is exactly what I did 2 years ago bought a smaller rec land make it hunt top notch. Now waiting for the next opportunity.

[@royguidry1311]

Land prices have certainly not hurt the farmers. I am friends with a pile of farmers. They farm their land for several reasons, some for family legacy (generational legacy), some for profit ( it’s the job they know), some are a mix of both but have a break out point, either their personal age or when their farm value hits a mark where they can sell and sustain a nice living through retirement. I do know that nearly all of them could sell and walk away with more money than they would know what to do with that makes a blue or white collar pension look stupid. Most are worth millions. For every farmer that wants out, there are several huge farmers who would step right up and add to their collection. What do they all have in common, paid for land.

[@melvinsacromentoe]

The last 5 years have been depressing for me seeing land prices skyrocket knowing I’m only a few years away from purchasing

[@AscendedRodent]

Story of my life

[@melvinsacromentoe]

@@AscendedRodent good luck brother

[@mbailey12341]

PPP fraud alone amounted to an estimated 650 BILLION of our taxpayer dollars. Remind me again why I’m paying 40% of what I work hard for into this broken corrupt system? 😢

[@moedog5087]

As a farmer and someone who has been following AG and recreational land prices I see land prices pulling back some in the next 2 years. Definitely agreeing with these guys

[@kapperoutdoors]

Very good insight guys, I've been wanting to own my own land since I was like 14 years old and when I became an adult I had a new state trooper job I could have bought land adjoining my house property for $500 and acre but everyone said that was crazy insane pricing. Now that same land is going for anywhere from $4,000 to 8,000 an acre. Of course through the years we have bought and sold land and almost every time we have paid more than I thought it was worth, but inflation does not stop! I always tell people who ask me if you have an interest in land find and make a way to buy it even though it seems expensive! Best of luck guys thanks

[@steveh7108]

Inflation may not stop but this is not a normal real estate boom based on inflation alone. During the Y2K scare a lot of city folks overpaid for land in the country and they lost their butts on it after everything settled back down. I predict that prices will never go down to what they were but they will certainly go down a lot once all over this craziness settles down and people start moving back to their precious cities.

[@Bone89]

@@steveh7108 I don’t see how it goes down a lot. Farmland is still rising. Maybe it plateaus. There’s too much competition with larger operations to get a great deal. Recreational land I assume is similar.

[@steveh7108]

@@Bone89 I see your point but when it comes to rural rugged country like the Ozarks or the Upper Peninsula of Michigan or any rule rugged land, it's not good for agricultural and the uses are fairly Limited. So when big city Folk buys it all up but usually doesn't take too long before they realize they can't take the country life and eventually move back to a city. Logging companies might buy that type of land to log it off but then they sell it pretty cheap after they've logged off all the good quality wood.

[@Bone89]

@@steveh7108 true. There are so many considerations and factors. 20-75 years we will start seeing the impact of depopulation. It’s already effecting other countries. They were saying 20% drops with next 2 generations. Probably be 10-15% with immigration. It’s hard to get accurate #s on housing. I just think of all the vacant homes/apartments. The old saying . When there’s blood on the streets buy land . There will be opportunities to make big $ like every recession . I just never have any capital to do so. Or I’m trying to stay afloat🤣. I am planning to sell farmland this year. But alot can happen . Will c

[@steveh7108]

@@Bone89 yeah I know exactly what you mean. I've always wanted more land and knew it was a good investment but I've always been struggling to stay afloat. Land isn't going to drop as drastically as it has before under the same circumstances that I mentioned but it is going to drop. But on the other hand the value of the dollar is dropping drastically so there is an increase in labor and wages as well. So if we were to gauge the price of land to Gold instead of the US dollar I think we will find the price of land is dropping already. I have already noticed land dropping around me as well as more foreclosures than 6 months ago. I think a lot of people foolishly refinanced their homes because of the values going up so high and now they can't afford to pay their new mortgage.

[@terrybrown2556]

Top quality ag ground in Indiana is over $15,000 an acre. Which means you need to be a multi-millionaire to be a farmer and if your a middleclass dude and you wanna find a decent tract of hunting ground lets say 100 acres, then you'd better be working some overtime or hit the lottery.

[@dougwallace2210]

I get it, land prices are up and some say unaffordable to the "regular" guy? - Well life is full of choices, in this LAND deal you have two, either find a way to own, or, come up with an excuse as why you can't...either way you'll be right.

[@jerimahjohnson8698]

Land and rec land is still a strong buy. Yesterday price is tomorrows bargain. I went to settlement on a fantastic farm 2 weeks ago the saw another last weekend and got it under contract. I'm buying everything I can afford thats GOOD. If not for the non resident owner tag law in Iowa I'd be buying there. In Ohio stuff is going under contract in days. My new place had not even hit the MLS and I had an offer on it in like 12 hours. The next day it had 3 solid offers and they accepted mine.

[@wasidanatsali6374]

I was looking in KY and getting outbid on every tract I tried to buy. One day I saw a tract I really, really liked on paper had come on the market. I was so ready to pull the trigger. I didn’t even go look at it on the ground. I immediately offered full price, cash, close ASAP, and happy that I got it. I’ve hunted it 3X now and love it more every time I go there.

[@derrickwarner9578]

As usual I enjoyed the video. Bill I appreciate you wanting to put out there how to get land. I've been trying to pursuade family members that I need to buy land now to have land later and I have always been told to wait because I'm young (31) and I have time. Well with prices skyrocketing they realize I was right as I try to struggle my way into land. Great videos love them

[@MountainRancher]

Don’t give up. I’ve been buying and selling my way up since 22. I’m 43 now and own over 200 acres. It’s not easy but tons of fun. My best deal to date was $170,000 profit on an 83 acre farm that I owned for 3 years. Best wishes

[@derrickwarner9578]

thank you very much. I hope so. I'm going to try

[@Paulannear]

It's only going up and up. Unfortunately, all the hunting media attention to land, and the purchase of recreational land, isn't helping. That's the honest truth. Despite the fact that I love channels like this. People who would've never thought about hunting or buying land are realizing it is a fantastic investment that they can afford, and re-sell to make a profit. This drives the price up. Unfortunately, small farmers now cannot afford to buy their own land. The collapse of the small, rural farmer is very sad.

[@bill-winke]

Paul, I think it's more than that. When farm land comes up for auction here in Iowa it is almost always other local farmers that buy it. In least around here. I think those top-heavy tillable prices are starting to turn lower.

[@Paulannear]

@@bill-winke interesting Bill. Yea there’s definitely other pieces to it, but I don’t know of many small farmers who can afford to buy land like they used to, generally speaking. Large farms, factory farms, that are essentially ‘big business’ certainly can afford it. The everyday farmer just cannot afford it anymore in the regions where I hunt. Times change certainly, and the everyday farmer has always struggled in a way, but now they really are. The amount of absentee landowners from Illinois/Madison/Milwaukee where I grew up is truly staggering.

[@bill-winke]

@@Paulannear It isn't the small farmers that are buying, unfortunately. The big keep getting bigger around here.

[@midwesternoutdoorsandnatur8272]

They talk about best to just get in the game when you can afford it. Unfortunately that’s the problem. Prices have soared out of most blue collar families budgets, and it’s almost in the unattainable category for the average workers pay. These investment opportunities are becoming literally a rich man’s game. All the while population explodes thanks to open borders. So more people to feed on the farm side and strong demand still on the rec side. Who knows if it will ever come down. Better hold on to what ya got.

[@wolfpack4128]

The value of hunting is really what is for sale. Hiking, riding ATVs, etc to a smaller degree. Hunting is going to turn into a two tiered activity. Those that hunt public land and those that are trying to create large tracts to grow big bucks. At that point the amount of hunters will drop, hunting won't be seen the same way it is now, it'll be more like hunting in the UK. Then over time the ranks of hunters will decrease and prices will stabilize. Until then, I can't see values do anything but go up. Barring something really bad in the economic sector or a war.

[@bill-winke]

Land is still a good investment because they aren't making more of it. I love land and would look for some other excuse to buy it even if there were no deer on it. Long term, I don't think you can go wrong with land. The simple economics of supply and demand will see to that.

[@djkilpatrick5256]

That’s what I believe. Hunting will Be a rich man’s sport next 10 or 20 years or so. And that’s depressing. I can’t afford a hundred acre lot, or even 50 acres. Public land is my only option. I’m afraid one day it’ll start being sold

[@OntheRangeLadies]

Can I honestly ask what your long term plan on hunting is? I mean there is a finite amount of wildlife and I have neighbors sneaking on me, gun shots within feet of my house wake me up half the year, had a horse shot, fences cut, livestock tanks shot, cattle in 8 directions over it. It is exhausting and terrifying, it is out of control, even as a kid I was not allowed to play outside because of people sneaking on us. Do you sell the land once you have decimated the wildlife? I do not understand this style of thinking, as a 3rd generation on this property I was taught it is my job to take care of the business and the wildlife. Do you really feel entitled to finish killing what is wild about this country? It's so monkey see monkey do that some are trapping deer and trucking them across state lines to have someone pay to shoot them, this is going to spread wasting disease and hasten ecological collapses. Stop and really look around sometime and ask if this is good stewardship or if you are living out some Buffalo Bill fantasy.

[@curte7739]

They already have in most of the country I sold real estate years ago in Georgia and Tennessee bought a farm in Kentucky recently and since I bought it price per acre is almost doubled. When I started selling real estate in Middle Georgia back in the '90s you could still find pretty decent land for around 500 acre and then seemingly overnight everything jumped to about 1500 an acre now you'll be lucky if you can find anything but an extremely large track for less than 5,000 an acre.

[@cannontaylor97]

So crazy. Right bow in Utah it's about 100k a acre. I don't know how people do it.

[@tealpaddles8664]

In the mid to late 70's they said " they are not making land anymore"

[@MrAhoelzel]

Being it actual value, or the devaluation of our $, the price will rise a great deal over time.

[@MidwestWoodsandWater]

It’s hard to believe what land is selling for around my neck of the woods. Idk how any average person can attain any meaningful size of recreational land in the current market. It’s unfortunate.

[@timothyscott6365]

Just a thought of mine is the baby boomers are the largest landowners age group and they are all headed for retirement and eventually they are not going to be here i just wonder if there's is much as a interest of owning your own land like the older generations because there's a lot of people wanting to live in apartments or mini homes less maintenance lifestyles it will be interesting to see what happens in the next 20 30years

[@jerryfischer3988]

Always enjoy listening to your VLOG. Very well thought out. Until we can make more money on savings than 5 to 7 % land makes sense. Income generation, hedge on inflation and enjoyment 😉

[@scottwebber652]

Jus for s n g’s when I bought mine some 20+ years ago the locals chuckled. Now it’s 5x more n by renting it out made the original $ back. And I n a few chosen have harvested a hundred nice bucks. How’s dat for taking the plunge ??

[@alexpinnow6509]

Did land sales companies contribute to this "gold rush" and will this gold rush come to an end as more companies to try get in and make their money, leading to lower quality land pieces with unrealistic prices?

[@halledwardb]

Yes I believe so. 30 percent of the market was made by investors, and others that believed they could live hours and hours from work with some moving to totally different states thinking they could work from home forever. We will see how the work from home battle goes as its starting to play out right now before our eyes, and right before the layoffs happen. Positive factors are Democrats turning blue cities into the movie "Purge".

[@franksfamily]

Nothing is going back to long term historic trends. Don't plan on that. I don't know what its gonna do but I do know its not going back

[@timwozniak7574]

Land prices have absolutely gotten out of touch with reality..so sad

[@winkdinkerson7190]

My comments and observations Center on farm land. I have yet to have a farmer, farm prospector, or third-party non-farming entity explain to me the rationale for spending $1.0M bucks on quarter section of land, when the buy’s rate of return ROI is somewhere between 20-40 years, based on the assumption of numerous years of bumper crops and highest commodity pricing on record. Here’s some startling stats: more and more land is being farmed by fewer and fewer generational farmers. The succession of kids raised on the farm, but leaving for urbanite career opportunities has skyrocketed in the past forty plus years. What is the opportunity cost of farming? In other words if you had a $1.0M buckets in hand (your own money), what alternate investments could you look at with greater rates or return, and substantially lower risk profile? Farming is the highest risk business venture, as born out by significant suicide rates. If a farmer buys 2,4,6,8 or 10 additional quarters with dept financing, what crops would they propose to grow that would produce sufficient returns to service the dept, and produce positive cash flow? With the increase in farmland, comes a corresponding increase in input costs. These are all variables that in my way of thinking make million dollar quarter sections out of reach, unprofitable, and unattainable for others - when real market value based on comparables to other investment types loudly proclaim its way over priced.

[@boarhollow7214]

Stop asking good questions, we are trying to PUMP land prices ok.

[@johnzeit919]

As a thirty some year old farmer I'm able to add tillable acres by using cash flow from acres I purchased over the last 10 years I'm currently at @ 700 acres with the last purchase being over a million dollars for 100 acres. Also have a side job and raise hogs that we get significant amount of our input covered.

[@winkdinkerson7190]

@@johnzeit919 hey John. Two queries. How much do you have tied up in land purchases (total investment)? And have you determined an opportunity cost - that is better ROI via different investment types? I’m curious… thanks much Wink.

[@johnzeit919]

@@winkdinkerson7190 The best way to describe this is ,ROI on investment you know little about is usually less than desirable. Farmland real estate has a very good track record of decent capital gain in example +6% on the last 20 years. Stick with your game in whatever works for you.

[@winkdinkerson7190]

@@johnzeit919 a polite question receives a pith response. I work in the corporate world where ROI is measured by the quarter. A stark contrast to I spent $1.0M on a quarter, can’t growth anything consistently as a farmer that will service the total dept, and generate any positive rate of return in your entire life, and you want lecture on finance. Do you have any idea on what opportunity cost really means - likely not. Stay in your lane, continue to throw good money, at over priced investments, work multiple off site jobs so you can continue to farm, and plough what ever marginal proceeds you make - back into the ground.

[@zebwalton979]

Realtors and brokers drive the high land prices. The new adage ‘their not making anymore land’ is an attempt at a coy excuse for raising prices. The value of land is established by the buyer... period. When you have people dumb enough to pay 30% over the price, that leads others, who aren’t keen on land values, to believe that’s the price and if they want the land - that’s the price they have to pay. Remember: YOU, the buyer, establish the price.

[@halledwardb]

And I'm seeing less and less closings, higher and higher market time on market, and more and more sellers taking an IMMEDIATE 30-40% off the list price on the offers we place weekly. We place 10-20 low offers a week in TX, OK, TN. Sellers are countering when before most would just not respond. We feel these counter offers are mostly still too high with the economy turning down. Talking with the sellers and the agents, most are still smoking hopium. Remember there are a ton of good agents that have quit, and a ton of new agents that have been 2 years to 3 years and think covid stimulus was normal. We feel this is starting to change, but what do I know, I worked at trading firms and look at data not feelings.

[@showmetheheartland]

No, that's not correct at all. Buyers do not set the price. Buyers agree to the price that's set by the seller. However, in this market, if a buyer hesitates or fails to act, more often than not they'll lose the opportunity.

[@thinkfirst6431]

Part of the land price is the locals complaining about the high prices yet they are the ones who are selling the land for the high price.

[@jimreed3904]

Being a real estate appraiser for 32 years... here is my 2 cents.. Supply is fixed or decreasing. So concentrate on demand variables. Assuming Pandemic variable settle down, look more at population trends on a micro and macro basis. If you are a buyer there is room for slight optimism of broad price small reductions in rec land given the population trends are reducing - simply put..the days of big families are over. Furthermore, the youth of our nation are not exactly embracing the outdoor related recreation activities with everything inside at their fingertips...So my take, hang in there as demand (in general) will start to wain over the next 5-10 years. However, a double edged sword occurs with the current policy driven inflation issues with the all out attack on fossil fuels so quickly will continue to erode discretionary income for most americans...so affordability (regardless of declining population trends) will possibly continue to favor the few in the upper middle class to upper class more as a diverse portfolio move who in turn will lease the land to recreational users (who are predominantly middle to lower class that simply can not afford the acquisition of most tracts of land - big or small). We lease or beer, vehicles, and a good bit of our housing so leasing is still the most feasible way of having any say on a recreational tract of land... unfortunately but true...

[@buckydoedowner9040]

Ive never seen land prices decline, in my lifetime ive seen it go from 900,1500,2500 and all the way to 14k+ an acre now. I really dont know how anyone can afford it anymore. Hard to compete with the farmers interest rates.

[@joshsinglefooter]

It will one day. Everything goes in cycles.

[@buckydoedowner9040]

@@joshsinglefooter lol, ya sure

[@joshsinglefooter]

@@buckydoedowner9040 this time culture will be at play. They said housing prices would never go down. Go close to any city area where housing prices have plummeted. You can get an contract to tear down the houses and the woods around it will be super cheap. Great deer are close to the city i promise. The property im speaking of is super cheap right now. Then add gentrification in to the mix for the same area that land will be back sky high in 10 years thus rural land prices will fall. Its happening everywhere.

[@buckydoedowner9040]

@@joshsinglefooter Your obviously not from Ohio or Farm country. Like ive said. Ive never seen land prices fall in my lifetime. Ofcourse someone can buy a pos house on a lot that needs tore down cheap. But here in Ohio farmers buy anything and everything that can be planted or clear cut to plant. they compete with eachother with their 1% interest loans witch leaves any normal person like me without govt handouts a slim slim chance at being able to afford land. Like i said its went all the way from 800-900$ an acre to 14k-16k an acre and acre and it will never do anything but raise as long as there is a need for corn or soybeans. Hell ive never seen the price of anything decline in my lifetime.. hell a 50lb bag of corn is going for $14.. you think that makes land cheaper? hell no.. not in farm country.

[@joshsinglefooter]

@@buckydoedowner9040 Just keep living sir.

[@JustDItY]

Purple / pink Edward chart hands?

[@rugerdogg5316]

Why do farmers clear more farmland when the government is paying some farmers not to farm

[@Texas1987]

Because they don't want to eat bugs like they want us to

[@boohanlon3305]

Its clever marketing and an excellent sector for profit.. but these "recreational" real estate companies have destroyed the family farm by marketing our lands to yuppies from the cities and madison or chicago. Theyve created a niche industry that priced farmers out of their land and all but eliminated knocking on a door and gaining hunting access with out rediculious leasing fees. Im glad you guys and wiese and the other real estate companies made your money though. At the expense of locals and their farms and hunting opportunity though. 🤷‍♂️

[@brianmuse7215]

The one thing they failed to talk about is investor groups driving the price up also.

[@Big-G-man85]

Why would the government pay farmers to not farm?Ask yourselves that.

[@mattkrapfl6349]

Is it to drive up commodity prices so land prices follow and then taxes go up on the over-valued land. Grandpa says it's a way to tax people right off there own land. What do you think?

[@Texas1987]

@@mattkrapfl6349 is not about that anymore they are pushing synthetic meats and want us to eat bugs instead do some research on it you'll see

[@showmetheheartland]

Because some land is not good for farming.

[@agwhoneedsaphd2643]

LoL interest rates jumping land will drop like a rock

[@MountainRancher]

Na, there’s tons of cash buyers

[@robertcalamusso4218]

Looking for a wind fall.

[@gentrydebbie1040]

It has been soaring all year you must be Blind ? Or not tried to Buy some .

[@247Homesllc]

Lol this is funny. I have to laugh. If it’s only opinions why waste your breath lmao

[@bstraub9452]

One thing I have noticed is a lot farmers are baby boomers and are getting to that age. I don't see the younger generation talking over these farms. They are going to get sold and with supply and demand the price will come down.

[@AJ-ox8xy]

Ya many of those people of they don't sell now will eventually be selling for substantially less in the future. Unless they end up giving it to their kids who continue the farm. I'm try to start my own farm. But it's nearly impossible at today's prices. Looking forward to a time when it's possible again hopefully within the next 5 years.

[@MidwestWoodsandWater]

Those small farms get bought up by large corporate farms though. At least in my area that’s what happens.

[@JustDItY]

KZbin and their woke ass ads SUCK!!!

[@scottschaeffer8920]

Define recreational land? What is it? Land that’s less productive? Pressures on land from an ever expanding human population will motivate investors to buy your precious deer habitat, and technology will figure-out how to turn it into something that pays. I don’t like that either. Believe it or not; perhaps, the Climate saving effort may offer some hope?

[@robertcalamusso4218]

There gonna buy yiur 100 ac of deer ground. For millions !!!

[@repurposedart9897]

Need to only pay 1% to these realtor agents. 3% on both ends is to much with higher prices of property. Interest rates are going up, limiting the amount people can afford for properties. Time to buy when people start defaulting on their loans and the banks auction off their assets in a few years from the upcoming recession.