What Putin's soldiers think of the war

[@VladVexler]

WATCH NEXT: Why the West Isn't Committed to a full Ukrainian Victory (& Why It Should be) kzbin.info/www/bejne/gIGUc6eloNKqqZI Why Losing Crimea May Destroy Putin kzbin.info/www/bejne/hGemeJWPhq6JgNU The Riddle of Why Russians Don't Protest kzbin.info/www/bejne/gWWyZHdteMuHnqM Why Russians Struggle To Transcend Imperialism kzbin.info/www/bejne/Z2OzdGl3n6mepNU --- You can support Vlad's work on Patreon! www.patreon.com/vladvexler Support Vlad via PayPal www.paypal.com/paypalme/vladvexler?country.x=GB&locale.x=en_GB Vlad Vexler Chat, my second channel for in depth conversation www.youtube.com/@VladVexlerChat/videos --- WATCH MORE: Putin: The Problem of Evil in Politics (appropriate to watch in light of Kokhovka) kzbin.info/www/bejne/mpq9gnaPaa6lmpI Why All Russians Are Responsible for Putin's War kzbin.info/www/bejne/mmLTgJSeppmHec0 Why Putin Miscalculated So Badly In Ukraine kzbin.info/www/bejne/jHO0iKmQqaiBftk Why Russians Rejected Freedom (Gorbachev) kzbin.info/www/bejne/jHbdZompi7GjatU

[@AdlerMow]

Western covardice may lead China to invade Taiwan. Drip feeding weapons and fearing escalation... Russia and China got nukes, so what? Should we give in to every dictators' whims? If anything nukes are useless for defense, and this war will destroys this myth. Lets hope its gone before its too late!

[@Odirile.molaolwa]

The West is caught between love and desire. They don't want Ukraine to win, and they don't want Russia to lose. Actually, a weak Russia may prove problematic to the West like Afghanistan

[@ChrisEkstedt]

TY, Rewatched it and it bears repeating and sharing!

[@spendor9377]

Great analysis as always👍💯

[@eduardhagiu9836]

Do you live in Russia? I dont think so. Your just a western propaganda.... nothing new....

[@sabinehahn9774]

"Weiss der Führer das?" ("Does the Leader know about this?") was often the bud of the joke in Nazi Germany, the question those people asked, that didn't have a grip on reality even when the signs of a total demise became very obvious.

[@philosophyofiron9686]

I almost get the sense that the soldiers' resilience against a collapse of morale so far is actually a result of their initial state of depoliticization. Like a sort of "there isn't far to fall" situation. If you already have a bleak and cynical outlook, resigned to a sense of ineffectuality, permeated by fatalism, with a pattern of acting on non-rational impulses of aimless desperation, then how vulnerable are you to having a maelstrom of senseless and violent mayhem break you? This initial, hopeless and depoliticized state would seem to significantly blunt the shock, and allow you to numbly press on with your arbitrary role in an inscrutable catastrophe.

[@Bob-nd2mr]

SEE: Learned Helplessness

[@tlk889]

I think that's why fascising the Russian population right now would break Putin's regime. If people would begin to see a goal at the end of the war, they would feel the failures much more deeply, and look for ways to improve their odds of achieving that goal.

[@Bedrock1966]

We've seen enough take their own lives instead of surrender which is somewhat bizarre and worrying.

[@perihelion7798]

Yes - this is the essence of Russian historical philosophy. "Things are terrible, but just roll with it."

[@ashcarrier6606]

You sound like Dostoevsky.

[@mikefixac]

Interesting to get into the mind of the average Russian field soldier. "Inferred justification" makes all sense realizing that the soldiers are #1, apolitical #2 propagandized, and #3 desperate. Who has more time on its side, Russia or Ukraine? If Ukraine can hold out, Russia will bleed out from a piss-poor economy. Vlad, thanks for the video, that's some deep thinking and you're spot on.

[@zebrajenks]

russias economy is better now than before the war, just look at the ruble and russia selling oil to china and india and india is selling the russian oil back to europe. this is all bullshit propaganda

[@anaturn12]

I really think ukranians are simply refusing to let russians win they will outlast them

[@larp1075]

there's only money on their minds, nothing else.

[@VladVexler]

Thank you so much!

[@negy2570]

I really Hope that Ukraine has more time and resources on it's side but I'm not sure. Russian soldiers May be Lost in their motivation and desperate but they're still going there and doing awful things no matter what. That's all for Putin. He doesn't Need motivated soldiers. The less morally noble they are the Better they can be used.

[@paulblack8887]

"Men have worshipped the sun: the Russians worship an eclipse. How can we expect their eyes to be unsealed?" "In Russia the government's power is absolute, but at the same time is extremely fearful of criticism, even of frank utterances. All men born in Russia... conspire tacitly to observe unanimous silence concerning what goes on. Nothing is ever said, yet everything is known... In Russia, to converse is to conspire, to think is to revolt. Thought is not merely a crime, it is a misfortune." Custine (1830s)

[@Bfdidc]

Yikes.

[@fowreeeeeeeel]

1984

[@s.b.6010]

That country’s citizens have been brainwashed for so long. A little revolt would do them some good. They had a revolution about 100 years ago but they choose poorly on who to lead them. The Bolshevik Party and Stalin was not a step in the right direction. They need a more Democratic government if they want to be considered Europeans.

[@sigmaoctantis1892]

Then it got worse.

[@sandrothenecromancer6810]

Russian spirit they lie just to not start speaking the Truth. Also it is ironic that the russian soldier does not care about a war as long as they are treated well, doesn`t matter if the war is just or unjust, they only worship violence.

[@jarretlevine]

Fabulous video! I think the real problem here is a military has been co-opted by a group of gangsters squabbling over cash, land and assets and the army is looking around wondering what is going on and then all the ancillary questions come up for the individual soldiers.

[@issigonis975]

It has always been about cash. Ask a cynical Russian and they even think Putin, Ukraine and the West are doing some kind of deal. They know it is only money but struggle to see it is only Russian gangsters fighting each other at the pig trough.

[@the_mad_fool]

This implies the Russian military has ever *not* been a group of gangsters squabbling over cash, land, and assets.

[@staceycolangelo8940]

Fabulous video! Vlad has been wrong on almost all of his predictions, but I’m going to keep buying into his propaganda, because it reinforces my beliefs! Never mind the videos on telegram/TikTok showing Russian soldiers singing, playing guitar, laughing, women bringing them clothing and food, dancing around shooting drones down, and just having a good time thwarting Zelenskyy’s weak counteroffensive…. Never mind that, I’m going to listen to this meth head because he saying all the things I want to hear! No, Russians aren’t motivated or anything. Ukraine only bombed the Kerch bridge twice, assassinated Daria Dugina, blew up a café in Saint Petersburg… what can I say? It looks like Russia’s army is about to collapse 😂

[@doubleplusgoodthinker9434]

It was often said that Hitler could not have done what he did, without the support of his people. The same goes for Putins Russia. People cannot hide behind "I was only carrying out my orders" or "I am not political". They are responsible, some more than others.

[@begr_wiedererkennungswert]

It's enough to have 1 out of 10 support it and give them the power to punish or kill the other 9. Doesn't change responsibility though.

[@EnglishAbundance]

Rubbish. Dangerous rubbish. Dangerous and immoral rubbish. Are you responsible for homelessness... poverty... global warming? Why not? Why are others responsible for something that they don't do but you aren't? Or, like Putin, do you like feeling superior to others? You think you're better than others, yes? OK.

[@gytosas]

@@begr_wiedererkennungswert that is not true with current situation in RF. People support war 50%+. They are either stupid, brainwashed or borderline sociopaths but that is what we have. Reluctantly I am loosing simpathy for them..

[@MusicByJC]

The same goes with Trump. Trump is a weak beta, but he has control over the spineless Republican party because 30% of the party are a violent cult and another 30% are passive cult members, that believe and support anything Trump does.

[@doubleplusgoodthinker9434]

@@gergosoos2870 That is interesting. I believe they tried to invoke the "I was only carrying out my orders" defence at the Nuremburg trials and it did not wash then and it will not wash now.

[@Marshal_Dunnik]

"In war, the moral is to the physical as three is to one." - Napoleon

[@NoBSMusicReviews]

Don’t forget, 700,000 children have been taken from Ukraine to Russia. Almost 3/4 of a million children kidnapped! That has to be an incredible motivation for the Ukrainian people to fight to their last breath. In fact, I can think of no higher motivation.

[@noname-fh7ym]

@@untje Not "voluntarily" you can't go to any other country from the occupied territories

[@jsaintr.i.r4018]

❤

[@henriikkak2091]

That's genocide. Hence, the ICC arrest warrant.

[@zetristan4525]

I've been following this, and where do I find the evidence? Are they orphans? I've seen some Ukrainian mothers going to get their children back from "holiday camps" and also a few whose children have not been found. Can you direct me to (most of) the 700 000 though: evidence of the route they were taken along?

[@Павел-ю7м9ф]

Ты это сам видел?

[@jabberwockytdi8901]

As the Russian MoD is systematicaly not paying or underpaying their army, and assuming the only reason for that is not just Shoigu and co. lining their pockets but shortage of money ( which ceasing to pay Wagner would alos indicate) then there is no chance to improve morale. That would take actual regular payment of the full wages promised including combat bonuses etc. proper supply of food equipement ammo etc. a chance for rotation , not just stay on the lines till you're dead. The money and will to organise the Russian military properly is clearly just not there.

[@ostwelt]

This is a very perceptive comment. Would add if one is fatalistic expecting to die in a trench then one does want the certainty that loved ones left behind are going to be properly looked after. Including all these bonus/pension payments promised. If the state starts welching on these promised payments the bargain to die, which always looks one-sided (indeed!), will appear completely off balance.

[@piccalillipit9211]

*I WAS JUST* telling my sister about you when this video dropped - how you have revolutionized my very way of thinking... Since getting Long Covid my thinking had been quite childlike, which was good in some ways, but I struggled to separate what people meant from the things they said. You have helped me a lot. EDIT - THANK YOU

[@GnosticAtheist]

Does long covid retard (as in the actual meaning of the word, not the insult) thinking? I should probably look into it, I just thought it was a longer, less severe form of covid...

[@veteran_dino]

@@GnosticAtheist it has some effect on the brain yes, most often memory but I wouldnt rule out other stuff

[@nearing_the_end]

​@@GnosticAtheisthe caught a form of retardation from COVID wow never heard of such a thing poor man hope he gets his functions back at some point.

[@piccalillipit9211]

@@GnosticAtheist YES very severely at some point. some days I have no thoughts or opinions - which to be honest can be quite nice in 2023 LOL Some days I have an incredible clarity of thought because my "present" mind, the bit that deals with the here and now, just goes and I can see the big big picture. I can no longer do even basic maths in my head, I need a calculator. As I say in the OP, I have more of a child like way of looking at the world which is not 100% bad I dont have the automatic assumptions I used to. BUT the most anoing thing is only being able to focus on the idiotic arguments people make, to the point I get genuinely angry at stupid statements and lose all objectivity and fixate on the idiotic thing, this is what Vlad has helped me greatly with. In summary YES my IQ has dropped, it varies from day to day, and its not all bad if yo do the things you can do on the days you can do them - but that would be impossible to fit into a work schedule so a lot of people will be suffering...

[@piccalillipit9211]

@@nearing_the_end You might find my comment to @GnosticAtheist above interesting - I describe my symptoms.

[@BeyondHomeCooking]

Hey Vlad, looks like you are feeling a little better, that's nice to see. Thanks for the insightful update on the status of russian thought vis-a-vis the ukraine conflict and their morale.

[@2Oldcoots]

Thank You Vlad for such interesting reflections, which enrich all of us.

[@andreidmny]

Your production quality has been increasing exponentially, Vlad! Solid and well packaged information as usual.

[@VladVexler]

Thank you!

[@ivangohome]

The value of life in Russia was never high. Me mum n dad saved me from the Chechnya war.

[@RuiLuz]

When you shoot your own soldiers with machine guns so they can't retreat, it says it all...

[@QuixEnd]

*"There must be a good reason for it"* gosh that's gonna be rough. I can totally relate to that thinking and the scary part is when it all collapses. That process of realizing it was all for nothing. These young men will either maintain a death grip on their beliefs, or be mentally shattered into pure nihilism. Very few take the third option.

[@ostwelt]

Exactly. Exactly. This is how I rationalised Gulf War II. Governments say there are WMD. So there must be. Because they wouldn't go to war without this good reason... The rest is a very tragic history for the ME and West.

[@henriikkak2091]

It sure is taking a long time -- The penny to drop.

[@QuixEnd]

@@ostwelt yeah I always have to remind myself of that when speaking to people who adimentaly believe their absurd conspiracies yet disregard every institution. They may lack critical thinking, but ontologically there's a legitimate reason so many people distrust the government. Didn't come from nowhere

[@daveduvergier3412]

"They're not the most proactive folks in town" : this beautiful bit of understatement made me laugh out loud.

[@arthurdowney2846]

Great work with the pacing and editing on this one. It feels like a special report that a news channel might air.

[@sarahrosen4985]

Except, unlike mainstream media, it is intelligent and insightful and not brought to you by Blackrock or Proctor &Gamble.

[@ostwelt]

​@@sarahrosen4985Too funny 😂

[@deathbystats]

The simple fact that you play Red Alert's Soviet March so often when talking about the Russian military....... We love you, Vlad. :D

[@sangmoon2464]

I remember one Russian soldier being interviewed who said he joined to fight in Ukraine for Russia because he was in a bad place in life and thought joining the war would be a life changing experience.

[@markofsaltburn]

Well he wasn’t wrong, but he probably wasn’t right in the way he expected.

[@bluemarlin8138]

Ending, not changing.

[@lundsweden]

From bad to worse. Probably not the brightest guy

[@KonataCookieMonster]

they will say anything because they are in denial of the real reason ALL of them are going to kill Ukrainians - money!

[@Mr.Canuck]

I wonder if this was the same guy who didnt know how to tie his boot laces. The velcro shoe market in russia must be a goldmine.

[@robertbrennan2268]

Brilliantly insightful, even revelatory oration! Great thanks Vlad!

[@omrigivon3725]

Thank you Vlad 🙏🙏

[@ChrisEkstedt]

Thank you for another clearly articulated and very digestible view of the current psychology of the Russian soldier and it's impacts on the war. Very nicely produced too! ❤🌻

[@Newburyk]

Beautiful work as usual Vlad, thank you

[@MorrisDugan]

I especially loved this phrase: "...the age-old Soviet practice of hiding from the state."

[@smallakam7310]

Concise, informative, logical. Thank You

[@garyfogel9530]

The way in which you summarise these issues is unparalleled on KZbin.

[@sherrillwhately7586]

Really appreciate your produced video style. Thanks!

[@richardoldfield6714]

It's interesting to note that, according to British intelligence, Russia has been forced to throw into battle forces that are normally based in the Caucasus and used to maintain order in that volatile region, plus forces that are normally based 7,000 km away as a balance to Chinese power, plus forces that are normally based in Western Russia as an elite rapid reaction force in case of tensions with NATO. No wonder the Wagner group saw that available Russian forces to defend major Russian cities, including Moscow, are thin on the ground. The Russian military is now massively over-stretched. It might only take some unexpected event - rebellion in the Caucasus, Wagner having another go at revolution, or China deciding that Putin is a lost cause and so deciding to get tough over disputed areas in the east - for this stretched line to snap completely.

[@polarvortex3294]

Ironically, the Russian manpower shortage that's hampering the war effort and creating the vulnerabilities you've described is part of the reason Putin ordered the war in the first place. More valuable than a land-bridge to Crimea or the resources of the Donbas are the people he hoped to add to Russia's population. But I guess it's a bit like the old joke -- The only people who qualify for a loan are those who don't really need it. Or like the quandary of a man who needs experience to get a job & a job to get experience. Seems like Russia is S.O.L. barring some miracle.

[@nihluxler1890]

Kinda like when british « intelligence » stated that the Russians would fully run out of missiles in march of last year. Or that their units were forced to storm trenches with shovels…. Like, Jesus christ. The Russians aren’t aren’t the ones getting propagandized the hardest in this war…

[@AlexA-eg7gz]

This video is so dynamic and laconic! One of the best you've made so far. I Imagine how much effort it takes from a person with health issues. I hope you'll get well soon, Vlad.

[@97SEMTEX]

This was a good video, fast, punchy, but jammed with good and impactful rhetoric that gets the message across.

[@mrnelsonius5631]

Even from my removed western perspective, I found myself rooting for Prigozhin’s mutiny. I understand fully that he is a lying, corrupt, murderous sociopath but his theater was convincing. It was perfectly relatable on a human level. It shows another Putin weakness: that his reasons for this war simply aren’t relatable. As you’ve stated I don’t believe they are to the Russian people either. Inferred justification is enough when the war is far away, like Iraq was to many Americans. As soon as it starts to threaten security in your own backyard? It suddenly becomes less so.

[@bluemarlin8138]

It also seemed as though Prigozhin painted himself in a corner regarding the war in Ukraine. He admitted that it was just a grab for land and money, and that Putin’s accusations against Ukraine and NATO were lies. If by some chance he were able to take control, he would have a hard time continuing the war after saying that. By blaming it all on Shoigu/Gerasimov and the oligarchs, he could have given himself a way to extract Russia from the war without admitting defeat or making himself look weak. (This could even apply to Putin, but would require a lot more mental gymnastics and would only work on the Russian population). Of course, the real reason Prigozhin would have taken this course is to increase his own power and influence by taking over for these officials and oligarchs, and perhaps even Putin himself, depending on how things played out. And that’s the thing with all of these Ruzzian leaders. This war, and Ruzzian foreign policy in general, is about keeping themselves in power and super-rich. While they may actually believe in this “Russian World” pan-Eurasian hypernationalist BS they spew in the media, the fact is that it’s all very much in the service of maintaining their personal power and wealth. The propaganda is what they feed to the Russian people. It makes the Russian people feel a little better about their terrible lives and ignore the massive theft of their nation’s wealth by the ruling class if they get to feel like they’re a part of a big, strong country that “stands up to the West,” so that’s what the ruling class lets them think. Would the Ruzzian ruling class like to restore the USSR’s borders? Sure. But are they going to do it at the cost of a nuclear war that would kill them and destroy their empire, or even a conventional war with NATO that would see them demolished and destroy the illusion that keeps them in power? Hell no. That’s why they try to poke and prod at NATO just enough to give the people at home some red meat, but not enough to elicit a military response. A war with NATO is actually what terrifies them more than anything, except perhaps a revolution.

[@garyfryer5334]

What Mutiny was that then? Western propoganderists are so funny!🤣🤣

[@marsdriver2501]

@@bluemarlin8138 Prigozhyn is not the guy you should root for. If he did manage to get the power, he would have militarized russia even more, Wagner has been fighting in this war better than russian regular army, so we would get nothing good out of him getting the power. As an Ukrainian I was rooting for long and bloody civilian war that would have helped on the battlefield back in Ukraine

[@jeffreyhanc1711]

I remember watching the “coup” with amusement and excitement. My wife asked what’s going on and I explained the situation, giggling at the sorry state of Russian affairs, cheering for the Putin demise. She thought for s moment, then asked: so we’re rooting for the guy leading a group of violent inmates behind multiple global war crimes to take over the government with the largest amount of nuclear warheads? Ok… I promptly stopped cheering.

[@peterbutz642]

Not much different than Putin how many people has that evil fk killed

[@phildendron4702]

omg… you go deep…expose the reasons of this war happening. thanks so much.

[@truthwizard]

Throwing pearls like stones here... Precious information, Vlad! Thank you!

[@ruaridhmacdonald3543]

Great one Vlad- brilliant summary

[@JRBendixen]

Very very good video. Short and with excellent editing.

[@nelsonsilva9966]

A treasure trove of content. Thank you Vlad.

[@JosephHoggang-bk4bk]

Sensible analysis👍

[@soccom8341576]

The solution is ganging up and fragging their officers. Let's see if they do.

[@ralphdavis9670]

It helped end the Viet Nam war.

[@theguybehindyou4762]

Only after they’re able to process what is even happening. Most of them have no clue.

[@Witnessmoo]

I’ve seen videos of Russian soldiers wounded when Ukrainians storm their trenches just dragging themselves in a dumb attempt to kill the Ukrainians. They are a credit to their ancestors…

[@bluemarlin8138]

@@WitnessmooThe Ruzzian command is probably telling them that they’ll be tortured if they surrender, and shot if they retreat. Japan told its soldiers this this in WWII (oh, the irony), which is partially why not many Japanese soldiers surrendered. Civilians on Okinawa were jumping off cliffs because they had been falsely told that they would be killed or enslaved. It’s not hard to imagine Ruzzia telling people the same sort of lies.

[@bobfry5267]

They don't get to see their officers. Russia currently has a famine of junior officers, they are about to commission Cadets before their year end. Senior officers don't show near the front because the Ukrainians have a habit of killing them with HIMARS. Usually en masse. They also get mobbed, there are videos.

[@ostwelt]

Excellent. Punchy and direct with a clear line of very logical reasoning. Is this modern philosophy?!? Also, a new editor???

[@Grant_S_M]

How you lead to the previous video and next previous and so on is very good. It's a rabbit hole of actual truth. Slava Ukraini!

[@Ewert99]

One of the best videos.

[@russellhammond4373]

Thanks for the summary of current issues. Love the way you think.

[@thezieg]

Good rundown. Thanks again!!

[@Coriolanable]

Thanks, Vlad, Well explained. I’ll have to listen to it a couple of more times. Complicated!

[@gnarfgnarf4004]

Insightful. Informative. Original.

[@chrisrose2898]

Wonderful video, thank you!❤️☮️🙏🏻

[@hififlipper]

"It sounds like a business dispute handled by military means." This is pretty well said.

[@live_free_or_perish]

Excellent, just Excellent! 💯

[@MrSunturion]

Loved this Video, nice Caspian Report music.

[@Miata822]

Good video for the general audience. Short, punchy.

[@reggienoble3195]

Great job Vlad! Short yet powerful and to the point!

[@christophercousins184]

Fascinating and thought provoking, as always.

[@JCdental]

Low morale does not mean low compliance, sadly

[@meister-t]

1:05 if you count them, there are 18, not 40, out of 150 that were left, because they said in the video they were all there. (maybe 19 if I missed one, but certainly not 40). the point is, that this is quite representative of their losses. it's a big difference between 2/3 and almost 90% losses.

[@karinfend2980]

One of my favourite of your videos 👏👍

[@ronoveson2798]

Outstanding video, Vlad. Great energy and thoughtful content made even better by a few “video bells & whistles”. Like you, I deal with the ups and downs of a chronic neurological disease, in my case neurosarcoidosis. Primary disorders affecting the autonomic and sympathetic/parasympathetic nervous system are rare and not well understood. It’s a crap-shoot every day as to what in my body is going to work today and what isn’t. I never commit to anything because I can’t count on my body. I look at photos of Putin and Kadyrov and recognize the “moon face” of chronic use of corticosteroids. What they don’t realize is that these drugs are sometimes necessary but extremely dangerous. It will be their kryptonite, Vlad. I am now dealing with the consequences of using them 25 years ago; specifically now - avascular necrosis. Had my L shoulder replaced with titanium in a surgery called “Reverse Total Shoulder Replacement”. It should be called torture instead of surgery. Other things they’re going to find out in time are: cataracts, osteoporosis, thought and mood disorders, adrenal insufficiency, hypercalcemia resulting in chronic kidney stones, weak tooth enamel, and (the only one I haven’t had) diabetes. The cruel thing is that Prednisone always made me feel like a million bucks! I would scheme with doctors in order to keep taking it because it always made me feel better, while it was killing me. There’s even a Walter Matthau, Barbara Rush, and James Mason 1956 movie about cortisone addiction called “Bigger Than Life”. Not a masterpiece but worth a viewing. This got too long but the moral of the story is: study every drug you put in your body until you understand it thoroughly.

[@ostwelt]

That all sounds tough. Hang in there though :) Thank you for the film reference. Love a film that means something deeper for the audience than just as a plot device.

[@ronoveson2798]

@@ostwelt Thank you. The one thing I never let slip is my attitude, which remains positive regardless. It’s the key.

[@rubysilver3299]

It’s interesting that you’d mention prednisone, because I’ve been thinking that Putin’s current appearance reminds me strongly of my former father-in-law, who took prednisone for 25 years. He wound up having most of the side-effects you mentioned, including diabetes, which was ultimately fatal. He was an obnoxious bully who was constantly berating and manipulating his family, and I heartily disliked him, but it was terrible to see him suffer. I cannot imagine having any sympathy for a similarly suffering Putin.

[@ronoveson2798]

@@rubysilver3299 Thank you for the very kind words. I couldn’t imagine how much more complicated the loss of your dad was because of that dichotomy between loving him as your dad and sort of hating him at the same time. Truth is, my dad was an alcoholic but we reconciled before his death. I still have memories of him breaking through doors to get to me, yet he taught me how to be an engineer. Wtf are we supposed to do with that? Glory to the Ukrainian Heroes!

[@rubysilver3299]

@@ronoveson2798 he fortunately wasn’t my dad. He was my now ex-husband’s father, and his personality problems may have been aggravated by prednisone, but they were mostly his own, because he passed them on to his son which is why he is now my ex. I sincerely hope that you can find some treatment that will improve your health outlook.

[@stevens533]

Thanks!

[@markgriffiths6797]

Excellent stream as always Vlad !

[@pierre-charlesleonhart8357]

Polished Vlad vid! Automatically a great day

[@johntait491]

An interesting and insightful video Vlad. Thank you. 👍

[@JS-yq4ff]

Thanks. I brought up inferred justification as motivation a while ago. Glad your recognize it as a factor.

[@kindnuguz]

Beautiful Vlad ❤

[@louisquatorze9280]

Prig is apparently in St Pete's not Belarus.

[@cassidymcgurk]

hes safe there, hes the mafia don of st petersburg

[@eddiegoodman9267]

Great update. Glory to Ukraine.

[@B_r_u_c_e]

Vlad, you say the sweetest things.

[@normanboyes4983]

Thank you Vlad - excellent video.😀👍

[@joaomarreiros4906]

Excellent analysis.

[@tangledtails]

Thanks for this.

[@sharonsmiler4938]

Thank you ❤

[@klausgartenstiel4586]

and yet, they keep fighting. which is, i believe, a very important lesson in the human capacity for apathy.

[@juju8119]

Very enjoyable Vlad, thanks x

[@luszczi]

I will never get used to "Mr. Putin".

[@dpc1328]

Great video!

[@GlobalDrifter1000]

Vlad, how do you know this. Moral.

[@AbdulHannanAbdulMatheen]

👏🙂 Very interesting and informative. Great video.

[@vanessak.sanders1292]

Absolutely brilliant. Succinct and on the $. ❤

[@sandrakelly6839]

I find your clip volume very low. Hard to strain to here. Your clip are great. Could you increase the volume.

[@bobbill4541]

Always great videos from Vlad

[@Rio.Motel.84]

Love your video layout

[@_deroxhd9676]

Great video, comment for the algorithm

[@CrniWuk]

As I feared. Western powers, do not want Ukraine to fall. But they also, for one reason or another, do not want Ukraine to win. And that is, from a military perspective, a very problematic situation. It means that Ukraine gets just enough supplies and support, to hold the frontline. But not the required weapon systems and support they need to actually gain a victory on the battlefield. I always had the opinion that Ukraine should either get all the weapon it needs to beat the Russian army. Or that we have to face a reality of an "inifnite" war. A conflict that simply takes years if not decades to see any kind of resolve. If ever.

[@ZhovtoBlakytniy]

It appears this way maybe, but what do any of us really know about that? We can only speculate.

[@gandalfstormcrow8439]

The Russian economy has about 1 year before it collapses.

[@greenl7661]

Support has been increasing with time. It's the trend that's important. Keep pushing for more support and then one day.. but yes this conflict will take years either way, earliest war can end is 2024, likely later.

[@CrniWuk]

@@ZhovtoBlakytniy When I follow the conversations here in Germany, I feel there is a lot of reservation when it comes to fully comitting to supporting Ukraine. While some arguments have a certain logic, like avoiding escalation with Russia and the conflict increasting I still feel that the current situation represents a deeper problem. The difference of goals some nations have. Germany might be looking at this conflict in a different way then France, Britain or the US. In any case. I often have the feeling that Ukraine gets their weapon systems simply too late. Like what we're seeing now, should have been delivered already 6 months ago. Or the fact that Ukraine is currently performing an offensive, without any kind of air support on their side. Not only does that mean that the conflict will take more time it also means more casualties on the side of Ukraine and maybe even Russia, since they won't retreat so easily and rater fight than move back. I understand that this is a very complex situation. But I feel there is not really a full comittment by NATO and many of the member states.

[@CrniWuk]

@@greenl7661 My fear here really is, considering that most of the NATO states are democracies, that political and most important support in our societies will drop to a point where it becomes increasingly more difficult to support Ukraine from a military perspective. Lets face it, supporting Ukraine will cost money, a lot of money. Not just as far as the Equipment goes, but also once the war is over, when ever that will be. And one can hate or criticise this, but when it comes to the finances, a lot of people will reconsider their positions on Ukraine. Even if they want Ukraine to win and see Russia loosing. It might even give a huge opportunity to right-wing politicans in getting elected if they can manage to somehow benefit from it. No nation will be accepting strong economic hardship for supporting Ukraine I fear.

[@Nyllsor]

Intresting!

[@н.джед.т]

Excellent video. Short, sweet, and punchy. And a great reasoning through what strikes most Western observers as most mysterious about this conflict -- why Russia is losing so badly. Without understanding the difficulty of the morale problem, as a purely logistical & tactical problem, it seems impossible. You explained why, on the contrary, it is inevitable.

[@prrrromotiongiven1075]

I cannot shake the impression that once Ukraine is clear of the minefields in the South with a full commitment of their forces they will just blast through the actual Russian troops largely because of this morale issue.

[@messrsandersonco5985]

This is called "Magical Thinking". Don't forget that Russia has an army which is 6x bigger than Ukraine's. The best we can hope for is a humiliating defeat in a single battle to unseat Putin who is playing the "long game" for very sound reasons!

[@ZhovtoBlakytniy]

​@messrsandersonco5985 what is the long game for an old man living on borrowed time?

[@prrrromotiongiven1075]

@messrsandersonco5985 6x bigger - surely you jest. I can assure you Russia doesn't have millions of men to play around with here.

[@personzorz]

​@@neil__no one can have air superiority in Ukraine with both sides so utterly saturated with anti-air missiles

[@zombygunslinger]

I read an article by an American advisor that was training UKR troops and his concern was with the soviet mentality present in their command. Fear of consequences for taking independent action, lack of innovation by NCOs and soviet static fighting tactics. They seem to have a talent for learning to use foreign weapon systems and have innovated the use of drones, but their command needs modernization if they are to effectively use combined arms offensives. Underestimating the Russians would be a mistake, as long as they can respond to offensives with masses of artillery and have plenty of cannon fodder to hold trenches even a well equipped UKR army can't punch through them. This may change as more long range systems hit the field and possibly hand the artillery advantage to the UKR, but I don't see the Russian army collapsing on the Crimean land bridge (Tokmak, Mariupol, etc.) before the end of summer. I hope I'm wrong.

[@INeedJesus4sure]

Good points, and I do not think it stops at the army. Russia itself could fragment if this war goes really badly, that has always been the case in the past at least.

[@petrogcracker6718]

It is more helpful video then all the other videos before.

[@j.f.fisher5318]

The exponential collapse is the scenario I don't dare hope for. The Prigo situation makes it more likely but it seems like a long way off. Then again, the various preparatory pushes seem to have fared better than the early pushes against the Russian lines in Kherson last year. Though that may just suggest that Russia is relying more on defense in depth this time. We'll know more in a few months heh. Thanks for the great analysis though!

[@bluemarlin8138]

Ukraine’s army is a lot stronger than it was at this time last year. Russia has definitely *planned* to use defense in depth to a much greater extent than it did last year. But because Ukraine’s army is much stronger and Russia can’t be seen to lose ground, it’s hollowing out the fortified positions of men in order to launch counterattacks near the front. This is a strategic gamble. It makes the initial stages of Ukraine’s counteroffensive much more difficult than they otherwise would be, but it relies on the Ukrainians either giving up or running out of steam. If this doesn’t happen, then the actual fortified lines will be much easier to breach when the Ukrainian army actually reaches them. Ironically, it seems as if Ruzzia is trying to use some NATO-style active defense here. But it doesn’t have the overwhelming air power or tactical prowess that NATO does, nor does it have the numerical advantage.

[@ostwelt]

IIRC nobody of any note ever predicted that the Berlin Wall would collapse - when it did - thereby ending the Cold War. Even as Gorbachev introduced liberalising but destabilising reforms. Simply wasn't on the cards. I hope again that we could get a positive Black Swan event with the collapse of the RU army, especially in UA. 🤞

[@EvgeniyYakushev-m2u]

@@bluemarlin8138 And in which war did NATO use "active defense"?

[@nihluxler1890]

That wasn’t a preparatory push. Just like in Kherson, they though they would just blitz through to their major objectives in a few days. Instead, they took a week of horrific beating to their shiny new army, and only then retconned it into a « long distance marathon », except this time there’s no large river cutting through the Russians supply lines to eventually make them withdraw.

[@ostwelt]

@@nihluxler1890 And the alternative was? Say to Western backers "oh thanks for the tanks and kit we begged for now we are going to keep them in storage"? Yeah, that works. UA has been invaded. It intends like any other state in such a position to kick the fuckers out. The failure of that assault shows some determination to make do with what they have as well as amplify calls for the kit they don't. Mostly airpower and air defence. Tactically you are right there isn't a major E-W river behind the RU positions. But operationally i.e. ~100km south or more is a major sea. No army likes going backwards with that behind it! Now that seems a long way off but should RU collapse it will thus retreat E & W not south. A fighting withdrawal might occupy the southern cities Melitopol and Mauripol. These would simply be for political expediency of keeping VVP in the game not military sense.

[@ElijsDima]

Idk Vlad.. this seems like a very optimistic outlook. You are glossing over the rather prevalent hatred that many Russians nowadays have against Ukranians (in their words, nazis) for the sin of having fought back for over a year. That hatred, that viewing of anything non-russian as less-than-human will not simply go away. Furthermore, the Kremlin has rather successfully portrayed this war domestically as "defense of the motherland" - giving up on that may be a step too large for the average soldier.

[@theguybehindyou4762]

Having to suffer and die for those beliefs is another matter.

[@ZhovtoBlakytniy]

They will do whatever the rich guy tells them, just dangle a less evil rich guy in front of them and they will obey.

[@EvgeniyYakushev-m2u]

Not so long ago I watched Gordon's interview with a soldier from Azov and, to put it mildly, the situation and morality on the Ukrainian side is not the same as Vlad describes. "I will consider the war our victory only if Russia falls apart", "I doubt that we will be able to return all our land " and much more. Similar statements were made by one of the GRU officers - "why do we need Donbass?" "This region is filled with Russian separatists and traitors." The general tone of messages changed from last year's successes and from "we will return everything" to "at least something must be returned."

[@Waverlyduli]

Vlad has an incisive mind and his insightful observations are always well served by eloquence in their articulation. 0:37

[@johnfarley2365]

Ha talk about a cliff anger. Jesus it kind of caught me off guard.

[@BenjaminGatti]

This is great

[@maxmeier8784]

ty 4 the effort of making this vid!

[@chaim5128]

Thank you, Vlad. Just one non-substantive comment: please skip background music and dramatic effects. You're quite credible without them.

[@claudiomannoni5557]

another valid take on things by Vlad

[@SL-sd3sg]

I wish it would hurry up and collapse!

[@marcospisanis739]

Vlad, can you talk about India and its Role in the Russian Ukraine war? I feel its underestimated in being talked about because i feel Modi is trying to play the complete field with claiming he wants defenses from China from the US and other Western powers but he wants to ally himself with Russia which has a major ally in China and refuses to do anything to assist Ukraine and insults Zelensky and Ukrainian diplomats.

[@PushyPawn]

So well and eloquently said, almost as if he's a writer.. 🤔

[@kernowpolski]

Great analysis Vlad. Does anyone know the name of the patriotic-sounding music Vlad typically plays when talking about the Russian military or Putin's grandiose dreams?

[@ianlighting100]

Others have said it’s from an old game called Red Alert, where you’d build up 2 opposing armies to win territory.

[@kimstyles5078]

Thank you for your insights, more importantly thank you for putting your work onto a platform where non academics can access it (although technically I am an academic, in the field of geology, however, us rock doctors don't usually get exposed to politics and sociology papers 😊 )