What Does Starship Launch Success Mean for SpaceX Now?

It happened! Starship and SuperHeavy Did Launch for the second time. All 33 raptors were working. Hot staging went as planned. But then both the Booster 9 and Ship 25 were lost. What exactly went wrong and what does it mean for the future of Starship? Finding out with Scott Manley and Marcus House.
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📺 Marcus House:
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00:00:00 Intro
00:01:02 Before IFT-2
00:08:35 The Launch
00:14:19 Hot Staging
00:16:20 What went wrong with SuperHeavy
00:25:00 What went wrong with Starship
00:32:00 What's next?
00:45:58 What it means for Artemis
01:03:00 Final thoughts
Host: Fraser Cain
Producer: Anton Pozdnyakov
Editing: Artem Pozdnyakov
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[@MarcusHouse]

Thanks for the chat Fraser & Scott. Always a pleasure!

[@reasonerenlightened2456]

I am even more convinced that they must place a diaphragm, inside the tank, freely moving downwards ONLY. Anyone who thinks that control of the fuel tank's velocity and acceleration is the only way forward has never tried to flip a partially filled bottle in the air and land it vertically.

[@dtriplett03]

I know this Guy! 😂🎉🚀 Nice Talks Gentlemen, everyone on KZbin should make videos, 🎉

[@brianroberts2402]

I love the science, but an other than American accent makes it better. Hey to Scott !

[@Validole]

I do like seeing interviewees who know the process. You can see Scott pausing after "But they succeeded in protecting the booster, they had other problems... " to see if you want to ask about that or did you have something else in mind.

[@walsh20047]

Based on this rate of progress it will be minimum 20 years before starship is safe for human transport.

[@PinataOblongata]

Scott referencing the famous Clarke and Dawe sketch "the front fell off" while an actual Australian is part of the feed just made my night. Such a legend!

[@sethop_og]

Yes, at 24:30, that was a serious C|N>K moment. Hope they filled Fraser in on the joke; don't think he got it first time round.

[@sethop_og]

I just hope they were responsible enough to tow the remaining wreckage beyond the environment. (cf kzbin.info/www/bejne/aZ6YoquQosR9p68 )

[@fjalics]

Not the only Aussie on youtube. I watch "Perun" every Sunday, and "Engineering with Rosie" whenever she makes something.

[@PinataOblongata]

@@fjalics I'm not familiar with Perun, but Rosie is great 👍

[@smorrow]

install 9front

[@MrDlenrek]

Can we have this trio as an explainer for significant space launches and tests? Great collaboration again like the last time!

[@ambientoccluser]

I think Scott has exactly that every month. His latest video is "Deep Space Updates November 26th" and it covers all of the significant space launches and tests from all of the world in last month.

[@MrDlenrek]

@@ambientoccluser I was thinking more like major new platform milestones or complicated groundbreaking missions not a monthly launch Manifest. A look at the Chinese space station might be an interesting topic

[@FirestormX9]

​@@MrDlenrekit's way harder to get legit and well verified information about the Chinese space station, though.

[@brynalan]

YES !

[@dmillerz]

Thanks, Fraser, for having Scott and Marcus on to discuss the Starship launch. I think the world of all three of you!

[@martythemartian99]

An Australian, a Canadian, and a Scotsman walk into a bar... and talk rockets. 😁

[@tellusmars7770]

​@@martythemartian99That's a good one😂😂 . But yeah those 3 are good and I kinda Love the Starship and Falcon 9. SpaceX Did kinda make Marcus and Scott Fameous with the new Space Rally ❤ But they both are quite good at what they do.🎉

[@Raz.C]

Only 'the world,' huh? You think "The World" of the publisher of "Universe Today?" It seems like quite the downgrade...

[@buttcube6085]

marcus should shave his head then it could be the bald space guy trinity

[@surferdude4487]

Getting the analysis from all three of you at the same time is absolute gold! Thanks for getting together.

[@petevenuti7355]

Dream team

[@AndriiMuliar]

Marcus House is not relevant to this discussion at all. He loves SpaceX, so he refuse to see all potential problems like atmosphere drag and damage to a rocket due to it, insufficient structural rigidity to perform rapid descent into lower atmosphere, oxygen damage to a rocket structure due to rapid heating. No one thinks that Starship is doomed. Why?

[@MrDlenrek]

@@AndriiMuliar how is he not relevant? He has been tracking the launch site developments closely and of all the folks that do that weekly, he is most likely to question their approach. Scott is pretty impartial but doesn’t follow the day to day construction and launch site goings on as closely.

[@surferdude4487]

@@AndriiMuliar Interesting question. How many super-heavy boosters have you worked on? I only ask because the brightest engineers and material scientists in the world are working on Starship and they seem to think that this monstrosity is going to work.

[@AndriiMuliar]

@@surferdude4487 This is dumb question from the believer. You must be critical because SpaceX is burning money, spending more than SpaceX will ever return. Yes, SpaceX will go bankrupt eventually. And Elon Must lied so many times and tricked investors with fairy tale projects like HyperLoop, Self Driving cars, stupid tunnels a.k.a subways so you should never believe this scumbag.

[@archielundy3131]

LOVE this!! Thanks to all of you who made this possible both in front and behind the camera. When Scott was advancing his theory on the destruction of the booster in detail, Fraser and Marcus looked like students hanging on every word of a master. 🚀

[@badrinair]

One of my favorite shows. Three of my most favorite science and space communicators in one episode is the best. Thank you for coordinating this one Fraser

[@davidladd5597]

I didn’t hear anybody suggest that the second stage might have damaged its own engines by reflection of the discharge against the hot staging cap?

[@davidladd5597]

Do we know if SPX has, or has plans to, recover the thrust puck and engines from the wreckage of the starship?

[@badrinair]

@@davidladd5597 AFAIK, their plan is to sink the booster along with the hotstage ring using FTS. They don't want a 100 tonne 70 meter floating object on sea

[@davidladd5597]

@@badrinair I’d think that the self-destruct devices would have ruptured both primary tanks and left insufficient displacement for it to float (assuming is was still in one piece. Looking forward to hearing what they did to prevent a loss of sufficient acceleration to keep the fuel and oxidizer against their respective tank’s outlet plumbing.

[@angrydoggy9170]

@@badrinairThe thing destroyed itself. No need for a self destruct if it’s ripping itself apart.

[@CaliforniaBushman]

Always a real treat to see these three guys stream together over a big launch. Only more to come with better launches. Awesome.

[@ToxisLT]

A Scotsman, an Aussie and a Canadian walk into a bar - I want to bee there too!!! ;)

[@stellarpod]

Excellent analysis and presentation from my three favorite space journalists. (But I wouldn't have expected any less) As always, thanks much for sharing. Steve

[@NorthernChev]

Thank you, Fraser, for moderating this so well. Honestly, this was much more pleasant to watch.

[@SanderHollebrand]

This is so cool, I love to see these great names in space journalism in one great smorgasbord of joyous sharing of knowledge and having great fun doing it. Thank you, Fraser, for this epic piece of content! ❤

[@stephenwise3635]

They do work well together :)

[@miou118google]

Marcus and Scott are always very entertaining to listen because of their knowledge on the subject. Very cool analysis by you guys ;)

[@lindajirka5020]

Love these shows!! Need one after every Starship test flight. Thank all of you for taking the time to produce it.

[@sffretheim8547]

GREAT conversation! Looking forward to the next installment. May it become a regular feature.

[@robinsonmitchell9995]

Perhaps the second tower under construction at Boca Chica is a landing catcher tower only in order to mitigate the threat of destroying the launch infrastructure if a landing fails. Or at least temporarily in this role until the catching of boosters is fully ready for serial use at least as reliable as F9 landings on the drone ships.

[@robertmiller9735]

That would be a good idea. Catching it at the launch tower is only needed when they go for operational rapid relaunch, which probably will never be done at Boca anyway.

[@terrysullivan1992]

Damn good idea. Way less expensive at first. Then it could be expanded as a launch tower later.

[@KGTiberius]

Often my favorite… because there is dialogue and differences in takes. The CONVERSATION is better than the standard educational model. Thank you for doing this.

[@OVTraveller]

This post launch presentation was almost as good as the original launch. Hope these guys will continue to conduct all future post launch chats.

[@shaylennaidoo]

You 3 ‘tubers are the best on the net doing this work. Keep it up! Topics are broad and informative and devoid of the usual pandering and junk that other channels succumb to. ❤

[@georgegyulatyan3263]

I really enjoy these sessions. Hopefully there will be more like this with Marcus and Scott

[@cebrith]

Thanks for bringing such a great group together. Brilliant discussion.

[@florin2tube]

Guys, this is one of the greatest talks on the space I saw lately. I'm following all of you and I think you should make such talks regularly. Congrats!

[@zanpsimer7685]

What a treat to listen to you three together. Thank you! And More please!

[@GrumblingForesight]

Been waiting for this. The comprehensive analysis of what happened. Thanks Fraser, Marcus & Scott!

[@kstaxman2]

One great video. You three work so well together and each of you bring a different perspective to the discussion. Thanks!

[@SukacitaYeremia]

This is a much needed come-together session after a very impressive launch that answers and generates a ton of questions. Thanks for hosting it too. I'm glad your direction has helped move the talk in a passionate area for both the guests and for us viewers. and probably for you too! p.s. I really appreciate isolating the recording in order to make sure interruptions can be edited out by muting one or two participants who are understandably excited and have little time.

[@brianlink391]

00:01 SpaceX Starship's second launch had complications 02:17 Successful launch within the narrow 20-minute window 06:11 Starship launch faced challenges with exhaust gases and booster protection 08:14 Successful launch and trajectory execution. 12:39 Successful passage through max Q with no issues 14:40 Redirecting the sea level engines for thrust adjustment 18:44 Acceleration going negative caused booster failure. 20:42 Preventing propellant from going negative is crucial for avoiding damage and maintaining thrust 24:32 Starship launch success and potential issues with shut down sequence 26:22 Astronomy Live captured footage of the Starship nose spinning and breaking off. 30:03 SpaceX's successful Starship launch needed precise trajectory to avoid potential hazards. 32:01 SpaceX has three prototypes getting close to testing 35:24 FAA regulations may change due to the Starship incident. 37:06 Starship may not fly till mid-2024 due to technological challenges. 40:53 Upgraded shielding and engine design for improved safety and reusability 42:36 Raptor engines pushing limits with high pressures and flow rates. 46:22 SpaceX won the contract due to funding and readiness 48:16 Starship to the Moon presents new challenges for SpaceX 52:06 Starship's design and materials may prevent catastrophic failures during re-entry. 54:08 The importance of keeping thermal tiles attached to the Starship. 58:04 SpaceX is working on new tower sections for Starship. 59:48 Starship needs to demonstrate re-entry and landing with capture on the towers. 1:03:26 SpaceX's Starship launch was successful despite challenges 1:05:24 The importance of fully reusable rockets for future space missions.

[@kitersrefuge7353]

Absolutely superb! Thank you to all. Takeaways: 1. The simulation of the separation at Spacex was not good enough 2. Since there was no payload adding 100 tons as is the target, would be a stretch...so Spacex needs to do better...personally I cannot see them trimming the 3 tons Marcus mentioned and the Raptors are at max as Scott said 3. The heat shields are critical to the successful re-entry but probably given what Scott said, not as critical as it was to the Shuttle 4. Refuelling et. al. means Spacex has an ENROMOUS amount of work still to do to even think of being part of Artemis or even more the Occupy Mars.

[@robertcollinson]

Thanks Fraser, Scott and Marcus for such a great and informative catch-up. Well done! See you guys on another feed soon!

[@jasonburrow4551]

Love having you 3 together, it’s awesome.

[@wspepsilon]

I think there's a high likelihood of seeing an initially "Catch only" tower built to prove out that capability. They can always add the launch specific hardware at a later date once they prove that they can safely and reliably catch these things out of mid air.

[@knowledgeisgood9645]

They don't catch the booster. The booster lands on the chopsticks.

[@reasonerenlightened2456]

They must place a diaphragm, inside the tank, freely moving downwards ONLY. Anyone who thinks that control of the fuel tank's velocity and acceleration is the only way forward has never tried to flip a partially filled bottle in the air and land it vertically.

[@johndoepker7126]

Its taken me 2 Days to watch this....bits here an there while on break at work....wasn't really enjoying myself....here i am on a nice quiet night off....watched the WHOLE show in full from start to finish.....and LOVED every minute of it !!!! What a treat having 2 of my favorites on your show talkin Starship !!! Thanks so Much for this !!!! Edit: (Also got some laundry did while watching....so my wife' is happy too !!!)

[@11moonshot]

hihihi! (German for: hahahaha! - sort of giggling!°;-)

[@roborchiston9419]

Loved this sober well facilitated off-the-cuff chat with these two commentary leaders. Would love to see other talking combos such as Tim vs Felix or Zack vs Kevin or Jordan vs Ellie etc. Hope the initial catches are on a separate inert tower several miles from stage zero until they can park that thing on a dime.

[@ioresult]

Yess! Marcus and Scott! This is an interview show of the kind I like!

[@savetheplantet5799]

What an awesome discussion. You guys are great thinkers and I understood every bit of it. That's the key. I get excited for every ep! You're the man Frasier!

[@Astras-Stargate]

Tnx for an in-depth look from some of my favorite space and astronomy guys!

[@bigdogben]

Loved this the first time, was looking forward to it!

[@tool3833]

This was very cool. Thank you very much for producing it.

[@MarinCipollina]

Thanks for a great one, Fraser !! Fascinating.

[@GerardHammond]

Excellent pacing/questions Fraser! Well done as a debate moderator

[@royemory800]

Definitely entertaining. Looking forward to a future podcast by this group of three talented folks.

[@craigriddell1169]

Very curious just how fast and how high the rocket would have gone with a 100 tonne dummy payload on the Starship. It struck me as a concern even on the first launch after losing a few engines how the performance was affected on an empty rocket. Is this rocket really capable of getting 100 to 150 tons to LEO as has been claimed. As Marcus commented , is there as much margin lift to orbit as they claim. It will be very interesting what they find as the cause of the demise of the Starship. I had wished they had done an all up actual launch of just the Starship to see exactly what it is capable of without the booster as a suborbital vehicle which would have also been able to test the thermal protection system and controlled sea landings at least and possibly a tower landing with a smaller , lighter vehicle and only expending 6 Raptors rather than 39 Raptors .

[@johnjaw19]

Just watched his again after 2 months. Really good, entertaining and informative. Thanks guys.

[@user-qr6md4zo9o]

This guys are great. So are you, Fraser. Thanks for the show.

[@douglasmarkussen8529]

I like this trio in discussions. I've been following each of you independently, but the combination of insights and opinions is so much better. Hope to see more.

[@EricMarquardt-ku4hj]

Oh, you and Scott and Marcus were great. Thank you for such an awesome conversation.

[@seadog8807]

Great interview / discussion, many thanks for posting! 👍👍

[@richardstewart1784]

3 of my favorite space commentators. Great stuff, thanks

[@rikkafe6050]

An excellent format with an entertaining analysis.

[@koiyujo1543]

YES!!!!!!!!!!!!! SCOTT MANLY AND MARCUS HOUSE AWESOME!!!!!!!

[@udhdbdjxisskka]

Awesomeee. You guys need to do this on regular basis.

[@mountedpatrolman]

Great show Fraser, always love seeing you and Scott on the same show.

[@chammockutube]

Engineering appreciation for all three of you!!!!

[@brucemasi412]

Outstanding analysis, looking forward to IFT3

[@Gusman007]

Fantastic analysis by two of my favourite rocket commentators - good effort Fraser!

[@JenniferA886]

Great video Fraser 👍👍👍

[@brianvanschyndel8686]

That was a great KZbin , podcast, whatever you want to call it. I enjoyed that. Good speakers. Informative. Answered a lot of questions that I had.

[@GeorgeWMays]

Great show. Thanks. Appreciated.

[@herbbayer9099]

Thanks guys!!

[@morrgash]

Great episode thank you very much :)

[@SeaTacDelta]

Great show Fraser. Always fun hearing these guys debate. They seem to work well together.

[@richardaitkenhead]

Thanks for putting this together i doubt 90% of people wouldn't love to be on your show, scott manley is basically a celebrity and i only recently found marcus through you, im happy i did most space ship channels are just click bait or lies, Marcus is where u get the real dirt , all 3 legends thanks guys ❤ keep it up.

[@shirolee]

Yes!!! I watch both Marcus and Scott!

[@timrodgers8551]

Your shows are always the best!

[@christelting1359]

Thank you for finally speculating on possible explanations for the failures.

[@TomiLoveless]

😎👍👍👍You guys made my month! I commented on this yesterday, these guys being who You want to here from all matters space! Before I saw this Post! Great Interview! All time best on my list. Thank You So Much!!!

[@thomasboomer9809]

My two favs for things space related are Marcus House and Scott Manley. Having you with them makes an impressive trio, and takes the crown. I liked seeing the discourse between the three of you dicusssing things, rather than prepared scripted productions we typically see. I would like to comment about the water deluge system at Starbase. I saw a report somewhere, it might have been the one from the FAA before IFT2, that indicated the amount of water from a test or a launch is still small when compared to the amount of fresh water dumped by a rainstorm in that area. So the environmental impact of that is really neglible. I am looking forward to IFT3 in early 2024. I think 2024 wil be the year things really pickup speed for the launch cadence of Super Heavy. Excitement is guaranteed.

[@cheddar2648]

I really respect Scott's guarded and pragmatic optimism.

[@rjswas]

Wow, fellow Tasmanian, Marcus house and the master himself, Scott Manly, couldn't ask for a better pair on your channel to teach you more. Good call and well done all.

[@StereoSpace]

I really enjoyed this group discussion and analysis.

[@frasercain]

Awesome

[@davidswift9120]

I really love it when you three do this. The best eggs in the same basket!

[@toms-cubes-and-games]

Much stimuli for the old grey fungus, as usual. Thanks, Fraser and co.

[@iamarobotninja]

Great talk! Thanks

[@PaulShanley]

Fraser, What is perfection? Is anything perfect, really?? Your decision to pair up with Marcus and Scott to cover the second SpaceX Starship test flight was, at the least, perfectly brilliant. So much so that I wonder if the declaration above is partly due to me being a General American Dialect speaking individual, actively listening to the combined effect of three unique and nuanced, non-U.S. accented, English speaking individuals. For instance as well as contrast, would I have gushed like I have above, for Tim hosting Kevin and Ellie for a post flight discussion? I digress. This is one of my favorite long forms of yours and as an aspiring, yet to start, short form*, space commentator - I am motivated even more by the high bar that all three of you set. Together, and individually. I am looking forward to “one more round“ of this trio. Your thoughtful epilogue - with a meta comments commentary, even - was yet another great example of your provocative and evocative demeanor cum style. Thank you for all of that, and Godspeed. Paul p.s. If this episode of your KZbin channel and programming, does not end up being the impetus for me to create a Patreon account and patreonize my first creative - you - I will be surprised and disappointed. No hate please - I know that “patreonize” is not a word. *lolololol.. The nerve of me using the word “short”, anywhere within this comment!

[@jamessimon3433]

Totally geeking out over this episode thank fellas

[@FatCatAlleyMinute]

Fraser, please have these 2 on again! (all my favorites)

[@Chumhart]

I got up at five o'clock AM my time and started looking on the web about the launch. When the ship launch I had three different monitors on different websites showing the launch. It was fun ! I hope I see another launch before 2024

[@paulthew2]

Excellent guests, excellent video!

[@dannyunixanalyst9018]

This is really good. Great to see the whole gang together. The forum would benefit from having Zach along from CSI Starbase next time. You're a good host Fraser.

[@gregsutton2400]

collaboration really adds to this discussion.

[@davidmcsween]

Nice post production on this video. Little heads in boxes can be frustratingly hard

[@jukeservices]

This was fun! One thing I think many forget, this was ONLY the 2ND flight

[@benedictmarshall7031]

Great to see a joint session between the three of you - it’s a real sense of community. Quick question - would it be possible for SpaceX to try using electric actuators or magnetic repulsion to push Starship away from the Booster? It could be a gentler option that would potentially reduce the fuel slosh.

[@meskes4059]

There's going to be slawsh anyway. They should baffle the tanks

[@zimmy1958]

Loved the interviews.

[@continental_drift]

"the front fell off", Mr. Clarke would be so proud.

[@Capt.Turner]

Great analysis once again. It's really fun to dive into the details with you guys. @Marcus: Drag at 140+ km altitude doesn't appear to be realistic, does it ?

[@bbbenj]

A very interesting episode 👍

[@peterkemp4235]

Wow.....great summary by my best space friends on the internet, and such gentlemen.Inspiration for the youth.

[@bobbyshaftoe]

This is such a great trio. Great analysis:-))

[@douglaswilkinson5700]

Scott, remember that Saturn V's F-1 engines each have more power that 3 little Raptors.

[@clarencehopkins7832]

I’ll ride this thing, excellent stuff bro

[@theccieguy]

Great Job 👍

[@bArthurt777]

I'm not a Elon Musk fan boy. I'm here for the host and guests. And the future of space travel,

[@PlanetXMysteries-pj9nm]

"thank you for uploading these videos. Even if I'm having a hard night, I just put a relaxing astronomy video on and listen. It always makes my nights go much easier. Thank you!!!"

[@SilverWolf-VR]

What about the fire from the hot stage section while it was leaving the pad?

[@knowledgeisgood9645]

They don't catch the booster. The booster lands on the chopsticks. I am convinced the critical problem to solve is to make the landing be within the small tolerances needed to level up near the chopsticks, then float/hover inward into the arms until there is contact with the stringers on both sides. Only then does it lower down the last bit and land. The chopsticks have hydraulic dampers that will soften the landing even further. They will land at sea until they achieve that accuracy - more than once.

[@knowledgeisgood9645]

@@leonskum6864 Funny you say that. The same thing was said about Falcon 9. It lands with zero fuel left - can't even hover. Check how many times it has landed on barges moving around on the waves of the ocean. The chopsticks will not even move.

[@jebes909090]

@@knowledgeisgood9645 no catching booster is infinitely more stupid. its not gonna work

[@knowledgeisgood9645]

@@jebes909090 It might not, but it is safer than trying to land on legs. Landing on the hooks is stable (it can't topple).

[@jebes909090]

@@knowledgeisgood9645 the only real thing on booster worth anything is the engines. I wonder if theres a way to decouple the bottom section and just recover that.

[@knowledgeisgood9645]

@@jebes909090 That would defeat the purpose of Starship - fast reusability. And a waste.

[@nickfosterxx]

Late to this (sorry) but two requests for future episodes: 1. Numbers, please! acceleration graphs, G forces, fuel consumption, what is the real value of Max Q etc. Sure you probably have to estimate this stuff, but who else to ask.. ; ) 2. More guests, such as CSI starbase and E'day Astro. (some of my keys don't work or I would type their names. Sorry) Anyways, thanks so much for this, big fan of you all, great team.

[@Porrohman19]

You know it is going to be worth watching when Fraser, Marcus and Scott get together again.

[@RawandCookedVegan]

Great video. Nice to see Scott and Marcus together. Nice job. What metal do they use for the orbital launch mount? Wouldn't it be cheaper and safer to have something like a fuel depot the size if the ISS or bigger where starship could dock and fully fuel? Having to launch fueling starships into the high teens sounds fraught with difficulty. But I guess the costs of an orbital fuel depot would be astronomical.

[@Ava31415]

Aced it, reiterative testing works for thiss video as well!