What if there's no Mario at launch?

[@sethfeldpausch4337]

I don’t think Nintendo is “rolling the dice” this time, considering how safe and iterative the Switch 2 is by nature. I think they wanna recreate the success of the Switch, and they don’t wanna do anything that could flop. Mario will be there day one! In fact, I find it likely that we will get MK9 at launch and the next 3D Mario at holiday time!

[@IAmNotASandwich453]

I feel like it should be the other way around. MK8 kinda got an update recently with the DLCs, whereas Odyssey never got anything, so the latest "3D Mario content" (Ok, Bowsers fury still exists), is older than MK8. Also, Mario Kart is more of a game the entire family can play, maybe thats better suited for christmas

[@One-ct3xe]

Safe bet

[@chrisbarnes3660]

Other way round for sure

[@elliotsturtplus340]

Agreed Although I still think Will probably get something Mario day one, even if it isn’t Mario kart or 3D Mario who knows maybe it’s something new personally I want a real sequel to Marius sports mix but I doubt that’s gonna be very likely *and no that 3DS Mario spots game don’t count*

[@DANCERcow]

Pokemon legends z a will launch with the console together holiday 2025. Prime 4 will be out before the console and will thus be a launch title by virtue of already existing!

[@KirbsDeConz]

“Nintendo has forgotten about Mario”

[@therealjaystone2344]

Nin10doland reference

[@SailBros_204]

Okay lol

[@QuantumChrist]

How many mario games we have this 2024?

[@tommoody728]

It’s been so long since a new 3D Mario so it feels right. It’s even longer since a new Mario Kart though.

[@CraitMerc]

Imagine they release a new Star Fox at launch that reinvents the franchise to the same degree BOTW did for Zelda. 99.9% likely won't happen, but wow, that'd be something.

[@storyteller2285]

Wishful thinking for Star Fox is the only thing we have left for the franchise..

[@CraitMerc]

@storyteller2285 Amen brother

[@EnigmaticGentleman]

Honestly, my bet is they launch with Mariokart, big seller but ultimately not something that'll have people rushing to the system, then a few months later once the base is built up they drop the big 3D Mario, and a lot of their hardcore fans will be able to have the shared experience of discovering what that title has to offer.

[@keyblader6]

I would think the opposite. 3D Mario is more suited to diehard fans, who will buy the console at launch anyway. Launching a Mario Kart before the holiday would be perfect timing to draw in a more casual userbase

[@therealjaystone2344]

@@keyblader6 The console will sell out regardless of the software whether it's Mario or not

[@keyblader6]

@@therealjaystone2344 I mean, I watched the video. I know the case for that. It’s still unlikely they would want a launch without a big title in a flagship franchise

[@therealjaystone2344]

@ GameCube didn’t had a killer app until a month later with smash melee. Wii sports is just a filler title while twilight Princess is a GameCube game. Mario bros u isn’t the killer app people want for the Wii U. Botw is a Wii U too for switch.

[@keyblader6]

@@therealjaystone2344 cool, most of their consoles have launched with a Mario platformer

[@Dakress23]

Then it will be his brother's turn.

[@HenrikoMagnifico]

Then the rapture has come

[@stroyosh4670]

ITS THE END OF THE WORLD RUUUUUUN

[@JCSA79V]

I can see 3D Mario being saved for September, the anniversary month.

[@z.7473]

It fits, but the anniversary isn’t much of a concern for their business as a whole. They would be much better off releasing it as a launch title. Unless they launch with Mario Kart…

[@JCSA79V]

@z.7473 it isn't much of a concern, but they do tend to have something for September in recent memory. Super Mario Maker in 2015, 3D All Stars in 2020.

[@eelmail2077]

I honestly think Prime 4 is likely to be a launch title. Remember Nintendo has stated that the Switch successor will be backwards compatible, and Mariokart 8 Deluxe just finished its DLC cycle. I bet the other launch title would be a new Animal Crossing.

[@golgot5935]

I started to write after 2/3 minutes of video, then erased it : you covered everything I wanted to ! Good job !

[@drbenben]

Careful, we don’t want to manifest anything into existence But I think your right, I wouldn’t be overly surprised if there was no 3D launch title but instead a Mariokart launch plus regular releases and then a big 3D Mario game for the holiday season surge

[@BFG-rr9cv]

Would be very foolish to not have the top selling franchise at launch. Plus I'm pretty convinced by the leak with the MK9 bundle, since it got so many other details on the Switch 2 right.

[@vianabdullah2837]

The thing about a new internal Nintendo IP is that I wonder what genres aren't already covered by existing franchises. The only thing I can think of are big and bombastic Action RPGs like you see with Monster Hunter, Elden Ring or God of War.

[@DDKoD]

@@vianabdullah2837 In terms of New genres, Action RPG is like the only thing left. Tho them doing a traditional Fighter or FPS could count. Guess Traditional Horror could count too

[@GiancarloThomazSenoni]

​@@DDKoD cant Nintendo reboot Mysterious Castle Muramasa as a action RPG?

[@DDKoD]

@@GiancarloThomazSenoni I mean they could but a New IP seems much cooler and grander

[@PolitiClank]

​@@DDKoD At that point, it is a fine line between starting a new IP. A retro revival that old would be akin to Kid Icarus; essentially a new thing, albeit inspired by the original concept and thus it would just depend on what was more inspiring to Nintendo's team.

[@IISuzakuII]

No keep those things a launch window titles.... we dont have to reinvent the wheel. Have a killer app at lanuch then load up for the holidays.

[@orzi_gami]

I’m rather puzzled as to why everyone seems to have such strong expectations for the next Home-Console to launch with a 3D Mario-That hasn’t happened since 1996! Almost 30 years ago! The gap between releases is longer this time, however. 64 to Sunshine was 6 years, Sunshine to Galaxy was 5, and Galaxy 2 to 3D World was 3. It’ll have been almost 8 years since the last 3D Mario! Except… While not a fully-fleshed title, Bowser’s Fury is about 5 now. I’m not fully convinced they’ve cooked a gargantuan open-world 3D Mario in that time. Still possible, but I’m expecting the next one to launch relatively closely to Odyssey’s schedule.

[@olimar_09]

I think this is a big thing in the 3D Mario vs Mario Kart debate that people are kind of missing! Assuming the BCP didn’t require too much manpower in the grand scheme of things, EPD 9 have had at least since 2017 to make their next game as perfect as can be, whereas the 3D Mario team have had a lot of different projects revolving around their workspace probably up until 2021 (Bowser’s Fury, the canned[?] SilverStar project). While I don’t expect EPD 8 are in that much of a bad position to have their next game be set up as a launch title, I have to assume the next Mario Kart has probably been sitting around near-finished for some time now. Therefore it would be a lot safer imo for the company to launch with Mario Kart in the safety of the knowledge that both games get to release being as good as they can be.

[@WestonMeyer-n6x]

Because Odyssey was over 7 years ago?

[@nintendoforecast]

@olimar_09 Great point though I guess EPD 9 more frequently do multiple projects at once (MK7 & Nintendogs; MK8D & Arms) which could complicate things. But yeah, it would be bizarre for MK not to be ready after all this time given it's their golden goose.

[@olimar_09]

@nintendoforecast good point yourself, I totally missed that lol. If that is the case I really hope we see what else they’ve been working on soon as well - they’re probably my favourite in-house team at Nintendo all things considered!

[@Neoxon619]

I feel like there’s a difference between something like DK that has a decent amount of popularity (more so than Pikmin, more on that later) despite not being up there in the big leagues & a franchise that has struggled to sell well in Japan & doesn’t do much better elsewhere like Metroid. So by that metric, MP4 being the main launch title is a massive risk. One other thing to note regarding the video, I’m not sure if Pikmin is really in the big leagues just yet……at least not globally. It probably is in Japan considering how well Pikmin 4 sold over there, but the series is still niche everywhere else. It’s mostly uplifted by Japanese popularity as well as Miyamoto nepotism (which isn’t necessarily a bad thing).

[@DisturbedNeo]

Nintendo needs to convince existing Switch owners to upgrade to the Switch 2 with a must-buy title to justify the large console stock they've been building up for months now. Only Mario, Zelda or Pokemon can be that kind of title. With no new Zelda or mainline Pokemon game expected anytime soon (Z-A is just a spinoff), a major Mario release, either a 3D title or Mario Kart, is essential to avoid poor sales.

[@amadeus.7436]

Pretty sure Mario will be at launch, because why not?

[@lucanos34]

This video just went over your "why not?" 🙄

[@amadeus.7436]

@lucanos34 Wasn't very compelling though. I mean, it's been so long since Odyssey that they definitely have the next game ready by now. They haven't just been twiddling their thumbs for 7 years.

[@therealjaystone2344]

@@amadeus.7436pretty sure a new Mario game is gonna be a second half of the year launch title

[@HoboWithAShotgun]

If Metroid prime 4 is the main launch title, it will be a disaster. I really hope it's a 3d Mario

[@PikaPhantomVG]

The main sticking point with Prime 4 is Metroid not being terribly popular in Japan. With strong reviews and careful planning (namely having another major release soon after but spaced out enough for Prime 4 to breathe) it could maybe pay off, since Zelda was in a similar boat, but Prime is inherently geared towards the Western market. Maybe Nintendo could have a second launch title specifically meant to be the killer app in Japan without stealing Metroid's thunder? I think Tomodachi Life or Nintendogs could fit that role

[@wootmasterzorsx]

I’m not sure what they’ll launch with, but 3D Mario is definitely coming early on. Launch window, if not a launch title.

[@jamesho8258]

1:14 those are fighting words

[@str8poisintv131]

Mario kart 9 is going to be the entire launch campaign for the 1st 5 years of switch 2

[@RiqMoran]

I wouldnt expect it at launch. Mario kart day 1.

[@alexanderfaulkner]

You are literally the best Nintendo tuber out there. Somehow you can talk about the switch 2 like everyone else is but it's massively more interesting

[@nintendoforecast]

Thank you so much!

[@RiqMoran]

I think Prime 4 has been done and theyve been sitting on it for months now. So it will be there on launch but i dont think it will be the only big launch title. Gamecube had Prime and Smash for instance.

[@PedroTawa]

I am glad Mario wonder came out that could have been the first day release, we most likely will get a great new 3d Mario in a year! 🎉

[@Nononoah9]

8:30 I don’t get this logic since BOTW also released on Wii U?

[@Hamzaro64]

A new IP launch title could be a big hit, just look at Wii Sports.

[@chrisbarnes3660]

Do a new Fire Emblem at launch!! FE4 remake is long rumoured and that’s a banger of a game, pretty damn unlikely to lead with that but I’d be well up for it

[@DDKoD]

As mucg as I would LOVE that, FE isn’t a system seller yet.

[@Neoxon619]

Fire Emblem is in a similar position as Metroid, it’s not a system seller. Plus the FE4 remake is reported to be purely a Switch 1 title.

[@One-ct3xe]

There might be an upset triple A third party game on launch

[@E-ma-thoma]

Mario kart at launch mp4 following month

[@alphamarigi]

It will launch with a Luigi game, Wario game, Peach Game, Yoshi game or Donkey Kong game.

[@Cody-5501]

I’m more concerned about if it will have a Zelda at launch and hopefully not some sort of “botw remaster” bull

[@IzzyXD1019]

2001 with the Nintendo GameCube: No Mario launch release with console 2006 with Wii: No Mario launch release with console 2017 with Nintendo Switch: No Mario launch release with console I won't be surprise if there's no Mario launch release with the next Nintendo console

[@riventv4927]

In terms of the Switch, Oddysey came out on the same year, almost being a launch title especially since it was announced at the Switch event.

[@mh22xv]

That would be great. Give other ips a chance. I would love a f-Zero GX remake twilight princess remake, pilot wings remake.

[@undergroundhiphopfan6335]

You forgot 1-2 Switch when talking about Switch launch.

[@DDKoD]

He mentioned it and rightfully said it was dissapointing

[@Zakster10]

Impossible.

[@user-be3qc7re9o]

Nothing is impossible.

[@danielebowman]

I think the Wii and Switch showed that launching with a major title and a game that shows off the system gimmic is essential. It was Zelda for those titles, but the Switch showed that having another banger the next month and over every few months of that launch year is essential. As there will be no new Zelda, the launch title probably needs to be 3D Mario, with Mario Kart soon after and another BIG title in the same year with some major third party games in between. A 2D Mario doesn't work, because it isn't a system seller, or at least as big a system seller as a 3D Mario and Zelda. 2D games don't feel as big a way to show off a consoles capabilities. It's a game you buy if you have the system, but not one you buy the system for, for many at least. Even the fantastic Mario Wonder wouldn't work as a system seller as well as 3D Mario. I suspect it would be wise to ensure a Zelda remake in leu of a new Zelda is available soon after launch and that the New Zelda comes sooner rather than later (But obviously don't rush it and contradictory as it sounds, Nintendo's besting selling consoles get a Zelda sooner if not at launch). Obviously it looks like Pokemon Legends Z-A will be multiplatform but year 2 will deffo need the next gen Pokemon game for it to be good. But Nintendo will need 2 or 3 bangers on top for year 2 to maintain momentum. Maybe some 3rd party remakes would help too, I'd love a new version of Street Fighter IV or perhaps an Alpha like series alongside SF VI. Oh and a Chronotrigger remake would be heavenly.

[@DDKoD]

Wonder sold over 13 mollion my guy. If that isn’t a system seller than let me know who your dealer is.

[@riventv4927]

@@DDKoD While I don't agree with the comparison, the reason Wonder got 13 mil is largely because the Switch has a large install base. Although I don't agree with the comparison of OP because 2D Marios have shown that they are and will always be part of the Nintendo ecosystem because that is what a lot of people grew up with, whether its the boring NSMB series or something quirky like Wonder, it will always be a system seller.

[@DDKoD]

@@riventv4927 The large install base argument only works for something niche. 2D Mario has always sold super well. The only this remotely close to a blip was on the Wii U and even then NSMBD ended up selling 20 million on the switch with bettee circumstances(better system and not 5 months after an inferior version which in itself still sold very well)

[@danielebowman]

@@DDKoD That's selling lot of games, the number of people who brought a Switch went down that year and the year after. As I said some games get people to buy the system, some games are just brought if you ahve the system. New super Maio Bros deluxe couldn't sell the Wii U but still sold a lot when available on the Switch.

[@DDKoD]

@@danielebowman NSMBU couldn’t sell a WiiU because the WiiU was a whole can of worms in itself, lets not act like it wasn’t. If something sells over 10 million units, it’s clearly a system seller. Just go back and look at previous 2D mario titles before 2012. Hell the FIRST propper Nintendo Console’s main system seller is a 2D Mario, that can’t refuted no matter what angle you try to take. Definitely more of a system seller than Metroid, SF, or some pie in the sky remake/remaster

[@deatheater810]

I think they will launch with Metroid Prime 4 and a 3d mario game I don't think they will launch with a 2d mario

[@malo932]

Mario will come end of 2025

[@ajculum723]

I’d be rather disappointed

[@davidtitanium22]

If not a launch title, maybe close to launch, not as far as the holidays idk

[@kenseikc]

mariokart9 is a rumored launch title and a new mario standalone title should soon follow hopefully

[@robbysalz8710]

I want an open world Mario Kart game....BurnOut Paradise, Forza Horizon introduced the concept, and Nintendo could really innovate upon it.

[@waffledoesagacha4971]

Idk man your predictions are kind of dumb.

[@cyxceven]

Franchise fatigue is also a consideration. Also: If MK9 is lacking an MK99 mode, I will cry.