The method you explained is the top down method and not what I would call true positive ev. It can help you identify positive ev but the method itself is top down. Keep your own stats on a spreadsheet directly from the league website and compare that against the books. Sharp books can be wrong also and you can have total confidence if you are doing it yourself. For example I use mean median and mode of player sog in NHL and if I see a player is hitting the over 60 percent of the time and a book is offering it at 50 percent....that's a good bet. Top down method is a legit method though. Not trying to downplay it.
@OutlierDotBet17 күн бұрын
Totally agree with that assessment! Any time you can model your own system (and backtest it) will give you a profound edge over any other kind of public data. We'd love to get to the point one day where we can allow users to build models similar to what you're referencing.
@pocketsurprise380517 күн бұрын
@OutlierDotBet and I wish I could afford to purchase outlier or any other software system like outlier or unabated. Really wish so. Keep up the good work!