What is Simple Exponential Smoothing? - Time Series Forecasting in Python

[@NomadicBrian]

Nice. I'm starting to figure this out. Doing some NFL QB stats and want to forecast/predict/guess the next game stats. Looked at XGB, then ARIMA and learned enough to know I want a time series forecast but my stats don't have a good trend, seasonal yes but not seasonal in the model sense and no cycle. Much variation week to week. The only influencing factor I am using is the opposing team passing defense ranking. Will switch to this model. I'm still wondering if I can feed the defensive factor in to train the model and have it predict and adjusted outcome.

[@egorhowell]

Hey, sorry but I don’t have enough context without the code, data etc. to help on this :)

[@NomadicBrian]

@@egorhowell No problem. I think I realized that some problems just don't need a model. If the model is just getting an average for instance I can just do the math myself. I was just working on QB passing stats and predicting the stat for the next game. I just went with the next team on the schedule defensive stats to adjust the prediction using the cumulative average for the stat up to that point. But I enjoyed learning about a few models and played with data that had trend, seasonality and cycle. Thanks for sharing.

[@egorhowell]

no problem, glad you found it useful :)

[@the_greatbonnie]

Great video, Egor

[@egorhowell]

Thanks Bonnie!