What Is The 4% Rule? How Much Money Do I Need To Retire?

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In this video, I want to explain the 4% rule. This is also known as the Safe Withdrawal Rate - or basically the rate at which you can spend your money without ever running out of money.
An easy way to calculate what this means for you - and how much money you’ll need to retire is by flipping it around and multiplying your yearly expenses by 25.
For example, if you and your family spend $40,000 per year, you’ll need to have 1,000,000 invested to not run out of money.
There must be some limit to how long you can withdraw 4% and still have money left over, right? The study that explains the 4% rule is called the Trinity Study, and it looked at how much money you’d need to retire for every year between 1926 and 2009.
The study found that if you invest 50% of your money in stocks and 50% of your money in bonds, withdrawing 4% of your money will be fine for 25 years, 100% of the time. Doing it for 30 years - you’ll still have money left over 96% of the time. only if you retired in a very unlucky year and never made any money after retirement including pensions or social security - the 4% rule didn’t work.
So to make sure we’re all clear - the 4% rule isn’t 100% foolproof. But those odds are pretty darn good - and even while I hope to retire from regular work longer than 30 years - i know I’ll continue to make money doing things i love which will make sure that the 4% rule does succeed.
For those of you that want to be 100% sure your money will never run out (especially for those of you who plan to retire longer than 30 years), use the 3% rule and only withdraw 3% of your investments per year.
Let’s get back to the 4% rule and dive a little deeper.
As many of you are probably asking, why is 4% the safe number and not 10% or 2%.
Very simply, investing money will pay you dividends and increase in value at an average rate of 7% per year. On average inflation is about 3%, basically decreasing the actual value of the money you have. Combine those two numbers, and you’re a 4% - your net income will increase by 4% each year. And if you spend that 4% without going over, you’ll end the year with the same amount that you’ve started… in perpetuity.
Okay okay - i know a lot of you say this is crazy - what about the recession - you can’t predict stocks - and lots more thoughts.
But let’s look at those numbers even deeper.
Since 1900… over one hundred years ago, the average return per year has been 7% including reinvested dividends (meaning you reinvest the dividends - or the money the companies pay your for investing - into your investment).
For inflation - since 1913 - over one hundred years ago, the average yearly inflation is 3.22%
Even through the great depression, world wars, crazy years of inflation, more wars, and the great recession the average return rate has been 7% and inflation has been just over 3%
What does this tell us? It tells us that investing is more about being patient and investing early rather than trying to time the market.
Now this doesn’t mean that it can’t change. Investing is a risk. That’s why you do it and make money from it. But world war iii could happen. another even greater depression could happen. and we have to be prepared for something like that. because if you retired with 1,000,000 in 2007, assuming you’d be able to spend 4% of your net worth per year, you were in for a surprise - which might mean going back to work for a few years and waiting out the recession. hopefully, if you did that… and left your investments in the stock and bond market, you would be in good shape.
The key takeaway is that throughout the history of modern america - you’ll be fine to retire using the 4% rule. So calculate your yearly expenses… include some emergency padding… and start investing to get to that goal of 25 times your expenses.
Let me know if you have any questions or comments below! Is this crazy? Or am I onto something?
Again, thank you to mr money mustache and the mad feintist for the inspiration!
Cheers,
Phil
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[@Aziz__0]

Planning retirement has never been this confusing! First SVB, then Signature bank and now First republic, these are all the signs of yet another 2008 market crash and recession 2.0, so my question is do I still save in the United States dollar, or could this be a good time to buy stocks? So I’m left wondering what 2023 has in store for us investors, I’ve been sitting on over $745K equity from a home sale and I’m not sure where to go from here,

[@sherryie2]

Everyone needs a different stream of income , unfortunately having a job doesn't mean security due to the high rate of tax , one needs to move ahead their expectation, I would recommend refraining from investing in stocks for now. Instead, it would be prudent to consider retaining a portion of your assets in gold. Alternatively, seeking advice from a financial advisor could provide valuable guidance in this matter.

[@user-3456rtu]

@@sherryie2 true, A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for license advisors and came across someone of due diligence, helped a lot to grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to approx. $850k so far.

[@c.t.u.o]

@@user-3456rtu Do you mind sharing info on the adviser who assisted you? been saving for pension since age 18 - company scheme. along the way I hit higher tax, so I added to my company pension with a SIPP (tax benefits) I'm 46 now and would love to grow my finance more aggressively, there are a few cars I still wish to drive, a few mega holidays, etc.

[@user-3456rtu]

@@c.t.u.o credits to NICOLE DESIREE SIMON, one of the best portfolio manager;s out there. she;s well known, you should look her up

[@c.t.u.o]

@@user-3456rtu Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her

[@Riggsnic_co]

I believe the retirement crisis will get even worse. Many struggle to save due to low wages, rising prices, and exorbitant rents. With homeownership becoming unattainable for middle-class Americans, they may not have a home to rely on for retirement either.

[@Syndiewndell]

Consider buying stocks when the economy is not doing well, like during a recession. It could be a chance to buy them at a lower price and sell later when prices go up. Just keep in mind, this isn't financial advice, but sometimes it's better than keeping a lot of cash.

[@martingiavarini]

Accurate asset allocation is crucial. Some use hedging or defensive assets in their portfolio for market downturns. Seeking financial advice is vital. This approach has kept me financially secure for over five years, with a return on investment of nearly $1 million.

[@Jamessmith-12]

Mind if I ask you to recommend this particular coach you using their service?

[@martingiavarini]

Carol Vivian Constable is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..

[@Jamessmith-12]

She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search for her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.

[@DavidMiller-du9dy]

Retiring early is possible but tough, it definitely requires discipline and big sacrifices. It’s not only about saving, the huge step is boosting earning capacity. I’m glad I got into stocks and recently understood and purchased my first NFT.

[@kelvinjohnson3906]

Not everyone has their financial freedom so well sorted out, it’s ideal to get in early on some investment opportunities.

[@noelstout3056]

@Sean Roger I’m aware of Dan Raziel, how reliable has he been, and how profitable are his trades on a monthly basis ?

[@rohitmajumdar1579]

Financial freedom is about control. control over your financial present and your financial future, it all comes down to investing right.

[@AdityaWibisana]

Congrats on your now-expensive NFT 🎂

[@sunilj10]

I retired this year at 40 my childhood dream come true

[@VideoSchoolOnline]

That's awesome! Congrats! any tips?

[@vikasnarang83]

Sunil J - ya pls share ur exp.8006666130

[@trevorthenbafan2848]

Sunil J congrats

[@raviputcha]

Now Sunil J will have to invent more lies just to answer your question. What a pain! Be kind to him folks! Common, who in the hell 'dreams' of retiring? that too in one's childhood, total bullshit!

[@sunilj10]

I did not think it important to respond to your note, since I do not have to prove to anyone. However, I decided to honour the person who is encouraging others. Just because you think it is not possible, does not mean it does not exist or is not true. The biggest part of financial freedom is to stop being greedy - drawing the line, apart from having to create your stand alone cash flow. Btw, all of it is not given to me through generations. I have built my own independent flows, thanks to the almighty for the dream and the opportunities, I got and capitalized on.

[@ticnatz]

I retired this year at 58. I won't even tap into my holdings. I will be reinvesting still, for quite a few years. I live in Europe, get an American pension, and will work just a little bit. I firmly believe in living below your means.....if you can

[@aliesneo]

Fleck can you share where in Europe you live and if you own a home there. if so, how did you acquire the house?

[@nykidxxx]

Do your research, there's no way you can copy exactly what he does.

[@Lexethan2011]

Here's something to strive for. Well done!

[@aliesneo]

i am not interesting in recreating what Fleck has achieved, i simply want to know how he went about purchasing property in Europe and if he used financing from an american institution.

[@slamdunk715]

He will be living in Europe, but siphoning cash from the USA at the same time?

[@Jvuski]

I retired this year at age 11

[@furtim1]

I retired retroactively from the creation of the universe until about 20 years ago.

[@ciacono1]

J Vuski llp

[@simontalbot2507]

LOL

[@bevans76]

Scam

[@ahadulislam8891]

J Vuski me too

[@stangtrax]

ATTENTION: At 1:07 it says 50/50 stocks and bonds. At 3:07 it is a chart of 100% stocks. Overall I agree and like the video. Each do what you want, but 100% stocks investment, with dollar cost average and a drip for me. I studied the stock chart also going back the 100 years even the great depression. One day I need to make a video of explaining how simple investing really is vs risk and reward. Man I would have liked to know what I know now 20 years ago.

[@ariefraiser140]

The stock chart isn't saying that you should be 100% into stocks.

[@coasteyscoasteys]

it's good to plan for the future but don't get addicted to it, at least live a little today. anything can happen, health issue, death,

[@LivingOverseasTV]

Very good information. I have been living on a budget of $1,200 per month including health care and traveling the world. I think this may be a good option for some. Ecuador and Thailand are both very affordable and my lifestyle, for the most part, is greatly improved. I would love to team up with someone to create some workshops to bring this information to those that are interested.

[@haatib42]

Living Overseas TV sounds interesting, should start a blog

[@MJAli89]

1) Become debt free 2) Have a years salary saved for emergencies 3) Now work when ever you want to.

[@taxol2]

There is simpler way if you can afford it. Buy properties where the population is still growing, rent them as income. Keep renting them and hold these properties until you decide to quit being landlord. Maybe at age 75 or so. Sell the properties, invest the proceed in blue chips dividend stocks or bonds. Inflation will incrase your property value till the time you decide to sell them Dividends and bonds coupon will support your monthly living cost.

[@andypagakis]

Good advice, but most people dont really consider real estate investing, If you do it right you can 10% returns and increase in value too like you said

[@taxol2]

Andy Pagakis I agree, that is why I said “if you can afford it” and definately not for everyone. Your 1st investment property (which is usually your second property-since your first property is for living) will drain you! But if you keep on doing it right, after the rent income coming in from your several properties, your 4th or 5th property will become very affordable (assuming there is no huge spike or crash in property price in very short time). I am lucky that I have been able to do it. The rent will support my living cost. The capital gains accumulating until my retirement year will be the long term “timed deposit”. Reaching retirement years most of them can be sold and I’ll switch to fixed income papers like blue chip investment stocks and invt grade corp bonds for my living cost.

[@stangtrax]

LMAO I would not want to put up with tenants.

[@andypagakis]

me neither, i factored in property management in my 10%

[@taxol2]

stangtrax most of mine are nice people who maintained my houses quite well. Can always screen them before signing the lease agreement

[@ThaylorHarmor]

My motivation to retire is so I can volunteer more of my time. I can't fathom "relaxing" doing nothing.

[@VideoSchoolOnline]

True that!

[@coasteyscoasteys]

Thaylor Harmor no one ever truly retires. you have to do something in your time or you will go crazy. i see lots of old people looking after gardens in retirement and they obviously enjoy it. so why not find a job doing that in your working days

[@briannab5296]

+coasteys coasteys ... men retire, women never truly get to retire.

[@justinofboulder]

prefer the term FI (financial independence) to "retirement"........I enjoy work, and like that I can choose what projects I take on......

[@londonspade5896]

I retired at the start of this year only 7 months after conception, 60 days or so and I'll pop out ready to party.

[@andrewnewman2516]

Retired 8 years ago and I've been able to keep my finances in check through investment. i make about $24k a month from my investments in foreign exchange markets(forex). There isn't a particular amount of money needed for retirement

[@jovenelpierre2630]

the income is quite reasonable, it's always safe to earn passively

[@gagnonsmith5912]

Interesting

[@andrewnewman2516]

this past months have been the best of my life, with income coming in I don't worry much, my son is grown and has his finance rolling so I make donations to charity as I believe so much in humanity. Making the best of our my retirement days, we all live but once.

[@ericwalter4416]

I'm fully interested in learning how to trade any suggestions?

[@andrewnewman2516]

Yes Andy, i made alot of bad trades at first but coming across an expert trader helped in getting back to winning ways , my expert trader still handle my trades and he's also teaching me how to trade efficiently, i made $6k on my own last week. Having an expert made the work a lot easier for me, their experience and understanding of the market is amazing.

[@ox5090]

S&p averages just under 10% every year with reinvestment.

[@HD893]

Here is the simple rule. Set a permanent monthly withdraw on your check, which will go to an investment account. You are never allowed to touch that account unless you are dying (you are out of luck). Excuses such as I have to go on vacations or weeding or gits are not allowed (You simply don't have money, NEVER treat saving money as normal spending money). You can take it out when you retired or better leave it there for your children (assuming you educate them well). Save money early is the key especially when you are young (resist peer-pressure aka large-scale brainwash).

[@Arbmosal]

People should be aware that the 4% rule gives you only a rough estimate. You made this clear in the video but I feel you could have stretched it a bit more. 1. If I spend 25 000 yearly now, 4%-rule says I need 500 000. But if I need 15 years to get to that number Inflation will increase my yearly expenses to over 30 000 so I need around 750 000 to cover the expenses at the time I retire 2. In the trinity study (and this you should totally have mentioned) success was defined to having 1$ or more left. They don't tell us what the average or median left over money was, but what if the average left over money after 30 years was only 100$? It is easily possible to be good for 30 years but fail after 35 or something like that. So one of the most important points you made, was that you have additional income from social security and by doing paid "work". For someone who does not have this additional income the 4% rule can well be to dangerous.

[@tkdcow9911]

Far better than social insecurity.

[@VideoSchoolOnline]

+TKD COW haha yep

[@BigRed2]

Video School Online Can’t get rid of obamacare, Social security will always be there because too many “voters” depend on it

[@HeritageWealthPlanning]

Big fan of Video School Online. This video does an adequate job of discussing the 4% "rule". My only comment though is if you retired in October 2007. By March 2009, you are now taking 6.6% out of your portfolio. This is called sequence of return risk. It gets overlooked A LOT. And in reality when people are faced with it, they have a hard time staying the course. I've seen it over, and over, again. Secondly, the 4% rule was based on an era where the 10 Treasury bonds were paying twice what they are now. With bond rates as they are today, the 4% has been downward adjusted to 3.2%.

[@Brutus2834]

Thank you for explaining the 4% rule in a simple way to understand. I love personal finance!!!

[@VideoSchoolOnline]

+Conilious “Brutus” Neequaye glad you enjoyed this!

[@BRuane-pw6xq]

In the long run this works well . Trick is to adjust your withdrawals during downturns as 4 percent of a much lower portfolio should cause you to adjust your spending or add income via a 2nd job.

[@forgednotcast612]

The Median balance in a 401k at age 65 is only 126,000 dollars which under the 4% rule is $5,040 a year and $420 a month. One Million is a very small segment of American retirees.

[@Sky1]

Mama used to say, "It's just as easy to fall in love with a Rich one!".

[@thisisacrappyusername892]

Average investment rate-average inflation rate= personal networth

[@bobbytheblade2550]

4% withdrawal rate is too low for those who retire early and have the means to grow the asset way beyond that. My wife has managed growth in our investment net worth an average of 12% which is crazy good, and we both retired in our 50's. Our withdrawal rate is right at 8% which allows us to index inflation and experience some real growth though slight. And we are prepared for cutting back in hard times. This works well for us, but is everybody going to be able to grow this well in retirement? Most folk should follow a safer, less aggressive route.

[@tankyg8231]

The Norwegian Government is using this for retirees and healthcare in Norway :P

[@MyWorld-xy7gv]

Very informative.

[@maximilienbisson159]

While I think this 4% (or 3%) rule has a lot of logic, this can't be applied directly to everybody. In many countries/territories, you will have to pay taxes on the money you withdraw form your savings. The are a lot of different governemental programs and it probably is different everywhere, but, to continue with your 40000$/year expenses for a family; in order to have 40000$ cash (ready to be spent), the family will have to withdraw more (and in many places a lot more). Sure, as you said, those countries/territories would probably also have retirement plans for their retired people which would provide a certain amount of money troughout the year that you didn't take into account and that will probably counter balance a part of the taxes you'll have to pay, but probably not everything depending on your situation. Basically, I think this video is good to demonstrate that it's not so hard to calculate what you'd really need to retire. Just wanted to clarify that this 4% rule will not apply to everybody everywhere, and that it also doesn't allow for any extra expense unless you have an annual budget for ''extra'' taken into account.

[@desscanlon2206]

Maximilien Bisson XX

[@donaldlyons17]

Glad you said it and taxes were not taken out either. Why no one accounts for that makes no sense but normally they don’t.

[@DevonWayne]

So basically if you have $20k a year lifestyle and want to live the next 25+ years in that lifestyle (think: beach town) then you only need 25x your income or $500,000. Then start to wrap your head around what $500,000 is. If you do sales or commissions, and make $100 commission per sale ($1,000 item on eBay or Shopify or Amazon, take home $100 profit) then you need to make 5,000 sales. If you sell the item(s) 1x a day, it will take you over 13 years to make $500,000. If you automate and make it a business, not a one man show, let's say 3x items a day. That's Going to be over 4 years. If you automate the customer service, the item uploads, the returns, and focus only on getting quality lead items and quality control, maybe you can sell 5 items a day. 5 items a day would be 3 years. You could retire in 3 years, with eCommerce. You just need to run the numbers. That's all it is. Make 1 sale a day. Then scale it up.

[@stephonlee40]

I'm 47 and I've 6 houses at 2 countries worth 3.5 million us with an 11% mortgage and still hard working

[@argentumtaibhsear621]

I do love that you used 1900 for stock but 1913 for inflation.

[@TheShowThatSUX]

What concerns me about this logix is how things are changing: Yes 1913 to 2016 inflation = average 3.27% And yes 1913 to now = average market ROR 6.XX% But 2 problems with this model: 1) current rate to date average ROR is 5.47%, and depending how you do it weighted averages can be as low as 4.27%. 2) more recent inflation (1974 to now) averages out closer to 4.11% and no longer includes things like food and fuel so in practice is more. Those 2 numbers are far to close to one another for my liking.

[@RetireCertain]

Great video with some very good data to explain the 4% rule. I would add that the increase in your stock investment account would include not only dividends, as you mention, but also capital gains, and both would be left in the account. The magic of compounding can do a lot without much work over many years. Thanks for your thorough video.

[@rhdtv2002]

My father in law retired at 50 with 10 kids with his only wife. Sometimes it's all about luck and being cheap. He only gave the basics to the kids and wasn't a enabling parent - he bought a multi unit property because he knew no one will rent him with that many kids. That home he bought for 39k in what is called Wicker Park in Chicago. He then bought the building next to that for 69k then the next one for 99k. With each purchase of the next home he paid off the other one. He makes easily off one bldg 100k a year in rents and is 75 years old. All these properties are worth several million now. FYI- he came from Mexico in his 20s.

[@donaldlyons17]

He bought real estate and he likely selected for poor people with a little money used the law and evicted those with no cash. He was able to comply with all housing laws and used his renters money to pay for everything!!! He sold housing something almost everyone needs not something people can just choose to go without!!!! It not his fault but housing is a scam that exploits the poor worst!

[@bernardmungin5940]

I really enjoyed this post. I am planning my retirement. I really don't want to work till I am 65. I am want to do it earlier.

[@ethelbertjohn3845]

A really good video, retirement it's a crucial point in our lives many forget to plan for.

[@ping5580]

7% average over 100 years doesn't mean it'll average 7% over the 30 years during your retirement

[@Moyodsreds]

In today's world with bonds at 2% I'm not sure the 60/40 rule and 4% withdrawal still holds true? What say you? Unlikely bonds will ever return to their former glory

[@classicnut6655]

The Monte Carlo curve and 4% creates a whole new issue being that it is often not feasible to create the amount of assets to generate the amount of income needed to have full income replacement. Meaning I need to replace $100,000 a year income. But to spend like $100k in 30 years I need to make $250,000 a year due to inflation. So after social security and subtracting house, car and savings I would need need about $180,000 income to live like I live today. That means I would need to have $4.5 million in assets to generate the income needed to maintain my lifestyle. I have found that using the 2 economic powers to create my own covered asset or pension strategy allows me to generate more income guaranteed while investing less over time.

[@gspeku9173]

at 2:45 its not 7%-3%, its 1.07*0.97=1.0379, so 3.79% thats how math works ;)

[@DLBcovers]

I hope to someday retire before I was born.

[@mattkennedy3474]

I was born retired ::drops mic::

[@badass6656]

Shares and Bonds provide cash flow. If you spend less than the cash flow you can spend he income indefinitely. The 7% average return rate occurred when as you mentioned inflation was higher than now. Economic growth was also higher than it is currently. As you mentioned 3%, cash flow will be nearer this figure for most people.

[@omasavior1377]

Can't wait until I retire at age 17 #blessed

[@waltheisenberg5620]

The flaw in 0:36 is many have the assets in taxable investments so technically speaking, if you need $40,000 a year net to live on, you'll need something more closer to $1.2 million.

[@lylecosmopolite]

In April of next year, the current business cycle expansion will become the second longest in American history (the record begins in 1854). Also, P/E for the USA market is now 28. House prices along the Atlantic and Pacific coasts are back to where they were in 2006. A recession and asset price crash is coming. But a house price crash makes buying a starter house much more affordable for young adults (who are totally screwed at today's prices). For most of us, a decline in the price of one's house is only a paper loss. Stock prices will decline 30-60%, but should recover within 5 years at most. The questions are: what happens if you lose your job? If your dividend income declines 30% and is the same 5 years from now as it is today? Some people comment below that progress in robotics threatens a lot of jobs requiring little human capital. I agree that first world countries face a future in which 15% of the pre-retirement population will have to be supported by the public purse.

[@prieten49]

This implies that when you die, you will not have dived into your capital, only spent the interest/dividends. Those who want to spend their capital down before they die might be able to spend 5% a year.

[@keatonmorgan295]

Good video, am grateful I made an early move toward retirement that has benefited me so much lately.

[@craig7948]

The rule of 4% has been corrected recently because of low returns in fixed income classes to closer to 3%. It should also be noted that this simplistic style of retirement income planning puts retires at risk of sequence of returns. Pulling out income needs from retirement accounts in down markets will impact your ability to not outlive your money.

[@VideoSchoolOnline]

+Craig Armstrong definitely! gotta make sure you pay attention to down years... and you might need to do some side work or go back to a full time job for a bit to make sure you're still living by the 4% rule (or the 3% rule which is even better!)

[@Kevin_Roche]

I think it's funny that I find so many investors assuming an average rate of return per year over their lifetimes. Prior history does not prove what the next 20 years will bring unless you view the market from a cyclical perspective. Most investors these days think that because a fund can perform say 6% on average, that it always will. Usually to get the best returns, you have to invest in what is commonly viewed as unpopular. The things turned aside today can be treasures tomorrow. It happened with Bitcoin, it happened with Apple, and eventually it will happen with *fill in the blank*. Getting the best investing returns is all about timing and understanding the world you live in.

[@joeskis]

Wow that was a really good ad, I thought it was the video. But then I noticed the skip ad button. Pretty effective but I wised up just in time before the pitch.

[@GigasGirus]

I'll come back and watch this video once I reach 20 I'm a little too young for this

[@antonettego2]

The earlier you start the higher your return will be

[@kieranmaude4259]

ANTONETTE GO nmpp

[@guthannight]

your not to young man get started

[@MistrDude]

Good plan. Your current executable retirement plan is to get educated to pull in a high future income.

[@GKS225]

I'm 20 and I regret not starting early, though be advised you should learn more before you make any major decision

[@kl8922]

Average 7% for yearly returns for the average joe, and look what happened to NVDA stock from 2015 to now. It's up 800%. All the other tech stocks are up over 50% in 2 years.

[@MikeRosehart]

Great video, I enjoyed it, I was thinking of making a very similar video explaining how I retired at 24/25 with the 4% SWR

[@HP97user]

I prefer the 2% investment strategy; it allows for the market to lose half its value without you ever changing your spend rate (not entirely needed, but nice for extra security if you are skeptical of the overvalued market)

[@M.G.R...]

Investing is one of the best way to retire

[@domjervis]

I prefer your 3% Rule. For me, that's just over $1,500/month...MORE than enough.

[@norbertchong3920]

WHO SPENDS $40,000 A YEAR? I spend more like $25,000.

[@blackworldtraveler3711]

Norbert Chong Do you mean total expenses or just spending money? My total living expenses is $1500/mo. and currently living on $1k biweekly on a $160k/yr salary. But I have no debt and save/invest quite a bit. So I can actually live on my $2600/mo. pension when I retire next year, But I have the option of extra income of $2k-$6k/mo. tax free from Roth and $1k-$2k from pretax IRA. An emergency fund big enough to pay my total living expenses for the next 15 years. And other taxable savings,investments,passive income for early retirement until I reach 65 years later. So with my total living expenses taken care of an additional $25k/yr. just for spending is more than enough for me.

[@JohnSmith-db1qi]

To keep with the idea of living below my means next month I'm moving into a smaller box on a busier street. I hope the increased traffic noise will take my mind off my smaller quarters.

[@ronriesinger7755]

Very helpful. Best explanation I have heard of the 4% rule.

[@ethanwormell4812]

I was excited to watch this video and then I heard the voice of a 20 year old....How about someone who is retired? Can we get some experience behind these hopes and dreams please?

[@VideoSchoolOnline]

+Ethan Wormell I would check out MrMoneyMustache.com, he's what I've based a lot of my knowledge on.

[@texas70.32]

Simple and clear. Good work.

[@larcomj]

interesting, although a little misleading. If your 35 now and your current expenses are $40,000/yr then in 30 years your expenses will be $97,090/yr assuming 3% rate of inflation. That means you will need to save $2,427,300, a little bit more than the "$1,000,000" stated. However, sounds like a solid concept.

[@mar504]

He addressed this, stock gains on average are 7% which will offset 4% withdrawl and 3% inflation.

[@Zorn101]

Retired in an unlucky year? What a crock! Here is some good finical advice "Don't retire in an unlucky year!" How do you tell if it is an unlucky year? Sacrifice a chicken and roll the dice!

[@blackworldtraveler3711]

I have a floor to my retirement so I can take any year.

[@jobe8764]

An unlucky year would have been 2008 crash. Many elderly stockholders panicked and sold their stocks thinking they were going to zero. Others could not retire and had to keep working after the 2008 crash.

[@mar504]

If you are planning to retire in the near future you can't be heavily invested in stocks for this exact reason. Or if you are, have an emergency fund to cope with a down market for a few years, stay the course.

[@pjenkinsa]

Great video - clear and simple

[@furyofbongos]

For 4% multiply expenses by 25, for 3% multiply expenses by 33.

[@twaters57]

This may be true if you are a big spender. If you don't have any huge outstanding debt, most people can get by on their pension and social security. If you get $2,500 from social security and then another $2,500 from pension or 401, that is the equal to about the same as $75,000 a year normal salary since most states don't tax social security and you don't have to pay 15% payroll taxes. Plus you won't be paying into a pension or 401 either. Don't believe you have to have million dollars in the bank to retire.

[@guyh.4553]

Nice accounting. Helped me out a lot. Made perfect sense once you explained it.

[@georgealex19]

Am I the only person in the world who doesn't actually want to retire? Nor does it seem particularly tempting?

[@AtheistEve]

I retired (by accident) at age 50.

[@jhonmacraimbanajokora8657]

The dividends and excess cash from the yearly expense being re-invested was not considered !!!

[@tillgaller1164]

Sorry, so should I take 4% of my monthly income back or should I invest it? What to invest in?

[@MichaelGGarry]

No, the 4% is the money you would have to live on *after* retirement. You need to save/invest as much as you can until then....

[@coltukkor]

So the idea is you live off interest and after 25 years of retirement you still have the same principal going in?

[@shaunrosenberg4568]

I'm hoping to use the "living off dividends" rule. I'll earn 2% or so dividends and get a 7% raise each year.

[@ChrisMFlorida]

Great video.. and you make it easy for everyone to understand. Thanks!

[@askvanita]

Nice video and good advice. Thank you for making it.

[@VideoSchoolOnline]

+Stanley George thank you!

[@michaelreid2171]

Seems insane. If you worked 40 uninterrupted years saving 25% of your gross with 8% returns you won't even have 30 times your salary after inflation. And That's a lot of saving without considering sackings, illnesses, divorce, swindles or any other reversals!!!

[@koketsomoeng]

Great video 👍🏾

[@lm5585sysmatrix]

One confusing part... Video states that the market has returned 7% on average when dividends are reinvested. However, in retirement, dividends become the income and don't get reinvested. So how do we keep the 7% average when the dividends are no longer reinvested?

[@DavidGarcia-kw4sf]

You have to have a pretty low set of expectations to assume you will never make more than 4% a year on your investments. Even the S&P, not a super exciting standard, has earned 14.5% this year alone.

[@ABC-ip6jq]

You probably know that wasnt a normal year. 7% and 3% interest is a ”safe-ish” number. You want to minimize the risk that you have to go back to work with no work experience the last 10 years

[@DLBcovers]

I retired this year as a zygote.

[@kickinkanga7026]

My rule is spend as less as possible in every aspect of my life... Don't buy crap you don't need to try and impress people you don't know...

[@theevermind]

The explanation of why the 4% rule works is incorrect. It is NOT because 7% (average return) minus 3% (average inflation) = 4%. The variations in return, particularly down years, make too much of an impact in returns for a derivation that only uses averages to work. Rather, note that the study is about running out of money. While intuition using averages suggests the money will last forever, evidence shows it doesn't. The 4% rule works for a finite time period, and the longer the time period, the less often it works. In fact, if you run your own calculations but assume you have to withdraw your living expenses _before_ they earn a return, you will find that the 4% rule actually causes you to run out of money in ~73 yr. That's longer than people's retirements, but note that it is not a perpetual, 'to infinity' strategy.

[@NoRegertsHere]

It’s also why lots of FIRE people will find themselves falling behind. I’m sure they’ll adapt and be innovative, but listening to many on podcasts lately and they don’t seem to get this.

[@Zorn101]

Your inflation numbers are wrong. When you account for harmonic adjustment , substitution and the fact that food and fuel are not included in the real rate of inflation.

[@ementormike]

Zorn101 so, what do you think the historical average rate of inflation is then, if you think these items you mentioned should go into the calculation? Do you know why the items you mentioned, if they are actually excluded, are excluded by those that calculate the inflation rate?

[@pssst3]

Historical rate of inflation? Inflation is dynamic and now varies so erratically that moving average over decade moves erratically. The government's published figures have as much relationship to reality as the unemployment rate. The total value of the monetary supply is meaningless when the government can print as much as it wants, whenever it wants and can charge whatever it wants to loan it to banks. The true rate of inflation is determined average desire for consumption, and actual productivity, not monetary supply, GDP or any other econometric. The fake one looks at the cost of a standardized selection of things, year after year. It doesn't matter what a 1970's standard basket of goods costs if everyone now wants to fill theirs with champagne and caviar, smartphones and 4K 40" TV sets, and "earns"their livings sitting on both fictitious. their butts clicking computer mice. The "value" of goods produced and the dollars spent to produce them are fictitious numbers with no objective reality, not even in hours of "labor".

[@belingonza318]

i retire at end of a year! 67yrs.old . Had a party till i was 47 then started working

[@spd3ictpro]

You started quite late, but glad you still able to make it.

[@belingonza318]

spd3ictpro : Thank you! I really did if i party all those years. Didn't want to work all my life retire and die!

[@aku7598]

If 1 million intial amount then for 4 percent percent will earn your 40,000 Live frugally 3,300 monthly and you saving will never be depleted.

[@tbnewhomes]

Great video

[@jburkie01]

Definitely need to get busy saving this shows how behind I am at 50, Uggh. Big challenge with high mid age expenses...

[@sreemukhkovuri4789]

Not bad. But this doesn't apply to my country (India) or any other developing economy where inflation rates are far higher. Then again, markets are more volatile and stocks might give much better returns than expected due to growing economy overall.

[@azizanaziz3376]

You did the best and most concise explanation of the 4% rule. Great video

[@CoachDomCosta]

Thank you so very much for sharing this!

[@RunForMillionaire]

Cool video!

[@guilhermehx7159]

Very good EBINER

[@ffrebello]

Very informative. Thanks

[@sattharabdul5576]

ಫ್ಲಾಯ್ನ್ ರೆಬೆಲ್ಲೊ Hi bro. .. it won't work in our country... since our inflation rate is @ 8% :(

[@danidimitrov3826]

Nice video as always! ;)

[@VideoSchoolOnline]

+SlenderBird | 2D Design thank you!

[@VikingZag]

Why plan for perpetuity? I'm gonna die someday, so why not plan to let the principal come down a little over time? Based on family history, chances are I'll live to mid eighties, so if I plan to run out of money 20 years after that for a 2-decade cushion, I can take out a bit more than 4% without any real worry.

[@Kcducttaper1]

I'd like to think that, if you place your investments wisely, you can get closer to 8-10, maybe even 12% interest. A bit hard to do in an often limited 401k plan though.

[@ginsan8198]

It doesn't answer how long the money would last, tho. Where is the assumption for how long we could live? 50 years? 70 years? A hundred years? Let's say I anticipate living for 70 more years, how much money would I need to have right now in order to live for that long? Does the 4% rule apply to this? What does the number 25 in your calculation mean? What is this?

[@DavidEVogel]

The principle is never touched. Doesn't matter how long you live.

[@eleveneleven572]

You can even go further if you're older. As you age you spend less...travel, car, entertainment etc. Plus you can draw on capital....because no on lives forever.. Do the sums.

[@TripSeibold]

Really liked your video. Great explanation and details on inflation. I'm personally planning on a 3.3% (30x) rule for myself. Great job putting this together and giving a shout out to MMM and Mad Fientist. How close are you to FI?

[@justinofboulder]

Thanks for the positive comment! My partner just "retired" this year (she's 43), and seeing her do it has me excited to get there.....even though I still enjoy my work. I have about 5-7 years to go according to my figures. Started following MMM about 6 years ago, and while I never felt I could take the concept to the "extremes" he has, slowly I have been changing my ways and building wealth in the process.....

[@pwk22]

I question whether the exploding deficit, which will consume a greater and greater percentage of the budget, even ignoring today's low, low interest rates, will render the historic assumptions of 7% compounded yearly growth and 3% inflation overly optimistic.

[@NoRegertsHere]

Government debt load isn’t the same as private debt load and budgeting around a dinner table. Private debt load is the issue, not government debt