What No Deal Brexit Will Do To The Economy - Brexit Explained

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Johnson's Brexit Plan Explained: • Boris Johnson's Brexit...
For a long time, there's been talk about the economic impact of Brexit. However, things have really kicked into high gear in the last few days. The Chancellor has announced that he will step down from his position if Johnson becomes the new Prime Minister due to his stance on No Deal. The OBR has also published a report showing the pretty devastating consequences of the UK leaving without a deal. We discuss all the drama and whether or not you can really trust these predictions.
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[@matheusGMN]

I study economics, and I remember in the introductory part of my first book when I entered university the author of the book wrote that, if you were to put 10 economists in a room and say to them to find a solution to a problem, you'd have 20 solutions. Because thanks to how relative things can be in economics even the most wild ideas can be valid ones. Now, if you have a bunch of different economists, and the majority says things are going to go downhill... well, you can't say you weren't aware of what was going to hit you, because if a group of people that can never agree managed to agree in this, it's because it's definitely a stupid idea

[@matheusGMN]

@A Id spell theory?

[@paulobrien6919]

So when Nobel prize winning economists write to the newspapers and say before the referendum it was wrong to leave. People should have respected their expertise.

[@d0tl456]

@@paulobrien6919 You clearly dont understand the nobel prize. First, officially there isnt even an nobel prize for economics. Second, scientist are awarded a nobel if they accomplished something in their very specific field. If you are awarded a nobel prize you are only a world leading export about that 1 specific area. I reckon no one ever earned a nobel prize for the consequenses of a possible Brexit, so as Matheus said, every economist will have its own opinion. This whole video is again so biased again. You claim its neutral by using a government rapport which is negative towards Brexit. There are also very good economists with very decent rapport who say the exact opposite. All in all, its a guessing game, nothing like this happened, so its playing roulette. Is gamlbing a good strategy, no. Is staying in an undemocratic EU which is on the brink of falling due to a new banking crisis (look up the growth numbes for Italty, Greece, France, then look up the loans given to those countries by Germany, and then look up what fractional banking is, you will start to take brexit into perspective) a good option and isnt that also gambling? Yes. To me, going out of the EU is just as bad as staying in with both having lots of possible if... scenarios, but i mostly think its the bias against doing something new which scares most people of Brexit. We all learn on school we cant do anything without the EU, that we are helpless. In a way, even though Brexit might hurt a lot, that project fear is the same rhetoric Trump uses most of the people here hate.

[@paulobrien6919]

@@d0tl456 Yes there's a prize for economic science. Yes a number of these winners wrote to the leading newspapers to say in their option it was economically wrong to leave the custom unions beneficiary arrangements. You seem to be unable to distinguish between fact and faith.

[@MrBizteck]

@mininmalta 123 shusshhh! JRM is looking for office space in Dublin .... a sure sign of fait in the UK.

[@Grofvolkoren]

So far season 2 has been a bit stale. Bit season 3 promises to be spectacular.

[@VME-Brad]

This should have ended with Season 1, the writers are really going for ridiculous ideas just to keep it going.

[@DirtyRobot]

Yea, refund please! I was told there would be dragons, epic battles and fantastic plot twists. All we got so far was a peasants revolt, knife crime, and a bleached version of Shrek.

[@TheCimbrianBull]

@@DirtyRobot "bleached version of Shrek" LMFAO! 😂 🤣 😅

[@evilotto9200]

Series 2 has felt like a lot of table setting. Expecting Johnson to go full Palpatine for the finale.

[@showcase-me]

Lol!😂

[@petermillar24]

If the UK does not pay the £39 billion separation bill to the EU, would Scotland use that as a precedent for not paying any separation bill to the UK?

[@roadrunner6224]

Peter Millar would be funny to see Johnson throw a fit over it

[@piotrfelix]

Only if it would organize strong enough army.

[@qyuburt2796]

Absolutely.

[@roadrunner6224]

Sinjoro Spektisto i assume the current army is the army of the UK and not England, therefore Scotland could claim a significant amount of military assets from the British armed forces

[@piotrfelix]

@@roadrunner6224 To be honest I doubt that Scotland would take a noticeable part of the Royal Military. On the other hand Ireland didn't need a huge army to get its independence.

[@jason_samosa]

You should explain in more detail what £30-£90 billion means to people’s every day lives

[@AhmadAbuKhaleel-d8s]

just 1 billion can clear out the pacific garbage patch. just 1. 30-90 can do alot

[@Hewpie]

UK population = 66,000,000. £30 billion = £454, and £90 billion = £1363 per head of UK population per annum. Simples!

[@dmcatherall1]

We all know what happens in a recession under Tory government more of what's been happening for the last decade the poor, disabled people and working class people take the hit including jobs lost and more cuts on peoples vital welfare benefits more people living on streets and more food bank use put more strain on them and innocent people's lives are lost and taking another slice of funding off vital public services and NHS and local resources and more crime.

[@chinchenping]

@@Hewpie except divided wildly unevenly

[@matthewo5572]

Hewpie yeah, it’s big talk with a hollow shell

[@Elkott]

Tories have really screwed this country

[@matthewo5572]

Larry but at least they aren’t communist

[@Elneco1]

People still going to find a way to blame labour - that other guy = a clear example of it's easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism

[@danielwebb8402]

Erm but it was the whole UK which democratically voted to leave. If was a torry issue just used to lance their Euro sceptic bubble, then the leave vote would have been

[@Elkott]

@@danielwebb8402 poor leadership led us to this state, if May hadn't arrogantly called for a General Election early they would have had the seats necessary to get her deal through, I'm lucky in Scotland we may end up back in the EU, the rest of the UK isn't that lucky unfortunately

[@matthewo5572]

Larry except for the fact that all four cases of a deal being put forward gave awful conditions to the benefit of the EU

[@alex-sv8ru]

It's very hard to be a British news channel and talk about brexit. if you point out the facts, you are labeled a fake news peddler or a fear monger.

[@thomasroussel6897]

Sadly that seems to be the reality of all quality news outlets around the western world... Reading comments is quite depressing; whether it be the English BBC, the American NYT, the French LeMonde, or the Canadian CBC/Radio-Canada, they all face the same baseless accusations from hate filled right-wingers who buy into politically and economically motivated inflammatory populist propaganda

[@jont39]

This isn't fake news but it is unbelievably bias, one sided information is bias information and if you can't see that it's one sided I think you need to look at your producers and their dismal attempts to be unbiased. You looked at one organisation and based your information on it as though there are no opposing organisations who refute the information bit you don't even bother to look.

[@thomasroussel6897]

@live let liv One sided means very little these days because all over the world the “right wing” has gone off the rails; sure both the left and the right have moved further on their respective side, but the polarization seen on the right is highly different and problematic because of the way they treat facts and science. The reason why this new right hates the MSM is because right wing narrative on anything from immigration to climate change is completely disconnected from reality. The MSM isn’t perfect but it has remained profoundly committed to fact based reporting.... And so of course the NYT and the BBC seem biased against the right, because fact checking has to be at the core of any good media, and that directly the right wing collides with modern right wing propaganda.

[@gertscheper9653]

@@jont39 show the oposing material.

[@QXDme]

@@jont39 ??? The video actually looks at several reports, and mentions that there's one with a positive Brexit prediction (though many more that are negative). Also, one sided information isn't inherantly biased. To say that the earth is round and ignore "Flat-earthers" isn't biased, it's just reasonable and based on evidence. I'm not saying that's the case w.r.t. Brexit economics predictions, but sometimes one side of the debate is so flimsy it doesn't warrent the same level of notice as the other.

[@LightAnkou]

*Britain* : I'm leaving!! *Me* : Ok, go away *Britain* I said i'm leaving!!!! *Me* Yeah i heard *Britain* I'm leaving! *Me* OK GET THE F*** OUT!!!!

[@matthewo5572]

Probably because there’s some anti-democrats inside Britain that want immigrants to keep serving them “coffee and pret” at cheap prices

[@sambland3903]

We know you have gigantic issues elsewhere. Shame you'll lose one of your biggest fundraisers.

[@kizwiz6]

@@matthewo5572 Except for the fact that non-EU immigration has always been higher than EU migration and this is expected to rise after Brexit (already happening now). So voting Brexit because of immigration is a dumb move.

[@kizwiz6]

@@sambland3903 and you'll lose access to the biggest trading bloc in the world. Potentially see the succession of the UK afterwards too when Scotland decides they've had enough of England's bs.

[@matthewo5572]

Kieran E I think you’re failing to consider that we will soon have full control of our borders, sure, it may increase, but that will be due to the government itself, likely to be one that doesn’t value its own people over the rest of the world

[@butterflysrage]

And this is pretty much exactly why I've turned down every potential job offer I've seen in the UK. The result of no-deal is simply too chaotic for me to accept an offer. I'm sure I'm not the only one either, it must be very hard to attract skilled talent to the UK theses days

[@inquaanate2393]

butterflysrage we already have enough talent here, unemployment is at record low and wages are rising faster than expected because when hundreds of thousands of people leave, the employers have to pay more to keep the workers they have. The margins of the business will decrease but the workers will be richer, which do you care about? Margins or pay? Immigration only helps margins and hinders wages of everyone already here.

[@thebeststooge]

@Inqu'aanate Precisely.

[@321womble]

@@inquaanate2393 This is very interesting, can you cite where/who says that wages are rising faster? I'd like to see the figures across demographics, like entry level wages, blue collar wages etc. Thanks

[@butterflysrage]

I'm not talking about flipping burgers. You can have very low unemployment and everyone still making low wages. And no, there is not enough talent in the UK, else I wouldn't be getting recruiters sending me emails every other week. As you said, hundreds of thousands of people are leaving, those people are more likely to be well off, internationally mobile, skilled workers... the kinds of people who are paid well to keep companies running. And, you are right about the salaries too, the numbers I've seen have been going up and up... because employers are getting more desperate for skilled workers. If you had enough, as you claim, salaries would be flat.

[@inquaanate2393]

The4thDRO I think that the shift from employers selling jobs to employees selling labour will result in a healthy redistribution of wealth rather than bankruptcy, only the greediest bosses will drives their companies into the ground before changing hiring practice. But that is my opinion.

[@BatteredWalrus]

the OBR are a non pratisan independent oversight organisation, who had the most accurate predictions of what would happen post the Brexit vote so they are trustworthy

[@iwiffitthitotonacc4673]

I mean, anyone could predict that it'd fuck over the British economy. If you have just the basic knowledge of commerce and the politics surrounding it, it'd be obvious.

[@BatteredWalrus]

@@iwiffitthitotonacc4673 aye but to avoid the backfire principle you need to help people naturally come to that conclusion, so when a pretty non Biased sources comes it may help some hardcore brexiteers it was a bad idea

[@petejohnson1724]

they also have a financial stake in staying in the eu where a lot of there work comes from .so no they are not totally trust worthy

[@biocapsule7311]

And this is just the predictions where flow of goods isn't majorly disrupted and therefore also exclude a lot of different cascading effect.

[@biocapsule7311]

@@petejohnson1724 People can keep accusing anyone giving bad new as having a stake in staying in the EU but it's about math, practically every model that involve actual calculations of the multitude of scenarios show Brexit to be bad (and it's always model conservatively, which means they are always overly restrain in thinking negatively)... the only people saying it's a good thing either didn't base it on any real data or they are purely talking about their own personal investment. They are even promising tax cuts with money that isn't there, on top of any Brexit requirement. Personally I don't even think the UK have that level of borrowing power.

[@DarkKitarist]

It's awful that politicians are only now seeing the gravity of what a no deal brexit will do...

[@konigstiger3252]

DarkKitarist Too bad that ship has sailed and the people have chose to leave

[@livefreeordie42]

As much as i want this mess to be over so you guys dont suffer too much, i find it hilarious that so many brits still dont get why brexit was such a bad idea. On the other hand it served as a wake up call to reform the E.U., so i guess we should also thank you.

[@arrgghh1555]

What do you mean 'just now'? They knew before the referendum took place. It was never meant to win, they just underestimated the stupidity of the UK public.

[@matthewo5572]

Arrgghh More educated doesn’t mean better educated

[@nick5661]

Well its the leavers fault and when they are worse off they will only have themselves to blame.

[@chrisphillips1324]

Its not like I can tear my hair out. Its already gone!

[@DavidKTasso]

Last recession made the rich richer and the poor poorer, so from a ruling class perspective, the question becomes 'where can I buy one of these recessions? Hard Brexit you say? Ok, then'

[@moosesandmeese969]

It's never been in the wealthy's interest to improve the economy, only grow their own wealth and secure what they already have.

[@happychappy7115]

Boris Johnson decries OBR report with: "Rubbish in, Rubbish out" Surely an epiphet for his entire career.

[@michaeladkins6]

His entire Leave campaign was rubbish in, rubbish out. Your Prime Liar.

[@aneesshaik5556]

This is A grade entertainment! Thank you brexit, I can’t wait for October!! I’m done with trying to explain what a disaster brexit itself forget a no deal brexit is gonna be. After the EU elections where the turnout was a pathetic Omer and Nigel got elected, I’m sorry I’ve lost sympathy for the UK. Now I’m rooting for a hardest form of brexit and waiting for Duncan smith, mark froncios etc etc be get hunted down by people who lost everything.

[@robsengahay5614]

I left the UK in 2015 before this shitshow got under way. For a long time I hoped that common-sense would prevail but the lunatics have gradually gained the ascendency and drifted further into insanity at the same time. Sad for the old country but only the hardest of hard Brexits will lance this particular boil. May be better for the country to slide into a deep and long lasting recession rather than continue a slow painful decline.

[@botany500kojak]

@@robsengahay5614 I left in 2000 and will return as Brexit will offer great opportunities. I have a few multi-millionaire business friends in the far-east that want to invest into the UK when we leave.

[@tfive24]

As an American, I was gobsmacked that there were expats that voted to leave the EU.

[@robsengahay5614]

Botany 500 Invest in what?

[@aneesshaik5556]

Botany 500 please shed some light onto what is it that you and your friends what to invest into?? And who are these friends that want to jeopardise their money after a predicted 10% drop in sterling? Honestly the whole of UK has spent the past 3 years looking for a single upshot to brexit, and couldn’t find ANY. If you have a genuine one, please share

[@maxharbig1167]

A no deal will hit the UK harder than it will hit the EU on average but it will hit some EU members harder than others and so in any future negotiations between the UK aqnd the EU which, after all, is its biggest market the acrimony created could weigh heavily. Remember in the "undemocractic" EU each individual member state, as well as about 10 autonomous regions, have a veto. If Wallonia could block CETA for several months until its doubts were dispelled imagine what a spoke several angry countries could put in the wheel of a UK/EU trade agreement negotiation.

[@jerreu7136]

Especially if the UK doesn't pay up with it's payments it previously committed to.

[@felixleidinger1670]

@@jerreu7136 When f.e. southern spanish towns swarmed with british pensioners suddenly dont receive the ten year EU infrastructure fund they partly counted on for their budget and long term builiding projects for ten years to come I would imagine the atmosphere getting a bit... toxic. The money will be shuffled from somewhere but that somewhere will be cuts in social programs or higher taxes. Until now it only has been insults from the UK, not injury.

[@danielwebb8402]

True. The Boris argument "Europe exports more to us than vice versa" is true but fails to note you divide the EU "loss" over 27 countries. So say costs us £2 but EU £3, but that 3 is a max of 0.5 for any one country. But was interesting to hear the Irish deputy PM over past week say no deal will cost UK 2% GDP but Ireland 4%.

[@felixzahner495]

Loose-Loose solution preferable?

[@danielwebb8402]

@@felixzahner495 than current arrangement? Yes. We have decided we don't want to be a member of the club. We were clearly told pre the vote would be an economic lose. But some / majority decided even armed with that information we want to leave. That all the other aspects (social and cultural) were more negative. Whereas the other EU countries think these other aspects are a plus. Not even neutral but a plus. The UK don't. If you'd said pre the vote "we can guarantee neutral economic impact. You are voting purely on non financial issues" you'd have got north of 60% leave. We don't want to be a member of the club.

[@tomlangford1999]

It's going to be really funny/depressing watching brexiteers desperately trying to blame everything on the EU after we leave with no deal and everything goes tits up

[@jjg19631]

Every time I see or read what is happening in the US, where people are voting against their own interest in favour of the ultra-rich, I think “man am I glad that education and the media is way better informing us over here on our side of the pond and makes us make better decisions”. Enter Brexit...😏

[@philipberthiaume2314]

I can go into some detail as my academic background is related to your question, but one of the concerns is economic disparity. The US and UK have the widest split between rich and poor in the first world. The arguments between brexit and support for trump are remarkably similar.

[@jjg19631]

Philip Berthiaume I read that the hard Brexiteers want to turn the UK into a Singapore-style taxhaven. Woud that make inequality worse of make it better for the whole nation?

[@matthewo5572]

Philip Berthiaume however, income inequality does not consider the fact that our lowest earners still earn bucketloads more than other countries lowest, therefore your argument is only standing on the strength of twigs unfortunately

[@philipberthiaume2314]

@@jjg19631 There is no evidence to suggest that haven like activity would raise an overall standard benefit to all sectors. Havens by definition means that wealth reallocation cannot occur through involuntary means, ie taxation. It is hoped therefor that wealth allocation happens voluntarily with enough capital remaining in the local system to provide sustainable earnings over time. The major issue here is that benefiting sectors are narrow and focussed and this will mostly not work towards reducing disparity. I can write a lot more and I can try to answer more questions tho.

[@jjg19631]

Philip Berthiaume So kinda trickle down?

[@grendelum]

Soon after the Brexit vote the Irish company I work with had to move away from U.K. suppliers... the risk to our business is too great. I followed up and yes, one of the engineering firms we used closed down because all of their non-UK customers took their business elsewhere, dozens of jobs lost. This is the small-scale business loss y’all have already faced, actually go ahead with Brexit and it’ll be worse than anything you’ve imagined.

[@grendelum]

I didn’t even touch on the vulture capitalists waiting in the wings to buy up industries for pennies on the dollar...

[@Lilitha11]

Those stats for the mild outcome are pretty troubling, though even worse is the fact that other reports are saying it could easily be two or three times worse than that.

[@niallhiggins2342]

Lilitha11 And other stats say the UK gains £80bn

[@tidbit1877]

Many economists: -30 to -90 billion. One economist: +80 billion. Comment Section: "Well, some say it'll be bad, some say it'll be good!? I guess we'll never know." Me: We really need to improve the education system, everywhere!

[@altrag]

@@tidbit1877 > I guess we'll never know. Well that part at least is entirely untrue. We'll know within a year or less. Hell maybe even on Nov.1 if the markets all decide to panic right away.

[@tidbit1877]

@altrag My point was just that most people here 2 opinions and they don't know how to weigh them; so even though one opinion is espoused by many, many economists and the other opinion is only espoused by one economist, people still think both opinions have equal weight. The same thing happens when discussing global warming and some dumb denier says that not all scientists agree, when like 99% do agree.

[@TorianTammas]

@@niallhiggins2342 Rees Moggg claimed the UK economy would get a trillion. We can sing and wait for the unicorns.

[@domc3040]

Interesting video as ever! Just a small bit of feedback, I know you usually explain in the narration, but I still think having axis labels on the graphs would be a good idea, just for clarity. Maybe it bugs the scientist in me to see a graph without labels!

[@TheCimbrianBull]

I second this motion!

[@kimbow7216]

Me third.

[@cpuuk]

So we've gone from "easiest deal ever" promise, to a no-deal recession the likes of which we've never seen before.

[@leahsmilezzzzzzz]

Dude, please label your y-axes. What are the units? Percentage relative to what??

[@JoelJames2]

That bugged me a bit too. However, what I *think* he meant was relative to the current year. If you notice, 2019 is listed as 100%, which prolly means every other point is relative to the current year.

[@leahsmilezzzzzzz]

@@JoelJames2 Yeah, those I kinda figured out (though it bugs me on principle). Starting 5:05 I got very confused (I think it's percentage of GDP though, given further research)

[@xaiano794]

a percentage change is always relative to what you have at this moment - i.e. if you had 10 apples then you expected one more tomorrow, you could say that tomorrow you would have 10% more apples, +10% apples or 110% apples and all would be correct.

[@tripehound39]

The bleeding obvious

[@StYxXx]

"Britain has had enough of experts" --Gove. They could listen to experts or just believe in whatever dream they have. It's funny, that whole teams of experts get dismissed by single non-experts. Johnson knows better than anyone else? Well, we'll see? Also arguing with non-existent trade deals is funny. The UK tried for months but didn't come up with any significant trade deal. Why? Because why should any country agree to a deal in UK's favour? They don't have to, they can wait and trade with the rest of the world until the UK cames crawling back, willingly to accept any term. The UK has no other choice, no existing trade deals, just WTO basics. That's very uncommon and results in a lot of pressure. The EU on the other hand can trade with anyone like before, except for the UK of course. The clock is ticking and the world is just waiting to gain the most profit from this. Countries will agree to certain deals because they'll benefit, not because it'll be the best for the UK. Without a bloc like the EU it's eat or be eaten.

[@ESO-ONE]

I bet those pushing for a no deal will make boat loads of money while the rest of the country rots.

[@Lugmillord]

I bet, everyone who voted for Brexit voted for it to be super harmful to the UK. /sarcasm. Also, "Rubbish in, rubbish out" will probably describe Johnson's time as prime minister.

[@rc55uk]

I do find that grey book icon pretty terrifying now, not sure if I'm the only one!

[@QemeH]

Well... being terrified is a natural response to things that are detrimental to us. Natural selection took care of people who weren't afraid enough :)

[@johncampbell4389]

Optimism vs pessimism... When dealing with income, I am a pessimist. Clausewitz is reported to have said “No battle plan survives contact with the enemy”. I observed that “No budget survives contact with expenses”. Further, i realized the last was optimistic; Instead, “No plan survives contact with reality”, a lesson, I feel, both Boris and Donald (POTUS) won’t learn. “Even when you disbelieve reality, it doesn’t go away. Reality can’t be distorted for long.” “You get what you paid for... but, if you’ve come out ahead, you WILL pay for what you got... in a far less convenient currency.” I do fear for the future of the UK, but, as a citizen of the USA, I am far more worried about the land I am living in.

[@michaelrowsell1160]

A no deal brexit will be worse than any of these benedictions ,because they have not assess the effect on one downside effect on the next and the next,and so on..All these effects will create a downward spiral ,just like a plane falling from the skies. So get your money out of Stirling just as all brexit leaders have .Then you can buy back the country foe peanuts.

[@faircomment1841]

52% of Britains population voted to leave (not me included) back in 2016, they knew what they voted for and also knew this was going to be a strong possible outcome and just want the job done. As far as i'm concerned whatever the outcome of Brexit is, the leave voters should take full accountability for what they voted for.

[@butterflysrage]

None of the brexit campaigns ran on no deal, hell they all said that getting a deal would be easy

[@faircomment1841]

@A Id if it comes to it, yes sadly.

[@faircomment1841]

@@butterflysrage - I do hope you were not a leave voter with that response.

[@iainmackenzieUK]

I wish as much detailed analysis had been chewed over before the referendum... spilled milk under the bridge...

[@Coldheart322]

The problem with then, was any speculation or analyses from either side would be dismissed as 'fear mongering' or 'Wishful thinking' by the other side.

[@gawkthimm6030]

We will burn that bridge when we cross it

[@angelic8632002]

As most leaders should know. Hope for the best, but plan for the worst.

[@sabin97]

that's an engineering proverb. we arent leaders. we are everything.

[@SP-cx2qi]

There certainly hasn't been much planning!

[@Jake-oz5mg]

It's really frustrating to hear hard Brexiteers defending their approach by calling it a defense of democracy. Whilst not false, it was a near fifty fifty outcome, half the country - I'd argue even more than half now - wants to remain in the EU.

[@promptedleek4829]

This is what ive always feared with brexit, haveing a hit to the economy. People like myself on low income are really going to struggle

[@owenb8636]

The idea that trade deals with other countries will make up the difference seems like a fantasy to me. A bottle of wine from Australia has a 10p EU tarrif on it. If it costs more to ship that bottle halfway around the world than 10p then you're not making any gain.

[@demwz]

the point is friction less trade vs. paperwork and broken just in time supply chains. it's also unimportant where you buy your wine from rather where you sell your lamb to. tariffs are 28% in the eu.

[@Malky24]

But the bus said we're spending £350 million a week on the EU! That's £1,400,000,000 a month we can spend on the NHS!!! THE BUS SAID SO!!!

[@matthewalexander9663]

We do spend that amount on the EU every week though...

[@Mohammed8778]

@adam smith it literally said "We send the EU 350 Million pound a week, lets fund the NHS instead" considering that the EU sends money back and invests a lot in britain plus the economic opportunities the membership brings, its a weird argument.

[@Malky24]

@@Mohammed8778 Folk like him make me laugh. If they're honest ,deep down, they're embarrassed at their own stupidity. They were suckered in and they know what's coming down the road. We all do. Some of us just twigged a fair bit quicker.

[@Malky24]

@Joe Ivory Put your tin foil hat back on numpty. They'll be standard issue in your Brexit paradise. 😂😂😂

[@SP-cx2qi]

And they all fell for it, and are now supporting a cause which hasn't been planned for, which is obvious for all to see!

[@M.J.C.W.]

For country without guns you sure are shooting yourselves in the foot real well

[@jonathanwetherell3609]

Brexit is long term pain. At least the USA can change its mind next year and, worst case, they only have to suffer the noisy, unpleasant, smell that is a Trump.

[@antonecruz9975]

Bojo’s bizarre Brexit adventure: Season three premieres October 31st 11pm London time.

[@danwolski]

Great channel, keep these videos coming

[@Jazzi860]

Most people hadn't got a clue what they were voting for the last vote😂

[@drsnova7313]

So Britain pays 9 billion Euro to the EU each year (13 paid to the EU, 4 recieved back). And now they want to go for losing *at least* 30 billion a year. Sounds like a smart move.

[@demwz]

Let the french suffer ...

[@ButchE30M3S14]

I used to look up to Britain, but that time has passed....I hope I’m wrong.

[@dovlomir]

That time has passed*

[@ButchE30M3S14]

Vladimir Nedeljković Edited. Thanks, but I’m in such disappointment that my typing lacks precision...

[@ButchE30M3S14]

So Angry Ask stupid question, get stupid answers.

[@ButchE30M3S14]

So Angry Now you are asking a proper question. And try to act like you asked this question from the start. To elaborate: Britain used to be a beacon in the world. A democratic example. If you still find that is the case, by all means believe what you won’t. But all I am seeing is politicians grabbing or clinging on to power to save their posts. The decisions Britain has made the last 4 years are absurd, reckless and simply Monthy Python-esk. If you don’t feel that way, then we will have to agree to disagree.

[@jameslewis2635]

Sounds like the OBR is spot on to me. While I have never been a fan of Philip Hammond he does at least strike me as one of the few Conservative polititians with a sense of duty and actually wanting to do a good job rather than just feeding their own ego (and bank account) like the incoming PM.

[@sirdeadlock]

The NHS will be the most important thing ever if the UK gets hit by a recession. Take it from a friendly American.

[@tonyb9735]

"Brexiters will claim that is too pessimistic and doesn't take into account the new trade deals" To which I would counter that Brexiters are not taking into account reality (no great surprises there, I guess). The fact is that we're struggling even to replicate the trade deals we already have by virtue of being an EU member, let alone manage to negotiate improved terms. There is no possibility, none, that we will be able to demand better terms than a trading block which has ten times our clout.

[@marcodesanti9304]

00:20 What will be the economic affect... *triggered* IT'S EFFECT GAHHHHH

[@andreicurca9563]

what happened to british pragmatism and utilitarianism ?

[@damienpeladan481]

It's been thrown under a Brexit sized bus

[@Relisysification]

Jacob Rees mogg misspoke Him and his mates will be 80 billion per year better off, not britain

[@antonijaume8498]

Elliot Faraday As far as they are concerned, they are Britain. Kind of Louis XIV "L'État, c'est moi"

[@DaglasVegas]

I got a suggestion, If there's a no-deal Brexit, and it's as bad as the report says...everyone who voted to leave needs to at least lose a finger or a hand. If the UK ends up benefiting from no-deal Brexit, everyone who voted to stay needs to admit they were wrong... I think it's a fair arrangement.

[@Jez1963UK]

Nah, I think the remainers need to walk around wearing a butt plug for a week..... That should help sharpen their minds (and stop them spouting crap).

[@peterbarlow7781]

The UK is done for at least a generation.

[@dewolff6937]

10 years max, and thats good. Fuck gdp.

[@inquaanate2393]

Tard

[@alessandrodonadi1368]

@@dewolff6937 you are saying that like its a walk in the park and not a fucking disaster, ten years of recession is horrible belive me

[@matthewo5572]

Though I’m not sure if you’ve realised, but lowered house prices sounds pretty good, if you’re smart, you’d also transfer your money into another currency before and transfer it back after. At least now young people like myself may have a shot at actually getting a decently priced house

[@peterbarlow7781]

Solid state yeet um yeah ok... but will you even have a job to be able to afford said house. The lower house prices will be cool no doubt but it won’t happen in a vacuum. There will be other shit going on in the economy and it won’t be rosy.

[@tomasroma2333]

No no no no no. The economy will do amazing because you must have faith in the British people. The power of optimism will prevent a recession!

[@thearsenalmisfit2414]

At what point do you expect the unicorns to show up and save everyone. Iwant to bd there to see them.

[@tomasroma2333]

Steve Wismark Where is your sense of hope? Unicorns may exist we just havent found any yet. The EU establishment world order mainstream media ruthlessly poach unicorns.

[@tomasroma2333]

Douwe Bloot Boris has never lied. All he has done is say his opinion and an inconvenient thing like the truth got in the way.

[@tomasroma2333]

Douwe Bloot Yes He isn’t. All he has done is try to build a wall to protect the us from UFOs and look at how the democrats repay him!

[@Aviationlord7742]

You mean what’s left of the British economy...

[@mrsomeone846]

Here’s the truth, nobody knows. Anyone who says they do know is either lying or deluded. Could it go badly? Sure, it could be terrible. Could it go alright? Maybe, I’m a glass half-empty so I don’t think so. Warren Buffet once said predictions tell you nothing except about the people making them, I’ll take his word over economist’s word as he’s actually gone and done something rather than just talking about what should be done in theory while doing nothing in practice. Just had get that off my chest, had this argument with people on both sides of the isle.

[@FriedrichHerschel]

There is a difference between a business economist and a national economist.

[@TorianTammas]

Mr Someone When you give youself as an ecomony a negative supply shock it is bad. The question is only how bad will it be.

[@affinityforanime]

Even with a deal, the UK is facing a setback in its economy. If the leaders of the UK did their jobs (as leaders of a nation) and decided to be courageous, look at the facts and make a decision based on "what is best for the country" they'd reverse their decision to leave the EU and stay. Their political careers would probably be over, but it would be a noble sacrifice for the good of the UK.

[@tommyralph5808]

affinityforanime yeah and kill democracy while there at it which would cause riots, division and hate amongst the country. Instead of being against the referendum result, why not get on with it and accept the consequences of the actions that have been taken?

[@affinityforanime]

@@tommyralph5808 A lot of people didn't understand the ramifications of the referendum, how it would impact their lives and the lives of their fellow countrymen, and there was a lot of misleading information about what leaving the EU meant during the lead-up to the referendum vote. Sometimes a leader shows real courage not by following the popular will, but by objectively assessing the facts and the likely outcome of a decision and making the tough call that it isn't in the best interest of the country. The majority of people don't understand the big picture view of economics. It's just not a part of our daily lives. Such a decision to go against the referendum would have to be accompanied by an explanation of how such a decision was made. Now that more people have seen what Brexit could do, I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of people have changed their minds from how they voted. I doubt there would be riots. I'd predict that life would just carry on as it always has.

[@Snidebark]

A wee bit of constructive, respectful feedback: 4:14 ~ there is no such word as “undoubtably”; the word is “undoubtedly”.

[@johnchessant3012]

I can't understand why anyone would support no-deal Brexit. Of course, this is what we're getting anyway.

[@FriedrichHerschel]

If I had put my money on betting on a struggling UK economy, no deal brexit would be the best I can hope for.

[@altrag]

Its the people who don't understand or don't care about the economy and are focused purely on nationalism. The vast majority of them will regret their decision within a few years should a no-deal come to pass, but they'll almost certainly find some scapegoat or other to blame since it obviously can't be their own damned fault!

[@nameless-sn3tj]

The thing to remember is that uncertainty is also costing a ton of money. Deal, no deal, and firm date are all essential to running an international business. Also, remember economic forecasts are voodoo. They are right about 50% of the time.

[@magneticB]

Brexit has to happen regardless of short or long term consequences. None of these reports or data matters.

[@altrag]

No it doesn't. The government could choose to ignore the 52% "large majority" and put it to another vote or simply drop it or whatever. That would certainly have consequences of its own of course, but its not _impossible._ If for some strange reason Johnson decided to go that route, what exactly could you do about it? Absolutely nothing until the next election and then replace him with someone who also can't do anything about it since the ship will have sailed by that point.

[@CharlieSpencers]

altrag “The people voted on a referendum we proposed? No, they’re wrong. Make them vote again” - Democracy.

[@thearsenalmisfit2414]

@@CharlieSpencers the UK is ruled by parliament not by the people. The people vote for their representatives. Those representatives then go to London and do what they think is best for the country. The country is not run by the people voting on referendums. Referendums are for parliament to gauge what the public is thinking on any giving issue not chart a whole new course that will probably ruin the lives for thousand upon thousand as they loose their jobs and their homes. It doesn't take much of a drop in income to drasticly change the affordability of housing. Meanwhile the group of people that ran Brexit will and are making money off of it by the bucket load. They all come ftom the financial services.

[@altrag]

@@CharlieSpencers I never said it was right. I said it was possible. Certainly unlikely (especially under BoJo) but possible. . Though it would probably be better for the people and for the country. Nobody can predict what the UK or the EU will look like in 50 or 100 years, but we can sure as hell take a pretty good guess at what they will look like in 5 years. Nothing short of a miracle will stop the UK from going through some intense pain following separation, particularly in a no deal scenario.

[@ulicadluga]

November 1st 2019. We've just been brutally woken from our sleep, are herded to the station into a railway carriage in our night clothes. "Where's our baggage, where are we going?" "I don't know sir, but you must get on the train now, it leaves now!"

[@TheMixCurator]

I thought we hadn't really escaped the 2008 Great Recession? Plus, did the austerity we've all experienced for the last 9 years just magic itself away? I don't recall the news announcing "Great news! No more recession!" because I don't believe we've actually fully escaped either. Aren't we always in recession? We have always been at war with recession. Or is that Eurasia.

[@amie8889]

There is no excuse for Austerity at all. It is just a decision the filthy elite make to take more wealth from the people. Keep us all poor.

[@bisque6448]

@@amie8889 reducing welfare is not taking wealth away from you. The public money is not yours to do with as you please.

[@SonicSP]

Good job on explaining the models and difficulty in forecasting in geenral, I thought this was gonna be a video on what's going to happen based on one forecasting report byt you guys did a fairly good job explaining models.

[@jacobharris8340]

Please do a video on Boris Johnson’s new cabinet!

[@MrBizteck]

Naaa he will buy IKEA only to claim its finest English Oak !

[@russiandrivers9986]

Boris should threaten to shave his head if he doesn't get the deal he wants

[@Hewpie]

Am I right in thinking that the last vestiges of the British Empire are our strong position in the EU and our National Health Service which was afforded as the British Empire was on the way out. The rest was wiped out from the costs brought on by WW1 and WW2, which made managing the huge empire developed during the Victorian era unsustainable. So the people talking about 'bring back the British Empire' with Brexit, are actually talking about finishing off the British Empire once and for all. With a big dent in government revenue erosion of the NHS will accelerate, and the UK will lose it's influence in Europe. What do you think of this idea? Death knell or rebirth of the British Empire?

[@thebeststooge]

No, you are dead wrong unless the British Empire suddenly became the HQ instead of Brussels and all laws go through GB instead.

[@hansbass8119]

This is not as much a death kneel and more of disposing the corpse of a had been empire The death kneel has already done in the 40 and 50 from ww2 and nationalist movement of her former colonies. Joining the eec in 74 was an attemp for a last resuscitation. The brexit might finally cause the integration of england as the 51 st state of USA and push the eu towards more integration toward a more unified eu.

[@jjg19631]

Hewpie Inside the EU the UK has a strong voice and position, outside the EU it might have to do some pretty shady shit to survive and most of the time that is perfect for about 1-5% of a population. So I agree.

[@austinbeige]

The more optimistic forecasts rely on the UK signing lots of free trade deals and non have yet been signed. I'd trust the more pessimistic predictions.

[@fensti7917]

Hey could you make a video about the crisis in Iran.

[@jpfad235]

Yeah, pls.

[@SystemBD]

It's a smokescreen. The US and it's vassal state send several military vessels to try to force a war that keeps the public distracted from what's happening back home. There you have the tl;dr video (at this point, at least).

[@bigoof1476]

@HazardousPleb V wow, you are immensely stupid, the UK and US are antagonising Iran to try and force them into violent action so that trump and his far right cabal have an excuse to invade, steal oil, and ruin a country that has done nothing but protect itself

[@CDeliu]

@@SystemBD Wow, that has never happened before. LMAO

[@javaman9010]

@HazardousPleb V Iran are not the sand people. Maybe you are talking about Saudi Arabia?

[@ulicadluga]

The only solution is to revoke Article 50 (though it may be too late), then for the brexit advocates to draw up precise plans and present them to the people. There is no other alternative that avoids disaster!

[@rhammond2152]

Maybe they should plan on a 20-year meeting plan to iron out the 'deal' for an acceptable exit. For some reason, I don't see BoJo lasting more than 12 months, and both the Tories and Labour being dumped in the next election.

[@nader50752]

Labour is leading in the polls

[@freakygoblin3068]

Ah the Mogg one.. that where the author has clearly stated it would mean the end of UK manufacturing and Agriculture.

[@RobCGodin]

Staying in the EU to avoid a recession, encourage employment and promote strong growth has worked so well for France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece......

[@maku_ordmar27]

I'm not sure if this is supposed to be sarcasm or not but in case it is... the thing is, it HAS worked. At least from a Spanish pov yes, we suffered a lot (and we still suffer) because of recession but we'd be in a much worse place hadn't we been part of the EU. Also, as an environmental scientist and an observer of my country's politics, I assure you our environmental laws would be underdeveloped and not restrictive enough.

[@andresmartinezramos7513]

The EU is the best thing that has happened to Spain in a couple of centuries

[@yetanotherRjven]

Are these two trends at 4:50 accurate representations? Because the red trend really isn't that bad...? If I were a hardcore Brexiteer and get told that "yes the economy will take a hit, but it will be almost fully recovered by 2024" then I would push even harder for Brexit sooner than later. Hell, it might even encourage other countries to leave the UE! And yes, I understand that this is the 'mild' version but still...This is kinda scary for the UE.

[@yetanotherRjven]

@A Id Thanks for clarifying. I gave it a listen again and you are right, it is about GDP growth and not absolute GDP. With that clarified, I'm not sure then why is the Y axis expressed in percentage then. Does that mean 95-110% of a nominal growth rate? What is this nominal rate then? The pre-referendum rate? This whole graph/section really isn't clear. It would be clearer to depict the absolute growth rate rather than a relative growth rate but maybe I'm missing something again. I'm not sure what the second part of your comment is about considering the fact that I'm obviously against Brexit. I used the conditionnal form "If I were a hardcore Brexiteer". I'm not even a UK citizen.

[@TheDragonOfWhi]

It's going to be a shitshow, obviously

[@TheDragonOfWhi]

@HazardousPleb V what's that got to do with Brexit?

[@TheDragonOfWhi]

@HazardousPleb V still dont get what you mean.

[@maxr7527]

An image of this video was trending on 9gag for a one minute unskipable ad, just got the regular unannounced skipable one (watched it and it was actually pretty funny^^)

[@ME-gs6yn]

Why are we doing this to ourselves?

[@Carl-hs420a]

because the eu is no longer just about trade, it's about becoming a federal european nation and we in the uk dislike, distrust, and disobey kraut and frog, and their devious plans

[@ME-gs6yn]

Live Parody?

[@CharlieSpencers]

M E Probably not. The EU is becoming increasingly anti-democratic and all-encompassing. The prospect of an EU army was laughed-off before the Brexit vote, but very quickly became a hot topic after, with the current head of the commission (a woman “elected” where she was literally the only person MPs could vote-for) wanting to put an EU-army in place. The EU’s supernational power also allows them to propose and pass into-law Orwellian propositions like Articles 13 and 11, and the undeniable duopoly of France and Germany (Europe’s two biggest economies) is also something to consider. The migrant crisis and decades of mass-immigration leading to the complete ethnic replacement of Britons in many areas of their towns and cities also played into-this. The EU has moved far-beyond an economic union and this, along with other factors lead to the Brexit vote.

[@ME-gs6yn]

James Humphrey Oh, I see. Well since you put it like that I think that £90 billion and another recession is a pretty cheap price to pay to ensure that our society doesn’t crumble because of the ‘ethnic replacement’. Oh, and we get to keep our memes.

[@martynr965]

Trump will come through for his mate Boris. The people of Liverpool will be in for a Bonanza as the port gets a facelift and shipping containers start arriving from the USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. I work for a shipping company and we are already moving ships to US and Asian waters to cover the freight demand.

[@sebastiangeorge7714]

So british manufaturing will die in November?

[@davidjohnson3166]

If there is no deal..... let’s hope. ThenUK ‘s economy will zoom into the stratosphere. Dave in Phoenix Arizona USA.

[@tedcrilly46]

Stratosphere or sewerage system?

[@MatthewJBD]

I stopped believing in estimates, polling and predictions after EVERYONE said Donald Trump has no chance to become The President.

[@Carl-hs420a]

smart decision polls are wrong because their sample sizes don't cover more than 1% of the populace and polls are also wrong because pollsters are biased at the end of the day, pollsters are out to give you odds on what could happen; you should always see it as a bet and simply not play wait until the numbers are solid, that's the smartest move

[@Siathuan]

If the OBR represent the middle path, and Mogg the optimistic high end, how about you also throw in the pessimistic low end? I cannot speak for everyone, but when presented with two different opinions on a sliding scale, I tend to assume the truth is somewhere in the middle. If this is what the OBR does, why don't you also offer the worst-case scenario as well?

[@TorianTammas]

Siathuan The truth are were the facts are. Leaving is about losing. The loss of investment, of jobs of tax revenue.

[@Siathuan]

@@TorianTammas Yes, but for those of us who aren't PhD's in macro-economics and don't have the time to do an in-depth study of each claim, we have to find trustworthy sources that _do_ and rely on their integrity. People being people, no source is completely without bias, hence why you should try to figure out what said bias is, and how much it affects the information provided. I happen to agree, Brexit is one big mess, but when it comes to *how big* of a mess I lean towards bad, but not utterly disastrous. I'm an optimist like that.

[@TorianTammas]

@@Siathuan I totally agree with you. My point was just that if the crash out happens the midterm consequences are devastating. The Japanese have 1200 companies in the UK with 144.000 jobs. They cam under the promise of EU single market and customs union. If the UK government screws them in such a way then they won't trust any government in thebUK for a long time. They will pull out and it may take time but they wont be persuaded easily to return.

[@shaileshrana7165]

Question: they make changes to the deal to get votes in the parliament. May presented multiple deals with small changes. Do these changes have to be sanctioned by EU? Haven't they said they won't negotiate anymore?

[@altrag]

Yep, that is absolutely true. There's a _small_ chance that the EU will give Johnson a shot at pushing something through just on the off chance that he'll be more successful at convincing government than May was, but I doubt they'll extend the deadline again or will be willing to entertain too big of a change to the deal they'd already negotiated. So he'll certainly have a tough go at it, but its _possible._ Or maybe they'll just tell him to take what they've got or piss off. That's also quite possible. . I mean Brexit will definitely hurt the EU as well (albeit not as much as it will hurt Britain,) so its still in their interests to see a deal go through -- or better yet, the UK giving up on Brexit and just staying. But at the same time this constant uncertainty about the whole thing is _also_ hurting them (markets really really don't like uncertainty.) And I'm sure they're just getting right sick of it to boot.

[@Soraviel]

smh 🤦‍♂️ we're looking like a four isle nations that needs serious rehab politically, everyone both on leave and remain has lost it.

[@Carl-hs420a]

there's absolutely nothing wrong with our politics being polarised it's long overdue tbh remainers lost it leavers won it simple as

[@perspii2808]

Live Live How is anything about a nation leaving an insanely complex union this simple? Mindsets like that have lead to the complete mess The UK finds itself in at the moment. Literally nothing about this is simplistic, and nor is polarisation healthy.

[@GeorgeNoiseless]

Just so you know this video was on my KZbin recommendations in the CARTOONS category.

[@attilavarga3991]

on no deal, we will possibly have to privatise the NHS

[@Therealwomenofbronzeestate]

No we won't that's how scaremongering starts. Stick to facts.

[@attilavarga3991]

If I see the deficit, it looks like the only solution is to do that. No household would pay £1000 more, for some that is the whole monthly income.

[@duckpuddles]

Imagine Hammond talking like this in 1939. " If we go to war with Hitler, the economic impact on every family will be huge and therefore we should allow Germany to come and take us over. There will be full employment in the VW factories and the army and everyone will be better off" It is much better financially to have an unelected dictatorship in charge of the UK, therefore we need to rejoin the EU at once.

[@MrAndy76101]

Funky new graphics 👌

[@LoFiAxolotl]

if the pound sterling drops by 10% it would be 1:1 to the euro... that's a 1/3rd loss in 15 years....

[@stan2703]

No one cares if you're first

[@DemoEvolvedGaming]

TIL if you write enough reports about the feasibility of making a submarine out of swiss cheese, at least one will say it's a good idea.

[@eddieford1810]

But muh precious Brexit

[@neeneko]

So.. the only report that says things will go great assumes that there will be an immediate deal after no deal?

[@spoopytime9928]

Nicola Sturgeon: Aw naw, it's teym to try tae get oot a here again

[@LoFiAxolotl]

these days more than not i wonder if democracy is really such a good idea... there's just too many people that don't know what they're doing

[@MarcusCactus]

Eric Boulegue Did you notice that all the horrible political situations in the XXth century are the consequence of taking into account the masses? Now in the XXI, the laughable but dangerous Trump and Macron and Bolsonaro and now BloJo. All the horrible economic situations are the result of free entreprise capitalism, another form of ‘democracy’ through giving power to the epsilons.

[@konigstiger3252]

We hit to economic in exchange for sovereignty is a great deal

[@Noschool100]

then why wasn't it campaigned that way in 2016? why didn't UKIP say "if you want the purest form of Brexit you should know we'll be worse off because of it." Seems very scummy to take Brexit to the extreme after a close victory based on a different campaign promise.

[@Carl-hs420a]

@@Noschool100 because remoaners had a monopoly on the pessimism and there wasn't any left to spare

[@Carl-hs420a]

@A Id the people will be sovereign once more parliament is only sovereign because the people are sovereign however that sovereignty has been eroded over the passing decades thanks to a bunch of self-serving traitors in parliament and the EU so leaving the EU means parliament is once again responsible for any political decision making, and so will be held to account the government and courts will be made to answer to the British people once more

[@Carl-hs420a]

@A Id Climate change directive is a good starting point. There's absolutely no reason why the UK should subscribe to climate change targets set about in EU law. London and some of the other cities might be a polluted sh*thole, but the rest of the UK is doing just fine.

[@LordMorltha]

So Philip Hammond says No Deal would make us worse off, while Jacob Rees-Mogg say it will make us better off. Who should we listen to? The Conservative Party's Chief Financial Officer or some random Conservative MP?

[@0whitecluster0]

Man, half of your videos are self advertising, how about saving people some time? If they like you they will follow anyway.

[@boulevard14]

Hi TLDR News, could you please discuss the impact of the UK leaving trading blocs the single market and EU customs union, and other agreements. There are much more economic impacts of leaving EU without deal left unexplained, involving trade and the state of the current account.

[@dewolff6937]

Muh GDP

[@piotrrywczak]

So basically OBR is a spoiler for the ongoing 3rd season of Brexit anime.

[@servomoore]

Well then the Chancellor better resign now.

[@czarzenana5125]

He already announced he will resign this week when Boris becomes the new PM.

[@abclawfulbennett8791]

He shouldn't be sacked or allowed to resign he should be tried for treason along with treason may

[@chazsaw]

Moving forward, presuming a 'no deal', I would love to see regular updates (perhaps every 6 months or every year?) of comparisons between reality and some of the more notable models.

[@Kalah_]

... not to mention that the Premier League might lose more than half their players...