What REALLY Matters in Tough Bluff-Catching Spots

[@CrushlivePoker]

Which way wuold you have gone with this river decision and why?

[@gabrielrockman]

If I had bet smaller on the turn, maybe I think about calling. But after betting big on the flop and turn, I think this is a fold. I actually like the large bet on the flop. But on the turn, I either bet small or check.

[@bradleyhines604]

I paused at 10:50, tanked for a couple minutes and decided on a fold. It seems bluffy because villain snap shoved and a strong hand would have probably raised the turn, but people do weird stuff sometimes. Maybe he turned a straight and decided to pull a stop and go for some reason. Or he could have all 6 remaining combos of A9 and one combo of 99. Also MDF - I don't think 98 is in the top half of hero's range.

[@Mick-sv1zq]

Those insta jams on river (when villain prob need to slo down & consider what an ace means) are almost always bluffs (& villain was def bluffing) Still a difficult call. Don't think I would have been able to talk myself into it

[@mjrnj]

I literally cackled out loud, what an ending to this hand 😂😂😂

[@leehjones]

Your caller is falling into the "Why so big?" trap and it's a really good reason to jam any moderately strong value. Whether caller folds or calls, the jam put him in an FML spot, so it was a great bet. He has to be good >33% of the time, and I think he'll be fortunate to be good 20% of the time.

[@stephenmcarthur8490]

If im watching this play out at the table, I’m going to start jamming for value against this hero.

[@davidculhane4388]

Yeah a good player can out level somebody like the caller and get max value with a line like this

[@JeffreyHaefner]

Absolutely sick call. Super sick. Balls to the wall. Congrats.

[@EllieBanks333]

It was not a good call.

[@JeffreyHaefner]

@@EllieBanks333 😆

[@דורקרת]

The bet 300 on the turn shows that poker live will never die

[@Jermo484]

Easiest fold in history - it's like you mention at the end, if you're ever losing to any bluffs, you simply can't call just like I'm basically never folding live if I can beat some value hands. No clue why he's even betting the turn. Definition of a medium strength hand that should be in a checkback range. Just a hilariously awful line from his opponent, though.

[@D.D.-ud9zt]

Even at the worst of the poker boom, unless you had a very good read, it was a fold. I can't imagine Texas is worst than that, generally anyway.

[@Senorzilchnzero]

"No clue why he's ever betting". Have you seen the live streams from Texas? Especially Jacks casino. I saw 5 people in a pot on a turn with 3 or 4 of them having an spr of 1-1 and the best hand out of the 4 was i think J4 suited or something like that. Closes around 600 on the turn. It's freaking insane. One guy who's taping all his hands because he wants to be a poker streamer is sitting there with T3 suited. On the turn. Complete miss. Spr 1-1. I couldnt believe what I was watching

[@Jermo484]

@@Senorzilchnzero on the streams and in actual games isn't vaguely the same thing.

[@pot_kivach160]

Ever played live poker? You don't know what you're talking about. They both played well. V played his hand good. Repping A9. It's just the bet size on river that gave him away. NO hand would've bet that much for value in this context. Therefore, good call by H! . Beside: _"you", "I'm", "he's"..._ Sentences broken, unfinished, damaged...all mixed, confused...you believe if you confuses it much enough, people would've thought you're poker expert?

[@davidculhane4388]

I haven't seen reveal yet when writing this but my take as of the river is: Hero bet big on flop and turn. If I were villain I would think there is a good chance hero flopped a set and villain would jam any straight on the river. Villain could easily have just flatted the big bet on turn with 67 or a2 planning to check and let hero bet again, but then when 4 liner comes, he realizes hero likely won't bet again so he has to just go for max value from up front. That is the problem with betting so big in certain spots. You don't incentivise opponents to raise off their strong hands, so their ranged are basically uncapped on the next street. Not enough bluffs, huge absolute size for game, we didn't give villain any rope and we aren't high up in our range as far as MDF goes. Sure, it is Texas but I would let this one go and pick a better spot.

[@tipsy09]

I don’t get quite what you’re saying. But my own final conclusion of the hand was villain would jam here with a rivered straight hoping and praying hero hit a set on the river. I think it could be perceived by various villains in this spot that it’s easier to fold a flopped set here than rivering a set with AA. So that’s why he jams.

[@Conductor2711]

One thing I definitely don't like here is caller assuming that only A9 suited makes sense. This is BB, closing the action, in Texas. Do we really think he's folding A9o pre?

[@JohnSmith-nx7zj]

After he’d said people would call with KJ on the flop when he bets pot into 3 people.

[@pot_kivach160]

suited or not suited, what makes the difference here? You're losing to A9; suited or not! lol . Or, you're terrified that there is someone in this world who does not believe that a Texas player with A9o would've called pf raise? Keep being terrified.

[@Jayyyjy]

@@pot_kivach160 What are you talking about man 😂 the difference is that if BB can have only A9 suited, that is only one specific hand, while with A9o included they can have additional 3 combos of A9 that hero loses to if villain could shove that on the river.

[@mikey22355]

The ending to this made me laugh. Bart’s shaking his head, thinking about if someone had T9 and hero just punted his whole stack. Some of his reactions are pretty funny

[@supersmoo7377]

When caller bets pot on the flop, bets 85% pot on the turn, and then suddenly gets jammed on by the BB on this river.. he should fold. Caller showed so much strength before getting jammed on. It’s very rarely ever a bluff by the villain.

[@pot_kivach160]

that's why it was a good bluff! You believe the bluff that makes sense is a good bluff???

[@lowlimitcashgamespodcast]

Trying to think on these convoluted levels at low stakes is just a recipe for disaster. Hardly anyone in these games are thinking much past what hand they have. Thats it. And they don’t fold top pair. There was a lot of talk justifying these large bet sizings on flop especially but also on the turn. I disagree completely with this logic. A fundamental of poker bet sizing is narrowing your opponents range more and more the larger you bet. And while I’ve played in Texas plenty and they are call happy, this fundamental of poker still applies there. I just find it odd that it was rarely mentioned on any street that villain just has top pair. Which is what makes the most sense out of anything. I don’t know. I think the thing to be learned from this video is to stop giving low stakes villains any credit for thinking anything past “I have top pair” and also stop funneling opponents into having mostly hands better than yours with your bet sizing. I hear a lot of talk about how players are betting big as an “exploit” to extract from bad players. When what generally tends to happen is they become the bad player in the hand playing this way. The fold on the river is an inconsequential one, and also the thing we can learn the least from in this hand. Flop and turn is where the most egregious errors in logic and action occurred.

[@pot_kivach160]

V played this hand perfectly! It's just the caller, screwed it up by bizarre river call. V did not put H on an "A". Rather on high pair (TT/JJ/QQ). So, the river Ace is a scary card - perfect for bluff. However, the bet sizing and how an A would arrive on the river - leaves room for bluff?? Only with A9s hand. Which is not impossible. HOWEVER (again), would A9 bet this large? You be the judge.

[@EfficientRVer]

NLHE is 100% about bet sizing, and seeing what opponents do as a function of that. I think caller's only thing he did well, was decide on the turn, after making an improperly large bet, to consider it a bet-fold. That he didn't fold the river donk shove for the same reason, after a card which was absolutely terrible for him, was a mistake. A big mistake. Having said that, one thing I noticed a decent correlation of during 15 years of pretty heavy play in casinos, is that whenever I had a really hard time figuring out what was going on, the chance of it being a chop situation was maybe 3x what you'd expect from counting combos, etc. Still not enough to call here, because if you can tell T9 or J9 from the villain having 98 here, you're a better player than I. He really did deserve to have the villain roll over J9 or T9 to make him puke. Just the number of aces he loses to (ALL OF THEM) makes it a fold. Combine that with the number of nines he loses to (ALL BUT TWO) and this becomes a crazy call. I think the median hand strength that villain shows down is aces up, and both 76 and A2 will be pretty common also. Let me put it this way. If villain had bet only 2/3 of his remaining stack on the river, I don't think I'm shoving even with a deuce.

[@BH-fd4pl]

It’s funny how many callers were thinking exactly what Bart is thinking.

[@MelFinehout]

You can do a combo bet on the river! Ive done it. Move all in when there is a short stacked fish that will be priced in with anything and a decent player that will know you’re not bluffing into a committed short stack. It’s a special situation. But it has happened.

[@qlow5956]

So best case, you lose to the short stack and get the better hand to fold?

[@MelFinehout]

@@qlow5956 no, if that’s the case you don’t bet. No, the short stack will call with anything at all. The deep stack will assume you can’t be bluffing and over fold. I’m not going to argue with you. If you don’t think it can be done, then it simply can’t. You’re right about everything.

[@williammccabe2129]

Come on now, Villain never has pocket 22. Always go back to pre-flop/earlier streets to make sure the whole story makes sense. If Villain has pocket 22, do you think he'd call the flop after PFR bet pot and got called by 2 other players?

[@hsubox]

In texas this is often A9

[@jackcooke2327]

That's what I was expecting to hear at the end

[@Optable]

Bart code for: 'Have not heard of the place, and it must be a 720p garbage stream with no more than 200 people in it.' 😂

[@paulgibbons-keynotespeaker]

notable that it is bb - can have 24 23 25... in fact, I'd be surprised if fish fold anything in the bb when it goes raise call call

[@Tyler_Parker33]

Easy call, well played by the caller 🔥

[@RemyLB]

The unfortunate thing here is caller got rewarded w a chop bc this is a losing call almost always

[@patrickjordan2233]

LT -EV... Precisely

[@patrickjordan2233]

LT -EV... precisely, IMO

[@bgtopteam]

А9 off is also in BB range

[@JeffreyHaefner]

No reveal yet. He was in the big blind, closing the action. Has a very wide preflop range. Could have a hand like 24suited

[@JeffreyHaefner]

Wow what a call. I would have folded. What a shocking reveal 😂

[@EllieBanks333]

You would have been correct in folding.

[@dandattola]

I was thinking villain turned 9x into a bluff, so fold because there was too many losers from hero's perspective, but he called.

[@fransfermont6193]

Call me a nit but i would have bet 40-50% on the flop and after getting called in 3 spots there i would slow down on the turn and check because a lot of hands like Bart said get there. (A2, 67, 54, 53 etc.) And then evaluate from there. (But hey i play in Germany and not in Texas obviously) In my opinion when your flopbet gets called 3 ways and the turn card favours your opponents more than you it is a clear check to me. Besides what hands do you get value from on the turn besides 56, 42, 32, 22, 52? Do they all play those garbage hands in the first place there in Texas? And do they call almost a potsize flop bet with just overs and maybe a backdoor flushdraw? Jeez. To me it seems that it is very hard to get value on the turn having been called in 3 spots on the flop even if these players are nuts.

[@bradleyhines604]

When all 3 called, I figured he was beat even before the 5 came. When you have a mediocre hand and bet pot and everybody calls, you're probably beat.

[@RR-ns1sz]

Would have been hilarious if villain showed up with a 10 kicker

[@tipsy09]

I think villain turned his hand into a bluff hoping hero had KK or QQ

[@TomRauhe]

The turn card is really good I feel like. It only brings in A2 and 54s.

[@EllieBanks333]

and 67 and 55

[@justinhart7172]

This is the easiest fold omg. There has to have been a live tell on river the way he went all in. And even then. Hero got soooo lucky and still chopped

[@JeffreyHaefner]

Feels like caller is overthinking this one 14min in

[@mdg4347]

Wow wow wow. Smallest chance in history. And he chops.

[@qlow5956]

What a terrible good call

[@BigBadVVolf22]

If people are calling so wide on the flop idt it even makes sense to bet. You’re going to under realize equity since there are so many unfavorable runouts

[@leehjones]

I had a similar thought. The board is so dynamic, and we don't even have an overcard. Even if you were given a signed affidavit that you had the best hand on the flop, it's hard to know what non-9/8 turn card you really want. Once you get called in three spots on the flop, it seems to be asking a lot to bet turn, especially that big. Bet/fold $150 (as Bart suggested) seems reasonable.

[@Badbentham]

A very fair point! In solver land, the bet is of course printing against wide callers. However, it is for humans a spot that is extremely difficult to navigate, where the chance to make substantial and costly mistakes on later streets with a marginal holding is very high.

[@tipsy09]

98 could actually be the worst hand villain shows up with here

[@EllieBanks333]

This is why the "we need a reveal" crowd is just so very wrong. The caller got lucky & chopped, that does NOT make his decision correct.

[@skelthouser2730]

I think chat (and Bart) pretty much agree on this, so reveal doesn't mea much!

[@stephenross6461]

Two massive bets by hero and yet villain remained in the hand. V should never have made it to the river surely?

[@andrewbonnard7855]

Send the caller to my local table plz

[@losyart]

LOl to bad villain didint had 109 or slightly better and made sickest value bluff in history :)

[@Jake-iy6ih]

This was on a stream, what if his opponent was cheating and trying to get him off a chop

[@dillonloncon975]

“What are you playing that garbage for”

[@EasyMoney747]

easiest call in poker, zero tank from me

[@Unhingedanduninformed]

Mathematically bad call, in Texas this might as well be the nuts 🥜

[@tylerdurden8959]

Bort

[@pshimopmrc20]

I haven’t watched the video till the end so I have no opinion on the caller’s decision.

[@MelFinehout]

Thanks for the contribution. lol.

[@skelthouser2730]

Wtf?

[@pot_kivach160]

Ohhh...we all are waiting for your opinion!! Hurry up! watch the end and come back here.

[@qsdailydose8970]

This guy is betting a weak top pair into three people huge lol

[@sabvbaumgard1]

Horrible call

[@robs4530]

u must not care about ur business to keep talking about politics

[@dennisdupuis1567]

He’s embarrassing himself supporting that idiot