What's Going To Happen To Phoenix By 2050?

Phoenix. Suburbs. Golf Courses. Single Family Sprawl. America's least sustainable city is currently staring down a historic drought that could (hopefully) force it to change it's ways.
This video is about the water situation in Phoenix, the future difficulties we'll have in building housing for our growing population, and what's going to happen to the city in the future.
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[@sierranexi]

"Why are there so many golf courses in the middle of the desert?" Some guy at the 110th floor in NYC: "I need them"

[@bluegrassgal]

Snowbirds ... golf

[@arnavsrikanth]

Phoenix should not exist let's be totally real

[@SteppesoftheLevant]

Also las vegas

[@jonathanastro2531]

I agree it's a sprawling hellscape

[@wesleycanada3675]

@@jonathanastro2531 yep I'm running out of here as soon as possible

[@Meadowlarkk]

Fr Im pretty sure the only reason it grew was because of dirt cheap land for people/businesses but like y’all it’s a desert…

[@grahamturner2640]

And back in WW2, it was a good place to train military pilots.

[@TheLiamster]

I predict that in the future, former rust belt cities will experience a population and economic boom as people move from the American Southwest due to affordability and climate change. The Great Lakes region has an abundant supply of water which could sustain a population several times larger than its current size.

[@nathanandsugar5252]

The great lakes area is a "Mediterranean" of NA. Bad environmental and economic policy makes it look dingy.

[@hung8969]

I’ll never feel bad for them. Pretty much all my family lives there. I remember in 2018 I was at my grandmas with all the family in town. Her neighborhood has a golf course. She wasn’t allowed to water her 20k yard but the golf course sprinklers ran every 2 hours so the grass didn’t burn doing the heat wave. It’s so ass backwards

[@Zectifin]

yeah I hate it here.

[@KenPolley]

Literally no one is asking you to feel bad for us you goon lmao. Have fun over in whatever god awful town you live in while we figure things out over here in the fastest growing city

[@KenPolley]

@@Zectifindip then

[@desteny21]

its not that easy to drop everything and leave​@@KenPolley

[@zacharymoore6816]

​@@Zectifinleave then

[@MrJackassss321]

Almost seems like its a bit of a bad idea to built so many suburbs in the FUCKING DESERT!!!!!

[@katydid2877]

Name a place in the US that does not have any negative weather ever,.

[@anthonyiannozzi6777]

@@katydid2877 San Diego.

[@katydid2877]

@@anthonyiannozzi6777 Very true. It just cost 10X too much to live there. And it’s in Cali. And all the illegals getting dropped off may eventually have a negative impact, but sure the weather is nice.

[@pumpkiespoon8524]

@@katydid2877there’s a massive difference between Ohio who has snow storms and well snow and Arizona which is a desert. Why do you think life is so void there already?

[@katydid2877]

@@pumpkiespoon8524 “Void” like open land? Most of the western US is open land.

[@strongtowns]

Always tune in when you post, but what an awesome surprise to get a shoutout! Thanks for explaining incremental development so clearly, this is really crucial stuff. P.S. when I (Mike) lived in Scottsdale, I applied to live at cul-de-sac! Too bad construction wasn’t completed in time before we ended up moving to Chicago. We should connect next time I’m in the valley!

[@ThomasFromPHX]

Thanks Mike! You guys are doing great work.

[@StLouis-yu9iz]

@@ThomasFromPHXPhoenix o my gets 7-8 inches of rain a year… there’s not way to make a metro sustainable in that environment. We could have a few people living there to keep the region going; but it would be much better for the planet if people in literal deserts would start migrating back from whence they came. Afterall; the only reason people moved there to begin with is because they could pollute the environment with air-conditioning that kept the heat out.

[@abrahamlima5052]

Hey. How can I become a member?

[@thatcapuchin6597]

​@@ThomasFromPHXI feel left out... Can I have a shout out too? Lol 🥺🙊

[@jeffreywenger281]

Even some rather smart urban planners I know have told me It was crazy to build Phoenix due to the water issue, and they would be shocked when I tell them that no, the crazy idea was developing agriculture, but that urban expansion actually creates a water surplus since urban land use is so much less water intensive than agriculture. Really glad to see a video that gets this issue correct! Well done!!

[@dliggio12]

Idk if it creates a water surplus if the reference amount of water use is zero when there are no people living in the desert

[@wesleycanada3675]

I still remember when SRP came to our school to explain how to use water well and that whole BS. because I was a little smart-ass i asked him about agriculture and he had nothing to say but "we're working on it"

[@jeffreywenger281]

Israel worked on it and managed some amazing progress even if we didn't. Check it out.

[@Aether-222]

But the suburban sprawl the phoenix has taken on is a HUGE detriment to the environment. The excess amount of supplies, pavement, sewage and electrical lines not only makes it overall les tax profitable for the city, but costlier to maintain. Suburban sprawl in the way phoenix did it and other cities like it, especially those in the south, Dallas, Houston, LA, Miami, Phoenix are hellscapes. The massive amount of pavement also dooms phoenix to eliminate the cycle deserts have, of excruciating heat in the day, and cooling off and staying cool at night. Instead the pavement holds this heat, making the night way hotter then it should. And while agriculture is indeed the major draw of the water, the eternal promise of green lawns is just as bad for water as they are the environment in general. Phoenix needs to stop spreading out and start densifying its neighboorhoods if it hopes to stay truly afloat.

[@planefan082]

Most of these suburbs would do best untouched, with agriculture taking place where more plants actually grow and more dense living concentrated in a more reasonable area

[@rustyshackleford9498]

I just moved away from Phoenix in the beginning of 2022 and the climate was a big contributing reason. Based on current trends, I don't see how the city or state will move to curb the urban heat island effect, reduce unnecessary water use for all the grass lawns and golf courses in Phoenix metro, or significantly reduce car use, especially as it is trending hotter every year. I lived at 32nd st and thunderbird, right off AZ 51 and very near PV mall. Valley metro's plans to build a light rail line to one of the more dense, walkable areas of the city were canceled. The line to westgate and metro center are tenuous and take FOREVER to build. Apartment buildings and townhomes were being blocked in the central corridor while single family housing subdivisions that are car dependent and water intensive are exploding in areas like deer valley, cave creek, anthem, queen creek and san tan valley, and of course verrado and buckeye. As much as I love so many things about Phoenix and Arizona as a whole, it's difficult to see a positive long term outcome for most of the valley. Would love to live in a place like culdesac, but it's taken years to get the first car-free development. There isn't currently enough density or transit infrastructure to support that in most of the rest of the valley, meaning more places like that may be DECADES away. I feel like when people start to leave or when migration to maricopa county (and pinal county) starts to slow, the tax revenue for further development of transit infrastructure will dry up before enough can be built to make a truly walkable metro possible. That isn't even considering the outsized political power of NIMBYs in places like Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Ahwatukee, Chandler, and Gilbert, many of which fight tooth and nail to prevent transit (especially rail) to come into their city.

[@utistudent099]

I was 20 years old in 1987 and was one of the many NIMBYS that stood with signs opposing the new Loop 101 that summer. We knew that moving forward this way would be the catalyst for explosive growth. The freeway planning in Metro PHX is actually good , learning from mistakes made in other cities. This has been a brutal July and it will only continue to get hotter. It is this heat and the dependence on HVAC that makes this population possible. As the CEO of Lennar Homes said , the water will be here. The question on everyones mind is at what cost ? There will be a day where this area simply will become the epicenter of exodus. That day could be as little as 30 years away if some University models are correct.

[@Zectifin]

I've been trying to save up to move somewhere north. I hate it here so much. I hate the heat.

[@joeglennaz]

Would you mind letting us know where you moved? I live near PV mall for many years. I grew up in Central Phoenix and like you there’s many things I liked about this area. I just went hiking yesterday and dreamy Drive park and there were hundreds of people out there. The desert was beautiful and green. It was gorgeous. I would much rather have a long gorgeous winter in a few months of hot summer. Well, maybe let’s just call it what it is five months and very hot summer then live in some place like Wisconsin, where it’s absolutely freezing most of the year that being said, I don’t disagree with anything you said it is getting hotter here I was a kid I live near the 51 in Bethany home then Course there was no 51. Actually I lived very close to 16th St. in Missouri and I know it’s hotter now currently I own a home near PV mall that I lived in but it’s a rental now and I currently live near I 17 in Jax where I live I can walk 1:59 different parks I live in a master plan community, anyway I would love to know where you chose to live because I’ve been considering moving to a smaller area to escape the extreme heat the primarily I’m worried about civil and refs. Something does happen like we lose power for a week people are gonna lose their mind and I don’t wanna be in the middle of it no one will be prepared. What happened with Covid.

[@kylesandidge8372]

great to see a fellow arizonan posting videos about our urban planning woes in Phoenix, and what we need to do to overcome these obstacles. Really enjoying your videos dude

[@StLouis-yu9iz]

You can’t make water appear from nowhere. There’s not ‘overcoming these obstacles’ with that many people in the region.

[@KenPolley]

@@StLouis-yu9iz once it becomes an actual issue, resources and money gets allocated and things get figured out. If it worries you then relocate

[@SincerelyFromStephen]

The people who claim the weather is nice in Arizona have lost their marbles

[@utistudent099]

I so totally agree . 117 F in record breaking 30 days straight this past July is not exactly good weather. Especially when you see yellow body bags being placed in vans in parks around the city. Homeless dying of thirst. AC malfunctions and the clock is ticking. Either you get that thing running or die. How is this good weather ?

[@topkek7587]

@@utistudent099 it's good because it makes people like you leave

[@utistudent099]

@@topkek7587 Let me be clear. I have done HVAC here in Phoenix since 1985. In that time I have done a tremendous amount of charity work helping elderly people live through this awful heat by giving them free labor and steep discounts on parts to keep their air on. Why don't you pack up your own goods and hit the road dude. What have you done lately to help this society survive these scorching temperatures over the ever increasing miserable years? I work outdoors in this crap all day since I was 19 years old.

[@SincerelyFromStephen]

@@topkek7587 the heat will take care of you some day

[@SincerelyFromStephen]

@@moonshine8255 I only like to visit actual cities, so Arizona isn’t on my radar

[@RipCityBassWorks]

Phoenix needs high density TOD around their light rail stations.

[@mrmartinezvida6987]

Hope Phoenix understand they need to make real changes.

[@jameslongstaff2762]

Looking at the weather in Phoenix makes me happy i live in a place that snows.

[@danieldaniels7571]

Looking at videos of snow makes me happy to live in Phoenix

[@AssBlasster]

@@danieldaniels7571 Lol well winter/snow is only really bad in the Great Lakes region like Chicago, Buffalo, etc. The shorter days are the real pain if you are up north. Being stuck inside AC all the time during summer is just insane to me.

[@danieldaniels7571]

@@AssBlasster I’m not stuck inside. I have a swimming pool. Most everyone here does.

[@Demopans5990]

I don't think it snowed at all in NYC for the past 6 years. I even stopped bothering to take out my winter clothes as my sweater + windbreaker is often enough

[@JakeTheJay]

I am always going to be suspicious of any company who's name is a color followed by "Rock" or "Stone"

[@garryferrington811]

The American system of constantly expanding single family home developments may be unsustainable. They don't pay their way.

[@beefxcake2523]

I've lived in phx for 25 years, i live in east mesa almost to AJ and im starting to see a few instances of old department stores, like the old k mart on power, that are empty getting turned into apartments that are surrounded by other stores. i hope to see more of that kind of change. there is so much wasted land where big box stores sit empty for 10+ years and if one does move in they just build a new one somewhere else. and just building smarter in general, you have to design for the heat and energy efficiency since we rely on AC for such a big chunk of the year and instead we build cheaply without any of our actual desert climate in mind.

[@AtillatheFun]

No. We do not need Phoenix to get more water. The U.S government should relocate the entire city to an area that can actually support it.

[@no.rest.in.this.measure]

gosh also the old bashas strip next to banner. What a waste of space! Banner owns it now and just uses it for storage.

[@katydid2877]

@@AtillatheFun Or cut off the spigot to Cali.

[@AtillatheFun]

@@katydid2877 To cali? You realise that it contributes more to the federal government than it takes in right? Cutting Cali out would mostly bankrupt republican states.

[@katydid2877]

@@AtillatheFun So sad Cali contributes so little to its own residents.

[@tomdonahoe3539]

All the factors you illustrate here are significant inhibitors to the viability of the Phoenix metro area. However, I think those claiming that Phoenix will become uninhabitable are thinking of the climate catastrophe. If you can't step outside in the daytime for > 20 minutes without succumbing to heat exhaustion from June - September & can't survive without AC that place is technically uninhabitable.

[@MeloncholyKay]

It’s habitable just not with the modern home.

[@petercollingwood522]

@@MeloncholyKay With what kind of home then? I agree the houses in Phoenix are crap. I own one so I know from first hand experience. But what do you think is better suited to it?

[@AssBlasster]

Just went to visit the Phoenix area for first time in August with 114F highs. I biked for 20 miles in the late morning and had to stop every 30 minutes to chug a bottle of fluids. I pretty much concluded the same thing. My airbnb host couldnt get his house below 80 with full AC at 9 pm. I have a newfound appreciation for SoCal weather and will gladly pay an arm and a leg to live here!

[@BrookerTJustice]

@@AssBlasster That sounds like an undersized unit or a unit low on charge, possible that the insulation has collapsed or been disturbed in the attic but that's only likely in an older home. Living in the desert requires a drastic shift in when you do things and considering you aren't acclimated to the weather it's going to be harder on you than a local that grew up here. I spent two weeks in Denver for work and I couldn't believe that the interior of an unfinished construction site was topping out in the 80s during what they called "summer".

[@burtbiggum499]

The heats really not that bad

[@SeaBassTian]

Tempe Cul-de-sac looks amazing, I'm sure they are having no shortage of people looking for these types of walkable communities.

[@sayrith]

Hopefully it will start a virtuous cycle.

[@railroadforest30]

Hopefully they will build these in the Southeast

[@StLouis-yu9iz]

@@railroadforest30yeah and not in a literal desert 🙄

[@railroadforest30]

@@StLouis-yu9iz true

[@faheemabbas3965]

@@StLouis-yu9iza hopeless desert.

[@horatiohuskisson5471]

Urban sprawl is so degenerate

[@michaeltorrey3603]

Steve Kaiser tried to deregulate the zoning laws to allow duplexes and triplexes but could never get it passed. All the cities lobbied against the bill. I’m not crazy about the idea but I guess it’s better than all the McMansions they flip affordable old houses with.

[@DADRB0B55]

Same with Texas so many adorable areas even near DT but now any small affordable house has been erased & replaced with McMansions that are poorly built with dogshit materials. New construction is ass

[@GaigeGrosskreutzGunClub]

I imagine a large influx of the population to the Southwest is older people - just imagine all these stroads filled with elderly drivers who will end up isolated in their expensive single family homes. With my grandparents' mental and physical health taking a turn for the worst, I pity what will become of these older folks and for the limited younger population and state sponsored services expected to care for them.

[@atomictraveller]

imagine driving behind them in arizona with no AC and they all stop at every light so i drive with a chainsaw now

[@DengueBurger]

@@atomictravellerjust ban cars instead

[@timsmith5133]

You need to check AZ's statistics. AZ is not FL. -; Zoomer

[@atomictraveller]

az has communities and industries oriented toward retirees and snowbirds.

[@grahamturner2640]

@@timsmith5133 the valley has a bunch of places dedicated to retirees. Sun City, which is just west of Peoria, Sun City West, by Surprise, and huge portions of Scottsdale are retiree communities.

[@Littleweenaman]

golf courses SUCK the reasons I hear for keeping them are hilarious almost like if they're trying to joke

[@arabcadabra8863]

Since they already have water infrastructure, they should be turned over to the homeless for designated camping areas.

[@davidgolf3245]

@@arabcadabra8863 If that happens do you realize that city courses would lose millions of dollars and then we will have more homeless people. How bout the percentage of homeless that can work, get a friggin job!!!!!

[@user-mx2ky5ui8e]

@@davidgolf3245Hard to get a job when you have no permanent address. Hard to find a place to live when you have no job. Shelters are often worse than being on the street. I know you’ve been told all homeless are drug-addicted layabouts, but you might want to consider that even a drug-addicted layabout is still a person with hopes and dreams and emotions, and no person deserves to live on the streets.

[@geofflepper3207]

You don't want to spend 5 hours relaxing by lugging a heavy bag over hill and dale under a scorching sun with temperatures over 100 degrees F? Gee. You're missing so much fun.

[@Alarak.]

@@arabcadabra8863That’s the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard. That doesn’t change a damn thing. Only allows the mental health epidemic to herd. You should see Tucson..

[@Diggi1027]

Thomas you feel the same exact way I feel about Arizona. and how they are building.

[@Sarcastic_Asmodeus]

I love your optimism! Keep it up and good luck Arizona! 💪

[@WolfSeril107]

Thomas in 2023: "Phoenix unliveable by 2050? Doubt it." Thomas in 2033: "How I BARELY escaped from the Phoenix Death Zone (Our tires MELTED!)"

[@Frantastic78]

I’m not convinced that the water issue will never happen as you seem to think. Too much short term thinking and profits prevent much change in this area.

[@StLouis-yu9iz]

Apparently too much bias from people that were raised there too. :/

[@cjthompson420]

@@StLouis-yu9izExactly! The same ones who go iTs A dRy HeAt and then spend all summers posting pictures of them baking cookies in their cars and complaining. Like wow you mean the desert is hot? Groundbreaking lol

[@GlassDolphin465]

@@cjthompson420I find it really annoying when people act like it’s so good because “It’s a dry heat” you know what else a dry heat is? And oven a volcano fire. I much prefer a Humid heat anyday of the weak then get baked just stepping outside and losing so much water.

[@GlassDolphin465]

Week*

[@cjthompson420]

@@GlassDolphin465 Lol so true. That year in 2012 Houston had Phoenix weather. 112-116 every day and low humidity. It was awful.

[@loC2ol]

Funny thing is the suburb is better than the farmland water use wise. Way better in fact. They gotta ditch the farms and treat it like how we do in Vegas. You live in a desert. No farms. We also reuse all water that goes down all sinks and drains and toilets. Yes including black water and it all gets cleaned and put back into the system. We actually as a city put water back into Lake Mead every year. Only water “wasted” is water used outdoors that doesn’t get into a street drain.

[@sillyhead5]

I've always been impressed by this channel but this is the first video that shows me just how much deeper of a thinker you are than I am. Thank you for doing the work to make this information more easily understandable to people like me. I don't live in Phoenix but these concepts, I imagine, are applicable in more places than one. And thanks for using your platform to draw attention to Strong Towns. They may be the greatest force for good within world of city planning.

[@roberteugenecarter]

Thanks for this video. I live just off of Grand Ave (before it becomes a stroad) and I really hope this line of thinking takes off. More density, smarter water use, and more desert space to enjoy … the desert.

[@christopherloveless5254]

The two tanks you circled at the 2:10 mark are nowhere near a wastewater treatment facility. Those are the 1 & 2 Wash water storage tanks at the PHX 24th street water treatment plant. This is a clean water facility that treats Salt river water fed from the canal connection at granite reef to bring it up to potable levels. Completely different systems entirely. For wastewater try 91st Ave WWTP just north of baseline, or Mesa NWWRF where the 202 & 101 meet just north of Sloan park.

[@Winterascent]

Came to an end at least 10 years ago. Lots of mid-rise and high-rise buildings going up in central and uptown, as well as Camelback east, Tempe, and probably other locations. The Valley is just turning in to LA, which went through this process 50 to 75 year ago.

[@eazhar]

Your channel is getting great keep it up love learning about AZ

[@Kurisu42069]

You should go somewhere else to get AZ information. This guy doesn't know much about the history and is wrong several times in this video alone.

[@patlynch6517]

Thank you for this video! The shots of the freeways and Grand Ave, are making me homesick for Phoenix!

[@sokratzmmf]

Great video! Would love to see you interview locals from different perspectives.

[@grahamturner2640]

I wonder what water use patterns per unit are like between different residential land uses.

[@derekkellogg8414]

On average, single family homes use over 50% of their water for landscaping. Denser living would almost certainly decrease the amount of water used per person.

[@jamalgibson8139]

​@@derekkellogg8414Yeah, this is a great point. From just a landscaping perspective, living in an apartment uses less water. But don't forget that many people in the suburbs have their own pools, and those consume tons of water as well.

[@jasonreed7522]

​@@derekkellogg8414landscaping water use is based in how compatible your landscaping is with your climate. In the Northeast if you ignore a patch of bare dirt it will start growing grass and weeds in a couple weeks. The problem is people are trying to bring our grassy aesthetic to a desert and being surprised that it isn't sustainable. My general philosophy is that the only effort you should need to put into your yard is trimming and cleaning. If you add something then it should be a native, ideally to the area but atleast to the climate zone. (Meaning plant desert plants in desert cities)

[@drivingphoenix3019]

Thank you for your very informative and well thought out video. 😊

[@tsawyer0315]

I think the reason why people are hesitant to build more high density buildings is twofold. First of all, that tends to lead to higher incidences of crime especially property crime. The effect of that is the second reason which is lowering property values. It’s a complicated issue, but in Gilbert where they’re starting to build a lot more apartment buildings, you’re starting to see property crimes on the rise, which is exactly what people were concerned about. It's up 5% over year and continues to grow especially in the areas near the apartment complexes.

[@justinterested5819]

But how much more people live there? Of course Downtown Manhattan has more criminals than some desert town.

[@Demopans5990]

Funny thing is, on a per capital basis, NYC is pretty safe.

[@focusedfreebird]

Thank you for your fine video which explained everything very logically. I could run back to the great lakes region, or I could just stay here. By the time Phoenix runs out of water for real, I'll probably be gone. Carry on.

[@jameskennedy7093]

Even the downtown looks like car dependent garbage. Why would anybody choose to live in this terrible place?

[@katydid2877]

Feel free not to.

[@burtbiggum499]

They are expanding the light rail all the time

[@devinmathews7809]

The downtown is improving. Last I was there lots of higher density housing was under construction but not to the scale of other large cities.

[@alpz6295]

It would be great for you to talk how taxes differ in Chandler who is 93% built out vs a growing city. Most cities rely on fees for new development

[@JoJoJet100]

An "acre-foot" might be the must cursed unit of measurement I've ever heard of

[@jasonreed7522]

Then let me introduce you to the kilofeet per second. (Its used by NASA) And acre-foot is reasonable for measuring aquafirs, acres is a unit for measuring land area, and rain fall usually ranges from inches to several feet per year depending on climate zone. Multiply them and you get the amount of water entering a watershed/water system. (Or the feet can be taken from measuring the depth of the aquafir, something also generally measured in feet) And in context its way better than measuring in tiny gallons or liters with no direct connection to what is being measured. (Embrace cursed units, they fit their contexts way better than normal units can)

[@UselessDBag]

Hydrologeologist here -- I've worked on many international projects using milllion-cubic-meters and of course, domestic with our acre-feet. Acre-ft is basically the one and only time our freedom units make more sense--easy to visualize, explain to clients and have usable values that don’t seemingly always require scientific notation.

[@junkboxxxxxx]

​@@jasonreed7522the metric system is designed to be scalable. Millilitre... decalitre... litre... kilolitre... megalitre... gigalitre. Your choice, you're welcome.

[@jasonreed7522]

@@junkboxxxxxx thats not my point, sure i could measure my aquafir in gallons, or kilogallons or even gigagallons to get the order of magnitude right, but gallons have no direct connection to aquafirs. And neither do liters, most base units are fundamentally completely arbitrary being based on some physical object of convenient comparison, even the meter is originally just a precise fraction of the meridian passing through Paris. But acrefeet is directly tied to the thing being measured. Volume is just an extruded area, generally described as either cubic lengths or named precise volumes. In the case of water in a lake or volume delivered in rain we have a very large area affected so the extruded area is measured in anything you would use to measure land, in this case acres which are 200ft by 200ft. And then rain and water levels generally fluctuate only a few inches at a time, sometimes a few feet. Multiply the area the water fell on by the amount of rain and you get the volume, if we measure area in acres and rain in feet we are done, math is over after 1 step. Its also very easy to envision the 1acre lot your house is on with 4ft of water on it. I have no idea what 1.3 megagallons (1,303,403gal to be precise) looks like, despite this being the exact same volume. Tldr: metric prefixes work for imperial units, but just scaling units around my be convenient for converting stuff but it loses all context and can make the math of finding a single value harder. Unnecessarily so if you have no reason to convert after getting the base value.

[@Demopans5990]

May I introduce something called, a cubic metre?

[@gljames24]

People on reddit were telling me that golf courses were fine, but that people shouldn't live in deserts. I was so frustrated responding to them.

[@drloveslearning4744]

Love your videos and I am happy to say I am near downtown Tempe and a lot of high-density (apartments) projects in my area and also around downtown Mesa, where I also enjoy going. Great info on how zoning changes work. Oh, and loved the info on developing the car-free community here in Tempe, hoo hoo! :-)

[@Rikson_27]

Alot of them are empty also

[@TheJoec2005]

Im leaving Arizona next May or June I can't stand this heat

[@jhonatanpalacios7626]

Absolutely. We need food, water, and shelter. Water scarcity is a terrifying thing

[@kyleek6152]

soo wild seeing footage of what used to be my old commute on grand

[@wesleycanada3675]

the state has at least realized they are screwed

[@chickynuggy8150]

Here in Australia it’s similar. but what there doing in the suburbs is making the blocks so small the roofs of each house almost touch. So they can fit as many single family homes into a new suburb as much as possible

[@Dethflash]

If you are living so close the houses are almost touching, then it sounds more like a townhouse with a few inches of separation. Maybe thats great as a starter home for young adults, but having practically no yard (because the houses are almost touching) as a homeowner sounds unappealing.

[@jonathanbowers8964]

​@@DethflashA yard to me has always seemed like a bunch of extra chores and work for little meaningful payoff. I don't want to spend every Saturday morning in the summer slaving away behind a lawnmower. If I want to have a barbeque, I could just as easily go to a local park and use one of their pits. If I want to garden, there are many community gardens I could join or do the rental garden plot thing like they have in Germany. The fact that single family homes with Lawns are mandatory in most of the US is just imposing an unnecessary burden on much of the population.

[@chickynuggy8150]

@@Dethflash it really is all you get for a yard is a square patio area and some grass down the sides but not much

[@casper_z1259]

@@jonathanbowers8964 My married friends swear by their big yards but they never use them. Even when they host a party we all mostly gather around the small paved area around the door. Personally I prefer a smaller inlet type of a yard and only because I have a dog that needs to poop and play fetch.

[@danielkelly2210]

Big yards are kind of a necessity for Americans. We don't want to be close to our neighbors. Privacy is important to us.

[@nintendope2976]

As someone from Surprise, thank you for calling attention to this

[@housekeepah]

Good video! A lot of useful information.

[@supking403]

Maybe you people just shouldn’t build a mega city in the middle of a desert

[@AbsyntheAndTears]

I got out of AZ three years ago. I couldn't be happier with that decision. I do not miss the sprawl and the heat and the no seasons. My kids are a lot happier, too.

[@tavitafish]

I remember flying over Phoenix as my first time ever leaving the PNW and it was absolutely wild to me

[@lanxy2398]

How is the PNW? I’ve been looking into moving to Washington State from New York

[@tavitafish]

@@lanxy2398 i mean I love it but obviously I'm a bit biased. I've never been to New York but from what I've heard west of the Cascades has similar weather

[@wilsonli5642]

Glad to see your apartment get gradually better furnished over time :)

[@DanTheCaptain]

Yes. Even Dubai has the Arabian Sea/Persian Gulf. Phoenix needs transit, densification and more trees!

[@chrischann484]

great content as a fellow Arizonians this was cool to watch. Make a video on the housing crisis

[@SuperPJVideo]

im still mindblown that phoenix exists and is growing. its so hot and car dependant. what do people do for fun? what do you do on a day off? what do kids do before they have access to a car? why do people want a grass lawn if they live in the desert? why did they build a city in the hottest valley of an already hot region? i will never understand this city

[@michaelengelhardt5336]

Ive always called Phoenix a city in desperate need of a personality.

[@anthonyiannozzi6777]

That's funny and true about Phoenix city for sure. I live in Cave Creek which has a great relaxed Western Cowboy/Spanish architecture vibe and everyone comes here on weekends for the bars, cafes and restaurants. I am from a city with one of the biggest attitudes and personalities which is Philly... love or hate it, which is much more hate it now because it has become a progressive destroyed wasteland in the inner city like most other big cities Phoenix included.

[@enticingmay435]

It’s all about housing affordability at the end of the day. Yes there are some weirdos who like living in the middle of nowhere and commuting an hour to work and 30 mins to a grocery store but I don’t believe that the majority of people who buy in these far flung suburbs do so out of their will. No one wants to be that isolated and far away from everything. It’s just that you can’t buy a decent starter home in central Phoenix/Tempe/Glendale in reasonable prices anymore. Young family, people on limited income, single people etc. City center living is just not possible if you’re not able to get a half a million mortgage.

[@oliverparker425]

This problem could be solved with density.

[@petercollingwood522]

@@oliverparker425 Not really. Not at the rate people seem to want to move here for some reason.

[@steven4315]

If you use an aquifer faster than it's recharge rate, it will run out. Arizona is using it's aquifers faster than they are being recharged. I don't know how long that will take to run out of ground water but I know it will happen.

[@derekkellogg8414]

Thank you for your more reasonable approach and what looks to be a really cool housing project. I tend to get really frustrated with the narrative of this area being too hot and dry for a city of this size. There is a way that you can have a city of this size that uses water sustainably, is cooler, and receives more rainfall. That way just isn't car-centric.

[@StLouis-yu9iz]

How do you plan on increasing rainfall?! 😅

[@derekkellogg8414]

@@StLouis-yu9iz By asking the clouds nicely. Actually, there are a couple of issues at play. The first is the heat island effect. The massive heat island of the Phoenix metro area disrupts weather patterns and weakens storm systems. This leads to less rainfall. The second is that rainfall is a complex interaction between soil, plants, and atmospheric moisture. For the sake of simplicity, you can think of a healthy soil as a living sponge. When it rains, a healthy soil can absorb that rainfall locally rather than having that water drain off and leave the system. Indeed, there is a vast body of information out there showing how no-till farming increases water infiltration (I can provide if needed). Next, remember that plants that are not water stressed will release water vapor as they respire (especially at night). Indeed, more than water, plants release nucleating agents that promote cloud formation. In other words, healthy plants increase atmospheric moisture and promote cloud formation. This means that healthy soils and plants could accelerate storm systems rather than weakening them. If you would like examples of how to increase soil health and plant coverage in the desert, I would highly recommend Brad Lancaster (Tucson) and/or Geoff Lawton (Australia and Jordan). Both of their actions are on too small of a scale to change rainfall, but their efforts applied over an area as large as the Phoenix metro area could very easily have an enormous impact if it were paired with an urbanist approach to city planning.

[@cjthompson420]

It’s not a narrative though it’s factual. Phoenix area has the lowest density of any metro in the US. Are you going to tear it all down and start a new? There’s no saving Phoenix from being car centric

[@derekkellogg8414]

@@cjthompson420 Please cite your source for the PHX metro being the lowest density of any metro area in the US. A short perusal indicates that metro areas like KC and Las Vegas both rank lower. I've also lived in the KC area and would concur with this assessment. Second, low densities are actively maintained through construction codes and zoning laws. Change the laws favoring cars and developers will do the work for you. Cities like Houston tore down car-unfriendly city centers to make room for cars. It seems hypocritical to think that the reverse is somehow out of bounds.

[@inconceivableabysses]

Affordable housing is a broad term, and the homeless camping in piles of garbage are often addicts and/or mentally ill. Some people need government funded rehabilitation, or in-patient care, before they can live independently.

[@Love4puppies]

I remember seeing them digging for water in Buckeye AZ last May 2022

[@punkdigerati]

That Murphy bed couch combo is smart. Does it have a stand for the end?

[@AmazingCreationslego]

Really appreciate the non-partisan approach this topic. I have two questions relating to water usage in Phoenix I'd love to get your thoughts on. First: How does the density of housing reduce water usage? Whether ten poeple move into single family homes or ten people move into duplexes doesnt change the water usage as there are still ten new residents showering, flushing toilets, ect. Second: you mentioned a couple times how much water usage is used agriculturally. Are you advocating for less agriculture in the Pheonix area?

[@jamestucker8088]

Lawns use a tremendous amount of water. When I got rid of my 600FT^2 lawn my household water usage dropped by 1/2. Also any water used inside goes down the drain to the water treatment plant and is then used for watering golf courses, parks or recharging ground water. It isn't wasted.

[@AmazingCreationslego]

@@jamestucker8088 I don't have any quantitative data for this, but I would assume based on trends in the industry and anecdotal data that most of the new suburban construction in the area does not have lawns and uses desertscape. Regardless of this however, excess water in the irrigation of landscpaing returns to the water table where it is again used and again. It too, isnt wasted.

[@grahamturner2640]

It’s mainly about landscaping and other amenities (e.g., pools).

[@onesob13]

​@@grahamturner2640yeah, it seems like a no brainer that you'll use less water if you share a pool with 40 units than if every one of your neighbors has their own pool in their own back yard

[@codebrew420]

Hi Thomas, solid video buddy!

[@DigitalNova5]

Please keep preaching man. The pure stupidity of Phoenix planning has made me want to join the city council to help stop it

[@kylefarley5851]

I feel like recently Gilbert has built alot of apartments and townhomes along the santan mall area but outside of there, there isn’t much

[@Unmannedperson]

Shout-out to California's Senate Bill 9, which ended single-family housing in the state, in the sense that if you have a house on a lot, you can add an ADU and/or split the lot to construct a second house (and second ADU) on the other lot, for a total of up to 4 units anywhere that is currently zoned/built out with just 1. The only problem is that other municipal codes (e.g. setbacks, driveway requirements) still apply, which eliminates probably 95% of houses from the pool. After all, you would need 12-20' for a driveway (depending on jurisdiction) to the second lot, but most houses are built with a 5-10' side yard.

[@jmd1743]

What will the boomers do once they no longer are able to drive , and once the country can't afford to take care of their aging population because they squandered 30 trillion dollars in the last 20 years while now requiring the country to spend close to 750 billion a year on interest payments?

[@katydid2877]

I had 30 trillion dollars? Oh, you mean politicians wasted 30 trillion dollars. I don’t agree with practically anything they ever do. I thought you just wanted us to all die so you could party. Can’t I just get an Uber?

[@jmd1743]

@@katydid2877 The idea that we need migrants to pay taxes to fund boomercare is total bullshit, we're spending close to 3/4 of a trillion dollars because a bunch of manchildren didn't want to balance the budget since the year 2001. I care about the debt because the interest payments. 750 billion dollars a year, what would you spend that money on instead of giving it to bankers? To give you an idea how disturbing 750 billion dollars of yearly interest payments is that you could pay off all the Nation's medical debt for less than half that amount(i hear it's around 200-300 billion dollars total). A few years of saving up you could also pay off the student debt. It's outrageous that the boomers dare argue that we can't switch to EVs because of the "grid" when it's their stupid ass generation that let the grid fall apart to begin with. When they say we need to modernize the grid AND say that we can't switch to EVs because of the "grid" the boomers are quietly saying that they should be able to dictate what the infrastructure should look like once they're all dead. They want to invest the minimum to not have rolling brown outs but not enough to provide for the needs of the country for the next 100 years. What the boomer generation did was the equivalent of using all of the money in their bank account so their kids or grand kids they hate couldn't inherit money. They're a bunch of bitter assholess who don't believe in the afterlife and so they feel their biological clock ticking down which makes them very angry & upset. That's why their policies they support is akin to wanting somebody to punch people who they hate in the face. They don't want a 2nd new deal, they want a bully in office and not say Eisenhower or FDR.

[@oliverparker425]

@@katydid2877 I wonder which politicians the majority of boomers vote for.

[@katydid2877]

@@oliverparker425 No idea. Every city and state has a split of votes. People over 59 don’t all live in the same place. Is Cali only people under 59? Oregon? Washington? New York? Who voted for Barry twice and the melon head in the White House today?

[@topkek7587]

@@oliverparker425 israel?

[@michaelchristman2329]

Has anyone ever thought of building in a place where there IS water?

[@TheEGames]

Exactly. how do people move to the middle of the desert and then whine about not having water

[@applecider9968]

Thank you

[@Demopans5990]

They're all taken. And quite expensive too these days, even disregarding coastal city prices

[@jerredhamann5646]

Wisconsinite here and even though my state is wet and has shoreline on the great lakes it also has unusually strict laws about getting water, waterights the preservation of wetlands and laws protecting water quality my city isnt even able to properly salt most roads due to concerns it will cause saline runoff into the lake. The state also made transporting water outside of its basin or source illegal. I see people in arazonia that are free to drill as many wells on private land as they want and are tapping water from hundreds of miles away and in many cases must use all their water allotment or lose their water rights and are not allowed to collect rainwater all so they can grow strawberries in a desert seems crazy.

[@Nonamechannel420]

We should not let people move here from California.

[@ShhCaka]

California should not let idiots use smart phones since we invented them

[@reubenblanco3021]

No thanks don’t wanna live in a desert.🏜️

[@chrismd00]

Good video! You got a new sub!

[@WinginWolf]

15:12 proudly c: Unfortunately that just makes the traffic even worse; extra density, but without the infrastructure catching up. Regardless, people WILL come. Something Austin didn't realize back in the 90s...

[@fischerfys0958]

Thomas can we get a little Strong Towns Phoenix organization going?

[@science1644]

Is there a Strong Towns in Phoenix?

[@zozobare68]

Another great video❤

[@richardfoldes7793]

Im so confused as an european why do so many people want to live in Phoenix 🤔 Like, I know prices ar3 cheap but whats actually there. 😂

[@josephaugello1527]

There not that cheap ave home price over 500000

[@ewuthadaws1528]

Convenience. I live in Scottsdale. I'm a few minutes away from shopping and great restaurants in every direction. I'm close to my job, and have a home with a yard where I enjoy gardening. When I want the snow or skiing, I drive two hours north and I'm there. If I really want to swim, there's lakes within an hours drive or San Diego within 5 hours. My neighborhood is safe, and my kids have grown up without the worry of real crime. In short, I love life here.

[@sacamigo1]

Some people dont value the same things. If you check out the google maps if youre a driver phoenix has access to a lot of parks including grand canyon. Not too far from vegas... No one talks negatively about AZ in the news like California, New York, Texas or Florida so limited expections. Heat and travel are solved problems to people, they just want the white picket fence life

[@stephengray1344]

I once heard somebody speaking at a conference say in passing that they'd moved to Phoenix because his wife had a medical condition that doesn't cause her problems in places with really low humidity. Obviously that's a relatively rare reason to move there, but it illustrates that there are genuine reasons somebody might want to live in a place like that (as opposed to moving there purely for work).

[@richardfoldes7793]

@@ewuthadaws1528 Oh I understand now.

[@baronvonjo1929]

People dont really want to live in apartments or such. People want single family homes. The zoning laws dont help. To be sure. But I don't think many people find a duplex or townhouse to be desirable in the long run. Everyone I ever talked to finds the few duplexes and townhomes they build to be terrible. People move into them. But they are just so poorly built and ugly as sin. Plus are build like single family homes away from everytbing and dont make anything more walkable and just continue the sprawl

[@Dethflash]

I don't know anyone who desires to live in an apartment or duplex in the long term. Owning your own home has always been part of the American dream, and I don't see that changing anytime soon.

[@Loopisus]

Exactly. The reason why people from California love to move to Arizona is because there is affordable single family homes. Ive lived here my whole life and personally I wouldn’t find it worth it to have to deal with the terrible weather and cities while also living in some crappy duplex.

[@danielkelly2210]

Pretty much the only way to live is in a single-family home. They are also the best type fo house and are generally well-built, especially so-called McMansions.

[@petercollingwood522]

@@danielkelly2210 There is nothing "generally well built" about any house built in the last 25 years in Phoenix.

[@Demopans5990]

Sfhs are great if you are unmarried or at least, not raising children. Otherwise, you will find yourself taking on another full time job as mommy taxi since for some odd reason, 8 year olds aren't legally allowed to drive yet. Meanwhile, 8 year olds in China, Japan, and South Korea are far more independent from their parents, well, would be if it weren't for cram school. Which they are getting to via the train Now I know why American adults still act like soft children. They were about 10 years too late when they can feasibly start acting independently from their parents.

[@blores95]

Your production value and writing/research has improved vastly from your older videos. Great job. Those cul-de sac communities look super interesting. California/LA is no where near as hot as AZ but I'd appreciate some of those here. We seem to have some fascination with those super blocks from Barcelona but with our climate i feel like the cul de sac's are way more our speed.

[@hobog]

Need to account for wastewater injection into aquifers, "Artificial Storage and Recharge". Overdrawing starts to draw this wastewater, before depleting the aquifer of all water. If water really isn't dooming phx, there's worsening heat

[@Davitofrito]

Surprise AZ been getting so expensive. Building all these tiny homes that are basically little apartments with micro yards that go for 2400+ /month. We have Costco and love all the new stores but affordable housing is getting harder to come by. Honestly might move out soon because its just so hard to make it here. Its turning into California 2.0, especially with all the zombies in Phoenix.

[@donxavier10]

I truly don't understand why people want to keep coming to Phoenix.

[@reyinfante5553]

Soaring temperatures and water shortage in a desert will definitely affect it, worse than Las Vegas.

[@theaquariancontrarian3316]

Thank you!!! Golf courses should be banned and torn up! They are so wasteful and you can only golf half the year because of the heat anyways!

[@johnsmiff8328]

Water is a human right and all.. but we have to some price signal to disincentive unsustainable developments in the desert.

[@ParisCycling]

This Tempe cul-de-sac looks absolutely amazing.

[@linuxman7777]

The houses are much less bad in terms of water use than the farms they were replacing were. So as far as water goes, in the desert sprawl seems to be better than rural.

[@petercollingwood522]

The problem is it's not just farmlands that being replaced. There are thousands of acres of actual desert that is being converted into sprawl as well.

[@fixerny]

Before Zoning became a four letter word, older cities in the northeast and rust belt saw wave after wave of conversions of existing single family homes to multi unit buildings as the need and market for rental housing boomed in the past century. Would be interesting to see how successful TOD project in Tempe is with no parking.

[@heartoftherobot]

Great video, I live downtown and my lease is almost up so looked at Culdesac-it’s a complete joke. Overpriced microscopic units with limited amenities and not even an option to pay extra to park a car. I’m a business owner and not having a car doesn’t work for me. It’s not feasible to endlessly pay for Uber or deal with crackheads on the Metro because some developer wants to prove a point. I would have paid extra to park but was not an option offered to me.

[@Well_Earned_Siesta]

When Phoenix converts farmland to suburbs, it's a water *savings*. Most people dont realize this. Low density residential housing consumes far, far less water than any farm crop that can be grown in the central valley. And the knee-jerk suggestion that "high density housing" is the solution to every problem, is also wrong. High density housing would put even more demand on a limited water resource.

[@garcjr]

There's a serious issue out in Cochise County where most of the Board of Supervisors have been appointed by the industrial agrifarmers. Those mega corporation farmers are allowed to drill as deep as they can pumping the local town itself dry. And leaving the small farmers on worthless land unable to make money on. I read an article a few years ago where Pima County wanted to build a desalination plant in Mexico to pipe to Tucson. I know Maricopa County has brought up the idea. Mainly as contingency. Who knows what will happen but one thing's for sure. The days of cheap water here will be coming to an end.

[@petercollingwood522]

It's worse that that. There is a scandal going on currently where Saudi Arabia is using Arizona water to grow cattle feed for their cattle whcih they won't grow themselves. The previous aministrations welcomed it. The current governor is attempting to do something about it. Hopefully she will succeed.

[@emersonolivares9217]

It's isn't a bad idea going around the northern part of Arizona there are so many mountains and lakes by California coast!

[@leeandersen9298]

superb report!

[@JChe-ft4zc]

I'm actually pretty sure by 2050 Phoenix will be inhospitable for human habitation. This is not die to the water, which would only cause a decline, but the weather. Too many homes won't be able to adequately cool thier house at ~150. That's why i moved away last year. You can stay inside all you want, but you have to leave at some point for groceries and sanity. Then you realize everything outside is literally cooking you. How is infrastructure going to be built/maintained when EVENING temps are above 110?

[@gardenerofthegalaxy]

Phoenix shouldn't even exist.

[@genxtechguy]

I’m not sure about your opinion, you can’t even spell Phoenix correctly.

[@gardenerofthegalaxy]

@@genxtechguy Thanks for correcting me.

[@BlueHans]

been living in the phoenix valley for 5 years. moving out in 2 weeks. counting the days. live in the PHX area OR live sustainably and healthy. choose. also: It's been one record-breaking summer after another. the older people keep saying "it's hot ~3 months of the year" - by now it's intolerably hot for almost HALF the year...

[@VulcanLogic]

How many days in a row was it 110° or hotter?

[@Sarcastic_Asmodeus]

Lucky! These upcoming years are gonna be a really rude wake up call for the rest!

[@BlueHans]

@@VulcanLogic It's been a record-breaking 30 consecutive days over 110, with lows rarely dipping below 90. Hopefully, we'll fill up the month today. Fingers-crossed.

[@bootmii98]

@@BlueHans Apparently it rained and was "only" 106

[@Demopans5990]

@bootmii98 So are kitchens just optional now in Phoenix? You could probably cook all of your food just parking the car under the sun

[@jmd1743]

It's indistinguishable from other sprawl areas.

[@fallencommaner]

People have decided the best place to grow alfalfa, run golf courses, and build semiconductors (three of the most water intensive industries on earth!) in the middle of a desert... and they wonder why we have water issues lol

[@TheEGames]

When people who move to the middle of the desert wonder why there’s no water 🤯