What Was Winker Thinking on the Bases?!?

[@soulchorea]

Great explanation. He basically got caught in that no-man's land between yellow and red lights, and couldn't decide until he found himself already in the intersection with a red light hoping that cop didn't see (he saw).

[@a.c.m.2336]

Great explanation as usual. How do you get access to that view? Are you able to see it live during the game?

[@sbrasel]

If Winker had run full-out in a panic after seeing the throw going to second, and made the base, then he would be the genius for having deked the outfielder into throwing behind him. "Yeah, I was hoping that the the throw would go to second when I hesitated. It's a basic baserunning strategy--I'm a little bit surprised that they fell for it." But instead he's the goat.

[@mastercko]

Thanks for the thorough explanation. I think that you could say Winker would have had a better chance if he just runs hard after the throw to second, but honestly, it's still not a good one. Lux (2nd) and Muncy (3rd) were both pretty well positioned for Lux to gun it to Muncy immediately if he needed to, the double-clutch/pump fake from Lux was specifically to break up Winker's "let's make it a rundown" timing once Lux saw him start looking back. If it was just a clean "grab it, transfer and throw for the tag" throw from Lux to Muncy, I think Winker was still too far away to make it, even at full tilt, but maybe he creates a fielding error (which is where I think the greater chance would come from).

[@furyofbongos]

Great breakdown, thanks!!

[@jonathanh4443]

There is a view of this play where you can see the center fielder line up to throw to third and mid throw pull it to second. It would be good to throw that view in so you get to see what the base runner was seeing when he decided to stop.

[@AntonelliBaseball]

@@jonathanh4443 I believe I included that view. Unless there is a different one I haven’t seen

[@jonathanh4443]

@@AntonelliBaseball ya you got it at 2:18, missed it first time through. Thanks!

[@paulquirk3783]

Hey Matt, Great breakdown. A suggestion about those high overhead shots: zoom in as much as you can without losing anything you need to see. This shot had the bleachers! I can't see the ball.

[@RobKandell]

Great explanation of advanced concepts for the fans who want to know things a bit better. Thanks, again.

[@MMuraseofSandvich]

Reminds me of the top of the 10th in game 1 of the WS. Ball hit to short, Edman fumbles the ball a bit, Chisholm scores, and for some reason Rizzo runs from first to second and... slams the brakes along the way, allowing Edman to make the play at second.

[@jeffchaney6089]

A+ as usual...

[@aetopus1228]

Love the content! Seriously bro, the mic level needs about a +6 db bump.

[@thomasmoraninspace]

Sounds like an extended description of Winker's mental life...

[@dennisriddle]

Rule number one: always run as hard as possible and force the defense to make the play.

[@gregh2322]

Winker over committed to third base and Hernandez made a great play. But given the score the Mets needed base runners more than a guy at third base.

[@jimmeade2976]

How about a comment on the batter's base running? It looks like he's going to go to 2nd, expecting a play at 3rd, and then stops, when Winker stops, not knowing if Winker is going back to 2nd or not.

[@AntonelliBaseball]

@@jimmeade2976 yeah didn’t end up being a factor in the play, but he would have gone to 2B if throw went to third

[@Mitten4371]

Yea as a base runner you have to know what the situation is when your on base and how many outs that there are but on a play like this the ball is in front of the base runner. So you as a base runner has to decide whether you can make it to third or not because this was an inning killer for the Mets. Most of the time the first base coach is telling him what the situation is but what the third base coach could have been doing was to tell the runner to keep coming or could have yelled down which means to slide. But on the defense side of things you are taught to know what to do with the ball if it is hit to you. So most of the time the defense especially in the outfield and on this play has to think 2 bases ahead of the lead runner. So most of the time this ball would have gone to third base but the Dodgers was going to keep the double play in order but was lucky to catch Winker napping on this play. But especially in the playoffs you can't make these types of mistakes because it cost the Mets the ballgame last night

[@geraldponce8336]

I agree third base coach is a very difficult job i would never want to do. Super contortionist throw. Goes back to my in motion adjustments. That can be a game changer and it only takes a 1/10 of a second for the brain to recalculate a physical reaction. Probably 2/10ths of a second, another 1/10 of a second for the brain to reanalyze the situation. Obviously, it threw the runner off so much he was in no mans land. Here is what I feel. I think the center fielder was going to second no matter what the lead runner was going to do? The infielders were probably thinking his run was meaningless let's keep the double play in order and keep the trailing runner from advancing? Thus, preventing a big inning? And the center field was like ok trust my teammates. Cause it just seemed like a lot of confusion going on everywhere else other than the whole infield saying throw to second. And the lead runner I don't know what he was thinking other than I am in dead mans land. Probably thought the throw was going to third. Lol. I think as a runner. You never change your mind halfway between the bases. That almost always ends up in run down or out by mile. Your past the 1/3 mark going full speed. Don't stop! So much can happen. Throw is off line, the trailing runner can advance, you can beat the tag, the third baseman might bobble it? Recently I was watching the Willie Mays documentary. Just his level of confidence and baseball smarts and his willingness and odasity to take the fate of the team into his own hands. Was interesting to me. He basically said nobody on the field knows the opposing team, the situation, my abilities better than me so I am just going to make my own decisions on the field. Was like a supreme shocker to me to hear him say that. Like this is my team and I am the leader of this team and no one is above me. Lol. Well when you are the star you are the star. I think a few post ago about Ohtani rounding third on the ball to Machado and I gave him a 33% chance of success. Was later thinking It is probably about the same odds as the guy in the on deck circle. That is a good example of the phycology of baseball. Some people don't want to be the person with the game on the line 2 outs in the bottom of the ninth and others just have a supreme confidence in those situations and feel no regrets in being the one who takes the risk. Because people who think like that most likely feel there no one else as qualified to make those decisions than themselves.

[@geraldponce8336]

You quite simply can't be worried about failure. Sort of have to be a gambling man when you play baseball. Can't be afraid to throw it all on the line, win or lose. Cause quite frankly after playing 20 years I have done a lot of both. But I don't think I ever once didn't want to be the one in the big moment. Because It is fun. Win or lose. We relish the opportunity to be the hero and sometimes the goat. After a while we even appreciate our competition and are gracious in defeat as well as humble in victory.

[@mikekeene3743]

Center fielder was going to throw to 3rd the whole time. Then realized everyone saying throw to 2nd, which is the correct play with the big lead. Otherwise it would have been 2nd and 3rd.

[@auzmo]

I dont think either was tricking either. CF just decided last min to throw to 2nd to keep double play in order and why his teammates were pointing there.

[@daifeichu]

Go hard until you hear 'OUT!' or safe. I don't want the Mets to win but it was a bit difficult watching him dilly-dallying 2nd to 3rd. Nice break down and I do like the entire field view at the start.

[@cramones88]

As a last resort could he have gotten in a pickle and get the hitter to second base?

[@chuckw4680]

Just curious, can anyone make out enough detail in these zoomed out views to actually see the ball? In the era of 4k, this is worse than stereotypical 90s security cams. Sure I can see the whole field, but I can only guess where the ball is based on player movement. To me, this view is not in the least but helpful to be the primary visual for conveying the clips' message.

[@GoatsAndChickens123]

Your're exactly correct. This view is great if it's in a quality that we can actually see the ball but this video (at the moment) is only 720. Get a 4K version of this camera view and I would be all for it. At the very least hit 1080.

[@chuckw4680]

Ok, glad it's not just me. I haven't seen anyone point this out in any of his other clips, so maybe Matt will take notice and make an adjustment?

[@waakca]

I think this is a great perspective. You can see the whole play and how everyone on the field reacts.

[@AntonelliBaseball]

@@chuckw4680 this is the best the video comes in. It isn’t available in a clearer format. There are no other views that you can see the entire play unfold, so I still like it. The tv views never allow you to see what really developing

[@chuckw4680]

@@AntonelliBaseball I get that, def not blaming the poor quality on you. The view isn't intended for media, so when made public and posted online, it's probably downgraded to save on bandwidth/storage.

[@alvinthecat8426]

"deer in headlights", thanks for posting

[@joelbeck6600]

Probably about Milwaukee ....lol

[@vicrid]

Ouch

[@unclestinky6388]

I think the 3rd base coach should wave him over. There's nothing to lose. It may not have made a difference, but there is enough potential benefit that he may as well

[@guyray1504]

I think the fact that the runner didn't RUN to third but just quite running when the ball went to second.

[@CommonSense823]

Look up low effort and low baseball IQ and you’ll find Winker’s photo.

[@Cellphaxg]

What? I strongly disagree with the third base coach not being his responsibility to tell him to go to third base. He should help the base runner.

[@AntonelliBaseball]

@@Cellphaxg that’s fine. I’m just telling you how it works at the big league and even college level.

[@elasmojones]

Player is responsible for that one. You can't look at the play and the coach at the same time. By the time Winker even looks at the third base coach it'd be too late to go.

[@davidbohn8955]

I know people flame pro players for making mistakes, but lest we forget that they are humans. It takes a ton of talent and reps to get to the big leagues and I hope this moment isn't what defines Winker's career.

[@AntonelliBaseball]

I’d say 99.9% of people will never remember this play even happened past game 2 lol

[@stich21]

@@AntonelliBaseball nah, us Brewer fans will remember forever. After he said he will always hate Milwaukee the feeling is mutual.

[@positively_broad_st3780]

In a 9-0 game - no...

[@RapIsDeadly]

So Winker fuked up twice. First he should've just went to third....then secondly after stopping he should've went to third. lol

[@kingyellowman5762]

He screwed up 3 times. Should've stayed at second to begin with if he wasn't sure he could make it to 3rd

[@elasmojones]

Kike doesn't have a great arm. Take that easily.

[@stich21]

.199 average while with the Brewers. Hope Tinky Winky has many more moments like this in his career.

[@TREEHUGGAH1]

maybe the betting houses wanted it to be 9-zero? i cant believe he did that in a real game and it wasnt ''on purpose''? betting has ruined sports imo.

[@crdudley]

Man, there’s no way these guys are throwing games. Do you have any idea what it would cost to buy a team of millionaires who’ve spent their entire lives, every day, dreaming of winning the World Series? Plus, remember every player who is approached has to stay quiet, there can’t be one dude who says no and tells someone.

[@TREEHUGGAH1]

@@crdudley surely ohtani would never gamble on baseball right? lol imo the betting houses own and have ruined baseball im sad about it too. did u see any pete rose tributes lately by mlb? thats enough for me to watch jeopardy instead of mlb. now i love and support MILB. hope one day things go back to no rainbow uniforms and no ads on every helmet and uniform. play ball.

[@johnhodge5871]

​@@crdudley I think what TREEHUGGAH1 is getting at is that now that Major League Baseball is involved in sports betting, when something like this comes up there's this tiny shadow of a doubt in the back of the mind asking, "Is this real?" If this is what TREEHUGGAH1 is thinking, well, I'm thinking it too. Maybe not so much about this play, but the thought never really goes away. It's enough to make a casual fan such as myself to consider finding something else to watch. That's the corrupting influence of sports betting. That's why Rose was banned. That's why Shoeless Joe Jackson was banned. A hint of a doubt is enough to ruin a sport. My favorite sport, bicycle racing, has been ruined by cheating, bribery, and corruption. I'd hate to see it happen to baseball.

[@crdudley]

@@TREEHUGGAH1 to each his own.

[@crdudley]

@@johnhodge5871 To be fair, cycling never was not ruined by corruption. But I see what you’re saying about the appearance of impropriety. But I’ve been watching and coaching (small time) baseball for a long time and I guess I trust in the joy and love of the game I see in kids’ faces. The vast majority, like us, grow up to be incorruptible people in whatever they do. Unless I’m wrong, Rose wasn’t betting on or against his own team. I think he belongs in the Hall. For me it’s the endless ads, now sometimes between pitches.