What You Need To Know To Profit From Recession

[@adambritain5774]

I've watched a lot of Chris's videos and appreciate his output, a lot. I just hope everyone else realises how lucky they are to get this advice for free! He's absolutely fascinating and is clearly not only knowledgable but also has a genuine passion for what he does. I love listening to people who have authority on their subject.

[@chrisbourne-retirementplanner]

That’s a very nice comment Adam I appreciate it a lot. To hear that people are getting value really gives me encouragement to make more videos. Thank you 👍🏼

[@garyrichardson8934]

@Adam Britain ~ This is a great comment and one that most viewers of Chris' videos don't say often enough - myself included. So to Chris I say on behalf of all viewers a very big thank you for passing on your great (and at times - entertaining 🤣) knowledge to us all.

[@educatethemonster6198]

Third…..cheated for second! 🤣 Outstanding again Chris, will watch a further half a dozen times before it sinks in! 👍🏽

[@chrisbourne-retirementplanner]

Haha thanks very much! It will be there whenever you need 😊

[@markfindlay8636]

Sorry l stole your thunder ⛈ and a little bit of your lightning 🌩

[@educatethemonster6198]

@@markfindlay8636 I’ll try and beat you next time, GL with your investments!

[@davefalls6703]

I am from America and find your videos excellent. I invest with vanguard as well. Keep up the good work.

[@chrisbourne-retirementplanner]

Hi Dave. Great to hear my videos are getting a bit of playtime on the other side of the pond 🙂 I appreciate you watching and glad you’re enjoying them!

[@nickfifield1]

Any data on alternative assets and how they behave against equities?

[@chrisbourne-retirementplanner]

Yes. Funnily enough I’m covering this in an upcoming video.

[@rogerandout808]

That 4th point is vital in a down turn - got to see the opportunity in this ... I remind myself that most global indexes return a positive result in a 20 year period. Just need a strong stomach at times!

[@chrisbourne-retirementplanner]

Absolutely Roger. I find it quite interesting that viewing figures on financial content across the board are down at the moment - it backs up the argument that most people still have that herd mentality and as much as they should see times like these as an opportunity, and periods of frenzied buying as a risk, they still don’t. That means there will always be opportunities for the astute investor.

[@dancroneuk]

Bostin video Chris!👍

[@chrisbourne-retirementplanner]

Cheers Danny 😄 Hope you’re well.

[@davyk2855]

Great video mate, I have money saved for a house deposit but want to grow it (willing to take small losses) as looking to buy 3-4 years from now. I'm not sure where to invest I was thinking VG LS 80% Equity? What would you recommend?

[@chrisbourne-retirementplanner]

Hi Davy. The problem you have is your timescale - it is very short in investment terms, which means anything with a high equity content carries a high risk. You are faced with a difficult choice and it is binary - remain in a low risk (cash) environment and accept that you will not get any growth (but you will know how much money you have). Or invest in a higher equity environment with the risk that values could fall to less than what you’ve invested just before you want to take the money out, with no time for those losses to be recovered. I’m afraid there isn’t a silver bullet here, the only thing you can do if you want to achieve better growth is be willing to extend your timescale to buy if necessary.

[@davyk2855]

@@chrisbourne-retirementplanner Hey Chris, thanks for taking the time to reply, i really appreciate it. Yes, I understand it needs time to mature. If I increased the time frame to 5 years would that be lesser risk v rewards?

[@chrisbourne-retirementplanner]

Yes, but only slightly. Every extra year you are willing to invest for reduces your risk and increases the probability of a positive return, but it’s only over very long periods (20 years) that you can be practically certain of a positive return. There has never been a 20 year period where an investment into the global stock market has produced a negative return. There have been some 10 year periods, even more 5 year periods, and lots of 1 year periods. If I’m honest, 5 years is still quite a short time frame for a high equity allocation, although history would tell us that you have around a 90%+ chance probability of getting a positive return. It depends on whether that 90% is enough of a probability, and whether you can tolerate the 10% probability of getting back less than you’ve invested.

[@georgegregory6538]

His Chris would you say life strategy 100 is as good as a global tracker fund for long term gains or is it more risky?

[@chrisbourne-retirementplanner]

Hi George. I wouldn’t say LS100 is any more risky. The only thing you have to be aware of is that it doesn’t exactly track the global market because it has a 25% overweight to the UK. If the UK outperforms other developed economies that will be helpful, but if it underperforms, it will drag it back.

[@georgegregory6538]

@@chrisbourne-retirementplanner oh Okay 😅 thank you for replying I appreciate in that case I'll continue to invest in LS100

[@Yuksta89]

Great vid. What are your thoughts on multiple ISAs to protect up to £85k of investment? What is the impact over the longer term? Possible vid on this subject?

[@chrisbourne-retirementplanner]

It’s certainly worth spreading cash holdings in a way that means FSCS limits aren’t exceeded, but you tend to get better protection through investment platforms due to the multi-layered nature of this protection. There is a good page on the Fidelity UK site explaining investor protection.

[@emilebichelberger7590]

Fifth but cheated for fourth :) Another video packed with useful information, I’m sure I’ll be coming back to rewatch it and make sure I’ve absorbed what I can. Thanks a bunch Chris.

[@chrisbourne-retirementplanner]

You’re welcome Emile. An honourable mention in fifth place 😉

[@chrisdaviesguitar]

how about doing one of these for people with limited funds, or maybe a small lump sum to invest?

[@chrisbourne-retirementplanner]

The same principles apply regardless of how much money you have to invest.

[@paulthorpe766]

Surprised you didn't suggest in inflationary scenario, hedging some your investments into physical assets eg Property, Gold, Wine, Vintage Cars, Guitars, Rolex etc etc as they usually grow inherently when there is inflationary pressure.

[@chrisbourne-retirementplanner]

Yes those things certainly can appreciate in value but for most people they couldn’t form part of an investment strategy for a number of reasons: 1. High entry costs and inability to drip feed contributions in. 2. Special expertise required to identify good investments - that either requires time and study from the individual or the need to employ an expert (more cost) 3. They’re unproductive in terms of yield - apart from property, none of them would produce a useable or reinvestable income. 4. Hard to liquidate and prices can be volatile.

[@paulthorpe766]

@@chrisbourne-retirementplanner Fair points indeed - income (lack of) is the main pain, but returns of 12-15% last 5 yrs so I can sell some to get income (bit like the daft dividend vs selling stocks conundrum that 'living off' dividend investors don't understand . Gold is pretty liquid btw these days. My main grip is that most people want great returns from 10O% passive investing... in something they can't hold and enjoy either. My pals and I put 25% of all Investments into these a/classes I mentioned as it's fun, you have to get clued up and you can enjoy it in the interim! Good vids btw - I like your clear fast speaking approach ✅

[@chrisbourne-retirementplanner]

Hi Paul. Sorry, I missed this reply. I personally am quite a fan of esoteric investments as a way of diversifying. I think if you want to get wealthy (or you already are), you have to think outside the box and look for things that aren’t mass marketed. Certainly becomes important when the normal tax wrappers are full.

[@davidgray3321]

Chris, you are a businessman, I am a history graduate , and since then have read huge amounts of material about the past, always winning is a fantasy, I understand why you say that, but you really should not mislead the public. No one knows what is going to happen next in life, and history does NOT repeat itself. Do the reading, you will se that. It does sometimes rhyme however.

[@chrisbourne-retirementplanner]

Teaching investment principles is not misleading. You must adopt a rules based approach to investing to overcome behavioural biases. What is your proposed alternative? You haven’t provided a cogent counter argument. We can’t know the future based on the past, but it is also the most reliable predictor. I deal in probabilities, and probability is firmly on your side that you will achieve a positive result by developing a strategy and sticking to it long term. I can tell you that I have done the reading… the information is based on 100+ years of market history through multiple economic cycles.

[@keith5663]

Informative and interesting as always. Intuitively increasing the percentage of equity held when there has been a crash seems the right thing to do however, isn't this marketing timing the market could go down a further 20% after increasing the equity holding. Reading different articles over the years seems to suggest altering your strategy as you go or market timing causes most retail investors to loose money, having said that it's certainly worth looking into.

[@chrisbourne-retirementplanner]

I think the main thing to remember is that setting an automatic reallocation is not the same as trying to time the market - you set pre-agreed actions when certain events occur. We know that 10% falls are far more common that 20% falls for example, so changing your allocation (within a specified range) when a 10% fall occurs, will from a statistical perspective provide a good stock buying opportunity more often than not. Vanguard actually use this approach in their LifeTarget range.

[@keith5663]

@@chrisbourne-retirementplanner Thank Chris, I think I will include this in my strategy

[@bonusball7053]

Thankyou for sharing your knowledge ,I’m like a fish out of water I’ve been reading ,watching,and listening but I don’t have a clue how to start investing any tips where to start please and gradually start to understand how it all works?Thanks.

[@chrisbourne-retirementplanner]

Hi there. Thanks for watching. There’s such a lot of information it really is difficult to know where to start. This video may help a little: m.kzbin.info/www/bejne/bafTc5yJnr2Iha8 I would also say that a good resource just to understand the terminology and basics of investing is investopedia. Vanguard also produce some very useful content discussing a variety of financial planning themes.

[@kwekuacheampong1464]

I take it that you are from the West Midlands Chris

[@chrisbourne-retirementplanner]

Yep… Wolverhampton born and bred

[@themaskedmoneysaver]

Another great, inspiring, informative video from you Chris. Thank you As you kinda said (and i believe) Good habits are key to success

[@chrisbourne-retirementplanner]

I’m glad you enjoyed it Anita. Good habits are definitely the key to success… maintaining them is the hard part, and those who persevere will be rewarded.

[@markfindlay8636]

Second but l was cheated for first place!

[@chrisbourne-retirementplanner]

Haha still a very creditable position Mark 😄

[@jamesc328]

Great content as usual, it might be nice in the next video to through the chart at 7mins i.e. the Bloomberg fund doing so well, compared to most of the market.

[@chrisbourne-retirementplanner]

Thanks for watching James, and thanks for feedback.

[@jamesparry5154]

Great video thanks! When rebalancing a portfolio from stocks to bonds and vice versa, aren't you effectively trying to time the market?

[@chrisbourne-retirementplanner]

Hi James. It’s more a case of setting an auto-response to specific market conditions rather than timing the market. You remain in the market regardless, but simply alter the allocation within set ranges to capitalise on the increased probability of higher stock market returns. Perhaps more important is resetting to core allocation when conditions have improved again.

[@jamesparry5154]

@@chrisbourne-retirementplanner That makes more sense, thank you for clarifying. What I thought you meant initially by rebalancing was to pivot existing investments between equities and bonds based on market conditions. But I think you're actually suggesting how to allocate future contributions rather than touching existing investments? Awesome video as always, keep up the good work!

[@chrisbourne-retirementplanner]

You would set an ‘auto pilot’ to go to the top end of your equity exposure range whenever the market falls by 10% let’s say. That would include all existing holdings. Statistically, there are far more 10% falls than there are 20% falls, so allocating in this way is more often than not an excellent buying opportunity. Vanguard actually practice this kind of dynamic allocation within their LifeTarget range of model portfolios.