When Will We Find the Extraterrestrials?

May 10, 2010, at the Linda Hall Library of Science, Engineering & Technology
New technologies for use in the search for extraterrestrial biology suggest that, despite the continued dearth of hard evidence for life elsewhere or signals from other societies, there is good reason to expect that success might not be far off - that within a few decades we might find evidence of sophisticated civilizations.
Seth Shostak, Senior Astronomer at the SETI Institute, explores why this is so, what contact would tell us, and what such a discovery would mean.

[@abumohandes4487]

I think Lawrence Krauss said it: "The universe is big, so things that are nearly impossible happen all the time"

[@tracycartwright978]

I find this so interesting and love Seth's intelligence and humour and open mindedness, people may think we are alone but to me that's egotistcal, there are too many stars, planets and galaxies out there and we are part of the universe, a star seed. I myself have joined an astronomers group and will be buying a telescope, i just love this topic.

[@zelmoziggy]

Thank you for leaving that last question in.

[@quantumcat7673]

That would have been nice that the Aliens made an appearance through some sort of portal and interrupted Seth to speak for themselves. Instant Nobel Prise for Seth cause he deserve it!

[@michellerenner6880]

Maybe some of his glitches were aliens.

[@quantumcat7673]

@@michellerenner6880 Yeah, perhaps aliens smaller than a eukaryotic cell...

[@cloudfloat4179]

Don't need much to impress someone like you?

[@guytouquet]

If intelligent life is anything like what's evolved here, its period of survival is shorter in relative terms--a million or so years out of three billion--than the blink of an eye. The chance that two such creatures should live at the same time would be minuscule.

[@oldionus]

That's a possibility, of course, but it ignores that the unit of cultural transmission is not necessarily the species. Humanity, for example, could well become biologically extinct but nonetheless bequeath its cultural heritage to successor species, whether biological or cybernetic. You can't realistically just ignore that contingency, which seems to me more likely than not. Civilization could well become a permanent feature of life as part of evolution on the longest time scales, just as multicelluarity, photosynthesis, genetic inheritance, and other important features of life that evolved once and then were transmitted to future life, not limited to a particular species.

[@expatexpat6531]

Very entertaining talk. A good way to spend an evening, if you were there.

[@binalith4898]

i get it

[@neddyladdy]

That was an interesting chat, with humour too.

[@binalith4898]

prove it.

[@sentryogmixmaster]

@@binalith4898 get over yourself...we all have.

[@koori3085]

Seth has a sense of purpose we should all wish to have. I believe he will succeed.

[@PauldeSwardt]

What a great science communicator....

[@quantumcat7673]

I somewhat get the impression that technological alien societies do not generally use electromagnetic waves to communicate or they are so efficient that they use only feeble signals that we cannot detect.

[@exasperated]

Yeah, there always seems to be a lot of "This is how we do things, so it must be how any other advanced species would do things too" when discussing detecting alien life.

[@kzrlgo]

What gives you this impression? Sounds more like you meant: "My guess is..."

[@bozo5632]

EM is super useful. It's not obvious what a replacement could be. But even if lots of ETs use lots of radio, we probably couldn't detect it. Stars are far away. We could only detect somebody very very close by, or somebody pointing a powerful transmitter deliberately straight at us. So we shouldn't expect to detect any radio messages either way.

[@bimmjim]

In 2015 we confirmed the existence of another spectrum. In just 8 years, we aleady have gravity telescopes operating. .. How many more speectums are there ?? We don't know.

[@acmelka]

Exactly! In a hundred years we will very probably have something better than EM. Some sub dimensional quantum mumbo jumbo. We make up things like Dyson spheres and whine when we don't see them. The hubris of saying "where is everyone?" When we have barely got the tech and resources to detect a civilization just like ours within 6-7 light years

[@leonstevens1382]

Excellent presentation!!!

[@gopherstate777]

How do you know the Aliens have not found us?

[@juniorlopez454]

True!

[@rightcheer5096]

Because we’re still here

[@vanikaghajanyan7760]

Indeed.

[@perspellman]

How can you say that they haven't?

[@MultiBikerboy1]

Keep up with what is happening in Congress. They have just been briefed that there have been back engineering projects on recovered material. There is reasonable speculation that this might be ‘Roswell’ being given up at last. See recent vids of Dr.Gary Nolan who outlines all this.

[@abumohandes4487]

Nice one. I had never heard of Seth Shostak. I missed out.

[@gren509]

Most of us are still looking for signs of much intelligent life on Earth - as judged by the last questioner ;-)

[@tarhunta2111]

😂.So true.

[@defuse56]

Being a guy who has spent the last 11 years teaching a university research writing group called "the paranormal," which is usually 75% UFOs, I've never agreed with Seth Shostak. Like most serious Ufo/Uap researchers, I just thought he needed to go do some homework. Nonetheless, I see he's developed an actual sense of humor, which makes him seem more imaginative than I'd thought. If all the skeptics were more like him, we'd be doing much better. I think he has at least removed himself from the list of "debunkers" and possibly has an open mind. I learned something here, so thank you Linda Hall Library for posting this! 👽

[@kzrlgo]

Never agreed on anything or something in particular?

[@MultiBikerboy1]

Seth Shostack has been SETI’s stand up comedian for decades. Unfortunately the whole of SETI has been built on a bank of sand and now the tide’s coming in. Think Dr. Gary Nolan and Avi Leob. They are the new kids on the block who are going to blow SETI’s minds.

[@mrdim362]

The great late Stanton T Friedman stated quote- "Silly Effort To Investigate"

[@MultiBikerboy1]

Indeed🧐👍🏻

[@Hawkwind485]

What's the rush?

[@MichaelKingsfordGray]

His rationale about the differences between male and female mating strategies are true, but only at the distal level. At the ultimate level, the difference is in parental investment, especially in the huge size differential in the gamete.

[@wjrs5]

I think it would be for the best if we never find them and they never find us. The Red Indians (the original Americans) feel that about these new folk that arrived about 500 years ago. The new folk did quite well out of it though.

[@patrickderp1044]

we point our telescope in any direction and find an endless number exoplanets and systems but not a single one of those exoplanets give the conditions for a perfect eclipse? how about we find one of those first before we even begin to think of extraterrestrial beings

[@quantumcat7673]

Seth, you're not that old, at least on a geological time scale.

[@johnashep109]

There are lots of people that say they've been abducted so how is it that they haven't been found

[@anonony9081]

Fun talk but I think he has a lot of poorly thought out premises presented in this video. For example you don't care what the ants are doing in your backyard but you would if they had the capability of blowing up your house. Also he assumes that the only way aliens would be able to detect us is through radio signals, but if they are significantly more advanced than us they may have ways of detecting life on planets that doesn't include radio waves or technological signals

[@MultiBikerboy1]

That’s enough of the common sense thank you.

[@roxannsnyder1351]

He is brilliant, takes jabs at NASA engineers, and all sorts of people. His jab about Michael Jackson was mean, yet he’s incredibly interesting & very knowledgeable.

[@RileyRampant]

MJ was a creepy freak. Shostak is a great guy, a great scientist.

[@patrickdempsey9706]

Love this s guy and he s hilarious

[@aiartrelaxation]

Omg he's the best speaker period.

[@ImPoStier]

Idk how to build a radio transmitter rip

[@dissaid]

Thanks! 😎

[@GeorgeGiann]

Apart from being so educated, he’s incredibly funny and *no* *one* is laughing!

[@zelmoziggy]

Chacun à son goût.

[@natswii]

I like Seth but he has been in the job too long. Seti needs fresh talent to bring new perspective and challenge assumptions on finding ET

[@ericb2017]

how old is this

[@bozo5632]

2010.

[@paulie2009]

"Ancient" but fun talk. Reminded me of the sad fate of Arecibo, but that was bound to happen one way or another. Not sure the computer on my desk is as smart as I am post 2020, but if the question was about reliable logic/mathematical computational power I was superseded long ago by a Commodore 64, if not my HP calculator. ;-)

[@MultiBikerboy1]

Please keep with what is happening in Congress. According to Dr.Gary Nolan of Stanford University some members of Congress have been briefed about legacy UFO back engineering projects.

[@mbopa06]

Graceful and intelligent, for more intelligent than I loved it

[@bealotcoolerifyoudid7217]

Entertainment and knowledge. Just perfection 🎉

[@oldionus]

The real question is not whether somewhere in the observable universe (or beyond) there are intelligent aliens. That's unanswerable at the moment, but certainly more than plausible. Set aside less complex life, which could well exist and even be quite common, and we would not (yet) be able to detect it. The real question is whether there are intelligent aliens still extant who are close enough to us that we can detect them, or ever communicate with them. No one knows. If they say they do, they'e ahead of their skis. My gut instinct is that they are common on the largest scales, but not on a scale where we could ever communicate. I think under the Fermi reasoning it's unlikely there is an advanced civilization within a few million light years. As the universe ages, the number should increase, but with the expansion of the universe we need to accept that it's likely, or at least not UNlikely, that we will NEVER be able to communicate with another civilization. Some people alive today may live to find out whether that's right or not.

[@chuckmaddison2924]

March 4, 2032, Thursday at 2 o'clock in the afternoon .

[@jaydinledford6990]

Excellent upload

[@kluk5017]

Let's back up and talk about Antarctica

[@angusmackaskill3035]

Minimum 60,000 years from now when Voyager II reaches the next closest star system. If not then probably never

[@austinzeagler2460]

they’ve been here

[@kensanity178]

Oh, come on, Veeger must destroy! We gotta trick Veeger into destroying itself!

[@sentryogmixmaster]

this guy is frikkin hilarious!

[@zapfanzapfan]

RIP Arecibo... Now the Chinese have the biggest dish in the world. You should rebuild Arecibo and now make it 2000 feet across. Or maybe 1776 feet for sentimental value...

[@subtropicalken1362]

When they find us so let’s stop looking for them.

[@MisterMister5893]

Seth hasn’t aged in the past 20 years. It doesn’t help that he always has the same hair colour, suit, ect. Is this from a few years ago or recent talk? Just as well, the topic is always the same as new discoveries are far and few but always entertaining.

[@bozo5632]

This is from 2010.

[@dh88k]

When? We would be infinitely lucky if extraterrestrials lived close enough to earth during our short time as a specie on the planet.

[@juniorlopez454]

It won't take that long. Just be a little more patient.

[@dh88k]

@@juniorlopez454 How long do you think that is? It's a blink of an eye in cosmic scale.

[@andykod77]

Is this recent ?

[@h83301]

not with that aspect ratio

[@LindaHallLibrary]

It's from a lecture at the Linda Hall Library in 2010.

[@andykod77]

@@LindaHallLibrary thanks

[@tfdtfdtfd]

Kepler launched in 2009, so this probably 2010 or so. Edit: He also said "ipod" not "ipad"....😂

[@leemichaels406]

Well 😇, Humans tend to shoot first and ask questions later. So probably we need to get past that phase.

[@darrellmay4502]

We won't find them, they will find Us!

[@juniorlopez454]

Probably, they already did! ❤❤

[@brucerosner3547]

I'm still looking for the zombies.

[@theephemeralglade1935]

Oh, Jesus, come on already! Hurry the Hell up and find some aliens! I am not going to live forever.

[@marcwatt]

Never. The spaces are too great minus some completely unforseeable tech... However life in the universe is the rule rather than exception. I'm sure... We need remember these alien life forms also must evolve

[@puirYorick]

Grandma at the end though...

[@elijahFree2000]

Maybe they are really small.

[@johnnycharisma162]

In any case in 2023 you’ve still found nothing. 2 sugars in mine.

[@jaydinledford6990]

He said a couple decades, you're about ten years early for that coffee still

[@johnnycharisma162]

@@jaydinledford6990 he actually said a couple of dozen years but essentially you’re right. So in the thirteen or so years since this this lecture they’ve found nitto. And they’ll find sweet fuck all in the next 10 years.

[@christiangeiselmann]

Rather will an angel be found dancing on a needle's point than an alien visiting earth.

[@danrayson]

The funny thing about intelligence is that if it is greater than yours it can choose whether you see it or not.

[@bozo5632]

Physics constrains everybody. Probably nothing can be done to eliminate waste heat, for instance. Besides, why should smarter, more capable ETs hide from inferiors? We don't hide from rabbits.

[@danrayson]

​@@bozo5632 Stirling engine? They perhaps don't just hide from us, they hide from each other?

[@lordemed1]

They are here...Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg.

[@alittleofeverything4190]

Dem jokes doe 😂

[@vanikaghajanyan7760]

Whoever is looking for will be found.

[@eaoryan639]

1 and only 1.

[@beekeeper7535]

We humans have no idea how old the earth is. Some humans don't know if there male or female.

[@sentryogmixmaster]

some humans don't even know when to use there, their or they're.

[@theplanebrain]

Like all good scientists, his jokes, although with great merit, simply do not land.

[@garysimpson1988]

NEVER!!

[@markantrobus8782]

Wormholes?

[@nightdogggg]

The correct answer is "NEVER".

[@mikekells156]

He is on something ❤

[@257rani]

❤❤❤❤❤❤❤

[@jackparker8686]

Don't forget methane excetera from Life only

[@MultiBikerboy1]

With respect don’t waste your time here. See ‘Dr. Gary Nolan’ of Stanford University and what he has said in the last couple of weeks. SETI have built their castle on a bank of sand and now the tide’s coming in.

[@fayadkhairallah2760]

Intra terrestrial templates for extra and ultra and alter terrestrial usages 😮

[@MultiBikerboy1]

Thank heavens for Seth’s sensible take on all this, we’ve all had enough of all those pilots, military and civilian, plus air traffic controllers making up all these stupid stories about tracking silent flying discs. As for Obama saying that there are ‘unidentified craft in our airspace and we don’t know what they are’ PAH!!!

[@bozo5632]

The Pentagon would never lie.

[@MultiBikerboy1]

@@bozo5632 exactly and nor would the White House, this was all cleared up completely with the ‘Phil Larson declaration’ in 2011, everyone knows Barry and Joe wouldn’t lie to us….now please can we all get back to the football game now.

[@Rob-eg8qc]

Our universe now expands within a black hole that is part of a parent universe so we will never know if there is intelligent life other than us bunch of crackpots.

[@257rani]

Nikola Tesla.Theory.

[@nicholasgreenway610]

This feels slightly dated at this point in 2023

[@garywalls5181]

There aren’t any extraterrestrials,they all invented AI that took them over.

[@gerrywood3584]

Aliens are our great creator

[@jasonking1284]

We will find them when we develop a warp drive. They will then reveal themselves.

[@chuckmaddison2924]

When they can see, we are no longer a threat to the cosmic environment with our rubbish and wars.

[@Lutz-lo7cl]

Seth needs to slow down.

[@robertdiehl1281]

Hubris

[@ChessNoobX]

The data from the navy pilots is credible...sensor data from multiple platforms plus observations...that's more than circumstantial...those objects were observed as to what they are...that's the million dollar question

[@bozo5632]

Pentagon would never lie, especially right before Congress voted on whether to fund Space Force.

[@mrdim362]

What makes you think they wish to meet you ?

[@wavydavy9816]

If you look at the (alleged) history of the formation of the Earth in relation to this solar system (collision with a large body to produce the moon, the movement of Jupiter into the asteroid belt which absorbed a lot of loose [planet killing?] material, and the fate's of Mars and Venus, amongst other things), and add to that the extinction events that have led to our (human's) rise to fame as it were, then it would appear to me that, even in a vast universe, the chances of replicating those events in that order, and so producing more intelligent species, are so slim that distances between said species would render the chances of meeting (even if both parties were actively searching) extremely slim (and that's being extremely generous). And we also apply human characteristics to any intelligent alien species which assume they would act exactly like we do on a philosiphical level (which is an absolutely preposterous assumption).

[@bozo5632]

Maybe we did it the hard way. Maybe all of those events were setbacks. Maybe Earth is on the low end of habitability. No data exists to refute it.

[@wavydavy9816]

@@bozo5632 We have plenty of data. We have identified lots of ex-planets as well as sending various probes to the planets we can get to and to this day there is absolutely no evidence to suggest other life exists anywhere. You can theorise and hope but that doesn't change the current state of affairs 🤷‍♂️

[@bozo5632]

@@wavydavy9816 I don't think you understand how little we know. There could be life on Mars for all we know.

[@wavydavy9816]

@@bozo5632Yes there might be. There might be life of some kind on each planet in the solar system, but so far there's no evidence to support that theory. It's also very unlikely when you compare those planets to Earth. Jesus might also have been the son of God, but I sincerely doubt that theory too.

[@zdzislawmeglicki2262]

Hallo! Here I am! Anybody interested?

[@wretch1]

Look in the Whitehouse

[@AndyT-np8mm]

The advantage for us is that our planet is in a solar system that arose fairly early in the history of the universe. If the Earth is four billion years old, and the universe 13 billion, it's an enormous clue. We are among the earliest.

[@bozo5632]

The previous 9 billion years don't count.

[@AndyT-np8mm]

@@bozo5632 They do. But the universe is expected to endure for 100 trillion years.

[@grahamsowerby6087]

Only when they find us !

[@jameshadaway8621]

extra terrestrial is land, the reason elders or higher entities have become more apparent is due to nuclear weapons and war, but also the corporations study the shapes of the objects to back engineer and dont mind the cover ups or whatever drama can take attention away from knowledge and technology, and to be honest many will feel they have been left behind and that is why the outward manifestations.

[@kensanity178]

Some people just want to sound like an intellectual, but they dont usually fool anyone.

[@philipdobbins2769]

If and when they are ready they will let us know.

[@257rani]

👽👾

[@markoliver-ww9ld]

2 minutes in 😴

[@konne16]

Same here

[@jaydinledford6990]

I thought he was witty and amusing

[@ChessNoobX]

As for the assumption that they should be 30 light years from here...that's assuming they use the same modes of propulsion as we do...this guy...I can have him for breakfast in any debate lol...I'm not saying UAP=alien...but it's definitely an interesting topic cause we don't know what or who created those objects...

[@hemanag1020]

I bet you could. This clown depends on keeping waters muddy. I find his weird attempted humour more just confusing.

[@CBirds]

Cringe

[@bozo5632]

What objects? We don't know there are objects. The reason for assuming they're 30 LY away is that's about the maximum time/distance for ET to hear our radio and for us to receive a reply. Chances are probably very low of a technological ET within 30 LY radius, or even 3000 LY.

[@Moto_Medics]

1:08:15 😂

[@paultaylor7947]

We wont

[@oforkya]

Looking 4 intelligent life in the universe and doing it in California. C the irony? 😆 🤣 😂 😹 😆 🤣

[@mrdim362]

They are coming They are coming and so is Christmas. Wishers, Hoppers and dreamers.

[@808bigisland]

Seen their ships 17x. Amazing tech. Alien politics. They are here for a long time. Various species and AI and not all are friendly and one species is a caretaker….or owns Earth.

[@austinzeagler2460]

greys are ai right?

[@kluk5017]

Salesman? ....

[@thomasbullock6934]

2027-28. That’s the Timeframe of disclosure. It’s gonna happen. Others are talking about this date.

[@Anakinuk007]

Good point about the ants. If we are regarded as ants warring with each other, and our planet is similar to X of millions in the universe as a whole - are we worth bothering with? If your an advanced race capable of interstellar space travel, your society is likely socially advanced as well. So if you don’t need Earths resources and we are too primitive then why bother with us? However it’s relatively clear through ancient archaeology we have been visited numerous times. Whether they are still here or pop in from time to time is anyone’s guess. Given our technology has jumped tremendously in the last 100yrs plus, I don’t think it is any coincidence or chance luck.

[@deeb4351]

@TheCaptain: ur comment just made me think, could u imagine if an advanced race came here looking to mine resources, (as we do to less technological societies on Earth.) Then they see all the pollution, and say, "let's get out of here! This place is a junk heap!" And presto! Our thoughtless ways have saved us from invasion!

[@bozo5632]

​@@deeb4351 We study ants. ET would probably be interested in us. (But there's no particular reason to think they've been here.)

[@blklagoon76]

Sounds like he had too much caffeine!

[@Rickets1911]

We already have