Where is the Oil Price Going in 2024 - Josh Young and James Connor

Josh Young is the Chief Investment Officer of Bison Interest, an investment fund based in Houston, Texas and focused on energy.
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[@BloorStreetCapital]

Tell me where oil is going and I will tell you where the economy is going (my quote not Josh's). I hope you enjoy this discussion with Josh Young as we discuss where the oil price is going in 2024 (he's bullish on oil).

[@jimallen833]

Thanks Jimmy and Josh! His predictions on oil price seem hyperbolic but time will tell. If oil does go to $100 or higher this economy is going in the shitter.

[@BloorStreetCapital]

Thanks for the comment Jim and for taking the time to view our content!

[@BloorStreetCapital]

@@j.skidmore Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! Yes higher oil prices will cause great havoc on average consumers.

[@kortyEdna825]

High prices for everything have severely affected my plan. I'm concerned if people who went through the 2008 financial crisis had an easier time than I am having now. The stock market is worrying me as my income has decreased, and I fear I won't have enough savings for retirement since I can't contribute as much as before.

[@Pamela.jess.245]

It's a delicate season now, so you can do little or nothing on your own. Hence I will suggest you get yourself a professional that can provide you with entry and exit points on the securities you focus on.

[@Pamela.jess.245]

Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her resume.

[@user-tw2oe6zi6q]

Josh is WRONG on 3 points. One, any administration rather it was a D or an R would have lowered the SPR for political considerations any administration an R or a D would have done that for their political benefit. The SPR was created in the 1970s as a result of the oil embargo and its purpose is to be a reserve to help the U.S. economy during difficult times. Well these are difficult times and that's what the SPR is for so its a no brainer that we would use it now. On another point the U.S. is a net oil exporter this is not the 1970s with the Permian we have plenty of oil so no urgent need to refile it now. Two, with the Fed selling bonds and raising the interest rates, oil companies just like many other companies, decided to take its revenue and buy bonds at a higher interest rate return five percent as opposed to invest it into new rigs. That is the reason for the decline in rig counts. If Josh wants to be taken seriously and if anyone should give any serous consideration to what Josh is saying he should be honest about the true state of things and not let his political leanings color his analysis. Three, This is probably over Joshes head I'm sure he doesn't get this but if there is a benefit to using more oil from Venezuela and Iran it is that our oil stays in the ground for when we need it. We can use their oil and that will keep ours in the cheapest SPR in the world right in the ground where it wont cost us a dime to store it. By using these other countries oil it will put of peak oil in the U.S. for another generation or two or three or more. Oil will be within the sweet spot $70 to $80 to at most $90 by the end of the year. With coming declining interest rates (coming Fed rate cuts) the cost of borrowing for rigs as well as the incentive to use revenue to buy bonds will decline leading to an increase in investment in rigs and increasing the rig count. Russian oil will continue to decline as the infrastructure continue to deteriorate due to the lack of foreign know how and technology and may potentially see a major catastrophe in their ability to produce raw crude. India will begin to move away from Russian crude as Russia begins to remove the discounts they were offering them and as Russia begins to insist upon payment in Chines renminbi. India will buy more and more raw crude from Venezuela and have much of it refined in U.S. refineries. Natural Gas prices will remain steady through out the year.

[@BloorStreetCapital]

Thanks for the very detailed comment and for taking the time to view our content! You raised some very interesting points about Russia's production falling behind due to its lack of investment and India's migration toward Venezuela. This is why I find the oil market the most interesting of all commodities...the geopolitics!

[@yamajules1397]

So…it could go up a lot or it could go down a fair bit. I guess there’s a lot of uncertainty. How long is short term, medium term, medium to long term and liking term?

[@BloorStreetCapital]

Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content!

[@spotsonadog]

Very interesting!!! Thankyou!

[@BloorStreetCapital]

Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content!

[@baibamennika4480]

If others before suppressed nations will enter oil market, price can go even more down

[@dotagedrain7051]

You talking about European nations? Invaders nations..

[@BloorStreetCapital]

Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content!

[@SzymonStas]

Rising oil prices means rising inflation. Rising inflation means a dead bond market. It’s zero surprise that the US wants lower oil prices. Yes some people will make money if oil prices rise but ultimately it’s bad for the economy.

[@WuWuHana]

It's not warm now

[@BloorStreetCapital]

Thanks for the comment Wendy and for taking the time to view our content! You go that right! I'm in Canada freezing my butt off!

[@dotagedrain7051]

$300.... lol... what type of drugs you on.... im suprise it goes to $100... if oil tok high no one will buy it...unless some crazy happen .. but we learn our lessons

[@BloorStreetCapital]

Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! Yes $300 does seem somewhat high especially when it's trading at $70 but keep in mind during the oil embargo of the 1970's oil went from $3 to $11 in a matter of months.

[@enkadude]

@@BloorStreetCapital I lost respect for Josh when he said that, as at those levels, the entire world would economically collapse. Companies can still make money at $75-80 WTI without causing chaos in the markets.

[@BloorStreetCapital]

@@enkadude Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content!

[@stphkp889]

I guess English and writing are not the long suit here .

[@KNIGHTRACEDOTCOM]

Asia to Europe route will just increase price of oil

[@BloorStreetCapital]

Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! Yes it will! What will happen to the economy if oil rips to $100!

[@KNIGHTRACEDOTCOM]

I do not think it will be a huge change economy has to go down, @@BloorStreetCapital

[@andrewyarnot5911]

This time next year will probably still be in the middle of a n extremely hard landing IE recession. Not at all good for oil.

[@BloorStreetCapital]

Thanks for the comment Andrew and for taking the time to view our content! Yes there are conflicting signs right now with the oil price in the low $70s. Is it there because the economy is slowing and this is the beginning of a further fall?

[@renewableinvesments6826]

Oil is going lower not higher for a multitude of reasons. Firstly, the economy is going into a recession and this will lead to lower demand which will lead to lower prices. Even if the economy doesn't go into recession in 2024, the government will do whatever they can to keep it low whether it be releasing SPR or deals with countries like Venezuela or Iran or even Russia. Another factor the guest did not discuss was the global move toward greenification. This is not just a passing fad, this is a tsunami. Nuclear energy, EVs, SMRs will all eventually take over or replace the need for carbon. Night over night of course but it's coming.

[@BloorStreetCapital]

Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! Let's hope the price of oil stays low. Any more inflation will kill me!

[@MarkJensen-se8nn]

*Re: (1/2) Where is the Oil Price Going in 2024 - 2025* Crude Oil: UK Brent/WTI Light Sweet The drilling rig count is drifting down due to the preferred way of “horizonal drilling”. Higher efficiency levels thru horizonal drilling are attained. Legacy “vertical” driller rigs are simply being sidelined or under utilized. M&A activity regarding “private” and public Permian players lead to the upward production pace which lead to healthy forward moving surpluses. e.g. EIA data: 12.22 thru 07.23 (elevated production levels within the 5 year range) The March 2023 “perceived” banking crisis spooked the energy & energy related commodity market. E.g. sell off. This narrative of a “metastasize” banking crisis was echoed by institutional short sellers. Institutional short sellers hammered down the regional banking sector, the energy sector and the energy related commodities sector. The equity and future commodity prices have since recovered somewhat. e.g. the new floor base price for WTI appears around $71.00. Regards-

[@BloorStreetCapital]

Thanks for the detailed comments Mark! You raise some interesting points and it does appear the floor for oil is in the low $70s. Who else would you like to see interviewed on our channel?

[@MarkJensen-se8nn]

@@BloorStreetCapital *Re: Who else would you like to see interviewed on our channel?* _Thank you for the kind words._ *Eric Nuttall* CIM | Partner, Senior Portfolio Manager | Energy ◼ _Previous Portfolio Manager @ Sprott Asset Management LP_ ◼ _Appearances on both Bloomberg & CNBC_ Always a solid guest. Regards -

[@MarkJensen-se8nn]

*Re: (2/2) Where is the Oil Price Going in 2024 - 2025* No recession for 2024 & 2025. Yet, the “pundits” continue to broadcast their message to influence their trade or short position-s. Global crude oil consumption continues to robust. China’s economy has “bottomed” out. India’s consumption continues to be robust. China’s economy will slowly rebound. Saudi Arabia will not flood the market. Their “expanded” capacity plans have been permanently suspended. Other internal domestic projects will be funded first hand. e.g. the line (urban living environment-s) Angola: n/a Russia: Production will drift downward starting H2 2024. Iran: Sanctions to tighten up moving forward. SPR: No more Energy Department sales. Refilling @ a tepid pace. 2024 -2025: (Threshold Highs) *UK Brent:* $96.00 *US WTI:* $93.00 Regards -

[@missunique65]

IOW he is as clueless as my dog

[@missunique65]

he is wrong on so many counts - where do you find these people

[@BloorStreetCapital]

Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! What exactly do you disagree with? Who would you like to hear from?