Where To Invest In 2023

It’s time to start thinking about your portfolio in 2023, but with so much negative news out there it’s difficult to know what to invest in. In this video, I start off by showing you some broker forecasts for the year ahead. I then look across different asset classes, sectors and countries to see where we can find value. And finally, I draw the video to a close by suggesting some possible tilts for your portfolio in 2023.
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Timestamps
00:00 Introduction
00:36 Analyst Forecasts: S&P 500
02:28 US Equity Valuation
05:24 US Earnings
07:05 Country Valuation
09:36 US Sectors
10:27 Monetary Policy
14:01 Corporate Bonds
15:33 Gold
17:13 Asset Classes in the Decade Ahead
19:15 Don’t Neglect Base Rates!
20:14 Conclusion
Where Else You Can Find Me
🎧You can check out my weekly podcast all about investing here many-happy-returns.captivate....
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DISCLAIMER
All information is given for educational purposes and is not financial advice. Ramin does not provide recommendations and is not responsible for investment actions taken by viewers. Figures that are quoted refer to the past and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
#StockMarket #Investing #PensionCraft

[@Pensioncraft]

Looking for a home for your ISA? Our friends at InvestEngine are offering a £25 bonus when you invest at least £100 (Ts&Cs apply) investengine.pxf.io/AoxaPN If you decide to register using this link then we will also receive a small commission. Capital at risk. InvestEngine (UK) Limited is Authorised and Regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 801128)

[@ryandaley655]

Biggest lesson i learnt in 2022 in the stock market is that nobody knows what is going to happen next, so practice some humility and follow a strategy with a long term edge.

[@yvonnejoordan]

Uncertainty... it took me 5 years to stop trying to predict what bout to happen in market based on charts studying, cause you never know. not having a mentor cost me 5 years of pain I learn to go we’re the market is wanting to go and keep it simple with discipline.

[@michaelterry4394]

He who has the gold makes the rules. The Big boys away the not. Humility is a definite plus. The more I know the less I know. Thank you

[@mattm597]

It's all just (at best) an educated guess.

[@michaelterry4394]

The market will Fluctuate. Lol Murphy's law if anything could go wrong it will. Thank you

[@johnbeekman8931]

Yeah that was obvious from the graph wth the predictions - all way off

[@wunfungchan2649]

Thanks pension craft for all of your insight throughout the year. Wishing you and yours prosperity and good health in the new year.

[@stevo948]

You're my favourite financial KZbinr. I've been a bear whose only recently come of hibernation (100% cash), I think you're very level headed with a long term view saying that you've accelerated your equity drip feed, right after demonstrating how weak everything looks for 2023. Simple fact is you need to be DCAing equity long term. Thank you for this prudent advice

[@fupopanda]

I follow a LOT of financial market YT channels, and yours is, in my opinion, the best. Thanks for what you do, and I hope you keep doing it. I also hope you keep gaining subscribers, and I'll keep doing what I can to give you word-of-mouth exposure.

[@timwood101]

Thanks Ramin, balanced as always. Rational voice in a volatile world!

[@Pensioncraft]

Thanks for listening @timwood101

[@garydurn3452]

Tremendous value add analysis and perfectly timed - very much appreciated.

[@Pensioncraft]

Glad you enjoyed it @Gary Durn

[@peterramsay1767]

I am glad I made productive decisions about my finances that changed my life forever. I am living in Vancouver Canada, bought my second house in September and hoping to retire next year at 50 if things keep going smoothly for me

[@anindadatta164]

Excellent presentation. Probably investors rushed to HY bonds thinking inflation would be tamed with a soft landing and there would be no recession.

[@johanvrolijk4079]

Excellent video and presentation. Thank you very much.

[@Pensioncraft]

Glad you liked it @Johan Vrolijk

[@Avve22]

A lot of things to digest .... Wow.. Great Info...

[@nikolaoslazaris7719]

Excellent video as always Ramin! Very clear and concise.

[@Pensioncraft]

Much appreciated @Nikolaos Lazaris

[@mjwmontgomery]

Thanks. So many scary forecasts predicting a 1930s recession

[@iangilbert7722]

Great video, the graphs were helpful too 😊 Might look at government bonds, healthcare and retail stocks

[@Pensioncraft]

Glad it was helpful @Ian Gilbert

[@mimikhan9546]

Cracked phone screen. Saving money for investment.

[@ebrahimhabib477]

In fact as always your episodes are very professional and informative Thanks for your efforts

[@Pensioncraft]

Glad you like them @ebrahim habib

[@alpinismutilitar3886]

​@@Pensioncraft INDEX: Hours Worked to Buy The S&P 500 is in Bubble !

[@PrepFolders]

Many thanks for the awesome information. Could you shed some light on silver as well?

[@ivan-kaschenko]

Great research and summary, thanks!

[@Pensioncraft]

Glad you enjoyed it @Ivan Kaschenko / Иван Кащенко

[@MD-hd1cp]

I appreciate your info. Liked & subscribed 👍

[@Pensioncraft]

Thanks for the sub! @M D

[@outdoorsman1140]

Thanks Ramin. So the Vanguard outlook is that US equities are going to act as a drag on investments. Unfortunately, Vanguard don’t offer a global All-World ex-US or global Developed World ex-US ETF on their UK website, which is where UK ISAs/SIPPs etc. might be held. US equities are a major percentage of the Vanguard global equity ETFs.

[@driesanalog4187]

Thanks a lot!

[@Pensioncraft]

You're welcome @Dries Analog

[@anindadatta164]

the high return sjown by turkish stock index is based on local currency terms or dollar terms.

[@badass6656]

They are really asking 'what will go up this year'. Good video and nice focus on the fundamentals and value.

[@Pensioncraft]

Yes! Thank you @Bad Ass

[@askjussi]

I am mostly investing in REITs. They are historically cheap right now and REITs have actually materially outperformed private real estate investments over long time periods according to several studies. They generally outperform by 2-4% per year and this is because they enjoy significant economies of scale, develop their own properties, earn profits from other real estate-related profits, skip transaction fees, and many other reasons. I will soon post a video on this topic. Thanks for the great video!

[@sandip58kawade]

Hi , I am from India 🇮🇳 namaste 🙏..i have been watching your videos since some time..they are very informative .good learning keep sharing more bout us and global mkt

[@Pensioncraft]

Thank you so much 🙂 @sandy kawade

[@johnny-S]

I would be interested to know how property performed against inflation vs. equties, and bonds over the period shown in the video

[@Backtoreality1873]

Thankyou Ramin. My takeaway is to keep investing in stocks (DCA) and have a mix of value and growth.

[@Pensioncraft]

Thanks for sharing @Jason Etherington

[@alexdoherty6810]

Great video as always, personally I'm hedging my bets, recently bought into Scottish Mortgage after the 50% loss this year, but also Troy Trojan to add stability & exposure to gold & bonds.

[@Pensioncraft]

Thanks for sharing @Alex Doherty

[@eweng903]

If you look at Vanguard Outlook I would point out that the variance is to such an extent that over the next ten years cash could outperform any bonds you picked. As for equity, again the variance is so large that any equity class could potentially outperform or underperform any another.

[@shannonoliver7992]

Golden Butterfly portfolio for the win!

[@DailyDividends]

You timed this video very nicely with the dip in both the stock and crypto markets, excellent 👌 discounts for all

[@Luke-kp1px]

its going down more

[@Pensioncraft]

Appreciate it @The Daily Dividends Channel

[@wread1982]

Thermos, Avalon, blackberry and Enron are my only 4 holdings, is my portfolio a good one? Thanks

[@rightangletriangle3188]

Thanks for sharing. Good summary of data pulled from many sources. I'll stay in defensive stocks with decent dividend yields especially healthcare, T-bills or CDs with duration less than 12 months and swing trade SPY for bear market rally when it gets depressed. Will build some positions in TLT as a recession hedge. Don't need to front run the Fed, when Fed starts dropping rates, then will rotate some of the dividend stocks back to growth stocks I like. For bonds will stay in short duration Treasury. The high-risk bond premium is not paid enough, and the BBB rated bonds may get re-rated to junk as recession risk is high, so I'll stay out of that part of the credit market.

[@bentp4891]

My main takeaway from this is that analysts haven't got a clue

[@itsyakidfly1]

Hi could you please tell me a good emerging market stock is good to buy from vanguard. Thanks

[@sulimannoorkp1087]

Great video. Please make a video on stocks prop firms

[@Pensioncraft]

Noted and glad you enjoyed it @Suliman Noor kp

[@vcash1112]

Oil & Brazilian stocks!✅

[@dubsdolby9437]

Basically, in a nutshell, nobody really knows what's gona happen in 2023 graphs or no graphs 📊 it's all guess work

[@christoph8429]

@pensionCraft is it possible to do this video again ? I loved this. Especially the "Country Valuation" part was super interesting.

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi @christoph8429 I make them every year. Here is the last one is published kzbin.info/www/bejne/l3TVY3quiLKtgpI Thanks Ramin

[@FedtTony]

straddle strategy around 4200 yes?

[@ivailoruikov5558]

Great analysis, thanks!

[@Pensioncraft]

My pleasure @Ivailo Ruikov

[@francesconesta6058]

What about long term Treasuries ETFs? If the FED has defined a ceiling for the rates and the question is more for how long they will keep the rates high, long term treasury ETFs like TLT might have reached the bottom already. If inflation goes down and FED pivots they will go up with equities. If there is a recession they will go up as well. The only negative scenario is if inflation goes up again and the FED reviews their targets but seems very unlikely given the current data. Any thoughts?

[@edan2629]

2022 has been quite a good year for me being a contrarian. Goodluck everybody in 2023. will still hold high % in cash. hopefully will strike a good bargain.

[@Pensioncraft]

Well done E Dan! Here's to even better returns in 2023 Ramin.

[@evilzzzability]

It's incredible that in the last 3 years the actual performance fell outside the analysts' entire range of forecast each year -- they are worse than useless

[@sandorvarga.6982]

SUCCESS.

[@andyf10]

Not really unless you think any of them could have predicted COVID.

[@miavatarful]

The sad thing is. The Covid Pandemic was easily predictable if you had access to media sources outside the United States. I new a massive Pandemic was going to hit in October 2019.

[@miavatarful]

Other countries new that there was a massive outbreak that summer.

[@mmabagain]

@@andyf10 Covid was a political tool. I had it and it was less severe than other flu bugs I've had. There was no healthcare reason to shut down the worlds economy.

[@Asstronauts93]

if us returns are that low for the next 10 years its going to be great to accumulate

[@kikolatulipe]

2023 , money under the mattress !

[@saileshdahal3794]

The best strategy for the next few years is probably to accumulate small cap value. Thoughts?

[@HawkeyeJmf]

What is the correlation between Fed Deficits and S & P growth?

[@DaystarHiker]

So Vanguard projects bond returns about as high as stocks with 1/4 the volatility.

[@george6977]

Regarding Vanguards forecast 10 year returns, given that Global equities ex US comprises Global Developed markets equities + Emerging market equities how can the forecast return for global equities ex US be greater than the sum of its parts?

[@mahendrajasubhojani6374]

What is the expected gbp to usd rate in 2023

[@spaceship30]

New subscriber here, I'm 50 and don't plan on retiring for another 5 years, my pension fund of 500k is fully invested in stocks, and the value of the fund has dropped 20% in the past 12 months. Would you advise switching some of the funds out of stocks into less risky assets, or should I sit tight and ride the storm for another year, given that I have another 5 years before retirement?

[@nunesandrew4198]

get a pension advisor and tell them what you want, its better to spend £500 on consultations than be walking in the unknown...

[@michaelfelli7661]

You need to correlate US Fed rates with housing. How high it goes and when it pauses depends on when the rates will bring housing down. Then, you can see how that correlates with stocks. I have the US Fed raising rates to 5.75 (0.5, 0.5, 0.25, 0.25) and then pausing until housing crashes. How long? Hard to tell. In 2008, housing didn't bottom until 2010. So, minimally, I see the Fed holding rates at 5.75 through all of 2023 and into the first quarter of 2024. Only when housing crashes, will you see any rate cut.

[@robertcliffort2354]

great

[@michaelfelli7661]

Buy KMB stocks (makers of Depends diapers for adults)... People are going to need them in 2023.

[@chimpanzeelam369]

can talk about Dividend stock?

[@nim549]

'23 will be volatile year for equities, showing resilience, but the Hike in interest rates will take a toll which will be reflecting in "24 earnings. So 23 will be a camouflaged year..

[@j4jjj]

Very interested in China over the next 18 months. Its so cheap

[@moominjuice2]

Great video as always. Would love to see some more about commodities and how they tend to historically fare in these sorts of conditions.

[@craiglawrance5342]

Value stocks continue to do well. The inflation beast will be harder to tame in UK than US as we import so much of everything

[@skwoogy64]

But a lot of FTSE 100 companies have global earnings

[@fredatlas4396]

And the Bank of England isn't raising interest rates fast enough, I think they are supporting our tory government & don't want to hinder the con parties election chances. But if the con-servatives remain in power our economy ain't going anywhere soon

[@fengjikangqiang]

Yes gold n sliver doesn't give dividend so I just buy the shares of largest miners in these 2 metals, BARRICK GOLD & Majesty Sliver.

[@mattsennett]

I think Q4 / Q1 earnings coupled with higher interest rates from all central banks will create a difficult first half of 23 for equities. The market will then react to lower inflation and the eventual pivot, more likely in early 24, where interest rates are concerned. This creates a flat year overall for the S&P but a far from stable one!!

[@tastypymp1287]

Flat? Optimistic. At best.

[@mimikhan9546]

Shame, I bought more S&P, now it’s gone down further. I need to find more money 💰. And reinvest.🎉

[@stevie3452]

Time to lever up guys

[@tastypymp1287]

You sound like a gambler.

[@keremtanyes7737]

I'm DCAing in LibertonCorp as well. ETH heavier DCA and ALGO. I'm taking your advice and starting Google tomorrow with a 50 dollar purchase and continuing Microsoft and Apple. VTI and VOO on another app and longterm portfolio. Here we go family!

[@brightbluesmurf]

I’m drip feeding into UK equities myself. Plenty of cheap stock paying a nice yield. Might be tempted to invest in a Nasdaq and S&P tracker to get exposure to the US once l start to see the FED scaling down the rate increases.

[@asmerom3025]

A good way into US Tech is iitu.

[@brightbluesmurf]

@@asmerom3025 I was thinking CNDX

[@nathanfmaddock]

Where can I open a business account where I can invest my companies spare cash? Vanguard only has personal accounts

[@martinfarrow2825]

Invest engine

[@mda99das]

There are a lot of NRI Brits, could you do something as India is looking at a very attractive investment long term...

[@future62]

Are annual portfolio changes really necessary for younger folks with timelines measured in decades? Outside of rebalancing I'm not selling anything. SPY might suck next year but that's just a year of cheap buying.

[@MagicNash89]

Do banks or general analysts ever forecast the S^P going DOWN the next year? 😅 (expect maybe after an actual huge momental crash)

[@doodleknowledge]

go after assets not liabilities

[@64syth76]

As an investor in Australia I follow your site to know what is happening globally. I like the sound of Pensioncraft but I am not a sophisticated investor and dont really know whether it is suitable outside the UK/US investment markets. What is your view on such investors - stay with a local financial advisor or DIY?

[@andyf10]

Forget the charts, you have to look at Geo-politics for 2023 - That means defence, oil and gas, financials, infrastructure. Most other stuff is not going to deliver.

[@mda99das]

One thing to consider for Brits is that if we want to buy US stocks is the exchange rate. Where is the sweet spot, where Dollar weakens and equity valuations fall? DXY has an inverse relation to the US equity markets. We are looking at the TCO ie total cost of ownership...

[@johna9851]

In the near term the ETFs covering the S&P 500 and ASX top 20 are attractive. These sell options and using Pensioncraft valuations appear to provide a high rate of distribution. Some examples are UMAX and YMAX (Beta Shares) on the Australian ASX. They are less likely to take severe punishment in a recession.

[@lakefiftyseven]

Some important questions that you could answer are .......is printing money sustainable in the next year or so?, how will a slowing economy react to no money printing ? if we have an earnings recession how will that affect money printing? during a global recession will the dollar fall in value and will that affect the US's ability to print more money?........and last what would be the affect of not printing more dollars be?......... Truly since the GFC money printing fix have we even had a recession?

[@loutol2952]

All very intelligent analysis. However simply buy, DCA and hold a low cost broad based index over the long term and you will be just fine. This what those who have done it have advised. Nobody knows what the markets will do. If you day trade then all these analysis may be of use. For long term investors however this is really not useful. My thoughts at least. 😊

[@evolassunglasses4673]

Be interested to hear from people in the comments, should people start to increase their pension contributions (say they are age 50 now).

[@george6977]

👍

[@elliotbullman4765]

I got out my clients out of the markets 18 months ago and I switched them into senior secured, asset backed corporate bonds. One-year options pay 10% fixed, 2-year terms pay 11%, and 3-year terms pay 12%. My clients are much happier with this option rather than second guessing the markets. Market volatility is going to be around for a while and it´s probably going to get worse before it gets better. Client´s money is segregated and held in custody with Pershing. (43 trillion under administration).

[@terrybrown3486]

I cannot find any corporate bonds paying those sort of returns! This channel cannot either.

[@elliotbullman4765]

@@terrybrown3486 Hi Terry, I will be happy to share the prospectuses and fact sheets with you.

[@presterjohn71]

@@terrybrown3486 It is almost certainly a scam of some sort.

[@stevo728822]

After a slump, copper prices have levelled off and started rising. Copper prices are the canary in the coal mine for the global economy.

[@tastypymp1287]

Ramin. Why don't you show the last forecasts for this year? I tell you what, I'll do it for you. Estimates by top firms for the S&P500 for close of 2022 ranged from 5330 to 4400. Even the lowest estimate is likely to be more than 10% off the reality. Estimates are meaningless.

[@oblong3039]

he did show on the graph at 1:20, they were way off in the zones you mentioned.

[@hakanas5681]

It makes sense, BTC and crypto is off helping to regulate, rather than pretend it won't ever happen. The big institutions getting in is the catalyst that will launch us into the stratosphere. Most people don't like change but after the change is made they grow used to it and it becomes a non issue usually because their fears never materialize. The projects that initiated the process of regulation have not been ruined, they got involved in setting guidelines and helping the regulators understand the crypto space. I’d get involved more knowing that I have made over 7 btc and 15ETH from day-trade with Liberton Corp in few weeks.

[@arigutman]

Value and dividend stocks in my opinion. 2023 will very likely bring a recession and therefore your best bet becomes how to survive it... Moreover, when and if a recession hits double down on value and dividend stocks!

[@jimbojimbo6873]

Yh

[@tastypymp1287]

Are you sure about energy being the big saviour of the US market Ramin? It's not the big cog in the US machine. Tech is the big money earner. You know that.

[@MrReganator]

Appreciate the channel but you've got to do something about the scam comment threads. Your videos are riddled with them.

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi JayReg I run a spam filter every day github.com/ThioJoe/YT-Spammer-Purge and new "brokers" pop up every day. We also get a clone of our channel almost every day. There's only so much we can dedicate in terms of resources to get rid of the spam. I think KZbin should make it more difficult but until that happens we're doing the best we can. Thanks, Ramin

[@MrReganator]

@@Pensioncraft Sorry to hear you're still having issues with the bots despite the tool. I'm quite young and can spot them easily, but I imagine a channel focussed on pensions will attract a lot of older and less 'internet-literate' viewers who may be more susceptible to such scams. Hopefully YT can do more.

[@tastypymp1287]

ETF capitulation claims by Eric Balchunas need to be compared to Yardenis fund flows, which suggest ETFs are still net positive. Inversed ETFs might be a mere hedging strategy. These guys are part of the investment industrial complex and it's their JOB to keep you buying.

[@muffemod]

2021 Aswath Damodaran got his shit pushed in

[@tastypymp1287]

?

[@muffemod]

@@tastypymp1287 Out of all the experts for valuation he was the furthest off that year.

[@tastypymp1287]

@@muffemod Valuation? Of what? Compared to who? I'm not taking a leap of faith on that.

[@muffemod]

@@tastypymp1287 SP500 compared to all other experts

[@tastypymp1287]

@@muffemod Please be charitable. What was his valuation? Who were the experts? What were their valuations? Again, I'm not taking a leap of faith on that.

[@andrewmarsden1970]

Bear.

[@Equitybonds24]

Sheep

[@donkalzone6671]

🐻🍻🐨

[@tastypymp1287]

Er, Giraffe? Sorry, I'm not familiar with this game.

[@shadmo8629]

I don't have a portfolio. I'm in cash and gold.

[@cyrussofficial8486]

I totally agree with what you are saying ....

[@baqirhemraj7639]

Whenever or wherever a person invests should be prepared to lose all his/her money. If you are prepared to lose all the money then invest. Having said that money in the bank depreciates due to inflation.

[@johnmonk3381]

Nobody who invests is prepared to lose all their money. That's not investing. There's another word for it called gambling 🤣

[@baqirhemraj7639]

@@johnmonk3381 Ask any person or institution who is prepared to invest money on one's behalf whether he/she will at least get the money invested, the answer is no. The fact that a person may lose all the money invested and this is a fact does it tantamount to gambling, perhaps it does. Which is better, losing a small amount of money due to inflation or losing a large amount of money through investment?

[@johnmonk3381]

@@baqirhemraj7639 the fact that people get insanely rich from investing like buffett, munger and many others completely obliterates your argument

[@baqirhemraj7639]

@@johnmonk3381 They are exceptions and they are knowledgeable and know what they are doing and have large sums of money to play around unlike any Tom, Dick and Harry. Why don't you make billions and share the money with me?

[@johnmonk3381]

@@baqirhemraj7639 okay now you are saying there are "exceptions" 🤣😆🤣😆

[@nacalle76]

What is his core portfolio, anybody follows?

[@kth6736]

One global bond etf and one global equity etf. Dont remember which ones.

[@murphymagic33]

exclusion zone ... lol

[@RogerYeahmon]

"Growth" "Currency debasement"

[@rasikvekaria6409]

Many bank go out of business dollar fall badly S&P. Going to below 3000 level What is going up Crime goes up Gold go up Foreign. Stock go up Inflation go up Oil go up Divorce go up What is go down Job market go down stock market go down Housing market go down Bond go down Crypto go down Six month later crypto Lehman. Wave effect make bit market crash Dollar go down

[@timetraveller3063]

No one knows.

[@RogerYeahmon]

Son: "Dad, I'm a gay." Ramin: "Let's look into your adoption in a bit, more, detail."

[@janeknight3597]

We are all doomed!

[@donkalzone6671]

No, its just another Monday

[@mimikhan9546]

Is it time to be Greedy?

[@rushthedj306]

Not yet