Which Characters Will Survive The Winds of Winter?

Hello everyone! Today I'm discussing every viewpoint in #asoiaf and how likely I think they are to survive the Winds of Winter.
Be sure to subscribe if you enjoyed this video! What do you think? Is there anything I missed? What do you think of #houseofthedragon so far? More #asongoficeandfire content is on the way!
Thank you all for watching! I'll be back with more theories next week! Character art in this video is by TheMico! Art in the thumbnail is by Borja Pintado (Dany art) and Cristi Balanescu (Jon art).
My Twitter: / quinnthegm
00:00 Character Deaths
01:06 Aeron Damphair
02:02 Areo Hotah
03:09 Arianne Martell
04:03 Arya Stark
04:45 Asha Greyjoy
05:34 Barristan Selmy
06:14 Bran Stark
06:26 Brienne of Tarth
07:14 Cersei Lannister
08:00 Daenerys Targaryen
08:40 Davos Seaworth
09:38 Jaime Lannister
10:23 Jon Connington
11:20 Jon Snow
11:42 Melisandre
12:19 Sansa Stark
13:06 Samwell Tarly
13:56 Theon Greyjoy
14:59 Tyrion Lannister
15:48 Victarion Greyjoy
16:42 Conclusions

[@InquisitorThomas]

The Audience will not.

[@not_averge]

Survive≠outlive

[@guyinc0gnito]

oof

[@cat8506]

⁠​⁠@@not_averge it can sometimes. e.g. "the man was survived by his wife and child"

[@not_averge]

@@cat8506 poor guy

[@elphiegleason3899]

I’ve given up hope for it being published by 2025 Yeah I was stupidly optimistic

[@blackop013]

I'm starting to doubt even George will survive Winds of Winter.

[@tylerruddy5444]

GRRM if lucky has another 15 years.

[@18pablo88]

Aye ,very very lucky ​@tylerruddy5444

[@rhinowithInternetaccess]

I still have hope for wow but i accepted that ados will never be published

[@juandirection8820]

@@tylerruddy5444 He's 75 and very obese, 15 years would be more than lucky, it would be a miracle. Probably half that is more realistic unfortunately

[@nodiggity9472]

@@juandirection8820 He's just a bit chubby.

[@thelizardking3036]

“I realised I don’t know how betting odds work.” “Davos is a coin flip for me. I put his chances at 75%.” Yeah, gambling probably isn’t your thing.

[@prieterico]

He either dies or lives, that's like a coin flip if you think about it 😭

[@jackleith3502]

His odds of survival are 50%, because he’ll either live or die 💁‍♂️

[@nickdentoom1173]

@@prieterico Davos survives, since all the hints in the book lead to him being Lightbringer.

[@freddymeisner]

“I was gonna do betting odds, but I realized I don’t know how betting odds work” lmao I love this channel

[@QuinnTheGM]

I’m afraid I’d like gambling too much so I’ve never done it

[@weetabixyeah]

@@QuinnTheGMyou only tend to like gambling if you win

[@ianmcgregor576]

@@QuinnTheGMhave you considered that its FREE money?? 🤑🤑 (I’m in the same position as you)

[@Athentus961]

@@QuinnTheGMMe too brother, me too lol

[@Cflynn2001]

@@QuinnTheGMI made betting odds for you.

[@error-err-1016]

Darkstar will become king of Westeros and marry Littlefinger (who is actually a secret Targaryen)

[@QuinnTheGM]

Many people are saying this

[@thing_under_the_stairs]

It is known.

[@user-op7ib4ye6v]

@@QuinnTheGMReally big manly people, with tears in their eyes.

[@devanman7920]

You been talking to George?

[@FREECIVVIE]

"Secret Targaryen" Many such cases.

[@louisbinns1144]

In GRRM's most shocking twist yet, he'll end up killing off the entire series, and the only survivors will be Dunk and Egg and another 3 volumes of Fire and Blood

[@jacobrichards3635]

Man I keep forgetting there’s supposed to be a book after TWOW, it’s so over

[@fletcherw32]

The man has notes, friends, trusted associates, editors. What he really lacks is a biological child to beat a dead horse. The Dreams of Spring will probably be more akin to an outline.

[@tristainmyers458]

I'm pretty sure he said somewhere that if he dies before it's over that no one can finish his work. Like not allowing anyone to ​@@fletcherw32

[@youngrootv]

@@fletcherw32yeah, it’ll be an outline or just bullet points for sure lol. ASOIAF is one of most well written fantasy stories I’ve ever read and the way GRRM writes and details things is not something that anyone else could ever do.

[@Alernategem]

@@fletcherw32ironic Martin has no heir given his body of work being mostly focused on just that. Though google has shown that he might have a step daughter, but that’s just quora so who knows how true it is.

[@aguspuig6615]

@@fletcherw32 i mean with how many dedicated fans there are, with how many actually awsome theories exist, im sure someone can actually write it, and then we can all publicly denounce it if it sucks but theres hope id say

[@gaiusgrachus322]

Imagine George kills Tyrion a quarter of the way through the book and that's why he's already finished his story.

[@QuinnTheGM]

I’d be lying if I said the possibility hadn’t occurred to me

[@SennaHawx]

And Daenerys shits herself to death at the beginning and never makes it back to Mereen, let alone Westeros

[@jessieBird96]

That would definitely put new pressure on Cersei cuz her patsy for the Valonqar prophecy would be dead.

[@MorgothBagluir]

🤣🤣

[@syndicalistcat3138]

@@SennaHawx "shits herself to death"🤣🤣🤣

[@roebuckmckinney]

I think Vic's already dead in every way that matters. When Moqorro worked on him and the POV switched from him to the crew hearing him screaming from inside his cabin, I think that was the fire wight juju taking hold. He's as dead as Beric or the Good Lady of the Riverlands, but he's just too dumb to know it.

[@tylerreis-sanford5234]

LITERALLY being too dumb to die is VERY Victarion Greyjoy of him

[@j-rey-]

The POV switch to outside the cabin is a very good point; that does sound like fire wight consciousness transfer, and reminds me of when Varamyr Sixskins's consciousness left his body in the prologue.

[@KaiHung-wv3ul]

Fire Wight consciousness/soul/juju/stuff: "This will turn you into a single-minded vessel of vengeance, completely incapable of thinking about anything outside your goal." Victarion: "Fool!! I am already all those things."

[@johnreynolds2512]

Because GRRM has confirmed that Nymeria is a Chekov's gun he's going to fire at some point, and we've repeatedly heard about the rather large wolf pack she's leading, I tend to think Arya dies and wargs into Nymeria to give her the intelligence to play a crucial role in changing the outcome of a battle or situation. It's not like GRRM to have that wolf pack just coincidentally happen to be in the right place and right time to affect an outcome.

[@Danjen3ify]

Considering that she's a skinchanger she doesn't have to die for that. Not to mention George RR Martin's wife would probably kill him if he kills off Arya.

[@j-rey-]

​​@@Danjen3ify I have heard that she, jokingly or not, said she would leave him if he killed Arya 😂. That's what makes a good story. External threats. Like Misery.

[@johnreynolds2512]

@@Danjen3ify "Away dark heart, wolf heart. I supped on grief at Summerhall, I want none of yours." Arya isn't getting a happy Dora the Explorer D&D-style ending in the books.

[@status_quo_post]

He is not a POV-Character but I think Sweetrobin will outlive everyone.

[@lank5994]

Robin I Arryn first of his name King of the Mountains and Rivers

[@devanman7920]

Nah he dead.

[@lonemotheomatshaba9640]

I would say Shireen and Rickon would too…. I feel like GRRM had a lot of time to think about it and could change his mind on them

[@status_quo_post]

@@devanman7920 the seed is strong.

[@owenbridgers]

@@lonemotheomatshaba9640 I need Rickon to actually do something

[@MeetThaNewDealer]

More importantly will GRRM survive? Given the fact that he's seventy-five years old.

[@Al4___]

Seventy-five obese man, he may release Winds but winds will never come out

[@cokelover-nb1qz]

even if he dies before hand he'll have left roughly a finished a book with a few tweaks from his editors, would likely need for someone to carry on after that and do a dream of spring but he said he didn't want that so that doubtfully getting finished.

[@duckling3615]

The problem is not that he is seventy-five, average age of death in the US is 79 and this is brought down by accidents and child mortality rates in poorer regions as well as suicide and gan violence. He is also a millionare so if he was in good health he could have many, many years left in his life dying at 90 or something. THE PROBLEM IS THAT HE IS AN OBESE MF! He should lose weight so we might get the books.

[@Danjen3ify]

@@cokelover-nb1qz He said that at one point years ago. He was probably still very confident that he'd finish the series back then.

[@achilles7607]

Damn don't kill him just yet... May he live until the age of 120 and be healthy so that he could finish the books.

[@Buford_T_Justice1]

I think my favorite character Lord Janos Slynt will survive The Winds of Winter because he has friends at court. POWERFUL FRIENDS!!! Wait what?!! NOOOOO00000oooooo!!!

[@ericregis3912]

If I am not mistaken, George was emotionally blackmailed by his wife into not killing Arya before the last book, so I would give her a 100% for TWOW. And, unless GRRM pulls some twist like Mel becoming a new Night's Queen, I don't think that she will die before the last moments of the Long Night.

[@user-op7ib4ye6v]

@@ericregis3912You can edit the first reply too. Three dots on the right.

[@ericregis3912]

@@user-op7ib4ye6v I know, but the app on my cellphone glitches when I try to do that and I am still far from my pc.

[@erys8957]

Yes she said that for both Arya and Sansa.

[@7PlayingWithFire7]

@@erys8957 wut?

[@7PlayingWithFire7]

Source?

[@dee-taylor]

I agree that Victarion will be Dany's new admiral. Grolio dying right as Victarion approaches Slaver's Bay is a pretty clear indication imo.

[@christophergirardi8145]

That would be awesome honestly

[@MadManManderly]

I was going to comment this, but you've made the point so neatly I don't need to! It's weird Dany specifically elevates Groleo to admiral with no ships, and then he is killed off (pretty much the only things which happen to him in the book). That and the recurring count of ships in the blockade during Dany's chapters echoing Victarion's count of ships in his chapters. Also, from a meta/practical point of view we will need more viewpoints around Dany/Slavers Bay. With Quentyn and probably Barristan going, we need a couple to take their places and what do you know we have Tyrion and Victarion arriving. (Although I admit this all projection as I just want to see Tyrion running rings around Victarion with the latter growing impotently angry)

[@janingvetjaland3451]

Some Meta gaming inc. I think one of the things we can take from the show is that Euron gonna side with Cercei. This might be a action because his fleet is being stolen by his brother. Or it means that Dany isnt getting any Iron Borns

[@7PlayingWithFire7]

@@janingvetjaland3451 I don't expect that to happen though. Euron is supposedly very shrewd and dangerous. There's no way he sent Victarion to Slaver's Bay without a contingency plan. It is very likely that Euron wargs into the dusky woman, to keep an eye on Vicarion. Either he expects Vicarion to fail, or he has some ace of up his sleeve or something. Surely his story isn't that he is just dumb/reckless?

[@davidillarretasolans6970]

I'm mixed on Victarion honestly. I would love if he got some sort of arc against Euron, but I just don't think he's surviving blowing the valyrian horn

[@infinitekreacher99]

What im afraid of is, GRRM changing the outcome of certain characters because of the way the show ended and how people reacted to it. I just hope Selmy lives long enough to see Danny come back, i love that old man, i bet him and Davos would be good friends 😭

[@Danjen3ify]

I don't think he's that amateurish. I also don't think there's a single character with a remotely similar ending in the books, anyway.

[@j-rey-]

​@@Danjen3ify I agree; I think he knows that everyone hated D&D's writing, not the overall plot outcomes.

[@adrianwebster6923]

⁠@@Danjen3ify The tv show used an outline created by GRRM so I expect several will have fairly similar ending. Not all but defintely several.

[@rbfilms4752]

@ I think there's a lot of animosity in the fandom toward some of the things as concepts - some fans REALLY do not like the idea of Bran being king, Dany getting together with Jon, or especially Dany transforming into a villainous character at the end. Over time, I've noticed more of these critiques sent toward George rather than the show.

[@wanderingshade8383]

I think Barristan will die, but he'll see Danny coming back in his last moments, either right before or right after the attack that kills him. Aka, I think it likely that he'll take a mortal blow, keep on fighting cause he's BARRISTAN THE FREAKING BOLD, and then see Danny flying in on Drogon and that will cause him to finally relax and let death take hold.

[@avah3643]

Personally, I don't see how GRRM can kill Theon in winds. It's too soon after that amazing, tragic, bittersweet, but ultimately hopeful, arc we got in dance. I'm not opposed to him dying in ADOS, I don't think it would work in winds. It would taint how powerful his discovery of his true self is if he died directly after. But that's just me!

[@jacobenke7936]

The North *really* wants him dead.

[@nickdentoom1173]

Actually, Davos seems the most significant if we line up all the hints in the books Davos literally came out of smoke and fire after the Battle of the Blackwater. His shadow is also described as a sword when he helps Edric Storm escape. Melisandre does also recognize a power when she proposes making shadow babies. The original Lightbringer was forged three times and Davos has been twice so far with the third (if the theory is correct) coming soon. When a sword is forged it's at the mercy of its surroundings shape by things around it. This is what Davos has been when he has been assumed dead two times (Battle of the Blackwater and when he was held by Wyman Manderly in the Wolf's Den) Assuming the trend continues Skagos is where the third reforging will take place. Also while he is being kept under Dragonstone Alester Florent says while Davos is being taken away by his brother Axell Florent: "Take the torch,” Ser Axell commanded the gaoler. “Leave the traitor to the darkness. "No,” his brother said. “Axell, please, don’t take the light… gods have mercy.” - Alester Florent Here instead of talking about the physical torch being taken away, the "light" is actually Davos. Melisandre believes that Stannis Baratheon is Azor Ahai and since Davos is the Hand of the King it is possible that since a sword is often thought of as an extension of the hand this could be talking about Davos as a metaphorical Lightbringer. This is supported by Davos's actions for Stannis such as gathering armies and commanding battles, all work done by the Hand of the King. I have personally always believed Azor Ahai Reborn is 3 people, the Prince that was Promised (Jon), the Stallion That Mounts the World (Dany) and Lightbringer (Davos), with Lightbringer having the purpose of bringing the Prince and the Stallion together to face the threats of evil, with Jon and Dany dying at the end and Lightbringer becoming the new King of Westeros, to lead them from the darkness into the light.

[@ikki6792]

Connington is most likely to die (or in this case, become a Stone Man) by the end of Winds, leaving Aegon at a vulnerable position during his takeover of King's Landing.

[@eurongreyjoy1008]

I will survive for sure

[@devanman7920]

By the time the book comes out that's not a certainty 😂

[@sblinder1978]

You're kraken up if you believe that

[@user-wf9vv8xn5e]

A finger in the bum

[@yaboipalps8616]

Bro I'm not sure we're gonna survive at the rate it's going. and neither will Martin.

[@renferal5290]

When Jon Snow died, I just knew (not having read the books), that he really wasn't dead, or would not stay dead

[@sebastian3217]

Just want you to know that you are my favourite channel since Alt Shift stopped posting regularly. I geninely look forward to your videos every week. Keep up the great work! 😄

[@DeCode343]

Areo Hotah, the camera that rides. 😂😂😂 One of the most funny things I have heard about asoiaf.

[@elijahrodriguez647]

quinn i wanted to mention that i recently found your channel, and I love everything about it. You post frequently, you keep your theories grounded as shit while only using evidence that almost everyone can agree is unbiased logical and definitive. keep it coming,i have been coping hard with the fact winds is still years away, so ive recently read the series twice and listened to it thrice in the span of a year. really sad shit, but these videos scratch that itch

[@EdgedShadow]

We have to consider the function of each character, and how the story is told through them. If Areo or Aeron are killed, for example, we'll have no way of knowing what's going on with Doran or Euron.

[@AnthonyConstable]

I like the idea of Asha dieing to save Theon. It will offer more drama and tragedy.

[@KingSlayer_.]

Asha wouldn't die to save anyone

[@AnthonyConstable]

@KingSlayer_. You are probably right. I just like the sense of loss, and of tragedy, that comes from the broken sibling being the one to live and rule (at the end). And that despite eveything, Theon works out O.K.

[@inigo137]

Why should she be the one dieing and not the other way around?

[@AnthonyConstable]

@@inigo137 The redemption arc for Theon will fall a little flat if it ends as expected.

[@hehejjdmdkfm7348]

The camera who rides lol

[@t_hetty1758]

I would love to see a vid of what you think/what you would do for winds based on what is, what came from the sample chapters and inspiration from the show.

[@garlantyrell8030]

Love this video! Another idea would be the survival chance video of some of the non pov characters. Too many to cover em all

[@stfnknbb]

Theon will live. Needs to be Theon latecomer.

[@afrophoenix3111]

Theon Leytjoyn

[@kvothethebloodless3361]

Great video, some pretty interesting opinions. Good arguments for your opinions though so have to respect that. I need to reread the books again to have relook at who I think will survive the next book but as of now I’m not totally sold on Cersei dying in TWOW. I think she’ll make it to Dream but I I dunno. She doesn’t have to be one of or the biggest the main antagonist since the books have the real psycho Euron, but if/when the Valonquar prophecy happens I think it’ll be in Dream (assuming it’s published obv). Thx for the great content!

[@ianalexander7305]

Theon at 25% is probably right considering his basically completed story like you mentioned. I like the idea of him having 1 last redeemable act outside of saving Jeyne. Potentially saving or helping Bran/Rickon getting back to WF. Obviously the saving Bran Idea is from the show but there is something there. But saving a stark children he supposedly killed as a nice emotional ring to it.

[@dtt1900]

The only ones that will survive will be: Hot Pie, The Hound (after he defeats his brother) and Brianne of Tarth. All three will meet up, Sandor and Hot Pie at the end at the "Inn at the Cross Roads". The Hound will realize that his brother, father and the Lanisters' have made him reject his sexuality. After defeating Gregor and accepts who he is, he falls in love with Hot Pie (Great striper name BTW). They travel to Dorne, rebuild the "Tower of Joy" to turn it in to the 1st gay tavern in Westeros. With Hot Pie cooking in the kitchen, Sandor Clegane (now Sandi) doing drag shows. They become very rich due to adding Brianne to the act the they do a trans version of "Don't Go Braking My Hart". For their 5th year anniversary Hot Pie builds a throne for Sandi out of large "blunt" steel...well they ain't "swords" in the conventional sense (Wink, Wink, nudge, nudge). So, Sandi who is younger and some say more attractive than Cersie and is a Valonqar sits on a Iron Throne. This is what happens when you push George RR Martin to publish more books.

[@post-leftluddite]

Davos is 100% going to make it to the end, the actor that played him gave an interview and said that GRRM "told me something he hasn't told anybody else"...and sure enough, his character made it to the end of the show. Davos is the only working class viewpoint and I think for that reason he'll be there for a while.

[@joshuagibbs2411]

Really really love your vids!

[@Danjen3ify]

There's no way Bran is going to end up as King of the Seven Kingdoms, in my opinion. Nothing in his arc is setting up for that, and there's no way the Lords of Westeros is going to elect a child to become king. He might become a weirwood king beyond the Wall, but not King of Westeros. This is the kind of stupid subversions we might expect from Benioff and Weiss, not George RR Martin. Jon Snow's arc, on the other hand, has been building towards that end from the start. It's predictable, sure, but a smart author knows when to subvert expectations, and when not to.

[@mcfleury]

Great video, the only one I kind of disagree with is Tyrion, as like you said he’s just making more and more enemies and I could see that catching up with him. Then again, he’ll probably survive for George reasons.

[@QuinnTheGM]

I’m more partial to the Alt Shift X Theory that he’ll lose his tongue rather than die

[@thecockerel86]

​@@QuinnTheGMAs his brother lost his sword hand

[@shinken6636]

he already went through an arc of humilty by seing Penny and her brother and how they had to live compared to himself and being enslaved, losing a tongue would make him virtually useless to everyone and to the plot, Jaime works because he lost his skill but had wits, if Tyrion cant have wits he wont have any other skill, its to big of a crplling to be done before the end.

[@shinken6636]

he also already lost his nose wich could be as a way to replace this sort of plot point, intensifying his previous issue instead of adding another one that would make him too useless to work as a character that moves the plot, a mute dwarf would just be there like an Areo Hotah at best

[@justtheboysboppin]

Another spectacular video

[@djmikio]

Martin's wife Parris famously threatened him with "consequences" if either of the Stark girls died. The general assumption was this was based on her friendship with the young actors who played them on HBO but it was never spelled out if the book characters are now wearing "dinner and booty access" plot armor.

[@tuulenkoti]

'If Arya died before the final book' I believe

[@omarpineda57]

I know most people didn't like the show much but the davos and John duo was one of my favorites and I hope it sticks. Just love the dude can't wait for my dreams to get crushed.

[@antihmota4625]

I really think Theon has more than 70% likelihood of survival. I absolutely dont think that his arc is concluded, since at the end of his sample chapter, we learn that bloodraven (or bran) need him for something important. I think theon is gonna die at the end of series, but honestly I think he is gonna be pivotal character in defeat of Others (if they gonna lose). Plus it would be too on the nose killing Theon PRECISELY as George written in sample chapter at the beggining of next book. Asha is far likely to die, she has less narative purpose, but tbh I dont think any of them are going to die. At least at the battle of ice. I dont think the fight with Others gonna take place in WoW but in DoS.

[@dyeager152]

As always awesome videos

[@cathal9176]

Drogo will return as an undead Valyrian Steel mega-zord with razor sharp wheels & he will cut a bloody path through Westeros to sample Hot Pie's wares

[@noahmarshall873]

I strongly disagree about Cersei. She's almost certainly going to be killed by either Jaime, Tyrion, or Arya, and none are in the position to get to her within the length of the book. I imagine she'll be part of the "scouring of the shire" type event that George has (I think) hinted at before so while she'll definitely die it won't be until much later. Also, I personally believe that Jaime and Cersei's belief that they'll die together just as they were born together will come true, with Jaime killing Cersei and quickly being killed for it (probably by the Mountain). Since Jaime's story isn't quite ready to wrap up in Winds I don't think Cersei can die either

[@haydon-ge8dt]

I think Bran being king is possibly going to change. In God emperor of dune, He dies. and the whole downloading the wear wood thing is too much like the spice memories. He may be king, but that is really not a good idea. It would be one thing if he was an adult or even interesting. In dune, he his super human and almost immortal capable of betting anyone in fight and laser gun proof. The war culture followed him for that reason. Bran can't defend himself. Other than being a warg, and he's a child, something that everyone doesn't want to be ruled by in asoiaf. It is better to be a sacred green seer than a king

[@jacobenke7936]

Yes. He'd make a very solid council member, but not King.

[@Mallarkey]

I can't help drawing similarities between Samwell Tarly and Samwise Gamgee. His ability to endure, his faithfulness and of course the feeling that he's going to survive to write (or finish) the books that come down through history to us, along with GRRM's admiration of JRRT. Even the name feels like a nod to Sam, with the same syllable pattern. 🤔

[@OtherWorldAmbience]

This was a fun video. Would you be able to do this for the main non-pov characters?

[@lazloholt262]

If bloodraven takes over Brans body, I don't think it's accurate to say that bran survives. It would be bloodraven surviving and then potentially becoming king of westeros if that is supposed to be "brans" fate

[@Danjen3ify]

More likely Bloodraven will die when the Others are defeated and Bran will return to normal.

[@Adaman135]

Bran is there to take his place. Not in the tree but in his ability. Bloodraven is dead, the children are nearly gone. They need Bran to continue the fight against the walkers.

[@jacobenke7936]

That is, legit, the ONLY way King Bran makes any degree of sense.

[@luminyam6145]

That was great, thank you.

[@ThommyofThenn]

Something i've wondered for a while: is there a name for this art style? 4:47 for example. There are portraits for almost every asoiaf character done in this fashion. Is it just normal digital artwork that happens to look similar to other or does this have a name?

[@tacticaldroid133]

Victarion Greyjoy marries Cersei Lannister and they live happily ever after with their grey scale treated friend Jon Connington.

[@Lolpy.]

Good to see another Jon Connington fan. Hell yeah.

[@user-op7ib4ye6v]

Asha has to survive because there is nobody else who can take over the rule of the Ironborn after both Euron and Victarion die. And they will totally definitely die. Aeron too, of course. He will probably take Euron with him in some way. Besides that Asha is such a cool and decent, but also capable character it doesnt make any sense to invent stuff just to kill her. Queen of the Ironborn! Or whatever is left of them. - When you think about it, having Asha as the Queen is probably going to be the only thing saving them from further retribution in the future. Theon is totally going to die. Probably during some kind of redeeming sacrifice. He is a destroyed character. there is no other path left for him. He may be remembering who he was but he is broken. There is no coming back from what he had done and things done to him. Arya will survive and will not turn into a complete psycho killer. It seems to me you are confusing the horrible tv show version with the real Arya. She will not finish her training and become a full Faceless M... err... woman for three huge reasons. First one is because she never loses who she is, even after all the horrors she survived, and the Second is there is no time for the full training, because Martin didnt manage to find that five year gap excuse - which is great actually. The third reason is Daenerys is coming and Arya will get swept along, or join the fleet on her own, with skills she did pick up in the temple, and return to the Seven Kingdoms - and there will be a reunion, and truth which will help her turn away from becoming a full psycho killer. -edit- And a huge ball of fur who has been connecting with her all this time she has to meet again. Sansa will also live. And she is the one Stark child who will get reunited with Catelyn before that chance is lost. Shadrick the mad mouse will bring the word to the Brotherhood, and Jaime, Brienne, and a silent big Monk will make it happen. Littlefinger will die in some really, really horrible way. May Others take him. Barristan Selmy is going to live. If he meets his end it will be in Westeros, when Daenerys comes back. Probably fighting the Others. I find the idea of Selmy dying or tuning against Daenerys to be one of the most ridiculous, absurd and completely nonsensical theories that exist. And the only motivation for claiming it is a cheap nihilistic twist of "another good characters dies!" crap. One of the main roles he still has to fulfill is a talk with Daenerys about her family and rebellion. Barristan the Bold is not going anywhere. Both Stannis and Melisandre will die, of course. There is no way they survive the Winds. Stannis will defeat the Boltons, Melisandre still has a important role to play on the Wall, but after that... gone. Stannis is too rigid and stubborn to accept Daenerys so having him in the game would necessitate another bloody war - at the worst moment, as the Long Night is coming and all shit breaks loose. I believe he will be killed by Others after the Wall falls and armies of dead sweep over the North. Could be a battle at Winterfell where Stannis and maybe Melisandre hold the tide for a few precious moments. Jaime lives through the whole Song. His story will not end with Cersei, and she dies in Winds, of course. Tyrion ... eehhh... dunno. There should be another big change coming to him as he tags along with Daenerys, because he is supposed to find Tysha which was practically confirmed by Martin. He cant just stay like he is now, that would not make any sense to reduce that character to a nihilistic piece of shit and leave it at that. Brienne lives. There is just no talking about it. Daenerys will of course live and survive the Long Night. She wont turn into a craaaaazy bitch at all. She will not take the Throne. She will burn it down and basically end the united Seven Kingdoms - after the Long Night - and i hope she will get to live on Dragonstone. Collecting the remaining Targs and half Targs, taking care of the surviving Dragons... and see what happens. Even Aegon could survive, and so unite the whole Targ family back together and end the Blackfyre civil war. Neither him or Jon needs to marry Daenerys. Can we fing stop marrying Daenerys all the fing time? Dorne will unite with Aegon... and those characters will mostly survive. Darkstar needs a killing, thats something everyone agrees on. Its a pointless character introduced too late to the story and in a rather bad way. He may have an act or two to play and then its the AXE! Arianne will be the new Queen of Dorne. Who else, really? Oh, also the ... blue beard Dario. Dead. Totally and completely dead and gone. Davos lives. Samwell lives. Bran of course should live, but i hope he wont end as a tree, or a crippled Greenseer and will walk again. With all the magic going around it should not be impossible he could get his legs back. Who will save him from the tree? Daenerys of course. When the wall falls the Dragons will be able to fly North and,- edit; deal with that whole issue of Others, Bloodraven and the tress and all that. etc.

[@theeagleofbavaria]

I think the stone winged beast flying from a tower in Daenerys’ visions could be Jon Connington jumping from the High Tower or something as he has greyscale and his sigil is made of two griffins.

[@akechijubeimitsuhide]

I have the feeling Asha will survive the series. Someone with common needs to lead the Ironborn after Euron's shenanigans, and she's far more mentally stable (and capable of having heirs) than Theon. On the other hand I don't think Theon dies too early or gets sacrificed. His death should certainly be meaningful to complete his arc (and he should at least outlive Ramsay).

[@antihmota4625]

Like I said in my comment, I think theon death will be pivotal in the battle with Others

[@philipnorman7713]

Excellent video

[@erikvina3587]

Vic is a goner. He is destined for the flames, either by Moqorro or by Dany's dragons.

[@jacobenke7936]

Agreed. Aurane for Master of Ships!

[@ashleyofnaath]

I know he's not a viewpoint character, but I rest easy knowing Stannis and Daenerys' fates are intertwined. Dany was forecasted to meet him in the House of the Undying, and given that she's unlikely to make it to Westeros until the end of Winds or beginning of Dream, Stannis is guaranteed to last at least that long. As is she. And unless Stannis retreats to Dragonstone, I don't think they even meet right away when Dany gets to Westeros. So yeah; I'm happy lol.

[@thewerdna]

Jon should have gotten a negative score corresponding to his chances to un-not-survive the next book

[@rexblade504]

Would GRRM have Bran become king even though the entire fanbase rejected him after he became King in the show? That's like if Tolkien made Frodo King of Gondor

[@jacobenke7936]

Yeah, as the show laid it out, Bran as king made no sense unless Bran was evil and manipulating everyone. The way Bran had Sam tell Jon the truth on the eve of battle was very clearly emotional manipulation on both Bran and Sam's parts.

[@rei2684]

When I read a song of ice and fire I kinda always felt that Sansa will not survive the series till the end, I see her surviving kinda winds of winter but don't know always felt she was going to die

[@a.a677]

I'm praying for Daenerys to survive so hard.

[@jzmn0033]

😦..... I am NOT ready to say bye to Cersei! But I think you're right omg

[@eglantinepapeau1582]

He better not do Jon dirty the way D&D did him dirty

[@stormnation8910]

I sincerely believe that the majority of the delay on the winds of winter comes from the fact that a lot of George’s ideas for TWOW were put in season 7 and 8 of the TV show and it was clearly not embraced by the fans 😂

[@jacksparrow9227]

Barristan better survive the entire series since he wants to die by the sword and instead dies of old age 20 years after Spring

[@Nalhirrim]

If Stannis dies, I close the book.

[@Ducky-vl7mp]

Can't close the book if the book never comes out

[@GodKingReiss]

I feel like Stannis will survive the battle of ice and kick the Boltons’ collective asses, but when the Long Night starts he’ll be the first line of defense and get absolutely wiped. This’ll probably be when he burns Shireen too. Sacrificing your own daughter (while always horrible) is a lot more of an understandable reaction to the unholy army of the damned marching on you from all sides instead of “ouch oof those twenty good men got us good ;(“

[@igorlopes7589]

​@@GodKingReiss How dare you slander Ser Twenty Goodman! He is a very strong soldier

[@girthking6429]

What if he gets reanimated as a wight?

[@s_.777]

@@GodKingReissi always see stannis fans who read the books say how stannis would never burn his daughter. why is that?

[@Seelenverheizer]

I think the main part is whether or not we see the first battle to kick of the long night or not. I feel like there might be a good chance that the finale of winds is a crusing deafed against the night king and if so this will kill multiple POV. Then for spring I would expect around half way beeing the final battle and the rest is us seeing the fallout and aftermath. Imagine how sick winds would be if like the last 5 or 6 chapters beeing one death after another. Also perfect cliffhanger matgerial for the second to last book.

[@pacoramon9468]

Sir Pounce will save Tommen and take over the 9 Kingdoms.

[@ThommyofThenn]

No man can fight against the Darkstar, because he is of the Night. Therefore, he is an extremely fast swordsman who can probably teleport behind his enemies

[@arandomguysshh8614]

im gonna have to disagree on the books will follow the same order of events as the show ,the books keep telling us the throne doesn’t matter ,we reminded every time that winter is coming for 5 books and that the others are the real threat.the show stripped down all fantasy elements therefore the climax was in the south .that won’t be the case for books .in the original outline the structure was war of the 5 kings ,dany’s invasion & the invasion of the others that is still the structure.

[@michaelbayer5094]

If we believe that the last 2 books are eagly awaited and they will sell incredibly well, then we must believe that there is a plan to have them written and published. I hope someone at HarperCollins has worked this out with George and his family to avoid the chaos that occurred after Steig Larson's death. Whatever that future is, I hope George has taken on an apprentice or 2 to assist him so these works can be completed.

[@wms1983wms]

Where's that map of the Stormlands/Crownlands shown during Arianne from?

[@niallgaffney2475]

Can I suggest a video: How far south do you think the dead will reach in the books? Could we see the Crannógmen fight them in the swamps? And could they come swarming out of the Neck to attack the South? Fingers crossed for a Long Night that lasts longer than 1 night 😅

[@kennyhudson9201]

Does it really make sense for it to last long? I mean eventually the living can't run and eventually the dead will arrive at whatever castle or stronghold they hide in. Then they fight. How long does any fight when one side will throw its forces forward continuously until you kill them all or they kill you all? It's not like the dead need respite. And I think fight at Winterfell, then run, then fight at Moat Caitlin, then run, then fight at King's Landing, is unrealistic. They can't run once the battle starts with the undead the way they can with a living army.

[@blackeyedlily]

I still believe Dany’s story ends in some sort of sacrificial death that will free the Wights from their thrall to the Others, due to her huge emphasis on freeing slaves. And they are locked into eternal slavedom.

[@dugilee4236]

My favorite theory for the reason behind the delays is that George RR Martin has actually finished both 'The Winds of Winter' and 'A Dream of Spring.' Given Martin's chaotic characteristic, I can totally see him finishing those two books but never actually publishing them until his death. It's within his character to do so. He's extremely wealthy and has all the money he needs for life. Unlike other writers who may need to churn out books regularly to make ends meet, Martin doesn't rely on book sales for income. Therefore, I believe it's plausible that he's chosen to withhold publication until a later time.

[@stefankatsarov5806]

That is some massive amount of cope. The guy has aways released everything he has the moment it is finished. He himself gas said many times that he isnt ready and is baerly writing the book. ( That dosnt stop him from writing other books tho ). Ge just either dosnt whant to write it or has hit a wall.

[@dugilee4236]

​@@stefankatsarov5806I am fully convinced that the most likely scenario is that he hasn't finished the book yet. But also, if you're the author who wants to publish the book upon his death, I think it's hilarious to say that he's still writing it for as long as possible, when fans have been waiting for it for 12 years. If he is, he's probably one of the biggest jokesters of all time. I know you're probably right

[@kennyhudson9201]

I really hope this is the lie they tell us, so that everyone will just accept the ending Sanderson writes instead of complaining forever and claiming its fan fiction like they do with the show, despite it being the only medium where we will ever get an ending while the author is still alive.

[@Lord_Taron_Texas]

There are 3 Characters who do Not have my Permission to Die..... Victarion....Jon Connington....damphair!! They must all three last as long as possible to the end

[@gershomtan5879]

Valar morghulis.

[@Lord_Taron_Texas]

@@gershomtan5879 valar dohaeris

[@The_magpie_dude]

What do you put Stannis Baratheon's chances at? Great video

[@QuinnTheGM]

I’d say 25%

[@spork3858]

Uhmm you forgot Quentyn! He's alive! Trust me! Dont worry, such a silly little accident can happen!

[@tylerbrozhak9140]

I am not convinced that Barristan will die in the battle of the fire. I honestly believe he will betray Daenerys out of love. When he learns that Aegon is alive (or someone pretending to be him), he will probably find himself in a moral dilemma that will cause him to leave Dany's side.

[@scoobyrds]

3:33 what on earth is that gorgeous map? Looks like someone's future-/alternative-history Westeros.

[@nisimbn96]

Gud vid ser, has my 10s outa 10

[@user-ui6ze8cw4t]

I know George doesn’t want someone else to finish the series but do you think the publishers would pull a fast one and have someone else finish it? I hope we get winds but am very very doubtful we get anything else.

[@Nlwalker487]

I feel like George has a lot of time for Bran not to become king. He's a gardener not an architect lol

[@jacobenke7936]

In a massive plot twist, the door Hodor holds will be a door in the Red Keep when everyone is coming to kill Bran.

[@Nlwalker487]

@@jacobenke7936 Love that

[@CJusticeHappen21]

What if Jaime gets Beric'd? They made a whole point about how he was bound to Catelyn's service.

[@miramarjonas6934]

I think arienne is going to die in winds, every martel that leaves dorne dies, and dies fast

[@themissingpeace7956]

GRR Martin is going to kick the bucket before he finishes his books…

[@theteenspirit]

On the fanshow Thronecast during the final season, one of the theories put forward was that Arya would kill Jaime/find him dead and take his face. Return to Cersei and use the trust to get close and mark another name off her list. It didn't happen in the series but I could see GRRM going for it

[@SouthJerseyGhost77]

Martin isn’t even gonna finish the series he’ll die or his wife will and he’ll fall into depression and retire. The guy screwed himself over with the show and all this other shit instead of just getting to work writing. The two people who helped write fire and blood and world of ice and fire will have to finish it and just go off what the story leads to instead of how George’s would let the characters naturally end up where they are. There’s going to be at least 3 different kinds of endings and the one we expect to happen will be underwhelming because we’ve theorized it for almost the past 20 years….he’s a pos and grifter….lead us all on for years lying to his fan base and now since the show ended we all the basics of the rest of the story even the non die hards, when we deserved something we probably didn’t see coming or didn’t expect. I try to have hope but odds are against it.

[@Seelenverheizer]

i think it will be more of a case where the assistant might know the story beeds and some actually good writter will have to do the work. The assistant are pretty shiat writters not gonna lie.

[@HerbCoswellBornAgain]

For the King Bran, I actually do think it will be much better executed in the books, as I believe the council that decides who will be King I personally believe will be closer to the election King Jaehearys gave at Harrenhal all those years ago that led to Viserys being King (Rhaenryas dad, not Danys brother, I know I shouldn't have to make that clear, but a part of me still wanted to just in case). I also believe Bran will use his abilites to manipulate the votes so he will be made king, with Nature, The Weirwood, and the Children of the Forest retaking Westeros through the God (Fisher) King Bran. If he will even still be Bran by the end of the series. Yep, I think GRRM is going to go full Dune/Warhammer 40K.

[@patrickhenry1249]

I’m hoping that picture at the start means I’m not the only one who uses sticky notes while reading these books 😂 I did it to read the boiled leather chapter order, and so I could go back and read anything that felt relevant during a future chapter to go back and reference.

[@Cflynn2001]

Betting odds set by me knowing how betting works. For those who don’t bet the favorable odds for example are written as -100 and unfavorable odds are written as +100. Favorable odds is how much you have to win if you bet $100 and unfavorable odds is how much you win if you bet $100. Aeron Greyjoy: +900 Aero Hotan:+150 Arianne Martell: -300 Arya Stark: -1900 Ser Barristan: +1329 Bran Stark: You can’t get odds bc that’s too high. Lady Brienne: -567 Cersei: +300 Dany: -1900 Davos: -300 Jaime: +100 Connington: -186 Jon snow (Ik you gave him 0% but I’m gonna change the odds to 50% just to give George leeway on when to bring him back if he even does.); +100 Mel: +186 Sansa: -9900 Sam: -900 Theon: +300 Tyrion: -9900 Victarion: +150 I did use a link to do these calculations. Probability to American betting odds converter.

[@leobohnacker3634]

Can you please make a video with non view point characters?

[@WillowGardener]

I guessed almost every percentage correctly, so apparently we're in agreement lol

[@Methus3lah]

THE NIGHT KING WAS SUPPOSED TO BE RESURRECTED JON I WILL DIE ON THIS HILL

[@joew7854]

There is way too much unfulfilled foreshadowing in Jon’s story for that to be the case

[@Wulfy013]

Going to be real with you: I honestly don't think the Fisher King ending (Bran is king) makes any sense at this point. Like, is George's argument going to be "The only good leader is effectively an omniscient being who interferes as little as possible because everything is working out?" Given Bran's arc, I see how that would be good. But GRRM is an atheist, and having your world view be that the ruler should be a God-King, literally (if similar to show Bran is essentially a bland avatar of the Old Gods (I guess??)), that is really uninspiring. I really want Bran to be more interesting, and almost any method of putting him on the throne would be uninspired. And the messaging would seem confusing. I hope that GRRM's style has pushed him away from that original ending (and I believe he intended that outcome at the start) to something that is more inline with where characters have gone and what seems to make sense.

[@jeffwhite5007]

If Rickon gets a pov chapter in winds, I think that would be Davos' death nail.

[@jacobenke7936]

Let's be honest, Rickon is basically a wildling at this point, and it's entirely possible that they borderline worship him on Skagos. He's a Shaggydog, there as a way to keep Davos alive when Stannis dies.

[@reidcacaro2919]

Should have given us the odds of actually seeing winds of winter. I would say the same for dreams of spring but let’s be real it will be an actual miracle if we see that.

[@TheDrexxus]

Insert the meme image of the black guy smiling and pointing to his head. Caption: "Everybody survives if you don't finish the book."